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X
4.2
4.2
4
293
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Train
yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. that was kind of my transition.
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N
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Train
i still do some politics on facebook and stuff, but honestly it's more and more... i struggle because...
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S
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... is it really worth it at the end of the day? is it? and i mean...
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yeah, i know. i was like just, "come on." just ranting and raving before we started recording.
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H
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this is what life is. just a hot sweaty mess all the time. so i'm kind of used to it, but...
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H
4.8
5.4
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293
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Train
well, there were a couple of cool things that happened before we wrap up here and there are a couple of cool...
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N
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293
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Train
what happened recently actually is my wife kia went down to mythcon in milwaukee, which i didn't know about, saw some youtubers...
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X
4
3.4
5.2
293
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Train
she went vip, and i didn't know there was something like that in milwaukee,
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in a few days time.
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she does like artwork and shit with it, doesn't she? i mean, she's got like comic books or something.
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i've been really impressed. she's
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one of those artists that i've,
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Train
i don't know, i want to say i'm like an og, but you know, i got kind of a...
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Train
you played in a metal band and stuff like that, and then i found out one of your favorite artists is lights.
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yeah, so i will tell you if you want to know.
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at the door i, was like 14, but i'm like, i'm not taking my chances with tickets,
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because i didn't know how many people were going to be going, because there's more stuff... she doesn't take the stage until like nine. there's some painting thing,
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O
3.6
2.6
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294
Male
Train
but there wasn't an option to buy a backstage or anything like that. so i was a little disappointed
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because i definitely would've shelled out some money to meet lights backstage and just fanboy a little bit.
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Train
we do a lot of stuff, a lot of different streaming we'll be doing a lot of fun stuff coming up here.
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Train
when many countries get together through kind of pairs or groups of countries forming their own free trade agreements and most.
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Train
ah, but they wouldn't really make, adopt policies that would affect anything other than kind of what goes on at the border between...
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5.8
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so the single market is based on the idea that there are four...
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Train
the key question for both the united kingdom and for the european union is, what kind of relationship
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could look like or alternatively, if they want to maintain even closer economic integration...
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so the formal notification from the united kingdom to the european union was on march 29th, 2017. and that means that...
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so during this two year period, they definitely need to attempt to come to a deal on the divorce, right? which we'll be talking about issues like the financial
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settlement. it's widely believed that the uk will have to pay a divorce bill to the eu.
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also questions like what happens to uk citizens that are living in european countries and european citizens that are currently living in the uk,
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not the details of what the relationship will be. so it's likely that finalizing what that future relationship will be, probably won't be concluded as part of the accident.
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but there's a fall in the real wage growth and arise gradually in cpi inflation. so...
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the economy in the short run, i mean, what we have seen though, looking in the short run,
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we're kind of on firmer ground, understanding what the effects of that depreciation will be, right. a weaker sterling meant that the cost of...
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X
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you know, similarly i live in canada and, every time, since our major export is oil, every time the price of oil falls, our currency does as well.
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yeah, exactly. i think that, i think that's totally right,
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but they do help shed some light on what the consequences might be. so the first approach...
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i mean that period in the seventies is the period of the kind of big oil price shocks. that's a really difficult challenge.
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and then you can raise those barriers to simulate brexit, the big kind of modeling question...
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okay. whereas a harder brexit would be a 2.7% fall.
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i say at some point in the paper that i think the kind of plausible ...
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and i think one of the reasons some of these estimates are getting much bigger effects than these kinds of ...
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model-based assessments i've been talking about is that when we simulate the brexit shock in the model ...
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so foreign direct investment effects might be. the more important they're likely to be, the bigger the costs we think will be.
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foreign direct investment, the uk is generally quite an attractive place to invest. it's frequently the leading destination for foreign direct investment in europe.
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Train
they know that they will be able to sell to the eu with minimal trade barriers, are less likely to invest in the uk, so there's particular ...
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then the other issue obviously is immigration, which is a very salient politically ...
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4.6
299
Male
Train
so the general expectation is that, unless the uk stays in the single market ...
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A
4.4
3.8
5.4
299
Male
Train
it is likely to adopt an immigration regime ...
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N
5.090909
3
5.363636
299
Male
Train
that puts much tighter restrictions on the ability of european workers to come to the uk.
[ { "feats": [ 0.19906102120876312, -0.16917675733566284, 0.13531537353992462, -0.003914170898497105, 0.6597402691841125, 0.42769572138786316, 0.029306454584002495, 1.2460565567016602, 0.6892914175987244, -0.08456151187419891, -0.8414366245269775, ...
N
4.4
3.8
4.8
299
Male
Train
so we would probably expect to see falls in immigration to the uk.
[ { "feats": [ 0.16007184982299805, -0.23615548014640808, 0.10386733710765839, 0.032922204583883286, 0.7155844569206238, 0.3447835445404053, -0.01725943572819233, 1.4368934631347656, 0.8292386531829834, -0.09964970499277115, -0.6070467829704285, ...
N
4.2
4
4.4
298
Male
Train
poorer than the western european ones. and so having a european union ...
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N
3.4
3.8
3.6
298
Male
Train
with the freedom of migration between those very poor and very relatively rich countries really produced a lot of economic ...
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N
4.2
3.4
4.2
298
Male
Train
people does lower your ... may lower your average your gdp per capita
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N
4.818182
3.454545
4.636364
299
Male
Train
in terms of the data, is there actually any evidence that low-skilled uk workers have suffered from.
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N
4.6
4.4
4.6
299
Male
Train
find some small positive. so there's really no evidence that the uk as a whole has suffered from immigration.
