forecasts @ 6 files, 268 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 28,902 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 29,022 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 5,600 |
 | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,296 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,989 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,780 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,780 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,800 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,800 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -139,6 +139,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -202,6 +204,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -249,6 +252,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -299,6 +303,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-25.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-26.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-27.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2778,3 +2778,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 53.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 41.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 48.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2778,3 +2778,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "runtime": "2026-10-26T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 41.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 47.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 46.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "runtime": "2026-10-27T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -28900,3 +28900,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-26", "lead": 4, "mean": 61.87, "spread": 2.38, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.5, "icon_seamless": 61.8, "gem_seamless": 59.0, "ukmo_seamless": 62.0, "jma_seamless": 65.9}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.27, "spread": 1.85, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.8, "icon_seamless": 81.5, "gem_seamless": 80.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "jma_seamless": 77.3}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-26", "lead": 5, "mean": 62.53, "spread": 2.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.9, "icon_seamless": 62.0, "gem_seamless": 58.9, "ukmo_seamless": 61.6, "jma_seamless": 66.9}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 61.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 52.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 84.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 75.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 74.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 50.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 83.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 69.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 54.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 82.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 65.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 83.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 64.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 66.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 50.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 64.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 37.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 75.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 1, "mean": 72.21, "spread": 1.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.3, "icon_seamless": 72.7, "gem_seamless": 70.0, "ukmo_seamless": 69.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.1, "jma_seamless": 72.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 1, "mean": 48.16, "spread": 2.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 49.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 46.7, "icon_seamless": 48.4, "gem_seamless": 44.8, "ukmo_seamless": 52.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 48.3, "jma_seamless": 46.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 2, "mean": 72.89, "spread": 2.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.6, "icon_seamless": 73.2, "gem_seamless": 70.5, "ukmo_seamless": 69.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.8, "jma_seamless": 73.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 2, "mean": 48.83, "spread": 4.24, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 47.1, "icon_seamless": 47.2, "gem_seamless": 44.2, "ukmo_seamless": 53.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 47.9, "jma_seamless": 46.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 3, "mean": 73.1, "spread": 1.95, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.7, "icon_seamless": 73.4, "gem_seamless": 71.4, "ukmo_seamless": 70.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.6, "jma_seamless": 73.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 3, "mean": 48.7, "spread": 4.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 46.5, "icon_seamless": 46.3, "gem_seamless": 43.4, "ukmo_seamless": 52.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 50.5, "jma_seamless": 45.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 4, "mean": 72.9, "spread": 2.2, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 76.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.2, "icon_seamless": 72.4, "gem_seamless": 71.9, "ukmo_seamless": 70.2, "jma_seamless": 74.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 4, "mean": 47.65, "spread": 5.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 46.0, "icon_seamless": 43.0, "gem_seamless": 42.3, "ukmo_seamless": 52.1, "jma_seamless": 47.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 72.77, "spread": 2.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 75.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.2, "icon_seamless": 72.5, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 69.5, "jma_seamless": 75.2}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 5, "mean": 48.75, "spread": 3.9, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 46.6, "icon_seamless": 45.8, "gem_seamless": 44.8, "ukmo_seamless": 51.6, "jma_seamless": 48.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 1, "mean": 77.4, "spread": 2.84, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.4, "icon_seamless": 74.6, "gem_seamless": 78.6, "ukmo_seamless": 80.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.1, "jma_seamless": 73.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 1, "mean": 65.43, "spread": 2.14, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.2, "icon_seamless": 64.4, "gem_seamless": 64.0, "ukmo_seamless": 64.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.6, "jma_seamless": 69.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 2, "mean": 80.51, "spread": 2.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.1, "icon_seamless": 81.0, "gem_seamless": 78.8, "ukmo_seamless": 82.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.9, "jma_seamless": 78.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.46, "spread": 2.