forecasts @ 6 files, 73 replay artifacts
Browse files- README.md +11 -6
- data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl +20 -0
- data/baseline-nbm.jsonl +22 -0
- data/gencast-spread.json +1 -1
- data/graphcast-tempseries.json +0 -0
- data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl +160 -0
- data/own-models.jsonl +140 -0
- replay/lineage.json +103 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json +773 -0
- replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md +224 -0
- replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl +0 -0
- replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl +0 -0
README.md
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@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
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| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 24,
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| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps |
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| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,
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| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,
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| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,
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| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,
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## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
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@@ -91,6 +94,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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@@ -104,6 +108,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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## Conventions
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| file | what | lines / bytes |
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| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 24,822 |
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| 25 |
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| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,080 |
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| 26 |
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| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,289 |
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| 27 |
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| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,540 |
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| 28 |
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| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,060 |
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| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,060 |
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## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.md`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json`
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- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
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- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-18.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-20.jsonl`
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- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl`
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## Conventions
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data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl
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@@ -2038,3 +2038,23 @@
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2059 |
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
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{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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data/baseline-nbm.jsonl
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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| 2038 |
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 100.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
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| 2043 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
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| 2045 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 96.0}
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| 2046 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "runtime": "2026-09-19T12:00:00", "value": 50.0}
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
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| 2050 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
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| 2051 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
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| 2052 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
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| 2053 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
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| 2054 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
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| 2055 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
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| 2056 |
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{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
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| 2057 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
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| 2058 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
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| 2059 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 97.0}
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| 2060 |
+
{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "runtime": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
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data/gencast-spread.json
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{"issued_at": "2026-09-
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| 1 |
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{"issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:40:50.698226+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.15, "1": 1.66, "2": 1.48, "3": 1.56, "4": 1.97, "5": 2.32, "6": 2.31}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.63, "low": 0.9}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.19, "low": 1.03}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.13, "low": 0.98}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.51}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 2.6, "low": 1.9}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.69, "low": 2.26}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 2.11, "low": 2.58}}, "aus": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.36, "low": 0.79}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 2.37, "low": 1.38}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.82, "low": 1.15}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.05, "low": 1.62}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 2.15, "low": 1.8}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 5.08, "low": 1.79}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.27, "low": 1.85}}, "chi": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.43, "low": 1.09}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 2.2, "low": 1.76}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.96, "low": 1.83}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 3.68, "low": 3.08}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.79, "low": 2.18}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.38, "low": 3.0}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 2.08, "low": 3.02}}, "mia": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 0.53, "low": 0.77}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.07, "low": 1.32}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.23, "low": 1.68}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.31, "low": 0.68}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 0.94, "low": 1.06}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 0.92, "low": 1.32}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.23, "low": 1.26}}, "lax": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.33, "low": 1.21}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.75, "low": 1.55}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 2.06, "low": 1.45}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.53, "low": 0.92}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 1.44, "low": 1.38}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 1.79, "low": 1.5}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.98, "low": 1.22}}, "phl": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 0.97, "low": 0.87}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.89, "low": 0.73}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.21, "low": 1.28}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.35, "low": 1.59}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 3.78, "low": 1.1}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.73, "low": 2.69}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 1.89, "low": 2.51}}, "den": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 5.12, "low": 1.56}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 2.2, "low": 3.6}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 5.17, "low": 2.19}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.7, "low": 1.26}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 3.06, "low": 3.27}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 3.32, "low": 3.15}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 2.77, "low": 2.51}}, "dal": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.63, "low": 0.77}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.73, "low": 1.18}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.5, "low": 0.97}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.89, "low": 1.76}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 4.18, "low": 2.03}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 4.34, "low": 2.22}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.36, "low": 3.16}}, "atl": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.68, "low": 0.78}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 1.6, "low": 1.84}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 3.7, "low": 1.08}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 2.25, "low": 1.07}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 2.35, "low": 1.4}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 2.61, "low": 1.18}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.33, "low": 1.53}}, "sat": {"2026-09-16": {"high": 1.36, "low": 0.79}, "2026-09-17": {"high": 2.37, "low": 1.38}, "2026-09-18": {"high": 1.82, "low": 1.15}, "2026-09-19": {"high": 1.05, "low": 1.62}, "2026-09-20": {"high": 2.15, "low": 1.8}, "2026-09-21": {"high": 5.08, "low": 1.79}, "2026-09-22": {"high": 3.27, "low": 1.85}}}}
