forecasts @ 6 files, 36 replay artifacts
Browse files- README.md +13 -3
- data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl +40 -0
- data/baseline-nbm.jsonl +40 -0
- data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl +320 -0
- replay/lineage.json +259 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json +772 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md +223 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json +772 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md +223 -0
- replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl +0 -0
README.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
|
|
| 21 |
|
| 22 |
| file | what | lines / bytes |
|
| 23 |
|---|---|---|
|
| 24 |
-
| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 23,
|
| 25 |
| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 2,520 |
|
| 26 |
| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,294 |
|
| 27 |
| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,185 |
|
| 28 |
-
| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 1,
|
| 29 |
-
| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 1,
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
|
| 32 |
|
|
@@ -49,19 +49,29 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
|
|
| 49 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
|
| 50 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
|
| 51 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 52 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
|
| 53 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
|
| 54 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
|
| 55 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
|
| 56 |
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 57 |
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 58 |
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 59 |
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 60 |
- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 61 |
- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 62 |
- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 63 |
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 64 |
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 65 |
|
| 66 |
## Conventions
|
| 67 |
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
|
| 22 |
| file | what | lines / bytes |
|
| 23 |
|---|---|---|
|
| 24 |
+
| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 23,562 |
|
| 25 |
| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 2,520 |
|
| 26 |
| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,294 |
|
| 27 |
| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,185 |
|
| 28 |
+
| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 1,920 |
|
| 29 |
+
| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 1,920 |
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
|
| 32 |
|
|
|
|
| 49 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
|
| 50 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
|
| 51 |
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
|
| 52 |
+
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json`
|
| 53 |
+
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md`
|
| 54 |
+
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json`
|
| 55 |
+
- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md`
|
| 56 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
|
| 57 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
|
| 58 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
|
| 59 |
- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md`
|
| 60 |
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 61 |
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
| 62 |
+
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
|
| 63 |
+
- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
|
| 64 |
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 65 |
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
| 66 |
+
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
|
| 67 |
+
- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
|
| 68 |
- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 69 |
- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 70 |
- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 71 |
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
|
| 72 |
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
|
| 73 |
+
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
|
| 74 |
+
- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl`
|
| 75 |
|
| 76 |
## Conventions
|
| 77 |
|
data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl
CHANGED
|
@@ -1878,3 +1878,43 @@
|
|
| 1878 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1879 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1880 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1878 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1879 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1880 |
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1881 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
|
| 1882 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
|
| 1883 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1884 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
|
| 1885 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
|
| 1886 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
|
| 1887 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1888 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1889 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
|
| 1890 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
|
| 1891 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1892 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1893 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
|
| 1894 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1895 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1896 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1897 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
|
| 1898 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1899 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 99.0}
|
| 1900 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1901 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 96.0}
|
| 1902 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
|
| 1903 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 98.0}
|
| 1904 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
|
| 1905 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
|
| 1906 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
|
| 1907 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 99.0}
|
| 1908 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1909 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
|
| 1910 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
|
| 1911 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1912 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1913 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
|
| 1914 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1915 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
|
| 1916 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1917 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1918 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
|
| 1919 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 99.0}
|
| 1920 |
+
{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
data/baseline-nbm.jsonl
CHANGED
|
@@ -1878,3 +1878,43 @@
|
|
| 1878 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1879 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1880 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1878 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1879 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1880 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "runtime": "2026-09-11T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1881 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
|
| 1882 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
|
| 1883 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 101.0}
|
| 1884 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
|
| 1885 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
|
| 1886 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
|
| 1887 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 101.0}
|
| 1888 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
|
| 1889 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
|
| 1890 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
|
| 1891 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1892 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
|
| 1893 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
|
| 1894 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1895 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1896 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1897 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
|
| 1898 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
|
| 1899 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 99.0}
|
| 1900 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "runtime": "2026-09-12T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1901 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
|
| 1902 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
|
| 1903 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1904 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
|
| 1905 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
|
| 1906 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
|
| 1907 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
|
| 1908 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
|
| 1909 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
|
| 1910 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
|
| 1911 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
|
| 1912 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
|
| 1913 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
|
| 1914 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
|
| 1915 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
|
| 1916 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
|
| 1917 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
| 1918 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 69.0}
|
| 1919 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 98.0}
|
| 1920 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "runtime": "2026-09-13T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
|
data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl
CHANGED
|
@@ -23240,3 +23240,323 @@
|
|
| 23240 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.29, "spread": 1.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 78.2, "gem_seamless": 73.6, "ukmo_seamless": 77.6, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 76.7}}
|
| 23241 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 6, "mean": 92.94, "spread": 3.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.2, "icon_seamless": 94.9, "gem_seamless": 94.0, "ukmo_seamless": 94.1, "jma_seamless": 87.9, "graphcast": 88.0}}
|
| 23242 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 6, "mean": 76.5, "spread": 0.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.9, "icon_seamless": 76.4, "gem_seamless": 76.0, "ukmo_seamless": 75.5, "jma_seamless": 77.8, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23240 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.29, "spread": 1.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 78.2, "gem_seamless": 73.6, "ukmo_seamless": 77.6, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 76.7}}
|
| 23241 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 6, "mean": 92.94, "spread": 3.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.2, "icon_seamless": 94.9, "gem_seamless": 94.0, "ukmo_seamless": 94.1, "jma_seamless": 87.9, "graphcast": 88.0}}
|
| 23242 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 6, "mean": 76.5, "spread": 0.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.9, "icon_seamless": 76.4, "gem_seamless": 76.0, "ukmo_seamless": 75.5, "jma_seamless": 77.8, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
| 23243 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 78.0}
|
| 23244 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 63.0}
|
| 23245 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 83.0}
|
| 23246 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 65.0}
|
| 23247 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 93.0}
|
| 23248 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 81.0}
|
| 23249 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 85.0}
|
| 23250 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 72.0}
|
| 23251 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 102.0}
|
| 23252 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 77.0}
|
| 23253 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 101.0}
|
| 23254 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 76.0}
|
| 23255 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 88.0}
|
| 23256 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 68.0}
|
| 23257 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 100.0}
|
| 23258 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 79.0}
|
| 23259 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 79.0}
|
| 23260 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 50.0}
|
| 23261 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 82.0}
|
| 23262 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-12", "value": 72.0}
|
| 23263 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 97.91, "spread": 3.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 101.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.6, "icon_seamless": 100.5, "gem_seamless": 97.9, "ukmo_seamless": 98.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.4, "jma_seamless": 95.1, "graphcast": 90.6}}
|
| 23264 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 80.51, "spread": 1.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.5, "icon_seamless": 80.0, "gem_seamless": 79.1, "ukmo_seamless": 81.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.3, "jma_seamless": 83.0, "graphcast": 78.3}}
|
| 23265 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 97.3, "spread": 3.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.3, "icon_seamless": 99.8, "gem_seamless": 97.3, "ukmo_seamless": 99.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.3, "jma_seamless": 94.4, "graphcast": 89.7}}
|
| 23266 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 81.1, "spread": 2.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 79.4, "gem_seamless": 80.8, "ukmo_seamless": 82.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.6, "jma_seamless": 80.7, "graphcast": 77.4}}
|
| 23267 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 98.25, "spread": 4.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 102.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 100.3, "icon_seamless": 100.7, "gem_seamless": 97.6, "ukmo_seamless": 99.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.1, "jma_seamless": 94.7, "graphcast": 90.2}}
|
| 23268 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 80.42, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.9, "icon_seamless": 79.2, "gem_seamless": 80.2, "ukmo_seamless": 81.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.2, "jma_seamless": 80.5, "graphcast": 77.7}}
|
| 23269 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 97.55, "spread": 3.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 101.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.6, "icon_seamless": 100.9, "gem_seamless": 97.0, "ukmo_seamless": 97.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.4, "jma_seamless": 94.6, "graphcast": 89.9}}
|
| 23270 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 81.75, "spread": 3.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.9, "icon_seamless": 80.5, "gem_seamless": 78.1, "ukmo_seamless": 82.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 86.5, "jma_seamless": 81.4, "graphcast": 77.2}}
|
| 23271 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 96.09, "spread": 3.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.0, "icon_seamless": 99.0, "gem_seamless": 96.9, "ukmo_seamless": 94.6, "jma_seamless": 94.7, "graphcast": 89.2}}
|
| 23272 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.19, "spread": 3.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.7, "icon_seamless": 80.9, "gem_seamless": 76.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.9, "jma_seamless": 82.4, "graphcast": 77.7}}
|
| 23273 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 95.93, "spread": 4.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.2, "icon_seamless": 100.5, "gem_seamless": 95.0, "ukmo_seamless": 94.9, "jma_seamless": 94.5, "graphcast": 88.3}}
|
| 23274 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.74, "spread": 4.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.3, "icon_seamless": 80.9, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 82.4, "jma_seamless": 85.3, "graphcast": 77.6}}
|
| 23275 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 97.65, "spread": 3.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 102.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.3, "icon_seamless": 99.5, "gem_seamless": 93.6, "ukmo_seamless": 95.3, "jma_seamless": 97.7}}
|
| 23276 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 79.03, "spread": 6.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 86.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.0, "icon_seamless": 74.2, "gem_seamless": 68.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.7, "jma_seamless": 85.3}}
|
| 23277 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 79.31, "spread": 3.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.2, "icon_seamless": 81.0, "gem_seamless": 80.8, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.2, "jma_seamless": 79.4, "graphcast": 74.1}}
|
| 23278 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 67.88, "spread": 1.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.0, "icon_seamless": 66.9, "gem_seamless": 64.3, "ukmo_seamless": 68.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.0, "jma_seamless": 69.2, "graphcast": 69.5}}
|
| 23279 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 80.38, "spread": 4.28, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 88.3, "icon_seamless": 82.2, "gem_seamless": 82.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.4, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 73.4}}
|
| 23280 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 66.78, "spread": 3.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.6, "icon_seamless": 63.9, "gem_seamless": 62.7, "ukmo_seamless": 68.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.4, "jma_seamless": 70.4, "graphcast": 69.2}}
|
| 23281 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.33, "spread": 3.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.6, "icon_seamless": 82.2, "gem_seamless": 81.5, "ukmo_seamless": 76.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.6, "jma_seamless": 75.7, "graphcast": 73.0}}
|
| 23282 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 66.86, "spread": 2.67, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.1, "icon_seamless": 68.2, "gem_seamless": 62.7, "ukmo_seamless": 68.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.5, "jma_seamless": 68.6, "graphcast": 69.4}}
|
| 23283 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.61, "spread": 3.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.1, "icon_seamless": 80.3, "gem_seamless": 77.7, "ukmo_seamless": 74.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.7, "jma_seamless": 75.1, "graphcast": 72.2}}
|
| 23284 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.91, "spread": 2.12, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.5, "icon_seamless": 67.3, "gem_seamless": 62.3, "ukmo_seamless": 66.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 68.8, "graphcast": 68.6}}
|
| 23285 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 75.46, "spread": 3.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.4, "icon_seamless": 78.9, "gem_seamless": 73.7, "ukmo_seamless": 73.4, "jma_seamless": 76.1, "graphcast": 71.5}}
|
| 23286 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.19, "spread": 2.78, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.0, "icon_seamless": 66.3, "gem_seamless": 60.0, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "jma_seamless": 67.6, "graphcast": 67.5}}
|
| 23287 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.23, "spread": 4.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.2, "icon_seamless": 79.9, "gem_seamless": 75.2, "ukmo_seamless": 74.3, "jma_seamless": 79.8, "graphcast": 71.3}}
|
| 23288 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 64.46, "spread": 3.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.2, "icon_seamless": 61.3, "gem_seamless": 58.0, "ukmo_seamless": 66.6, "jma_seamless": 66.1, "graphcast": 67.1}}
|
| 23289 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 77.93, "spread": 3.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.8, "icon_seamless": 81.2, "gem_seamless": 75.3, "ukmo_seamless": 73.5, "jma_seamless": 79.4}}
|
| 23290 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 64.73, "spread": 4.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.3, "icon_seamless": 60.8, "gem_seamless": 58.1, "ukmo_seamless": 67.7, "jma_seamless": 66.8}}
|
| 23291 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 78.12, "spread": 2.12, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 79.7, "gem_seamless": 77.5, "ukmo_seamless": 81.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.3, "jma_seamless": 74.3, "graphcast": 77.8}}
|
| 23292 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 68.91, "spread": 1.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.5, "icon_seamless": 71.3, "gem_seamless": 69.1, "ukmo_seamless": 69.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.2, "jma_seamless": 68.4, "graphcast": 69.2}}
|
| 23293 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 74.22, "spread": 2.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.9, "icon_seamless": 73.6, "gem_seamless": 75.3, "ukmo_seamless": 78.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.3, "jma_seamless": 74.8, "graphcast": 74.5}}
|
| 23294 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 62.99, "spread": 3.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.7, "icon_seamless": 64.7, "gem_seamless": 62.1, "ukmo_seamless": 68.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.9, "jma_seamless": 62.7, "graphcast": 65.4}}
|
| 23295 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 71.88, "spread": 1.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.9, "icon_seamless": 71.3, "gem_seamless": 71.3, "ukmo_seamless": 71.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.6, "jma_seamless": 72.3, "graphcast": 71.8}}
|
| 23296 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 56.6, "spread": 3.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 50.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.1, "icon_seamless": 59.0, "gem_seamless": 55.3, "ukmo_seamless": 60.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.5, "jma_seamless": 55.5, "graphcast": 57.3}}
|
| 23297 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.97, "spread": 1.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.3, "icon_seamless": 78.1, "gem_seamless": 79.1, "ukmo_seamless": 80.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.1, "jma_seamless": 80.0, "graphcast": 78.9}}
|
| 23298 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 60.65, "spread": 2.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.3, "icon_seamless": 62.1, "gem_seamless": 56.0, "ukmo_seamless": 64.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.4, "jma_seamless": 61.1, "graphcast": 60.9}}
|
| 23299 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.13, "spread": 2.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.3, "icon_seamless": 80.4, "gem_seamless": 82.2, "ukmo_seamless": 81.7, "jma_seamless": 80.9, "graphcast": 79.8}}
|
| 23300 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 68.2, "spread": 1.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.0, "icon_seamless": 68.1, "gem_seamless": 68.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.0, "jma_seamless": 68.6, "graphcast": 67.4}}
|
| 23301 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 79.23, "spread": 3.96, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.7, "icon_seamless": 75.3, "gem_seamless": 82.3, "ukmo_seamless": 84.2, "jma_seamless": 74.3, "graphcast": 75.9}}
|
| 23302 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 68.49, "spread": 2.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.2, "icon_seamless": 68.7, "gem_seamless": 71.0, "ukmo_seamless": 72.2, "jma_seamless": 64.4, "graphcast": 68.7}}
|
