code/experiments/run_all.py

"""Phase-4 unified-API experiment orchestrator.

Thin runner that ties together:

    data (``ml.load``) -> method (``ml.methods.<Class>``)
                       -> eval (``ml.score``)
                       -> :class:`macrolens.RunRecord`
                       -> JSON via ``pydantic.TypeAdapter``.

Every choice mirrors the unified-API plan §6 (RunRecord), §7 (Determinism
flag), and Phase-4 Pipeline B pseudocode.

Hard rules:

* Zero benchmark-data IO outside ``ml.load`` (this file is a leaf consumer).
* Methods/eval are accessed strictly via :mod:`macrolens` (no reaching into
  private internals).
* The runner does NOT override hyperparameters except for two cases:
  (i) T1 + ``Persistence`` — the runner reads the actual ``close`` index
  out of ``meta_test.attrs["feature_names"]`` and overrides
  ``PersistenceConfig.close_feature_idx``;
  (ii) opt-in ``--config-override`` flag (e.g. ``lightgbm.n_estimators=20``)
  for fast smoke tests.
* LLM/LLM-TS/LLM-FT method families require an externally-managed vLLM
  HTTP endpoint (one ``vllm serve`` per HF model id). The runner reads the
  endpoint URL from a per-method environment variable
  (``MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_<NAME>`` — see :func:`_resolve_llm_engine`),
  constructs one :class:`methods._openai_engine.OpenAIChatEngine` per
  ``(method_id, model_id)`` pair, and injects it via the ``engine=``
  ctor kwarg. If no endpoint is configured for an LLM-family method, the
  runner emits ``status="skip"`` with a clear ``error`` message — there
  is NO silent fallback to a dry-run engine.

Usage::

    python -m projects.agent_builder.scripts.whatif_bench.experiments \\
        --task T1 T2 \\
        --method persistence log_size_ols lightgbm \\
        --granularity daily --seeds 42 --no-checkpoint
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import datetime as dt
import json
import logging
import os
import platform
import subprocess
import sys
import time
import traceback
import tracemalloc
from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor, as_completed
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any, Iterable

import pydantic

from .. import config
from .. import macrolens as ml
from ..macrolens import RunRecord
from . import panel as panel_module

logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)


# ── Constants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────


# Method families that talk to an externally-managed vLLM HTTP endpoint.
# The runner resolves one ``OpenAIChatEngine`` per family member from
# ``MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_<NAME>`` and injects it via ``engine=``.
_LLM_FAMILIES: frozenset[str] = frozenset({"llm", "llm_ts", "llm_ft"})

# Hard cap on how much traceback text is recorded on a failed RunRecord
# so the result JSON stays bounded even when stack traces are huge.
_TRACEBACK_TRUNCATE_BYTES: int = 4 * 1024


# ── LLM engine resolution (env-var → OpenAIChatEngine) ────────────────────


def _llm_endpoint_env_var(method_id: str) -> str:
    """Canonical env-var name for a given LLM-family method id.

    Mapping rule: uppercase the method id and prefix with
    ``MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_``. Examples::

        llama_scout    -> MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_LLAMA_SCOUT
        gemma4         -> MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_GEMMA4
        chattime       -> MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_CHATTIME
        time_mqa       -> MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_TIME_MQA
        llm_finetuned  -> MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_LLM_FINETUNED
    """
    return f"MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_{method_id.upper()}"


# Process-global cache: one OpenAIChatEngine per (env-var, model_id) pair
# so all (task, seed) cells reuse the same HTTP client.
_LLM_ENGINE_CACHE: dict[tuple[str, str], Any] = {}


def _resolve_llm_engine(
    method_id: str, cls: type,
) -> tuple[Any | None, str | None]:
    """Return ``(engine, error)`` for one LLM-family method.

    Reads the endpoint URL from ``MACROLENS_LLM_BASE_URL_<METHOD_ID>``.
    If unset, returns ``(None, "<reason>")`` so the runner can emit a
    ``status="skip"`` record. If set, constructs (or returns the cached)
    :class:`methods._openai_engine.OpenAIChatEngine` and returns it.

    Exception: methods whose authors' inference code is fundamentally
    incompatible with the OpenAI chat API (ChatTime's 10K-bin numeric
    tokenisation; Time-MQA's LoRA prompt protocol) are loaded in-process
    from the vendored authors' code via a dedicated engine wrapper. They
    do not require an env-var endpoint.
    """
    # In-process engines for methods that can't be served via vllm-serve.
    if method_id == "chattime":
        try:
            cfg = cls.default_config()
            model_id = getattr(cfg, "model_id", "") or "ChengsenWang/ChatTime-1-7B-Chat"
        except Exception:
            model_id = "ChengsenWang/ChatTime-1-7B-Chat"
        cache_key = ("inprocess:chattime", model_id)
        cached = _LLM_ENGINE_CACHE.get(cache_key)
        if cached is not None:
            return cached, None
        try:
            from ..methods._chattime_engine import ChatTimeEngine
            engine = ChatTimeEngine(model_path=model_id)
        except Exception as exc:
            return None, f"ChatTimeEngine construction failed: {exc!r}"
        _LLM_ENGINE_CACHE[cache_key] = engine
        return engine, None

    env_var = _llm_endpoint_env_var(method_id)
    base_url = os.environ.get(env_var, "").strip()
    if not base_url:
        return (
            None,
            f"No endpoint configured for {method_id}; "
            f"set {env_var}=http://<host>:<port>/v1",
        )

    # Pull the model_id from the method's default config so the engine
    # can target the matching ``model`` field on the vLLM endpoint.
    try:
        cfg = cls.default_config()
        model_id = getattr(cfg, "model_id", "") or method_id
    except Exception:
        model_id = method_id

    cache_key = (base_url, model_id)
    cached = _LLM_ENGINE_CACHE.get(cache_key)
    if cached is not None:
        return cached, None

    try:
        from ..methods._openai_engine import OpenAIChatEngine
    except ImportError as exc:  # pragma: no cover -- defensive
        return None, f"OpenAI client import failed: {exc!r}"

    api_key = os.environ.get("MACROLENS_LLM_API_KEY", "EMPTY") or "EMPTY"
    n_workers = int(os.environ.get("MACROLENS_LLM_N_WORKERS", "8"))
    timeout = float(os.environ.get("MACROLENS_LLM_TIMEOUT_SEC", "300"))
    try:
        engine = OpenAIChatEngine(
            base_url=base_url, api_key=api_key, model_id=model_id,
            n_workers=n_workers, request_timeout_sec=timeout,
        )
    except Exception as exc:
        return None, f"OpenAIChatEngine construction failed: {exc!r}"

    _LLM_ENGINE_CACHE[cache_key] = engine
    return engine, None


# ── Provenance helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────


def _git_sha() -> str:
    """Return the current git SHA, or ``"unknown"`` if outside a git tree."""
    try:
        out = subprocess.check_output(
            ["git", "rev-parse", "HEAD"], stderr=subprocess.DEVNULL,
        )
        return out.decode().strip()
    except Exception:
        return "unknown"


def _detect_hardware() -> dict[str, str]:
    """Best-effort hardware fingerprint (CPU + GPU + CUDA)."""
    hw: dict[str, str] = {
        "cpu": platform.processor() or platform.machine(),
        "platform": platform.platform(),
        "python_version": platform.python_version(),
    }
    try:
        import torch  # type: ignore

        hw["torch_version"] = torch.__version__
        if torch.cuda.is_available():
            hw["gpu"] = torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)
            hw["n_gpus"] = str(torch.cuda.device_count())
            hw["cuda_version"] = str(torch.version.cuda)
        else:
            hw["gpu"] = "none"
            hw["n_gpus"] = "0"
            hw["cuda_version"] = "n/a"
    except Exception:
        hw["gpu"] = "unknown"
        hw["n_gpus"] = "0"
        hw["cuda_version"] = "n/a"
    return hw


def _truncate_traceback(exc: BaseException) -> str:
    tb = "".join(traceback.format_exception(type(exc), exc, exc.__traceback__))
    if len(tb) > _TRACEBACK_TRUNCATE_BYTES:
        tb = tb[: _TRACEBACK_TRUNCATE_BYTES - 16] + "\n... [truncated]"
    return tb


def _checkpoint_path(
    method_id: str, task: str, granularity: str, seed: int,
    horizon: int | None = None,
) -> Path:
    """Canonical per-run checkpoint directory.

    For T1, ``horizon`` is included in the path so multiple horizons
    on the same (method, task, granularity, seed) tuple each get their
    own fresh fit/save state and never collide.
    """
    base = (
        Path(__file__).resolve().parent
        / "checkpoints"
        / method_id
        / task
        / granularity
        / f"seed={seed}"
    )
    if task == "T1" and horizon is not None:
        base = base / f"h={horizon}"
    return base


def _apply_overrides(config_overrides: dict[str, dict[str, Any]], method_id: str) -> dict[str, Any]:
    """Return the kwarg dict for one method (post-override)."""
    return dict(config_overrides.get(method_id, {}))


def _now_iso() -> str:
    return dt.datetime.now(dt.timezone.utc).isoformat()


# ── Inner per-(method, seed) execution ─────────────────────────────────────


def _make_failed_record(
    *,
    method_id: str,
    method_family: str,
    task: str,
    granularity: str,
    seed: int,
    status: str,
    error: str,
    n_train: int | None,
    n_test: int | None,
    hyperparams: dict[str, Any],
    artifact_sha256: dict[str, str],
    deterministic_mode: bool,
    fit_time_sec: float | None = None,
    predict_time_sec: float | None = None,
    peak_mem_mb: float | None = None,
    ablation_setting: str | None = None,
) -> RunRecord:
    return RunRecord(
        method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
        task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
        status=status, error=error,
        n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
        hyperparams=hyperparams,
        lib_versions={}, hardware=_detect_hardware(),
        fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, predict_time_sec=predict_time_sec,
        peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb, metrics=None,
        artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
        timestamp=_now_iso(), git_sha=_git_sha(),
        deterministic_mode=deterministic_mode,
        ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
    )


def _sanity_gate(
    task: str,
    X_test: Any,
    y_test: Any,
    y_pred: Any,
    y_train: Any,
    meta_test: Any,
) -> str | None:
    """Persistence-/constant-floor sanity gate for regression tasks.

