EXP-007 precon bench snapshot 2026-10-14 (code 38e3285f1d6cc1ac663b6448dcdc5335332166b8-dirty)

README.md

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+---
+pretty_name: MTG Precon Cut/Add Benchmark (EXP-007, private)
+license: other
+license_name: mixed-mtgjson-mit-edhrec-permission-private
+language:
+  - en
+tags:
+  - magic-the-gathering
+  - benchmark
+  - deck-building
+  - agents
+size_categories:
+  - 1K<n<10K
+configs:
+  - config_name: decks
+    default: true
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: data/decks.parquet
+  - config_name: labels
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: data/labels.parquet
+  - config_name: precons
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: data/precons.parquet
+  - config_name: commanders
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: data/commanders.parquet
+  - config_name: splits
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: data/splits.parquet
+---
+
+# MTG Precon Cut/Add Benchmark (EXP-007)
+
+> **Private dataset. Do not mirror, republish or make public.** The `labels` and `commanders`
+> configs are derived from EDHREC data that was collected with permission for private
+> evaluation only.
+
+This is a benchmark of deck-building judgement on Magic: The Gathering Commander preconstructed
+decks ("precons"). The agent sees a precon's 100 cards (as card text) and must pick the cards to
+**cut** and the cards to **add**. Its picks are graded against what thousands of players actually
+cut from and added to that precon, as aggregated by EDHREC.
+
+Spec: `docs/benchmark_precon_plan.md` in the `mtg-search` repo (GitHub issue #3). Schema contract:
+`bench/precon/schema.md`. Build code: `bench/precon/` (built from git `38e3285f1d6cc1ac663b6448dcdc5335332166b8-dirty`).
+
+- **Snapshot:** EDHREC labels 2026-10-14 (Next.js buildId `PdCFALsQSMQepvm3iBv87`); MTGJSON
+  `5.3.0+20261013`; Scryfall `cards.parquet` `2026-10-14T09:01:55.948+00:00`.
+- **183 precons** (MTGJSON Commander decks; Collector's Edition duplicates dropped), of
+  which **175** are matched to an EDHREC precon page.
+- **16719 labels** (add 8370, add_land 2182, cut 3675, cut_land 2492).
+- **Splits** (cutoff `2025-11-01`): all precons dev 15, test 20, train 148; scored dev 15, test 14, train 106.
+
+Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Wizards of the Coast, EDHREC or Scryfall.
+Magic: The Gathering card names and text are © Wizards of the Coast (Fan Content Policy).
+
+## Sources and terms
+
+| Source | Used for | Terms |
+|---|---|---|
+| [MTGJSON](https://mtgjson.com) `DeckList.json`, `AllDeckFiles`, `SetList.json`, `AtomicCards.json` | official precon decklists, release dates, set families, first printings | MIT licence |
+| [EDHREC](https://edhrec.com/precon) precon pages (`__NEXT_DATA__` JSON) | cut/add lists and rates, number of decks, commander counts | Collected **with permission from EDHREC** (owner's statement). Derived labels are kept **private** and are not redistributed; write-ups report aggregate scores only. |
+| [Scryfall](https://scryfall.com/docs/api/bulk-data) bulk `oracle_cards` (our `cards.parquet`) | `oracle_id` mapping, colour identity, legality, land/basic flags | Scryfall bulk-data terms; WotC Fan Content Policy |
+
+**EDHREC fetch policy (as run):** one pass over the `/precon` index plus each precon page (main
+commander only, 178 HTTP requests incl. `robots.txt`); at most 1 request per 5 s,
+single-threaded; User-Agent `mtg-search research benchmark (contact: kasper@colourbox.com; ...)`;
+robots.txt checked for every URL (`/precon/` is allowed); every response cached on disk and never
+re-fetched; exponential back-off on errors / 429 (no 429s occurred). Fetch log and stats are in
+`manifest.json`.
+
+## Configs
+
+All card references are Scryfall `oracle_id`s (oracle level). `precon_id` is an opaque id,
+`pc-` + sha1(MTGJSON deck file name)[:10], identical across configs.
+
+### `decks` — task input (safe to show the agent)
+One row per precon: `precon_id`, `commander_oracle_ids`, `commander_names`, `color_identity`,
+`cards` (list of `{oracle_id, name, qty, is_land, is_basic, is_commander}`, the full official
+100-card list incl. commanders), `n_cards`. **No** product/deck name, set code, release date,
+prices, EDHREC rank or tags. Card text is rendered by the harness from `cards.parquet`.
+
+### `labels` — gold (never shown to the agent)
+One row per (precon, card, kind): `kind` ∈ `cut`, `cut_land`, `add`, `add_land` (EDHREC
+"Cards/Lands to Cut/Add"); `list_rank`; `rate` (cuts: EDHREC `unpopularity` *u*; adds:
+*r* = `num_decks / potential_decks`); `num_decks`, `potential_decks` (sample size), `synergy`,