| 23303 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 74.6, "spread": 3.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.9, "icon_seamless": 72.7, "gem_seamless": 70.8, "ukmo_seamless": 77.4, "jma_seamless": 76.6}}
|
| 23304 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 64.47, "spread": 3.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.8, "icon_seamless": 65.1, "gem_seamless": 63.2, "ukmo_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 60.2}}
|
| 23305 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 81.91, "spread": 2.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.2, "icon_seamless": 83.0, "gem_seamless": 81.9, "ukmo_seamless": 85.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.8, "jma_seamless": 76.9, "graphcast": 81.4}}
|
| 23306 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 70.78, "spread": 0.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 70.8, "gem_seamless": 71.9, "ukmo_seamless": 71.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.3, "jma_seamless": 70.3, "graphcast": 71.9}}
|
| 23307 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 75.76, "spread": 1.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.4, "icon_seamless": 75.3, "gem_seamless": 76.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.7, "jma_seamless": 76.0, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
| 23308 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 65.05, "spread": 3.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.8, "icon_seamless": 64.2, "gem_seamless": 66.7, "ukmo_seamless": 70.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.4, "jma_seamless": 67.4, "graphcast": 66.9}}
|
| 23309 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 76.94, "spread": 1.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.2, "icon_seamless": 76.4, "gem_seamless": 77.9, "ukmo_seamless": 77.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.7, "jma_seamless": 75.9, "graphcast": 76.1}}
|
| 23310 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 57.69, "spread": 2.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.7, "icon_seamless": 57.6, "gem_seamless": 58.8, "ukmo_seamless": 62.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.7, "jma_seamless": 57.6, "graphcast": 58.5}}
|
| 23311 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 80.76, "spread": 1.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.3, "icon_seamless": 81.0, "gem_seamless": 82.4, "ukmo_seamless": 81.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.7, "jma_seamless": 81.8, "graphcast": 79.1}}
|
| 23312 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 60.73, "spread": 2.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.5, "icon_seamless": 59.9, "gem_seamless": 56.5, "ukmo_seamless": 64.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.0, "jma_seamless": 62.2, "graphcast": 62.3}}
|
| 23313 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 83.27, "spread": 1.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 86.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.8, "icon_seamless": 83.7, "gem_seamless": 83.3, "ukmo_seamless": 84.1, "jma_seamless": 83.1, "graphcast": 81.9}}
|
| 23314 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.29, "spread": 1.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.9, "icon_seamless": 64.6, "gem_seamless": 66.0, "ukmo_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 68.7, "graphcast": 67.5}}
|
| 23315 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 82.54, "spread": 3.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.9, "icon_seamless": 79.4, "gem_seamless": 86.5, "ukmo_seamless": 86.2, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 77.9}}
|
| 23316 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 70.03, "spread": 0.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.9, "icon_seamless": 69.3, "gem_seamless": 70.6, "ukmo_seamless": 70.8, "jma_seamless": 69.2, "graphcast": 71.2}}
|
| 23317 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 77.5, "spread": 2.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.7, "icon_seamless": 78.1, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 80.8, "jma_seamless": 77.4}}
|
| 23318 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 66.48, "spread": 3.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.3, "icon_seamless": 65.8, "gem_seamless": 66.1, "ukmo_seamless": 71.9, "jma_seamless": 63.4}}
|
| 23319 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 95.78, "spread": 4.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.2, "icon_seamless": 97.1, "gem_seamless": 98.2, "ukmo_seamless": 97.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.2, "jma_seamless": 86.6, "graphcast": 91.3}}
|
| 23320 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 78.88, "spread": 1.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.3, "icon_seamless": 79.0, "gem_seamless": 79.6, "ukmo_seamless": 78.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.9, "jma_seamless": 78.7, "graphcast": 78.8}}
|
| 23321 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 95.51, "spread": 4.33, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.2, "icon_seamless": 94.3, "gem_seamless": 97.3, "ukmo_seamless": 99.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.0, "jma_seamless": 88.3, "graphcast": 90.6}}
|
| 23322 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 79.12, "spread": 1.11, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 78.0, "gem_seamless": 79.9, "ukmo_seamless": 79.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.1, "jma_seamless": 77.7, "graphcast": 78.4}}
|
| 23323 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 97.53, "spread": 5.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 102.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 101.2, "icon_seamless": 98.3, "gem_seamless": 98.2, "ukmo_seamless": 97.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 102.3, "jma_seamless": 88.1, "graphcast": 91.6}}
|
| 23324 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.41, "spread": 1.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.7, "icon_seamless": 77.3, "gem_seamless": 79.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.5, "jma_seamless": 78.5, "graphcast": 78.4}}
|
| 23325 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 96.56, "spread": 4.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 102.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.0, "icon_seamless": 97.6, "gem_seamless": 96.9, "ukmo_seamless": 96.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.3, "jma_seamless": 89.0, "graphcast": 89.7}}
|
| 23326 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.28, "spread": 1.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.3, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 77.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.1, "jma_seamless": 78.3, "graphcast": 77.5}}
|
| 23327 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 93.01, "spread": 3.94, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.9, "icon_seamless": 97.9, "gem_seamless": 93.5, "ukmo_seamless": 93.7, "jma_seamless": 87.0, "graphcast": 88.6}}
|
| 23328 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 76.89, "spread": 1.75, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.6, "icon_seamless": 75.4, "gem_seamless": 74.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.4, "jma_seamless": 77.6, "graphcast": 76.8}}
|
| 23329 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 93.7, "spread": 4.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.2, "icon_seamless": 93.9, "gem_seamless": 91.2, "ukmo_seamless": 96.0, "jma_seamless": 92.0, "graphcast": 87.5}}
|
| 23330 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 75.59, "spread": 1.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.6, "icon_seamless": 75.5, "gem_seamless": 77.4, "ukmo_seamless": 74.9, "jma_seamless": 75.9, "graphcast": 76.3}}
|
| 23331 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 95.22, "spread": 3.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 101.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.8, "icon_seamless": 97.5, "gem_seamless": 92.4, "ukmo_seamless": 91.7, "jma_seamless": 93.9}}
|
| 23332 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 73.23, "spread": 3.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.2, "icon_seamless": 71.7, "gem_seamless": 67.7, "ukmo_seamless": 77.4, "jma_seamless": 76.3}}
|
| 23333 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 74.3, "spread": 1.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.5, "icon_seamless": 74.5, "gem_seamless": 75.9, "ukmo_seamless": 76.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.8, "jma_seamless": 74.2, "graphcast": 71.1}}
|
| 23334 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 59.67, "spread": 2.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.1, "icon_seamless": 56.1, "gem_seamless": 57.8, "ukmo_seamless": 64.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.7, "jma_seamless": 58.3, "graphcast": 61.3}}
|
| 23335 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 74.29, "spread": 2.26, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.5, "icon_seamless": 73.3, "gem_seamless": 75.8, "ukmo_seamless": 76.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.8, "jma_seamless": 75.3, "graphcast": 69.6}}
|
| 23336 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 55.16, "spread": 2.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.4, "icon_seamless": 52.8, "gem_seamless": 53.3, "ukmo_seamless": 60.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.5, "jma_seamless": 54.0, "graphcast": 55.7}}
|
| 23337 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 82.35, "spread": 1.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.2, "icon_seamless": 86.3, "gem_seamless": 84.2, "ukmo_seamless": 81.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.4, "jma_seamless": 81.0, "graphcast": 82.3}}
|
| 23338 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 67.4, "spread": 2.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.1, "icon_seamless": 65.6, "gem_seamless": 67.5, "ukmo_seamless": 68.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.8, "jma_seamless": 71.8, "graphcast": 67.9}}
|
| 23339 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 72.41, "spread": 1.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.2, "icon_seamless": 76.4, "gem_seamless": 71.6, "ukmo_seamless": 73.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.1, "jma_seamless": 71.0, "graphcast": 70.3}}
|
| 23340 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.41, "spread": 2.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.1, "icon_seamless": 69.5, "gem_seamless": 69.2, "ukmo_seamless": 65.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 63.9, "jma_seamless": 63.9, "graphcast": 65.0}}
|
| 23341 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 74.56, "spread": 4.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 76.7, "gem_seamless": 74.7, "ukmo_seamless": 78.9, "jma_seamless": 67.0, "graphcast": 72.0}}
|
| 23342 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 67.1, "spread": 1.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.7, "icon_seamless": 67.4, "gem_seamless": 68.3, "ukmo_seamless": 68.3, "jma_seamless": 63.0, "graphcast": 66.9}}
|
| 23343 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 75.84, "spread": 4.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.8, "icon_seamless": 73.8, "gem_seamless": 70.5, "ukmo_seamless": 76.2, "jma_seamless": 71.7, "graphcast": 79.4}}
|
| 23344 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 66.14, "spread": 2.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.3, "icon_seamless": 64.2, "gem_seamless": 66.0, "ukmo_seamless": 69.4, "jma_seamless": 63.3, "graphcast": 67.1}}
|
| 23345 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 80.72, "spread": 7.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.8, "icon_seamless": 82.4, "gem_seamless": 71.5, "ukmo_seamless": 84.6, "jma_seamless": 74.4}}
|
| 23346 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 65.67, "spread": 3.64, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.9, "icon_seamless": 60.9, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 69.3, "jma_seamless": 61.9}}
|
| 23347 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 88.0, "spread": 2.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.3, "icon_seamless": 91.4, "gem_seamless": 88.3, "ukmo_seamless": 90.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 86.2, "jma_seamless": 87.5, "graphcast": 84.3}}
|
| 23348 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 77.05, "spread": 1.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 76.3, "gem_seamless": 72.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.4, "jma_seamless": 77.4, "graphcast": 78.1}}
|
| 23349 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 88.2, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.9, "icon_seamless": 92.0, "gem_seamless": 84.6, "ukmo_seamless": 89.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 86.9, "jma_seamless": 90.2, "graphcast": 87.4}}
|
| 23350 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.22, "spread": 2.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.4, "icon_seamless": 75.7, "gem_seamless": 71.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.1, "jma_seamless": 75.8, "graphcast": 77.2}}
|
| 23351 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 88.7, "spread": 2.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.6, "icon_seamless": 89.1, "gem_seamless": 90.8, "ukmo_seamless": 87.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.8, "jma_seamless": 87.0, "graphcast": 88.4}}
|
| 23352 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.17, "spread": 2.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.8, "icon_seamless": 78.5, "gem_seamless": 75.8, "ukmo_seamless": 81.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.2, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 78.8}}
|
| 23353 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 86.66, "spread": 2.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.2, "icon_seamless": 87.7, "gem_seamless": 90.3, "ukmo_seamless": 83.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 86.5, "jma_seamless": 85.1, "graphcast": 84.9}}
|
| 23354 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.86, "spread": 1.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.5, "icon_seamless": 78.4, "gem_seamless": 78.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.7, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 79.7}}
|
| 23355 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 86.26, "spread": 1.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.2, "icon_seamless": 85.9, "gem_seamless": 87.8, "ukmo_seamless": 83.1, "jma_seamless": 86.0, "graphcast": 86.4}}
|
| 23356 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 78.14, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.4, "icon_seamless": 77.2, "gem_seamless": 81.4, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "jma_seamless": 74.6, "graphcast": 78.5}}
|
| 23357 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 85.86, "spread": 2.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.5, "icon_seamless": 89.2, "gem_seamless": 89.3, "ukmo_seamless": 83.5, "jma_seamless": 84.4, "graphcast": 84.7}}
|
| 23358 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 79.19, "spread": 2.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.2, "icon_seamless": 77.9, "gem_seamless": 82.5, "ukmo_seamless": 77.4, "jma_seamless": 77.1, "graphcast": 78.3}}
|
| 23359 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 87.47, "spread": 2.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.0, "icon_seamless": 86.6, "gem_seamless": 88.8, "ukmo_seamless": 84.2, "jma_seamless": 86.3}}
|
| 23360 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 78.67, "spread": 2.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.2, "icon_seamless": 77.5, "gem_seamless": 81.6, "ukmo_seamless": 78.1, "jma_seamless": 76.4}}
|
| 23361 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 91.04, "spread": 2.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.1, "icon_seamless": 90.4, "gem_seamless": 91.9, "ukmo_seamless": 92.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 93.8, "jma_seamless": 88.8, "graphcast": 85.2}}
|
| 23362 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 57.25, "spread": 2.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.8, "icon_seamless": 56.2, "gem_seamless": 53.5, "ukmo_seamless": 54.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.7, "jma_seamless": 61.5, "graphcast": 58.2}}
|
| 23363 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 86.45, "spread": 1.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.6, "icon_seamless": 86.4, "gem_seamless": 86.2, "ukmo_seamless": 87.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.3, "jma_seamless": 86.8, "graphcast": 83.4}}
|
| 23364 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 66.66, "spread": 4.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.4, "icon_seamless": 63.1, "gem_seamless": 63.1, "ukmo_seamless": 60.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.2, "jma_seamless": 72.0, "graphcast": 65.1}}
|
| 23365 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 72.76, "spread": 3.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 69.4, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 75.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.5, "jma_seamless": 73.6, "graphcast": 66.3}}
|
| 23366 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 56.51, "spread": 3.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 54.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.0, "icon_seamless": 56.5, "gem_seamless": 53.8, "ukmo_seamless": 51.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.0, "jma_seamless": 62.2, "graphcast": 55.3}}
|
| 23367 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.16, "spread": 4.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.1, "icon_seamless": 80.0, "gem_seamless": 82.7, "ukmo_seamless": 86.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.4, "jma_seamless": 77.7, "graphcast": 75.5}}
|
| 23368 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 56.3, "spread": 2.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.7, "icon_seamless": 54.1, "gem_seamless": 53.6, "ukmo_seamless": 56.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.5, "jma_seamless": 59.9, "graphcast": 53.4}}
|
| 23369 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 74.24, "spread": 5.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 73.7, "gem_seamless": 66.0, "ukmo_seamless": 76.5, "jma_seamless": 69.6, "graphcast": 73.5}}
|
| 23370 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 61.11, "spread": 2.64, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.3, "icon_seamless": 61.1, "gem_seamless": 57.1, "ukmo_seamless": 58.8, "jma_seamless": 64.5, "graphcast": 60.3}}
|
| 23371 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 79.8, "spread": 3.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.5, "icon_seamless": 80.1, "gem_seamless": 79.8, "ukmo_seamless": 76.4, "jma_seamless": 74.7, "graphcast": 78.8}}
|
| 23372 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 59.17, "spread": 2.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.9, "icon_seamless": 59.2, "gem_seamless": 53.5, "ukmo_seamless": 59.6, "jma_seamless": 61.9, "graphcast": 59.8}}
|
| 23373 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 72.8, "spread": 2.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.5, "icon_seamless": 71.2, "gem_seamless": 77.8, "ukmo_seamless": 71.4, "jma_seamless": 71.4}}
|
| 23374 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 57.05, "spread": 4.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.9, "icon_seamless": 57.4, "gem_seamless": 49.9, "ukmo_seamless": 56.4, "jma_seamless": 62.5}}
|
| 23375 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 88.72, "spread": 1.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.1, "icon_seamless": 90.5, "gem_seamless": 87.4, "ukmo_seamless": 89.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 91.0, "jma_seamless": 86.0, "graphcast": 86.3}}
|
| 23376 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 71.88, "spread": 1.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.4, "icon_seamless": 72.9, "gem_seamless": 70.5, "ukmo_seamless": 73.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.1, "jma_seamless": 72.4, "graphcast": 72.1}}
|
| 23377 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 92.54, "spread": 2.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.9, "icon_seamless": 94.2, "gem_seamless": 91.9, "ukmo_seamless": 91.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.4, "jma_seamless": 91.4, "graphcast": 88.1}}
|
| 23378 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 71.0, "spread": 2.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.8, "icon_seamless": 70.8, "gem_seamless": 66.7, "ukmo_seamless": 74.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.1, "jma_seamless": 70.9, "graphcast": 69.7}}
|
| 23379 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 90.22, "spread": 3.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 90.1, "icon_seamless": 89.1, "gem_seamless": 92.1, "ukmo_seamless": 86.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 95.4, "jma_seamless": 88.4, "graphcast": 85.7}}
|
| 23380 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 73.25, "spread": 1.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.9, "icon_seamless": 73.4, "gem_seamless": 72.0, "ukmo_seamless": 74.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.3, "jma_seamless": 73.7, "graphcast": 72.4}}
|
| 23381 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 87.64, "spread": 2.64, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.6, "icon_seamless": 86.8, "gem_seamless": 87.8, "ukmo_seamless": 84.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 90.7, "jma_seamless": 86.6, "graphcast": 84.0}}
|
| 23382 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 71.55, "spread": 2.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.3, "icon_seamless": 68.1, "gem_seamless": 69.4, "ukmo_seamless": 70.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.8, "jma_seamless": 70.6, "graphcast": 71.6}}
|
| 23383 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 87.07, "spread": 3.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.2, "icon_seamless": 87.2, "gem_seamless": 84.0, "ukmo_seamless": 84.7, "jma_seamless": 88.1, "graphcast": 83.7}}
|
| 23384 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.26, "spread": 4.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.0, "icon_seamless": 61.7, "gem_seamless": 59.7, "ukmo_seamless": 67.4, "jma_seamless": 65.3, "graphcast": 67.3}}
|
| 23385 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 89.66, "spread": 3.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.2, "icon_seamless": 91.1, "gem_seamless": 86.2, "ukmo_seamless": 86.7, "jma_seamless": 90.1, "graphcast": 86.1}}
|
| 23386 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 66.33, "spread": 5.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.2, "icon_seamless": 62.3, "gem_seamless": 57.7, "ukmo_seamless": 70.2, "jma_seamless": 65.9, "graphcast": 64.9}}
|
| 23387 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 90.87, "spread": 3.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.0, "icon_seamless": 91.7, "gem_seamless": 89.3, "ukmo_seamless": 84.7, "jma_seamless": 92.6}}
|
| 23388 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 68.37, "spread": 5.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 67.6, "gem_seamless": 59.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.1, "jma_seamless": 68.2}}
|
| 23389 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 95.62, "spread": 4.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 101.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.2, "icon_seamless": 97.6, "gem_seamless": 97.5, "ukmo_seamless": 97.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.1, "jma_seamless": 87.9, "graphcast": 91.5}}
|
| 23390 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "lead": 0, "mean": 78.89, "spread": 1.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.1, "icon_seamless": 79.2, "gem_seamless": 77.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.4, "jma_seamless": 80.0, "graphcast": 78.5}}
|
| 23391 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 95.64, "spread": 4.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.7, "icon_seamless": 94.1, "gem_seamless": 97.3, "ukmo_seamless": 98.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.0, "jma_seamless": 87.9, "graphcast": 91.2}}
|
| 23392 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.1, "spread": 1.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.9, "icon_seamless": 78.6, "gem_seamless": 77.3, "ukmo_seamless": 78.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.2, "jma_seamless": 78.4, "graphcast": 78.3}}
|
