forecasts @ 6 files, 179 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,882 |
-| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 4,060 |
-| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,293 |
-| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,464 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,440 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,440 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,982 |
+| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 4,200 |
+| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,289 |
+| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,220 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,460 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,460 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -105,6 +105,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -147,6 +149,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -177,6 +180,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -210,6 +214,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-09.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2438,3 +2438,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 69.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 82.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2438,3 +2438,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "runtime": "2026-10-09T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 63.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 82.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 69.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "runtime": "2026-10-10T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}

data/gencast-spread.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"issued_at": "2026-10-11T16:03:30.012286+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.23, "1": 1.22, "2": 2.0, "3": 1.57, "4": 2.15, "5": 2.68, "6": 3.92}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 0.98, "low": 1.07}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.0, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.65, "low": 1.36}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.48, "low": 1.42}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.76, "low": 1.67}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.32, "low": 1.85}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.98, "low": 2.53}}, "aus": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.32, "low": 0.68}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.02, "low": 1.54}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.04, "low": 1.79}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.08, "low": 1.07}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.52, "low": 2.22}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.15, "low": 3.16}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.8, "low": 3.91}}, "chi": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.31, "low": 1.25}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.42, "low": 1.7}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 3.13, "low": 2.25}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.65, "low": 2.46}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.87, "low": 3.22}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.91, "low": 2.4}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 6.25, "low": 4.09}}, "mia": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 0.52, "low": 0.44}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.66, "low": 0.47}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 0.56, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.63, "low": 1.5}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 0.97, "low": 0.85}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.22, "low": 1.56}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 0.98, "low": 1.24}}, "lax": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.6, "low": 1.62}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.78, "low": 1.75}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.72, "low": 1.98}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.99, "low": 0.97}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 3.97, "low": 1.73}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 6.05, "low": 2.46}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 7.13, "low": 2.39}}, "phl": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 0.65, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 2.4, "low": 0.62}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.45, "low": 2.02}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.32, "low": 1.6}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.8, "low": 1.81}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.29, "low": 3.23}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.32, "low": 2.71}}, "den": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 2.61, "low": 1.22}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.97, "low": 2.78}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 5.58, "low": 2.5}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.75, "low": 1.86}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.69, "low": 2.95}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 4.92, "low": 3.05}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.85, "low": 3.92}}, "dal": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.73, "low": 0.92}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.59, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.31, "low": 1.64}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.6, "low": 2.67}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.66, "low": 2.07}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.17, "low": 1.87}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.91, "low": 3.84}}, "atl": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.84, "low": 0.85}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.79, "low": 1.63}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.11, "low": 1.14}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.54, "low": 0.76}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 3.02, "low": 1.59}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 4.39, "low": 3.79}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 5.23, "low": 3.19}}, "sat": {"2026-10-05": {"high": 1.32, "low": 0.68}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.02, "low": 1.54}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.04, "low": 1.79}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.08, "low": 1.07}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.52, "low": 2.22}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.15, "low": 3.16}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.8, "low": 3.91}}}}
