| schema_version: "0.1" |
| created: "2026-05-16" |
| source_inventory: observables/observables.yaml |
| status: gated_aggregation_rule_spec |
|
|
| purpose: > |
| Executable staged aggregation layer for joining sparse rule outputs |
| into algorithm-facing capacity, warning-height training-like, suppressor, |
| discrepancy, and final-routing claims. Aggregation consumes sparse rule |
| categories and labels by default; raw feature interpretation remains in the |
| active sparse rule files. |
| |
| source_and_calibration_policy: |
| online_research_checked: "2026-05-16" |
| source_ledger: observables/rules/source_ledger.yaml |
| notes: |
| - "S01 confirms the 1.0e25 FLOP policy-scale threshold; this is scale, not workload identity." |
| - "S07-S09 and S36-S39 support accelerator/activity telemetry surfaces but not portable training-identity thresholds." |
| - "S11-S17 support collective, sharded, and distributed-training communication mechanisms, while also showing why HPC/MPI and benchmark alternatives must be checked." |
| - "S28-S35 support flow-log, storage-log, and billing coverage/delay caveats; missing or delayed channels must not be treated as cleared suppressors." |
| - "S45-S47 support checkpoint and distributed-checkpoint storage behavior, but checkpoint-like writes can also be storage maintenance, copy, backup, restore, or export activity." |
|
|
| aggregation_policy: |
| stage_order: |
| - A_capacity_gate |
| - B_training_candidate_detection |
| - C_discrepancy_and_explanation_review |
| - final_claim_routing |
| scope_join_policy: |
| default_scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| child_scope_rollup: "Roll up child scopes only when the mapping coverage is explicit for the candidate window." |
| no_hidden_capacity_policy: "Hidden, unknown, or out-of-scope capacity prevents strong negative certification." |
| window_segmentation_policy: |
| segmentation_signal: capacity_segment_window |
| split_at: |
| - inventory_validity_boundary |
| - advertised_peak_rate_validity_boundary |
| - quota_or_reservation_boundary |
| - running_or_billing_interval_boundary |
| - partition_interval_boundary |
| - maintenance_interval_boundary |
| - health_degraded_or_throttle_state_boundary |
| - electrical_service_or_installation_boundary |
| - topology_domain_or_route_change_boundary |
| - clock_drift_correction_boundary |
| short_circuit_policy: |
| stop_segment_if: |
| - label: capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| confidence: conservative_bound |
| min_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| do_not_run_stages: |
| - B_training_candidate_detection |
| - C_discrepancy_and_explanation_review |
| rationale: "A high-coverage conservative upper bound below the policy threshold rules out threshold-scale compute for the monitored scope/window." |
| do_not_stop_if: |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_possible_under_sparse_assumptions |
| missing_data_policy: |
| general: "Missing primary, suppressor, coverage, or clock-alignment data emits an explicit missingness or inconclusive claim; it is not interpreted as absence." |
| suppressor_channels: "Missing expected suppressor channels block high warning heights." |
| final_warning_heights: |
| ordered_values: |
| - none |
| - weak_training_like_candidate |
| - medium_training_like_warning |
| - high_training_like_warning |
| hard_constraints: |
| - "Activity alone cannot produce any training-like warning above weak candidate routing." |
| - "Fabric evidence alone cannot produce a training-like warning." |
| - "Storage writes alone cannot produce a training-like warning." |
| - "Large compute alone emits large_compute_candidate or large_compute_training_identity_unresolved, not training." |
| - "High warning requires capacity possible/unknown, accelerator activity or achieved operations, at least two independent aligned B/supporting identity categories, checked suppressors, and no unresolved strong discrepancy." |
| global_calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.90 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S18, S23, S26, S35, S40, S41] |
| rationale: "Negative capacity claims require high coverage of inventory, service, availability, and peak-rate inputs." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "missing inventory, peak rate, electrical service, cloud scope, or hidden capacity can invalidate a rule-out" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific completeness guarantees for the monitored scope." |
| - name: policy_threshold_operations |
| value: 1.0e+25 |
| unit: operations |
| evidence_status: source_backed |
| source_refs: [S01, S03] |
| rationale: "Policy-scale compute threshold used for capacity and large-compute review; it is not workload identity." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "large inference, synthetic data generation, HPC, benchmarks, and burn-in can cross the same scale" |
| calibration_note: "Replace only if governing policy threshold changes." |
|
|
| aggregation_rules: |
| - id: capacity_gate_segment_ruleout |
| purpose: capacity_gate |
| stage: A_capacity_gate |
| consumes: |
| rule_output_categories: |
| all: |
| - capacity_policy_scale |
| any: |
| - capacity_count_or_shape |
| - capacity_peak_rate |
| - capacity_availability |
| - capacity_power_service |
| - capacity_topology |
| derived_signals: |
| - capacity_segment_window |
| - capacity_upper_bound_flop |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| - clock_aligned_overlap_window |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: capacity_segment_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_capacity_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| clock_alignment_confidence: |
| value_ref: min_capacity_clock_alignment_confidence |
| missing_data_behavior: capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| short_circuit_behavior: "On emitted capacity_ruled_out_for_scope, stop B and C for this capacity segment." |
| trigger: |
| type: aggregation_gate_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.unit_normalized |
| op: "==" |
| value: true |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.capacity_upper_bound_operations |
| op: "<" |
| value_ref: policy_threshold_operations |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| - metric: clock_aligned_overlap_window.clock_alignment_confidence |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_capacity_clock_alignment_confidence |
| none: |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.hidden_or_unmonitored_capacity_possible |
| op: "==" |
| value: true |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.missing_required_peak_rate |
| op: "==" |
| value: true |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| stage_result: stop_segment |
| max_confidence: conservative_bound |
| warning_height: none |
| statement: "Threshold-scale compute is conservatively ruled out for the monitored scope/window." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Emit capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs when coverage, unit normalization, scope mapping, clock alignment, peak rate, inventory, or service state is insufficient." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - training |
| - no_non_threshold_training |
| - no_hidden_out_of_scope_run |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: policy_threshold_operations |
| value: 1.0e+25 |
| unit: operations |
| evidence_status: source_backed |
| source_refs: [S01, S03] |
| rationale: "Policy review scale for large compute; not workload identity." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "threshold-scale compute can be non-training" |
| calibration_note: "Replace only if governing policy threshold changes." |
| - name: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.90 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S18, S23, S26, S35, S40, S41] |
| rationale: "Strong rule-out requires high capacity input coverage." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "missing inventory, peak rate, service, quota, or hidden capacity can invalidate rule-out" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific coverage requirements." |
| - name: min_capacity_clock_alignment_confidence |
| value: 0.80 |
| unit: score_0_to_1 |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S21, S22, S23, S26, S28, S29, S35] |
| rationale: "Capacity validity intervals and source records must align before a negative conclusion is trusted." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "clock drift or delayed cloud/provider records can shift apparent capacity boundaries" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with measured clock drift and source delivery-delay bounds." |
|
|
| - id: capacity_gate_live_segment_classification |
| purpose: capacity_gate |
| stage: A_capacity_gate |
| consumes: |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - capacity_count_or_shape |
| - capacity_peak_rate |
| - capacity_memory |
| - capacity_topology |
| - capacity_availability |
| - capacity_power_service |
| - capacity_policy_scale |
| derived_signals: |
| - capacity_segment_window |
| - capacity_upper_bound_flop |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: capacity_segment_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_capacity_live_overlap_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| short_circuit_behavior: "Never short-circuit B/C from this rule; live segments continue to B." |
| aggregation_logic: |
| ordered_classification: |
| - output: capacity_possible_for_scope |
| when: |
| all: |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.capacity_upper_bound_operations |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: policy_threshold_operations |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_capacity_possible_coverage_fraction |
| - output: capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| when: |
| all: |
| - category: capacity_availability |
| - metric: capacity_upper_bound_flop.coverage_fraction |
| op: "<" |
| value_ref: min_capacity_ruleout_coverage_fraction |
| any: |
| - category: capacity_count_or_shape |
| - category: capacity_peak_rate |
| - category: capacity_power_service |
| - output: capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| when: |
| any: |
| - missing_category: capacity_count_or_shape |
| - missing_category: capacity_peak_rate |
| - metric: telemetry_coverage_fraction.primary_channel_min |
| op: "<" |
| value_ref: min_capacity_possible_coverage_fraction |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: capacity_segment_live_for_B |
| possible_outputs: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| stage_result: continue_segment |
| max_confidence: weak |
| statement: "The capacity segment remains live for B candidate detection unless separately ruled out by a conservative high-coverage upper bound." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Emit capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs and keep the segment live." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - training |
| - capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: policy_threshold_operations |
| value: 1.0e+25 |
| unit: operations |
| evidence_status: source_backed |
| source_refs: [S01, S03] |
| rationale: "Policy-scale compute threshold for feasibility review." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "policy threshold does not classify workload type" |
| calibration_note: "Replace only if governing policy threshold changes." |
| - name: min_capacity_possible_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.60 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S18, S23, S26, S35] |
| rationale: "Live capacity classification can proceed at lower coverage than a negative rule-out because missingness keeps B/C alive." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "low coverage can overstate or understate available capacity" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by source coverage and audit risk tolerance." |
| - name: min_capacity_live_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.50 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S23, S26, S28, S29, S35] |
| rationale: "At least half-window overlap prevents stale capacity facts from classifying a live segment." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "short but important capacity changes can be diluted by this default" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific validity interval logic." |
|
|
| - id: large_compute_candidate_routing |
| purpose: large_compute_candidate_aggregation |
| stage: B_training_candidate_detection |
| consumes: |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - large_compute_scale |
| - accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| - capacity_policy_scale |
| derived_signals: |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| - achieved_operation_integral |
| - capacity_upper_bound_flop |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_large_compute_capacity_overlap_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: large_compute_training_identity_unresolved |
| allowed_adjacency_seconds: |
| value_ref: max_achieved_ops_capacity_adjacency_seconds |
| trigger: |
| type: large_compute_scale_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - metric: achieved_operation_integral.operation_count |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: policy_threshold_operations |
| - metric: achieved_operation_integral.coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_large_compute_coverage_fraction |
| any: |
| - category: large_compute_scale |
| - category: accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: large_compute_candidate |
| alternate_outputs: |
| - large_compute_capacity_conflict |
| - large_compute_training_identity_unresolved |
| warning_height: none |
| max_confidence: medium |
| statement: "Achieved or inferred operations reach policy scale, but workload identity remains unresolved until joined with independent training-like evidence." |
| demotion_policy: |
| capacity_conflict: "If achieved_operation_integral exceeds capacity_upper_bound_flop by the configured ratio, emit large_compute_capacity_conflict and route to C." |
| no_identity_evidence: "If no fabric/checkpoint/non-serving identity-shape category aligns, emit large_compute_training_identity_unresolved." |
| missing_data_behavior: "If operation units, counter resets, or achieved-counter coverage are unresolved, route to C and suppress training-like promotion." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - training |
| - distributed_training |
| - checkpoint_training |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: policy_threshold_operations |
| value: 1.0e+25 |
| unit: operations |
| evidence_status: source_backed |
| source_refs: [S01, S03] |
| rationale: "Large-compute policy threshold." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "large compute may be inference, HPC, synthetic-data generation, benchmarks, or burn-in" |
| calibration_note: "Replace only if governing policy threshold changes." |
| - name: min_large_compute_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: source_informed |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S36, S37, S38, S39] |
| rationale: "Operation integrals require substantial achieved-counter or calibrated proxy coverage." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "counter gaps, unit mismatch, or proxy calibration can distort operation counts" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with counter-source reliability and unit-normalization tests." |
| - name: min_large_compute_capacity_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.70 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S23, S24, S26, S35] |
| rationale: "Achieved operations and capacity must mostly describe the same scope/window before conflict or feasibility routing." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "billing, running, and achieved-counter windows can lag or differ in scope" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by provider/accounting and counter aggregation behavior." |
| - name: max_achieved_ops_capacity_adjacency_seconds |
| value: 600 |
| unit: seconds |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S23, S26, S28, S35] |
| rationale: "Allows short accounting, aggregation, and clock-boundary mismatches without merging unrelated windows." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "provider logs can be delayed by more than this; long jobs split at hour boundaries may need source-specific handling" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with measured source delivery and boundary behavior." |
|
|
| - id: distributed_training_like_candidate_promotion |
| purpose: training_candidate_promotion |
| stage: B_training_candidate_detection |
| consumes: |
| required_capacity_outputs: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| rule_output_categories: |
| all: |
| - accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| - fabric_parameter_update_like |
| optional: |
| - non_serving_workload_shape |
| - topology_context_support |
| - physical_activity_support |
| derived_signals: |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| - warning_height_score |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| - clock_aligned_overlap_window |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_activity_identity_overlap_fraction |
| minimum_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: "candidate_requires_manual_review if suppressor or primary coverage is below threshold." |
| allowed_adjacency_seconds: |
| value_ref: max_fabric_activity_adjacency_seconds |
| trigger: |
| type: independent_category_promotion_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - capacity_output: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| - category: accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| - category: fabric_parameter_update_like |
| - metric: rule_output_join_window.overlap_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_activity_identity_overlap_fraction |
| - metric: telemetry_coverage_fraction.primary_channel_min |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| none: |
| - label: capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| - suppression_state: strong_unresolved_suppressor |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: distributed_training_like_candidate |
| warning_height_by_score: |
| weak_training_like_candidate: "activity plus fabric identity shape align, but support or suppressor review is incomplete." |
| medium_training_like_warning: "activity plus fabric identity shape align with checked suppressors and at least one support or non-serving category." |
| high_training_like_warning: "activity plus fabric identity shape align with a second independent identity/support category, checked suppressors, high coverage, and no unresolved discrepancy." |
| max_confidence: medium |
| statement: "Aligned accelerator activity and collective-like fabric behavior form a distributed training-like candidate; final warning height depends on suppressor and discrepancy review." |
| suppression_policy: |
| checked_suppressors: |
| - serving_counterevidence |
| - benchmark_hpc_alternative |
| - storage_operation_explanation |
| - topology_route_conflict |
| missing_suppressor_behavior: "Cap at weak_training_like_candidate and emit inconclusive_due_to_missingness." |
| strong_suppressor_behavior: "Emit candidate_demoted_by_unresolved_suppressor or candidate_benchmark_like." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Missing fabric/activity coverage, clock alignment, or suppressor state prevents medium/high warning." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - high_training_like_warning_from_activity_alone |
| - high_training_like_warning_from_fabric_alone |
| - final_training_claim_without_C_when_suppressors_present |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_activity_identity_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.60 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S11, S12, S13, S14, S16, S17, S28, S29] |
| rationale: "Compute and fabric phases should substantially overlap for distributed training-like promotion, while allowing aggregation and phase lag." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "asynchronous prefetch, gradient accumulation, coarse flow logs, HPC, and distributed inference can change overlap shape" |
| calibration_note: "Calibrate with local step traces, flow-log intervals, and known non-training workloads." |
| - name: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: source_informed |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S28, S29, S36, S37, S38, S39, S42, S43] |
| rationale: "B candidate promotion needs substantial coverage of activity and identity-shape channels." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "sampled flow logs or missing device counters can overstate or understate alignment" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with per-source coverage and sampling guarantees." |
| - name: max_fabric_activity_adjacency_seconds |
| value: 300 |
| unit: seconds |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S11, S12, S13, S14, S28, S29, S42, S43] |
| rationale: "Allows coarse fabric aggregation and phase relation without joining unrelated runs." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "long checkpoint or communication phases may sit outside this default; coarse logs may require wider windows" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by fabric telemetry aggregation interval and clock drift." |
|
|
| - id: checkpoint_training_like_candidate_promotion |
| purpose: training_candidate_promotion |
| stage: B_training_candidate_detection |
| consumes: |
| required_capacity_outputs: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| rule_output_categories: |
| all: |
| - accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| - storage_checkpoint_state_like |
| optional: |
| - data_lifecycle_support |
| - lifecycle_operational_context |
| - physical_activity_support |
| derived_signals: |
| - aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - warning_height_score |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| - checkpoint_periodicity_score |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_adjacency_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_checkpoint_activity_adjacency_fraction |
| allowed_adjacency_seconds: |
| value_ref: max_checkpoint_activity_adjacency_seconds |
| minimum_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: "candidate_requires_manual_review if storage-operation explanations are unavailable." |
| trigger: |
| type: adjacent_identity_promotion_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - capacity_output: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| - category: accelerator_activity_run_existence |
| - category: storage_checkpoint_state_like |
| - metric: rule_output_join_window.adjacency_or_overlap_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_checkpoint_activity_adjacency_fraction |
| - metric: telemetry_coverage_fraction.primary_channel_min |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| none: |
| - label: capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| warning_height_by_score: |
| weak_training_like_candidate: "activity and checkpoint-like storage are adjacent or overlapping, but explanation review is incomplete." |
| medium_training_like_warning: "activity and repeated checkpoint-like storage align with checked storage-operation explanations." |
| high_training_like_warning: "checkpoint-like storage aligns with activity plus another independent identity channel, checked suppressors, high coverage, and no unresolved discrepancy." |
| max_confidence: medium |
| statement: "Aligned accelerator activity and checkpoint-like state writes form a training-like checkpoint candidate; storage-operation explanations must be adjudicated before promotion." |
| suppression_policy: |
| checked_suppressors: |
| - storage_operation_explanation |
| - storage_activity_conflict |
| - serving_counterevidence |
| - lifecycle_operational_context |
| missing_suppressor_behavior: "Emit inconclusive_due_to_missingness and cap at weak_training_like_candidate." |
| strong_suppressor_behavior: "Emit candidate_explained_by_storage_operation." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Missing storage-operation channels block medium/high warning rather than clearing storage explanations." |
| demotion_policy: |
| storage_operation_explanation_present: "Do not block candidate emission in B; attach the explanation to suppression_resolution_state and route to C for demotion or explanation." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - high_training_like_warning_from_storage_writes_alone |
| - final_training_claim_without_storage_explanation_review |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_checkpoint_activity_adjacency_fraction |
| value: 0.50 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S45, S46, S47] |
| rationale: "Checkpoint writes can lag or trail compute, so adjacency can be weaker than same-second overlap." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "backup, restore, replication, ETL, and synthetic-data output can look checkpoint-like" |
| calibration_note: "Calibrate against local checkpoint cadence and storage-operation logs." |
| - name: max_checkpoint_activity_adjacency_seconds |
| value: 1800 |
| unit: seconds |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S31, S32, S33, S45, S46, S47] |
| rationale: "Allows delayed checkpoint flushes and object/filesystem logging lag without joining unrelated storage jobs by default." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "large asynchronous checkpoint systems may flush longer; cloud storage logs can be delayed or best-effort" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with framework, storage system, and log-delivery measurements." |
| - name: min_primary_B_channel_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: source_informed |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S31, S32, S33, S36, S37, S38, S39] |
| rationale: "B candidate promotion needs substantial activity and storage-channel coverage." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "object logs and filesystem metrics may be delayed, sampled, or not enabled" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific coverage guarantees." |
|
|
| - id: sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate_promotion |
| purpose: training_candidate_promotion |
| stage: B_training_candidate_detection |
| consumes: |
| required_prior_outputs: |
| all: |
| - large_compute_candidate |
| any: |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - fabric_parameter_update_like |
| - storage_checkpoint_state_like |
| - non_serving_workload_shape |
| derived_signals: |
| - aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| - warning_height_score |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| - achieved_operation_integral |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_large_compute_identity_overlap_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: large_compute_training_identity_unresolved |
| short_circuit_behavior: "Do not run this rule in capacity_ruled_out_for_scope segments." |
| trigger: |
| type: large_compute_plus_identity_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - label: large_compute_candidate |
| - metric: achieved_operation_integral.operation_count |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: policy_threshold_operations |
| - metric: suppression_resolution_state.strong_unresolved_suppressor_count |
| op: "==" |
| value: 0 |
| any: |
| - label: distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - label: checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| warning_height_by_score: |
| medium_training_like_warning: "large compute plus one independent training-like identity channel with checked suppressors." |
| high_training_like_warning: "large compute plus two independent aligned identity/support channels, high coverage, checked suppressors, and no unresolved C conflict." |
| max_confidence: medium |
| statement: "Policy-scale compute plus independent training-like identity evidence forms a sparse large-compute training-like candidate." |
| suppression_policy: |
| checked_suppressors: |
| - serving_counterevidence |
| - storage_operation_explanation |
| - benchmark_hpc_alternative |
| - activity_attribution_conflict |
| - capacity_claim_conflict |
| missing_suppressor_behavior: "Emit large_compute_training_identity_unresolved or inconclusive_due_to_missingness." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Large compute without identity or suppressor resolution remains unresolved." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - training_from_large_compute_alone |
| - high_warning_with_unresolved_strong_suppressor |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: policy_threshold_operations |
| value: 1.0e+25 |
| unit: operations |
| evidence_status: source_backed |
| source_refs: [S01, S03] |
| rationale: "Large-compute policy threshold." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "threshold crossing is not workload identity" |
| calibration_note: "Replace only if governing policy threshold changes." |
| - name: min_large_compute_identity_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.50 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S11, S12, S13, S14, S16, S17, S45, S46, S47] |
| rationale: "Large achieved-operation windows can be broader than identity-shape windows, so half-window overlap is enough for candidate routing." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "short identity bursts can over-promote broad compute windows; storage and benchmark alternatives remain important" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by job-level known workload traces." |
|
|
| - id: support_context_aggregation |
| purpose: support_context_aggregation |
| stage: B_training_candidate_detection |
| consumes: |
| required_prior_outputs: |
| any: |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - physical_activity_support |
| - large_model_context_support |
| - data_lifecycle_support |
| - topology_context_support |
| - lifecycle_operational_context |
| derived_signals: |
| - aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - warning_height_score |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_support_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| allowed_adjacency_seconds: |
| value_ref: max_support_candidate_adjacency_seconds |
| missing_data_behavior: "Support absence does not demote by itself; missing expected support coverage is reported." |
| aggregation_logic: |
| outputs: |
| - label: candidate_context_strengthened |
| when: "A core B candidate already exists and support overlaps or is adjacent within the configured window." |
| - label: candidate_context_weak_only |
| when: "Only weak support categories exist beside a candidate, without a second identity-shape category." |
