evidence/incident_lead.json

{
  "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:25:40+00:00",
  "status": "not_estimable",
  "finding": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
  "history": [
    "leading_signal_detected (retire)",
    "refuted_transport_artifact (trop categorique, requalifie)"
  ],
  "evidence": "probe_events.json",
  "results": [
    {
      "provider": "anthropic",
      "down_episodes_30d": 4,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 7,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 4,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "cohere",
      "down_episodes_30d": 3,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 3,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "google",
      "down_episodes_30d": 4,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 5,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 4,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "groq",
      "down_episodes_30d": 4,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 4,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "huggingface",
      "down_episodes_30d": 4,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 4,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "mistral",
      "down_episodes_30d": 4,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 4,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "ollama_hub",
      "down_episodes_30d": 5,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 5,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "openai",
      "down_episodes_30d": 5,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 18,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 5,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    },
    {
      "provider": "together",
      "down_episodes_30d": 3,
      "episodes_transport": null,
      "episodes_5xx": null,
      "episodes_429": null,
      "episodes_other": null,
      "incidents_ch_30d": 0,
      "base_rate_p0": null,
      "pairs_lead": 0,
      "median_lead_hours": null,
      "verdict": "not_estimable",
      "confidence": "not_estimable: 0 evenement admissible (aucun 5xx observe); 36 echecs de transport = 3 fenetres synchronisees (chemin de sonde commun suspecte) + 6 fenetres non attribuees; couverture d'observation 96.32%; relation d'avance ni confirmee ni refutee",
      "method": "strict: available=0 + status>=500 only; status_code=0 treated as local/transport failure",
      "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:53+00:00",
      "transport_failures_30d": 3,
      "nonlocal_down_episodes_30d": 0,
      "null_model": "transport failures excluded; no nonlocal provider outage episodes observed"
    }
  ]
}