| 23393 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 97.12, "spread": 4.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 100.2, "icon_seamless": 98.7, "gem_seamless": 97.1, "ukmo_seamless": 98.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.7, "jma_seamless": 89.7, "graphcast": 92.2}}
|
| 23394 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.54, "spread": 2.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.5, "icon_seamless": 77.8, "gem_seamless": 74.9, "ukmo_seamless": 79.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.7, "jma_seamless": 78.7, "graphcast": 77.8}}
|
| 23395 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 95.46, "spread": 4.18, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.6, "icon_seamless": 97.6, "gem_seamless": 95.4, "ukmo_seamless": 94.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.5, "jma_seamless": 89.0, "graphcast": 90.1}}
|
| 23396 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.69, "spread": 1.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.3, "icon_seamless": 78.2, "gem_seamless": 74.7, "ukmo_seamless": 78.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.1, "jma_seamless": 79.0, "graphcast": 77.3}}
|
| 23397 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 91.6, "spread": 3.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.7, "icon_seamless": 91.6, "gem_seamless": 95.7, "ukmo_seamless": 88.1, "jma_seamless": 88.0, "graphcast": 89.5}}
|
| 23398 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 4, "mean": 77.49, "spread": 1.28, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.3, "icon_seamless": 77.9, "gem_seamless": 75.4, "ukmo_seamless": 78.0, "jma_seamless": 78.3, "graphcast": 76.7}}
|
| 23399 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 92.0, "spread": 3.75, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.8, "icon_seamless": 92.4, "gem_seamless": 87.2, "ukmo_seamless": 94.6, "jma_seamless": 90.3, "graphcast": 88.0}}
|
| 23400 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 5, "mean": 75.93, "spread": 0.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.9, "icon_seamless": 76.5, "gem_seamless": 75.3, "ukmo_seamless": 75.2, "jma_seamless": 76.4, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
| 23401 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 93.55, "spread": 2.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.6, "icon_seamless": 95.7, "gem_seamless": 91.5, "ukmo_seamless": 92.0, "jma_seamless": 92.1}}
|
| 23402 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 6, "mean": 73.93, "spread": 3.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.2, "icon_seamless": 74.6, "gem_seamless": 68.3, "ukmo_seamless": 76.8, "jma_seamless": 75.5}}
|
| 23403 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 78.0}
|
| 23404 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 68.0}
|
| 23405 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 85.0}
|
| 23406 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 71.0}
|
| 23407 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 92.0}
|
| 23408 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 76.0}
|
| 23409 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 90.0}
|
| 23410 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 72.0}
|
| 23411 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 101.0}
|
| 23412 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 80.0}
|
| 23413 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 101.0}
|
| 23414 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 75.0}
|
| 23415 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 75.0}
|
| 23416 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 64.0}
|
| 23417 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 100.0}
|
| 23418 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 79.0}
|
| 23419 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 94.0}
|
| 23420 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 55.0}
|
| 23421 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 79.0}
|
| 23422 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-13", "value": 70.0}
|
| 23423 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 98.49, "spread": 1.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.0, "icon_seamless": 100.1, "gem_seamless": 97.5, "ukmo_seamless": 98.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.7, "jma_seamless": 95.0}}
|
| 23424 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 80.57, "spread": 1.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.4, "icon_seamless": 80.1, "gem_seamless": 78.3, "ukmo_seamless": 81.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.4, "jma_seamless": 82.5}}
|
| 23425 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 99.0, "spread": 2.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.7, "icon_seamless": 101.0, "gem_seamless": 97.7, "ukmo_seamless": 99.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.5, "jma_seamless": 95.1}}
|
| 23426 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 81.1, "spread": 1.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.7, "icon_seamless": 80.3, "gem_seamless": 80.7, "ukmo_seamless": 81.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.0, "jma_seamless": 80.6}}
|
| 23427 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 98.3, "spread": 2.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.1, "icon_seamless": 100.7, "gem_seamless": 97.5, "ukmo_seamless": 96.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.0, "jma_seamless": 94.6}}
|
| 23428 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 81.81, "spread": 2.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.2, "icon_seamless": 81.2, "gem_seamless": 79.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 86.6, "jma_seamless": 80.9}}
|
| 23429 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 97.31, "spread": 2.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.8, "icon_seamless": 99.1, "gem_seamless": 95.1, "ukmo_seamless": 94.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.6, "jma_seamless": 93.8}}
|
| 23430 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.84, "spread": 2.94, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.3, "icon_seamless": 82.1, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "ukmo_seamless": 83.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.8, "jma_seamless": 82.8}}
|
| 23431 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 97.27, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.7, "icon_seamless": 99.0, "gem_seamless": 94.9, "ukmo_seamless": 95.8, "jma_seamless": 97.0}}
|
| 23432 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.47, "spread": 4.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.7, "icon_seamless": 80.2, "gem_seamless": 73.8, "ukmo_seamless": 83.5, "jma_seamless": 85.0}}
|
| 23433 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 98.23, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.1, "icon_seamless": 99.7, "gem_seamless": 95.9, "ukmo_seamless": 98.3, "jma_seamless": 96.4}}
|
| 23434 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 79.47, "spread": 1.94, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.7, "icon_seamless": 80.0, "gem_seamless": 76.2, "ukmo_seamless": 81.6, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
|
| 23435 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 97.3, "spread": 3.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.4, "icon_seamless": 99.9, "gem_seamless": 91.6, "ukmo_seamless": 96.7, "jma_seamless": 97.7}}
|
| 23436 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 78.85, "spread": 4.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 76.8, "gem_seamless": 71.9, "ukmo_seamless": 80.0, "jma_seamless": 79.3}}
|
| 23437 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 80.94, "spread": 3.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.0, "icon_seamless": 82.3, "gem_seamless": 81.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.9, "jma_seamless": 78.5}}
|
| 23438 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 67.17, "spread": 2.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.5, "icon_seamless": 65.1, "gem_seamless": 63.0, "ukmo_seamless": 69.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 69.6}}
|
| 23439 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.39, "spread": 4.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.6, "icon_seamless": 82.4, "gem_seamless": 81.0, "ukmo_seamless": 76.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.6, "jma_seamless": 75.0}}
|
| 23440 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 66.03, "spread": 3.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.8, "icon_seamless": 67.4, "gem_seamless": 59.0, "ukmo_seamless": 68.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.2, "jma_seamless": 68.9}}
|
| 23441 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.39, "spread": 3.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.9, "icon_seamless": 80.3, "gem_seamless": 78.9, "ukmo_seamless": 75.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.0, "jma_seamless": 75.2}}
|
| 23442 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 66.16, "spread": 2.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.4, "icon_seamless": 67.8, "gem_seamless": 61.5, "ukmo_seamless": 67.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.5, "jma_seamless": 68.7}}
|
| 23443 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.03, "spread": 3.11, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.9, "icon_seamless": 78.8, "gem_seamless": 76.9, "ukmo_seamless": 72.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.6, "jma_seamless": 75.9}}
|
| 23444 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 65.6, "spread": 4.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.1, "icon_seamless": 65.2, "gem_seamless": 56.1, "ukmo_seamless": 68.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.1, "jma_seamless": 67.8}}
|
| 23445 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 77.98, "spread": 3.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.8, "icon_seamless": 79.2, "gem_seamless": 75.9, "ukmo_seamless": 74.7, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
|
| 23446 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 64.17, "spread": 3.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.0, "icon_seamless": 62.8, "gem_seamless": 58.3, "ukmo_seamless": 65.2, "jma_seamless": 65.9}}
|
| 23447 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 78.72, "spread": 3.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.4, "icon_seamless": 80.9, "gem_seamless": 74.9, "ukmo_seamless": 76.5, "jma_seamless": 78.0}}
|
| 23448 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 65.5, "spread": 2.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.5, "icon_seamless": 63.7, "gem_seamless": 61.1, "ukmo_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 65.7}}
|
| 23449 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 76.92, "spread": 2.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.4, "icon_seamless": 78.6, "gem_seamless": 74.7, "ukmo_seamless": 74.3, "jma_seamless": 76.4}}
|
| 23450 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 66.07, "spread": 3.67, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.1, "icon_seamless": 64.5, "gem_seamless": 60.0, "ukmo_seamless": 68.4, "jma_seamless": 66.6}}
|
| 23451 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 74.91, "spread": 1.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.0, "icon_seamless": 75.8, "gem_seamless": 75.5, "ukmo_seamless": 75.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.0, "jma_seamless": 75.2}}
|
| 23452 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 63.51, "spread": 2.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.8, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 62.8, "ukmo_seamless": 68.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.7, "jma_seamless": 63.5}}
|
| 23453 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 71.67, "spread": 1.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.1, "icon_seamless": 71.9, "gem_seamless": 74.3, "ukmo_seamless": 71.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.1, "jma_seamless": 72.0}}
|
| 23454 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 57.1, "spread": 2.28, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 54.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.0, "icon_seamless": 59.5, "gem_seamless": 55.3, "ukmo_seamless": 60.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.6, "jma_seamless": 56.3}}
|
| 23455 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.67, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.0, "icon_seamless": 78.9, "gem_seamless": 77.2, "ukmo_seamless": 79.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.1, "jma_seamless": 80.3}}
|
| 23456 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 60.34, "spread": 2.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.3, "icon_seamless": 62.4, "gem_seamless": 58.9, "ukmo_seamless": 64.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.6, "jma_seamless": 61.5}}
|
| 23457 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.31, "spread": 2.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.6, "icon_seamless": 82.8, "gem_seamless": 79.7, "ukmo_seamless": 80.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.3, "jma_seamless": 85.6}}
|
| 23458 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 68.47, "spread": 1.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.0, "icon_seamless": 69.6, "gem_seamless": 68.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.7, "jma_seamless": 66.2}}
|
| 23459 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.78, "spread": 2.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.0, "icon_seamless": 80.1, "gem_seamless": 84.6, "ukmo_seamless": 82.1, "jma_seamless": 80.9}}
|
| 23460 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 69.5, "spread": 2.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.2, "icon_seamless": 65.4, "gem_seamless": 71.7, "ukmo_seamless": 72.0, "jma_seamless": 70.3}}
|
| 23461 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 72.93, "spread": 1.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.9, "icon_seamless": 71.1, "gem_seamless": 73.5, "ukmo_seamless": 74.3, "jma_seamless": 74.0}}
|
| 23462 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 62.32, "spread": 3.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.4, "icon_seamless": 58.4, "gem_seamless": 66.3, "ukmo_seamless": 66.7, "jma_seamless": 61.1}}
|
| 23463 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 77.42, "spread": 4.28, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.2, "icon_seamless": 74.3, "gem_seamless": 83.1, "ukmo_seamless": 76.0, "jma_seamless": 72.1}}
|
| 23464 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 65.78, "spread": 2.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.7, "icon_seamless": 65.1, "gem_seamless": 67.4, "ukmo_seamless": 67.7, "jma_seamless": 66.1}}
|
| 23465 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 76.6, "spread": 1.37, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.7, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 75.9, "ukmo_seamless": 79.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.2, "jma_seamless": 77.4}}
|
| 23466 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 65.41, "spread": 3.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.4, "icon_seamless": 64.8, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 70.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.9, "jma_seamless": 68.1}}
|
| 23467 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.03, "spread": 1.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.5, "icon_seamless": 77.8, "gem_seamless": 77.9, "ukmo_seamless": 75.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.8, "jma_seamless": 75.8}}
|
| 23468 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 58.24, "spread": 2.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 54.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.7, "icon_seamless": 57.8, "gem_seamless": 59.7, "ukmo_seamless": 62.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.6, "jma_seamless": 59.1}}
|
| 23469 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 81.1, "spread": 1.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.6, "icon_seamless": 81.6, "gem_seamless": 82.3, "ukmo_seamless": 81.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.9, "jma_seamless": 80.9}}
|
| 23470 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 61.03, "spread": 2.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.2, "icon_seamless": 61.1, "gem_seamless": 62.3, "ukmo_seamless": 65.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.2, "jma_seamless": 62.0}}
|
| 23471 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 84.97, "spread": 1.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.0, "icon_seamless": 86.4, "gem_seamless": 85.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.7, "jma_seamless": 84.7}}
|
| 23472 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.47, "spread": 2.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.8, "icon_seamless": 68.1, "gem_seamless": 63.7, "ukmo_seamless": 69.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.9, "jma_seamless": 66.5}}
|
| 23473 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 84.47, "spread": 1.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.5, "icon_seamless": 82.6, "gem_seamless": 86.2, "ukmo_seamless": 85.2, "jma_seamless": 82.8}}
|
| 23474 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 70.48, "spread": 1.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.9, "icon_seamless": 69.0, "gem_seamless": 70.4, "ukmo_seamless": 71.6, "jma_seamless": 72.1}}
|
| 23475 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.43, "spread": 2.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.1, "icon_seamless": 78.8, "gem_seamless": 75.0, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "jma_seamless": 75.0}}
|
| 23476 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 66.22, "spread": 4.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.1, "icon_seamless": 60.0, "gem_seamless": 68.9, "ukmo_seamless": 70.4, "jma_seamless": 68.6}}
|
| 23477 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 83.3, "spread": 5.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.7, "icon_seamless": 83.8, "gem_seamless": 87.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.9, "jma_seamless": 76.5}}
|
| 23478 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 68.12, "spread": 2.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.7, "icon_seamless": 65.6, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "jma_seamless": 67.6}}
|
| 23479 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 96.76, "spread": 4.57, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.7, "icon_seamless": 97.6, "gem_seamless": 98.6, "ukmo_seamless": 98.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 102.0, "jma_seamless": 87.6}}
|
| 23480 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 79.57, "spread": 0.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.8, "icon_seamless": 78.7, "gem_seamless": 79.8, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.3, "jma_seamless": 78.9}}
|
| 23481 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 97.8, "spread": 4.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.7, "icon_seamless": 99.6, "gem_seamless": 98.4, "ukmo_seamless": 99.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.8, "jma_seamless": 88.2}}
|
| 23482 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.7, "spread": 1.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 77.3, "gem_seamless": 78.2, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.9, "jma_seamless": 77.6}}
|
| 23483 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 97.04, "spread": 4.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 101.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.9, "icon_seamless": 97.9, "gem_seamless": 96.7, "ukmo_seamless": 96.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.8, "jma_seamless": 89.0}}
|
| 23484 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.3, "spread": 2.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 76.0, "gem_seamless": 74.9, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.9, "jma_seamless": 76.5}}
|
| 23485 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 92.34, "spread": 3.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.7, "icon_seamless": 87.2, "gem_seamless": 92.9, "ukmo_seamless": 92.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.5, "jma_seamless": 87.2}}
|
| 23486 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.81, "spread": 2.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.6, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 75.3, "ukmo_seamless": 78.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.1, "jma_seamless": 77.8}}
|
| 23487 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 95.17, "spread": 2.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.0, "icon_seamless": 93.6, "gem_seamless": 93.1, "ukmo_seamless": 95.4, "jma_seamless": 92.9}}
|
| 23488 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 74.22, "spread": 1.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.2, "icon_seamless": 71.3, "gem_seamless": 75.6, "ukmo_seamless": 74.9, "jma_seamless": 73.1}}
|
| 23489 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 95.75, "spread": 3.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.2, "icon_seamless": 96.6, "gem_seamless": 93.4, "ukmo_seamless": 96.2, "jma_seamless": 91.0}}
|
| 23490 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 71.73, "spread": 2.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.6, "icon_seamless": 69.9, "gem_seamless": 70.2, "ukmo_seamless": 73.1, "jma_seamless": 71.0}}
|
| 23491 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 95.63, "spread": 2.57, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.3, "icon_seamless": 96.8, "gem_seamless": 95.1, "ukmo_seamless": 94.5, "jma_seamless": 91.7}}
|
| 23492 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 73.0, "spread": 3.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.2, "icon_seamless": 70.2, "gem_seamless": 69.0, "ukmo_seamless": 74.8, "jma_seamless": 76.2}}
|
| 23493 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 72.26, "spread": 1.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.6, "icon_seamless": 71.5, "gem_seamless": 73.8, "ukmo_seamless": 72.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.2, "jma_seamless": 74.1}}
|
| 23494 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 52.76, "spread": 1.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 51.1, "icon_seamless": 52.9, "gem_seamless": 50.9, "ukmo_seamless": 54.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 53.8, "jma_seamless": 53.8}}
|
| 23495 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 85.87, "spread": 2.12, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.4, "icon_seamless": 86.5, "gem_seamless": 88.3, "ukmo_seamless": 88.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.1, "jma_seamless": 83.2}}
|
| 23496 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 67.31, "spread": 2.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.1, "icon_seamless": 65.1, "gem_seamless": 67.1, "ukmo_seamless": 68.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.1, "jma_seamless": 72.5}}
|
| 23497 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 73.29, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.1, "icon_seamless": 76.8, "gem_seamless": 74.2, "ukmo_seamless": 74.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.3, "jma_seamless": 71.8}}
|
| 23498 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 65.97, "spread": 1.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 68.6, "gem_seamless": 65.5, "ukmo_seamless": 67.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.9, "jma_seamless": 65.5}}
|
| 23499 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.8, "spread": 2.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.3, "icon_seamless": 74.1, "gem_seamless": 78.2, "ukmo_seamless": 76.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.5, "jma_seamless": 82.4}}
|
| 23500 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.39, "spread": 1.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.1, "icon_seamless": 66.7, "gem_seamless": 65.3, "ukmo_seamless": 69.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.8, "jma_seamless": 65.9}}
|
| 23501 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 72.95, "spread": 1.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.6, "icon_seamless": 74.5, "gem_seamless": 71.6, "ukmo_seamless": 74.0, "jma_seamless": 70.0}}
|
| 23502 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 65.67, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.3, "icon_seamless": 63.5, "gem_seamless": 67.7, "ukmo_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 62.1}}
|
| 23503 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 81.13, "spread": 8.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.2, "icon_seamless": 82.0, "gem_seamless": 81.7, "ukmo_seamless": 82.5, "jma_seamless": 64.1}}
