sample_id stringlengths 40 68 | wallet stringlengths 42 42 | market_id stringlengths 66 66 ⌀ | split stringclasses 1
value | system_prompt stringclasses 1
value | input_text stringlengths 215 15.3k | label_choice stringclasses 913
values | label_confidence float64 0 1 ⌀ | event_slug stringlengths 7 120 ⌀ | question stringlengths 8 164 ⌀ | stance_first_block int64 30.2M 80M ⌀ | stance_last_block int64 30.6M 80M ⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99ba48768d7a8c34b85a5c59346501299b0322ce | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x39aff4f32d874ea1efba101bd602116f0489a30b129d4cb08e97fe2f0eb300da | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Et... | no | 1 | fluminense-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time? | 73,852,526 | 73,852,526 |
3b4172d62602deec95c79eb2205d36bced301ae6 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xdaba1eb317e97a74537aebf0177b2c8922ec05405aea3c498482385531502975 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June? | Event: how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-6-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-july-4 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4? | 73,852,530 | 73,852,530 |
b7e5838faa0b57bf3af16d1fca8c26f6a79d01ae | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xf3327cf1fb91270b73f2deaf4313ffc06649911edd3cfd6d38055e1e03cd243e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 6 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-6-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | june-2025-temperature-increase-c-549 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00-1.04ºC in June 2025? | 73,852,535 | 73,852,535 |
72a5c2d52e7cb8f32c38eba6b1c4c38491403703 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xe96bf0a82a91caa95e34723fe14c455a3968cbf1295a95110cda09e5ca4582af | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 9? | Event: ethereum-price-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on July 10? | 73,852,537 | 73,852,537 |
a4c5cb1395d1260607f4a77aa7e1a096fffa41a4 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xdcb58afffa7b97300d1319c9377a12fa670ecee08d4cb6c941c415165c7999fa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-which-constructor-scores-the-most-points | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Ch... | no | 1 | nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest-winner | Will Joey Chestnut win the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? | 73,852,541 | 73,852,541 |
b89502f741c3f82cbf7184018e335a288a54c392 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xe2189c0d2f68d6be611f1f541ba7cd042a78e83ab24a92b9c9d6c6d293a0838f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-june-27-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | Event: gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method-of-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Oscar Piastri fin... | no | 1 | psg-vs-real-madrid-regulation-time | Will PSG beat Real Madrid in regulation time? | 73,852,543 | 73,852,543 |
9cb7ec568760311b7f779c6858312ad333ff6979 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xa3d646330c69637855b99af191c40ba980928eaa1cd97c1f6aa52de6de21bf76 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Mexico beat USA in Regulation Time? | Event: gold-cup-final-usa-vs-mexico-method-of-win | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Oscar Piastri finish in 2nd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | yes | 1 | yoon-in-jail-before-august | Yoon in jail before August? | 73,852,544 | 73,852,544 |
c7cad7bc2bc7ea56bc58ce409f6e40ac51da1396 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xc8f33e004d14cff0d9531f0498570850f7d33986101825f637b9676461171f82 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Oscar Piastri finish in 2nd place at the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? | Event: f1-british-grand-prix-2nd-place | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will ... | no | 1 | palmeiras-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time? | 73,852,548 | 73,852,548 |
8b99ee4d1307278ab081763dc44db012c2c1d439 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xc2abe3b86f1d23d65f3d710d6c413a0f0021013fc77a3450876b6d7a307de90a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will India win the match? | Event: world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Quest... | no | 1 | 50-tariff-goes-into-effect-on-eu-by-july-9 | 50% tariff goes into effect on EU by July 9? | 73,852,557 | 73,852,557 |
12987716947dba87ff3e28acb58091e1b0e3ce67 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xfd9c8791f8c34b11158bf32135d1fff74f1f6bb695a6df56f3442fa2d67b560e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59? | Event: jurassic-world-rebirth-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-9-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 9 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,559 | 73,852,559 |
5af905bdc5aa2990c5ba085e6dc7d1042b8cfcdc | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xf2e139559264ad12aaa17268580d751a2deb240cdd3e4b7f46ea4394c41758c2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 4? | Event: bitcoin-price-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. ... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-9 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 9? | 73,852,560 | 73,852,560 |