+`lift`; `gain`, `gain_syn`; `is_land`; `headline`; `in_precon`; `is_new_in_product`;
+`in_color_identity`; `commander_legal`.
+
+### `precons` — metadata (reporting, slicing, memorisation probe; not a task input)
+`deck_name`, `product`, `set_code`, `parent_set_code`, `release_date`, `mtgjson_file`,
+`mtgjson_type`, `source` (WotC decklist URL), `edhrec_slug`, `edhrec_url`, `edhrec_group`,
+`match_method`, `edhrec_deck_jaccard`, `potential_decks`, `n_colors`, `is_universes_beyond`,
+`is_secret_lair`, `commander_names`.
+
+### `commanders` — EDHREC `precon_commander_counts`
+`precon_id`, `oracle_id`, `name`, `num_decks`, `is_precon_commander` (the commander whose page
+supplies the labels). Labels are always for the precon's main commander page.
+
+### `splits`
+`precon_id`, `release_date`, `split` ∈ train/dev/gap/test, `scored`, `exclude_reason`, `cutoff`.
+
+Extra files: `manifest.json` (snapshot dates, URLs, fetch stats, counts, parameters, git sha,
+file hashes), `tag_denylist.json` (eval-mode oracle-tag deny-list), `tag_audit.parquet`
+(tag-enrichment audit on train cuts).
+
+## Gains (plan §6 defaults)
+
+| | gain 3 | gain 2 | gain 1 | gain 0 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| cut, by *u* | u ≥ 0.50 | 0.30 ≤ u < 0.50 | 0.15 ≤ u < 0.30 | below, or not listed |
+| add, by *r* | r ≥ 0.30 | 0.15 ≤ r < 0.30 | 0.05 ≤ r < 0.15 | below, or not listed |
+
+`gain_syn` = `gain · 1[synergy > 0]` for adds (generic-staple discount; equals `gain` for cuts).
+The plan intends to re-fix thresholds on the train split; scorers may recompute grades from `rate`.
+Headline metrics use `headline = True` rows (nonland `cut` / `add`); land kinds are kept for
+diagnostics.
+
+## Splits
+
+Split key = MTGJSON release date relative to a model training cutoff *C* (default `2025-11-01`,
+an assumption because GLM-5.3's cutoff is unknown): train < C−12 mo ≤ dev < C ≤ gap < C+2 mo ≤
+test. A precon is `scored` only if it has an EDHREC page, `potential_decks ≥ 300`, was released
+at least 8 weeks before the snapshot, is not an MTGO theme deck (`TD0`), and is not in the gap.
+Recompute for another cutoff with
+`python bench/precon/build_dataset.py --snapshot 2026-10-14 --splits-only --cutoff YYYY-MM-DD`.
+
+Slices: `is_universes_beyond`, `is_secret_lair`, `n_colors` (precons), `headline` / `is_land`
+and `is_new_in_product` (labels).
+
+## Matching
+
+- **MTGJSON → oracle_id:** each card's `identifiers.scryfallOracleId` (checked against
+  `cards.parquet`), falling back to exact normalised name / face name.
+- **EDHREC → oracle_id:** exact normalised name, then face name (DFC / split / adventure), then
+  the front half of `A // B`, then MTGJSON `flavorName` (in-universe Universes Beyond names, e.g.
+  "The Five Arrive"). Unmapped names are logged in the build's `unmapped.json` (0 in this build).
+- **EDHREC page → MTGJSON deck:** same set of commander oracle_ids and same set code; fallback
+  is the best card-overlap Jaccard ≥ 0.7 within the set code. `edhrec_deck_jaccard` records the
+  overlap between EDHREC's embedded list and the MTGJSON list.
+
+## Leakage controls (plan §7)
+
+- Task inputs (`decks`) hold only card identifiers and names, never product or deck names,
+  release dates, prices, popularity or tags; the build asserts the allowed column set.
+- Labels live in separate files (`labels`, `commanders`) from inputs.
+- `tag_denylist.json` lists evaluative / precon-identifying oracle tags (`meme`,
+  `weaker-in-singleton-formats`, `stronger-in-singleton-formats`, `staple-with-set-s-mechanic`,
+  `planeswalker-deck-staples`, patterns `cycle-*-face-commander`, `*precon*`, `*staple*`) that the
+  harness must not render in eval mode; the train-split tag audit is in `tag_audit.parquet`.
+- Test split is post-cutoff by release date; product names are available only in `precons` for
+  the memorisation probe.
+
+## Limitations
+
+- Ground truth is crowd behaviour (a proxy for merit), aggregated by EDHREC; lists are truncated
+  (about 50 adds / 30 cuts), so add/cut scores are lower bounds and unlisted cards score 0.
+- `unpopularity` semantics are not documented by EDHREC; `potential_decks` counts decks EDHREC
+  attributes to the precon's commander.
+- Old precons often have few decks (< 300) and are not scored; the post-cutoff test pool is small
+  (wide CIs).
+- Universes Beyond top adds are often same-franchise cards (`is_new_in_product`); this is flagged,
+  not removed. `is_new_in_product` uses the earliest MTGJSON printing in the precon's set family.
+- EDHREC's embedded list can differ slightly from the official list (see `edhrec_deck_jaccard`);
+  the input is always the official MTGJSON list.
+- Labels are a single snapshot; rates drift as more decks are registered.