|
| 23504 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 64.62, "spread": 4.56, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.8, "icon_seamless": 57.7, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 64.8, "jma_seamless": 62.1}}
|
| 23505 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 75.68, "spread": 7.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.9, "icon_seamless": 88.2, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.4, "jma_seamless": 67.7}}
|
| 23506 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 65.07, "spread": 3.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.0, "icon_seamless": 71.5, "gem_seamless": 64.0, "ukmo_seamless": 66.3, "jma_seamless": 62.2}}
|
| 23507 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 89.71, "spread": 1.18, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 88.3, "icon_seamless": 91.3, "gem_seamless": 88.9, "ukmo_seamless": 90.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.5, "jma_seamless": 90.7}}
|
| 23508 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 76.6, "spread": 1.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.2, "icon_seamless": 75.8, "gem_seamless": 74.4, "ukmo_seamless": 77.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.5, "jma_seamless": 76.1}}
|
| 23509 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 88.27, "spread": 1.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.7, "icon_seamless": 90.7, "gem_seamless": 86.5, "ukmo_seamless": 89.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 89.1, "jma_seamless": 86.0}}
|
| 23510 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.14, "spread": 2.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.9, "icon_seamless": 78.4, "gem_seamless": 76.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.2, "jma_seamless": 78.0}}
|
| 23511 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 88.37, "spread": 1.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.4, "icon_seamless": 87.5, "gem_seamless": 90.5, "ukmo_seamless": 88.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.7, "jma_seamless": 85.9}}
|
| 23512 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.83, "spread": 2.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.6, "icon_seamless": 78.6, "gem_seamless": 77.6, "ukmo_seamless": 80.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.8, "jma_seamless": 77.5}}
|
| 23513 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 86.94, "spread": 3.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.1, "icon_seamless": 89.0, "gem_seamless": 90.4, "ukmo_seamless": 83.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 87.6, "jma_seamless": 85.6}}
|
| 23514 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.16, "spread": 2.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.8, "icon_seamless": 78.0, "gem_seamless": 76.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.6, "jma_seamless": 77.5}}
|
| 23515 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 86.45, "spread": 2.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.5, "icon_seamless": 89.5, "gem_seamless": 88.4, "ukmo_seamless": 84.3, "jma_seamless": 84.1}}
|
| 23516 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 78.08, "spread": 3.28, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.5, "icon_seamless": 75.6, "gem_seamless": 81.1, "ukmo_seamless": 77.7, "jma_seamless": 75.5}}
|
| 23517 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 87.48, "spread": 3.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.8, "icon_seamless": 90.6, "gem_seamless": 89.6, "ukmo_seamless": 87.9, "jma_seamless": 83.2}}
|
| 23518 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.32, "spread": 3.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.8, "icon_seamless": 74.7, "gem_seamless": 81.2, "ukmo_seamless": 75.5, "jma_seamless": 75.0}}
|
| 23519 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 87.9, "spread": 2.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.0, "icon_seamless": 88.8, "gem_seamless": 90.3, "ukmo_seamless": 89.3, "jma_seamless": 85.6}}
|
| 23520 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 77.75, "spread": 3.18, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.6, "icon_seamless": 79.8, "gem_seamless": 78.2, "ukmo_seamless": 78.0, "jma_seamless": 73.7}}
|
| 23521 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 86.89, "spread": 0.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.8, "icon_seamless": 86.3, "gem_seamless": 86.0, "ukmo_seamless": 87.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 88.1, "jma_seamless": 86.8}}
|
| 23522 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 67.19, "spread": 4.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.0, "icon_seamless": 66.1, "gem_seamless": 64.1, "ukmo_seamless": 61.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.2, "jma_seamless": 73.9}}
|
| 23523 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 74.69, "spread": 3.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.9, "icon_seamless": 69.5, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.5, "jma_seamless": 76.8}}
|
| 23524 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 56.9, "spread": 5.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.0, "icon_seamless": 56.5, "gem_seamless": 52.0, "ukmo_seamless": 49.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.3, "jma_seamless": 61.5}}
|
| 23525 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 83.53, "spread": 1.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.2, "icon_seamless": 80.0, "gem_seamless": 83.7, "ukmo_seamless": 83.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 85.4, "jma_seamless": 82.4}}
|
| 23526 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 56.46, "spread": 4.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.2, "icon_seamless": 53.3, "gem_seamless": 50.2, "ukmo_seamless": 55.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.1, "jma_seamless": 62.2}}
|
| 23527 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.69, "spread": 4.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.1, "icon_seamless": 76.5, "gem_seamless": 83.1, "ukmo_seamless": 70.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.3, "jma_seamless": 76.2}}
|
| 23528 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 62.5, "spread": 1.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.2, "icon_seamless": 62.6, "gem_seamless": 60.8, "ukmo_seamless": 61.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.4, "jma_seamless": 62.2}}
|
| 23529 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 81.8, "spread": 2.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.2, "icon_seamless": 79.8, "gem_seamless": 82.4, "ukmo_seamless": 81.7, "jma_seamless": 79.4}}
|
| 23530 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 59.52, "spread": 2.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.3, "icon_seamless": 61.6, "gem_seamless": 55.9, "ukmo_seamless": 58.6, "jma_seamless": 61.0}}
|
| 23531 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 77.97, "spread": 3.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.2, "icon_seamless": 80.3, "gem_seamless": 72.5, "ukmo_seamless": 80.7, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
|
| 23532 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 57.87, "spread": 3.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.7, "icon_seamless": 61.1, "gem_seamless": 51.1, "ukmo_seamless": 59.6, "jma_seamless": 61.2}}
|
| 23533 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 71.87, "spread": 3.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.8, "icon_seamless": 69.0, "gem_seamless": 75.9, "ukmo_seamless": 75.6, "jma_seamless": 68.4}}
|
| 23534 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 54.57, "spread": 3.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.3, "icon_seamless": 56.2, "gem_seamless": 47.4, "ukmo_seamless": 56.2, "jma_seamless": 57.2}}
|
| 23535 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 92.59, "spread": 1.68, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.3, "icon_seamless": 93.2, "gem_seamless": 91.1, "ukmo_seamless": 90.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 95.4, "jma_seamless": 91.2}}
|
| 23536 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 69.67, "spread": 1.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.9, "icon_seamless": 68.9, "gem_seamless": 67.5, "ukmo_seamless": 72.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.3, "jma_seamless": 70.7}}
|
| 23537 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 90.51, "spread": 3.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 90.2, "icon_seamless": 90.6, "gem_seamless": 91.9, "ukmo_seamless": 85.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 95.6, "jma_seamless": 87.8}}
|
| 23538 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 73.61, "spread": 0.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.2, "icon_seamless": 72.2, "gem_seamless": 73.4, "ukmo_seamless": 73.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.1, "jma_seamless": 74.4}}
|
| 23539 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 88.7, "spread": 3.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.3, "icon_seamless": 86.6, "gem_seamless": 89.3, "ukmo_seamless": 84.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 92.7, "jma_seamless": 85.6}}
|
| 23540 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 71.4, "spread": 2.67, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.4, "icon_seamless": 67.9, "gem_seamless": 72.5, "ukmo_seamless": 70.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.5, "jma_seamless": 70.3}}
|
| 23541 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 89.9, "spread": 3.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.0, "icon_seamless": 88.0, "gem_seamless": 90.1, "ukmo_seamless": 86.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 93.8, "jma_seamless": 86.0}}
|
| 23542 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 68.44, "spread": 3.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.6, "icon_seamless": 64.1, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 69.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.8, "jma_seamless": 64.4}}
|
| 23543 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 91.85, "spread": 1.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.5, "icon_seamless": 93.2, "gem_seamless": 90.3, "ukmo_seamless": 88.9, "jma_seamless": 92.6}}
|
| 23544 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 69.93, "spread": 4.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.5, "icon_seamless": 68.5, "gem_seamless": 63.1, "ukmo_seamless": 73.4, "jma_seamless": 69.3}}
|
| 23545 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 90.2, "spread": 4.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 92.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.3, "icon_seamless": 89.6, "gem_seamless": 90.3, "ukmo_seamless": 81.9, "jma_seamless": 93.8}}
|
| 23546 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 71.28, "spread": 3.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.5, "icon_seamless": 72.5, "gem_seamless": 64.0, "ukmo_seamless": 74.4, "jma_seamless": 72.9}}
|
| 23547 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 87.4, "spread": 2.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.9, "icon_seamless": 87.8, "gem_seamless": 91.3, "ukmo_seamless": 82.3, "jma_seamless": 88.5}}
|
| 23548 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 71.62, "spread": 2.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.0, "icon_seamless": 68.8, "gem_seamless": 69.2, "ukmo_seamless": 72.4, "jma_seamless": 74.4}}
|
| 23549 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 96.51, "spread": 3.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 100.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.8, "icon_seamless": 96.1, "gem_seamless": 96.3, "ukmo_seamless": 97.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.9, "jma_seamless": 89.2}}
|
| 23550 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-14", "lead": 0, "mean": 79.19, "spread": 1.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.2, "icon_seamless": 79.2, "gem_seamless": 77.6, "ukmo_seamless": 79.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 79.4}}
|
| 23551 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 97.76, "spread": 3.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 99.7, "icon_seamless": 98.7, "gem_seamless": 96.2, "ukmo_seamless": 99.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 101.2, "jma_seamless": 90.1}}
|
| 23552 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.1, "spread": 1.67, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.0, "icon_seamless": 77.4, "gem_seamless": 78.4, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 79.8, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
|
| 23553 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 96.03, "spread": 3.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.1, "icon_seamless": 97.0, "gem_seamless": 95.4, "ukmo_seamless": 94.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.5, "jma_seamless": 88.5}}
|
| 23554 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-16", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.0, "spread": 2.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.0, "icon_seamless": 77.2, "gem_seamless": 76.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.6, "jma_seamless": 78.8}}
|
| 23555 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 93.39, "spread": 3.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.1, "icon_seamless": 88.6, "gem_seamless": 93.6, "ukmo_seamless": 93.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.4, "jma_seamless": 88.1}}
|
| 23556 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-17", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.66, "spread": 1.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.6, "icon_seamless": 76.8, "gem_seamless": 74.7, "ukmo_seamless": 78.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.9, "jma_seamless": 78.8}}
|
| 23557 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 94.05, "spread": 2.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.6, "icon_seamless": 93.8, "gem_seamless": 90.8, "ukmo_seamless": 94.7, "jma_seamless": 91.9}}
|
| 23558 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-18", "lead": 4, "mean": 75.9, "spread": 0.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.0, "icon_seamless": 75.8, "gem_seamless": 76.6, "ukmo_seamless": 75.4, "jma_seamless": 74.3}}
|
| 23559 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 93.78, "spread": 2.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.4, "icon_seamless": 94.8, "gem_seamless": 91.4, "ukmo_seamless": 94.5, "jma_seamless": 90.0}}
|
| 23560 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-19", "lead": 5, "mean": 73.75, "spread": 2.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.7, "icon_seamless": 75.1, "gem_seamless": 70.1, "ukmo_seamless": 73.8, "jma_seamless": 72.5}}
|
| 23561 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 93.88, "spread": 2.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 98.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.3, "icon_seamless": 94.8, "gem_seamless": 92.8, "ukmo_seamless": 92.6, "jma_seamless": 89.8}}
|
| 23562 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "lead": 6, "mean": 74.37, "spread": 3.66, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.0, "icon_seamless": 72.3, "gem_seamless": 68.1, "ukmo_seamless": 76.4, "jma_seamless": 77.9}}
|
replay/lineage.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -2153,6 +2153,265 @@
|
|
| 2153 |
],
|
| 2154 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 2155 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2156 |
}
|
| 2157 |
]
|
| 2158 |
}
|
|
|
|
| 2153 |
],
|
| 2154 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 2155 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 2156 |
+
},
|
| 2157 |
+
{
|
| 2158 |
+
"ts": "2026-09-13T11:36:45.722367+00:00",
|
| 2159 |
+
"operator": "decision",
|
| 2160 |
+
"rows": 2294,
|
| 2161 |
+
"rollback": "",
|
| 2162 |
+
"candidates": [
|
| 2163 |
+
{
|
| 2164 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2165 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 2166 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.3,
|
| 2167 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 2168 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2169 |
+
},
|
| 2170 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 2171 |
+
"rationale": "Edge threshold already at upper bound; shift weight to model to capture persistent weather-market mispricings.",
|
| 2172 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2173 |
+
"n": 283,
|
| 2174 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3462897526501767,
|
| 2175 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.046925795053003566,
|
| 2176 |
+
"total_pnl": -13.280000000000008,
|
| 2177 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.23317714493163538,
|
| 2178 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5423469387755101,
|
| 2179 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3590810810810812,
|
| 2180 |
+
"fees": 5.279999999999973
|
| 2181 |
+
},
|
| 2182 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2183 |
+
"n": 47,
|
| 2184 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3829787234042553,
|
| 2185 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.021063829787234072,
|
| 2186 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.9900000000000013,
|
| 2187 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.21429102863828575,
|
| 2188 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5383333333333334,
|
| 2189 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.36827586206896556,
|
| 2190 |
+
"fees": 0.8900000000000005
|
| 2191 |
+
},
|
| 2192 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-8.21 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 2193 |
+
},
|
| 2194 |
+
{
|
| 2195 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2196 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 2197 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.4,
|
| 2198 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 2199 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2200 |
+
},
|
| 2201 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 2202 |
+
"rationale": "Reduce market anchor to surface model edges, lower min_edge to increase trade frequency and offset 24% win rate.",
|
| 2203 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2204 |
+
"n": 387,
|
| 2205 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3643410852713178,
|
| 2206 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03790697674418607,
|
| 2207 |
+
"total_pnl": -14.670000000000009,
|
| 2208 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.17325134347981508,
|
| 2209 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5134042553191487,
|
| 2210 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3539024390243903,
|
| 2211 |
+
"fees": 7.079999999999933
|
| 2212 |
+
},
|
| 2213 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2214 |
+
"n": 59,
|
| 2215 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3728813559322034,
|
| 2216 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.038644067796610206,
|
| 2217 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.280000000000002,
|
| 2218 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1657800167433818,
|
| 2219 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5331818181818182,
|
| 2220 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3786486486486487,
|
| 2221 |
+
"fees": 1.1100000000000005
|
| 2222 |
+
},
|
| 2223 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-9.60 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 2224 |
+
},
|
| 2225 |
+
{
|
| 2226 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2227 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 2228 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.35,
|
| 2229 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 2230 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2231 |
+
},
|
| 2232 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 2233 |
+
"rationale": "Aggressive model weighting with broader entry to test if volume compensates for low win rate without overexposing to model noise.",
|
| 2234 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2235 |
+
"n": 567,
|
| 2236 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3439153439153439,
|
| 2237 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.0560670194003527,
|
| 2238 |
+
"total_pnl": -31.78999999999998,
|
| 2239 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.16005907640751504,
|
| 2240 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4879999999999997,
|
| 2241 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3412634408602149,
|
| 2242 |
+
"fees": 9.98999999999987
|
| 2243 |
+
},
|
| 2244 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2245 |
+
"n": 90,
|
| 2246 |
+
"win_rate": 0.34444444444444444,
|
| 2247 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03722222222222224,
|
| 2248 |
+
"total_pnl": -3.3500000000000014,
|
| 2249 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.15184978005032018,
|
| 2250 |
+
"avg_win": 0.533225806451613,
|
| 2251 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3369491525423729,
|
| 2252 |
+
"fees": 1.560000000000001
|
| 2253 |
+
},
|
| 2254 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-26.72 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 2255 |
+
},
|
| 2256 |
+
{
|
| 2257 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2258 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.1183,
|
| 2259 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6102,
|
| 2260 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 2261 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2262 |
+
},
|
| 2263 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 2264 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 2265 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2266 |
+
"n": 116,
|
| 2267 |
+
"win_rate": 0.25862068965517243,
|
| 2268 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07681034482758622,
|
| 2269 |
+
"total_pnl": -8.910000000000002,
|
| 2270 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1512227813647388,
|
| 2271 |
+
"avg_win": 0.6256666666666667,
|
| 2272 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3218604651162791,
|
| 2273 |
+
"fees": 2.160000000000001
|
| 2274 |
+
},
|
| 2275 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2276 |
+
"n": 15,
|
| 2277 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
|
| 2278 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.004666666666666678,
|
| 2279 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.07000000000000017,
|
| 2280 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1346511404860982,
|
| 2281 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5800000000000001,
|
| 2282 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.29700000000000004,
|
| 2283 |
+
"fees": 0.27999999999999997
|
| 2284 |
+
},
|
| 2285 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-3.84 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 2286 |
+
},
|
| 2287 |
+
{
|
| 2288 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2289 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.0905,
|
| 2290 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.4906,
|
| 2291 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 2292 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2293 |
+
},
|
| 2294 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 2295 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 2296 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2297 |
+
"n": 340,
|
| 2298 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35294117647058826,
|
| 2299 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.04552941176470592,
|
| 2300 |
+
"total_pnl": -15.480000000000015,
|
| 2301 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.150715935697433,
|
| 2302 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5275,
|
| 2303 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3580909090909092,
|
| 2304 |
+
"fees": 6.2799999999999505
|
| 2305 |
+
},
|
| 2306 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2307 |
+
"n": 55,
|
| 2308 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4,
|
| 2309 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.01200000000000001,
|
| 2310 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.6600000000000006,
|
| 2311 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13962568326752187,
|
| 2312 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5331818181818182,
|
| 2313 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3754545454545456,
|
| 2314 |
+
"fees": 1.0400000000000005
|
| 2315 |
+
},
|
| 2316 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-10.41 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 2317 |