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data/graphcast-tempseries.json
CHANGED
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data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl
CHANGED
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@@ -24660,3 +24660,163 @@
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| 24660 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 5, "mean": 60.58, "spread": 2.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 58.8, "gem_seamless": 57.9, "ukmo_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 64.2}}
|
| 24661 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 6, "mean": 79.08, "spread": 3.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 80.5, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "ukmo_seamless": 75.0, "jma_seamless": 80.2}}
|
| 24662 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 6, "mean": 60.67, "spread": 4.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 54.8, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 63.5, "jma_seamless": 63.4}}
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| 24660 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 5, "mean": 60.58, "spread": 2.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 58.8, "gem_seamless": 57.9, "ukmo_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 64.2}}
|
| 24661 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 6, "mean": 79.08, "spread": 3.0, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 80.5, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "ukmo_seamless": 75.0, "jma_seamless": 80.2}}
|
| 24662 |
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 6, "mean": 60.67, "spread": 4.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 54.8, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 63.5, "jma_seamless": 63.4}}
|
| 24663 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 71.45, "spread": 1.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.5, "icon_seamless": 70.5, "gem_seamless": 71.4, "ukmo_seamless": 74.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.8, "jma_seamless": 72.3, "graphcast": 67.7}}
|
| 24664 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 64.72, "spread": 1.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.6, "icon_seamless": 65.0, "gem_seamless": 66.1, "ukmo_seamless": 65.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.9, "jma_seamless": 67.4, "graphcast": 63.2}}
|
| 24665 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 65.26, "spread": 3.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.7, "icon_seamless": 64.7, "gem_seamless": 66.9, "ukmo_seamless": 70.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.9, "jma_seamless": 68.1, "graphcast": 61.5}}
|
| 24666 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 59.05, "spread": 2.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.6, "icon_seamless": 57.4, "gem_seamless": 58.4, "ukmo_seamless": 61.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.5, "jma_seamless": 61.8, "graphcast": 59.1}}
|
| 24667 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 65.35, "spread": 1.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.9, "icon_seamless": 66.2, "gem_seamless": 61.8, "ukmo_seamless": 66.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.2, "jma_seamless": 66.9, "graphcast": 65.0}}
|
| 24668 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 55.41, "spread": 2.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.6, "icon_seamless": 54.0, "gem_seamless": 54.4, "ukmo_seamless": 59.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 53.4, "jma_seamless": 56.4, "graphcast": 55.6}}
|
| 24669 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 64.71, "spread": 1.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.2, "icon_seamless": 64.8, "gem_seamless": 60.7, "ukmo_seamless": 65.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 66.1, "graphcast": 64.6}}
|
| 24670 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 54.99, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.2, "icon_seamless": 53.8, "gem_seamless": 53.4, "ukmo_seamless": 57.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 52.8, "jma_seamless": 57.0, "graphcast": 54.3}}
|
| 24671 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 65.79, "spread": 5.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 58.3, "icon_seamless": 59.1, "gem_seamless": 68.2, "ukmo_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 64.7, "graphcast": 70.9}}
|
| 24672 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 53.57, "spread": 1.75, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.6, "icon_seamless": 53.7, "gem_seamless": 53.6, "ukmo_seamless": 57.2, "jma_seamless": 51.8, "graphcast": 52.7}}
|
| 24673 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.9, "spread": 3.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.3, "icon_seamless": 63.4, "gem_seamless": 69.6, "ukmo_seamless": 70.5, "jma_seamless": 64.0, "graphcast": 74.5}}
|
| 24674 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 55.31, "spread": 2.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.8, "icon_seamless": 54.1, "gem_seamless": 52.9, "ukmo_seamless": 58.3, "jma_seamless": 51.7, "graphcast": 56.4}}
|
| 24675 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 68.44, "spread": 4.8, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.0, "icon_seamless": 61.4, "gem_seamless": 69.7, "jma_seamless": 74.6}}
|
| 24676 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 57.8, "spread": 4.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.4, "icon_seamless": 57.2, "gem_seamless": 52.0, "jma_seamless": 61.8}}
|
| 24677 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 78.0}
|
| 24678 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 67.0}
|
| 24679 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 71.17, "spread": 2.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.2, "icon_seamless": 72.1, "gem_seamless": 74.0, "ukmo_seamless": 72.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.3, "jma_seamless": 72.9, "graphcast": 67.5}}
|
| 24680 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 60.88, "spread": 1.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.1, "icon_seamless": 61.4, "gem_seamless": 61.9, "ukmo_seamless": 61.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 60.7, "jma_seamless": 62.3, "graphcast": 58.7}}
|
| 24681 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 65.05, "spread": 2.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.4, "icon_seamless": 65.0, "gem_seamless": 65.6, "ukmo_seamless": 69.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.0, "jma_seamless": 66.0, "graphcast": 60.6}}
|
| 24682 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 58.33, "spread": 1.86, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.5, "icon_seamless": 57.2, "gem_seamless": 59.8, "ukmo_seamless": 61.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.2, "jma_seamless": 58.3, "graphcast": 57.1}}
|
| 24683 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 65.97, "spread": 0.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.7, "icon_seamless": 66.7, "gem_seamless": 65.3, "ukmo_seamless": 66.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.4, "jma_seamless": 67.4, "graphcast": 64.7}}
|
| 24684 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 54.46, "spread": 1.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.6, "icon_seamless": 53.8, "gem_seamless": 56.5, "ukmo_seamless": 55.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 57.0, "jma_seamless": 51.8, "graphcast": 53.8}}
|
| 24685 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 65.34, "spread": 1.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.7, "icon_seamless": 65.8, "gem_seamless": 62.8, "ukmo_seamless": 65.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.4, "jma_seamless": 67.4, "graphcast": 65.1}}
|
| 24686 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 53.25, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 52.8, "icon_seamless": 53.0, "gem_seamless": 56.3, "ukmo_seamless": 55.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 53.1, "jma_seamless": 51.4, "graphcast": 52.1}}
|
| 24687 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.0, "spread": 5.08, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.0, "icon_seamless": 57.5, "gem_seamless": 65.4, "ukmo_seamless": 69.9, "jma_seamless": 65.3, "graphcast": 70.1}}
|
| 24688 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 53.36, "spread": 1.22, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 53.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.2, "icon_seamless": 53.5, "gem_seamless": 54.9, "ukmo_seamless": 53.8, "jma_seamless": 51.3, "graphcast": 52.2}}
|
| 24689 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.0, "spread": 5.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.8, "icon_seamless": 60.1, "gem_seamless": 72.0, "ukmo_seamless": 70.5, "jma_seamless": 63.5, "graphcast": 73.0}}
|
| 24690 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 56.07, "spread": 2.73, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.5, "icon_seamless": 56.0, "gem_seamless": 55.2, "ukmo_seamless": 59.0, "jma_seamless": 50.9, "graphcast": 57.2}}
|
| 24691 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 68.28, "spread": 5.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.6, "icon_seamless": 62.3, "gem_seamless": 73.0, "jma_seamless": 67.9}}
|
| 24692 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 56.88, "spread": 4.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.5, "icon_seamless": 58.5, "gem_seamless": 49.8, "jma_seamless": 60.1}}
|
| 24693 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 67.0}
|
| 24694 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 62.0}
|
| 24695 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 83.95, "spread": 1.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 87.1, "gem_seamless": 83.8, "ukmo_seamless": 83.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.4, "jma_seamless": 85.9, "graphcast": 82.4}}
|
| 24696 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 74.55, "spread": 1.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.1, "icon_seamless": 74.9, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 76.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.8, "jma_seamless": 73.2, "graphcast": 76.4}}
|
| 24697 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 83.76, "spread": 1.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.9, "icon_seamless": 83.1, "gem_seamless": 84.6, "ukmo_seamless": 84.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.9, "jma_seamless": 84.8, "graphcast": 81.4}}