| - label: support_present_but_no_training_identity |
| when: "Support categories exist without accelerator activity plus fabric/checkpoint identity evidence." |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: candidate_context_strengthened |
| alternate_outputs: |
| - candidate_context_weak_only |
| - support_present_but_no_training_identity |
| warning_height_effect: "May raise review priority or contribute to moving weak to medium only when core B evidence is already present and suppressors are checked; this changes routing warning height, not this support rule's standalone evidentiary confidence." |
| max_confidence: weak |
| statement: "Support context can strengthen or route a live candidate but is not primary workload identity evidence." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Missing support is recorded but does not clear or prove training." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - training_from_support_only |
| - warning_height_from_power_only |
| - warning_height_from_memory_only |
| - warning_height_from_topology_only |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_support_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.40 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S31, S32, S33, S40, S41] |
| rationale: "Support signals such as power, cooling, staging, and lifecycle events may lag or precede core activity." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "support windows can reflect unrelated physical load, data movement, or maintenance" |
| calibration_note: "Calibrate by support-source lag and local workload traces." |
| - name: max_support_candidate_adjacency_seconds |
| value: 1800 |
| unit: seconds |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S31, S32, S33, S40, S41] |
| rationale: "Allows thermal/cooling and storage lifecycle lag while keeping support local to the candidate." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "facility cooling response and storage staging can have longer lags in some sites" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with site thermal, storage, and lifecycle timing distributions." |
|
|
| - id: suppressor_and_explanation_aggregation |
| purpose: suppressor_and_explanation_aggregation |
| stage: C_discrepancy_and_explanation_review |
| consumes: |
| required_prior_outputs: |
| any: |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - serving_counterevidence |
| - storage_operation_explanation |
| - benchmark_hpc_alternative |
| - storage_activity_conflict |
| - topology_route_conflict |
| - suppressors_alternative_explanations |
| derived_signals: |
| - aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_suppressor_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| allowed_adjacency_seconds: |
| value_ref: max_suppressor_candidate_adjacency_seconds |
| missing_data_behavior: candidate_requires_manual_review |
| short_circuit_behavior: "Do not run after capacity_ruled_out_for_scope unless reviewing a separate out-of-scope or integrity claim." |
| aggregation_logic: |
| demotion_outputs: |
| - candidate_explained_by_serving |
| - candidate_explained_by_storage_operation |
| - candidate_benchmark_like |
| - candidate_hpc_mpi_alternative |
| - candidate_demoted_by_unresolved_suppressor |
| missingness_output: inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| rules: |
| - "Serving counterevidence overlapping accelerator activity demotes non-serving and fabric/checkpoint candidates." |
| - "Storage operation explanations overlapping checkpoint-like or fabric/storage activity explain those candidates unless independent fabric and non-serving identity remains." |
| - "Benchmark/HPC alternatives demote fabric-heavy candidates before high warning." |
| - "Missing expected suppressor channels cap warning height at weak and require manual review." |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: candidate_demoted_by_unresolved_suppressor |
| possible_outputs: |
| - candidate_explained_by_serving |
| - candidate_explained_by_storage_operation |
| - candidate_benchmark_like |
| - candidate_hpc_mpi_alternative |
| - inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| warning_height_effect: "Demote or block medium/high promotion until explanation is resolved." |
| max_confidence: not_applicable |
| statement: "Suppressors and benign explanations are adjudicated before final warning-height promotion." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Expected but missing suppressor channels emit inconclusive_due_to_missingness, not cleared suppressors." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - cleared_suppressors_from_missing_channels |
| - high_training_like_warning_with_unresolved_suppressor |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_suppressor_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.50 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S28, S29, S31, S32, S33, S45, S46, S47] |
| rationale: "An explanation should overlap a material portion of the candidate window before demoting it." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "broad maintenance or backup windows can over-explain unrelated activity" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by operation-log precision and workload-specific explanation coverage." |
| - name: max_suppressor_candidate_adjacency_seconds |
| value: 1800 |
| unit: seconds |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S28, S31, S32, S33] |
| rationale: "Allows best-effort network/storage log delivery and adjacent storage operations without joining distant events." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "cloud logs can be delayed longer; high-throughput storage operations can span broader windows" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source delivery delay and operation-duration distributions." |
|
|
| - id: discrepancy_targeted_escalation |
| purpose: discrepancy_escalation_aggregation |
| stage: C_discrepancy_and_explanation_review |
| consumes: |
| required_prior_outputs: |
| any: |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| - large_compute_capacity_conflict |
| - large_compute_training_identity_unresolved |
| - candidate_requires_manual_review |
| rule_output_categories: |
| any: |