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.8, "icon_seamless": 60.6, "gem_seamless": 64.4, "ukmo_seamless": 62.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.1, "jma_seamless": 67.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 3, "mean": 80.54, "spread": 3.32, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 83.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 79.2, "icon_seamless": 83.7, "gem_seamless": 82.1, "ukmo_seamless": 76.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.9, "jma_seamless": 76.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 3, "mean": 65.63, "spread": 3.89, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 67.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.7, "icon_seamless": 58.9, "gem_seamless": 63.0, "ukmo_seamless": 66.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.8, "jma_seamless": 68.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 4, "mean": 79.65, "spread": 3.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.1, "icon_seamless": 85.3, "gem_seamless": 81.6, "ukmo_seamless": 80.2, "jma_seamless": 75.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "lead": 4, "mean": 63.35, "spread": 2.34, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.6, "icon_seamless": 61.7, "gem_seamless": 60.7, "ukmo_seamless": 64.2, "jma_seamless": 67.4}}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.json

@@ -0,0 +1,784 @@
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+  "atl": {
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+   "win_rate": 0.4406779661016949,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.02796610169491523,
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+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14024875903549508,
+   "avg_win": 0.5599999999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3912121212121213,
+   "fees": 1.1600000000000006
+  },
+  "aus": {
+   "n": 123,
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+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.06178861788617889,
+   "total_pnl": -7.600000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14857840185340448,
+   "avg_win": 0.5203030303030303,
+   "avg_loss": -0.27522222222222215,
+   "fees": 2.050000000000001
+  },
+  "chi": {
+   "n": 76,
+   "win_rate": 0.3815789473684211,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.003289473684210554,
+   "total_pnl": -0.2500000000000021,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13573981202142757,
+   "avg_win": 0.5003448275862068,
+   "avg_loss": -0.31404255319148944,
+   "fees": 1.350000000000001
+  },
+  "dal": {
+   "n": 80,
+   "win_rate": 0.275,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08375000000000003,
+   "total_pnl": -6.700000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15593250834143743,
+   "avg_win": 0.5363636363636364,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3189655172413794,
+   "fees": 1.4200000000000008
+  },
+  "den": {
+   "n": 77,
+   "win_rate": 0.3246753246753247,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11077922077922074,
+   "total_pnl": -8.529999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14443184054295177,
+   "avg_win": 0.4748000000000001,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3923076923076923,
+   "fees": 1.4300000000000008
+  },
+  "lax": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.08699999999999997,
+   "total_pnl": 6.089999999999997,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.16825734271656545,
+   "avg_win": 0.5590625,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3105263157894737,
+   "fees": 1.2400000000000007
+  },
+  "mia": {
+   "n": 65,
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+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02076923076923079,
+   "total_pnl": -1.3500000000000014,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12203000987351015,
+   "avg_win": 0.5,
+   "avg_loss": -0.28720930232558145,
+   "fees": 1.1500000000000008
+  },
+  "nyc": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.2571428571428571,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08642857142857144,
+   "total_pnl": -6.050000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13664252051607487,
+   "avg_win": 0.5427777777777778,
+   "avg_loss": -0.30423076923076925,
+   "fees": 1.2000000000000006
+  },
+  "phl": {
+   "n": 53,
+   "win_rate": 0.33962264150943394,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03037735849056604,
+   "total_pnl": -1.61,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13133271138259095,
+   "avg_win": 0.5605555555555556,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33428571428571435,
+   "fees": 0.9500000000000005
+  },
+  "sat": {
+   "n": 19,
+   "win_rate": 0.3157894736842105,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.033157894736842115,
+   "total_pnl": -0.6300000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12204109759989075,
+   "avg_win": 0.5316666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2938461538461539,
+   "fees": 0.32
+  }
+ },
+ "by_week": {
+  "2026-W34": {
+   "n": 30,
+   "win_rate": 0.4666666666666667,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.058666666666666645,
+   "total_pnl": 1.7599999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13045734825169772,
+   "avg_win": 0.5057142857142857,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3325,
+   "fees": 0.5400000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W35": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
+   "total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
+   "avg_win": 0.51375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3214,
+   "fees": 1.290000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W36": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.28125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
+   "total_pnl": -7.63,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
+   "avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
+   "fees": 1.1700000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W37": {
+   "n": 72,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
+   "total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1328749530169296,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
+   "fees": 1.3300000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W38": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030714285714285694,
+   "total_pnl": 2.1499999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14105623371560858,
+   "avg_win": 0.5213333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33724999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.260000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W39": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.42028985507246375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03550724637681158,
+   "total_pnl": 2.4499999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1489168003396218,
+   "avg_win": 0.5231034482758621,
+   "avg_loss": -0.318,
+   "fees": 1.2200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W40": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030156249999999978,
