| { |
| "analysis": { |
| "aggregation": "directional correctness is computed within market and averaged equally across markets; eligibility fractions are record-weighted", |
| "correctness_rule": "expected_direction * delta > 0", |
| "deduplication": "same rule as evaluate_consistency._load_all_updated_forecasts", |
| "directions": [ |
| "pro_H1", |
| "anti_H1" |
| ], |
| "normalization": "initial yes, updated yes, and updated H1 are normalized independently from the documented [0,1]/[0,100] formats before deltas are computed", |
| "threshold_0_interpretation": "unconditional over all valid relevant records; zero movement is incorrect", |
| "threshold_rule": "eligible iff abs(delta) >= threshold", |
| "thresholds_pp": [ |
| 0, |
| 1, |
| 3, |
| 5 |
| ] |
| }, |
| "generated_at": "2026-08-21T19:52:07.333924+00:00", |
| "model_order": [ |
| "claude-opus-4-8", |
| "gpt-5.4", |
| "DeepSeek-V4-Pro", |
| "llama3.3:70b", |
| "llama3.1:70b", |
| "qwen2.5:72b", |
| "qwen2.5:32b", |
| "qwen2.5:14b", |
| "qwen2.5:7b", |
| "llama3.1:8b" |
| ], |
| "per_model": { |
| "DeepSeek-V4-Pro": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.12666439057698872, |
| "below_3pp_records": 371, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 71, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2848, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2929, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9728850574712644, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006319634733847656, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2766, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9679071355411403, |
| "eligible_records": 2835, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9760770686085527, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005945552710050616, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 2496, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.8733356094230112, |
| "eligible_records": 2558, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9772680804258765, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005911561768331874, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 2177, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.7603277569136224, |
| "eligible_records": 2227, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9800078631776905, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005509612223556401, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2929 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.12632297712529875, |
| "below_3pp_records": 370, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 71, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2849, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2929, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9732298850574712, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006151701797933327, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2767, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9682485489928303, |
| "eligible_records": 2836, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9761879060469764, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005890307728488038, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 2497, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.8736770228747013, |
| "eligible_records": 2559, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9773789178643001, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005855768421539181, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 2178, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.7606691703653123, |
| "eligible_records": 2228, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9801078631776905, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005468195726572731, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2929 |
| }, |
| "relevant_records": 3000, |
| "schema_adherence": { |
| "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.999662276258021, |
| "exact_after_normalization_records": 2960, |
| "paired_valid_records": 2961, |
| "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0, |
| "within_2pp_fraction": 0.999662276258021, |
| "within_2pp_records": 2960 |
| } |
| }, |
| "claude-opus-4-8": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648, |
| "below_3pp_records": 383, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 1000, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 79, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2078, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2119, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9821729957805904, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005345483633334157, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 79, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2024, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9697970740915526, |
| "eligible_records": 2055, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9861274728472456, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004595947655069412, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 79, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 1716, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352, |
| "eligible_records": 1736, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 78, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1330, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976, |
| "eligible_records": 1339, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 78, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2119 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648, |
| "below_3pp_records": 383, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 1000, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 79, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2081, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2119, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9834388185654008, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004998497896564774, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 79, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2027, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9712128362435111, |
| "eligible_records": 2058, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9862115732368896, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.00458340785610127, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 79, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 1716, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352, |
| "eligible_records": 1736, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 78, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1330, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976, |
| "eligible_records": 1339, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 78, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2119 |
| }, |
| "relevant_records": 3119, |
| "schema_adherence": { |
| "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9985842378480415, |
| "exact_after_normalization_records": 2116, |
| "paired_valid_records": 2119, |
| "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0, |
| "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0, |
| "within_2pp_records": 2119 |
| } |
| }, |
| "gpt-5.4": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.06908140403286034, |
| "below_3pp_records": 185, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 122, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 101, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2640, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2678, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2611, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9891710231516057, |
| "eligible_records": 2649, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 2465, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9309185959671397, |
| "eligible_records": 2493, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9869419732858871, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.00488792947560723, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1948, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.7326362957430919, |
| "eligible_records": 1962, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883014772065442, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006771229716410639, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2678 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.06892697466467958, |
