add manifold benchmark dataset (belief+trade prepared splits/support)

.gitattributes

@@ -70,3 +70,4 @@ legacy/v1/v1_profilegen/state/train_rows.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -te
 legacy/v1/v1_profilegen/state/validation_rows.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 Belief/metadata/profile_state_train_rows.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 Belief/metadata/profile_state_validation_rows.jsonl filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
+manifold/**/*.csv filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

manifold/README.md

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+# Manifold UserModeling Benchmark (Belief WIP)
+
+This repository mirrors the Polymarket benchmark layout and currently focuses on **Belief-layer data preparation**.
+
+## Folder Layout
+
+- `dataset/Belief/source/`
+- `dataset/Belief/splits/`
+- `dataset/Belief/support_set/`
+- `benchmark/Belief/{direct,profile,retrieval}/` (placeholders for next stage)
+- `metadata/`
+
+---
+
+## 1) Source Tables (`dataset/Belief/source/`)
+
+### `data.csv`
+User-market final belief master table (one row per `userId*marketId`).
+
+Key columns:
+- `userId`, `marketId`
+- `options_n`
+- `dominant_option`, `dominant_net`, `dominant_share`
+- `candidate_options_json`
+- `candidate_net_json`
+- `candidate_bets_json`
+
+Use this table as the primary supervised target source for Belief tasks.
+
+### `option_accumulate.csv`
+Candidate-level accumulate table (one row per `userId*marketId*option`).
+
+Key columns:
+- `option_key` (`ANS:<answerId>` for multi-choice, `SIDE:YES/NO` for binary-like)
+- `accumulate_net_amount`
+- `bets_count`
+
+Use this when you need per-candidate decomposition rather than only the dominant option.
+
+---
+
+## 2) Query Splits (`dataset/Belief/splits/`)
+
+### `train.csv`, `validation.csv`, `test.csv`
+Rows are query `userId*marketId` samples split by **per-user market last-bet time** chronology.
+
+### `split_summary.txt`
+Split counts summary.
+
+### `wallet_ids_experiment_2000.csv`
+The sampled query user pool (2000 users, bucketed by `markets_per_user`).
+
+---
+
+## 3) Support Set (`dataset/Belief/support_set/`)
+
+### `support_users.csv`
+Support user list and user-level stats.
+
+### `support_belief_final.csv`
+Support users' final `user*market` belief summary (dominant/candidate aggregate view).
+
+### `support_belief_option_accumulate.csv`
+Support users' candidate-level accumulate records.
+
+### `support_user_bets_chrono.csv`
+Support users' **deduplicated bet events**, sorted by:
+1. `userId`
+2. `createdTime`
+3. `betId`
+
+Key columns include:
+- `userId`, `createdTime`, `betId`, `marketId`
+- `outcome`, `answerId`, `amount`, `shares`
+- `probBefore`, `probAfter`, `isApi`
+
+### `support_user_bets_index.csv`
+Per-user row-range index into `support_user_bets_chrono.csv` for fast retrieval.
+
+Columns:
+- `userId`
+- `start_row_in_events_csv_1based_excluding_header`
+- `end_row_in_events_csv_1based_excluding_header`
+- `num_bets`
+
+---
+
+## How to Use (Current Stage)
+
+### Belief supervised training
+- Use `dataset/Belief/splits/{train,validation,test}.csv` as query samples.
+- Use `dominant_option` (or candidate distribution fields) from source as labels.
+
+### Retrieval-style setup
+- Query side: split files (`train/val/test`).
+- Support side:
+  - User-level belief memory: `support_belief_final.csv`
+  - Event-level memory: `support_user_bets_chrono.csv` + `support_user_bets_index.csv`
+
+---
+
+## Notes
+
+- Current files are CSV for transparency and easier inspection.
+- Next stage will generate `benchmark/Belief/direct`, `profile`, and `retrieval` artifacts aligned with Polymarket format.

manifold/dataset/Belief/source/data.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/source/option_accumulate.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/splits/split_summary.txt

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+users=2000
+train_rows=121158
+valid_rows=25189
+test_rows=28020

manifold/dataset/Belief/splits/test.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/splits/train.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/splits/validation.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/splits/wallet_ids_experiment_2000.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/support_set/support_belief_final.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/support_set/support_user_bets_chrono.csv

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manifold/dataset/Belief/support_set/support_users.csv

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manifold/dataset/README_FILES.md