    Compares the model's primary metric on the eval set against a trivial
    reference floor (persistence for T1, train-median/-mean constant for
    T2/T4/T5/T7). If model_metric > 10× baseline_metric (100× for T1's
    persistence floor — kept tight because persistence is itself non-trivial)
    the cell is flagged "suspect" via a returned reason string. T3 and T6
    are long-form per-field tasks; their per-field MAPE floor is implicitly
    the SectorMedian baseline already in the panel, so they are skipped here.

    The gate is best-effort: any internal exception or shape mismatch
    yields ``None`` so the runner never crashes on a sanity probe.
    """
    try:
        import numpy as _np
    except Exception:  # pragma: no cover -- numpy is a hard dep
        return None

    try:
        # ── T1: persistence MSE floor ────────────────────────────────────
        if task == "T1":
            y_t = _np.asarray(y_test, dtype=_np.float64)
            y_p = _np.asarray(y_pred, dtype=_np.float64)
            close_last = None
            if hasattr(meta_test, "columns") and "close_last" in meta_test.columns:
                close_last = _np.asarray(
                    meta_test["close_last"].values, dtype=_np.float64,
                )
            elif hasattr(X_test, "shape") and getattr(X_test, "ndim", 0) == 3:
                close_last = _np.asarray(X_test[:, -1, -1], dtype=_np.float64)
            if (close_last is None
                    or y_t.ndim != 2 or y_p.ndim != 2
                    or y_t.shape != y_p.shape):
                return None
            tile = _np.broadcast_to(close_last[:, None], y_t.shape)
            pers_mse = float(_np.nanmean((tile - y_t) ** 2))
            model_mse = float(_np.nanmean((y_p - y_t) ** 2))
            if not (_np.isfinite(pers_mse) and _np.isfinite(model_mse)
                    and pers_mse > 0):
                return None
            if model_mse > 100.0 * pers_mse:
                return (
                    f"T1 SUSPECT: model_MSE={model_mse:.4g} > 100x "
                    f"persistence_MSE={pers_mse:.4g} on the same eval set; "
                    "model likely emitting un-normalised raw close instead "
                    "of per-window log-returns."
                )
            return None

        # ── T2 / T5: constant (train-median) MAPE floor ─────────────────
        if task in ("T2", "T5"):
            y_tr = _np.asarray(y_train, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            y_t = _np.asarray(y_test, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            y_p = _np.asarray(y_pred, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            if y_t.size == 0 or y_t.shape != y_p.shape:
                return None
            const = float(_np.nanmedian(y_tr))
            if not _np.isfinite(const):
                return None
            denom = _np.abs(y_t)
            mask = _np.isfinite(y_t) & _np.isfinite(y_p) & (denom > 0)
            if not mask.any():
                return None
            const_mape = 100.0 * float(_np.nanmean(
                _np.abs(const - y_t[mask]) / denom[mask]
            ))
            model_mape = 100.0 * float(_np.nanmean(
                _np.abs(y_p[mask] - y_t[mask]) / denom[mask]
            ))
            if not (_np.isfinite(const_mape) and _np.isfinite(model_mape)
                    and const_mape > 0):
                return None
            if model_mape > 10.0 * const_mape:
                return (
                    f"{task} SUSPECT: model_MAPE={model_mape:.4g} > 10x "
                    f"baseline_MAPE={const_mape:.4g} on the same eval set; "
                    "check method implementation"
                )
            return None

        # ── T4: constant (train-mean) MAE floor on return % ─────────────
        if task == "T4":
            y_tr = _np.asarray(y_train, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            y_t = _np.asarray(y_test, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            y_p = _np.asarray(y_pred, dtype=_np.float64).ravel()
            if y_t.size == 0 or y_t.shape != y_p.shape:
                return None
            const = float(_np.nanmean(y_tr))
            if not _np.isfinite(const):
                return None
            mask = _np.isfinite(y_t) & _np.isfinite(y_p)
            if not mask.any():
                return None
            const_mae = float(_np.nanmean(_np.abs(const - y_t[mask])))
            model_mae = float(_np.nanmean(_np.abs(y_p[mask] - y_t[mask])))
            if not (_np.isfinite(const_mae) and _np.isfinite(model_mae)
                    and const_mae > 0):
                return None
            if model_mae > 10.0 * const_mae:
                return (
                    f"T4 SUSPECT: model_MAE={model_mae:.4g} > 10x "
                    f"baseline_MAE={const_mae:.4g} on the same eval set; "
                    "check method implementation"
                )
            return None