|
| 24698 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.03, "spread": 1.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.5, "icon_seamless": 78.2, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 77.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.1, "jma_seamless": 75.0, "graphcast": 77.3}}
|
| 24699 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 84.09, "spread": 2.46, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 84.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.5, "icon_seamless": 82.6, "gem_seamless": 84.8, "ukmo_seamless": 89.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.0, "jma_seamless": 82.8, "graphcast": 81.7}}
|
| 24700 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 76.79, "spread": 1.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.2, "icon_seamless": 78.3, "gem_seamless": 73.0, "ukmo_seamless": 78.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.5, "jma_seamless": 77.4, "graphcast": 77.6}}
|
| 24701 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 87.06, "spread": 2.33, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.4, "icon_seamless": 88.4, "gem_seamless": 85.6, "ukmo_seamless": 88.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.9, "jma_seamless": 90.0, "graphcast": 85.0}}
|
| 24702 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 76.55, "spread": 2.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.7, "icon_seamless": 76.4, "gem_seamless": 73.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.9, "jma_seamless": 74.5, "graphcast": 77.4}}
|
| 24703 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 87.57, "spread": 2.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.6, "icon_seamless": 86.6, "gem_seamless": 86.3, "ukmo_seamless": 89.3, "jma_seamless": 87.8, "graphcast": 85.0}}
|
| 24704 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 76.7, "spread": 2.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.0, "icon_seamless": 75.7, "gem_seamless": 75.7, "ukmo_seamless": 76.4, "jma_seamless": 75.7, "graphcast": 76.9}}
|
| 24705 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 86.79, "spread": 2.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.4, "icon_seamless": 87.9, "gem_seamless": 85.5, "ukmo_seamless": 87.4, "jma_seamless": 86.2, "graphcast": 84.3}}
|
| 24706 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 75.57, "spread": 2.26, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.7, "icon_seamless": 74.0, "gem_seamless": 74.2, "ukmo_seamless": 74.6, "jma_seamless": 75.4, "graphcast": 77.1}}
|
| 24707 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 86.06, "spread": 3.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.2, "icon_seamless": 85.5, "gem_seamless": 83.8, "jma_seamless": 89.6}}
|
| 24708 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 75.04, "spread": 2.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.5, "icon_seamless": 75.7, "gem_seamless": 73.8, "jma_seamless": 72.4}}
|
| 24709 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 90.0}
|
| 24710 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 74.0}
|
| 24711 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 88.56, "spread": 1.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 91.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 89.6, "icon_seamless": 88.7, "gem_seamless": 89.1, "ukmo_seamless": 88.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 89.0, "jma_seamless": 85.9, "graphcast": 86.8}}
|
| 24712 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 70.89, "spread": 1.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.8, "icon_seamless": 69.6, "gem_seamless": 69.9, "ukmo_seamless": 72.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.4, "jma_seamless": 70.7, "graphcast": 70.6}}
|
| 24713 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 87.14, "spread": 2.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 90.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.2, "icon_seamless": 86.0, "gem_seamless": 84.3, "ukmo_seamless": 88.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 90.7, "jma_seamless": 85.8, "graphcast": 85.8}}
|
| 24714 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 71.74, "spread": 2.29, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 69.6, "gem_seamless": 73.1, "ukmo_seamless": 74.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.1, "jma_seamless": 70.5, "graphcast": 70.6}}
|
| 24715 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 79.24, "spread": 2.13, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.8, "icon_seamless": 79.6, "gem_seamless": 81.3, "ukmo_seamless": 76.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.9, "jma_seamless": 80.7, "graphcast": 77.2}}
|
| 24716 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 69.7, "spread": 1.33, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.5, "icon_seamless": 66.9, "gem_seamless": 69.7, "ukmo_seamless": 69.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.3, "jma_seamless": 71.0, "graphcast": 70.0}}
|
| 24717 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 74.88, "spread": 4.06, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.6, "icon_seamless": 77.7, "gem_seamless": 71.8, "ukmo_seamless": 76.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.0, "jma_seamless": 74.0, "graphcast": 67.0}}
|
| 24718 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 64.86, "spread": 2.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.4, "icon_seamless": 62.9, "gem_seamless": 63.1, "ukmo_seamless": 64.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.4, "jma_seamless": 69.4, "graphcast": 62.8}}
|
| 24719 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 76.36, "spread": 3.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.3, "icon_seamless": 80.3, "gem_seamless": 76.1, "ukmo_seamless": 75.4, "jma_seamless": 72.6, "graphcast": 70.7}}
|
| 24720 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 60.34, "spread": 2.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 61.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 57.0, "gem_seamless": 57.9, "ukmo_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 65.4, "graphcast": 59.5}}
|
| 24721 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 78.27, "spread": 3.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.7, "icon_seamless": 81.6, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "ukmo_seamless": 75.0, "jma_seamless": 80.2, "graphcast": 73.1}}
|
| 24722 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 60.41, "spread": 4.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 57.4, "icon_seamless": 54.5, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 63.5, "jma_seamless": 63.2, "graphcast": 61.1}}
|
| 24723 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 79.3, "spread": 0.66, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.7, "icon_seamless": 79.6, "gem_seamless": 79.4, "jma_seamless": 78.6}}
|
| 24724 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 57.98, "spread": 6.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 51.9, "icon_seamless": 51.6, "gem_seamless": 58.2, "jma_seamless": 62.6}}
|
| 24725 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 89.0}
|
| 24726 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 71.0}
|
| 24727 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 95.38, "spread": 3.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.5, "icon_seamless": 96.6, "gem_seamless": 95.8, "ukmo_seamless": 96.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.2, "jma_seamless": 88.4, "graphcast": 91.7}}
|
| 24728 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 77.81, "spread": 2.65, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 76.0, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.5, "jma_seamless": 77.4, "graphcast": 77.4}}
|
| 24729 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 94.08, "spread": 4.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.3, "icon_seamless": 95.6, "gem_seamless": 96.6, "ukmo_seamless": 93.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.2, "jma_seamless": 85.7, "graphcast": 90.8}}
|
| 24730 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.99, "spread": 2.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.3, "icon_seamless": 75.0, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.6, "jma_seamless": 76.9, "graphcast": 75.9}}
|
| 24731 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 95.59, "spread": 3.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.1, "icon_seamless": 98.0, "gem_seamless": 96.7, "ukmo_seamless": 96.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 99.4, "jma_seamless": 88.4, "graphcast": 90.8}}
|
| 24732 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 76.95, "spread": 3.48, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.8, "icon_seamless": 74.6, "gem_seamless": 73.6, "ukmo_seamless": 78.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.9, "jma_seamless": 76.1, "graphcast": 76.1}}
|
| 24733 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 95.61, "spread": 4.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.5, "icon_seamless": 96.0, "gem_seamless": 96.1, "ukmo_seamless": 99.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 100.8, "jma_seamless": 89.6, "graphcast": 89.1}}
|
| 24734 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.67, "spread": 3.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.8, "icon_seamless": 77.3, "gem_seamless": 73.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 84.7, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 76.2}}
|
| 24735 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 94.5, "spread": 3.82, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 98.1, "icon_seamless": 93.5, "gem_seamless": 93.6, "ukmo_seamless": 96.9, "jma_seamless": 91.1, "graphcast": 88.9}}
|
| 24736 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 74.47, "spread": 3.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.4, "icon_seamless": 68.2, "gem_seamless": 71.8, "ukmo_seamless": 74.4, "jma_seamless": 79.5, "graphcast": 75.8}}
|
| 24737 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 94.54, "spread": 3.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 96.6, "icon_seamless": 95.4, "gem_seamless": 93.8, "ukmo_seamless": 93.4, "jma_seamless": 92.8, "graphcast": 89.9}}
|
| 24738 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 72.07, "spread": 3.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.1, "icon_seamless": 67.1, "gem_seamless": 68.7, "ukmo_seamless": 71.2, "jma_seamless": 73.0, "graphcast": 75.6}}
|
| 24739 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 96.66, "spread": 2.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 99.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.0, "icon_seamless": 97.5, "gem_seamless": 94.8, "jma_seamless": 94.1}}
|