+
}
|
| 2318 |
+
],
|
| 2319 |
+
"promoted": null,
|
| 2320 |
+
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 2321 |
+
},
|
| 2322 |
+
{
|
| 2323 |
+
"ts": "2026-09-13T11:47:37.899782+00:00",
|
| 2324 |
+
"operator": "forecast",
|
| 2325 |
+
"rows": 2294,
|
| 2326 |
+
"rollback": "",
|
| 2327 |
+
"candidates": [
|
| 2328 |
+
{
|
| 2329 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2330 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 2331 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
|
| 2332 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.08,
|
| 2333 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2334 |
+
},
|
| 2335 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 2336 |
+
"rationale": "Win rate 24% indicates over-deviation on narrow bins; reducing delta to 0.08 cuts false positives.",
|
| 2337 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2338 |
+
"n": 2,
|
| 2339 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 2340 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.185,
|
| 2341 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.37,
|
| 2342 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.21252226714010236,
|
| 2343 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 2344 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.185,
|
| 2345 |
+
"fees": 0.03,
|
| 2346 |
+
"n_pairs": 120,
|
| 2347 |
+
"brier": 0.17111020890578268
|
| 2348 |
+
},
|
| 2349 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2350 |
+
"n": 0,
|
| 2351 |
+
"n_pairs": 60,
|
| 2352 |
+
"brier": 0.106519328146047
|
| 2353 |
+
},
|
| 2354 |
+
"verdict": "held-in n=2 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
|
| 2355 |
+
},
|
| 2356 |
+
{
|
| 2357 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2358 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 2359 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
|
| 2360 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.1,
|
| 2361 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2362 |
+
},
|
| 2363 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 2364 |
+
"rationale": "Brier 0.417 reflects poor calibration; confidence threshold forces delta=0 on weak signal, aligning outputs with baseline.",
|
| 2365 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2366 |
+
"n": 2,
|
| 2367 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 2368 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.185,
|
| 2369 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.37,
|
| 2370 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.21252226714010236,
|
| 2371 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 2372 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.185,
|
| 2373 |
+
"fees": 0.03,
|
| 2374 |
+
"n_pairs": 120,
|
| 2375 |
+
"brier": 0.17111020890578268
|
| 2376 |
+
},
|
| 2377 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2378 |
+
"n": 0,
|
| 2379 |
+
"n_pairs": 60,
|
| 2380 |
+
"brier": 0.106519328146047
|
| 2381 |
+
},
|
| 2382 |
+
"verdict": "held-in n=2 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
|
| 2383 |
+
},
|
| 2384 |
+
{
|
| 2385 |
+
"params": {
|
| 2386 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 2387 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6,
|
| 2388 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.1631,
|
| 2389 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 2390 |
+
},
|
| 2391 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 2392 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 2393 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 2394 |
+
"n": 2,
|
| 2395 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 2396 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.185,
|
| 2397 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.37,
|
| 2398 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.21252226714010236,
|
| 2399 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 2400 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.185,
|
| 2401 |
+
"fees": 0.03,
|
| 2402 |
+
"n_pairs": 120,
|
| 2403 |
+
"brier": 0.17111020890578268
|
| 2404 |
+
},
|
| 2405 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 2406 |
+
"n": 0,
|
| 2407 |
+
"n_pairs": 60,
|
| 2408 |
+
"brier": 0.106519328146047
|
| 2409 |
+
},
|
| 2410 |
+
"verdict": "held-in n=2 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
|
| 2411 |
+
}
|
| 2412 |
+
],
|
| 2413 |
+
"promoted": null,
|
| 2414 |
+
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 2415 |
}
|
| 2416 |
]
|
| 2417 |
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,772 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"rows": 3451,
|
| 3 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 4 |
+
"window": [
|
| 5 |
+
"2026-07-09",
|
| 6 |
+
"2026-09-12"
|
| 7 |
+
],
|
| 8 |
+
"stations": [
|
| 9 |
+
"atl",
|
| 10 |
+
"aus",
|
| 11 |
+
"chi",
|
| 12 |
+
"dal",
|
| 13 |
+
"den",
|
| 14 |
+
"lax",
|
| 15 |
+
"mia",
|
| 16 |
+
"nyc",
|
| 17 |
+
"phl",
|
| 18 |
+
"sat"
|
| 19 |
+
],
|
| 20 |
+
"params": {
|
| 21 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 22 |
+
"market_prior_weight": 0.5
|
| 23 |
+
},
|
| 24 |
+
"ablation": [
|
| 25 |
+
{
|
| 26 |
+
"rule": "naked model vs market",
|
| 27 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 28 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 29 |
+
"bias": false,
|
| 30 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 31 |
+
"n": 1547,
|
| 32 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37944408532643825,
|
| 33 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03819650937298002,
|
| 34 |
+
"total_pnl": -59.09000000000009,
|
| 35 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.23182560310173642,
|
| 36 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4372061328790462,
|
| 37 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3288854166666665,
|
| 38 |
+
"fees": 26.32999999999986,
|
| 39 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 40 |
+
"max_drawdown": 61.83000000000001,
|
| 41 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.8953030303030306,
|
| 42 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.7285780903540966,
|
| 43 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.5179419057195322,
|
| 44 |
+
"t_stat": -4.207779933435818,
|
| 45 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 46 |
+
-0.05582438408085913,
|
| 47 |
+
-0.019226770630279413
|
| 48 |
+
]
|
| 49 |
+
},
|
| 50 |
+
{
|
| 51 |
+
"rule": "+ learned station bias",
|
| 52 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 53 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 54 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 55 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 56 |
+
"n": 1452,
|
| 57 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36707988980716255,
|
| 58 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036790633608815494,
|
| 59 |
+
"total_pnl": -53.4200000000001,
|
| 60 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.20631175219266265,
|
| 61 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4582551594746718,
|
| 62 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3239064200217627,
|
| 63 |
+
"fees": 24.63999999999986,
|
| 64 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 65 |
+
"max_drawdown": 55.84000000000002,
|
| 66 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.8093939393939397,
|
| 67 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.8199356529519883,
|
| 68 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.44473766865387754,
|
| 69 |
+
"t_stat": -3.613065900132364,
|
| 70 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 71 |
+
-0.056416666666666705,
|
| 72 |
+
-0.01726388888888891
|
| 73 |
+
]
|
| 74 |
+
},
|
| 75 |
+
{
|
| 76 |
+
"rule": "+ market-prior blend (production)",
|
| 77 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 78 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 79 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 80 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 81 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 82 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383,
|
| 83 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 84 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 85 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13575167152978274,
|
| 86 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5160905349794238,
|
| 87 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35776412776412786,
|
| 88 |
+
"fees": 11.889999999999832,
|
| 89 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 90 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.710000000000008,
|
| 91 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30606060606060614,
|
| 92 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4534456448124373,
|
| 93 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21057588713618686,
|
| 94 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7107265941846697,
|
| 95 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 96 |
+
-0.06594155844155845,
|
| 97 |
+
0.004012441679626726
|
| 98 |
+
]
|
| 99 |
+
},
|
| 100 |
+
{
|
| 101 |
+
"rule": "control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count",
|
| 102 |
+
"min_edge": 0.19,
|
| 103 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 104 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 105 |
+
"note": "min_edge searched to n<=650",
|
| 106 |
+
"n": 644,
|
| 107 |
+
"win_rate": 0.38354037267080743,
|
| 108 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03163043478260868,
|
| 109 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.36999999999999,
|
| 110 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.3017789522680617,
|
| 111 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5125506072874493,
|
| 112 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.37020151133501283,
|
| 113 |
+
"fees": 11.939999999999833,
|
| 114 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.210000000000015,
|
| 116 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30863636363636393,
|
| 117 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4373285972607297,
|
| 118 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21472916090625702,
|
| 119 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7444679497976867,
|
| 120 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 121 |
+
-0.06723916532905297,
|
| 122 |
+
0.004208955223880576
|
| 123 |
+
]
|
| 124 |
+
}
|
| 125 |
+
],
|
| 126 |
+
"grid": [
|
| 127 |
+
{
|
| 128 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 129 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 130 |
+
"n": 2119,
|
| 131 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03504011326097225,
|
| 132 |
+
"total_pnl": -74.2500000000002,
|
| 133 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37234544596507785
|
| 134 |
+
},
|
| 135 |
+
{
|
| 136 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 137 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 138 |
+
"n": 1906,
|
| 139 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036951731374606514,
|
| 140 |
+
"total_pnl": -70.43000000000002,
|
| 141 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36778593913955926
|
| 142 |
+
},
|
| 143 |
+
{
|
| 144 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 145 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 146 |
+
"n": 1684,
|
| 147 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03782066508313547,
|
| 148 |
+
"total_pnl": -63.690000000000126,
|
| 149 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3681710213776722
|
| 150 |
+
},
|
| 151 |
+
{
|
| 152 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 153 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 154 |
+
"n": 1452,
|
| 155 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036790633608815494,
|
| 156 |
+
"total_pnl": -53.4200000000001,
|
| 157 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36707988980716255
|
| 158 |
+
},
|
| 159 |
+
{
|
| 160 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 161 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 162 |
+
"n": 1280,
|
| 163 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03960937500000002,
|
| 164 |
+
"total_pnl": -50.70000000000003,
|
| 165 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36640625
|
| 166 |
+
},
|
| 167 |
+
{
|
| 168 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 169 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 170 |
+
"n": 1113,
|
| 171 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.037026055705301,
|
| 172 |
+
"total_pnl": -41.210000000000015,
|
| 173 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3692722371967655
|
| 174 |
+
},
|
| 175 |
+
{
|
| 176 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 177 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 178 |
+
"n": 888,
|
| 179 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03445945945945942,
|
| 180 |
+
"total_pnl": -30.599999999999962,
|
| 181 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3761261261261261
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
{
|
| 184 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 185 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 186 |
+
"n": 587,
|
| 187 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.028807495741056195,
|
| 188 |
+
"total_pnl": -16.909999999999986,
|
| 189 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3850085178875639
|
| 190 |
+
},
|
| 191 |
+
{
|
| 192 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 193 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 194 |
+
"n": 1946,
|
| 195 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03478417266187053,
|
| 196 |
+
"total_pnl": -67.69000000000005,
|
| 197 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36793422404933196
|
| 198 |
+
},
|
| 199 |
+
{
|
| 200 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 201 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 202 |
+
"n": 1644,
|
| 203 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03609489051094898,
|
| 204 |
+
"total_pnl": -59.34000000000013,
|
| 205 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36678832116788324
|
| 206 |
+
},
|
| 207 |
+
{
|
| 208 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 209 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 210 |
+
"n": 1363,
|
| 211 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03805575935436543,
|
| 212 |
+
"total_pnl": -51.870000000000076,
|
| 213 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36390315480557595
|
| 214 |
+
},
|
| 215 |
+
{
|
| 216 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 217 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 218 |
+
"n": 1144,
|
| 219 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036756993006993026,
|
| 220 |
+
"total_pnl": -42.050000000000026,
|
| 221 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36363636363636365
|
| 222 |
+
},
|
| 223 |
+
{
|
| 224 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 225 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 226 |
+
"n": 930,
|
| 227 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03979569892473121,
|
| 228 |
+
"total_pnl": -37.010000000000026,
|
| 229 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3688172043010753
|
| 230 |
+
},
|
| 231 |
+
{
|
| 232 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 233 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 234 |
+
"n": 766,
|
| 235 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.039229765013054786,
|
| 236 |
+
"total_pnl": -30.04999999999997,
|
| 237 |
+
"win_rate": 0.370757180156658
|
| 238 |
+
},
|
| 239 |
+
{
|
| 240 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 241 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 242 |
+
"n": 545,
|
| 243 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.026733944954128428,
|
| 244 |
+
"total_pnl": -14.569999999999993,
|
| 245 |
+
"win_rate": 0.381651376146789
|
| 246 |
+
},
|
| 247 |
+
{
|
| 248 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 249 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 250 |
+
"n": 322,
|
| 251 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.049999999999999996,
|
| 252 |
+
"total_pnl": -16.099999999999998,
|
| 253 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32298136645962733
|
| 254 |
+
},
|
| 255 |
+
{
|
| 256 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 257 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 258 |
+
"n": 1561,
|
| 259 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03606662395900068,
|
| 260 |
+
"total_pnl": -56.30000000000007,
|
| 261 |
+
"win_rate": 0.356181934657271
|
| 262 |
+
},
|
| 263 |
+
{
|
| 264 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 265 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 266 |
+
"n": 1201,
|
| 267 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.039700249791840184,
|
| 268 |
+
"total_pnl": -47.68000000000006,
|
| 269 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35387177352206495
|
| 270 |
+
},
|
| 271 |
+
{
|
| 272 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 273 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 274 |
+
"n": 892,
|
| 275 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03517937219730945,
|
| 276 |
+
"total_pnl": -31.380000000000027,
|
| 277 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3665919282511211
|
| 278 |
+
},
|
| 279 |
+
{
|
| 280 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 281 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 282 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 283 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 284 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 285 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383
|
| 286 |
+
},
|
| 287 |
+
{
|
| 288 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 289 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 290 |
+
"n": 465,
|
| 291 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03572043010752684,
|
| 292 |
+
"total_pnl": -16.60999999999998,
|
| 293 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35913978494623655
|
| 294 |
+
},
|
| 295 |
+
{
|
| 296 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 297 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 298 |
+
"n": 340,
|
| 299 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05361764705882351,
|
| 300 |
+
"total_pnl": -18.229999999999993,
|
| 301 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3205882352941177
|
| 302 |
+
},
|
| 303 |
+
{
|
| 304 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 305 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 306 |
+
"n": 208,
|
| 307 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.0648557692307692,
|
| 308 |
+
"total_pnl": -13.489999999999995,
|
| 309 |
+
"win_rate": 0.28365384615384615
|
| 310 |
+
},
|
| 311 |
+
{
|
| 312 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 313 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 314 |
+
"n": 62,
|
| 315 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.10983870967741934,
|
| 316 |
+
"total_pnl": -6.809999999999999,
|
| 317 |
+
"win_rate": 0.16129032258064516
|
| 318 |
+
},
|
| 319 |
+
{
|
| 320 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 321 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 322 |
+
"n": 803,
|
| 323 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03179327521793273,
|
| 324 |
+
"total_pnl": -25.529999999999983,
|
| 325 |
+
"win_rate": 0.34869240348692404
|
| 326 |
+
},
|
| 327 |
+
{
|
| 328 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 329 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 330 |
+
"n": 407,
|
| 331 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.040663390663390656,
|
| 332 |
+
"total_pnl": -16.549999999999997,
|
| 333 |
+
"win_rate": 0.33906633906633904
|
| 334 |
+
},
|
| 335 |
+
{
|
| 336 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 337 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 338 |
+
"n": 217,
|
| 339 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.059861751152073726,
|
| 340 |
+
"total_pnl": -12.989999999999998,
|
| 341 |
+
"win_rate": 0.28110599078341014
|
| 342 |
+
},
|
| 343 |
+
{
|
| 344 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 345 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 346 |
+
"n": 84,
|
| 347 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.13940476190476195,
|
| 348 |
+
"total_pnl": -11.710000000000003,
|
| 349 |
+
"win_rate": 0.14285714285714285
|
| 350 |
+
},
|
| 351 |
+
{
|
| 352 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 353 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 354 |
+
"n": 32,
|
| 355 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06968750000000001,
|
| 356 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.2300000000000004,
|
| 357 |
+
"win_rate": 0.15625
|
| 358 |
+
},
|
| 359 |
+
{
|
| 360 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 361 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 362 |
+
"n": 18,
|
| 363 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07666666666666666,
|
| 364 |
+
"total_pnl": -1.38,
|
| 365 |
+
"win_rate": 0.1111111111111111
|
| 366 |
+
},
|
| 367 |
+
{
|
| 368 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 369 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 370 |
+
"n": 6,
|
| 371 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.034999999999999996,
|
| 372 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.20999999999999996,
|
| 373 |
+
"win_rate": 0.16666666666666666
|
| 374 |
+
},
|
| 375 |
+
{
|
| 376 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 377 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 378 |
+
"n": 0,
|
| 379 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": null,
|
| 380 |
+
"total_pnl": null,
|
| 381 |
+
"win_rate": null
|
| 382 |
+
}
|
| 383 |
+
],
|
| 384 |
+
"by_station": {
|
| 385 |
+
"atl": {
|
| 386 |
+
"n": 55,
|
| 387 |
+
"win_rate": 0.34545454545454546,
|
| 388 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.13490909090909098,
|
| 389 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.4200000000000035,
|
| 390 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11471779189410324,
|
| 391 |
+
"avg_win": 0.46157894736842114,
|
| 392 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.44972222222222213,
|
| 393 |
+
"fees": 1.0500000000000005
|
| 394 |
+
},
|
| 395 |
+
"aus": {
|
| 396 |
+
"n": 108,
|
| 397 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3055555555555556,
|
| 398 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06611111111111112,
|
| 399 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.1400000000000015,
|
| 400 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12506285026596992,
|
| 401 |
+
"avg_win": 0.49696969696969695,
|
| 402 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3138666666666666,
|
| 403 |
+
"fees": 1.8800000000000012
|
| 404 |
+
},
|
| 405 |
+
"chi": {
|
| 406 |
+
"n": 61,
|
| 407 |
+
"win_rate": 0.45901639344262296,
|
| 408 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.07081967213114755,
|
| 409 |
+
"total_pnl": 4.32,
|
| 410 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12490570195591762,
|
| 411 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5271428571428571,
|
| 412 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3163636363636363,
|
| 413 |
+
"fees": 1.0900000000000005
|
| 414 |
+
},
|
| 415 |
+
"dal": {
|
| 416 |
+
"n": 67,
|
| 417 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3582089552238806,
|
| 418 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036417910447761215,
|
| 419 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.4400000000000013,
|
| 420 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.14828231213452195,
|
| 421 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5412499999999999,
|
| 422 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35883720930232565,
|
| 423 |
+
"fees": 1.2800000000000007
|
| 424 |
+
},
|
| 425 |
+
"den": {
|
| 426 |
+
"n": 77,
|
| 427 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4025974025974026,
|
| 428 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07675324675324678,
|
| 429 |
+
"total_pnl": -5.910000000000002,
|
| 430 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13160121383703874,
|
| 431 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4870967741935483,
|
| 432 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.45673913043478265,
|
| 433 |
+
"fees": 1.4700000000000009
|
| 434 |
+
},
|
| 435 |
+
"lax": {
|
| 436 |
+
"n": 78,
|
| 437 |
+
"win_rate": 0.34615384615384615,
|
| 438 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05717948717948719,
|
| 439 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.460000000000001,
|
| 440 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.19114093730560272,
|
| 441 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5096296296296297,
|
| 442 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35725490196078435,
|
| 443 |
+
"fees": 1.4400000000000008
|
| 444 |
+
},
|
| 445 |
+
"mia": {
|
| 446 |
+
"n": 57,
|
| 447 |
+
"win_rate": 0.40350877192982454,
|