+   "total_pnl": 1.9299999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13475419136359762,
+   "avg_win": 0.5570833333333333,
+   "avg_loss": -0.286,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W41": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.25675675675675674,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.12337837837837841,
+   "total_pnl": -9.130000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14337954287726956,
+   "avg_win": 0.5173684210526316,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3447272727272728,
+   "fees": 1.3600000000000008
+  },
+  "2026-W42": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.24242424242424243,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.09181818181818188,
+   "total_pnl": -6.060000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15550431439278883,
+   "avg_win": 0.49249999999999994,
+   "avg_loss": -0.27879999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.1100000000000005
+  },
+  "2026-W43": {
+   "n": 85,
+   "win_rate": 0.2823529411764706,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05070588235294114,
+   "total_pnl": -4.309999999999997,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14715235227870493,
+   "avg_win": 0.5629166666666666,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2921311475409836,
+   "fees": 1.490000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W44": {
+   "n": 24,
+   "win_rate": 0.25,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.030000000000000002,
+   "total_pnl": -0.7200000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.17487944034205283,
+   "avg_win": 0.5633333333333334,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2277777777777778,
+   "fees": 0.4200000000000001
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 626,
+   "win_rate": 0.3498402555910543,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.030926517571884977,
+   "total_pnl": -19.359999999999996,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1455874026234173,
+   "avg_win": 0.5294063926940641,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3324324324324322,
+   "fees": 11.309999999999844
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.18181818181818182,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08515151515151517,
+   "total_pnl": -5.620000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1193718166256481,
+   "avg_win": 0.4925,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2135185185185185,
+   "fees": 0.9600000000000006
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl",
+  "digest": "856f927e7cd7ce24"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-29T10:53:28",
+ "sources": {
+  "nbm": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl",
+   "digest": "0fb2cdd7edaee774",
+   "rows": 3202,
+   "paired_rows": 3202,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 698,
+    "win_rate": 0.32664756446991405,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03626074498567337,
+    "total_pnl": -25.31000000000001,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1443100740489524,
+    "avg_win": 0.528157894736842,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3100638297872337,
+    "fees": 12.249999999999822,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 27.78000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.37220588235294133,
+    "daily_sd": 1.317134888759979,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.28258752048042385,
+    "t_stat": -2.3302763908443627,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06606811145510838,
+     -0.005501474926253695
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 692,
+    "win_rate": 0.3338150289017341,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03609826589595376,
+    "total_pnl": -24.98,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14308707216698277,
+    "avg_win": 0.5274891774891776,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3185032537960952,
+    "fees": 12.269999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 27.01000000000002,
+    "daily_mean": -0.3673529411764709,
+    "daily_sd": 1.3137897985474465,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.27961317828972637,
+    "t_stat": -2.30574933680641,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06477037037037035,
+     -0.005557163531114346
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.1664344142367175,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16295413715076523
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl",
+   "digest": "4cef595bb09fd2c9",
+   "rows": 3202,
+   "paired_rows": 3202,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 755,
+    "win_rate": 0.36688741721854307,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.022198675496688743,
+    "total_pnl": -16.76,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14821636964984408,
+    "avg_win": 0.5156678700361013,
+    "avg_loss": -0.33389121338912126,
+    "fees": 13.549999999999796,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.790000000000006,
+    "daily_mean": -0.2464705882352943,
+    "daily_sd": 1.6322640303558977,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.15099921559966864,
+    "t_stat": -1.2451714306056956,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.056166007905138315,
+     0.013666666666666653
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 692,
+    "win_rate": 0.3338150289017341,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03609826589595376,
+    "total_pnl": -24.98,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14308707216698277,
+    "avg_win": 0.5274891774891776,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3185032537960952,
+    "fees": 12.269999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 27.01000000000002,
+    "daily_mean": -0.3673529411764709,
+    "daily_sd": 1.3137897985474465,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.27961317828972637,
+    "t_stat": -2.30574933680641,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06477037037037035,
+     -0.005557163531114346
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16853250259407282,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16295413715076523
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 342.89,
+   "return": -0.6571,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.6897,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 168,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 524
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 761.99
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 65,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 524,
+    "cash": 103
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1278.98
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.04,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 78,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 524,
+    "cash": 90
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1298.74
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 1066.0,