        # ── T7: per-target constant (train-median) MAPE floors ──────────
        if task == "T7":
            try:
                import pandas as _pd
            except Exception:  # pragma: no cover
                return None
            if not (isinstance(y_train, _pd.DataFrame)
                    and isinstance(y_test, _pd.DataFrame)
                    and isinstance(y_pred, _pd.DataFrame)):
                return None
            if "address" not in y_test.columns or "address" not in y_pred.columns:
                return None
            merged = y_test.merge(
                y_pred, on="address", how="inner",
                suffixes=("_actual", "_pred"),
            )
            if merged.empty:
                return None
            for target, pred_col in (("rent", "pred_rent"),
                                     ("price", "pred_price")):
                actual_col = target if target in merged.columns else f"{target}_actual"
                if pred_col not in merged.columns or actual_col not in merged.columns:
                    continue
                if target not in y_train.columns:
                    continue
                y_tr = _pd.to_numeric(y_train[target], errors="coerce").to_numpy()
                const = float(_np.nanmedian(y_tr))
                if not _np.isfinite(const):
                    continue
                actual = _pd.to_numeric(merged[actual_col], errors="coerce").to_numpy()
                pred = _pd.to_numeric(merged[pred_col], errors="coerce").to_numpy()
                denom = _np.abs(actual)
                mask = _np.isfinite(actual) & _np.isfinite(pred) & (denom > 0)
                if not mask.any():
                    continue
                const_mape = 100.0 * float(_np.nanmean(
                    _np.abs(const - actual[mask]) / denom[mask]
                ))
                model_mape = 100.0 * float(_np.nanmean(
                    _np.abs(pred[mask] - actual[mask]) / denom[mask]
                ))
                if not (_np.isfinite(const_mape) and _np.isfinite(model_mape)
                        and const_mape > 0):
                    continue
                if model_mape > 10.0 * const_mape:
                    return (
                        f"T7 SUSPECT: model_{target}_MAPE={model_mape:.4g} "
                        f"> 10x baseline_{target}_MAPE={const_mape:.4g} on "
                        "the same eval set; check method implementation"
                    )
            return None

        # T3, T6 (long-form per-field tasks): skipped by design.
        return None
    except Exception:  # noqa: BLE001 -- gate is best-effort
        return None


def _run_one(
    *,
    method_id: str,
    cls: type,
    task: str,
    granularity: str,
    seed: int,
    X_train: Any, y_train: Any, meta_train: Any,
    X_test: Any, y_test: Any, meta_test: Any,
    no_checkpoint: bool,
    deterministic: bool,
    extra_kwargs: dict[str, Any],
) -> RunRecord:
    """Run a single (method, seed) cell on already-loaded data."""
    method_family = getattr(cls, "family", "unknown")
    artifact_sha256: dict[str, str] = {
        **(meta_train.attrs.get("data_sha256") or {}),
        **(meta_test.attrs.get("data_sha256") or {}),
    }
    n_train, n_test = len(X_train), len(X_test)
    ablation_setting = (
        meta_test.attrs.get("ablation_setting")
        if meta_test is not None else None
    )

    # T1 + Persistence: discover the close-feature index from train meta.
    ctor_kwargs: dict[str, Any] = dict(extra_kwargs)
    if task == "T1" and method_id == "persistence":
        feat_names = meta_test.attrs.get("feature_names") or []
        if "close" in feat_names:
            ctor_kwargs["close_feature_idx"] = int(feat_names.index("close"))

    # Ctor.
    try:
        model = cls(task=task, **ctor_kwargs)
    except Exception as exc:  # pragma: no cover -- defensive
        return _make_failed_record(
            method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
            task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
            status="fit_failed",
            error=f"ctor: {_truncate_traceback(exc)}",
            n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
            hyperparams=ctor_kwargs, artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
            deterministic_mode=deterministic,
            ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
        )

    # For T1, derive horizon from y_test/y_train shape so the checkpoint path
    # is horizon-specific. Without this, multiple horizons on the same
    # (method, task, granularity, seed) tuple share one checkpoint dir; the
    # first horizon's manifest gets loaded by every subsequent horizon and
    # the runner silently emits wrong-shape predictions.
    t1_horizon = None
    if task == "T1":
        try:
            import numpy as _np  # noqa: F401
            y_ref = y_test if hasattr(y_test, "shape") else y_train
            if hasattr(y_ref, "shape") and len(y_ref.shape) == 2:
                t1_horizon = int(y_ref.shape[1])
        except Exception:
            t1_horizon = None
    ckpt = _checkpoint_path(method_id, task, granularity, seed, horizon=t1_horizon)
    manifest_path = ckpt / "manifest.json"

    fit_time_sec: float | None = None
    predict_time_sec: float | None = None
    peak_mem_mb: float | None = None