efa98334604f928073e4b434313aa6459eed43c5 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x4cd11adce16ff8d010f75ab0c2ecf842132633439511381fd3b04b59be18c456 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes? | Event: how-many-votes-will-reconciliation-bill-get-in-the-house | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on July 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Choice: no ... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $109K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,571 | 73,852,571 |
a5146cda9b699a58bd0b58fd756d45a6e557900c | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x0dc9597de38aec5eee7bf7a395348bf9adb88a31cf307c9aeaaab25f0f055bf2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on July 2? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-2 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Event: trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-336 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question:... | no | 1 | f1-british-grand-prix-pole-winner | Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole? | 73,852,580 | 73,852,580 |
37f33bc751e3da16d7a083132dd126ff475dce6c | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x65b237862d2f57496c52359b9612d60228719bc12a1439528ce3cd1f850d36c1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Event: trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-336 | Choice: down | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 8 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-8-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will E... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-9-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on July 9 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,591 | 73,852,591 |
bc97226939909f020d67d2f38c3ccd2c9172da2f | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x8139c013083b4c0ef736a613ade88ae0bc0ddb89b284e50ab39d082e09476ff7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on July 8 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-8-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highe... | no | 1 | highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-10 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on July 10? | 73,852,594 | 73,852,594 |
dae8214ad6cd99812f637eae4f9d95d5a9f70f7d | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x3a49d807153c04f04559ca17dc25e8cca25504d88a57a5fda538284e882c02fb | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? | Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-july-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will th... | no | 1 | trump-approval-rating-on-july-4 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 4? | 73,852,596 | 73,852,596 |
d8067f900a88e793a2226701268db273338318cb | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xf2399d8dea9ef263203e839ec633315b426e9719128ecedda170efbf0bac52a7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on July 9? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-9 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-8 | Choice: ... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-on-july-9 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2300 and $2400 on July 9? | 73,852,600 | 73,852,600 |
3614797841ac99d27b6b8fa5b6a5678fa1648bc1 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x9d2e1817100e309098a47dbdd95a953e35cd803aa7a7e202650e9101296be042 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on July 8? | Event: highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-july-8 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-184 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question... | no | 1 | bitcoin-price-july-4-5pm-et | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on July 4 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,602 | 73,852,602 |
c5a93c966607d8dfc697b96048150a27ebd64d2e | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x50d1db07a6664ee09eeabebf78a7a1d90ccfd6e512b9840048d46c5782748950 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? | Event: 10-year-treasury-yield-4pt5-friday-184 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the price of Ether... | no | 1 | jurassic-world-rebirth-5-day-opening-weekend-box-office | Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $117-128m? | 73,852,610 | 73,852,610 |
5c088d14d1ef801f5b97074a0f32a5aa682158c1 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x46f29f673be113a10374d820d139c98a0d74ad2203b278c38a7930d7e4b92b63 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89? | Event: superman-rotten-tomatoes-score | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questi... | no | 1 | how-many-jobs-added-in-june-441 | Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June? | 73,852,612 | 73,852,612 |
3eec9eb98aa4d9093b813ab67023bed986448617 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x7fd4a14eabf2a2cd7c6cf6787cff35897bb010996533b9fae955fe453f47429a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0... | no | 1 | world-test-championship-2nd-test-england-vs-india | Will England win the match? | 73,852,614 | 73,852,614 |
c757570bc1a7a591939f571a76ce9fae7b41ffe2 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x5bf04cc8b4d9d3f0f5bc58db09ff4021d9b9e8fb7f27aa131c49eaa3a0416ed8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 5 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-5-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 4? | Event: solana-price-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will I... | no | 1 | ethereum-price-july-8-5pm-et | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 8 at 5PM ET? | 73,852,616 | 73,852,616 |
c9de26ba11cae193f80d2cf6f46bc44a0b82ae76 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x80f3bb507bc7da89c5da27933a089b2a580b701e01577e476d297f9745b60fa1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on July 4? | Event: solana-price-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the highest te... | no | 0.072161 | 1350-measles-cases-in-us-before-august | 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? | 73,852,682 | 73,852,682 |
8f7e9d7ff3e29ab33c9e70fabed52a94220bd693 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x427bc4b40c09b3dcbc973747f0e4b079bed91b3e5a0aed5c36edd0f7591485f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Miami beat New England Revolution? | Event: mls-soccer-new-england-vs-inter-miami | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Ques... | yes | 0.000035 | brazil-unemployment-below-6pt3-for-q4-2025 | Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? | 73,852,703 | 73,852,703 |
f104ac989acb9214e7142de30f10d590d9d6fb87 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x52bcacee91873a53b46d49231b04329b013d6ff38a82b9ac788d96bc907a8f1e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on July 4? | Event: highest-temperature-in-london-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday? | Event: will-grok-resume-replying-by-wednesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Questio... | no | 0.000037 | brazils-12-month-inflation-below-5pt50-for-december-2025 | Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | 73,852,713 | 73,852,713 |
bf1fa950bc1c799b643086e395f9863c006c5f87 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x8d43572c9f733da197c7b211b1d74ea976390ace7020f451e8b1ab462cf7fde2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will @Grok resume replying by Wednesday? | Event: will-grok-resume-replying-by-wednesday | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | Event: real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will t... | no | 0.006578 | harvard-international-students-ban-ended-before-august | Harvard international students ban ended before August? | 73,852,721 | 74,704,885 |
0b10fb180325e248024d7df2c503095e322a6769 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x7eb32e53e1e624187306af79cd2db0139dba53434e723894477d6ec9630114b4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund in regulation time? | Event: real-madrid-vs-dortmund-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 8 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-8-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: ... | no | 0.360426 | houthi-strike-on-israel-before-august | Houthi strike on Israel before August? | 73,852,733 | 73,852,733 |
829528fdf583542ee4683caf6a08fc8d952784ce | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x920859bb2ed3d1c063b6107ba7d29156d8efd0b205240cf941d59687b01b785a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Ethereum be between $2500 and $2600 on July 8 at 5PM ET? | Event: ethereum-price-july-8-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence... | yes | 0.997082 | israel-strikes-iran-before-september-141 | Israel strikes Iran before September? | 73,852,747 | 73,852,747 |
c0ea14e293566d5bd80bd0c5d0a5250f9bdba372 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x62362d5847b95fa110698a6c6313e9b6a2565567ac53ba849e2266ff384eda45 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $108K on July 7 at 5PM ET? | Event: bitcoin-price-july-7-5pm-et | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament? | Event: chess-superunited-rapid-blitz-croatia-winner | Cho... | no | 0.026436 | wlfi-13b-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch | WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | 73,852,874 | 73,852,874 |
89172a2c7ce3bd5d1bc9aa481e2fcec3450ba8e1 | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0xa7f20c1155e62e78cc2854d92b08e2dcb6985bc99f404f9c3dda07d5aaeee0e2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament? | Event: chess-superunited-rapid-blitz-croatia-winner | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confi... | no | 0 | bitcoin-above-on-july-31 | Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? | 73,852,948 | 73,852,948 |
622615f3d800c278a4fef20f13666053272c13fe | 0x08ec6665312a36be95b7f507767c25f4a2e2b5fc | 0x473acca842031964646ce41ad87d632a3761396b6cf91bf2f96bb57115fa3724 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Chelsea beat Fluminense in regulation time? | Event: fluminense-vs-chelsea-regulation-time | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4? | Event: trump-approval-rating-on-july-4 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will global te... | no | 1 | grok-4-scores-above-40-on-humanitys-last-exam | Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | 73,852,960 | 73,852,960 |
815b9e10de8000da1a761deda9a43dd077117e57 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x54e552db5bcb9a3330e4c2d6c18569e76b5f4402c661c22be264d60416d8ca99 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will the Netherlands win?
Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | no | 1 | uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Will the Netherlands win? | 61,702,241 | 61,702,241 |
ef0eae770a2f2850b0d72046d23375b173af5135 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xc51495a709e23a553486a2e1bf469967b166d69b5ee12b5878d8d987e7b291f0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest?
Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output stric... | yes | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | 61,859,656 | 61,859,656 |
c93039804a65dd1fb203edb386c214b3205f767e | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xed15b5fb7a069e8748bdbbcbcffd00a7cbacb95fd65bcb79c2c745aa883dea6c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real M... | no | 1 | ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | 61,974,406 | 61,974,406 |
9e01d8b98487d9fc99c407811f73dacf120d7d40 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x5bc1ce620e2aa0976a9f78fe9badbb4a9c834fefcc2a29f0d2f7cc58e41da48e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-psg-vs-girona | Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | 62,013,295 | 62,013,295 |
410c43da6d4eb7d24b4de8508fe3d078334c6402 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x29acbd30e1a2478c02e75f23796e55f8ce182f358a57ca7f4ca3d3310ea0aeb5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava | Will Celtic beat Slovan Bratislava? | 62,013,297 | 62,013,297 |
2df2cf4e7562e8b89826e077f8e8d33ca4e614cf | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x623a825e67c716d7b0901020911e54b75759294633709ea28dc90e10018fc67c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Will Feyenoord beat Bayer Leverkusen? | 62,054,563 | 62,054,563 |
8b3305a74063dab0bf85212caf5116348baf87a9 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x94e0d145ebb2c1f3dda9f9bc14201cad7477bc2f988e76c1208593a5d82b883e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | 62,054,563 | 62,054,563 |
597f9f3a16b67f11bac6dcb190b24e90a1b2c3a9 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x47217950cc02ab42fc2d3973fd3e85a22972d37c359ccdcb8f5ebe43d3f083e6 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | 62,110,632 | 62,110,632 |
9e9e8d6235fe1a79eea0f532ed086d883b6a1f82 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xe7e0a7f320db0775d83952cb0fce1373966a0e36e25b875bb8f74980c6cf1552 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa? | 62,110,635 | 62,110,635 |
3f88332d357653eebb66a8b6954662ed13d4ce31 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x3caf2ecde178b4e450c46e4ea2c8414722527c863baae1cf81aea64f7ce37211 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Will Nottingham Forest beat Brighton? | 62,184,746 | 62,184,746 |
51da615955b89eb67bd9e474a3ebae5b92e86d15 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x102c9b363de0a09c473af1c6146052b90ad4e46eb5875d9c983f989b53a961e8 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-manchester-city-vs-arsenal | Will Manchester City beat Arsenal? | 62,184,749 | 62,184,749 |
9f2debcf8bfde9b6a60f19c4e7e586988403d862 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x8165d964075039c61ecad6244532b9e0b5096c5eee1f559fe29c182322185b41 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | europa-league-az-alkmaar-vs-if-elfsborg | Will IF Elfsborg beat AZ Alkmaar? | 62,277,748 | 62,277,748 |
0316042d42cd264bbc5d4f0e03415537cfdc9b73 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xb355f149ae40ac4ace5f32d4742ad79b426eaa07ab301df71d9a402df0ee1c0d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Will Frankfurt beat Viktoria Plzen? | 62,345,272 | 62,345,272 |
4f052c218f5ff8440ab88e3187bc1b5b310cd5f9 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x6abba784a9e355262e117b09d5d2127f93bacfb0c45db3e7b142f67926044243 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Will Wolves beat Liverpool? | 62,520,728 | 62,520,728 |
7dab4365622c652421b29e7e2194bb8c3a6455a9 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x590d0bf35aa2fd267a3c2f83e0ea896bb0aa906e1a83ff812a2fab4f68541e17 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | largest-company-on-september-30 | Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | 62,520,730 | 62,520,730 |
14df35f1ce906b1e790d916a3eb06dd2168b8e89 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x82df938a34ae69d5394b1bd5df4e01c59ab2958ff386ed1597393c55054721fc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | 62,723,804 | 62,723,804 |
d671c1dfc9d85d4207fbf9d264b277ed643f5ee5 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xb5a2b3f39ffab4daea8a0cbfd07374dc61016aba17b5c9d3cc38b709f0302182 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11? | 63,114,243 | 63,114,243 |
f04a6712c1d324d1d38c87e95818d3de6a040edf | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xeedf49438f58b8dbaad3c89ec97a6cd7be30c38b6757c52f812e3909512b949e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | 64,935,301 | 64,935,301 |
356809c5b9463643c2e31ff3ab5825cce202d16a | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xebdbc8c7e5ff63f77b75d0ae087902b91a238b5751770cfc4f81da5ea58fa092 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | 66,726,253 | 66,726,253 |
c121c5bbc082a95def1700bd26a44b549205747d | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x113be67acdb4ba58af1d5f93a892d3d5772e796ee647f4bc8bf451b7fe82d666 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-sporting-cp-vs-bologna | Will Sporting CP beat Bologna? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
b71de62d3782c21f77fad0306e3438d1cfadbcaa | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x3aa0cf3d8dc4c6c78d0c64fe2aa96c87fa3d6625b79926179b6728615ae37f80 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Will the match between PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool end in a draw? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
040ab24996e43863d646a988858f0f124ab33967 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x6833fc8a87fb47bea27387c0e94a8c7007c4b0c514fcc6cff605eae61b8ae768 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
bd6270881e43a4d50b28f35a46bed48e5cfa7cc0 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x9ee66f99ade6a2ca53f9df51baca870f05321b95cebd21d9d81fd07b73eea9aa | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
e25083f522e0396ca9cb928b3d61f2d77cff09b8 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xa0d1d715104e47963f0cdb51ce54d04f8cd31ac293176893b5f50bd55f46b9d0 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Will Arsenal beat Girona? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
6067d30b920c4738864248aaa7b9eefbbe268023 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xae08b0027bb1fb50c112e72da476cf4356989fe281e97930a8ee62236268ffe4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | 67,314,302 | 67,314,302 |
411b079eade16040d3e01e8e17ca1d39174f8d07 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x1fe0cfce3cd4626d555645e98dd4f25d5631ea4f22b64ef281f6ea8250ae4b6a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-athletic-bilbao-vs-viktoria-plzen | Will Athletic Bilbao beat Viktoria Plzen? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
a320ba0660e301834f72036e891491c5a0e05472 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x3d536c06bf2cbce63c2ac8c9af78f80ff3b92ab4d4cae08d5157cc98ec5c6e31 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | no | 1 | uel-tottenham-vs-if-elfsborg | Will Tottenham beat IF Elfsborg? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
e5847e36bfc53f2623135c0b40e6e32e37dff752 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x586da693b47b4ba0c759d195f94b68b3ee3cbd8d358bba18c67a7efc14cc3a5e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-slavia-praha-vs-malmo-ff | Will Malmo FF beat Slavia Praha? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
37ef7b057a17456694abb767947c2223cb31053b | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x83d068fa9d71b20f782decc80efbca83c2f673f1b94aa55b7a61f1899d411ecc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-fcsb-vs-manchester-united | Will FCSB beat Manchester United? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
45f88c5261905bde05c7174000d2bd3824532a5e | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x86d0aad505e265dea2a84857d5f404b33b3f1d2add8e52e4cda744928929eb86 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-tottenham-vs-if-elfsborg | Will IF Elfsborg beat Tottenham? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
4793e42330c818c1dac70d16a6e75769c076de4f | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xb10e68f8ccead0b6af8f84410845efe8b18443ed718a42827435a5b4621c5b8f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the Netherlands win? | Event: uefa-nations-league-netherlands-vs-germany | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Even... | yes | 1 | uel-as-roma-vs-frankfurt | Will AS Roma beat Frankfurt? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
f57962540b6acf01e6b4b39a9c45d491ea059017 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xbc90ffc8a3f9cc9616026d94706dab912ad6504f37a1e9b8f49ba1197f73d495 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Ev... | no | 1 | uel-nice-vs-bodo-glimt | Will Nice beat Bodo Glimt? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
a921fd21171918601b6c4d2f5810ea08d4af3027 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xc12e5d5d6191fe0736638b45e4be9f7928437a0ac9a4ea6b2966635281a72112 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will VfB Stuttgart beat Real Madrid? | Event: ucl-real-madrid-vs-vfb-stuttgart | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Celtic beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-sl... | yes | 1 | uel-maccabi-tlv-vs-porto | Will Porto beat Maccabi TLV? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
0bdeec67ac9ab8a2757066d2f9a362f64b9ac28d | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xed04af3b15798ae17157811e2db49721d37e5d78f28858e03a4eae30a542cb87 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Girona beat Paris Saint-Germain? | Event: ucl-psg-vs-girona | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Celtic beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-feyenoord-v... | yes | 1 | uel-braga-vs-lazio | Will Lazio beat Braga? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
a3471786a73f43f994777468be94ada969f69395 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xef5eab03fae6f011ecfd8127d82211a8a2bc6fb1c81a03a2b6c2981622aa6eb4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Celtic beat Slovan Bratislava? | Event: ucl-celtic-vs-slovan-bratislava | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-monac... | yes | 1 | uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Will PAOK beat Real Sociedad? | 67,364,214 | 67,364,214 |