| - activity_attribution_conflict |
| - capacity_claim_conflict |
| - physical_timeline_conflict |
| - power_activity_conflict |
| - fabric_mapping_conflict |
| - storage_activity_conflict |
| - telemetry_missingness_conflict |
| - health_throttle_conflict |
| - topology_route_conflict |
| derived_signals: |
| - aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| - capacity_segment_window |
| - rule_output_join_window |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: aggregation_candidate_review_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_overlap_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_discrepancy_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| short_circuit_behavior: "Do not run globally after capacity_ruled_out_for_scope; run only for live candidates, capacity conflicts, or decision-blocking missingness." |
| trigger: |
| type: targeted_C_routing_logic |
| conditions: |
| any: |
| - label: distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - label: checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - label: sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| - label: large_compute_capacity_conflict |
| - label: candidate_requires_manual_review |
| - category: telemetry_missingness_conflict |
| - category: capacity_claim_conflict |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: integrity_review_required |
| possible_outputs: |
| - activity_attribution_conflict |
| - capacity_claim_conflict |
| - inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| - candidate_requires_manual_review |
| warning_height_effect: "Unresolved high/critical C findings block high warning and route to manual review." |
| max_confidence: high |
| statement: "Targeted C findings are escalated only when they adjudicate a live candidate, capacity conflict, or missingness that blocks a decision." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Decision-blocking gaps emit inconclusive_due_to_missingness." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - global_C_required_after_capacity_ruleout |
| - high_warning_with_unresolved_capacity_conflict |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_discrepancy_candidate_overlap_fraction |
| value: 0.50 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S21, S22, S23, S26, S28, S29, S31, S35] |
| rationale: "A discrepancy should affect a material part of the candidate or capacity-conflict window before blocking final routing." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "short severe conflicts may still matter; long audit windows can dilute brief manipulation or outages" |
| calibration_note: "Tune by severity, source precision, and audit policy." |
|
|
| - id: no_training_candidate_coverage_gate |
| purpose: negative_screen_integrity |
| stage: C_discrepancy_and_explanation_review |
| consumes: |
| required_capacity_outputs: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| excluded_prior_outputs: |
| any: |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| - large_compute_candidate |
| rule_output_categories: |
| optional: |
| - telemetry_missingness_conflict |
| - activity_attribution_conflict |
| - fabric_mapping_conflict |
| derived_signals: |
| - capacity_segment_window |
| - aggregation_candidate_seed_window |
| - negative_screen_required_coverage_state |
| - telemetry_coverage_fraction |
| - clock_aligned_overlap_window |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: capacity_segment_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_primary_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_primary_coverage_fraction |
| clock_alignment_confidence: |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_clock_alignment_confidence |
| missing_data_behavior: inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| short_circuit_behavior: "Do not run after capacity_ruled_out_for_scope; this is only for live capacity segments where B found no candidate." |
| global_C_policy: "Run coverage, scope, clock, and missingness checks needed to trust the negative screen; do not run unrelated suppressor or discrepancy checks globally." |
| trigger: |
| type: negative_screen_integrity_logic |
| conditions: |
| all: |
| - capacity_output: |
| any: |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| - metric: negative_screen_required_coverage_state.primary_activity_coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_primary_coverage_fraction |
| - metric: negative_screen_required_coverage_state.identity_shape_coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_identity_coverage_fraction |
| - metric: negative_screen_required_coverage_state.scope_mapping_coverage_fraction |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_scope_mapping_coverage_fraction |
| - metric: negative_screen_required_coverage_state.clock_alignment_confidence |
| op: ">=" |
| value_ref: min_negative_screen_clock_alignment_confidence |
| none: |
| - label: distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - label: checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - label: sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| - label: large_compute_candidate |
| - metric: negative_screen_required_coverage_state.decision_blocking_missingness |
| op: "==" |
| value: true |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: negative_screen_coverage_sufficient |
| alternate_outputs: |
| - negative_screen_blocked_by_missingness |
| - inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| - integrity_review_required |
| warning_height: none |
| max_confidence: conservative_bound |
| statement: "No B candidate was detected in a live segment and the required primary, identity-shape, scope-mapping, and clock-alignment coverage is sufficient to treat the absence of evidence as a covered negative screen." |
| missing_data_behavior: "If required negative-screen channels are missing, emit negative_screen_blocked_by_missingness or inconclusive_due_to_missingness instead of a clean negative screen." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - no_training_outside_monitored_scope |
| - no_training_from_uncovered_channels |
| - no_training_from_missing_activity_telemetry |
| - global_C_clearance |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_negative_screen_primary_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S36, S37, S38, S39] |