    # Fit (or load from checkpoint).
    try:
        if manifest_path.exists() and not no_checkpoint:
            model = cls.load(ckpt)  # type: ignore[attr-defined]
            fit_time_sec = 0.0
            # cls.load reconstructs state from disk and does NOT preserve
            # injected runtime resources (the LLM-family engine, etc.).
            # Re-attach any kwargs the runner originally injected so
            # ``predict`` does not hit "no engine" failures on a checkpoint
            # round-trip.
            for k, v in ctor_kwargs.items():
                if k in ("task",):
                    continue
                setattr(model, k, v)
            # Also propagate the X_train cache for LLM in-context fitting.
            if method_family in _LLM_FAMILIES:
                if hasattr(model, "_X_train"):
                    model._X_train = X_train
                if hasattr(model, "_y_train"):
                    model._y_train = y_train
        else:
            tracemalloc.start()
            t0 = time.perf_counter()
            model.fit(X_train, y_train, seed=seed)
            fit_time_sec = time.perf_counter() - t0
            _, peak = tracemalloc.get_traced_memory()
            tracemalloc.stop()
            peak_mem_mb = peak / (1024.0 * 1024.0)
            # Skip writing checkpoint state under ``--no-checkpoint`` —
            # those files would never be loaded back (the load branch is
            # gated on ``not no_checkpoint``) and just accumulate.
            if not no_checkpoint:
                try:
                    ckpt.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
                    model.save(ckpt)
                except Exception:  # save failure is non-fatal for the run
                    logger.warning("checkpoint save failed for %s/%s/%s", method_id, task, seed)
    except Exception as exc:
        return _make_failed_record(
            method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
            task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
            status="fit_failed",
            error=_truncate_traceback(exc),
            n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
            hyperparams=model.hyperparams() if hasattr(model, "hyperparams") else ctor_kwargs,
            artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
            deterministic_mode=deterministic,
            fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb,
            ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
        )

    # Predict.
    try:
        t1 = time.perf_counter()
        y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
        predict_time_sec = time.perf_counter() - t1
        # Save y_pred + y_test + meta to parquet/npz so eval can be RE-RUN
        # later without re-doing the expensive predict step. One file per
        # (method, task, seed, ablation_setting). Failures are non-fatal.
        try:
            import pickle
            # Predictions are experimental outputs, not dataset content.
            # Live alongside experiments/results/, not under data_small_caps/.
            pred_dir = Path(__file__).parent / "predictions"
            pred_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
            tag = f"{method_id}_{task}_{granularity}_seed{seed}"
            if task == "T1" and t1_horizon is not None:
                tag += f"_h{t1_horizon}"
            if ablation_setting:
                tag += f"_set{ablation_setting}"
            pred_path = pred_dir / f"{tag}.pkl"
            tmp = pred_path.with_suffix(".pkl.tmp")
            with open(tmp, "wb") as f:
                pickle.dump({
                    "method_id": method_id, "task": task, "seed": seed,
                    "granularity": granularity,
                    "ablation_setting": ablation_setting,
                    "y_pred": y_pred,
                    "y_test": y_test,
                    "meta_test": meta_test,
                    "timestamp": _now_iso(),
                }, f)
            tmp.replace(pred_path)
        except Exception:
            logger.warning("save predictions failed for %s/%s", method_id, task)
    except Exception as exc:
        return _make_failed_record(
            method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
            task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
            status="predict_failed",
            error=_truncate_traceback(exc),
            n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
            hyperparams=model.hyperparams(), artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
            deterministic_mode=deterministic,
            fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb,
            ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
        )

    # Score.
    try:
        # Cluster keys: ticker for T1/T2/T3/T5/T6, scenario_id for T4,
        # address for T7. Loader ``meta`` always carries the right column.
        if task == "T4":
            cluster_keys = (
                meta_test["scenario_id"].values
                if "scenario_id" in meta_test.columns
                else None
            )
        elif task == "T7":
            cluster_keys = (
                meta_test["address"].values
                if "address" in meta_test.columns
                else None
            )
        elif "ticker" in meta_test.columns:
            cluster_keys = meta_test["ticker"].values
        else:
            cluster_keys = None

        score_kwargs: dict[str, Any] = {"cluster_keys": cluster_keys}
        if task == "T1" and "close_last" in meta_test.columns:
            score_kwargs["close_last"] = meta_test["close_last"].values

        metrics = ml.score(task, y_test, y_pred, **score_kwargs)
    except Exception as exc:
        return _make_failed_record(
            method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
            task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
            status="score_failed",
            error=_truncate_traceback(exc),
            n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
            hyperparams=model.hyperparams(), artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
            deterministic_mode=deterministic,
            fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, predict_time_sec=predict_time_sec,
            peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb,
            ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
        )