e2c9fd0d31c5dfabf809d5dd3996c34334be030f | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x0933fbe9c1afba3bd92c08cbe4b2164bdde16e9e276bfe2dfea84e0aab797f49 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Feyenoord beat Bayer Leverkusen? | Event: ucl-feyenoord-vs-bayer-leverkusen | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-bour... | no | 1 | uel-anderlecht-vs-hoffenheim | Will Hoffenheim beat Anderlecht? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
0d3fd36c49613f5beeb2f9847493a4e0891aafff | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x59b432224e9442e83991166317e13155a7a806c326720a71e4a75caeade0c902 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Monaco beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-monaco-vs-barcelona | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverh... | no | 1 | uel-real-sociedad-vs-paok | Will Real Sociedad beat PAOK? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
06dd7471336615c126c7368661baeca22d3fb4fd | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x638108346587ef43fbb21a29f4d116b2771055f1c7d3a5fa7401acf90841266d | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Liverpool beat Bournemouth? | Event: epl-liverpool-vs-bournemouth | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Brighton? | Event: epl-bri... | yes | 1 | uel-rangers-vs-union-st-gilloise | Will the match between Rangers and Union St.-Gilloise end in a draw? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
c1074c5e4c281bd5908d42dd0b2bc090debc613a | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x67df559ab1ced15d521afa1fd2a4aff83db0a5c13e016b49d49db20f2e653a1c | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolverhampton beat Aston Villa? | Event: epl-aston-villa-vs-wolverhampton | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Manchester City beat Arsenal? | Event: e... | no | 1 | uel-twente-vs-besiktas | Will Twente beat Besiktas? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
97852cbcf2ac8ecb54a07c50ab0b5521f9dbae9f | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x6fa3ce64cb909b26b3f01f971d47fc954d76ed205f2665408ea040c7907b44bc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest beat Brighton? | Event: epl-brighton-vs-nottingham-forest | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Manchester City beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will IF Elfsborg beat AZ Alkmaar? | Event: europ... | yes | 1 | uel-fc-midtjylland-vs-fenerbahce | Will Fenerbahce beat FC Midtjylland? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
62d0fede3746166086f9fac87dea83f994a57e4e | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x7fa83b9872bd54ce349d7d1147098d3b86dc643bbd7969922fc54a1bfb7ce204 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Manchester City beat Arsenal? | Event: epl-manchester-city-vs-arsenal | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will IF Elfsborg beat AZ Alkmaar? | Event: europa-league-az-alkmaar-vs-if-elfsborg | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Frankfurt beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: e... | yes | 1 | uel-twente-vs-besiktas | Will Besiktas beat Twente? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
cd6270b125622684e29516e32b3f4645a6482722 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x8b910e2f9433b26283f06694039a1b8b90ecaf8ff75a60ad66c899257861dca2 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will IF Elfsborg beat AZ Alkmaar? | Event: europa-league-az-alkmaar-vs-if-elfsborg | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Frankfurt beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Wolves beat Liverpool? | Event: epl... | yes | 1 | uel-nice-vs-bodo-glimt | Will Bodo Glimt beat Nice? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
09d32f9c7864a911bb12eea02e093d79eb4e1302 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xf80372c49f1f9afe28df3dd4d4e24279d5994e3e58d3dbbc83f549de87f02095 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Frankfurt beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: europa-league-frankfurt-vs-viktoria | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Wolves beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Ev... | yes | 1 | uel-ferencvaros-vs-az-alkmaar | Will AZ Alkmaar beat Ferencvaros? | 67,364,215 | 67,364,215 |
4d4c46ef23adc8cbe267ff44903f1d0b44a55bbd | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xe2c97e0100991397679a54631ed214d798d76627d88c5abea989ad06274b92f4 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Wolves beat Liverpool? | Event: epl-wolves-vs-liverpool | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: u... | yes | 1 | epl-not-bri-2025-02-01 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-01? | 67,417,238 | 67,417,238 |
2be3c6ceecef18f71d6f977d117e42c7c98566d8 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x504353b8835ffd992cc63995b4610a7ebd9d2e4e5cc82efbab120d8f363bccd9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will AAPL be the largest company by mcap on September 30? | Event: largest-company-on-september-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times Oc... | yes | 1 | jimmy-butler-trade | Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Houston Rockets? | 67,779,420 | 67,779,420 |
