갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-10-07",
+"asOf": "2026-10-08",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -12.0,
+"growthSignal": -17.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 0.55,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -32,19 +32,19 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-07T01:22:16.320463+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-08T01:39:44.805506+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "expansion",
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
-"confidence": "low",
+"confidence": "medium",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (312bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.48%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (303bp)",
+"수익률곡선 정상 (+0.51%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +22.1%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -54,19 +54,7 @@
 "defensive": "neutral",
 "low": "neutral"
 },
-"transition": {
-"from": "expansion",
-"to": "slowdown",
-"progress": 25,
-"triggered": [
-"term_spread_flattening"
-],
-"pending": [
-"hy_spread_widening",
-"bei_overheating",
-"vix_rising"
-]
-},
+"transition": null,
 "quadrant": {
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
@@ -85,15 +73,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-07T01:22:16.431086+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-08T01:39:44.870986+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-10-07",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-06",
+"asOf": "2026-10-08",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-07",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -115,17 +103,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-10-05",
-"value": 3.12,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-02",
-"previousValue": 3.1,
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-10-06",
+"value": 3.03,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-05",
+"previousValue": 3.12,
+"change": -0.0900000000000003,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -147,9 +135,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-10-04",
+"date": "2026-10-05",
 "value": 3.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-03",
+"previousDate": "2026-10-04",
 "previousValue": 3.0,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -211,17 +199,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-09-29",
-"value": 96.16,
-"previousDate": "2026-09-28",
-"previousValue": 99.37,
-"change": -3.210000000000008,
+"date": "2026-10-06",
+"value": 96.24,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-05",
+"previousValue": 96.13,
+"change": 0.10999999999999943,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -243,17 +231,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "EXPORT",
-"date": "2026-07-01",
-"value": 100450.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-06-01",
-"previousValue": 112371.0,
-"change": -11921.0,
+"date": "2026-08-01",
+"value": 104800.5,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-01",
+"previousValue": 100450.0,
+"change": 4350.5,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "falling"
+"signal": "rising"
 },
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
@@ -275,11 +263,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-10-06",
-"value": 1343.6,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-05",
-"previousValue": 1344.0,
-"change": -0.40000000000009095,
+"date": "2026-10-07",
+"value": 1340.4,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-06",
+"previousValue": 1343.6,
+"change": -3.199999999999818,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -369,8 +357,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:export-demand-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -492,8 +480,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -538,7 +526,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
-"driverSignal": "falling",
+"driverSignal": "rising",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -592,8 +580,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-05",
-"value": 3.12,
+"date": "2026-10-06",
+"value": 3.03,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -601,7 +589,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-04",
+"date": "2026-10-05",
 "value": 3.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -619,8 +607,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-29",
-"value": 96.16,
+"date": "2026-10-06",
+"value": 96.24,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -628,8 +616,8 @@
 "id": "driver:EXPORT",
 "driverId": "EXPORT",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-01",
-"value": 100450.0,
+"date": "2026-08-01",
+"value": 104800.5,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
 },
@@ -637,8 +625,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-06",
-"value": 1343.6,
+"date": "2026-10-07",
+"value": 1340.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -666,15 +654,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-10-07",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-06",
+"asOf": "2026-10-08",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-07",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-07"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-08"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 역풍 경로 우세",
-"summary": "거시 역풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -685,10 +673,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 3.12,
+"value": 3.03,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.0900000000000003,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -712,28 +700,28 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 96.16,
+"value": 96.24,
 "unit": "$",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -3.210000000000008,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 0.10999999999999943,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
 "label": "수출 YoY",
-"value": 100450.0,
+"value": 104800.5,
 "unit": "%",
-"signal": "falling",
-"change": -11921.0,
+"signal": "rising",
+"change": 4350.5,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT"
 },
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1343.6,
+"value": 1340.4,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.40000000000009095,
+"change": -3.199999999999818,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -744,7 +732,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-05",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-06",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -752,7 +740,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-04",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-05",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -768,7 +756,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-29",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-06",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -776,7 +764,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#EXPORT",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-01",
+"observedAt": "2026-08-01",
 "detail": "수출 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -784,7 +772,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-06",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-07",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -978,7 +966,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-07T01:22:21.606516+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-08T01:39:46.605854+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1020,7 +1008,7 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-07T01:22:21.881745+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-08T01:39:46.760246+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
@@ -1032,7 +1020,7 @@
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-10-06",
+"asOf": "2026-10-07",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1048,7 +1036,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6289445.67,
+"level": 6289442.2,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1082,21 +1070,21 @@
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-10-06",
+"asOf": "2026-10-07",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"gar5": -0.47,
+"gar5": -0.46,
 "gar25": 1.31,
 "median": 2.08,
 "gar75": 2.84,
 "gar95": 4.67,
-"skewness": 0.04,
+"skewness": 0.05,
 "tailRisk": "moderate",
 "tailRiskLabel": "보통",
-"currentFCI": -0.277,
+"currentFCI": -0.275,
 "observations": 98,
 "horizon": 4,
 "timeKind": "forward",