    # If eval returned a primary metric of None (NaN-only signal — happens
    # when an LLM emits non-canonical field names so the inner-join finds
    # 0 valid (ticker, FY, field) tuples), surface the cell as
    # ``score_failed`` rather than ``status=ok`` with a None metric. This
    # keeps the no-silent-NaN rule honest at the runner level.
    _PRIMARY_METRIC = {
        "T1": "mse", "T2": "median_ape", "T3": "overall_mape",
        "T4": "return_mae_pct", "T5": "median_ape", "T6": "overall_mape",
        "T7": "rent_MAPE",
    }
    primary_key = _PRIMARY_METRIC.get(task)
    primary_mv = (metrics or {}).get(primary_key) if primary_key else None
    primary_value = (
        primary_mv.value if primary_mv is not None
        and hasattr(primary_mv, "value") else None
    )
    if primary_value is None:
        return _make_failed_record(
            method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
            task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
            status="score_failed",
            error=(
                f"primary metric '{primary_key}' is None on {task}; "
                "predictions did not produce any valid (canonical) "
                "match against y_true (e.g. all preds NaN, or non-canonical "
                "field names). Refusing to record status=ok."
            ),
            n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
            hyperparams=model.hyperparams(), artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
            deterministic_mode=deterministic,
            fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, predict_time_sec=predict_time_sec,
            peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb,
            ablation_setting=ablation_setting,
        )

    # ── Per-task persistence/constant-floor sanity gate ─────────────────
    # Blow-up guard: when a regression model's primary metric is
    # >> the trivial-baseline floor on the same eval set it is emitting
    # nonsense (e.g. T1 trained on raw close instead of log-returns —
    # MSE 1e10-1e16; T2/T5 mis-scaled valuations; T4 wrong sign on
    # returns; T7 unit-mixed rent/price). The gate covers T1, T2, T4,
    # T5, T7. T3 / T6 are long-form per-field tasks whose floor is
    # implicitly the SectorMedian baseline and are skipped here.
    suspect_reason: str | None = _sanity_gate(
        task, X_test, y_test, y_pred, y_train, meta_test,
    )
    if suspect_reason is not None:
        logger.warning(suspect_reason)

    return RunRecord(
        method_id=method_id, method_family=method_family,
        task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
        status="ok", error=suspect_reason,
        n_train=n_train, n_test=n_test,
        hyperparams=model.hyperparams(),
        lib_versions=model.lib_versions(),
        hardware=_detect_hardware(),
        fit_time_sec=fit_time_sec, predict_time_sec=predict_time_sec,
        peak_mem_mb=peak_mem_mb, metrics=metrics,
        artifact_sha256=artifact_sha256,
        timestamp=_now_iso(), git_sha=_git_sha(),
        deterministic_mode=deterministic,
        ablation_setting=meta_test.attrs.get("ablation_setting") if meta_test is not None else None,
    )


def _seed_dispatch(args_tuple: tuple) -> RunRecord:
    """Process-pool entry point — unpack args and call :func:`_run_one`."""
    return _run_one(**args_tuple)


# ── Public API ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────


def run_all(
    tasks: list[str],
    methods_list: list[str],
    granularity: str = "daily",
    *,
    seeds: Iterable[int] = (42,),
    deterministic: bool = False,
    no_checkpoint: bool = False,
    multi_seed_parallel: bool = False,
    config_overrides: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] | None = None,
    output_path: Path | None = None,
    setting: str | None = None,
    horizon: int | None = None,
    lookback: int | None = None,
) -> list[RunRecord]:
    """Run every (task, method, seed) cell and persist :class:`RunRecord` JSON.

    Parameters
    ----------
    tasks
        Task ids in ``{"T1","T2","T3","T4","T5","T6","T7"}``.
    methods_list
        Registry ids (matching ``ml.methods.ALL_METHODS`` keys).
    granularity
        ``"daily"`` (default) | ``"weekly"`` | ``"monthly"``.
    seeds
        Iterable of integer seeds. Default ``(42,)``.
    deterministic
        When True, set ``MACROLENS_DETERMINISTIC=1`` and call
        ``torch.use_deterministic_algorithms(True)`` once before any
        method runs.
    no_checkpoint
        When True, ignore any existing checkpoint and re-train; new
        checkpoints are still written.
    multi_seed_parallel
        When True, dispatch one process per seed via
        :class:`concurrent.futures.ProcessPoolExecutor`.
    config_overrides
        Mapping ``{method_id: {kwarg: value, ...}}`` forwarded to the
        method ctor (single-step override path used by the runner-side
        ``--config-override`` flag).
    output_path
        When supplied, write the JSON list to this exact path; otherwise
        write to ``<data_root>/results/<git_sha>_<utc_timestamp>.json``.

