갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-07-29",
+"asOf": "2026-07-30",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": "recovery",
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -16.0,
+"growthSignal": -25.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 0.52,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:10.541737+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:43.922999+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -42,8 +42,8 @@
 "phaseLabel": "확장",
 "confidence": "low",
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (281bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.35%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (284bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.45%)",
 "금 급등 (YoY +27.9%)",
 "CPI 3.7% — 인플레 동반 확장"
 ],
@@ -84,15 +84,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:10.645082+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:44.033962+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-07-29",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-28",
+"asOf": "2026-07-30",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-29",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -114,11 +114,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
-"value": 2.81,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-24",
-"previousValue": 2.79,
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-07-28",
+"value": 2.84,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-27",
+"previousValue": 2.81,
+"change": 0.029999999999999805,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -146,9 +146,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-07-26",
+"date": "2026-07-27",
 "value": 2.75,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-25",
+"previousDate": "2026-07-26",
 "previousValue": 2.75,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -210,17 +210,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-07-20",
-"value": 84.38,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-17",
-"previousValue": 83.43,
-"change": 0.9499999999999886,
+"date": "2026-07-27",
+"value": 84.25,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-24",
+"previousValue": 91.74,
+"change": -7.489999999999995,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -274,11 +274,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-07-28",
-"value": 1462.5,
-"previousDate": "2026-07-27",
-"previousValue": 1468.5,
-"change": -6.0,
+"date": "2026-07-29",
+"value": 1446.7,
+"previousDate": "2026-07-28",
+"previousValue": 1462.5,
+"change": -15.799999999999955,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -537,7 +537,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -591,8 +591,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-27",
-"value": 2.81,
+"date": "2026-07-28",
+"value": 2.84,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -600,7 +600,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-26",
+"date": "2026-07-27",
 "value": 2.75,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -618,8 +618,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-20",
-"value": 84.38,
+"date": "2026-07-27",
+"value": 84.25,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -636,8 +636,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-07-28",
-"value": 1462.5,
+"date": "2026-07-29",
+"value": 1446.7,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -665,10 +665,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-07-29",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-07-28",
+"asOf": "2026-07-30",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-07-29",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-29"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-07-30"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -684,10 +684,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 2.81,
+"value": 2.84,
 "unit": "%p",
 "signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.020000000000000018,
+"change": 0.029999999999999805,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -711,10 +711,10 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 84.38,
+"value": 84.25,
 "unit": "$",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.9499999999999886,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -7.489999999999995,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
@@ -729,10 +729,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1462.5,
+"value": 1446.7,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -6.0,
+"change": -15.799999999999955,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -743,7 +743,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-28",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -751,7 +751,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-26",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -767,7 +767,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-20",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-27",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -783,7 +783,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-07-28",
+"observedAt": "2026-07-29",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -977,7 +977,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:26.893361+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:49.915761+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1019,19 +1019,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-07-28T23:14:27.153494+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-07-29T23:11:50.174058+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1629,
+"probability": 0.1434,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
-"zone": "moderate",
-"zoneLabel": "보통",
-"spread": 0.71,
+"zone": "low",
+"zoneLabel": "낮음",
+"spread": 0.84,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-07-28",
+"asOf": "2026-07-29",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1047,7 +1047,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6231498.22,
+"level": 6231498.53,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1076,12 +1076,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.71,
+"spread10y3m": 0.84,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-07-28",
+"asOf": "2026-07-29",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []