llmledger / estimates.csv
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Version 1.19 data, as of 20 October 2026
5270a75 verified
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5.3 kB
definition,days,outcome,estimate,ci_low,ci_high,at_risk
main,30,price,0.057704,0.051392,0.064449,3834
main,30,retirement,0.037,0.031824,0.042488,3834
main,30,removed,0.098595,0.090577,0.10739,3834
main,30,none,0.806701,0.795864,0.817129,3834
main,90,price,0.083647,0.075928,0.092403,2718
main,90,retirement,0.05525,0.049063,0.06164,2718
main,90,removed,0.128548,0.119054,0.138295,2718
main,90,none,0.732555,0.71965,0.744926,2718
main,180,price,0.1068,0.097075,0.11631,2342
main,180,retirement,0.08071,0.072871,0.089506,2342
main,180,removed,0.137371,0.127359,0.146409,2342
main,180,none,0.675119,0.66133,0.688724,2342
main,365,price,0.144657,0.133537,0.156901,1220
main,365,retirement,0.172633,0.159689,0.185761,1220
main,365,removed,0.158947,0.147735,0.169092,1220
main,365,none,0.523763,0.507003,0.541024,1220
main,730,price,0.179858,0.166849,0.19471,379
main,730,retirement,0.306942,0.288399,0.3259,379
main,730,removed,0.228338,0.211545,0.244146,379
main,730,none,0.284862,0.264196,0.304375,379
headline,30,price,0.049866,0.044345,0.056085,3853
headline,30,retirement,0.037013,0.031842,0.042503,3853
headline,30,removed,0.099582,0.091367,0.108487,3853
headline,30,none,0.813539,0.802735,0.823957,3853
headline,90,price,0.073856,0.066709,0.081645,2737
headline,90,retirement,0.055334,0.049105,0.06176,2737
headline,90,removed,0.129855,0.12038,0.139633,2737
headline,90,none,0.740955,0.727885,0.753133,2737
headline,180,price,0.094072,0.085565,0.102705,2359
headline,180,retirement,0.082854,0.074559,0.091616,2359
headline,180,removed,0.138722,0.128846,0.147567,2359
headline,180,none,0.684352,0.67048,0.698347,2359
headline,365,price,0.123283,0.113034,0.134317,1247
headline,365,retirement,0.176755,0.163723,0.189648,1247
headline,365,removed,0.161495,0.150299,0.171624,1247
headline,365,none,0.538467,0.522551,0.555778,1247
headline,730,price,0.155715,0.142755,0.169532,381
headline,730,retirement,0.31931,0.299687,0.339238,381
headline,730,removed,0.232761,0.215301,0.248819,381
headline,730,none,0.292213,0.271623,0.312529,381
no_first_week,30,price,0.028564,0.024015,0.033354,3970
no_first_week,30,retirement,0.037172,0.031956,0.042678,3970
no_first_week,30,removed,0.101255,0.093049,0.11007,3970
no_first_week,30,none,0.833008,0.822369,0.843159,3970
no_first_week,90,price,0.054852,0.048329,0.062247,2841
no_first_week,90,retirement,0.056524,0.050233,0.063151,2841
no_first_week,90,removed,0.131085,0.121528,0.140319,2841
no_first_week,90,none,0.757538,0.744753,0.769762,2841
no_first_week,180,price,0.07856,0.069966,0.087025,2450
no_first_week,180,retirement,0.082524,0.074416,0.091038,2450
no_first_week,180,removed,0.139812,0.1298,0.148917,2450
no_first_week,180,none,0.699104,0.684671,0.712692,2450
no_first_week,365,price,0.118905,0.108373,0.130762,1233
no_first_week,365,retirement,0.17606,0.162775,0.189152,1233
no_first_week,365,removed,0.161985,0.150512,0.171901,1233
no_first_week,365,none,0.54305,0.526107,0.560768,1233
no_first_week,730,price,0.155095,0.142202,0.16981,379
no_first_week,730,retirement,0.317107,0.29793,0.33648,379
no_first_week,730,removed,0.234629,0.21737,0.25045,379
no_first_week,730,none,0.293168,0.271198,0.31372,379
real_only,30,price,0.034025,0.028944,0.039013,3956
real_only,30,retirement,0.03792,0.032566,0.043604,3956
real_only,30,removed,0.029301,0.025015,0.033763,3956
real_only,30,none,0.898754,0.890657,0.907232,3956
real_only,90,price,0.060482,0.052976,0.068166,2832
real_only,90,retirement,0.0584,0.051712,0.065185,2832
real_only,90,removed,0.03694,0.031865,0.042066,2832
real_only,90,none,0.844178,0.833286,0.854446,2832
real_only,180,price,0.084557,0.075775,0.094008,2458
real_only,180,retirement,0.086559,0.077928,0.096162,2458
real_only,180,removed,0.044837,0.038916,0.050563,2458
real_only,180,none,0.784047,0.770687,0.79736,2458
real_only,365,price,0.121281,0.110646,0.133498,1253
real_only,365,retirement,0.195442,0.180184,0.210069,1253
real_only,365,removed,0.056444,0.049671,0.063692,1253
real_only,365,none,0.626833,0.609772,0.644328,1253
real_only,730,price,0.164504,0.149083,0.180235,382
real_only,730,retirement,0.361519,0.33919,0.385503,382
real_only,730,removed,0.092476,0.079204,0.105606,382
real_only,730,none,0.381502,0.355887,0.404978,382
likely_real,30,price,0.018965,0.015151,0.022737,4016
likely_real,30,retirement,0.038114,0.0326,0.043837,4016
likely_real,30,removed,0.029298,0.025012,0.033759,4016
likely_real,30,none,0.913622,0.906034,0.921305,4016
likely_real,90,price,0.042975,0.036796,0.049537,2889
likely_real,90,retirement,0.059675,0.052946,0.066708,2889
likely_real,90,removed,0.036936,0.031859,0.042076,2889
likely_real,90,none,0.860414,0.850165,0.870165,2889
likely_real,180,price,0.064185,0.056507,0.072591,2509
likely_real,180,retirement,0.089369,0.080631,0.098579,2509
likely_real,180,removed,0.044829,0.038916,0.050551,2509
likely_real,180,none,0.801617,0.788145,0.813972,2509
likely_real,365,price,0.099313,0.088994,0.110518,1297
likely_real,365,retirement,0.199305,0.183444,0.214,1297
likely_real,365,removed,0.056435,0.049615,0.063622,1297
likely_real,365,none,0.644948,0.627217,0.661632,1297
likely_real,730,price,0.140551,0.126237,0.15606,400
likely_real,730,retirement,0.373344,0.350616,0.397018,400
likely_real,730,removed,0.093768,0.081241,0.107245,400
likely_real,730,none,0.392337,0.366946,0.416784,400