| 24740 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 74.66, "spread": 2.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.4, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 72.0, "jma_seamless": 76.6}}
|
| 24741 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 98.0}
|
| 24742 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 70.0}
|
| 24743 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 63.15, "spread": 1.41, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.4, "icon_seamless": 64.5, "gem_seamless": 62.7, "ukmo_seamless": 65.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.0, "jma_seamless": 61.1, "graphcast": 62.6}}
|
| 24744 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 58.67, "spread": 1.33, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.1, "icon_seamless": 60.3, "gem_seamless": 58.9, "ukmo_seamless": 59.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 59.3, "jma_seamless": 57.3, "graphcast": 59.0}}
|
| 24745 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 62.09, "spread": 1.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.3, "icon_seamless": 60.9, "gem_seamless": 65.5, "ukmo_seamless": 62.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.5, "jma_seamless": 60.5, "graphcast": 62.1}}
|
| 24746 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 55.94, "spread": 1.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.6, "icon_seamless": 56.6, "gem_seamless": 55.3, "ukmo_seamless": 56.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.8, "jma_seamless": 58.7, "graphcast": 56.2}}
|
| 24747 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.17, "spread": 1.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.7, "icon_seamless": 62.8, "gem_seamless": 67.3, "ukmo_seamless": 66.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 63.8, "jma_seamless": 62.8, "graphcast": 64.6}}
|
| 24748 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 57.79, "spread": 1.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.9, "icon_seamless": 57.6, "gem_seamless": 57.4, "ukmo_seamless": 55.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 57.8, "jma_seamless": 59.5, "graphcast": 58.7}}
|
| 24749 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 65.0, "spread": 1.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.5, "icon_seamless": 65.7, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 65.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.6, "jma_seamless": 64.5, "graphcast": 64.6}}
|
| 24750 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 57.88, "spread": 2.12, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.2, "icon_seamless": 54.7, "gem_seamless": 57.8, "ukmo_seamless": 59.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 58.4, "jma_seamless": 60.5, "graphcast": 57.1}}
|
| 24751 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.87, "spread": 1.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.0, "icon_seamless": 66.1, "gem_seamless": 64.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.0, "jma_seamless": 67.8, "graphcast": 67.8}}
|
| 24752 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.71, "spread": 2.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.0, "icon_seamless": 53.9, "gem_seamless": 56.6, "ukmo_seamless": 60.4, "jma_seamless": 60.5, "graphcast": 59.3}}
|
| 24753 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 66.6, "spread": 2.36, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.4, "icon_seamless": 68.2, "gem_seamless": 65.0, "ukmo_seamless": 66.5, "jma_seamless": 70.1, "graphcast": 68.3}}
|
| 24754 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 54.14, "spread": 3.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 50.3, "icon_seamless": 50.1, "gem_seamless": 51.4, "ukmo_seamless": 57.0, "jma_seamless": 55.9, "graphcast": 54.9}}
|
| 24755 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 69.48, "spread": 4.86, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 62.5, "gem_seamless": 69.8, "jma_seamless": 74.4}}
|
| 24756 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 54.48, "spread": 5.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 47.2, "icon_seamless": 50.9, "gem_seamless": 53.7, "jma_seamless": 59.7}}
|
| 24757 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 69.0}
|
| 24758 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 65.0}
|
| 24759 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 94.35, "spread": 3.66, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.1, "icon_seamless": 94.3, "gem_seamless": 92.7, "ukmo_seamless": 96.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 97.8, "jma_seamless": 88.2, "graphcast": 90.3}}
|
| 24760 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 77.14, "spread": 2.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 78.2, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 78.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 77.3, "graphcast": 76.2}}
|
| 24761 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 94.34, "spread": 3.58, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.1, "icon_seamless": 95.8, "gem_seamless": 94.3, "ukmo_seamless": 95.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 98.8, "jma_seamless": 87.6, "graphcast": 90.7}}
|
| 24762 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 76.17, "spread": 3.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 77.0, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 78.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.4, "jma_seamless": 76.7, "graphcast": 75.4}}
|
| 24763 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 94.45, "spread": 2.83, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.8, "icon_seamless": 95.6, "gem_seamless": 95.4, "ukmo_seamless": 94.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 98.5, "jma_seamless": 89.7, "graphcast": 90.9}}
|
| 24764 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.31, "spread": 2.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.8, "icon_seamless": 77.8, "gem_seamless": 73.4, "ukmo_seamless": 78.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.4, "jma_seamless": 77.2, "graphcast": 75.8}}
|
| 24765 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 93.71, "spread": 2.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 93.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 93.4, "icon_seamless": 95.9, "gem_seamless": 94.3, "ukmo_seamless": 93.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 98.8, "jma_seamless": 90.4, "graphcast": 89.7}}
|
| 24766 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.2, "spread": 2.68, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.7, "icon_seamless": 79.4, "gem_seamless": 72.6, "ukmo_seamless": 77.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 81.6, "jma_seamless": 78.1, "graphcast": 76.1}}
|
| 24767 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 93.34, "spread": 2.67, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.4, "icon_seamless": 93.1, "gem_seamless": 92.1, "ukmo_seamless": 95.5, "jma_seamless": 91.0, "graphcast": 89.5}}
|
| 24768 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 76.03, "spread": 2.55, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 77.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.4, "icon_seamless": 75.7, "gem_seamless": 71.2, "ukmo_seamless": 75.7, "jma_seamless": 79.7, "graphcast": 76.1}}
|
| 24769 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 93.4, "spread": 2.46, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.5, "icon_seamless": 94.4, "gem_seamless": 92.0, "ukmo_seamless": 92.5, "jma_seamless": 91.5, "graphcast": 90.5}}
|
| 24770 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 74.16, "spread": 3.38, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.6, "icon_seamless": 73.0, "gem_seamless": 67.5, "ukmo_seamless": 73.0, "jma_seamless": 77.1, "graphcast": 76.5}}
|
| 24771 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 94.24, "spread": 3.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.8, "icon_seamless": 96.4, "gem_seamless": 89.5, "jma_seamless": 93.0}}
|
| 24772 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 75.32, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.3, "icon_seamless": 77.1, "gem_seamless": 71.0, "jma_seamless": 76.9}}
|
| 24773 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 94.0}
|
| 24774 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 75.0}
|
| 24775 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 91.51, "spread": 3.99, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 90.5, "icon_seamless": 92.4, "gem_seamless": 93.6, "ukmo_seamless": 96.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 87.7, "jma_seamless": 85.7, "graphcast": 89.1}}
|
| 24776 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 75.33, "spread": 2.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.4, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 71.1, "ukmo_seamless": 81.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.1, "jma_seamless": 76.8, "graphcast": 75.5}}
|
| 24777 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 90.59, "spread": 3.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 90.2, "icon_seamless": 93.3, "gem_seamless": 91.9, "ukmo_seamless": 94.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 91.0, "jma_seamless": 84.2, "graphcast": 85.2}}
|
| 24778 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 75.24, "spread": 2.37, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.1, "icon_seamless": 77.5, "gem_seamless": 71.8, "ukmo_seamless": 77.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.6, "jma_seamless": 75.0, "graphcast": 73.2}}
|
| 24779 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 92.16, "spread": 3.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.0, "icon_seamless": 92.6, "gem_seamless": 92.1, "ukmo_seamless": 95.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 93.2, "jma_seamless": 88.3, "graphcast": 87.2}}
|
| 24780 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 77.04, "spread": 3.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.5, "icon_seamless": 77.0, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 79.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 75.4, "graphcast": 73.3}}
|
| 24781 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 91.71, "spread": 4.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 97.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 90.5, "icon_seamless": 90.0, "gem_seamless": 91.1, "ukmo_seamless": 93.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 96.2, "jma_seamless": 90.6, "graphcast": 84.4}}
|
| 24782 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 77.15, "spread": 3.94, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.7, "icon_seamless": 71.9, "gem_seamless": 75.7, "ukmo_seamless": 79.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 83.1, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 73.2}}
|
