forecasts @ 6 files, 236 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 28,182 |
-| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 4,900 |
-| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,295 |
-| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,335 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,660 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,660 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 28,302 |
+| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 5,040 |
+| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,290 |
+| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,597 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,680 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,680 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -127,6 +127,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -182,6 +184,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -223,6 +226,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -267,6 +271,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-19.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-20.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-21.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2658,3 +2658,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 47.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 44.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2658,3 +2658,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 50.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "runtime": "2026-10-20T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 53.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 47.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-22", "runtime": "2026-10-21T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}

data/gencast-spread.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"issued_at": "2026-10-20T02:09:25.773935+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.26, "1": 1.43, "2": 1.78, "3": 1.63, "4": 1.97, "5": 2.91, "6": 3.71}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.7, "low": 1.1}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.13, "low": 0.97}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 2.28, "low": 1.31}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.48, "low": 2.31}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 3.04, "low": 1.39}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.96, "low": 1.89}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.49, "low": 3.69}}, "aus": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.61, "low": 0.66}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.35, "low": 1.7}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 1.78, "low": 1.91}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.06, "low": 1.64}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.63, "low": 3.22}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 4.81, "low": 2.36}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.73, "low": 4.6}}, "chi": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.28, "low": 1.16}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.88, "low": 1.36}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 1.48, "low": 1.15}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.93, "low": 2.31}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.67, "low": 1.67}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.25, "low": 3.74}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 2.77, "low": 5.28}}, "mia": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 0.58, "low": 0.47}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.22, "low": 1.03}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 0.57, "low": 0.57}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.17, "low": 1.03}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 0.92, "low": 1.34}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 1.19, "low": 1.28}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.24, "low": 2.06}}, "lax": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.62, "low": 1.93}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.49, "low": 1.72}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 2.63, "low": 2.54}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.62, "low": 1.57}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.67, "low": 1.66}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 3.47, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.76, "low": 1.3}}, "phl": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.24, "low": 0.95}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 2.2, "low": 0.89}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 2.41, "low": 1.68}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.89}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.84, "low": 0.66}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.87, "low": 2.38}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.16, "low": 4.34}}, "den": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.79, "low": 1.77}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.56, "low": 2.29}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 4.4, "low": 2.29}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 3.05, "low": 1.96}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.41, "low": 3.5}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 3.87, "low": 1.91}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 2.49, "low": 2.35}}, "dal": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 2.26, "low": 0.96}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 2.52, "low": 1.07}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 0.69, "low": 1.39}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.25, "low": 1.54}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.62, "low": 1.63}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 3.13, "low": 4.43}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.92, "low": 5.27}}, "atl": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.33, "low": 0.94}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.24, "low": 2.52}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 3.36, "low": 1.74}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.49, "low": 2.63}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.42, "low": 2.27}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.98, "low": 4.35}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.47, "low": 8.07}}, "sat": {"2026-10-14": {"high": 1.61, "low": 0.66}, "2026-10-15": {"high": 1.35, "low": 1.7}, "2026-10-16": {"high": 1.78, "low": 1.91}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.06, "low": 1.64}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.63, "low": 3.22}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 4.81, "low": 2.36}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.73, "low": 4.6}}}}
+{"issued_at": "2026-10-23T01:21:21.087559+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.2, "1": 1.29, "2": 1.66, "3": 2.12, "4": 2.55, "5": 2.79, "6": 3.09}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.6, "low": 1.29}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.27, "low": 0.9}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.86, "low": 1.71}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.09, "low": 2.59}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.89, "low": 3.03}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 3.07, "low": 2.15}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.85, "low": 2.45}}, "aus": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.2, "low": 1.09}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.15, "low": 1.31}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.61, "low": 1.3}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.12, "low": 2.27}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.93, "low": 2.55}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 1.58, "low": 4.1}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.59, "low": 4.99}}, "chi": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 0.53, "low": 0.68}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 0.91, "low": 2.14}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.74, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.59, "low": 2.42}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 3.22, "low": 2.93}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 3.22, "low": 4.19}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 4.46, "low": 6.2}}, "mia": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 0.74, "low": 0.94}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.1, "low": 0.93}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 0.96, "low": 0.85}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 1.23, "low": 1.22}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.24, "low": 1.29}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 1.65, "low": 1.8}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 1.36, "low": 2.65}}, "lax": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.76, "low": 2.38}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.56, "low": 2.09}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.18, "low": 2.62}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 1.54, "low": 1.11}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 2.19, "low": 2.55}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 3.81, "low": 3.21}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.0, "low": 2.42}}, "phl": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.21, "low": 0.83}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.37, "low": 2.12}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.98, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.05, "low": 3.79}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 2.31, "low": 3.74}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 2.77, "low": 2.81}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 4.05, "low": 3.35}}, "den": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 2.82, "low": 1.81}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 0.98, "low": 3.31}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 3.77, "low": 2.34}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.23, "low": 1.89}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.8, "low": 2.59}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 2.43, "low": 2.0}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.67, "low": 3.22}}, "dal": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.39, "low": 0.76}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.1, "low": 0.95}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.13, "low": 1.04}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 1.39, "low": 2.85}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.82, "low": 2.65}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 2.59, "low": 3.75}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 3.51, "low": 4.99}}, "atl": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 2.93, "low": 0.92}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.92, "low": 1.98}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 2.44, "low": 1.71}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.07, "low": 4.43}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 2.65, "low": 4.83}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 2.54, "low": 3.12}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.96, "low": 3.81}}, "sat": {"2026-10-16": {"high": 1.2, "low": 1.09}, "2026-10-17": {"high": 1.15, "low": 1.31}, "2026-10-18": {"high": 1.61, "low": 1.3}, "2026-10-19": {"high": 2.12, "low": 2.27}, "2026-10-20": {"high": 1.93, "low": 2.55}, "2026-10-21": {"high": 1.58, "low": 4.1}, "2026-10-22": {"high": 2.59, "low": 4.99}}}}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -28180,3 +28180,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-20", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.35, "spread": 4.69, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 60.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.3, "icon_seamless": 57.6, "gem_seamless": 48.1, "ukmo_seamless": 58.1, "jma_seamless": 60.7}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-20", "lead": 5, "mean": 79.48, "spread": 2.16, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.9, "icon_seamless": 81.8, "gem_seamless": 76.5, "ukmo_seamless": 78.2, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-20", "lead": 5, "mean": 58.42, "spread": 4.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 64.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.2, "icon_seamless": 57.3, "gem_seamless": 52.0, "ukmo_seamless": 55.7, "jma_seamless": 58.8}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "value": 67.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "value": 48.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-21", "value": 62.0}
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data/own-models.jsonl

@@ -4898,3 +4898,143 @@
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+{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 73.3, "issued_at": "2026-10-23T01:31:51.468854+00:00"}
+{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-10-27", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.7, "issued_at": "2026-10-23T01:31:51.468854+00:00"}
+{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "kind": "high", "model": "graphcast", "value": 76.4, "issued_at": "2026-10-23T01:31:51.468854+00:00"}
+{"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-10-28", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 67.7, "issued_at": "2026-10-23T01:31:51.468854+00:00"}

replay/lineage.json

@@ -5554,6 +5554,150 @@
    ],
    "promoted": null,
    "reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
+  },
+  {