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N
5
4
5
298
Male
Train
most people are better off, and there's multiple reasons for that ...
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H
4.583333
5
4.833333
298
Male
Train
but if you're a high-skilled worker, say you're a great manager.
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N
4.6
3.8
4.8
299
Male
Train
no one ... suddenly the expectation was that britain would vote to stay in the eu, and ...
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N
4.4
3.8
4.8
299
Male
Train
area of this [inaudible 00:02:18], so that naturally raises the ...
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N
4
3.4
3.8
299
Male
Train
does brexit mark kind of a second wave of de-globalization or is it just something that's ...
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N
4.8
4
4.6
299
Male
Train
this question, we need to say something about why did britain ...
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X
4
3.8
4.2
299
Male
Train
surprising referendum result, and what does it tell us about what the causes of support for brexit were?
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N
3.6
4.6
4.6
298
Male
Train
what would be evidence for this as a uk-specific event?
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X
4.4
3.6
4
299
Male
Train
i think the place to start for thinking about that is who was it who actually voted for brexit?
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N
5.4
4.4
5.4
299
Male
Train
four variables: geography, age, education, and ethnicity. so support for the leave vote ...
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N
4.7
4.6
4.5
299
Male
Train
typically, it came from england, but not from scotland or northern ireland, so ...
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N
3.6
3.6
5
299
Male
Train
only 40% of people voted to leave, whereas in the rest of england ...
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N
3.8
3.6
4.2
299
Male
Train
left behind voters, right? so these are voters that ...
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C
4.2
3.2
4.2
298
Male
Train
the older voters are going to die off, and the younger voters are going to become the new majority.
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N
5
4.4
5
299
Male
Train
yeah. i mean, i think a really interesting question here is did ...
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X
4.4
2.8
4.6
299
Male
Train
with how they were doing economically and with the direction society was headed in, and they chose to blame ...
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H
4.833333
5
5.083333
299
Male
Train
yeah. i mean, i think it's a really interesting question, and it's one where ...
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N
4.8
4.4
4.8
299
Male
Train
and they do find an effect. they find that regions where there's more import competition from china ...
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X
5.2
4.4
5
299
Male
Train
had a higher share of the vote voting for leave, so the import competition effect seemed to increase support for leave. now ...
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N
5.125
4.625
5.625
299
Male
Train
the effect quantitatively is quite small. it doesn't explain very much of the difference in vote shares across regions, so it's clearly far from the main thing that's driving the results ...
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X
5.444444
5.111111
5.444444
299
Male
Train
but i think it's a really interesting finding. partly because [inaudible 00:04:21] ...
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X
4.2
4.6
4.2
298
Male
Train
they got more sovereignty, and they got more control over their own country, and ...
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N
4.8
4
4.8
298
Male
Train
hey, that's a good trade off, but knowing that the eu might not want to give them ...
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X
4
4
5
299
Male
Train
i think it's been fairly clear that the eu's primary objective in the negotiation, and the eu has been fairly explicit about this ...
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N
4.6
4.2
4
299
Male
Train
okay. one is that it is important that ...
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X
5.4
3.6
5.8
299
Male
Train
the eu is very keen to prevent the uk-
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C
4.818182
3.272727
5.090909
299
Male
Train
... sort of cherry-picking the ability to remain within some eu institutions.
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N
4.2
4.2
4.2
299
Male
Train
the eu is trying to prevent that. and that's part of the negotiation dynamic that's going on at the moment.
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X
5.2
4.8
5
299
Male
Train
i think, looking forward, what is going to be really interesting is to see how these negotiations between the uk and the eu evolve.
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N
4
3.8
4.4
299
Male
Train
we still know very little at this point about what the final destination.
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H
5.375
5.625
5.5
1,270
Female
Train
thank you for joining me this week. home of the anheuser busch clydesdales-
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N
4.4
4
4
1,270
Female
Train
... the only horses to ever play football on a superbowl commercial.
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A
4.2
2.4
4
1,270
Female
Train
... watch these videos and not be outraged, unless you're a-
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X
5
2.6
5
1,270
Female
Train
... this union head. he should be ashamed of himself for being concerned about how these officers made themselves look by their own-
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S
3.6
2.6
4.2
1,270
Female
Train
there were immediate calls for banning guns when all of this happened.
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H
4.6
5.2
4.8
310
Male
Train
michael strong is an educational entrepreneur.
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H
5.090909
5.181818
4.727273
310
Male
Train
and i should note that one of my other favorite shows, the bob zadek show had you on-
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X
3.818182
4.727273
4.909091
310
Male
Train
... but what inspired you or motivated you to devote your life to innovation alternatives in education?
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H
4.272727
4.090909
4.727273
311
Male
Train
well, i would say the simple version is i love learning, and i hate school.
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C
4.2
2.2
4.4
311
Male
Train
people take for granted, 'raise your hand to go to the restroom.' but as an adult, you want to have to raise your hand to go to the restroom? it's ridiculous.
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H
4.6
5.6
5.3
310
Male
Train
the change has been enormous, and i have loved exploring the world and finding brilliant people to interact with, or build relationships with. you love learning-
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H
4.2
5.6
5.2
311
Male
Train
after high school, i had great test scores and so forth. so i went to harvard-
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H
4.6
4.4
4.4
311
Male
Train
[inaudible 00:01:46] seminars. and after a while we were on grant money, the grant money ran out and parents love-
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N
4.2
3.4
3.4
311
Male
Train
... so i knew nothing about business at the time, and we had to create a budget.
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H
4.6
4.2
5.2
310
Male
Train
cool. i love it. of course. i just think, i wish there were many more-
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