| 448 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.04789473684210526,
|
| 449 |
+
"total_pnl": 2.73,
|
| 450 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12196613240087031,
|
| 451 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5634782608695652,
|
| 452 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.30088235294117655,
|
| 453 |
+
"fees": 1.0200000000000005
|
| 454 |
+
},
|
| 455 |
+
"nyc": {
|
| 456 |
+
"n": 65,
|
| 457 |
+
"win_rate": 0.38461538461538464,
|
| 458 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.018615384615384614,
|
| 459 |
+
"total_pnl": 1.21,
|
| 460 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1386978750811795,
|
| 461 |
+
"avg_win": 0.564,
|
| 462 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3222499999999999,
|
| 463 |
+
"fees": 1.1500000000000006
|
| 464 |
+
},
|
| 465 |
+
"phl": {
|
| 466 |
+
"n": 52,
|
| 467 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36538461538461536,
|
| 468 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.038846153846153836,
|
| 469 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.0199999999999996,
|
| 470 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11615163290982423,
|
| 471 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4884210526315788,
|
| 472 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3424242424242424,
|
| 473 |
+
"fees": 0.9300000000000006
|
| 474 |
+
},
|
| 475 |
+
"sat": {
|
| 476 |
+
"n": 30,
|
| 477 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4666666666666667,
|
| 478 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.030999999999999982,
|
| 479 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.9299999999999995,
|
| 480 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12728514884694414,
|
| 481 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5207142857142857,
|
| 482 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.39749999999999996,
|
| 483 |
+
"fees": 0.5800000000000002
|
| 484 |
+
}
|
| 485 |
+
},
|
| 486 |
+
"by_week": {
|
| 487 |
+
"2026-W28": {
|
| 488 |
+
"n": 39,
|
| 489 |
+
"win_rate": 0.41025641025641024,
|
| 490 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.0035897435897435646,
|
| 491 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.13999999999999901,
|
| 492 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13990723496346977,
|
| 493 |
+
"avg_win": 0.51375,
|
| 494 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35130434782608694,
|
| 495 |
+
"fees": 0.7100000000000003
|
| 496 |
+
},
|
| 497 |
+
"2026-W29": {
|
| 498 |
+
"n": 62,
|
| 499 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3387096774193548,
|
| 500 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06564516129032259,
|
| 501 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.070000000000001,
|
| 502 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13582239514967348,
|
| 503 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5019047619047617,
|
| 504 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35634146341463413,
|
| 505 |
+
"fees": 1.1300000000000008
|
| 506 |
+
},
|
| 507 |
+
"2026-W30": {
|
| 508 |
+
"n": 57,
|
| 509 |
+
"win_rate": 0.47368421052631576,
|
| 510 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.07438596491228071,
|
| 511 |
+
"total_pnl": 4.24,
|
| 512 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12606198235331323,
|
| 513 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5492592592592592,
|
| 514 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3529999999999999,
|
| 515 |
+
"fees": 1.0500000000000007
|
| 516 |
+
},
|
| 517 |
+
"2026-W31": {
|
| 518 |
+
"n": 81,
|
| 519 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4074074074074074,
|
| 520 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03629629629629632,
|
| 521 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.9400000000000017,
|
| 522 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13337919111293645,
|
| 523 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4793939393939394,
|
| 524 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3908333333333333,
|
| 525 |
+
"fees": 1.520000000000001
|
| 526 |
+
},
|
| 527 |
+
"2026-W32": {
|
| 528 |
+
"n": 71,
|
| 529 |
+
"win_rate": 0.352112676056338,
|
| 530 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06239436619718313,
|
| 531 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.430000000000002,
|
| 532 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1415441717855739,
|
| 533 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5008,
|
| 534 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.36847826086956526,
|
| 535 |
+
"fees": 1.3100000000000007
|
| 536 |
+
},
|
| 537 |
+
"2026-W33": {
|
| 538 |
+
"n": 69,
|
| 539 |
+
"win_rate": 0.30434782608695654,
|
| 540 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.08884057971014495,
|
| 541 |
+
"total_pnl": -6.130000000000001,
|
| 542 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1394905043837934,
|
| 543 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5047619047619049,
|
| 544 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3485416666666666,
|
| 545 |
+
"fees": 1.2800000000000007
|
| 546 |
+
},
|
| 547 |
+
"2026-W34": {
|
| 548 |
+
"n": 70,
|
| 549 |
+
"win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
|
| 550 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.05242857142857142,
|
| 551 |
+
"total_pnl": 3.6699999999999995,
|
| 552 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13471800521779553,
|
| 553 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5459375,
|
| 554 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3631578947368422,
|
| 555 |
+
"fees": 1.2700000000000007
|
| 556 |
+
},
|
| 557 |
+
"2026-W35": {
|
| 558 |
+
"n": 74,
|
| 559 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
|
| 560 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
|
| 561 |
+
"total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
|
| 562 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
|
| 563 |
+
"avg_win": 0.51375,
|
| 564 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3214,
|
| 565 |
+
"fees": 1.290000000000001
|
| 566 |
+
},
|
| 567 |
+
"2026-W36": {
|
| 568 |
+
"n": 64,
|
| 569 |
+
"win_rate": 0.28125,
|
| 570 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
|
| 571 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.63,
|
| 572 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
|
| 573 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
|
| 574 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
|
| 575 |
+
"fees": 1.1700000000000006
|
| 576 |
+
},
|
| 577 |
+
"2026-W37": {
|
| 578 |
+
"n": 63,
|
| 579 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4126984126984127,
|
| 580 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.01095238095238094,
|
| 581 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.6899999999999992,
|
| 582 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12831081561063043,
|
| 583 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5230769230769231,
|
| 584 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.348918918918919,
|
| 585 |
+
"fees": 1.1600000000000006
|
| 586 |
+
}
|
| 587 |
+
},
|
| 588 |
+
"by_kind": {
|
| 589 |
+
"high": {
|
| 590 |
+
"n": 576,
|
| 591 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3767361111111111,
|
| 592 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03473958333333329,
|
| 593 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.009999999999973,
|
| 594 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13842740545012025,
|
| 595 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5164976958525342,
|
| 596 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3679387186629529,
|
| 597 |
+
"fees": 10.669999999999858
|
| 598 |
+
},
|
| 599 |
+
"low": {
|
| 600 |
+
"n": 74,
|
| 601 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35135135135135137,
|
| 602 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.0025675675675675817,
|
| 603 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.19000000000000106,
|
| 604 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11492433723094043,
|
| 605 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5126923076923077,
|
| 606 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.2816666666666667,
|
| 607 |
+
"fees": 1.2200000000000006
|
| 608 |
+
}
|
| 609 |
+
},
|
| 610 |
+
"dataset": {
|
| 611 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl",
|
| 612 |
+
"digest": "8acad5bfa63effa8"
|
| 613 |
+
},
|
| 614 |
+
"generated": "2026-09-14T10:48:18",
|
| 615 |
+
"sources": {
|
| 616 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 617 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl",
|
| 618 |
+
"digest": "0b9e1f20fe57fd5f",
|
| 619 |
+
"rows": 3451,
|
| 620 |
+
"paired_rows": 3451,
|
| 621 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 622 |
+
"n": 677,
|
| 623 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3249630723781389,
|
| 624 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05125553914327921,
|
| 625 |
+
"total_pnl": -34.700000000000024,
|
| 626 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13124626478211432,
|
| 627 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5183636363636362,
|
| 628 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3254704595185997,
|
| 629 |
+
"fees": 11.91999999999983,
|
| 630 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 631 |
+
"max_drawdown": 40.540000000000006,
|
| 632 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.5257575757575758,
|
| 633 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.3609363977746638,
|
| 634 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.38632046039570156,
|
| 635 |
+
"t_stat": -3.1384822567513253,
|
| 636 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 637 |
+
-0.08527439024390243,
|
| 638 |
+
-0.01926512968299713
|
| 639 |
+
]
|
| 640 |
+
},
|
| 641 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 642 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 643 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383,
|
| 644 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 645 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 646 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13575167152978274,
|
| 647 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5160905349794238,
|
| 648 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35776412776412786,
|
| 649 |
+
"fees": 11.889999999999832,
|
| 650 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 651 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.710000000000008,
|
| 652 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30606060606060614,
|
| 653 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4534456448124373,
|
| 654 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21057588713618686,
|
| 655 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7107265941846697,
|
| 656 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 657 |
+
-0.06594155844155845,
|
| 658 |
+
0.004012441679626726
|
| 659 |
+
]
|
| 660 |
+
},
|
| 661 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1634366880628488,
|
| 662 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1630747671658056
|
| 663 |
+
},
|
| 664 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 665 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl",
|
| 666 |
+
"digest": "9ac0ff6811e67649",
|
| 667 |
+
"rows": 3451,
|
| 668 |
+
"paired_rows": 3451,
|
| 669 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 670 |
+
"n": 719,
|
| 671 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36995827538247567,
|
| 672 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.033671766342141876,
|
| 673 |
+
"total_pnl": -24.210000000000008,
|
| 674 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13597020288610878,
|
| 675 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4940225563909772,
|
| 676 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.343532008830022,
|
| 677 |
+
"fees": 12.909999999999808,
|
| 678 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 679 |
+
"max_drawdown": 25.32000000000002,
|
| 680 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3668181818181821,
|
| 681 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4772481267451412,
|
| 682 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.24831182736132626,
|
| 683 |
+
"t_stat": -2.0172948218087488,
|
| 684 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 685 |
+
-0.06574074074074077,
|
| 686 |
+
-0.0008659217877095117
|
| 687 |
+
]
|
| 688 |
+
},
|
| 689 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 690 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 691 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383,
|
| 692 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 693 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 694 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13575167152978274,
|
| 695 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5160905349794238,
|
| 696 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35776412776412786,
|
| 697 |
+
"fees": 11.889999999999832,
|
| 698 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 699 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.710000000000008,
|
| 700 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30606060606060614,
|
| 701 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4534456448124373,
|
| 702 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21057588713618686,
|
| 703 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7107265941846697,
|
| 704 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 705 |
+
-0.06594155844155845,
|
| 706 |
+
0.004012441679626726
|
| 707 |
+
]
|
| 708 |
+
},
|
| 709 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16519013755553072,
|
| 710 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1630747671658056
|
| 711 |
+
}
|
| 712 |
+
},
|
| 713 |
+
"simulation": [
|
| 714 |
+
{
|
| 715 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 716 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 717 |
+
"final": 887.61,
|
| 718 |
+
"return": -0.1124,
|
| 719 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2277,
|
| 720 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 721 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 722 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 723 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 724 |
+
},
|
| 725 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 726 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 241.32
|
| 727 |
+
},
|
| 728 |
+
{
|
| 729 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 730 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 731 |
+
"final": 736.77,
|
| 732 |
+
"return": -0.2632,
|
| 733 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7051,
|
| 734 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 735 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 736 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 737 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 738 |
+
},
|
| 739 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 740 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1121.28
|
| 741 |
+
},
|
| 742 |
+
{
|
| 743 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 744 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 745 |
+
"final": 554.58,
|
| 746 |
+
"return": -0.4454,
|
| 747 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7719,
|
| 748 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 749 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 750 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 751 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 752 |
+
},
|
| 753 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 754 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1019.32
|
| 755 |
+
},
|
| 756 |
+
{
|
| 757 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 758 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 759 |
+
"final": 1120.25,
|
| 760 |
+
"return": 0.1202,
|
| 761 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1517,
|
| 762 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 763 |
+
"entered": 11,
|
| 764 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 765 |
+
"edge": 67,
|
| 766 |
+
"kill-switch": 572
|
| 767 |
+
},
|
| 768 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-17",
|
| 769 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 200.33
|
| 770 |
+
}
|
| 771 |
+
]
|
| 772 |
+
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,223 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-09', '2026-09-12'] · 3451 rows · 66 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
## E1 ablation
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
|
| 6 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 7 |
+
| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1547 | 38% | -0.038 | [-0.056, -0.019] | -59.09 | 61.83 | -4.21 |
|
| 8 |
+
| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1452 | 37% | -0.037 | [-0.056, -0.017] | -53.42 | 55.84 | -3.61 |
|
| 9 |
+
| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 650 | 37% | -0.031 | [-0.066, +0.004] | -20.20 | 23.71 | -1.71 |
|
| 10 |
+
| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 644 | 38% | -0.032 | [-0.067, +0.004] | -20.37 | 23.21 | -1.74 |
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
|
| 15 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 16 |
+
| 0.00 | -0.035 (2119) | -0.037 (1906) | -0.038 (1684) | -0.037 (1452) | -0.040 (1280) | -0.037 (1113) | -0.034 (888) | -0.029 (587) |
|
| 17 |
+
| 0.25 | -0.035 (1946) | -0.036 (1644) | -0.038 (1363) | -0.037 (1144) | -0.040 (930) | -0.039 (766) | -0.027 (545) | -0.050 (322) |
|
| 18 |
+
| 0.50 | -0.036 (1561) | -0.040 (1201) | -0.035 (892) | -0.031 (650) | -0.036 (465) | -0.054 (340) | -0.065 (208) | -0.110 (62) |
|
| 19 |
+
| 0.75 | -0.032 (803) | -0.041 (407) | -0.060 (217) | -0.139 (84) | -0.070 (32) | -0.077 (18) | +0.035 (6) | — |
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
## E6 by station
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 24 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 25 |
+
| atl | 55 | 35% | -0.135 | -7.42 |
|
| 26 |
+
| aus | 108 | 31% | -0.066 | -7.14 |
|
| 27 |
+
| chi | 61 | 46% | +0.071 | +4.32 |
|
| 28 |
+
| dal | 67 | 36% | -0.036 | -2.44 |
|
| 29 |
+
| den | 77 | 40% | -0.077 | -5.91 |
|
| 30 |
+
| lax | 78 | 35% | -0.057 | -4.46 |
|
| 31 |
+
| mia | 57 | 40% | +0.048 | +2.73 |
|
| 32 |
+
| nyc | 65 | 38% | +0.019 | +1.21 |
|
| 33 |
+
| phl | 52 | 37% | -0.039 | -2.02 |
|
| 34 |
+
| sat | 30 | 47% | +0.031 | +0.93 |
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## E6 by week
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 39 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 40 |
+
| 2026-W28 | 39 | 41% | +0.004 | +0.14 |
|
| 41 |
+
| 2026-W29 | 62 | 34% | -0.066 | -4.07 |
|
| 42 |
+
| 2026-W30 | 57 | 47% | +0.074 | +4.24 |
|
| 43 |
+
| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
|
| 44 |
+
| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
|
| 45 |
+
| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
|
| 46 |
+
| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
|
| 47 |
+
| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
|
| 48 |
+
| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
|
| 49 |
+
| 2026-W37 | 63 | 41% | +0.011 | +0.69 |
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
## E6 by kind
|
| 52 |
+
|
| 53 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 54 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 55 |
+
| high | 576 | 38% | -0.035 | -20.01 |
|
| 56 |
+
| low | 74 | 35% | -0.003 | -0.19 |
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
## sources
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
```json
|
| 61 |
+
{
|
| 62 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 63 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl",
|
| 64 |
+
"digest": "0b9e1f20fe57fd5f",
|
| 65 |
+
"rows": 3451,
|
| 66 |
+
"paired_rows": 3451,
|
| 67 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 68 |
+
"n": 677,
|
| 69 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3249630723781389,
|
| 70 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05125553914327921,
|
| 71 |
+
"total_pnl": -34.700000000000024,
|
| 72 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13124626478211432,
|
| 73 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5183636363636362,
|
| 74 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3254704595185997,
|
| 75 |
+
"fees": 11.91999999999983,
|
| 76 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 77 |
+
"max_drawdown": 40.540000000000006,
|
| 78 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.5257575757575758,
|
| 79 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.3609363977746638,
|
| 80 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.38632046039570156,
|
| 81 |
+
"t_stat": -3.1384822567513253,
|
| 82 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 83 |
+
-0.08527439024390243,
|
| 84 |
+
-0.01926512968299713
|
| 85 |
+
]
|
| 86 |
+
},
|
| 87 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 88 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 89 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383,
|
| 90 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 91 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 92 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13575167152978274,
|
| 93 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5160905349794238,
|
| 94 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35776412776412786,
|
| 95 |
+
"fees": 11.889999999999832,
|
| 96 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 97 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.710000000000008,
|
| 98 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30606060606060614,
|
| 99 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4534456448124373,
|
| 100 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21057588713618686,
|
| 101 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7107265941846697,
|
| 102 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 103 |
+
-0.06594155844155845,
|
| 104 |
+
0.004012441679626726
|
| 105 |
+
]
|
| 106 |
+
},
|
| 107 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1634366880628488,
|
| 108 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1630747671658056
|
| 109 |
+
},
|
| 110 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 111 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl",
|
| 112 |
+
"digest": "9ac0ff6811e67649",
|
| 113 |
+
"rows": 3451,
|
| 114 |
+
"paired_rows": 3451,
|
| 115 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 116 |
+
"n": 719,
|
| 117 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36995827538247567,
|
| 118 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.033671766342141876,
|
| 119 |
+
"total_pnl": -24.210000000000008,
|
| 120 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13597020288610878,
|
| 121 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4940225563909772,
|
| 122 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.343532008830022,
|
| 123 |
+
"fees": 12.909999999999808,
|
| 124 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 125 |
+
"max_drawdown": 25.32000000000002,
|
| 126 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3668181818181821,
|
| 127 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4772481267451412,
|
| 128 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.24831182736132626,
|
| 129 |
+
"t_stat": -2.0172948218087488,
|
| 130 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 131 |
+
-0.06574074074074077,
|
| 132 |
+
-0.0008659217877095117
|
| 133 |
+
]
|
| 134 |
+
},
|
| 135 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 136 |
+
"n": 650,
|
| 137 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37384615384615383,
|
| 138 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.031076923076923054,
|
| 139 |
+
"total_pnl": -20.199999999999985,
|
| 140 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13575167152978274,
|
| 141 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5160905349794238,
|
| 142 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35776412776412786,
|
| 143 |
+
"fees": 11.889999999999832,
|
| 144 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 145 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.710000000000008,
|
| 146 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.30606060606060614,
|
| 147 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4534456448124373,
|
| 148 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21057588713618686,
|
| 149 |
+
"t_stat": -1.7107265941846697,
|
| 150 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 151 |
+
-0.06594155844155845,
|
| 152 |
+
0.004012441679626726
|
| 153 |
+
]
|
| 154 |
+
},
|
| 155 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16519013755553072,
|
| 156 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1630747671658056
|
| 157 |
+
}
|
| 158 |
+
}
|
| 159 |
+
```
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