| "below_3pp_records": 185, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 116, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 101, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 2646, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 2684, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 2617, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9891952309985097, |
| "eligible_records": 2655, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 2471, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9310730253353204, |
| "eligible_records": 2499, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9870107301615746, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004881453938556118, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1954, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.7332339791356185, |
| "eligible_records": 1968, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883702340822317, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006766418577304826, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 101, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 2684 |
| }, |
| "relevant_records": 2800, |
| "schema_adherence": { |
| "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0, |
| "exact_after_normalization_records": 2731, |
| "paired_valid_records": 2731, |
| "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0, |
| "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0, |
| "within_2pp_records": 2731 |
| } |
| }, |
| "llama3.1:70b": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889, |
| "below_3pp_records": 10, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 0, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 99, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 1593, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1659, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 1593, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1659, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 1583, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851, |
| "eligible_records": 1649, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1521, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909, |
| "eligible_records": 1571, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 1659 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889, |
| "below_3pp_records": 10, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 0, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 99, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 1593, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1659, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 1593, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1659, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 1583, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851, |
| "eligible_records": 1649, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1521, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909, |
| "eligible_records": 1571, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 99, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 1659 |
| }, |
| "relevant_records": 1659, |
| "schema_adherence": { |
| "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0, |
| "exact_after_normalization_records": 1659, |
| "paired_valid_records": 1659, |
| "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0, |
| "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0, |
| "within_2pp_records": 1659 |
| } |
| }, |
| "llama3.1:8b": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.01721743960011108, |
| "below_3pp_records": 62, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 3, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 3192, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 3601, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8813965517241381, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015481273499110862, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 3191, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9930574840322133, |
| "eligible_records": 3576, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874695311074623, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015452513947883826, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 3157, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9827825603998889, |
| "eligible_records": 3539, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874909688013136, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015477113613372208, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 2970, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9222438211607886, |
| "eligible_records": 3321, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8892565490434986, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015499442701630005, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 3601 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.014428412874583796, |
| "below_3pp_records": 52, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 0, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 3204, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 3604, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8838333333333336, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015513028086226111, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 3203, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9958379578246392, |
| "eligible_records": 3589, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874072249589494, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015473836121580433, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 3169, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9855715871254163, |
| "eligible_records": 3552, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874327494982669, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015498554130008078, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 2982, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9250832408435072, |
| "eligible_records": 3334, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8891995048855622, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.01552095936223494, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 3604 |
| }, |
| "relevant_records": 3604, |
| "schema_adherence": { |
| "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9972229936128854, |
| "exact_after_normalization_records": 3591, |
| "paired_valid_records": 3601, |
| "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 166, |
| "within_2pp_fraction": 0.9972229936128854, |
| "within_2pp_records": 3591 |
| } |
| }, |
| "llama3.3:70b": { |
| "EHC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006711409395973154, |
| "below_3pp_records": 12, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 0, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 1724, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1788, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846701233147148, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 0 |
| }, |
| "1": { |
| "correct_records": 1724, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1788, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846701233147148, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 1 |
| }, |
| "3": { |
| "correct_records": 1714, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.9932885906040269, |
| "eligible_records": 1776, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.965347222222222, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008764948906138752, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 3 |
| }, |
| "5": { |
| "correct_records": 1561, |
| "eligible_fraction": 0.895413870246085, |
| "eligible_records": 1601, |
| "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9742046221752103, |
| "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007661424887173171, |
| "markets_with_eligible_records": 100, |
| "threshold_pp": 5 |
| } |
| }, |
| "valid_relevant_records": 1788 |
| }, |
| "HFC": { |
| "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006711409395973154, |
| "below_3pp_records": 12, |
| "invalid_relevant_records": 0, |
| "markets_with_valid_records": 100, |
| "thresholds": { |
| "0": { |
| "correct_records": 1724, |
| "eligible_fraction": 1.0, |
| "eligible_records": 1788, |
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