+   "ts": "2026-10-22T14:50:30.327001+00:00",
+   "operator": "decision",
+   "rows": 2042,
+   "rollback": "",
+   "candidates": [
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.15,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.8,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Win rate 15% is below ~16.9% breakeven and Brier 0.305 is worse than coin flip, so require max edge and lean more on market price.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 0
+     },
+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 0
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=0 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.15,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.7,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Tighten edge to the hard max to cut marginal trades; modestly raise market weight given poor model calibration.",
+     "held_in": {
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+      "avg_win": 0.7,
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+      "fees": 0.09999999999999999
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+     "held_out": {
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+      "avg_win": 0.0,
+      "avg_loss": -0.10800000000000003,
+      "fees": 0.05
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=8 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
+     "params": {
+      "risk.min_edge": 0.12,
+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.8,
+      "weather_anchor_delta": 0.15,
+      "forecast_prompt": "default"
+     },
+     "proposer": "llm",
+     "rationale": "Keep champion edge threshold but increase market prior to 0.8 because Brier 0.305 and negative replay suggest model probabilities are unreliable.",
+     "held_in": {
+      "n": 0
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+     "held_out": {
+      "n": 2,
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+     },
+     "verdict": "held-in n=0 < 20: not enough trades to trust"
+    },
+    {
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+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6318,
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+     "proposer": "random",
+     "rationale": "archive mutation",
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+     "verdict": "held-in gain $-3.29 < $0.50 margin"
+    },
+    {
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+      "risk.market_prior_weight": 0.6115,
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+     "proposer": "random",
+     "rationale": "archive mutation",
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+      "fees": 2.3400000000000007
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+     "held_out": {
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+      "total_pnl": -3.4700000000000015,
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+      "avg_win": 0.5879999999999999,
+      "avg_loss": -0.2564,
+      "fees": 0.49000000000000016
+     },
+     "verdict": "held-out regression $0.47 > $0.25 tolerance"
+    }
+   ],
+   "promoted": null,
+   "reason": "no candidate cleared the gate; champion holds"
   }
  ]
 }

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.json

@@ -0,0 +1,784 @@
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+   "avg_loss": -0.3225714285714286,
+   "fees": 1.2000000000000006
+  },
+  "mia": {
+   "n": 61,
+   "win_rate": 0.3770491803278688,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.012131147540983581,
+   "total_pnl": 0.7399999999999984,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12111782637547654,
+   "avg_win": 0.5008695652173912,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2836842105263159,
+   "fees": 1.0700000000000005
+  },
+  "nyc": {
+   "n": 67,
+   "win_rate": 0.2537313432835821,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.09402985074626868,
+   "total_pnl": -6.300000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1346913520377436,
+   "avg_win": 0.5547058823529412,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3146000000000001,
+   "fees": 1.1500000000000008
+  },
+  "phl": {
+   "n": 48,
+   "win_rate": 0.3125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.06645833333333334,
+   "total_pnl": -3.1900000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1283439655925734,
+   "avg_win": 0.502,
+   "avg_loss": -0.32484848484848494,
+   "fees": 0.8500000000000005
+  },
+  "sat": {
+   "n": 21,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.024761904761904742,
+   "total_pnl": 0.5199999999999996,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11880353845144392,
+   "avg_win": 0.5177777777777777,
+   "avg_loss": -0.345,
+   "fees": 0.3800000000000001
+  }
+ },
+ "by_week": {
+  "2026-W33": {
+   "n": 10,
+   "win_rate": 0.1,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.251,
+   "total_pnl": -2.5100000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14375662596784922,
+   "avg_win": 0.25,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3066666666666667,
+   "fees": 0.18
+  },
+  "2026-W34": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.05242857142857142,
+   "total_pnl": 3.6699999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13471800521779553,
+   "avg_win": 0.5459375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3631578947368422,
+   "fees": 1.2700000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W35": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
+   "total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
+   "avg_win": 0.51375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3214,
+   "fees": 1.290000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W36": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.28125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
+   "total_pnl": -7.63,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
+   "avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
+   "fees": 1.1700000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W37": {
+   "n": 72,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
+   "total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13287495301692961,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
+   "fees": 1.3300000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W38": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030714285714285694,
+   "total_pnl": 2.1499999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14105623371560858,
+   "avg_win": 0.5213333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33724999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.260000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W39": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.42028985507246375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03550724637681158,
+   "total_pnl": 2.4499999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1489168003396218,
+   "avg_win": 0.5231034482758621,