| 24783 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 90.11, "spread": 3.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 94.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.0, "icon_seamless": 89.1, "gem_seamless": 90.5, "ukmo_seamless": 89.9, "jma_seamless": 91.8, "graphcast": 83.1}}
|
| 24784 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 73.31, "spread": 3.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.1, "icon_seamless": 68.5, "gem_seamless": 70.1, "ukmo_seamless": 77.8, "jma_seamless": 75.7, "graphcast": 70.0}}
|
| 24785 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 92.17, "spread": 3.21, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 96.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 95.2, "icon_seamless": 92.1, "gem_seamless": 91.4, "ukmo_seamless": 90.9, "jma_seamless": 92.2, "graphcast": 86.7}}
|
| 24786 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 73.16, "spread": 4.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.4, "icon_seamless": 69.3, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 75.9, "jma_seamless": 74.0, "graphcast": 71.8}}
|
| 24787 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 96.14, "spread": 1.97, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 95.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 97.4, "icon_seamless": 98.9, "gem_seamless": 94.1, "jma_seamless": 94.8}}
|
| 24788 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 76.66, "spread": 6.15, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.0, "icon_seamless": 74.7, "gem_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 79.7}}
|
| 24789 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 96.0}
|
| 24790 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 79.0}
|
| 24791 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 71.83, "spread": 1.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.8, "icon_seamless": 73.7, "gem_seamless": 73.2, "ukmo_seamless": 71.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.7, "jma_seamless": 69.6, "graphcast": 68.8}}
|
| 24792 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 51.86, "spread": 2.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 54.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 50.6, "icon_seamless": 50.8, "gem_seamless": 46.3, "ukmo_seamless": 51.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 54.5, "jma_seamless": 55.4, "graphcast": 50.9}}
|
| 24793 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.76, "spread": 3.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.7, "icon_seamless": 80.8, "gem_seamless": 82.0, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 80.1, "jma_seamless": 76.3, "graphcast": 71.5}}
|
| 24794 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 53.88, "spread": 2.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 52.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.1, "icon_seamless": 51.1, "gem_seamless": 50.0, "ukmo_seamless": 54.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.2, "jma_seamless": 58.7, "graphcast": 54.1}}
|
| 24795 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 75.16, "spread": 1.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.0, "icon_seamless": 75.6, "gem_seamless": 74.7, "ukmo_seamless": 74.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.5, "jma_seamless": 77.1, "graphcast": 72.1}}
|
| 24796 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 58.4, "spread": 3.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.0, "icon_seamless": 57.6, "gem_seamless": 52.1, "ukmo_seamless": 61.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.8, "jma_seamless": 63.9, "graphcast": 56.1}}
|
| 24797 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 73.45, "spread": 4.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.7, "icon_seamless": 77.2, "gem_seamless": 75.8, "ukmo_seamless": 76.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.3, "jma_seamless": 73.5, "graphcast": 68.4}}
|
| 24798 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 57.21, "spread": 2.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.3, "icon_seamless": 56.3, "gem_seamless": 53.8, "ukmo_seamless": 54.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.7, "jma_seamless": 61.2, "graphcast": 56.2}}
|
| 24799 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 75.6, "spread": 4.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.5, "icon_seamless": 72.5, "gem_seamless": 80.4, "ukmo_seamless": 77.7, "jma_seamless": 76.8, "graphcast": 68.3}}
|
| 24800 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 56.29, "spread": 3.87, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 51.4, "icon_seamless": 57.5, "gem_seamless": 52.3, "ukmo_seamless": 57.9, "jma_seamless": 62.3, "graphcast": 54.1}}
|
| 24801 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 78.04, "spread": 4.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.0, "icon_seamless": 72.7, "gem_seamless": 80.8, "ukmo_seamless": 73.5, "jma_seamless": 80.6, "graphcast": 75.3}}
|
| 24802 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 55.74, "spread": 3.43, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 59.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.9, "icon_seamless": 56.1, "gem_seamless": 50.3, "ukmo_seamless": 54.5, "jma_seamless": 60.5, "graphcast": 55.5}}
|
| 24803 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 81.36, "spread": 1.59, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.8, "icon_seamless": 80.4, "gem_seamless": 79.5, "jma_seamless": 81.4}}
|
| 24804 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 53.92, "spread": 6.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 56.6, "icon_seamless": 46.3, "gem_seamless": 48.8, "jma_seamless": 60.7}}
|
| 24805 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 74.0}
|
| 24806 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 49.0}
|
| 24807 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 78.0}
|
| 24808 |
+
{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-20", "value": 68.0}
|
| 24809 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 74.88, "spread": 3.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.8, "icon_seamless": 77.8, "gem_seamless": 76.8, "ukmo_seamless": 72.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.4, "jma_seamless": 73.1, "graphcast": 70.4}}
|
| 24810 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "lead": 0, "mean": 64.85, "spread": 2.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.8, "icon_seamless": 65.8, "gem_seamless": 58.2, "ukmo_seamless": 66.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.7, "jma_seamless": 66.1, "graphcast": 66.5}}
|
| 24811 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 74.88, "spread": 3.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.6, "icon_seamless": 77.7, "gem_seamless": 75.9, "ukmo_seamless": 71.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.6, "jma_seamless": 74.9, "graphcast": 70.0}}
|
| 24812 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "lead": 1, "mean": 63.36, "spread": 3.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 58.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.7, "icon_seamless": 61.6, "gem_seamless": 58.4, "ukmo_seamless": 67.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.8, "jma_seamless": 66.4, "graphcast": 65.9}}
|
| 24813 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 80.09, "spread": 6.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.7, "icon_seamless": 85.4, "gem_seamless": 81.8, "ukmo_seamless": 75.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.7, "jma_seamless": 79.2, "graphcast": 71.4}}
|
| 24814 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.56, "spread": 4.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.1, "icon_seamless": 64.8, "gem_seamless": 55.3, "ukmo_seamless": 65.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 65.7, "jma_seamless": 65.3, "graphcast": 65.9}}
|
| 24815 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.0, "spread": 5.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.4, "icon_seamless": 85.0, "gem_seamless": 77.5, "ukmo_seamless": 74.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.7, "jma_seamless": 77.9, "graphcast": 71.2}}
|
| 24816 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.89, "spread": 2.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.1, "icon_seamless": 68.1, "gem_seamless": 61.0, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.1, "jma_seamless": 66.2, "graphcast": 67.2}}
|
| 24817 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 80.06, "spread": 6.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 88.8, "icon_seamless": 84.0, "gem_seamless": 79.7, "ukmo_seamless": 72.4, "jma_seamless": 82.3, "graphcast": 72.3}}
|
| 24818 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.56, "spread": 2.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.4, "icon_seamless": 66.0, "gem_seamless": 63.1, "ukmo_seamless": 66.8, "jma_seamless": 65.5, "graphcast": 67.3}}
|
| 24819 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.87, "spread": 6.47, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 92.0, "icon_seamless": 84.3, "gem_seamless": 81.5, "ukmo_seamless": 72.5, "jma_seamless": 78.0, "graphcast": 75.1}}
|
| 24820 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.4, "spread": 2.49, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 65.4, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.1, "jma_seamless": 64.8, "graphcast": 68.3}}
|
| 24821 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 81.44, "spread": 3.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.1, "icon_seamless": 85.9, "gem_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 75.8}}
|
| 24822 |
+
{"type": "guidance", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "lead": 6, "mean": 66.02, "spread": 4.01, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.5, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 65.0}}
|
data/own-models.jsonl
CHANGED
|
@@ -2938,3 +2938,143 @@
|
|
| 2938 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
| 2939 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
| 2940 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
| 2938 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
| 2939 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
| 2940 |
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-21T02:21:40.948455+00:00"}
|
| 2941 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2942 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 60.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2943 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2944 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2945 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 64.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2946 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2947 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2948 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 52.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2949 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2950 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2951 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2952 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2953 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2954 |