data/commanders.parquet

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data/decks.parquet

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data/labels.parquet

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manifest.json

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+{
+  "dataset": "kasper-cbx/mtg-precon-bench",
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "snapshot_date": "2026-10-14",
+  "built_from_git_sha": "38e3285f1d6cc1ac663b6448dcdc5335332166b8-dirty",
+  "sources": {
+    "mtgjson": {
+      "url": "https://mtgjson.com/api/v5/",
+      "files": [
+        "DeckList.json",
+        "SetList.json",
+        "AllDeckFiles.tar.gz",
+        "AtomicCards.json.gz"
+      ],
+      "version": "5.3.0+20261013",
+      "date": "2026-10-13",
+      "license": "MIT"
+    },
+    "edhrec": {
+      "index_url": "https://edhrec.com/precon",
+      "page_url_pattern": "https://edhrec.com/precon/<slug>",
+      "build_id": "PdCFALsQSMQepvm3iBv87",
+      "user_agent": "mtg-search research benchmark (contact: kasper@colourbox.com; EDHREC permission granted; 1 req/5s)",
+      "min_interval_s": 5.0,
+      "requests": 178,
+      "status_counts": {
+        "200": 178
+      },
+      "first_fetch": "2026-10-14T13:31:11+00:00",
+      "last_fetch": "2026-10-14T13:46:58+00:00",
+      "pages_missing_from_cache": [],
+      "permission_note": "Owner states EDHREC granted permission to collect precon cut/add data; derived labels kept private, no redistribution."
+    },
+    "scryfall_cards_parquet": {
+      "scryfall_updated_at": "2026-10-14T09:01:55.948+00:00",
+      "built_at": "2026-10-14T13:33:57+00:00",
+      "card_count": 34646
+    }
+  },
+  "split_rule": {
+    "cutoff": "2025-11-01",
+    "cutoff_note": "GLM-5.3 training cutoff unknown; default assumption",
+    "train": "release < cutoff-12mo",
+    "dev": "cutoff-12mo <= release < cutoff",
+    "gap": "cutoff <= release < cutoff+2mo (unused)",
+    "test": "release >= cutoff+2mo",
+    "gates": {
+      "min_potential_decks": 300,
+      "min_age_days": 56,
+      "excluded_sets": [
+        "TD0"
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "gain_thresholds": {
+    "cut_unpopularity": {
+      "3": 0.5,
+      "2": 0.3,
+      "1": 0.15
+    },
+    "add_rate": {
+      "3": 0.3,
+      "2": 0.15,
+      "1": 0.05
+    }
+  },
+  "defaults": {
+    "bracket": 3,
+    "max_game_changers": 3,
+    "lands_in_headline": false,
+    "universes_beyond": "included, flagged",
+    "secret_lair": "included, flagged",
+    "headline_add_gain": "gain (raw); gain_syn secondary"
+  },
+  "counts": {
+    "mtgjson_commander_decks": 199,
+    "collector_edition_duplicates_dropped": 16,
+    "precons": 183,
+    "edhrec_index_pages": 176,
+    "edhrec_matched": 175,
+    "edhrec_unmatched": [
+      {
+        "slug": "odds-and-ends",
+        "set": "sld",
+        "best_jaccard": 0.064
+      }
+    ],
+    "deck_cards_total": 15189,
+    "unmapped_mtgjson_cards": 0,
+    "unmapped_edhrec_names": 0,
+    "labels": 16719,
+    "labels_by_kind": {
+      "add": 8370,
+      "add_land": 2182,
+      "cut": 3675,
+      "cut_land": 2492
+    },
+    "headline_labels_gain_ge2_per_scored_precon": {
+      "cut": 19.75,
+      "add": 21.01
+    },
+    "splits_all": {
+      "train": 148,
+      "dev": 15,
+      "test": 20
+    },
+    "splits_scored": {
+      "train": 106,
+      "dev": 15,
+      "test": 14
+    },
+    "exclude_reasons": {
+      "excluded_product(td0/mtgo)": 2,
+      "potential_decks<300": 32,
+      "no_edhrec_page": 8,
+      "released<56d_before_snapshot": 6
+    },
+    "tag_audit": {
+      "n_cut": 2226,
+      "n_kept": 4222,
+      "flagged": 59
+    }
+  },
+  "files": {
+    "commanders.parquet": "41720454e34b7760fcf4d3fd41897afe6e914e97233e2b8bdd2bad3e995fd532",
+    "decks.parquet": "2588d60196bda1407d5282ecf491aa53c07a836b57e3836fdead0a3209ff2f71",
+    "labels.parquet": "fce0ea90552bb274cd43fc4e8bd4da71f22b3afaa2e61a0434435afbba2d1c88",
+    "precons.parquet": "9eb3efb6262dc1e4fd2285eb6c1c948c4a56df60300f34ce0fe255adb4e041b5",
+    "splits.parquet": "e1c114ae07b2b748c01bd5d4a9319ea5672d70484ae34cec4c17750ff9199402",
+    "tag_audit.parquet": "058aa87facc8c4277a753f82d2c4d01ff522c0eb59a61bb64039a09cd7bded07"
+  }
+}