+{"issued_at": "2026-10-12T00:23:26.555910+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.15, "1": 1.23, "2": 1.82, "3": 1.76, "4": 2.25, "5": 2.9, "6": 3.29}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.62, "low": 0.86}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.44, "low": 1.21}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.0, "low": 1.25}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.5, "low": 2.53}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.13, "low": 1.95}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.74, "low": 2.44}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 3.78, "low": 3.55}}, "aus": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.36, "low": 0.92}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.06, "low": 1.08}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.06, "low": 1.61}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 0.99, "low": 0.99}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.28, "low": 2.25}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.56, "low": 4.78}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 4.65, "low": 3.29}}, "chi": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.18, "low": 1.0}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.58, "low": 1.21}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.7, "low": 1.78}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.74, "low": 4.19}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.48, "low": 2.31}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.68, "low": 5.28}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 7.22, "low": 4.94}}, "mia": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 0.57, "low": 1.12}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 0.99, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 0.99, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.44, "low": 1.43}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 0.81, "low": 1.37}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.31, "low": 1.3}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.62}}, "lax": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.7, "low": 1.56}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.14, "low": 1.8}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.17, "low": 1.98}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.7, "low": 1.16}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.45, "low": 2.01}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.65, "low": 1.29}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.92, "low": 1.61}}, "phl": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 0.85, "low": 0.8}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.28, "low": 1.08}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.93, "low": 1.75}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.92, "low": 2.68}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.7, "low": 2.53}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.65, "low": 2.93}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.16, "low": 3.27}}, "den": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 2.96, "low": 1.43}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.1, "low": 3.78}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 5.34, "low": 2.44}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.64, "low": 1.87}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.56, "low": 3.0}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 8.44, "low": 2.9}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 8.05, "low": 4.59}}, "dal": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.64, "low": 0.97}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.52, "low": 1.74}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.85, "low": 2.14}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.39, "low": 2.63}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.88, "low": 3.21}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.9, "low": 4.4}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 3.32, "low": 3.28}}, "atl": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.35, "low": 0.97}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.74, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.24, "low": 1.62}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.79, "low": 1.82}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 4.74, "low": 2.18}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.43, "low": 2.51}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.54, "low": 2.29}}, "sat": {"2026-10-06": {"high": 1.36, "low": 0.92}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.06, "low": 1.08}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.06, "low": 1.61}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 0.99, "low": 0.99}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.28, "low": 2.25}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.56, "low": 4.78}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 4.65, "low": 3.29}}}}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -26880,3 +26880,103 @@
 {"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "value": 59.0}
 {"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "value": 79.0}
 {"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "value": 68.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "lead": 1, "mean": 70.73, "spread": 2.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.4, "icon_seamless": 69.6, "gem_seamless": 69.9, "ukmo_seamless": 68.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.6, "jma_seamless": 73.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-10", "lead": 1, "mean": 60.56, "spread": 1.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 59.2, "icon_seamless": 61.5, "gem_seamless": 59.9, "ukmo_seamless": 59.7, "meteofrance_seamless": 61.8, "jma_seamless": 59.7}}
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data/own-models.jsonl

@@ -4058,3 +4058,143 @@
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.json

@@ -0,0 +1,775 @@
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+    "daily_mean": -0.436029411764706,
+    "daily_sd": 1.37145433179405,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.3179321408349922,
+    "t_stat": -2.621735596882845,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.07575037147102529,
+     -0.010293255131964822
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 682,
+    "win_rate": 0.3563049853372434,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03319648093841637,
+    "total_pnl": -22.639999999999965,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13950979385456738,
+    "avg_win": 0.5223456790123455,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3407061503416858,
+    "fees": 12.279999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.050000000000008,
+    "daily_mean": -0.33294117647058835,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4347687512705578,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.23205215208078142,
+    "t_stat": -1.9135510673619098,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06554131054131054,
+     0.0006442166910687945
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16424501104166767,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16314083359870085
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl",
+   "digest": "3828b9eb004ed4ed",
+   "rows": 3386,
+   "paired_rows": 3386,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 745,
+    "win_rate": 0.37986577181208053,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.02063087248322148,
+    "total_pnl": -15.370000000000003,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14099552494558906,
+    "avg_win": 0.5048056537102472,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3424891774891773,
+    "fees": 13.449999999999797,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 19.840000000000003,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22602941176470606,
+    "daily_sd": 1.6382864543738145,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.13796696613175563,
+    "t_stat": -1.1377047484144858,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.055827538247566075,
+     0.015660621761658014
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 682,
+    "win_rate": 0.3563049853372434,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03319648093841637,
+    "total_pnl": -22.639999999999965,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13950979385456738,
+    "avg_win": 0.5223456790123455,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3407061503416858,
+    "fees": 12.279999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.050000000000008,
+    "daily_mean": -0.33294117647058835,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4347687512705578,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.23205215208078142,
+    "t_stat": -1.9135510673619098,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06554131054131054,
+     0.0006442166910687945