+
{"station": "nyc", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2955 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2956 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2957 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 91.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2958 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2959 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2960 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2961 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 87.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2962 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2963 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 87.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2964 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2965 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2966 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2967 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2968 |
+
{"station": "aus", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2969 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2970 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2971 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 60.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2972 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2973 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 63.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2974 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2975 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2976 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2977 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2978 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 58.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2979 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2980 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2981 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2982 |
+
{"station": "chi", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 51.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2983 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 81.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2984 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2985 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 82.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2986 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2987 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 80.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2988 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2989 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2990 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2991 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 85.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2992 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2993 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2994 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2995 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2996 |
+
{"station": "mia", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2997 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2998 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 2999 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3000 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3001 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3002 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 66.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3003 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3004 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3005 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3006 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3007 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3008 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3009 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 77.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3010 |
+
{"station": "lax", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3011 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3012 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 64.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3013 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3014 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3015 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 64.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3016 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 55.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3017 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 65.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3018 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3019 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3020 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 53.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3021 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3022 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3023 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 72.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3024 |
+
{"station": "phl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 57.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3025 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3026 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 50.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3027 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3028 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3029 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 70.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3030 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3031 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 63.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3032 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 56.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3033 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 64.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3034 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3035 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3036 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3037 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3038 |
+
{"station": "den", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 54.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3039 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3040 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3041 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 85.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3042 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3043 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3044 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3045 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 82.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3046 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3047 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 81.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3048 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3049 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.2, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3050 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3051 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3052 |
+
{"station": "dal", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3053 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 86.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3054 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3055 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 84.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3056 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3057 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.7, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3058 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 69.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3059 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3060 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 62.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3061 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 71.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3062 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3063 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.1, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3064 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 59.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3065 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3066 |
+
{"station": "atl", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 61.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3067 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3068 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-21", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.0, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3069 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3070 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-22", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3071 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 90.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3072 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-23", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.5, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3073 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3074 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-24", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3075 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 88.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3076 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-25", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.4, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3077 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.3, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3078 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-26", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.8, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3079 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 89.6, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
| 3080 |
+
{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-09-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 75.9, "issued_at": "2026-09-22T00:52:11.281733+00:00"}
|