tag_audit.parquet

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tag_denylist.json

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+{
+  "exact": [
+    "meme",
+    "weaker-in-singleton-formats",
+    "stronger-in-singleton-formats",
+    "staple-with-set-s-mechanic",
+    "planeswalker-deck-staples"
+  ],
+  "patterns": [
+    "cycle-*-face-commander",
+    "*precon*",
+    "*staple*",
+    "cycle-40k-*",
+    "cycle-afc-*",
+    "cycle-blc-*",
+    "cycle-brc-*",
+    "cycle-c13-*",
+    "cycle-c14-*",
+    "cycle-c15-*",
+    "cycle-c16-*",
+    "cycle-c17-*",
+    "cycle-c18-*",
+    "cycle-c19-*",
+    "cycle-c20-*",
+    "cycle-c21-*",
+    "cycle-clb-*",
+    "cycle-cm2-*",
+    "cycle-cma-*",
+    "cycle-cmd-*",
+    "cycle-cmm-*",
+    "cycle-cmr-*",
+    "cycle-dmc-*",
+    "cycle-drc-*",
+    "cycle-dsc-*",
+    "cycle-ecc-*",
+    "cycle-eoc-*",
+    "cycle-fdc-*",
+    "cycle-fic-*",
+    "cycle-frc-*",
+    "cycle-khc-*",
+    "cycle-lcc-*",
+    "cycle-ltc-*",
+    "cycle-m3c-*",
+    "cycle-mic-*",
+    "cycle-mkc-*",
+    "cycle-moc-*",
+    "cycle-msc-*",
+    "cycle-ncc-*",
+    "cycle-nec-*",
+    "cycle-onc-*",
+    "cycle-otc-*",
+    "cycle-pip-*",
+    "cycle-scd-*",
+    "cycle-sld-*",
+    "cycle-soc-*",
+    "cycle-td0-*",
+    "cycle-tdc-*",
+    "cycle-tmc-*",
+    "cycle-voc-*",
+    "cycle-who-*",
+    "cycle-woc-*",
+    "cycle-znc-*"
+  ],
+  "matched_tags_in_cards_parquet": [
+    "cycle-40k-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-40k-face-commander",
+    "cycle-40k-saga",
+    "cycle-aer-precon-tutor",
+    "cycle-afc-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-afc-d20-spell",
+    "cycle-afc-endeavor",
+    "cycle-afc-face-commander",
+    "cycle-blc-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-blc-face-commander",
+    "cycle-blc-talent",
+    "cycle-c13-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c13-curse",
+    "cycle-c13-face-commander",
+    "cycle-c13-reprint-commander",
+    "cycle-c13-tempting-offer",
+    "cycle-c14-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c14-historical-legend",
+    "cycle-c14-lieutenant",
+    "cycle-c14-offering",
+    "cycle-c14-planeswalker",
+    "cycle-c15-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c15-commander-reference",
+    "cycle-c15-confluence",
+    "cycle-c15-experience-commander",
+    "cycle-c15-myriad-creature",
+    "cycle-c15-reprint-commander",
+    "cycle-c16-basic-landcycling",
+    "cycle-c16-face-commander",
+    "cycle-c16-m-partner",
+    "cycle-c16-r-partner",
+    "cycle-c16-u-monocolor",
+    "cycle-c16-undaunted-spell",
+    "cycle-c17-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c17-curse",
+    "cycle-c17-eminence-commander",