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16602904181318423,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16314083359870085
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 588.15,
+   "return": -0.4118,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.4427,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 142,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 540
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 465.39
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 38,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 103,
+    "cash": 3,
+    "kill-switch": 538
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-18",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1000.0
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.01,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 100,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 540,
+    "cash": 42
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 999.99
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 759.31,
+   "return": -0.2407,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.2407,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 6,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 20,
+    "kill-switch": 656
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 240.69
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-04', '2026-10-10'] · 3386 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1537 | 37% | -0.036 | [-0.053, -0.018] | -55.63 | 55.98 | -4.13 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1450 | 35% | -0.043 | [-0.062, -0.023] | -62.40 | 62.73 | -4.25 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 682 | 36% | -0.033 | [-0.066, +0.001] | -22.64 | 23.05 | -1.91 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 682 | 36% | -0.037 | [-0.070, -0.002] | -25.03 | 25.44 | -2.11 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.042 (2030) | -0.043 (1853) | -0.041 (1633) | -0.043 (1450) | -0.038 (1279) | -0.035 (1122) | -0.033 (920) | -0.034 (633) |
+| 0.25 | -0.042 (1890) | -0.040 (1601) | -0.041 (1358) | -0.034 (1162) | -0.031 (946) | -0.035 (803) | -0.031 (584) | -0.040 (364) |
+| 0.50 | -0.040 (1531) | -0.037 (1208) | -0.027 (922) | -0.033 (682) | -0.031 (502) | -0.046 (380) | -0.037 (244) | -0.145 (78) |
+| 0.75 | -0.034 (826) | -0.032 (442) | -0.034 (252) | -0.153 (101) | -0.205 (39) | -0.109 (17) | -0.115 (4) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 44% | -0.011 | -0.67 |
+| aus | 124 | 30% | -0.040 | -4.94 |
+| chi | 60 | 43% | +0.011 | +0.69 |
+| dal | 77 | 29% | -0.079 | -6.10 |
+| den | 78 | 36% | -0.091 | -7.11 |
+| lax | 78 | 40% | +0.026 | +1.99 |
+| mia | 62 | 40% | +0.020 | +1.27 |
+| nyc | 69 | 33% | -0.026 | -1.82 |
+| phl | 52 | 31% | -0.101 | -5.23 |
+| sat | 23 | 39% | -0.031 | -0.72 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W32 | 64 | 36% | -0.051 | -3.25 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 66 | 23% | -0.158 | -10.41 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 607 | 37% | -0.033 | -20.11 |
+| low | 75 | 27% | -0.034 | -2.53 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl",
+  "digest": "19d7e3cc1395aae5",
+  "rows": 3386,
+  "paired_rows": 3386,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 685,
+   "win_rate": 0.3284671532846715,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04328467153284668,
+   "total_pnl": -29.649999999999977,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13732954343534284,
+   "avg_win": 0.5211111111111107,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3193478260869566,
+   "fees": 12.069999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 30.160000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.436029411764706,
+   "daily_sd": 1.37145433179405,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.3179321408349922,
+   "t_stat": -2.621735596882845,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.07575037147102529,
+    -0.010293255131964822
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 682,
+   "win_rate": 0.3563049853372434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03319648093841637,
+   "total_pnl": -22.639999999999965,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13950979385456738,
+   "avg_win": 0.5223456790123455,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3407061503416858,
+   "fees": 12.279999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.050000000000008,
+   "daily_mean": -0.33294117647058835,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4347687512705578,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.23205215208078142,
+   "t_stat": -1.9135510673619098,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06554131054131054,
+    0.0006442166910687945
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16424501104166767,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16314083359870085
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl",
+  "digest": "3828b9eb004ed4ed",
+  "rows": 3386,
+  "paired_rows": 3386,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 745,
+   "win_rate": 0.37986577181208053,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02063087248322148,
+   "total_pnl": -15.370000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14099552494558906,
+   "avg_win": 0.5048056537102472,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3424891774891773,
+   "fees": 13.449999999999797,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 19.840000000000003,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22602941176470606,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6382864543738145,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.13796696613175563,
+   "t_stat": -1.1377047484144858,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.055827538247566075,
+    0.015660621761658014
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 682,
+   "win_rate": 0.3563049853372434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03319648093841637,
+   "total_pnl": -22.639999999999965,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13950979385456738,
+   "avg_win": 0.5223456790123455,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3407061503416858,
+   "fees": 12.279999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.050000000000008,
+   "daily_mean": -0.33294117647058835,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4347687512705578,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.23205215208078142,
+   "t_stat": -1.9135510673619098,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06554131054131054,
+    0.0006442166910687945
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16602904181318423,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16314083359870085
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 588.15,
+  "return": -0.4118,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.4427,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 142,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 540
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 465.39
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 38,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 103,
+   "cash": 3,
+   "kill-switch": 538
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-18",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1000.0
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.01,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 100,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 540,
+   "cash": 42
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 999.99
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 759.31,
+  "return": -0.2407,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.2407,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 6,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 20,
+   "kill-switch": 656
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 240.69
+ }
+]
+```