갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-10-22",
+"asOf": "2026-10-23",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-22T00:58:24.254363+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-23T00:33:13.672165+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
@@ -43,8 +43,8 @@
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (329bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.33%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (327bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.31%)",
 "CPI 4.0% — 물가 과열, 둔화 전조"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
@@ -72,15 +72,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-10-22T00:58:24.321437+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-10-23T00:33:13.775975+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-10-22",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-21",
+"asOf": "2026-10-23",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-22",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -102,11 +102,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-10-19",
-"value": 3.29,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-16",
-"previousValue": 3.31,
-"change": -0.020000000000000018,
+"date": "2026-10-21",
+"value": 3.27,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-20",
+"previousValue": 3.33,
+"change": -0.06000000000000005,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -134,9 +134,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-10-19",
+"date": "2026-10-22",
 "value": 3.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-18",
+"previousDate": "2026-10-21",
 "previousValue": 3.0,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -198,17 +198,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "DCOILWTICO",
-"date": "2026-10-14",
-"value": 101.91,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-13",
-"previousValue": 100.86,
-"change": 1.0499999999999972,
+"date": "2026-10-20",
+"value": 107.89,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-19",
+"previousValue": 110.01,
+"change": -2.1200000000000045,
 "unit": "$",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "EXPORT",
@@ -262,11 +262,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-10-21",
-"value": 1325.2,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-20",
-"previousValue": 1328.1,
-"change": -2.8999999999998636,
+"date": "2026-10-22",
+"value": 1324.2,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-21",
+"previousValue": 1325.2,
+"change": -1.0,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -525,7 +525,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:oil-margin-cost",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -579,8 +579,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-19",
-"value": 3.29,
+"date": "2026-10-21",
+"value": 3.27,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -588,7 +588,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-19",
+"date": "2026-10-22",
 "value": 3.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -606,8 +606,8 @@
 "id": "driver:DCOILWTICO",
 "driverId": "DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-14",
-"value": 101.91,
+"date": "2026-10-20",
+"value": 107.89,
 "unit": "$",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
@@ -624,8 +624,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-21",
-"value": 1325.2,
+"date": "2026-10-22",
+"value": 1324.2,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -653,10 +653,10 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-10-22",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-10-21",
+"asOf": "2026-10-23",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-10-22",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-22"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-10-23"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
@@ -672,10 +672,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 3.29,
+"value": 3.27,
 "unit": "%p",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -0.020000000000000018,
+"change": -0.06000000000000005,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -699,10 +699,10 @@
 {
 "id": "DCOILWTICO",
 "label": "WTI",
-"value": 101.91,
+"value": 107.89,
 "unit": "$",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 1.0499999999999972,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -2.1200000000000045,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO"
 },
 {
@@ -717,10 +717,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1325.2,
+"value": 1324.2,
 "unit": "원",
 "signal": "falling",
-"change": -2.8999999999998636,
+"change": -1.0,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -731,7 +731,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-19",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-21",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -739,7 +739,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-19",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-22",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -755,7 +755,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#DCOILWTICO",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-14",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-20",
 "detail": "WTI 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -771,7 +771,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-21",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-22",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -965,7 +965,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-22T00:58:26.126240+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-23T00:33:16.690667+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1007,19 +1007,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-10-22T00:58:26.287022+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-10-23T00:33:16.960492+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1406,
+"probability": 0.1582,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
-"zone": "low",
-"zoneLabel": "낮음",
-"spread": 0.86,
+"zone": "moderate",
+"zoneLabel": "보통",
+"spread": 0.74,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-10-20",
+"asOf": "2026-10-22",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1035,7 +1035,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6289444.03,
+"level": 6289455.47,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1064,26 +1064,26 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.86,
+"spread10y3m": 0.74,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-10-20",
+"asOf": "2026-10-22",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []
 },
 "gar": {
-"gar5": -0.46,
+"gar5": -0.47,
 "gar25": 1.31,
 "median": 2.08,
 "gar75": 2.84,
 "gar95": 4.67,
-"skewness": 0.05,
+"skewness": 0.04,
 "tailRisk": "moderate",
 "tailRiskLabel": "보통",
-"currentFCI": -0.275,
+"currentFCI": -0.276,
 "observations": 98,
 "horizon": 4,
 "timeKind": "forward",