+    "cycle-c17-kindred-spell",
+    "cycle-c18-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c18-commander-storm",
+    "cycle-c18-lieutenant",
+    "cycle-c18-planeswalker",
+    "cycle-c18-signature-spell",
+    "cycle-c18-sub-commander",
+    "cycle-c19-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c19-face-commander",
+    "cycle-c19-planeswalker",
+    "cycle-c19-secondary-commander",
+    "cycle-c19-signature-spell",
+    "cycle-c20-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c20-bonder-partner",
+    "cycle-c20-face-commander",
+    "cycle-c20-free-spell",
+    "cycle-c20-impetus",
+    "cycle-c20-monster-partner",
+    "cycle-c20-planeswalker",
+    "cycle-c21-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-c21-college-spell",
+    "cycle-c21-face-commander",
+    "cycle-c21-mono-legend",
+    "cycle-c21-technique",
+    "cycle-clb-adventurer",
+    "cycle-clb-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-clb-ancient-dragon",
+    "cycle-clb-back-enemy-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-backward-ally-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-c-background",
+    "cycle-clb-c-d20",
+    "cycle-clb-dethrone-background",
+    "cycle-clb-draft-signpost",
+    "cycle-clb-face-commander",
+    "cycle-clb-forward-ally-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-forward-enemy-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-gem-dragon",
+    "cycle-clb-god",
+    "cycle-clb-invoker",
+    "cycle-clb-legend-spell",
+    "cycle-clb-orb-of-dragonkind",
+    "cycle-clb-precon-background",
+    "cycle-clb-r-background",
+    "cycle-clb-r-mono-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-r-two-color-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-thriving-gate",
+    "cycle-clb-tricolor-legend",
+    "cycle-clb-u-background",
+    "cycle-clb-u-d20",
+    "cycle-clb-u-initiative",
+    "cycle-cmd-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-cmd-enemy-legend",
+    "cycle-cmd-face-commander",
+    "cycle-cmd-join-forces",
+    "cycle-cmd-vow",
+    "cycle-cmm-alt-commander",
+    "cycle-cmm-draft-signpost",
+    "cycle-cmm-face-commander",
+    "cycle-cmm-m-mono-legend",
+    "cycle-cmm-r-two-color-legend",
+    "cycle-cmm-sliver",
+    "cycle-cmm-tricolor-legend",
+    "cycle-cmr-artifact-partner",
+    "cycle-cmr-backward-partner",
+    "cycle-cmr-bond-land",
+    "cycle-cmr-court",
+    "cycle-cmr-draft-signpost",
+    "cycle-cmr-face-commander",
+    "cycle-cmr-familiar",
+    "cycle-cmr-forward-partner",
+    "cycle-cmr-m-partner",
+    "cycle-cmr-m-sorcery",
+    "cycle-cmr-r-partner",
+    "cycle-cmr-r-two-color",
+    "cycle-cmr-tricolor-legend",
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