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FloodGate v1: live mode, 3D replay, Beam and Opus runs

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README.md ADDED
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1
+ ---
2
+ license: mit
3
+ pretty_name: FloodGate v1
4
+ tags: [rl-environment, openenv, flood-control, water-resources, operations-research, benchmark, beam]
5
+ configs:
6
+ - config_name: tasks
7
+ data_files: tasks/flood-v1-sample/tasks.jsonl
8
+ ---
9
+
10
+ # FloodGate v1: Cumberland River flood control on the real 2025 floods
11
+
12
+ Tasks, data and every model run for [FloodGate](https://huggingface.co/spaces/bpHigh/FloodGate). The task: run the
13
+ U.S. Army Corps' four flood-control dams above Nashville through the February and April 2025 floods. The code is MIT.
14
+ All data are U.S. federal works in the public domain (USACE, USGS, NOAA NWS); NWS products come via the Iowa
15
+ Environmental Mesonet archive.
16
+
17
+ | path | what |
18
+ |---|---|
19
+ | `tasks/flood-v1-sample/tasks.jsonl` | 24 tasks around 13-16 February and 1-4 April 2025, in three tiers: the record, a storm 1.5 times bigger, lakes starting half full. Each holds the dams, gauges, inflows and local runoff per 6-hour step, the travel times, and the reference (LP optimum and its plan, baselines, the Corps' real releases) |
20
+ | `data/basin.json` | the dams' official pool levels and release limits, the gauges' NWS flood categories and ratings, the travel times |
21
+ | `data/record.csv.gz` | the curated record, Jan-Jun 2025, 6-hour steps: dam releases, storage and pool elevations, gauge flows |
22
+ | `data/forecasts.csv.gz` | the 9,540 river-forecast values the NWS Ohio River Forecast Center issued for Burkesville, Celina and Nashville in Jan-Jun 2025 (stage, and flow through the NWS rating) |
23
+ | `data/SOURCE.md` | every rule and number, as real, derived or assumed |
24
+ | `runs/<run>/index.json` | every episode: reward, grade, the submitted plan (plan mode) or the commits (live mode), tokens, time |
25
+ | `runs/<run>/board.md` | the run's board |
26
+ | `runs/live-baselines-24h.md` | live mode's policies without a model: scenario-optimal 1.000, a perfect solver on the mean forecast 0.552, one scenario 0.444, hold 0.215 |
27
+
28
+ ## Results
29
+
30
+ | model | live mode | plan mode |
31
+ |---|---:|---:|
32
+ | Claude Opus 5.5 (effort high) | 0.596 (10 tasks) | 0.977 (24) |
33
+ | Beam-1.0-501B-A23B (default effort) | 0.236 (24) | 0.402 (3) |
34
+ | Beam-1.0-501B-A23B (reasoning_effort high) | 0.237 (24) | - |
35
+
36
+ ## Grading
37
+
38
+ - **Plan mode:** reward = 0.2 + 0.8·exp(−ρ/0.25), where ρ = (cost − optimum) / (lazy − optimum). Plans that break a
39
+ rule score below 0.2.
40
+ - **Live mode:** ρ = Σ regret / Σ (the lazy operator's regret). Each decision's regret is its expected extra cost over
41
+ the scenario-optimal decision, from a two-stage stochastic LP over the 8 scenarios.
42
+ - **Both are deterministic, with no LLM judge.**
43
+
44
+ <img src="assets/replay_beam_live.webp" alt="FloodGate 3D replay: Beam's live-mode plan with Nashville in major flood" width="100%">
assets/replay_beam_live.webp ADDED

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assets/replay_optimum.webp ADDED

Git LFS Details

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  • Pointer size: 131 Bytes
  • Size of remote file: 122 kB
data/SOURCE.md ADDED
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1
+ # Sources: the Cumberland River record (January-June 2025)
2
+
3
+ All sources are works of the U.S. federal government (public domain). `envs/flood_ops/tools/curate_cumberland.py`
4
+ fetches them, caches the raw responses in `raw/` (git-ignored), and writes `basin.json` and `record.csv.gz`.