+   "return": 0.066,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.1792,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 19,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 85,
+    "kill-switch": 588
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-31",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 232.78
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-21', '2026-10-27'] · 3202 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1468 | 37% | -0.035 | [-0.052, -0.019] | -51.59 | 52.37 | -4.03 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1387 | 33% | -0.047 | [-0.067, -0.027] | -65.88 | 67.34 | -4.66 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 692 | 33% | -0.036 | [-0.065, -0.006] | -24.98 | 27.01 | -2.31 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.195 | 0.00 | True | 668 | 34% | -0.040 | [-0.070, -0.007] | -26.49 | 28.75 | -2.42 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.046 (1906) | -0.046 (1749) | -0.045 (1550) | -0.047 (1387) | -0.043 (1228) | -0.043 (1088) | -0.033 (898) | -0.037 (643) |
+| 0.25 | -0.045 (1775) | -0.046 (1522) | -0.046 (1306) | -0.039 (1127) | -0.033 (927) | -0.037 (792) | -0.030 (596) | -0.039 (394) |
+| 0.50 | -0.045 (1471) | -0.042 (1163) | -0.027 (906) | -0.036 (692) | -0.033 (523) | -0.042 (413) | -0.044 (268) | -0.114 (87) |
+| 0.75 | -0.035 (831) | -0.036 (473) | -0.045 (274) | -0.124 (112) | -0.163 (45) | -0.082 (20) | -0.097 (6) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 44% | +0.028 | +1.65 |
+| aus | 123 | 27% | -0.062 | -7.60 |
+| chi | 76 | 38% | -0.003 | -0.25 |
+| dal | 80 | 28% | -0.084 | -6.70 |
+| den | 77 | 32% | -0.111 | -8.53 |
+| lax | 70 | 46% | +0.087 | +6.09 |
+| mia | 65 | 34% | -0.021 | -1.35 |
+| nyc | 70 | 26% | -0.086 | -6.05 |
+| phl | 53 | 34% | -0.030 | -1.61 |
+| sat | 19 | 32% | -0.033 | -0.63 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W34 | 30 | 47% | +0.059 | +1.76 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 74 | 26% | -0.123 | -9.13 |
+| 2026-W42 | 66 | 24% | -0.092 | -6.06 |
+| 2026-W43 | 85 | 28% | -0.051 | -4.31 |
+| 2026-W44 | 24 | 25% | -0.030 | -0.72 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 626 | 35% | -0.031 | -19.36 |
+| low | 66 | 18% | -0.085 | -5.62 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl",
+  "digest": "0fb2cdd7edaee774",
+  "rows": 3202,
+  "paired_rows": 3202,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 698,
+   "win_rate": 0.32664756446991405,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03626074498567337,
+   "total_pnl": -25.31000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1443100740489524,
+   "avg_win": 0.528157894736842,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3100638297872337,
+   "fees": 12.249999999999822,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.78000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.37220588235294133,
+   "daily_sd": 1.317134888759979,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.28258752048042385,
+   "t_stat": -2.3302763908443627,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06606811145510838,
+    -0.005501474926253695
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 692,
+   "win_rate": 0.3338150289017341,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03609826589595376,
+   "total_pnl": -24.98,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14308707216698277,
+   "avg_win": 0.5274891774891776,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3185032537960952,
+   "fees": 12.269999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.01000000000002,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3673529411764709,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3137897985474465,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.27961317828972637,
+   "t_stat": -2.30574933680641,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06477037037037035,
+    -0.005557163531114346
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.1664344142367175,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16295413715076523
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-28.jsonl",
+  "digest": "4cef595bb09fd2c9",
+  "rows": 3202,
+  "paired_rows": 3202,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 755,
+   "win_rate": 0.36688741721854307,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.022198675496688743,
+   "total_pnl": -16.76,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14821636964984408,
+   "avg_win": 0.5156678700361013,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33389121338912126,
+   "fees": 13.549999999999796,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.790000000000006,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2464705882352943,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6322640303558977,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.15099921559966864,
+   "t_stat": -1.2451714306056956,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.056166007905138315,
+    0.013666666666666653
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 692,
+   "win_rate": 0.3338150289017341,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03609826589595376,
+   "total_pnl": -24.98,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14308707216698277,
+   "avg_win": 0.5274891774891776,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3185032537960952,
+   "fees": 12.269999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.01000000000002,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3673529411764709,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3137897985474465,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.27961317828972637,
+   "t_stat": -2.30574933680641,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06477037037037035,
+    -0.005557163531114346
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16853250259407282,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16295413715076523
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 342.89,
+  "return": -0.6571,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.6897,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 168,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 524
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 761.99
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 65,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 524,
+   "cash": 103
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1278.98
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.04,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 78,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 524,
+   "cash": 90
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1298.74
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 1066.0,
+  "return": 0.066,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1792,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 19,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 85,
+   "kill-switch": 588
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-31",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 232.78
+ }
+]
+```