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Datasets:
od2961
/
inductive-forecasting-data

Tasks:
Text Generation
Reinforcement Learning
Modalities:
Tabular
Text
Formats:
parquet
Languages:
English
Size:
100K - 1M
Tags:
forecasting
reasoning
prediction-markets
synthetic-data
behavioral-evaluation
Libraries:
Datasets
Dask
Polars
License:
Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
inductive-forecasting-data
File size: 3,814 Bytes
2bdd144
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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{
  "fit_on": "train only",
  "platt_parameters": {
    "intercept": 0.03165908124411149,
    "l2": 0.0001,
    "market_logit_slope": 1.2074722457582534
  },
  "protocol_version": "exp3b_registered_v1",
  "splits": {
    "dev": {
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        "ece_10_bin": 0.041379882812499984,
        "log_loss_nats": 0.3951615673908744,
        "mean_forecast": 0.30462597656250007,
        "n": 512,
        "yes_rate": 0.275390625
      },
      "platt_market_train_only": {
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        "ece_10_bin": 0.05328291793905943,
        "log_loss_nats": 0.4000855801260898,
        "mean_forecast": 0.2950303938774148,
        "n": 512,
        "yes_rate": 0.275390625
      },
      "platt_minus_market_brier": {
        "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000,
        "ci95_high": 0.0037101134214000027,
        "ci95_low": -0.0011426664148143136,
        "estimate": 0.0010486398234946378,
        "family_cluster_count": 274
      },
      "train_climatology": {
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        "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341041,
        "n": 512,
        "yes_rate": 0.275390625
      }
    },
    "test": {
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        "ece_10_bin": 0.05205224609374999,
        "log_loss_nats": 0.36581226603060973,
        "mean_forecast": 0.3226118164062503,
        "n": 1024,
        "yes_rate": 0.30078125
      },
      "platt_market_train_only": {
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        "mean_forecast": 0.31328321743020504,
        "n": 1024,
        "yes_rate": 0.30078125
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      "platt_minus_market_brier": {
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        "ci95_high": -0.00010841218184253232,
        "ci95_low": -0.0026219398380300752,
        "estimate": -0.0013686833582691746,
        "family_cluster_count": 466
      },
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        "yes_rate": 0.30078125
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    },
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        "log_loss_nats": 0.30111382163185013,
        "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341009,
        "n": 1736,
        "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137
      },
      "platt_minus_market_brier": {
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        "ci95_high": 0.0007226412414162426,
        "ci95_low": -0.001281010305049825,
        "estimate": -0.0003176709991990625,
        "family_cluster_count": 918
      },
      "train_climatology": {
        "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.6889400921658986,
        "brier": 0.21430164157233902,
        "ece_10_bin": 1.0325074129013956e-14,
        "log_loss_nats": 0.6199460927801355,
        "mean_forecast": 0.31105990783409104,
        "n": 1736,
        "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137
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  },
  "train_yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137
}