## simulation
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
```json
|
| 164 |
+
[
|
| 165 |
+
{
|
| 166 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 167 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 168 |
+
"final": 887.61,
|
| 169 |
+
"return": -0.1124,
|
| 170 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2277,
|
| 171 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 172 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 173 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 174 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 175 |
+
},
|
| 176 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 177 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 241.32
|
| 178 |
+
},
|
| 179 |
+
{
|
| 180 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 181 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 182 |
+
"final": 736.77,
|
| 183 |
+
"return": -0.2632,
|
| 184 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7051,
|
| 185 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 186 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 187 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 188 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 189 |
+
},
|
| 190 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 191 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1121.28
|
| 192 |
+
},
|
| 193 |
+
{
|
| 194 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 195 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 196 |
+
"final": 554.58,
|
| 197 |
+
"return": -0.4454,
|
| 198 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7719,
|
| 199 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 200 |
+
"entered": 89,
|
| 201 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 202 |
+
"edge": 561
|
| 203 |
+
},
|
| 204 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 205 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1019.32
|
| 206 |
+
},
|
| 207 |
+
{
|
| 208 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 209 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 210 |
+
"final": 1120.25,
|
| 211 |
+
"return": 0.1202,
|
| 212 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1517,
|
| 213 |
+
"days": 66,
|
| 214 |
+
"entered": 11,
|
| 215 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 216 |
+
"edge": 67,
|
| 217 |
+
"kill-switch": 572
|
| 218 |
+
},
|
| 219 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-17",
|
| 220 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 200.33
|
| 221 |
+
}
|
| 222 |
+
]
|
| 223 |
+
```
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,772 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"rows": 3504,
|
| 3 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 4 |
+
"window": [
|
| 5 |
+
"2026-07-09",
|
| 6 |
+
"2026-09-13"
|
| 7 |
+
],
|
| 8 |
+
"stations": [
|
| 9 |
+
"atl",
|
| 10 |
+
"aus",
|
| 11 |
+
"chi",
|
| 12 |
+
"dal",
|
| 13 |
+
"den",
|
| 14 |
+
"lax",
|
| 15 |
+
"mia",
|
| 16 |
+
"nyc",
|
| 17 |
+
"phl",
|
| 18 |
+
"sat"
|
| 19 |
+
],
|
| 20 |
+
"params": {
|
| 21 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 22 |
+
"market_prior_weight": 0.5
|
| 23 |
+
},
|
| 24 |
+
"ablation": [
|
| 25 |
+
{
|
| 26 |
+
"rule": "naked model vs market",
|
| 27 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 28 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 29 |
+
"bias": false,
|
| 30 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 31 |
+
"n": 1566,
|
| 32 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3780332056194125,
|
| 33 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03954022988505752,
|
| 34 |
+
"total_pnl": -61.92000000000009,
|
| 35 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.23253473483768491,
|
| 36 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4366216216216218,
|
| 37 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3289527720739219,
|
| 38 |
+
"fees": 26.65999999999986,
|
| 39 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 40 |
+
"max_drawdown": 62.04000000000001,
|
| 41 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.9241791044776122,
|
| 42 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.7316397459806099,
|
| 43 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.5337017163199029,
|
| 44 |
+
"t_stat": -4.368536823032201,
|
| 45 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 46 |
+
-0.05749354005167961,
|
| 47 |
+
-0.020593869731800787
|
| 48 |
+
]
|
| 49 |
+
},
|
| 50 |
+
{
|
| 51 |
+
"rule": "+ learned station bias",
|
| 52 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 53 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 54 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 55 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 56 |
+
"n": 1471,
|
| 57 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3650577838205302,
|
| 58 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.038857919782460976,
|
| 59 |
+
"total_pnl": -57.160000000000096,
|
| 60 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.20683999923998594,
|
| 61 |
+
"avg_win": 0.45793296089385493,
|
| 62 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3244860813704496,
|
| 63 |
+
"fees": 24.96999999999986,
|
| 64 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 65 |
+
"max_drawdown": 59.58000000000001,
|
| 66 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.8531343283582092,
|
| 67 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.8412406957984377,
|
| 68 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.46334752990469563,
|
| 69 |
+
"t_stat": -3.7926629882456537,
|
| 70 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 71 |
+
-0.05805327868852458,
|
| 72 |
+
-0.0183895388850654
|
| 73 |
+
]
|
| 74 |
+
},
|
| 75 |
+
{
|
| 76 |
+
"rule": "+ market-prior blend (production)",
|
| 77 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 78 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 79 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 80 |
+
"note": "",
|
| 81 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 82 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495,
|
| 83 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 84 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 85 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13614871278923818,
|
| 86 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5163524590163934,
|
| 87 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579759036144579,
|
| 88 |
+
"fees": 12.059999999999828,
|
| 89 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 90 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.300000000000008,
|
| 91 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33686567164179115,
|
| 92 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.464266502646771,
|
| 93 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23005762341273348,
|
| 94 |
+
"t_stat": -1.8831028054918062,
|
| 95 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 96 |
+
-0.06948881789137377,
|
| 97 |
+
-0.00028315946348734584
|
| 98 |
+
]
|
| 99 |
+
},
|
| 100 |
+
{
|
| 101 |
+
"rule": "control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count",
|
| 102 |
+
"min_edge": 0.19,
|
| 103 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 104 |
+
"bias": true,
|
| 105 |
+
"note": "min_edge searched to n<=659",
|
| 106 |
+
"n": 654,
|
| 107 |
+
"win_rate": 0.38073394495412843,
|
| 108 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03431192660550457,
|
| 109 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.43999999999999,
|
| 110 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.30247261606723924,
|
| 111 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5119678714859437,
|
| 112 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.370172839506173,
|
| 113 |
+
"fees": 12.129999999999828,
|
| 114 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 115 |
+
"max_drawdown": 23.62000000000002,
|
| 116 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33492537313432863,
|
| 117 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.442538138915307,
|
| 118 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23217782885530522,
|
| 119 |
+
"t_stat": -1.9004574349881,
|
| 120 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 121 |
+
-0.06895136778115502,
|
| 122 |
+
0.001462639109697916
|
| 123 |
+
]
|
| 124 |
+
}
|
| 125 |
+
],
|
| 126 |
+
"grid": [
|
| 127 |
+
{
|
| 128 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 129 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 130 |
+
"n": 2143,
|
| 131 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03691553896406916,
|
| 132 |
+
"total_pnl": -79.11000000000021,
|
| 133 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37050863275781615
|
| 134 |
+
},
|
| 135 |
+
{
|
| 136 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 137 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 138 |
+
"n": 1928,
|
| 139 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03864626556016599,
|
| 140 |
+
"total_pnl": -74.51000000000003,
|
| 141 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36618257261410786
|
| 142 |
+
},
|
| 143 |
+
{
|
| 144 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 145 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 146 |
+
"n": 1704,
|
| 147 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.039501173708920256,
|
| 148 |
+
"total_pnl": -67.31000000000012,
|
| 149 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36678403755868544
|
| 150 |
+
},
|
| 151 |
+
{
|
| 152 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 153 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 154 |
+
"n": 1471,
|
| 155 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.038857919782460976,
|
| 156 |
+
"total_pnl": -57.160000000000096,
|
| 157 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3650577838205302
|
| 158 |
+
},
|
| 159 |
+
{
|
| 160 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 161 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 162 |
+
"n": 1297,
|
| 163 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.041804163454124924,
|
| 164 |
+
"total_pnl": -54.22000000000003,
|
| 165 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3646877409406322
|
| 166 |
+
},
|
| 167 |
+
{
|
| 168 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 169 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 170 |
+
"n": 1128,
|
| 171 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03845744680851065,
|
| 172 |
+
"total_pnl": -43.38000000000001,
|
| 173 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3679078014184397
|
| 174 |
+
},
|
| 175 |
+
{
|
| 176 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 177 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 178 |
+
"n": 902,
|
| 179 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036651884700665154,
|
| 180 |
+
"total_pnl": -33.05999999999997,
|
| 181 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3736141906873614
|
| 182 |
+
},
|
| 183 |
+
{
|
| 184 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 185 |
+
"weight": 0.0,
|
| 186 |
+
"n": 596,
|
| 187 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03234899328859058,
|
| 188 |
+
"total_pnl": -19.279999999999987,
|
| 189 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3808724832214765
|
| 190 |
+
},
|
| 191 |
+
{
|
| 192 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 193 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 194 |
+
"n": 1968,
|
| 195 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.036468495934959384,
|
| 196 |
+
"total_pnl": -71.77000000000007,
|
| 197 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36636178861788615
|
| 198 |
+
},
|
| 199 |
+
{
|
| 200 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 201 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 202 |
+
"n": 1664,
|
| 203 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03783653846153854,
|
| 204 |
+
"total_pnl": -62.96000000000013,
|
| 205 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36538461538461536
|
| 206 |
+
},
|
| 207 |
+
{
|
| 208 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 209 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 210 |
+
"n": 1381,
|
| 211 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.039804489500362104,
|
| 212 |
+
"total_pnl": -54.97000000000007,
|
| 213 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3620564808110065
|
| 214 |
+
},
|
| 215 |
+
{
|
| 216 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 217 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 218 |
+
"n": 1159,
|
| 219 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03815358067299398,
|
| 220 |
+
"total_pnl": -44.22000000000002,
|
| 221 |
+
"win_rate": 0.362381363244176
|
| 222 |
+
},
|
| 223 |
+
{
|
| 224 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 225 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 226 |
+
"n": 944,
|
| 227 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.041811440677966126,
|
| 228 |
+
"total_pnl": -39.47000000000002,
|
| 229 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3665254237288136
|
| 230 |
+
},
|
| 231 |
+
{
|
| 232 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 233 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 234 |
+
"n": 779,
|
| 235 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.041566110397946054,
|
| 236 |
+
"total_pnl": -32.379999999999974,
|
| 237 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3684210526315789
|
| 238 |
+
},
|
| 239 |
+
{
|
| 240 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 241 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 242 |
+
"n": 553,
|
| 243 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.029764918625678108,
|
| 244 |
+
"total_pnl": -16.459999999999994,
|
| 245 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3779385171790235
|
| 246 |
+
},
|
| 247 |
+
{
|
| 248 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 249 |
+
"weight": 0.25,
|
| 250 |
+
"n": 329,
|
| 251 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.054285714285714284,
|
| 252 |
+
"total_pnl": -17.86,
|
| 253 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3191489361702128
|
| 254 |
+
},
|
| 255 |
+
{
|
| 256 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 257 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 258 |
+
"n": 1580,
|
| 259 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03751898734177219,
|
| 260 |
+
"total_pnl": -59.280000000000065,
|
| 261 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3550632911392405
|
| 262 |
+
},
|
| 263 |
+
{
|
| 264 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 265 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 266 |
+
"n": 1217,
|
| 267 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.0410599835661463,
|
| 268 |
+
"total_pnl": -49.97000000000005,
|
| 269 |
+
"win_rate": 0.352506162695152
|
| 270 |
+
},
|
| 271 |
+
{
|
| 272 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 273 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 274 |
+
"n": 906,
|
| 275 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03735099337748348,
|
| 276 |
+
"total_pnl": -33.84000000000003,
|
| 277 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36423841059602646
|
| 278 |
+
},
|
| 279 |
+
{
|
| 280 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 281 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 282 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 283 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 284 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 285 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495
|
| 286 |
+
},
|
| 287 |
+
{
|
| 288 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 289 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 290 |
+
"n": 473,
|
| 291 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03911205073995768,
|
| 292 |
+
"total_pnl": -18.499999999999982,
|
| 293 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35517970401691334
|
| 294 |
+
},
|
| 295 |
+
{
|
| 296 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 297 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 298 |
+
"n": 347,
|
| 299 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05760806916426511,
|
| 300 |
+
"total_pnl": -19.989999999999995,
|
| 301 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3170028818443804
|
| 302 |
+
},
|
| 303 |
+
{
|
| 304 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 305 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 306 |
+
"n": 213,
|
| 307 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06737089201877931,
|
| 308 |
+
"total_pnl": -14.349999999999994,
|
| 309 |
+
"win_rate": 0.28169014084507044
|
| 310 |
+
},
|
| 311 |
+
{
|
| 312 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 313 |
+
"weight": 0.5,
|
| 314 |
+
"n": 65,
|
| 315 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.12123076923076921,
|
| 316 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.879999999999999,
|
| 317 |
+
"win_rate": 0.15384615384615385
|
| 318 |
+
},
|
| 319 |
+
{
|
| 320 |
+
"min_edge": 0.02,
|
| 321 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 322 |
+
"n": 815,
|
| 323 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.033963190184049065,
|
| 324 |
+
"total_pnl": -27.679999999999986,
|
| 325 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3460122699386503
|
| 326 |
+
},
|
| 327 |
+
{
|
| 328 |
+
"min_edge": 0.04,
|
| 329 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 330 |
+
"n": 414,
|
| 331 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.04422705314009662,
|
| 332 |
+
"total_pnl": -18.31,
|
| 333 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3357487922705314
|
| 334 |
+
},
|
| 335 |
+
{
|
| 336 |
+
"min_edge": 0.06,
|
| 337 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 338 |
+
"n": 222,
|
| 339 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.062387387387387375,
|
| 340 |
+
"total_pnl": -13.849999999999998,
|
| 341 |
+
"win_rate": 0.27927927927927926
|
| 342 |
+
},
|
| 343 |
+
{
|
| 344 |
+
"min_edge": 0.08,
|
| 345 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 346 |
+
"n": 87,
|
| 347 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.14689655172413793,
|
| 348 |
+
"total_pnl": -12.780000000000001,
|
| 349 |
+
"win_rate": 0.13793103448275862
|
| 350 |
+
},
|
| 351 |
+
{
|
| 352 |
+
"min_edge": 0.1,
|
| 353 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 354 |
+
"n": 33,
|
| 355 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07636363636363638,
|
| 356 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.5200000000000005,
|
| 357 |
+
"win_rate": 0.15151515151515152
|
| 358 |
+
},
|
| 359 |
+
{
|
| 360 |
+
"min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 361 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 362 |
+
"n": 18,
|
| 363 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07666666666666666,
|
| 364 |
+
"total_pnl": -1.38,
|
| 365 |
+
"win_rate": 0.1111111111111111
|
| 366 |
+
},
|
| 367 |
+
{
|
| 368 |
+
"min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 369 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 370 |
+
"n": 6,
|
| 371 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.034999999999999996,
|
| 372 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.20999999999999996,
|
| 373 |
+
"win_rate": 0.16666666666666666
|
| 374 |
+
},
|
| 375 |
+
{
|
| 376 |
+
"min_edge": 0.2,
|
| 377 |
+
"weight": 0.75,
|
| 378 |
+
"n": 0,
|
| 379 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": null,
|
| 380 |
+
"total_pnl": null,
|
| 381 |
+
"win_rate": null
|
| 382 |
+
}
|
| 383 |
+
],
|
| 384 |
+
"by_station": {
|
| 385 |
+
"atl": {
|
| 386 |
+
"n": 56,
|
| 387 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3392857142857143,
|
| 388 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.1396428571428572,
|
| 389 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.820000000000004,
|
| 390 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11516389611186005,
|
| 391 |
+
"avg_win": 0.46157894736842114,
|
| 392 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.4483783783783783,
|
| 393 |
+
"fees": 1.0700000000000005
|
| 394 |
+
},
|
| 395 |
+
"aus": {
|
| 396 |
+
"n": 110,
|
| 397 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3,
|
| 398 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06981818181818183,
|
| 399 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.6800000000000015,
|
| 400 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12574856309026325,
|
| 401 |
+
"avg_win": 0.49696969696969695,
|
| 402 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.31272727272727263,
|
| 403 |
+
"fees": 1.9100000000000013
|
| 404 |
+
},
|
| 405 |
+
"chi": {
|
| 406 |
+
"n": 61,
|
| 407 |
+
"win_rate": 0.45901639344262296,
|
| 408 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.07081967213114755,
|
| 409 |
+
"total_pnl": 4.32,
|
| 410 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12490570195591762,
|
| 411 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5271428571428571,
|
| 412 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3163636363636363,
|
| 413 |
+
"fees": 1.0900000000000005
|
| 414 |
+
},
|
| 415 |
+
"dal": {
|
| 416 |
+
"n": 68,
|
| 417 |
+
"win_rate": 0.35294117647058826,
|
| 418 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.041323529411764724,
|
| 419 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.8100000000000014,
|
| 420 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.14890932698341852,
|
| 421 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5412499999999999,
|
| 422 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3590909090909091,
|
| 423 |
+
"fees": 1.3000000000000007
|
| 424 |
+
},
|
| 425 |
+
"den": {
|
| 426 |
+
"n": 78,
|
| 427 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3974358974358974,
|
| 428 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.08051282051282053,
|
| 429 |
+
"total_pnl": -6.280000000000002,
|
| 430 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13257764636628133,
|
| 431 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4870967741935483,
|
| 432 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.4548936170212767,
|
| 433 |
+
"fees": 1.4900000000000009
|
| 434 |
+
},
|
| 435 |
+
"lax": {
|
| 436 |
+
"n": 79,
|
| 437 |
+
"win_rate": 0.34177215189873417,
|
| 438 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06012658227848102,
|
| 439 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.750000000000001,
|
| 440 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.19174599248279167,
|
| 441 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5096296296296297,
|
| 442 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3559615384615385,
|
| 443 |
+
"fees": 1.4600000000000009
|
| 444 |
+
},
|
| 445 |
+
"mia": {
|
| 446 |
+
"n": 58,
|
| 447 |
+
"win_rate": 0.39655172413793105,
|
| 448 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.03844827586206896,
|
| 449 |
+
"total_pnl": 2.23,
|
| 450 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1221648011134733,
|
| 451 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5634782608695652,
|
| 452 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.30657142857142866,
|
| 453 |
+
"fees": 1.0400000000000005
|
| 454 |
+
},
|
| 455 |
+
"nyc": {
|
| 456 |
+
"n": 66,
|
| 457 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3939393939393939,
|
| 458 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.027121212121212122,
|
| 459 |
+
"total_pnl": 1.79,
|
| 460 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13904160334960275,
|
| 461 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5646153846153846,
|
| 462 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3222499999999999,
|
| 463 |
+
"fees": 1.1700000000000006
|
| 464 |
+
},
|
| 465 |
+
"phl": {
|
| 466 |
+
"n": 53,
|
| 467 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3584905660377358,
|
| 468 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.047169811320754707,
|
| 469 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.4999999999999996,
|
| 470 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11557643354636696,
|
| 471 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4884210526315788,
|
| 472 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3464705882352941,
|
| 473 |
+
"fees": 0.9500000000000006
|
| 474 |
+
},
|
| 475 |
+
"sat": {
|
| 476 |
+
"n": 30,
|
| 477 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4666666666666667,
|
| 478 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.030999999999999982,
|
| 479 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.9299999999999995,
|
| 480 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12728514884694409,
|
| 481 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5207142857142857,
|
| 482 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.39749999999999996,
|
| 483 |
+
"fees": 0.5800000000000002
|
| 484 |
+
}
|
| 485 |
+
},
|
| 486 |
+
"by_week": {
|
| 487 |
+
"2026-W28": {
|
| 488 |
+
"n": 39,
|
| 489 |
+
"win_rate": 0.41025641025641024,
|
| 490 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.0035897435897435646,
|