| rationale: "Reuses existing positive-candidate coverage defaults; no-candidate routing is trustworthy only when primary activity channels substantially cover the live segment." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "collector outages, disabled profiling counters, or unmapped devices can create false negative screens" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific accelerator telemetry coverage requirements." |
| - name: min_negative_screen_identity_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S28, S29, S31, S32, S33, S42, S43, S45, S46, S47] |
| rationale: "Fabric/checkpoint identity channels must be substantially covered before their absence is meaningful." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "sampled flow logs, disabled object logs, or unmapped fabric ports can hide identity-shape evidence" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with source-specific fabric and storage logging coverage." |
| - name: min_negative_screen_scope_mapping_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S19, S20, S23, S26, S35] |
| rationale: "A negative screen must map telemetry to the monitored scope well enough to know which assets were covered." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "scheduler, billing, or provider scope mismatch can make active assets invisible to the monitored scope" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with site-specific scheduler, provider, and asset-mapping coverage." |
| - name: min_negative_screen_clock_alignment_confidence |
| value: 0.80 |
| unit: score_0_to_1 |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S18, S21, S22, S27, S28, S29, S31, S35] |
| rationale: "Negative screens need aligned source windows so absent activity is not an artifact of clock drift or delayed records." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "coarse aggregation, clock drift, or delayed logs can move evidence outside the checked window" |
| calibration_note: "Replace with measured timestamp accuracy and delivery-delay bounds." |
|
|
| - id: final_algorithm_claim_routing |
| purpose: final_claim_routing |
| stage: final_claim_routing |
| consumes: |
| required_prior_outputs: |
| any: |
| - capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| - capacity_possible_for_scope |
| - capacity_limited_but_not_ruled_out |
| - capacity_unknown_due_to_missing_inputs |
| - distributed_training_like_candidate |
| - checkpoint_training_like_candidate |
| - sparse_large_compute_training_like_candidate |
| - candidate_explained_by_serving |
| - candidate_explained_by_storage_operation |
| - candidate_benchmark_like |
| - candidate_hpc_mpi_alternative |
| - negative_screen_coverage_sufficient |
| - negative_screen_blocked_by_missingness |
| - integrity_review_required |
| - inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| derived_signals: |
| - capacity_segment_window |
| - aggregation_candidate_final_window |
| - negative_screen_required_coverage_state |
| - warning_height_score |
| - suppression_resolution_state |
| time_alignment: |
| segmentation: capacity_segment_window |
| scope_match: same_monitored_scope_or_mapped_child_scope |
| minimum_output_window_coverage_fraction: |
| value_ref: min_final_routing_window_coverage_fraction |
| missing_data_behavior: inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| short_circuit_behavior: "If capacity_ruled_out_for_scope was emitted for the segment, final route is rule-out and B/C outputs are absent for that segment." |
| aggregation_logic: |
| final_routes: |
| - final_claim: capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| when: "A_capacity_gate emitted a conservative high-coverage rule-out." |
| - final_claim: high_training_like_warning |
| when: "At least two independent aligned B identity/support categories are present, warning_height_score.high is true, suppressors are checked, and no unresolved high/critical C conflict exists." |
| - final_claim: medium_training_like_warning |
| when: "One core identity-shape pathway aligns with activity and capacity remains live, suppressors are checked or weakly unresolved, and C has no blocking conflict." |
| - final_claim: weak_training_like_candidate |
| when: "A sparse B candidate exists but support, suppressor, coverage, or C review is incomplete." |
| - final_claim: candidate_explained_or_demoted |
| when: "Suppressor/explanation aggregation explains or demotes the candidate." |
| - final_claim: no_training_like_candidate_detected_in_covered_live_segment |
| when: "Capacity remains live, no B candidate labels exist, negative_screen_coverage_sufficient was emitted, and no decision-blocking missingness exists." |
| - final_claim: inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| when: "Missing data blocks capacity, identity, suppressor, or discrepancy adjudication." |
| emitted_claim: |
| label: final_algorithm_facing_claim |
| final_claim_labels: |
| - capacity_ruled_out_for_scope |
| - weak_training_like_candidate |
| - medium_training_like_warning |
| - high_training_like_warning |
| - candidate_explained_or_demoted |
| - no_training_like_candidate_detected_in_covered_live_segment |
| - inconclusive_due_to_missingness |
| max_confidence: high |
| statement: "Final route for each monitored scope/window segment, with warning height, caveats, suppressor state, and missingness." |
| missing_data_behavior: "Missingness is surfaced as caveat or final inconclusive route; never as negative evidence." |
| cannot_conclude: |
| - binary_training_truth |
| - no_training_from_missing_B |
| - cleared_C_from_absent_C |
| calibration_defaults: |
| - name: min_final_routing_window_coverage_fraction |
| value: 0.75 |
| unit: fraction |
| evidence_status: calibration_default |
| source_refs: [S07, S08, S09, S18, S23, S26, S28, S29, S31, S35, S40, S41] |
| rationale: "Final routing should cover most of the candidate segment, with lower confidence or inconclusive output below this value." |
| counterevidence_or_failure_modes: |
| - "short high-confidence subwindows can be obscured by broad audit windows" |
| calibration_note: "Report subwindow-level final routes and tune by source coverage." |
|
|