replay/lineage.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -3155,6 +3155,109 @@
|
|
| 3155 |
],
|
| 3156 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 3157 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3158 |
}
|
| 3159 |
]
|
| 3160 |
}
|
|
|
|
| 3155 |
],
|
| 3156 |
"promoted": null,
|
| 3157 |
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 3158 |
+
},
|
| 3159 |
+
{
|
| 3160 |
+
"ts": "2026-09-21T12:00:05.585135+00:00",
|
| 3161 |
+
"operator": "decision",
|
| 3162 |
+
"rows": 2262,
|
| 3163 |
+
"rollback": "",
|
| 3164 |
+
"candidates": [
|
| 3165 |
+
{
|
| 3166 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3167 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.12,
|
| 3168 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.75,
|
| 3169 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3170 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3171 |
+
},
|
| 3172 |
+
"proposer": "llm",
|
| 3173 |
+
"rationale": "Negative expectancy (-$60/trade) and poor Brier (0.385) indicate model deviations are misdirected; increasing market weight dampens noise while maintaining a strict edge threshold to avoid fee drag.",
|
| 3174 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3175 |
+
"n": 6,
|
| 3176 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 3177 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.155,
|
| 3178 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.9299999999999999,
|
| 3179 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.14922548280541048,
|
| 3180 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 3181 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.155,
|
| 3182 |
+
"fees": 0.07
|
| 3183 |
+
},
|
| 3184 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3185 |
+
"n": 1,
|
| 3186 |
+
"win_rate": 0.0,
|
| 3187 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.09999999999999999,
|
| 3188 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.09999999999999999,
|
| 3189 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.12095403273432954,
|
| 3190 |
+
"avg_win": 0.0,
|
| 3191 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.09999999999999999,
|
| 3192 |
+
"fees": 0.01
|
| 3193 |
+
},
|
| 3194 |
+
"verdict": "held-in n=6 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
|
| 3195 |
+
},
|
| 3196 |
+
{
|
| 3197 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3198 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.1188,
|
| 3199 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.558,
|
| 3200 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3201 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3202 |
+
},
|
| 3203 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 3204 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 3205 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3206 |
+
"n": 172,
|
| 3207 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3313953488372093,
|
| 3208 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.022209302325581416,
|
| 3209 |
+
"total_pnl": -3.820000000000004,
|
| 3210 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.15535956609842885,
|
| 3211 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5866666666666668,
|
| 3212 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3240000000000001,
|
| 3213 |
+
"fees": 3.2000000000000006
|
| 3214 |
+
},
|
| 3215 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3216 |
+
"n": 25,
|
| 3217 |
+
"win_rate": 0.36,
|
| 3218 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": 0.023599999999999968,
|
| 3219 |
+
"total_pnl": 0.5899999999999992,
|
| 3220 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.169780599700735,
|
| 3221 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5966666666666666,
|
| 3222 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.29874999999999996,
|
| 3223 |
+
"fees": 0.46000000000000013
|
| 3224 |
+
},
|
| 3225 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-0.09 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3226 |
+
},
|
| 3227 |
+
{
|
| 3228 |
+
"params": {
|
| 3229 |
+
"risk.min_edge": 0.15,
|
| 3230 |
+
"risk.market_prior_weight": 0.5308,
|
| 3231 |
+
"weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
|
| 3232 |
+
"forecast_prompt": "default"
|
| 3233 |
+
},
|
| 3234 |
+
"proposer": "random",
|
| 3235 |
+
"rationale": "archive mutation",
|
| 3236 |
+
"held_in": {
|
| 3237 |
+
"n": 104,
|
| 3238 |
+
"win_rate": 0.25961538461538464,
|
| 3239 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.07298076923076925,
|
| 3240 |
+
"total_pnl": -7.590000000000002,
|
| 3241 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.18456346723781916,
|
| 3242 |
+
"avg_win": 0.6025925925925927,
|
| 3243 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3098701298701298,
|
| 3244 |
+
"fees": 1.9400000000000013
|
| 3245 |
+
},
|
| 3246 |
+
"held_out": {
|
| 3247 |
+
"n": 21,
|
| 3248 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
|
| 3249 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.0023809523809524068,
|
| 3250 |
+
"total_pnl": -0.050000000000000544,
|
| 3251 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.18977244662309667,
|
| 3252 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5971428571428571,
|
| 3253 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.30214285714285716,
|
| 3254 |
+
"fees": 0.39000000000000007
|
| 3255 |
+
},
|
| 3256 |
+
"verdict": "held-in gain $-3.86 < $0.50 margin"
|
| 3257 |
+
}
|
| 3258 |
+
],
|
| 3259 |
+
"promoted": null,
|
| 3260 |
+
"reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
|
| 3261 |
}
|
| 3262 |
]
|
| 3263 |
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,773 @@
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"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl",
|
| 666 |
+
"digest": "fab68a65d97e3ff5",
|
| 667 |
+
"rows": 3523,
|
| 668 |
+
"paired_rows": 3523,
|
| 669 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 670 |
+
"n": 736,
|
| 671 |
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"win_rate": 0.3804347826086957,
|
| 672 |
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"pnl_per_contract": -0.020910326086956522,
|
| 673 |
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"total_pnl": -15.39,
|
| 674 |
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"avg_edge_priced": 0.13637071339367765,
|
| 675 |
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"avg_win": 0.49878571428571405,
|
| 676 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3400219298245615,
|
| 677 |
+
"fees": 13.249999999999801,
|
| 678 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 679 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.200000000000017,
|
| 680 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.226323529411765,
|
| 681 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.548596769164896,
|
| 682 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.14614748908059091,
|
| 683 |
+
"t_stat": -1.20516306879616,
|
| 684 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 685 |
+
-0.053221476510067096,
|
| 686 |
+
0.01115226337448558
|
| 687 |
+
]
|
| 688 |
+
},
|
| 689 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 690 |
+
"n": 672,
|
| 691 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3705357142857143,
|
| 692 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03296130952380949,
|
| 693 |
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"total_pnl": -22.149999999999977,
|
| 694 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.136545985607646,
|
| 695 |
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"avg_win": 0.5190763052208833,
|
| 696 |
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"avg_loss": -0.3579196217494091,
|
| 697 |
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"fees": 12.289999999999823,
|
| 698 |
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"days": 68,
|
| 699 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.70000000000001,
|
| 700 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3257352941176472,
|
| 701 |
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"daily_sd": 1.5019751336221634,
|
| 702 |
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"daily_sharpe": -0.21687129621920165,
|
| 703 |
+
"t_stat": -1.788366522952769,
|
| 704 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 705 |
+
-0.0685064011379801,
|
| 706 |
+
0.0009806835066864627
|
| 707 |
+
]
|
| 708 |
+
},
|
| 709 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1640927275996692,
|
| 710 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631051544663284
|
| 711 |
+
}
|
| 712 |
+
},
|
| 713 |
+
"simulation": [
|
| 714 |
+
{
|
| 715 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 716 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 717 |
+
"final": 786.43,
|
| 718 |
+
"return": -0.2136,
|
| 719 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2214,
|
| 720 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 721 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 722 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 723 |
+
"edge": 582
|
| 724 |
+
},
|
| 725 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 726 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 221.38
|
| 727 |
+
},
|
| 728 |
+
{
|
| 729 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 730 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 731 |
+
"final": 0.03,
|
| 732 |
+
"return": -1.0,
|
| 733 |
+
"max_drawdown": 1.0,
|
| 734 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 735 |
+
"entered": 41,
|
| 736 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 737 |
+
"edge": 582,
|
| 738 |
+
"cash": 49
|
| 739 |
+
},
|
| 740 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 741 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1010.88
|
| 742 |
+
},
|
| 743 |
+
{
|
| 744 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 745 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 746 |
+
"final": 119.82,
|
| 747 |
+
"return": -0.8802,
|
| 748 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.947,
|
| 749 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 750 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 751 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 752 |
+
"edge": 582
|
| 753 |
+
},
|
| 754 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 755 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 969.98
|
| 756 |
+
},
|
| 757 |
+
{
|
| 758 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 759 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 760 |
+
"final": 823.33,
|
| 761 |
+
"return": -0.1767,
|
| 762 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1767,
|
| 763 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 764 |
+
"entered": 4,
|
| 765 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 766 |
+
"edge": 32,
|
| 767 |
+
"kill-switch": 636
|
| 768 |
+
},
|
| 769 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-19",
|