| 491 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.13999999999999901,
|
| 492 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13990723496346977,
|
| 493 |
+
"avg_win": 0.51375,
|
| 494 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35130434782608694,
|
| 495 |
+
"fees": 0.7100000000000003
|
| 496 |
+
},
|
| 497 |
+
"2026-W29": {
|
| 498 |
+
"n": 62,
|
| 499 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3387096774193548,
|
| 500 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06564516129032259,
|
| 501 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.070000000000001,
|
| 502 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13582239514967348,
|
| 503 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5019047619047617,
|
| 504 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35634146341463413,
|
| 505 |
+
"fees": 1.1300000000000008
|
| 506 |
+
},
|
| 507 |
+
"2026-W30": {
|
| 508 |
+
"n": 57,
|
| 509 |
+
"win_rate": 0.47368421052631576,
|
| 510 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.07438596491228071,
|
| 511 |
+
"total_pnl": 4.24,
|
| 512 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12606198235331323,
|
| 513 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5492592592592592,
|
| 514 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3529999999999999,
|
| 515 |
+
"fees": 1.0500000000000007
|
| 516 |
+
},
|
| 517 |
+
"2026-W31": {
|
| 518 |
+
"n": 81,
|
| 519 |
+
"win_rate": 0.4074074074074074,
|
| 520 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03629629629629632,
|
| 521 |
+
"total_pnl": -2.9400000000000017,
|
| 522 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13337919111293645,
|
| 523 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4793939393939394,
|
| 524 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3908333333333333,
|
| 525 |
+
"fees": 1.520000000000001
|
| 526 |
+
},
|
| 527 |
+
"2026-W32": {
|
| 528 |
+
"n": 71,
|
| 529 |
+
"win_rate": 0.352112676056338,
|
| 530 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.06239436619718313,
|
| 531 |
+
"total_pnl": -4.430000000000002,
|
| 532 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1415441717855739,
|
| 533 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5008,
|
| 534 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.36847826086956526,
|
| 535 |
+
"fees": 1.3100000000000007
|
| 536 |
+
},
|
| 537 |
+
"2026-W33": {
|
| 538 |
+
"n": 69,
|
| 539 |
+
"win_rate": 0.30434782608695654,
|
| 540 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.08884057971014495,
|
| 541 |
+
"total_pnl": -6.130000000000001,
|
| 542 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1394905043837934,
|
| 543 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5047619047619049,
|
| 544 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3485416666666666,
|
| 545 |
+
"fees": 1.2800000000000007
|
| 546 |
+
},
|
| 547 |
+
"2026-W34": {
|
| 548 |
+
"n": 70,
|
| 549 |
+
"win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
|
| 550 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.05242857142857142,
|
| 551 |
+
"total_pnl": 3.6699999999999995,
|
| 552 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13471800521779553,
|
| 553 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5459375,
|
| 554 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3631578947368422,
|
| 555 |
+
"fees": 1.2700000000000007
|
| 556 |
+
},
|
| 557 |
+
"2026-W35": {
|
| 558 |
+
"n": 74,
|
| 559 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
|
| 560 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
|
| 561 |
+
"total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
|
| 562 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
|
| 563 |
+
"avg_win": 0.51375,
|
| 564 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3214,
|
| 565 |
+
"fees": 1.290000000000001
|
| 566 |
+
},
|
| 567 |
+
"2026-W36": {
|
| 568 |
+
"n": 64,
|
| 569 |
+
"win_rate": 0.28125,
|
| 570 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
|
| 571 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.63,
|
| 572 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
|
| 573 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
|
| 574 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
|
| 575 |
+
"fees": 1.1700000000000006
|
| 576 |
+
},
|
| 577 |
+
"2026-W37": {
|
| 578 |
+
"n": 72,
|
| 579 |
+
"win_rate": 0.375,
|
| 580 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
|
| 581 |
+
"total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
|
| 582 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1328749530169296,
|
| 583 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
|
| 584 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
|
| 585 |
+
"fees": 1.3300000000000007
|
| 586 |
+
}
|
| 587 |
+
},
|
| 588 |
+
"by_kind": {
|
| 589 |
+
"high": {
|
| 590 |
+
"n": 584,
|
| 591 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3732876712328767,
|
| 592 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03809931506849311,
|
| 593 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.249999999999975,
|
| 594 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13889129838596392,
|
| 595 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5167889908256877,
|
| 596 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3686065573770494,
|
| 597 |
+
"fees": 10.829999999999854
|
| 598 |
+
},
|
| 599 |
+
"low": {
|
| 600 |
+
"n": 75,
|
| 601 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3466666666666667,
|
| 602 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.004266666666666681,
|
| 603 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.32000000000000106,
|
| 604 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.11479311294273456,
|
| 605 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5126923076923077,
|
| 606 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.27857142857142864,
|
| 607 |
+
"fees": 1.2300000000000006
|
| 608 |
+
}
|
| 609 |
+
},
|
| 610 |
+
"dataset": {
|
| 611 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl",
|
| 612 |
+
"digest": "473dd50d81ce9a0b"
|
| 613 |
+
},
|
| 614 |
+
"generated": "2026-09-15T10:49:06",
|
| 615 |
+
"sources": {
|
| 616 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 617 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl",
|
| 618 |
+
"digest": "d2877ab7c35ca980",
|
| 619 |
+
"rows": 3504,
|
| 620 |
+
"paired_rows": 3504,
|
| 621 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 622 |
+
"n": 685,
|
| 623 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
|
| 624 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05347445255474454,
|
| 625 |
+
"total_pnl": -36.63000000000001,
|
| 626 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1312766309537847,
|
| 627 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5182352941176469,
|
| 628 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.32577586206896564,
|
| 629 |
+
"fees": 12.069999999999826,
|
| 630 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 631 |
+
"max_drawdown": 40.540000000000006,
|
| 632 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.5467164179104478,
|
| 633 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.361439064906557,
|
| 634 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.401572447862712,
|
| 635 |
+
"t_stat": -3.2870121492206548,
|
| 636 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 637 |
+
-0.08444104134762637,
|
| 638 |
+
-0.021280575539568355
|
| 639 |
+
]
|
| 640 |
+
},
|
| 641 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 642 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 643 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495,
|
| 644 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 645 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 646 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13614871278923818,
|
| 647 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5163524590163934,
|
| 648 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579759036144579,
|
| 649 |
+
"fees": 12.059999999999828,
|
| 650 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 651 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.300000000000008,
|
| 652 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33686567164179115,
|
| 653 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.464266502646771,
|
| 654 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23005762341273348,
|
| 655 |
+
"t_stat": -1.8831028054918062,
|
| 656 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 657 |
+
-0.06948881789137377,
|
| 658 |
+
-0.00028315946348734584
|
| 659 |
+
]
|
| 660 |
+
},
|
| 661 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16311399406636498,
|
| 662 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631510936117957
|
| 663 |
+
},
|
| 664 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 665 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl",
|
| 666 |
+
"digest": "e9f0e030552ef5b6",
|
| 667 |
+
"rows": 3504,
|
| 668 |
+
"paired_rows": 3504,
|
| 669 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 670 |
+
"n": 726,
|
| 671 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3677685950413223,
|
| 672 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03586776859504134,
|
| 673 |
+
"total_pnl": -26.04000000000001,
|
| 674 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1363025695285915,
|
| 675 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4940074906367039,
|
| 676 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.34409586056644875,
|
| 677 |
+
"fees": 13.049999999999805,
|
| 678 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 679 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.20000000000002,
|
| 680 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3886567164179108,
|
| 681 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4768720995917999,
|
| 682 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.26316206835062667,
|
| 683 |
+
"t_stat": -2.1540743656254895,
|
| 684 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 685 |
+
-0.06894002789400278,
|
| 686 |
+
-0.0033837689133425193
|
| 687 |
+
]
|
| 688 |
+
},
|
| 689 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 690 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 691 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495,
|
| 692 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 693 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 694 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13614871278923818,
|
| 695 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5163524590163934,
|
| 696 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579759036144579,
|
| 697 |
+
"fees": 12.059999999999828,
|
| 698 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 699 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.300000000000008,
|
| 700 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33686567164179115,
|
| 701 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.464266502646771,
|
| 702 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23005762341273348,
|
| 703 |
+
"t_stat": -1.8831028054918062,
|
| 704 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 705 |
+
-0.06948881789137377,
|
| 706 |
+
-0.00028315946348734584
|
| 707 |
+
]
|
| 708 |
+
},
|
| 709 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1652207395331116,
|
| 710 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631510936117957
|
| 711 |
+
}
|
| 712 |
+
},
|
| 713 |
+
"simulation": [
|
| 714 |
+
{
|
| 715 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 716 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 717 |
+
"final": 877.75,
|
| 718 |
+
"return": -0.1222,
|
| 719 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2277,
|
| 720 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 721 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 722 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 723 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 724 |
+
},
|
| 725 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 726 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 241.32
|
| 727 |
+
},
|
| 728 |
+
{
|
| 729 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 730 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 731 |
+
"final": 698.78,
|
| 732 |
+
"return": -0.3012,
|
| 733 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7051,
|
| 734 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 735 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 736 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 737 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 738 |
+
},
|
| 739 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 740 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1121.28
|
| 741 |
+
},
|
| 742 |
+
{
|
| 743 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 744 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 745 |
+
"final": 516.59,
|
| 746 |
+
"return": -0.4834,
|
| 747 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7719,
|
| 748 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 749 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 750 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 751 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 752 |
+
},
|
| 753 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 754 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1019.32
|
| 755 |
+
},
|
| 756 |
+
{
|
| 757 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 758 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 759 |
+
"final": 1120.25,
|
| 760 |
+
"return": 0.1202,
|
| 761 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1517,
|
| 762 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 763 |
+
"entered": 11,
|
| 764 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 765 |
+
"edge": 67,
|
| 766 |
+
"kill-switch": 581
|
| 767 |
+
},
|
| 768 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-17",
|
| 769 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 200.33
|
| 770 |
+
}
|
| 771 |
+
]
|
| 772 |
+
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,223 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-09', '2026-09-13'] · 3504 rows · 67 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
## E1 ablation
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
|
| 6 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 7 |
+
| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1566 | 38% | -0.040 | [-0.057, -0.021] | -61.92 | 62.04 | -4.37 |
|
| 8 |
+
| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1471 | 37% | -0.039 | [-0.058, -0.018] | -57.16 | 59.58 | -3.79 |
|
| 9 |
+
| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 659 | 37% | -0.034 | [-0.069, -0.000] | -22.57 | 24.30 | -1.88 |
|
| 10 |
+
| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 654 | 38% | -0.034 | [-0.069, +0.001] | -22.44 | 23.62 | -1.90 |
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
|
| 15 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 16 |
+
| 0.00 | -0.037 (2143) | -0.039 (1928) | -0.040 (1704) | -0.039 (1471) | -0.042 (1297) | -0.038 (1128) | -0.037 (902) | -0.032 (596) |
|
| 17 |
+
| 0.25 | -0.036 (1968) | -0.038 (1664) | -0.040 (1381) | -0.038 (1159) | -0.042 (944) | -0.042 (779) | -0.030 (553) | -0.054 (329) |
|
| 18 |
+
| 0.50 | -0.038 (1580) | -0.041 (1217) | -0.037 (906) | -0.034 (659) | -0.039 (473) | -0.058 (347) | -0.067 (213) | -0.121 (65) |
|
| 19 |
+
| 0.75 | -0.034 (815) | -0.044 (414) | -0.062 (222) | -0.147 (87) | -0.076 (33) | -0.077 (18) | +0.035 (6) | — |
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
## E6 by station
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 24 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 25 |
+
| atl | 56 | 34% | -0.140 | -7.82 |
|
| 26 |
+
| aus | 110 | 30% | -0.070 | -7.68 |
|
| 27 |
+
| chi | 61 | 46% | +0.071 | +4.32 |
|
| 28 |
+
| dal | 68 | 35% | -0.041 | -2.81 |
|
| 29 |
+
| den | 78 | 40% | -0.081 | -6.28 |
|
| 30 |
+
| lax | 79 | 34% | -0.060 | -4.75 |
|
| 31 |
+
| mia | 58 | 40% | +0.038 | +2.23 |
|
| 32 |
+
| nyc | 66 | 39% | +0.027 | +1.79 |
|
| 33 |
+
| phl | 53 | 36% | -0.047 | -2.50 |
|
| 34 |
+
| sat | 30 | 47% | +0.031 | +0.93 |
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## E6 by week
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 39 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 40 |
+
| 2026-W28 | 39 | 41% | +0.004 | +0.14 |
|
| 41 |
+
| 2026-W29 | 62 | 34% | -0.066 | -4.07 |
|
| 42 |
+
| 2026-W30 | 57 | 47% | +0.074 | +4.24 |
|
| 43 |
+
| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
|
| 44 |
+
| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
|
| 45 |
+
| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
|
| 46 |
+
| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
|
| 47 |
+
| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
|
| 48 |
+
| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
|
| 49 |
+
| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
## E6 by kind
|
| 52 |
+
|
| 53 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 54 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 55 |
+
| high | 584 | 37% | -0.038 | -22.25 |
|
| 56 |
+
| low | 75 | 35% | -0.004 | -0.32 |
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
## sources
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
```json
|
| 61 |
+
{
|
| 62 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 63 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl",
|
| 64 |
+
"digest": "d2877ab7c35ca980",
|
| 65 |
+
"rows": 3504,
|
| 66 |
+
"paired_rows": 3504,
|
| 67 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 68 |
+
"n": 685,
|
| 69 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
|
| 70 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05347445255474454,
|
| 71 |
+
"total_pnl": -36.63000000000001,
|
| 72 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1312766309537847,
|
| 73 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5182352941176469,
|
| 74 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.32577586206896564,
|
| 75 |
+
"fees": 12.069999999999826,
|
| 76 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 77 |
+
"max_drawdown": 40.540000000000006,
|
| 78 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.5467164179104478,
|
| 79 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.361439064906557,
|
| 80 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.401572447862712,
|
| 81 |
+
"t_stat": -3.2870121492206548,
|
| 82 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 83 |
+
-0.08444104134762637,
|
| 84 |
+
-0.021280575539568355
|
| 85 |
+
]
|
| 86 |
+
},
|
| 87 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 88 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 89 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495,
|
| 90 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 91 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 92 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13614871278923818,
|
| 93 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5163524590163934,
|
| 94 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579759036144579,
|
| 95 |
+
"fees": 12.059999999999828,
|
| 96 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 97 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.300000000000008,
|
| 98 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33686567164179115,
|
| 99 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.464266502646771,
|
| 100 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23005762341273348,
|
| 101 |
+
"t_stat": -1.8831028054918062,
|
| 102 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 103 |
+
-0.06948881789137377,
|
| 104 |
+
-0.00028315946348734584
|
| 105 |
+
]
|
| 106 |
+
},
|
| 107 |
+
"brier_source": 0.16311399406636498,
|
| 108 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631510936117957
|
| 109 |
+
},
|
| 110 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 111 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl",
|
| 112 |
+
"digest": "e9f0e030552ef5b6",
|
| 113 |
+
"rows": 3504,
|
| 114 |
+
"paired_rows": 3504,
|
| 115 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 116 |
+
"n": 726,
|
| 117 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3677685950413223,
|
| 118 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03586776859504134,
|
| 119 |
+
"total_pnl": -26.04000000000001,
|
| 120 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.1363025695285915,
|
| 121 |
+
"avg_win": 0.4940074906367039,
|
| 122 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.34409586056644875,
|
| 123 |
+
"fees": 13.049999999999805,
|
| 124 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 125 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.20000000000002,
|
| 126 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3886567164179108,
|
| 127 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.4768720995917999,
|
| 128 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.26316206835062667,
|
| 129 |
+
"t_stat": -2.1540743656254895,
|
| 130 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 131 |
+
-0.06894002789400278,
|
| 132 |
+
-0.0033837689133425193
|
| 133 |
+
]
|
| 134 |
+
},
|
| 135 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 136 |
+
"n": 659,
|
| 137 |
+
"win_rate": 0.37025796661608495,
|
| 138 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03424886191198784,
|
| 139 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.569999999999986,
|
| 140 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13614871278923818,
|
| 141 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5163524590163934,
|
| 142 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579759036144579,
|
| 143 |
+
"fees": 12.059999999999828,
|
| 144 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 145 |
+
"max_drawdown": 24.300000000000008,
|
| 146 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.33686567164179115,
|
| 147 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.464266502646771,
|
| 148 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.23005762341273348,
|
| 149 |
+
"t_stat": -1.8831028054918062,
|
| 150 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 151 |
+
-0.06948881789137377,
|
| 152 |
+
-0.00028315946348734584
|
| 153 |
+
]
|
| 154 |
+
},
|
| 155 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1652207395331116,
|
| 156 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631510936117957
|
| 157 |
+
}
|
| 158 |
+
}
|
| 159 |
+
```
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
## simulation
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
```json
|
| 164 |
+
[
|
| 165 |
+
{
|
| 166 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 167 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 168 |
+
"final": 877.75,
|
| 169 |
+
"return": -0.1222,
|
| 170 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2277,
|
| 171 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 172 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 173 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 174 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 175 |
+
},
|
| 176 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 177 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 241.32
|
| 178 |
+
},
|
| 179 |
+
{
|
| 180 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 181 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 182 |
+
"final": 698.78,
|
| 183 |
+
"return": -0.3012,
|
| 184 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7051,
|
| 185 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 186 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 187 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 188 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 189 |
+
},
|
| 190 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 191 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1121.28
|
| 192 |
+
},
|
| 193 |
+
{
|
| 194 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 195 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 196 |
+
"final": 516.59,
|
| 197 |
+
"return": -0.4834,
|
| 198 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.7719,
|
| 199 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 200 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 201 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 202 |
+
"edge": 569
|
| 203 |
+
},
|
| 204 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 205 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1019.32
|
| 206 |
+
},
|
| 207 |
+
{
|
| 208 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 209 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 210 |
+
"final": 1120.25,
|
| 211 |
+
"return": 0.1202,
|
| 212 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1517,
|
| 213 |
+
"days": 67,
|
| 214 |
+
"entered": 11,
|
| 215 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 216 |
+
"edge": 67,
|
| 217 |
+
"kill-switch": 581
|
| 218 |
+
},
|
| 219 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-17",
|
| 220 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 200.33
|
| 221 |
+
}
|
| 222 |
+
]
|
| 223 |
+
```
|
replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|