d08836129f64d838f509f80551aef3e0ddc069f6 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x8846491e4b7442c87a64ee3aef2d6ef2b1725eb1ab68003f5265520b5deab1b7 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Real Madrid beat LOSC Lille? | Event: ucl-losc-lille-vs-real-madrid | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-we... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-feb-14-21 | Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21? | 68,213,970 | 68,213,970 |
1eb310f2ab12c648b2fb5f3b51db1bc00c79f7c9 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x68cdc6ecb472e3e30dce16699e4f9dacfc584f5f5e0102de8aa034594b134b66 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 4-11? | Event: donald-trump-of-tweets-oct-4-11 | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-n... | yes | 1 | epl-lei-bre-2025-02-21 | Will Brentford win on 2025-02-21? | 68,246,045 | 68,246,045 |
cff0829d759cb6278aaf25fc873d2073d5d67a3c | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x34595ad04e90b47128a056647afb60ebfb5e197f54d7703dfd4d25c2b6adf117 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-30? | Event: epl-wes-ars-2024-11-30 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-bologn... | yes | 1 | epl-ful-cry-2025-02-22 | Will Fulham win on 2025-02-22? | 68,281,686 | 68,281,686 |
55c25e069cde1c87a4b94d78bfc10f8d155f652b | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x7104fb4506f7d38cf47114b6639a773fee7f360e50d43e36edc9da566197a449 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? | Event: epl-not-liv-2025-01-14 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-bologna | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will the match between PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool end in a dra... | yes | 1 | epl-ast-che-2025-02-22 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-22? | 68,281,686 | 68,281,686 |
d990520eda8e0828c878d17c687cf7e192b4d001 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xf26ebb80ef5ddef0024fe698d48a76645d9f9c30ba1d3067be9b193b133d837e | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Sporting CP beat Bologna? | Event: ucl-sporting-cp-vs-bologna | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will the match between PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: uc... | yes | 1 | epl-new-not-2025-02-23 | Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-23? | 68,288,862 | 68,288,862 |
728198635678feded3b1c51daaedf18f6dbf93ab | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x091c9ba6be983927ca49945c8c56b4b11f58eef7608a36e883d540787f2faee9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will the match between PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool end in a draw? | Event: ucl-psv-vs-liverpool | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart... | no | 1 | epl-mac-liv-2025-02-23 | Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-23? | 68,315,810 | 68,315,810 |
69f53c11b2c21c689e24be3b7d4f5fc62aad0c7a | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x30deb216308114bdc52f2b88a32884b80745254a326e04f8efb43318d3e8135a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Inter Milan beat Monaco? | Event: ucl-inter-milan-vs-as-monaco | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs... | yes | 1 | epl-wol-ful-2025-02-25 | Will Fulham win on 2025-02-25? | 68,410,464 | 68,410,464 |
fe0549b14c37aa60b1116c21ecf6b47913b8feca | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0x48084e128acf7b95cf1575c4998168fa0138beaaab5e88ce843779f6dd95e5b3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Stuttgart? | Event: ucl-stuttgart-vs-paris-saint-germain | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-atal... | yes | 1 | epl-bri-bou-2025-02-25 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25? | 68,410,464 | 68,410,464 |
1bc80bf828fa13ab5e1f4e27158cdbc365608217 | 0x08fa7bdc3d513e67feff87dd3c31d7f584cfa865 | 0xf3cb0fa257a218a8f84daebd67891b19213222be78e8be2ab47289a40a0991e9 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Arsenal beat Girona? | Event: ucl-girona-vs-arsenal | Choice: no | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will Atalanta beat Barcelona? | Event: ucl-barcelona-vs-atalanta | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
3. Question: Will Athletic Bilbao beat Viktoria Plzen? | Event: uel-athletic-bilbao-vs-viktoria... | yes | 1 | epl-cry-ast-2025-02-25 | Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25? | 68,410,464 | 68,410,464 |
f30f3177ea3b6eacd4dc4bcdc983ce80c31d6ed2 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x848b24eb35c6c6cddfa569091a1b6f2144d4a198af5e044c5777404fde21a7d3 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
None
Target market:
Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election?
Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024
Predict the user's choice and confidence for the target market. Output strict JSON: {"choice": ..., "confidence": ..., "rationale": ...} | yes | 1 | curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | 63,600,703 | 63,600,703 |
6bda4679d93b0d0339c1d8dcdbb37797bb664f28 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x3fe38824b2df0b948a56588c67605e3561bbc321495a3d07036cda227add1170 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
Target market:
Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election?
Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-colum... | yes | 1 | which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-election | Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | 63,678,562 | 63,678,562 |
21a15970e5ad4ba09e3d8ee6fb62d1551f62bf0a | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xccdc9302e3e95b1c48e9eb388024b29685df559f1cee589c5ae0bb3d901d0a91 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | venom-the-last-dance-opening-weekend-box-office | Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend? | 63,678,562 | 63,678,562 |
34f6b388340776df8f07bfeed76169bc682ced1e | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x17468689fccf364a665f7ddca279f045e24ba3ea6e691251a224da3e886dd705 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | elon-musk-of-tweets-oct-25-nov-1 | Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 25 - November 1? | 63,759,731 | 63,759,731 |
8ae07084e10eaa4eb4a6caf29fa4c92983d6d830 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x210273ebe50c73651ae0a077324c0de0e27a606b4ef24325dab600b344172939 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | moldova-presidential-election-winner | Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election? | 63,921,537 | 63,921,537 |
eecf658b2d3116d01034eabc254b96fd8eeeb8bd | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x325038359610a566c0963c9f0ea2ea33b2ddedf7808898c4ed4166787213f1b5 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | trump-sentenced-to-how-much-prison-time | Trump sentenced to no prison time? | 63,921,537 | 63,921,537 |
3ea4e02858771faa6031d528a7201ef2a8a2cbe9 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x78234aafc88ab34b177109a5448cd90d7d1fd4efea1983d19fd67eee78ff0239 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | number-of-debates-between-trump-and-harris | 1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? | 63,921,537 | 63,921,537 |
05c8f84961be37c93429c7f78233a95a1f896dd1 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x0a573d0d2e1f013707b2b6b5429b35db371fdb31f67909ed719abb381b1de6e1 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | new-york-presidential-election-winner-2024 | Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? | 63,957,154 | 63,957,154 |
2354c723fc643f98fdb47fa0d53433794d8ae33f | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x883f6ac0468d3449161454db37acb951bad5b55a7752bc2dd007e40356cee353 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | texas-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | 63,957,154 | 63,957,154 |
9faa5da410d831e819f613fd5f4916f284ddaed8 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xb31067bef802154e2a6fbe1fff825bf2769860dfa829c4bf71463bc357df3023 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | west-virginia-presidential-election-winner | Will a Republican win West Virginia Presidential Election? | 63,957,154 | 63,957,154 |
ac99cd23432660415a20d37808991c1ac6bf1c7e | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x24ace0c29dc2c801992ea6b7c795d3e7c4f2ad40343bc9f0becef694b2ef197f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | california-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win California Presidential Election? | 63,991,569 | 63,991,569 |
48012c9927fbc09a67c2930b510e39bf8198a31f | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x846be8b2fc96f1033d715aeedcbcb7459945abef9b87599a9e02c27ee1c66b7f | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | colorado-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election? | 63,991,569 | 63,991,569 |
a87efc23af5369488991801ccd41e646c799681e | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0xfa5a7ff654fb16fbbba2891bb08888d7b876581fed0e09c108919a8ec9732f18 | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | new-jersey-presidential-election-winner | Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election? | 63,991,569 | 63,991,569 |
d870659825a161f0273b79f10e4f4307f6a77a99 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x24849f6151db4691a332ea8beaa12af9c290340062f664797e6034d0cf4ea61a | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | yes | 1 | uruguay-presidential-election-winner | Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? | 65,994,692 | 65,994,692 |
f38b750c6e506e32c3d61eed5806be3de8f1b083 | 0x09029fa4c1a687c316a1391a550958d7ec9d7752 | 0x5d4e8d237be6d11bb1c5630e41309a25620ed5c649772d9a26ae895beaa724dc | train | You are modeling a user's behavior in prediction markets. Given the user's prior behavior and a target market, predict the user's likely choice and confidence. Return strict JSON with keys: choice, confidence, rationale. | User history:
1. Question: Will Eduardo Pimentel win the 2024 Curitiba mayoral election? | Event: curitiba-mayoral-election-2024 | Choice: yes | Confidence: 1.0
2. Question: Will BC NDP win the most seats in the 2024 British Columbia general election? | Event: which-party-wins-the-most-seats-in-british-columbia-electio... | no | 1 | popular-vote-margin-of-victory-in-presidential-election | GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? | 65,994,692 | 65,994,692 |
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