5
+
6
+ ## Real (the record)
7
+
8
+ | what | where | series |
9
+ |---|---|---|
10
+ | dam release, cfs (hourly mean) | USACE CWMS Data API, office LRN | `<dam>.Flow.Ave.1Hour.1Hour.man-rev` |
11
+ | dam storage, acre-feet (hourly) | same | `<dam>.Stor.Inst.1Hour.0.man-rev` |
12
+ | pool elevation, ft (hourly) | same | `<dam>.Elev-Pool.Inst.1Hour.0.man-rev` |
13
+ | top and bottom of the flood pool, top of the inactive pool | CWMS location levels | `<loc>.Stor.Inst.0.Top of Flood` etc. J. Percy Priest's bottom of flood pool is seasonal: 483 ft to 21 March, 490.5 ft from 21 April to 9 October |
14
+ | flow at Burkesville KY | USGS 03414100 (Water Data OGC API) | discharge, 00060 |
15
+ | flow at Nashville TN | USGS 03431500 | discharge, 00060 |
16
+ | stage at Celina TN | USGS 03417500 | gage height, 00065 (no discharge is published) |
17
+ | flood categories, stage-flow ratings | NOAA NWPS, gauges BRKK2, CLAT1, NAST1 | action / minor / moderate / major |
18
+
19
+ Dams: WLCK2-WOLF_CREEK, DLHT1-DALE_HOLLOW, CEHT1-CENTER_HILL, JPHT1-J_PERCY_PRIEST.
20
+
21
+ Flood thresholds used (flow, cfs):
22
+
23
+ | gauge | action | minor | moderate | major | from |
24
+ |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
25
+ | Burkesville (BRK) | 32,500 | 40,000 | 57,500 | 90,000 | NWS published flows |
26
+ | Celina (CEL) | 52,006 | 76,030 | 91,010 | 110,011 | NWS stages 30/40/45/50 ft through the NWS rating |
27
+ | Nashville (NAS) | 70,072 | 119,465 | 128,065 | 154,611 | NWS stages 30/40/42/45 ft through the NWS rating |
28
+
29
+ Gaps: the hourly series are complete except Celina (85 hours) and Nashville (3 hours), filled by linear
30
+ interpolation (`basin.json`, `gap_hours_filled`).
31
+
32
+ | river forecasts NWS issued, Jan-Jun 2025 (live mode) | Ohio River Forecast Center products RVFCMU and RVFCML, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's NWS text archive (`mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py`) | SHEF `.ER ... HGIFF` stage forecasts, 6-hourly to about 5 days, at BRKK2 (30 issues), CLAT1 (219), NAST1 (228); turned into flow through the NWS ratings; `forecasts.csv.gz` (`tools/curate_forecasts.py`) |
33
+
34
+ | the 3D replay's map: terrain, rivers, reservoirs | USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEPElevation ImageServer); USGS National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus small-scale flowlines and waterbodies); dam locations from CWMS, gauge locations from NWPS | `openenv/flood_openenv/web/twin/basin.json.gz` (`tools/twin/build_basin.py`); display only, never in a cost |
35
+
36
+ ## Derived
37
+
38
+ - **6-hour steps (UTC):** mean release and flow over the step; storage and elevation at its start.
39
+ - **Dam inflow** I[t] = R[t] + (S[t+1] − S[t]) / 0.49587, from the record's own mass balance. It is noisy where the
40
+ storage record is (it can be negative for a step).
41
+ - **Local runoff at a gauge** L[t] = Q[t] − Σ routed record releases. With these two definitions the Corps' own
42
+ releases reproduce the record's storage and gauge flows exactly (`core/tests/test_core.py`).
43
+ - **Travel times** (hours), from cross-correlating 24-hour-smoothed hourly changes in the 2025 record, reach by reach:
44
+
45
+ | reach | lag |
46
+ |---|---:|
47
+ | Wolf Creek → Burkesville | 10 |
48
+ | Burkesville → Celina | 8 |
49
+ | Celina → Cordell Hull (pool) | 0 |
50
+ | Cordell Hull → Old Hickory | 6 |
51
+ | Old Hickory → Nashville | 2 |
52
+ | Center Hill → Old Hickory | 16 |
53
+ | J. Percy Priest → Nashville | 2 |
54
+
55
+ Dale Hollow's releases are too steady to identify. Its 7.3 miles to the Cumberland use the 3.5 mph measured below
56
+ Wolf Creek (2 h). The sums give the dam-to-gauge lags in `basin.json`. A fractional lag is split linearly between
57
+ two 6-hour steps.
58
+ - **Maximum release:** the largest hourly release in the 2018-2025 record. WC 59,900, DH 10,100 and CH 25,300 (all
59
+ February 2019), JPP 14,900 (February 2020).
60
+ - **Ramp:** the 99.9th percentile of the change between consecutive 6-hour mean releases, 2018-2025, rounded: WC
61
+ 18,000, DH 4,500, CH 10,000 and JPP 5,000 cfs per step.
62
+ - **Storage → elevation tables:** from the hourly record plus the official levels. Used for display only.
63
+
64
+ - **Forecast errors (live mode):** for each issued forecast, the log ratio of forecast to observed flow, lead by
65
+ lead (observed = the mean of the two 6-hour steps around the valid time). 214 Celina and 222 Nashville forecasts
66
+ reach 5 days. The spread grows from 0.09 (Celina) and 0.13 (Nashville) at 0-12 h to 0.38 and 0.36 at 108-120 h.