    Returns
    -------
    list[RunRecord]
        Every emitted record (including ``status != "ok"`` failures and
        deferred-LLM ``status == "skip"`` placeholders).
    """
    if deterministic:
        os.environ["MACROLENS_DETERMINISTIC"] = "1"
        try:
            import torch  # type: ignore
            torch.use_deterministic_algorithms(True)
            if hasattr(torch.backends, "cudnn"):
                torch.backends.cudnn.deterministic = True
        except Exception:
            pass

    overrides = config_overrides or {}
    seed_list = list(seeds)
    records: list[RunRecord] = []
    adapter = pydantic.TypeAdapter(list[RunRecord])

    # Resolve the output path eagerly so we can checkpoint after every cell.
    if output_path is None:
        ts = dt.datetime.now(dt.timezone.utc).strftime("%Y%m%dT%H%M%SZ")
        sha_short = _git_sha()[:8] if _git_sha() != "unknown" else "nogit"
        # Experiment outputs live under experiments/, NOT under
        # data_small_caps/ (raw + derived benchmark data only).
        results_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "results"
        results_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
        output_path = results_dir / f"{sha_short}_{ts}.json"
    else:
        output_path = Path(output_path)
        output_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)

    def _flush() -> None:
        """Atomic-rename incremental write so a SIGTERM mid-run loses ~0 records."""
        tmp = output_path.with_suffix(".json.tmp")
        tmp.write_bytes(adapter.dump_json(records, indent=2))
        tmp.replace(output_path)

    def _log_cell(method_id: str, task_id: str, family: str, status: str,
                  fit_s: float | None, pred_s: float | None,
                  metrics: dict | None) -> None:
        m_str = ""
        if metrics:
            primary_keys = ("mse", "mape", "median_ape", "return_mae_pct",
                            "rent_MAPE", "overall_mape", "n_predictions")
            for k in primary_keys:
                if k in metrics and hasattr(metrics[k], "value"):
                    v = metrics[k].value
                    m_str = f"  {k}={'None' if v is None else f'{v:.4g}'}"
                    break
        ft = f"{fit_s:.1f}s" if fit_s is not None else "-"
        pt = f"{pred_s:.1f}s" if pred_s is not None else "-"
        print(f"  [{len(records):>3d}] {family:10s} {method_id:18s} {task_id} "
              f"status={status:14s} fit={ft:>6s} predict={pt:>6s}{m_str}",
              flush=True)

    print(f"output_path={output_path}", flush=True)

    if setting is not None:
        valid = {"A", "B", "C", "D", "E"}
        if setting not in valid:
            raise ValueError(f"setting must be in {valid} or None, got {setting!r}")
        print(f"ablation setting={setting}", flush=True)

    for task in tasks:
        print(f"\n=== task={task} ===  loading data...", flush=True)
        t0 = time.perf_counter()
        load_kwargs: dict[str, Any] = {"granularity": granularity}
        if horizon is not None and task == "T1":
            load_kwargs["horizon"] = horizon
        if lookback is not None and task in ("T1", "T4"):
            load_kwargs["lookback"] = lookback
        if setting is not None:
            if task in ("T3", "T6", "T7"):
                print(f"  skipping task={task} for ablation (not in ABLATION_TASKS)",
                      flush=True)
                continue
            load_kwargs["setting"] = setting
        X_train, y_train, meta_train = ml.load(task, "train", **load_kwargs)
        X_test, y_test, meta_test = ml.load(task, "test", **load_kwargs)
        print(f"  loaded in {time.perf_counter()-t0:.1f}s  "
              f"(n_train={len(X_train)}, n_test={len(X_test)})", flush=True)

        for method_name in methods_list:
            cls = ml.methods.ALL_METHODS.get(method_name)
            if cls is None:
                logger.warning("method '%s' not registered; skipping", method_name)
                continue
            if task not in cls.tasks:
                continue  # silent skip per plan

            method_family = getattr(cls, "family", "unknown")
            extra_kwargs = _apply_overrides(overrides, method_name)

            # LLM/LLM-TS/LLM-FT families require an externally-managed vLLM
            # HTTP endpoint. Missing endpoint is a hard error — fail loudly
            # rather than emitting a silent placeholder.
            if method_family in _LLM_FAMILIES:
                engine, err = _resolve_llm_engine(method_name, cls)
                if engine is None:
                    raise RuntimeError(
                        f"{method_name} requires an LLM endpoint but "
                        f"{_llm_endpoint_env_var(method_name)} is unset. "
                        f"Reason: {err}. Either serve the endpoint and set "
                        f"the env var, or omit this method from --method."
                    )
                # Engine resolved — inject via the ctor kwarg path.
                extra_kwargs = {**extra_kwargs, "engine": engine}

