갱신: dashboards JSON (mapBuild)

landing/dashboards/macro.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
 "version": "v20",
-"asOf": "2026-11-03",
+"asOf": "2026-11-04",
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
 "phase": null,
@@ -18,9 +18,9 @@
 "quadrant": "stagflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "스태그플레이션",
 "growth": "falling",
-"growthSignal": -18.0,
+"growthSignal": -11.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
-"inflationSignal": 0.55,
+"inflationSignal": 0.57,
 "assetImplication": {
 "equity": "underweight",
 "bond": "underweight",
@@ -32,19 +32,20 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 둔화 + 물가 상승 — 금·TIPS·현금 방어, 주식·채권 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-11-03T03:26:32.017193+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-11-04T01:58:18.565936+00:00"
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
 "phase": "slowdown",
 "phaseLabel": "둔화",
-"confidence": "medium",
+"confidence": "high",
 "status": "observed",
 "observedInputs": 7,
 "totalInputs": 8,
 "signals": [
-"HY 스프레드 안정 (344bp)",
-"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.32%)",
+"HY 스프레드 안정 (343bp)",
+"수익률곡선 평탄화 (+0.34%)",
+"VIX 상승 (21.1)",
 "CPI 4.0% — 물가 과열, 둔화 전조"
 ],
 "sectorStrategy": {
@@ -58,7 +59,7 @@
 "quadrant": "reflation",
 "quadrantLabel": "리플레이션",
 "growth": "rising",
-"growthSignal": 663441.0,
+"growthSignal": 677197.0,
 "inflation": "rising",
 "inflationSignal": 24.25,
 "assetImplication": {
@@ -72,15 +73,15 @@
 "confidence": "high",
 "description": "성장 가속 + 물가 상승 — 원자재·EM 주식·TIPS 유리, 명목채 불리"
 },
-"computedAt": "2026-11-03T03:26:32.103265+00:00"
+"computedAt": "2026-11-04T01:58:18.647514+00:00"
 },
 "transmission": {
 "target": "KR:market",
 "stockCode": null,
 "market": "KR",
 "sectorKey": null,
-"asOf": "2026-11-03",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-11-02",
+"asOf": "2026-11-04",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-11-03",
 "drivers": [
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
@@ -102,17 +103,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "FRED",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
-"date": "2026-10-30",
-"value": 3.44,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-29",
-"previousValue": 3.26,
-"change": 0.18000000000000016,
+"date": "2026-11-02",
+"value": 3.43,
+"previousDate": "2026-10-30",
+"previousValue": 3.44,
+"change": -0.009999999999999787,
 "unit": "%p",
 "artifactPath": "macro/fred/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 },
 {
 "id": "BASE_RATE",
@@ -134,9 +135,9 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "BASE_RATE",
-"date": "2026-10-31",
+"date": "2026-11-01",
 "value": 3.0,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-30",
+"previousDate": "2026-10-31",
 "previousValue": 3.0,
 "change": 0.0,
 "unit": "%",
@@ -166,11 +167,11 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "CPI",
-"date": "2026-09-01",
-"value": 120.43,
-"previousDate": "2026-08-01",
-"previousValue": 120.05,
-"change": 0.38000000000000966,
+"date": "2026-10-01",
+"value": 120.73,
+"previousDate": "2026-09-01",
+"previousValue": 120.43,
+"change": 0.29999999999999716,
 "unit": "%",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
@@ -262,17 +263,17 @@
 "sourceLineage": {
 "source": "ECOS",
 "sourceSeriesId": "USDKRW",
-"date": "2026-11-02",
-"value": 1343.8,
-"previousDate": "2026-10-30",
-"previousValue": 1334.3,
-"change": 9.5,
+"date": "2026-11-03",
+"value": 1341.0,
+"previousDate": "2026-11-02",
+"previousValue": 1343.8,
+"change": -2.7999999999999545,
 "unit": "원",
 "artifactPath": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet",
 "asOfPolicy": "observation_date <= price_as_of",
 "status": "observed"
 },
-"signal": "rising"
+"signal": "falling"
 }
 ],
 "edges": [
@@ -312,7 +313,7 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "PRIOR",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:fx-export-revenue",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
 "impactDirection": "twoSided",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "sectorPrior",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
@@ -479,8 +480,8 @@
 ],
 "evidenceLabel": "OBS",
 "sourceRef": "macro.transmission:edge:hy-risk-premium",
-"driverSignal": "rising",
-"impactDirection": "headwind",
+"driverSignal": "falling",
+"impactDirection": "tailwind",
 "resolvedEvidenceLevel": "observed",
 "companyEvidenceCoverage": 0.0,
 "matchedCompanyRequirements": [],
@@ -579,8 +580,8 @@
 "id": "driver:BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "driverId": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-30",
-"value": 3.44,
+"date": "2026-11-02",
+"value": 3.43,
 "unit": "%p",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
@@ -588,7 +589,7 @@
 "id": "driver:BASE_RATE",
 "driverId": "BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-10-31",
+"date": "2026-11-01",
 "value": 3.0,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE"
@@ -597,8 +598,8 @@
 "id": "driver:CPI",
 "driverId": "CPI",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-09-01",
-"value": 120.43,
+"date": "2026-10-01",
+"value": 120.73,
 "unit": "%",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
 },
@@ -624,8 +625,8 @@
 "id": "driver:USDKRW",
 "driverId": "USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"date": "2026-11-02",
-"value": 1343.8,
+"date": "2026-11-03",
+"value": 1341.0,
 "unit": "원",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
@@ -653,15 +654,15 @@
 "version": "1"
 },
 "time": {
-"asOf": "2026-11-03",
-"dataAsOf": "2026-11-02",
+"asOf": "2026-11-04",
+"dataAsOf": "2026-11-03",
 "period": null,
-"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-11-03"
+"knowledgeBoundary": "2026-11-04"
 },
 "status": "partial",
 "conclusion": {
-"label": "거시 전파 경로 혼재",
-"summary": "거시 전파 경로 혼재입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
+"label": "거시 순풍 경로 우세",
+"summary": "거시 순풍 경로 우세입니다. 거시 관측 6/6개를 확인했지만 개별 회사 재무 근거에는 아직 바인딩되지 않았습니다."