+   "avg_loss": -0.318,
+   "fees": 1.2200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W40": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030156249999999978,
+   "total_pnl": 1.9299999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13475419136359762,
+   "avg_win": 0.5570833333333333,
+   "avg_loss": -0.286,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W41": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.25675675675675674,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.12337837837837841,
+   "total_pnl": -9.130000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14337954287726956,
+   "avg_win": 0.5173684210526316,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3447272727272728,
+   "fees": 1.3600000000000008
+  },
+  "2026-W42": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.24242424242424243,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.09181818181818188,
+   "total_pnl": -6.060000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15550431439278886,
+   "avg_win": 0.49249999999999994,
+   "avg_loss": -0.27879999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.1100000000000005
+  },
+  "2026-W43": {
+   "n": 34,
+   "win_rate": 0.29411764705882354,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08529411764705881,
+   "total_pnl": -2.8999999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14240965783397122,
+   "avg_win": 0.5279999999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3408333333333333,
+   "fees": 0.6200000000000003
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 601,
+   "win_rate": 0.3560732113144759,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03289517470881862,
+   "total_pnl": -19.769999999999992,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14384965934641294,
+   "avg_win": 0.5283177570093457,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3432299741602065,
+   "fees": 10.899999999999853
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.24242424242424243,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.055757575757575784,
+   "total_pnl": -3.6800000000000015,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1159634349119236,
+   "avg_win": 0.4887499999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.23000000000000004,
+   "fees": 0.9900000000000005
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl",
+  "digest": "63754a17eb905d1f"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-23T10:52:07",
+ "sources": {
+  "nbm": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl",
+   "digest": "a7385acabd8b50a0",
+   "rows": 3216,
+   "paired_rows": 3216,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 677,
+    "win_rate": 0.33382570162481534,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03579025110782867,
+    "total_pnl": -24.23000000000001,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14125455193304817,
+    "avg_win": 0.5250884955752211,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3168514412416849,
+    "fees": 11.90999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.79000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.3616417910447763,
+    "daily_sd": 1.360192273635367,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.2658754927920751,
+    "t_stat": -2.1762847018985654,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06657856093979439,
+     -0.0035051546391752708
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 667,
+    "win_rate": 0.3448275862068966,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03515742128935534,
+    "total_pnl": -23.45000000000001,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1410903028056688,
+    "avg_win": 0.5255652173913042,
+    "avg_loss": -0.330274599542334,
+    "fees": 11.88999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 27.660000000000018,
+    "daily_mean": -0.35000000000000026,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4459284529011425,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.24205900319462736,
+    "t_stat": -1.9813383327558254,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06973886328725039,
+     -0.0012656250000000146
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16554719030301354,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16260768070995255
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl",
+   "digest": "c41b1bf88cd8f709",
+   "rows": 3216,
+   "paired_rows": 3216,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 734,
+    "win_rate": 0.3787465940054496,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.017833787465940068,
+    "total_pnl": -13.09000000000001,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14450050648135196,
+    "avg_win": 0.51,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3396271929824561,
+    "fees": 13.209999999999804,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 20.1,
+    "daily_mean": -0.1953731343283584,
+    "daily_sd": 1.6904709119401564,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.11557320090419557,
+    "t_stat": -0.9460074203753288,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.052890094979647244,
+     0.020322580645161265
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 667,
+    "win_rate": 0.3448275862068966,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03515742128935534,
+    "total_pnl": -23.45000000000001,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1410903028056688,
+    "avg_win": 0.5255652173913042,
+    "avg_loss": -0.330274599542334,
+    "fees": 11.88999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 27.660000000000018,
+    "daily_mean": -0.35000000000000026,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4459284529011425,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.24205900319462736,
+    "t_stat": -1.9813383327558254,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06973886328725039,
+     -0.0012656250000000146
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16679256027166203,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16260768070995255
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 612.57,
+   "return": -0.3874,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.5166,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 146,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 521
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 625.1
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.01,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 95,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 521,
+    "cash": 51
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1887.13
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.04,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 108,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 521,
+    "cash": 38
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1717.18
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 820.49,