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+# Dataset File Guide (Manifold Benchmark)
+
+This document explains what each file in `dataset/` is for, including keys and common usage.
+
+## Common IDs
+
+- `userId`: Manifold user ID
+- `marketId`: Manifold market/contract ID
+- `betId`: Unique bet event ID
+- `answerId`: Candidate ID for multi-choice markets
+
+---
+
+## Belief
+
+### `Belief/source/data.csv`
+**Granularity:** one row per `userId * marketId`
+
+Contains final belief aggregation for each user-market pair.
+
+Important columns:
+- `dominant_option`: top accumulated option for this user-market
+- `dominant_net`: net accumulated amount on dominant option
+- `dominant_share`: |dominant_net| / total_abs_net
+- `candidate_options_json`, `candidate_net_json`, `candidate_bets_json`: full option-level breakdown
+
+Use this as the main target table for Belief prediction.
+
+### `Belief/source/option_accumulate.csv`
+**Granularity:** one row per `userId * marketId * option_key`
+
+Option-level accumulate details.
+
+Important columns:
+- `option_key`: `ANS:<answerId>` for multi-choice, `SIDE:YES/NO` for binary-like
+- `accumulate_net_amount`: signed net accumulate amount for that option
+- `bets_count`: number of events contributing to that option
+
+Use this when you need detailed candidate-level signals.
+
+---
+
+### `Belief/splits/train.csv`, `validation.csv`, `test.csv`
+**Granularity:** one row per `userId * marketId`
+
+Query split files for Belief tasks.
+Built by per-user chronological splitting (market-level timestamp ordering), then merged globally.
+
+### `Belief/splits/wallet_ids_experiment_2000.csv`
+The 2000 sampled query users used for experiment splits.
+
+### `Belief/splits/split_summary.txt`
+Summary counts for train/validation/test.
+
+---
+
+### `Belief/support_set/support_users.csv`
+Support user list and user-level stats.
+
+### `Belief/support_set/support_belief_final.csv`
+Support users' `user*market` final belief summary (dominant/candidate aggregate level).
+
+### `Belief/support_set/support_belief_option_accumulate.csv`
+Support users' candidate-level accumulate rows.
+
+### `Belief/support_set/support_user_bets_chrono.csv`
+Support users' deduplicated bet events sorted by:
+1) `userId`, 2) `createdTime`, 3) `betId`.
+
+Useful for retrieval/profile construction.
+
+### `Belief/support_set/support_user_bets_index.csv`
+Row-range index for `support_user_bets_chrono.csv`.
+
+Columns:
+- `start_row_in_events_csv_1based_excluding_header`
+- `end_row_in_events_csv_1based_excluding_header`
+- `num_bets`
+
+Use this to quickly retrieve a single user's full event history.
+
+---
+
+## Trade
+
+### `Trade/splits/train.csv`, `validation.csv`, `test.csv`
+**Granularity:** one row per bet event (`betId`)
+
+Query trade split files.
+For each query user, bets are sorted by `createdTime` and split by 85/10/5 chronologically, then merged.
+
+Important columns include:
+- `userId`, `createdTime`, `betId`, `marketId`
+- `outcome`, `answerId`
+- `amount`, `shares`
+- `probBefore`, `probAfter`
+- `isApi`
+
+### `Trade/splits/split_summary.txt`
+Summary counts for Trade splits.
+
+---
+
+### `Trade/support_set/support_trades.csv`
+Support users' deduplicated trade events in chronological order per user.
+
+### `Trade/support_set/support_trades_index.csv`
+Per-user row-range index into `support_trades.csv`.
+
+### `Trade/support_set/support_summary.txt`
+Support user/bet count summary.
+
+---
+
+## Recommended Join Paths
+
+- Belief query rows (`Belief/splits/*.csv`) ↔ source belief (`Belief/source/data.csv`) by `(userId, marketId)`.
+- Trade query rows (`Trade/splits/*.csv`) are already event-level; join to support by `userId` if needed.
+- For multi-choice text reconstruction, map `answerId` using market metadata/API snapshots.
+

manifold/dataset/Trade/splits/split_summary.txt

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+total_query_bets=453273
+train=384323
+validation=44431
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manifold/metadata/index.json

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+{
+  "name": "manifold-benchmark",
+  "status": "belief-data-prepared",
+  "tasks": ["Belief"],
+  "formats": ["csv"],
+  "notes": "DirectGen/ProfileGen/RetrievalGen to be generated later"
+}