| |
| |
| |
|
|
| |
| nv_status = lm(success ~ EPR_STATUS_EXCL + EPR_GROUPSIZE + POP_LOG_LAG_EXT + GDPPC_LOG_LAG_EXT + VDEM_POLYARCHY_LAG + VDEM_PHYSINT_LAG + EPR_TEK_EGIP + EPR_DOWNGRADED5 + HORIZ_INEQ + NVYEARS + I(NVYEARS^2) + I(NVYEARS^3) + VYEARS + I(VYEARS^2) + I(VYEARS^3) , data= EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$INIT_NV_ONSET==1,]) |
| v_status = lm(success ~ EPR_STATUS_EXCL + EPR_GROUPSIZE + POP_LOG_LAG_EXT + GDPPC_LOG_LAG_EXT + VDEM_POLYARCHY_LAG + VDEM_PHYSINT_LAG + EPR_TEK_EGIP + EPR_DOWNGRADED5 + HORIZ_INEQ + NVYEARS + I(NVYEARS^2) + I(NVYEARS^3) + VYEARS + I(VYEARS^2) + I(VYEARS^3) , data= EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$INIT_V_ONSET==1,]) |
|
|
| preds_nv = ggpredict(nv_status, terms = c("EPR_STATUS_EXCL")) |
| preds_nv$tactic = "Non-violent" |
| preds_v = ggpredict(v_status, terms = c("EPR_STATUS_EXCL")) |
| preds_v$tactic = "Violent" |
|
|
| preds = rbind(preds_nv, preds_v) |
| preds$tactic <- factor(preds$tactic, levels = c("Violent", "Non-violent")) |
| preds$Status = "Minority/disadvantaged" |
| preds$Status[preds$x==0] = "Majority/dominant" |
|
|
| xtable(preds[,-1], digits=2) |
| preds = as.data.frame(preds) |
| preds$Status = as.factor(preds$Status) |
|
|
| status = ggplot(preds, aes(x = tactic, y = predicted, group=Status)) + |
| geom_line(aes(color=Status))+ geom_errorbar(aes(color = Status), width = 0, ymin=preds$conf.low, ymax=preds$conf.high)+ |
| geom_point(aes(color=Status, shape=Status), size=3) + ylim(-0.1,0.5) + theme_bw() + |
| scale_colour_grey(start = 0.1, end = 0.65) + geom_hline(yintercept=0, linetype="dashed")+ |
| ylab("Pr(Campaign Success)") + xlab("Tactic") +ggtitle("(A) Group Status") + |
| theme(legend.position="none") |
|
|
| |
| EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$small_size = NA |
| EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$small_size[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$EPR_GROUPSIZE < mean(EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$EPR_GROUPSIZE, na.rm=T)] = 1 |
| EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$small_size[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$EPR_GROUPSIZE >= mean(EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$EPR_GROUPSIZE, na.rm=T)] = 0 |
|
|
| nv_size = lm(success ~ small_size + POP_LOG_LAG_EXT + GDPPC_LOG_LAG_EXT + VDEM_POLYARCHY_LAG + VDEM_PHYSINT_LAG + EPR_TEK_EGIP + EPR_DOWNGRADED5 + HORIZ_INEQ + NVYEARS + I(NVYEARS^2) + I(NVYEARS^3) + VYEARS + I(VYEARS^2) + I(VYEARS^3) , data= EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$INIT_NV_ONSET==1,]) |
| v_size = lm(success ~ small_size + POP_LOG_LAG_EXT + GDPPC_LOG_LAG_EXT + VDEM_POLYARCHY_LAG + VDEM_PHYSINT_LAG + EPR_TEK_EGIP + EPR_DOWNGRADED5 + HORIZ_INEQ + NVYEARS + I(NVYEARS^2) + I(NVYEARS^3) + VYEARS + I(VYEARS^2) + I(VYEARS^3) , data= EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2[EBCR_EPR_NAVCO2$INIT_V_ONSET==1,]) |
|
|
| preds_nv = ggpredict(nv_size, terms = c("small_size")) |
| preds_nv$tactic = "Non-violent" |
| preds_v = ggpredict(v_size, terms = c("small_size")) |
| preds_v$tactic = "Violent" |
|
|
| preds = rbind(preds_nv, preds_v) |
| preds$tactic <- factor(preds$tactic, levels = c("Violent", "Non-violent")) |
| preds$Status = "Minority/disadvantaged" |
| preds$Status[preds$x==0] = "Majority/dominant" |
|
|
| preds = as.data.frame(preds) |
| preds$Status = as.factor(preds$Status) |
|
|
| xtable(preds[,-1], digits=2) |
|
|
| size = ggplot(preds, aes(x = tactic, y = predicted, group=Status)) + |
| geom_line(aes(color=Status))+ geom_errorbar(aes(color = Status), width = 0, ymin=preds$conf.low, ymax=preds$conf.high)+ |
| geom_point(aes(color=Status, shape=Status), size=3) + ylim(-0.1,0.5) + theme_bw() + |
| |
| scale_colour_grey(start = 0.1, end = 0.65) + geom_hline(yintercept=0, linetype="dashed")+ |
| ylab("Pr(Campaign Success)") + xlab("Tactic") +ggtitle("(B) Group Size") + |
| theme(legend.position="none") |
|
|
| fig1 = grid_arrange_shared_legend(status, size, ncol = 2, nrow = 1) |
| ggsave(file="Figures/fig_1.pdf", fig1, width=8, height=4) |