+   "return": -0.1795,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.1795,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 5,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 5,
+    "kill-switch": 657
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-17",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 179.51
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-16', '2026-10-21'] · 3216 rows · 67 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1475 | 37% | -0.034 | [-0.052, -0.015] | -50.39 | 50.96 | -3.55 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1385 | 33% | -0.047 | [-0.069, -0.026] | -65.28 | 65.28 | -4.26 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 667 | 34% | -0.035 | [-0.070, -0.001] | -23.45 | 27.66 | -1.98 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 666 | 35% | -0.037 | [-0.070, -0.003] | -24.31 | 29.29 | -2.09 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.044 (1917) | -0.044 (1755) | -0.045 (1553) | -0.047 (1385) | -0.042 (1225) | -0.042 (1075) | -0.035 (883) | -0.033 (618) |
+| 0.25 | -0.043 (1785) | -0.045 (1523) | -0.046 (1302) | -0.039 (1116) | -0.034 (911) | -0.037 (774) | -0.023 (572) | -0.030 (372) |
+| 0.50 | -0.045 (1466) | -0.042 (1154) | -0.029 (890) | -0.035 (667) | -0.024 (500) | -0.032 (388) | -0.025 (252) | -0.112 (75) |
+| 0.75 | -0.037 (802) | -0.025 (443) | -0.031 (256) | -0.117 (100) | -0.164 (37) | -0.075 (16) | -0.102 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 57 | 40% | -0.015 | -0.83 |
+| aus | 119 | 28% | -0.068 | -8.09 |
+| chi | 67 | 40% | +0.000 | +0.03 |
+| dal | 78 | 29% | -0.070 | -5.44 |
+| den | 82 | 34% | -0.095 | -7.79 |
+| lax | 67 | 48% | +0.103 | +6.90 |
+| mia | 61 | 38% | +0.012 | +0.74 |
+| nyc | 67 | 25% | -0.094 | -6.30 |
+| phl | 48 | 31% | -0.066 | -3.19 |
+| sat | 21 | 43% | +0.025 | +0.52 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W33 | 10 | 10% | -0.251 | -2.51 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 74 | 26% | -0.123 | -9.13 |
+| 2026-W42 | 66 | 24% | -0.092 | -6.06 |
+| 2026-W43 | 34 | 29% | -0.085 | -2.90 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 601 | 36% | -0.033 | -19.77 |
+| low | 66 | 24% | -0.056 | -3.68 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl",
+  "digest": "a7385acabd8b50a0",
+  "rows": 3216,
+  "paired_rows": 3216,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 677,
+   "win_rate": 0.33382570162481534,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03579025110782867,
+   "total_pnl": -24.23000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14125455193304817,
+   "avg_win": 0.5250884955752211,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3168514412416849,
+   "fees": 11.90999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.79000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3616417910447763,
+   "daily_sd": 1.360192273635367,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.2658754927920751,
+   "t_stat": -2.1762847018985654,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06657856093979439,
+    -0.0035051546391752708
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 667,
+   "win_rate": 0.3448275862068966,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03515742128935534,
+   "total_pnl": -23.45000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1410903028056688,
+   "avg_win": 0.5255652173913042,
+   "avg_loss": -0.330274599542334,
+   "fees": 11.88999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.660000000000018,
+   "daily_mean": -0.35000000000000026,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4459284529011425,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.24205900319462736,
+   "t_stat": -1.9813383327558254,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06973886328725039,
+    -0.0012656250000000146
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16554719030301354,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16260768070995255
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-22.jsonl",
+  "digest": "c41b1bf88cd8f709",
+  "rows": 3216,
+  "paired_rows": 3216,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 734,
+   "win_rate": 0.3787465940054496,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.017833787465940068,
+   "total_pnl": -13.09000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14450050648135196,
+   "avg_win": 0.51,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3396271929824561,
+   "fees": 13.209999999999804,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 20.1,
+   "daily_mean": -0.1953731343283584,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6904709119401564,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.11557320090419557,
+   "t_stat": -0.9460074203753288,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.052890094979647244,
+    0.020322580645161265
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 667,
+   "win_rate": 0.3448275862068966,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03515742128935534,
+   "total_pnl": -23.45000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1410903028056688,
+   "avg_win": 0.5255652173913042,
+   "avg_loss": -0.330274599542334,
+   "fees": 11.88999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.660000000000018,
+   "daily_mean": -0.35000000000000026,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4459284529011425,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.24205900319462736,
+   "t_stat": -1.9813383327558254,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06973886328725039,
+    -0.0012656250000000146
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16679256027166203,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16260768070995255
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 612.57,
+  "return": -0.3874,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.5166,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 146,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 521
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 625.1
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.01,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 95,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 521,
+   "cash": 51
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1887.13
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.04,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 108,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 521,
+   "cash": 38
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1717.18
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 820.49,
+  "return": -0.1795,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1795,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 5,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 5,
+   "kill-switch": 657
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-17",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 179.51
+ }
+]
+```