 },
 "confidence": {
 "level": "medium",
@@ -672,10 +673,10 @@
 {
 "id": "BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "label": "미국 HY 스프레드",
-"value": 3.44,
+"value": 3.43,
 "unit": "%p",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.18000000000000016,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -0.009999999999999787,
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2"
 },
 {
@@ -690,10 +691,10 @@
 {
 "id": "CPI",
 "label": "소비자물가 YoY",
-"value": 120.43,
+"value": 120.73,
 "unit": "%",
 "signal": "rising",
-"change": 0.38000000000000966,
+"change": 0.29999999999999716,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI"
 },
 {
@@ -717,10 +718,10 @@
 {
 "id": "USDKRW",
 "label": "원/달러",
-"value": 1343.8,
+"value": 1341.0,
 "unit": "원",
-"signal": "rising",
-"change": 9.5,
+"signal": "falling",
+"change": -2.7999999999999545,
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW"
 }
 ],
@@ -731,7 +732,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/fred/observations.parquet#BAMLH0A0HYM2",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-30",
+"observedAt": "2026-11-02",
 "detail": "미국 HY 스프레드 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -739,7 +740,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#BASE_RATE",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-10-31",
+"observedAt": "2026-11-01",
 "detail": "한국 기준금리 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -747,7 +748,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#CPI",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-09-01",
+"observedAt": "2026-10-01",
 "detail": "소비자물가 YoY 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 },
 {
@@ -771,7 +772,7 @@
 "kind": "macroObservation",
 "sourceRef": "macro/ecos/observations.parquet#USDKRW",
 "status": "observed",
-"observedAt": "2026-11-02",
+"observedAt": "2026-11-03",
 "detail": "원/달러 최신 관측과 직전 변화"
 }
 ],
@@ -965,7 +966,7 @@
 "regime": {
 "kr": {
 "market": "KR",
-"computedAt": "2026-11-03T03:27:38.618802+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-11-04T01:58:20.403025+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "lei": {
@@ -1007,19 +1008,19 @@
 },
 "us": {
 "market": "US",
-"computedAt": "2026-11-03T03:27:38.829540+00:00",
+"computedAt": "2026-11-04T01:58:20.607991+00:00",
 "forecast": {
 "models": {
 "probit": {
-"probability": 0.1644,
+"probability": 0.1582,
 "probabilityRounded": 0.15,
 "zone": "moderate",
 "zoneLabel": "보통",
-"spread": 0.7,
+"spread": 0.74,
 "horizon": "12M",
 "timeKind": "leading",
 "precisionNote": "Estrella-Mishkin 고정계수·표준오차 미산출(점추정)",
-"asOf": "2026-11-02",
+"asOf": "2026-11-03",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7
 },
@@ -1035,7 +1036,7 @@
 "staleAfterDays": 45
 },
 "lei": {
-"level": 6289423.42,
+"level": 6419849.02,
 "mom6m": null,
 "signal": "expansion",
 "signalLabel": "확장",
@@ -1064,12 +1065,12 @@
 "missing": []
 },
 "rates": {
-"spread10y3m": 0.7,
+"spread10y3m": 0.74,
 "sign": "+",
 "curveShape": "steep_normal",
 "curveShapeLabel": "가파른정상",
 "curveSource": "NelsonSiegel.interpretation",
-"asOf": "2026-11-02",
+"asOf": "2026-11-03",
 "seriesId": "T10Y3M",
 "staleAfterDays": 7,
 "missing": []