            if multi_seed_parallel and len(seed_list) > 1:
                payloads = [
                    {
                        "method_id": method_name, "cls": cls,
                        "task": task, "granularity": granularity, "seed": seed,
                        "X_train": X_train, "y_train": y_train, "meta_train": meta_train,
                        "X_test": X_test, "y_test": y_test, "meta_test": meta_test,
                        "no_checkpoint": no_checkpoint,
                        "deterministic": deterministic,
                        "extra_kwargs": extra_kwargs,
                    }
                    for seed in seed_list
                ]
                with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=len(seed_list)) as ex:
                    futs = [ex.submit(_seed_dispatch, p) for p in payloads]
                    for fut in as_completed(futs):
                        rec = fut.result()
                        records.append(rec)
                        _log_cell(method_name, task, method_family, rec.status,
                                  rec.fit_time_sec, rec.predict_time_sec,
                                  rec.metrics)
                        _flush()
            else:
                for seed in seed_list:
                    rec = _run_one(
                        method_id=method_name, cls=cls,
                        task=task, granularity=granularity, seed=seed,
                        X_train=X_train, y_train=y_train, meta_train=meta_train,
                        X_test=X_test, y_test=y_test, meta_test=meta_test,
                        no_checkpoint=no_checkpoint,
                        deterministic=deterministic,
                        extra_kwargs=extra_kwargs,
                    )
                    records.append(rec)
                    _log_cell(method_name, task, method_family, rec.status,
                              rec.fit_time_sec, rec.predict_time_sec, rec.metrics)
                    _flush()

    _flush()
    logger.info("Wrote %d records to %s", len(records), output_path)
    print(f"\n=== {len(records)} records written to {output_path} ===", flush=True)
    return records


# ── CLI plumbing (kept here for `python -m experiments.run_all` callers) ──


def _parse_overrides(raw: list[str]) -> dict[str, dict[str, Any]]:
    """Parse ``--config-override 'method.key=value'`` flags into a dict."""
    overrides: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {}
    for spec in raw:
        if "=" not in spec or "." not in spec.split("=", 1)[0]:
            raise ValueError(
                f"--config-override expects 'method.key=value', got {spec!r}"
            )
        lhs, value = spec.split("=", 1)
        method_id, key = lhs.split(".", 1)
        # Coerce value: try int, then float, then bool, else str.
        casted: Any = value
        for caster in (int, float):
            try:
                casted = caster(value)
                break
            except ValueError:
                continue
        if isinstance(casted, str) and casted.lower() in ("true", "false"):
            casted = casted.lower() == "true"
        overrides.setdefault(method_id, {})[key] = casted
    return overrides


def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int:
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
    parser.add_argument("--task", nargs="+", required=True,
                        choices=["T1", "T2", "T3", "T4", "T5", "T6", "T7"])
    parser.add_argument("--method", nargs="+", required=True,
                        help="Registry method ids (e.g. persistence lightgbm)")
    parser.add_argument("--granularity", default="daily",
                        choices=["daily", "weekly", "monthly"])
    parser.add_argument("--seeds", type=int, nargs="+", default=[42])
    parser.add_argument("--deterministic", action="store_true")
    parser.add_argument("--no-checkpoint", action="store_true")
    parser.add_argument("--multi-seed-parallel", action="store_true")
    parser.add_argument(
        "--config-override", action="append", default=[],
        help=("Override a single method ctor kwarg, e.g. "
              "'lightgbm.n_estimators=20'. Repeatable."),
    )
    parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, default=None,
                        help="Optional explicit output path.")
    parser.add_argument(
        "--setting", choices=["A", "B", "C", "D", "E"], default=None,
        help=("Ablation feature-tier (A: OHLCV; B: +Fundamentals; "
              "C: +Macro; D: +Scenario flags; E: D + filing text in prompt). "
              "Applies to T1, T2, T4, T5 only; T3/T6/T7 silently skipped."),
    )
    parser.add_argument(
        "--horizon", type=int, default=None,
        help=("Forecast horizon for T1; ignored for T2-T7. Default: longest "
              "canonical horizon for the granularity "
              "(daily=252, weekly=52, monthly=12)."),
    )
    parser.add_argument(
        "--lookback", type=int, default=None,
        help=("Lookback window length for T1/T4; ignored for non-sequence "
              "tasks. Default: shortest canonical lookback for the granularity "
              "(daily=63, weekly=13, monthly=3). Use a longer value (e.g. "
              "monthly=12) for architectures whose downsample stack needs "
              "more timesteps."),
    )
    args = parser.parse_args(argv)

    logging.basicConfig(
        level=logging.INFO,
        format="%(asctime)s %(levelname)s  %(message)s",
        datefmt="%H:%M:%S",
    )
    overrides = _parse_overrides(args.config_override)
    run_all(
        tasks=args.task, methods_list=args.method,
        granularity=args.granularity, seeds=args.seeds,
        deterministic=args.deterministic,
        no_checkpoint=args.no_checkpoint,
        multi_seed_parallel=args.multi_seed_parallel,
        config_overrides=overrides,
        output_path=args.output,
        setting=args.setting,
        horizon=args.horizon,
        lookback=args.lookback,
    )
    return 0


if __name__ == "__main__":  # pragma: no cover
    sys.exit(main())