| 770 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 176.67
|
| 771 |
+
}
|
| 772 |
+
]
|
| 773 |
+
}
|
replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,224 @@
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|
| 1 |
+
# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-15', '2026-09-20'] · 3523 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
## E1 ablation
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
|
| 6 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 7 |
+
| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1559 | 38% | -0.039 | [-0.057, -0.021] | -60.31 | 62.06 | -4.14 |
|
| 8 |
+
| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1486 | 36% | -0.041 | [-0.060, -0.022] | -61.66 | 62.48 | -4.21 |
|
| 9 |
+
| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 672 | 37% | -0.033 | [-0.069, +0.001] | -22.15 | 26.70 | -1.79 |
|
| 10 |
+
| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 668 | 38% | -0.034 | [-0.068, +0.000] | -22.41 | 26.33 | -1.85 |
|
| 11 |
+
|
| 12 |
+
## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
|
| 15 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 16 |
+
| 0.00 | -0.041 (2146) | -0.043 (1937) | -0.042 (1708) | -0.041 (1486) | -0.043 (1306) | -0.038 (1142) | -0.034 (910) | -0.031 (612) |
|
| 17 |
+
| 0.25 | -0.041 (1978) | -0.039 (1673) | -0.042 (1392) | -0.039 (1172) | -0.037 (952) | -0.039 (789) | -0.027 (568) | -0.050 (335) |
|
| 18 |
+
| 0.50 | -0.038 (1590) | -0.040 (1228) | -0.032 (917) | -0.033 (672) | -0.033 (483) | -0.053 (353) | -0.054 (221) | -0.140 (69) |
|
| 19 |
+
| 0.75 | -0.037 (825) | -0.042 (423) | -0.052 (231) | -0.160 (91) | -0.132 (35) | -0.119 (15) | +0.035 (6) | — |
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
## E6 by station
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 24 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 25 |
+
| atl | 58 | 38% | -0.096 | -5.55 |
|
| 26 |
+
| aus | 117 | 28% | -0.082 | -9.54 |
|
| 27 |
+
| chi | 57 | 51% | +0.107 | +6.09 |
|
| 28 |
+
| dal | 73 | 36% | -0.027 | -1.96 |
|
| 29 |
+
| den | 79 | 39% | -0.091 | -7.20 |
|
| 30 |
+
| lax | 77 | 38% | -0.020 | -1.52 |
|
| 31 |
+
| mia | 61 | 39% | +0.033 | +2.01 |
|
| 32 |
+
| nyc | 67 | 33% | -0.037 | -2.48 |
|
| 33 |
+
| phl | 53 | 34% | -0.073 | -3.86 |
|
| 34 |
+
| sat | 30 | 50% | +0.062 | +1.86 |
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## E6 by week
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 39 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 40 |
+
| 2026-W29 | 44 | 27% | -0.129 | -5.66 |
|
| 41 |
+
| 2026-W30 | 57 | 47% | +0.074 | +4.24 |
|
| 42 |
+
| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
|
| 43 |
+
| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
|
| 44 |
+
| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
|
| 45 |
+
| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
|
| 46 |
+
| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
|
| 47 |
+
| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
|
| 48 |
+
| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
|
| 49 |
+
| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
## E6 by kind
|
| 52 |
+
|
| 53 |
+
| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
|
| 54 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 55 |
+
| high | 593 | 38% | -0.037 | -22.07 |
|
| 56 |
+
| low | 79 | 33% | -0.001 | -0.08 |
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
## sources
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
```json
|
| 61 |
+
{
|
| 62 |
+
"nbm": {
|
| 63 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl",
|
| 64 |
+
"digest": "0befc54ac1a4823e",
|
| 65 |
+
"rows": 3523,
|
| 66 |
+
"paired_rows": 3523,
|
| 67 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 68 |
+
"n": 690,
|
| 69 |
+
"win_rate": 0.32608695652173914,
|
| 70 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.05376811594202906,
|
| 71 |
+
"total_pnl": -37.10000000000005,
|
| 72 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13091518349033474,
|
| 73 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5183111111111107,
|
| 74 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.33058064516129043,
|
| 75 |
+
"fees": 12.229999999999823,
|
| 76 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 77 |
+
"max_drawdown": 41.08000000000001,
|
| 78 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.5455882352941178,
|
| 79 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.3762184640365236,
|
| 80 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.3964401361785816,
|
| 81 |
+
"t_stat": -3.2691291113970826,
|
| 82 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 83 |
+
-0.08775297619047621,
|
| 84 |
+
-0.02122708039492244
|
| 85 |
+
]
|
| 86 |
+
},
|
| 87 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 88 |
+
"n": 672,
|
| 89 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3705357142857143,
|
| 90 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03296130952380949,
|
| 91 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.149999999999977,
|
| 92 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.136545985607646,
|
| 93 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5190763052208833,
|
| 94 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579196217494091,
|
| 95 |
+
"fees": 12.289999999999823,
|
| 96 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 97 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.70000000000001,
|
| 98 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3257352941176472,
|
| 99 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.5019751336221634,
|
| 100 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21687129621920165,
|
| 101 |
+
"t_stat": -1.788366522952769,
|
| 102 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 103 |
+
-0.0685064011379801,
|
| 104 |
+
0.0009806835066864627
|
| 105 |
+
]
|
| 106 |
+
},
|
| 107 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1624274344203281,
|
| 108 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631051544663284
|
| 109 |
+
},
|
| 110 |
+
"gfsmos": {
|
| 111 |
+
"path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl",
|
| 112 |
+
"digest": "fab68a65d97e3ff5",
|
| 113 |
+
"rows": 3523,
|
| 114 |
+
"paired_rows": 3523,
|
| 115 |
+
"this_source": {
|
| 116 |
+
"n": 736,
|
| 117 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3804347826086957,
|
| 118 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.020910326086956522,
|
| 119 |
+
"total_pnl": -15.39,
|
| 120 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.13637071339367765,
|
| 121 |
+
"avg_win": 0.49878571428571405,
|
| 122 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3400219298245615,
|
| 123 |
+
"fees": 13.249999999999801,
|
| 124 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 125 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.200000000000017,
|
| 126 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.226323529411765,
|
| 127 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.548596769164896,
|
| 128 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.14614748908059091,
|
| 129 |
+
"t_stat": -1.20516306879616,
|
| 130 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 131 |
+
-0.053221476510067096,
|
| 132 |
+
0.01115226337448558
|
| 133 |
+
]
|
| 134 |
+
},
|
| 135 |
+
"consensus_on_same_rows": {
|
| 136 |
+
"n": 672,
|
| 137 |
+
"win_rate": 0.3705357142857143,
|
| 138 |
+
"pnl_per_contract": -0.03296130952380949,
|
| 139 |
+
"total_pnl": -22.149999999999977,
|
| 140 |
+
"avg_edge_priced": 0.136545985607646,
|
| 141 |
+
"avg_win": 0.5190763052208833,
|
| 142 |
+
"avg_loss": -0.3579196217494091,
|
| 143 |
+
"fees": 12.289999999999823,
|
| 144 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 145 |
+
"max_drawdown": 26.70000000000001,
|
| 146 |
+
"daily_mean": -0.3257352941176472,
|
| 147 |
+
"daily_sd": 1.5019751336221634,
|
| 148 |
+
"daily_sharpe": -0.21687129621920165,
|
| 149 |
+
"t_stat": -1.788366522952769,
|
| 150 |
+
"ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
|
| 151 |
+
-0.0685064011379801,
|
| 152 |
+
0.0009806835066864627
|
| 153 |
+
]
|
| 154 |
+
},
|
| 155 |
+
"brier_source": 0.1640927275996692,
|
| 156 |
+
"brier_consensus": 0.1631051544663284
|
| 157 |
+
}
|
| 158 |
+
}
|
| 159 |
+
```
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
## simulation
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
```json
|
| 164 |
+
[
|
| 165 |
+
{
|
| 166 |
+
"variant": "flat",
|
| 167 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 168 |
+
"final": 786.43,
|
| 169 |
+
"return": -0.2136,
|
| 170 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.2214,
|
| 171 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 172 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 173 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 174 |
+
"edge": 582
|
| 175 |
+
},
|
| 176 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 177 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 221.38
|
| 178 |
+
},
|
| 179 |
+
{
|
| 180 |
+
"variant": "kelly",
|
| 181 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 182 |
+
"final": 0.03,
|
| 183 |
+
"return": -1.0,
|
| 184 |
+
"max_drawdown": 1.0,
|
| 185 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 186 |
+
"entered": 41,
|
| 187 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 188 |
+
"edge": 582,
|
| 189 |
+
"cash": 49
|
| 190 |
+
},
|
| 191 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 192 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 1010.88
|
| 193 |
+
},
|
| 194 |
+
{
|
| 195 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps",
|
| 196 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 197 |
+
"final": 119.82,
|
| 198 |
+
"return": -0.8802,
|
| 199 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.947,
|
| 200 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 201 |
+
"entered": 90,
|
| 202 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 203 |
+
"edge": 582
|
| 204 |
+
},
|
| 205 |
+
"halted_on": null,
|
| 206 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 969.98
|
| 207 |
+
},
|
| 208 |
+
{
|
| 209 |
+
"variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
|
| 210 |
+
"bankroll": 1000.0,
|
| 211 |
+
"final": 823.33,
|
| 212 |
+
"return": -0.1767,
|
| 213 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0.1767,
|
| 214 |
+
"days": 68,
|
| 215 |
+
"entered": 4,
|
| 216 |
+
"rejected": {
|
| 217 |
+
"edge": 32,
|
| 218 |
+
"kill-switch": 636
|
| 219 |
+
},
|
| 220 |
+
"halted_on": "2026-07-19",
|
| 221 |
+
"daily_pnl_max_dd": 176.67
|
| 222 |
+
}
|
| 223 |
+
]
|
| 224 |
+
```
|
replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
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|
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|
|
|
replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|
replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-21.jsonl
ADDED
|
The diff for this file is too large to render.
See raw diff
|
|
|