67
+ The bias falls to -0.26 and -0.19 at 108-120 h.
68
+ - **Forecast scenarios (live mode):** each of the 8 members replays one issued forecast's whole error path,
69
+ multiplied into the true series (positive values only).
70
+ - Upper-basin series take Celina's path: Wolf Creek and Dale Hollow inflow, Burkesville and Celina local flow.
71
+ - Lower-basin series take the Nashville path from the product issued closest in time.
72
+ - There are no forecasts at the four storage lakes, so their inflows borrow the nearest gauge's error.
73
+ - Leads beyond 5 days keep the 5-day error.
74
+ - Members are seeded by task and decision.
75
+
76
+ ## Assumed (modelling choices)
77
+
78
+ - Cordell Hull and Old Hickory are run-of-river: their pool changes are part of the local runoff.
79
+ - Minimum release 0 cfs. In April 2025 Wolf Creek released 20 cfs for three days.
80
+ - The cost weights (README) and the 6-hour decision step.
81
+ - Drawn tiers, labelled in the task text:
82
+ - `storm`: runoff above the week-before baseflow multiplied by 1.5, at the dams and at the gauges;
83
+ - `full`: every lake starts with half its flood pool in use.
84
+ - Plan mode: the agent knows the window's inflows and runoff exactly (hindsight). Live mode replaces that with the
85
+ forecast scenarios above.
86
+ - Live mode: the spill penalty (100 per 1,000 acre-feet per step above the top of the flood pool or below the
87
+ inactive pool), 24-hour decision blocks, 8 scenarios.
data/basin.json ADDED
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+ {
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+ "name": "Cumberland River above Nashville",
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+ "office": "USACE Nashville District (LRN)",
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+ "step_hours": 6,
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+ "start_utc": "2025-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
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+ "steps": 724,
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+ "dams": [
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+ {
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+ "id": "WC",
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+ "name": "Wolf Creek Dam (Lake Cumberland)",
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+ "river": "Cumberland River, mile 460.9",
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+ "cwms": "WLCK2-WOLF_CREEK",
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+ "storage_af": {
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+ "top_of_flood": 6089000.0,
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+ "bottom_of_flood": 3995000.0,
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+ "top_of_inactive": 1853000.0
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+ },
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+ "elev_ft": {
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+ "Top of Flood": 760.0,
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+ "Bottom of Flood": 723.0,
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+ "Top of Inactive": 673.0
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+ },
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+ "max_release_cfs": 59900,
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+ "min_release_cfs": 0,
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "id": "DH",
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+ "name": "Dale Hollow Dam (Dale Hollow Lake)",
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+ "river": "Obey River, 7.3 miles above the Cumberland",
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+ "cwms": "DLHT1-DALE_HOLLOW",
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+ "storage_af": {
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runs/2026-10-31-beam-live-24/board.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ # 2026-10-31-beam-live-24
2
+
3
+ | model | n | mean reward (95% CI) | real | storm | full | feasible | solved | beat rule | median rho | no submit | out tokens/ep |
4
+ |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
5
+ | hf:reflection/Beam-1.0-501B-A23B:baseten | 24 | **0.236** (0.217-0.261) | 0.226 | 0.263 | 0.219 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1.040 | 0 | 34,662 |
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runs/live-baselines-24h.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ # Live-mode policies, 24 tasks, 24-hour blocks
2
+
3
+ | policy | mean reward | real | storm | full | median rho | realised cost (mean) |
4
+ |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
5
+ | stochastic | **1.000** | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3,071 |
6
+ | mean | **0.552** | 0.517 | 0.504 | 0.636 | 0.192 | 3,011 |
7
+ | median_member | **0.444** | 0.462 | 0.368 | 0.503 | 0.291 | 3,115 |
8
+ | truth | **0.570** | 0.521 | 0.575 | 0.614 | 0.179 | 2,932 |
9
+ | hold | **0.215** | 0.215 | 0.215 | 0.215 | 1.000 | 14,791 |
runs/pilot-opus-cli/board.md ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ # pilot-opus-cli
2
+
3
+ | model | n | mean reward (95% CI) | real | storm | full | feasible | solved | beat rule | median rho | no submit | out tokens/ep |
4
+ |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
5
+ | claude-cli:claude-opus-5-5@high | 1 | **0.846** (0.846-0.846) | 0.846 | - | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.053 | 0 | 62,900 |
runs/pilot-opus-cli/index.json ADDED
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+ {
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tasks/flood-v1-sample/manifest.json ADDED
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1
+ {
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tasks/flood-v1-sample/tasks.jsonl ADDED
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