갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-09-23",
+"asOf": "2026-09-24",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -17.0,
+"growthSignal": -21.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 0.05,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
 "confidence": "medium",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-09-23T00:10:22.996453+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-09-24T00:17:48.940350+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -43,9 +43,9 @@
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (266bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.25%)",
-"VIX 안정 (14.9)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (268bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.26%)",
+"VIX 안정 (14.2)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +22.1%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -86,15 +86,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-09-23T00:10:23.083327+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-09-24T00:17:49.001156+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-09-23",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-09-22",
+"asOf": "2026-09-24",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-09-23",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -116,17 +116,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-09-21",
-"value": 2.66,
-"previousDate": "2026-09-18",
-"previousValue": 2.68,
-"change": -0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-09-22",
+"value": 2.68,
+"previousDate": "2026-09-21",
+"previousValue": 2.66,
+"change": 0.020000000000000018,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -148,9 +148,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-09-20",
+"date": "2026-09-21",
 "value": 3.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-09-19",
+"previousDate": "2026-09-20",
 "previousValue": 3.0,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -212,17 +212,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-09-15",
-"value": 107.02,
-"previousDate": "2026-09-14",
-"previousValue": 102.42,
-"change": 4.599999999999994,
+"date": "2026-09-22",
+"value": 96.41,
+"previousDate": "2026-09-21",
+"previousValue": 96.97,
+"change": -0.5600000000000023,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -276,17 +276,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-09-22",
-"value": 1358.2,
-"previousDate": "2026-09-21",
-"previousValue": 1381.0,
-"change": -22.799999999999955,
+"date": "2026-09-23",
+"value": 1358.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-09-22",
+"previousValue": 1358.2,
+"change": 0.20000000000004547,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -326,7 +326,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -493,8 +493,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
-"impactDirection": "tailwind",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "headwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -539,7 +539,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -593,8 +593,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-21",
-"value": 2.66,
+"date": "2026-09-22",
+"value": 2.68,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -602,7 +602,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-20",
+"date": "2026-09-21",
 "value": 3.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -620,8 +620,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-15",
-"value": 107.02,
+"date": "2026-09-22",
+"value": 96.41,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -638,8 +638,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-22",
-"value": 1358.2,
+"date": "2026-09-23",
+"value": 1358.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -667,15 +667,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-09-23",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-09-22",
+"asOf": "2026-09-24",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-09-23",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-09-23"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-09-24"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
-"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 역풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 역풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -686,10 +686,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.66,
+"value": 2.68,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.020000000000000018,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.020000000000000018,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -713,10 +713,10 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 107.02,
+"value": 96.41,
 "unit": "$",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 4.599999999999994,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.5600000000000023,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
@@ -731,10 +731,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1358.2,
+"value": 1358.4,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -22.799999999999955,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.20000000000004547,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -745,7 +745,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-21",
+"observedAt": "2026-09-22",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -753,7 +753,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-20",
+"observedAt": "2026-09-21",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -769,7 +769,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-15",
+"observedAt": "2026-09-22",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -785,7 +785,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-22",
+"observedAt": "2026-09-23",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -979,7 +979,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-09-23T00:10:29.218024+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-09-24T00:17:54.916140+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1021,19 +1021,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-09-23T00:10:29.426038+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-09-24T00:17:55.064390+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1492,
+"probability": 0.1323,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "low",
 "zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.8,
+"spread": 0.92,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-09-22",
+"asOf": "2026-09-23",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1049,7 +1049,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6290655.35,
+"level": 6290649.66,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1078,12 +1078,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.8,
+"spread10y3m": 0.92,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-09-22",
+"asOf": "2026-09-23",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []