forecasts @ 6 files, 137 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 25,902 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,042 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,640 |
 | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,294 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,815 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,280 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,280 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,300 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,300 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -89,6 +89,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -97,6 +99,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-19.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-26.md`
+- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json`
+- `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -119,6 +123,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -141,6 +146,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -166,6 +172,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-01.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2278,3 +2278,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 96.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 69.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2278,3 +2278,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "runtime": "2026-10-01T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 82.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 52.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 82.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "runtime": "2026-10-02T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -25900,3 +25900,143 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-01", "lead": 4, "mean": 72.98, "spread": 4.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.8, "icon_seamless": 75.7, "gem_seamless": 71.7, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "jma_seamless": 76.9}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-01", "lead": 5, "mean": 86.68, "spread": 5.25, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 94.6, "icon_seamless": 83.7, "gem_seamless": 81.8, "ukmo_seamless": 90.8, "jma_seamless": 81.7}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-01", "lead": 5, "mean": 73.87, "spread": 2.92, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.9, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 71.0, "ukmo_seamless": 74.5, "jma_seamless": 77.0}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 87.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 66.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 83.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 68.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 88.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 81.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 84.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 70.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 79.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 74.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 65.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 55.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 80.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 71.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 80.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 72.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 81.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 50.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 87.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "value": 66.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 1, "mean": 84.4, "spread": 3.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 86.2, "icon_seamless": 85.2, "gem_seamless": 84.5, "ukmo_seamless": 80.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 87.5, "jma_seamless": 79.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 1, "mean": 68.69, "spread": 1.54, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.4, "icon_seamless": 66.4, "gem_seamless": 67.5, "ukmo_seamless": 69.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.8, "jma_seamless": 70.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 2, "mean": 86.34, "spread": 3.27, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 85.2, "icon_seamless": 86.0, "gem_seamless": 89.9, "ukmo_seamless": 81.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 89.4, "jma_seamless": 84.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 2, "mean": 69.31, "spread": 2.63, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.9, "icon_seamless": 65.6, "gem_seamless": 68.5, "ukmo_seamless": 70.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 70.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 3, "mean": 87.56, "spread": 2.22, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.9, "icon_seamless": 87.8, "gem_seamless": 89.3, "ukmo_seamless": 84.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 89.9, "jma_seamless": 84.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 3, "mean": 68.7, "spread": 2.1, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 68.0, "gem_seamless": 65.6, "ukmo_seamless": 71.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 68.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 4, "mean": 87.2, "spread": 1.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 89.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 88.6, "icon_seamless": 87.1, "gem_seamless": 87.5, "ukmo_seamless": 85.2, "jma_seamless": 85.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 4, "mean": 69.42, "spread": 2.35, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 68.6, "gem_seamless": 67.4, "ukmo_seamless": 70.1, "jma_seamless": 69.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 5, "mean": 83.57, "spread": 3.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 87.6, "icon_seamless": 79.5, "gem_seamless": 88.0, "ukmo_seamless": 84.8, "jma_seamless": 82.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.95, "spread": 1.6, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.3, "icon_seamless": 67.1, "gem_seamless": 66.4, "ukmo_seamless": 68.3, "jma_seamless": 69.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 1, "mean": 78.31, "spread": 1.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 75.0, "icon_seamless": 78.1, "gem_seamless": 77.6, "ukmo_seamless": 80.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.6, "jma_seamless": 77.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 1, "mean": 73.8, "spread": 0.98, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.9, "icon_seamless": 74.9, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 74.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.9, "jma_seamless": 74.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 2, "mean": 78.1, "spread": 0.77, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 76.9, "icon_seamless": 78.5, "gem_seamless": 78.6, "ukmo_seamless": 78.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.1, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 2, "mean": 73.49, "spread": 1.52, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.1, "icon_seamless": 75.2, "gem_seamless": 72.0, "ukmo_seamless": 74.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 72.0, "jma_seamless": 75.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 3, "mean": 82.37, "spread": 2.3, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 79.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 84.0, "icon_seamless": 84.4, "gem_seamless": 81.7, "ukmo_seamless": 85.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.5, "jma_seamless": 79.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-02", "lead": 3, "mean": 74.31, "spread": 2.12, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 74.2, "icon_seamless": 77.2, "gem_seamless": 71.9, "ukmo_seamless": 76.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 73.2, "jma_seamless": 75.9}}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json

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+   "fees": 0.47000000000000014
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+ "by_week": {
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+ "by_kind": {
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+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl",
+  "digest": "5f3bfc8a1c069272"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-04T10:50:08",
+ "sources": {
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+   "digest": "8ab416cff23ce526",
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+   "digest": "ccf64eb5fb9ed2eb",
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+ "simulation": [
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+   "variant": "flat",
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+   "final": 692.97,
+   "return": -0.307,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.3366,
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+   "entered": 96,
+   "rejected": {
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+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 351.63
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+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 87,
+   "rejected": {
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+    "cash": 9
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+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1281.42
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+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
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+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 89,
+   "rejected": {
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+    "cash": 7
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+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1231.86
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+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 1012.89,
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+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 10,
+   "rejected": {
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+    "kill-switch": 572
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+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 218.97
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md

@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-27', '2026-10-02'] · 3453 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1567 | 38% | -0.036 | [-0.054, -0.017] | -56.15 | 58.70 | -3.96 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1476 | 36% | -0.039 | [-0.059, -0.019] | -58.01 | 59.77 | -3.95 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 686 | 37% | -0.025 | [-0.059, +0.009] | -17.28 | 25.28 | -1.48 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 683 | 38% | -0.028 | [-0.061, +0.006] | -19.39 | 25.49 | -1.68 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.040 (2080) | -0.041 (1888) | -0.039 (1666) | -0.039 (1476) | -0.037 (1300) | -0.033 (1144) | -0.029 (926) | -0.025 (635) |
+| 0.25 | -0.040 (1932) | -0.037 (1635) | -0.039 (1384) | -0.033 (1179) | -0.030 (959) | -0.032 (806) | -0.022 (584) | -0.043 (362) |
+| 0.50 | -0.036 (1560) | -0.034 (1228) | -0.025 (931) | -0.025 (686) | -0.026 (507) | -0.046 (381) | -0.045 (238) | -0.124 (74) |
+| 0.75 | -0.030 (835) | -0.036 (449) | -0.044 (247) | -0.139 (95) | -0.174 (37) | -0.072 (19) | +0.076 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 47% | +0.008 | +0.49 |
+| aus | 126 | 29% | -0.055 | -6.90 |
+| chi | 56 | 48% | +0.083 | +4.67 |
+| dal | 77 | 31% | -0.063 | -4.82 |
+| den | 81 | 40% | -0.083 | -6.70 |
+| lax | 82 | 41% | +0.025 | +2.02 |
+| mia | 61 | 39% | +0.017 | +1.04 |
+| nyc | 70 | 31% | -0.049 | -3.42 |
+| phl | 49 | 35% | -0.080 | -3.92 |
+| sat | 25 | 44% | +0.010 | +0.26 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
+| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 46 | 37% | +0.022 | +1.00 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 607 | 39% | -0.025 | -15.06 |
+| low | 79 | 28% | -0.028 | -2.22 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl",
+  "digest": "8ab416cff23ce526",
+  "rows": 3453,
+  "paired_rows": 3453,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 673,
+   "win_rate": 0.33580980683506684,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04081723625557216,
+   "total_pnl": -27.470000000000063,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13469828727489827,
+   "avg_win": 0.521946902654867,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3253467561521256,
+   "fees": 11.909999999999828,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 36.99000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.40397058823529414,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3755597392105376,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.2936772404135216,
+   "t_stat": -2.4217245641297223,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.07373676248108928,
+    -0.00854676258992807
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 686,
+   "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+   "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+   "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+   "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+   "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05906069364161851,
+    0.008793363499245824
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16268585419753834,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16337390901144846
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl",
+  "digest": "ccf64eb5fb9ed2eb",
+  "rows": 3453,
+  "paired_rows": 3453,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 738,
+   "win_rate": 0.3902439024390244,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.013807588075880766,
+   "total_pnl": -10.190000000000005,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1391760457265716,
+   "avg_win": 0.501111111111111,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3433555555555556,
+   "fees": 13.3399999999998,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.73000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.14985294117647083,
+   "daily_sd": 1.5931780804296078,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.09405912811458107,
+   "t_stat": -0.775631440539843,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.04959124087591243,
+    0.02226190476190474
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 686,
+   "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+   "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+   "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+   "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+   "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05906069364161851,
+    0.008793363499245824
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.1644026345372002,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16337390901144846
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 692.97,
+  "return": -0.307,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.3366,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 96,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 590
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 351.63
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 87,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 590,
+   "cash": 9
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1281.42
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 89,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 590,
+   "cash": 7
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1231.86
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 1012.89,
+  "return": 0.0129,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1778,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 10,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 104,
+   "kill-switch": 572
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 218.97
+ }
+]
+```

replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.json

@@ -0,0 +1,781 @@
+{
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+ "days": 68,
+ "window": [
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+  "2026-10-02"
+ ],
+ "stations": [
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+  "lax",
+  "mia",
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+  "sat"
+ ],
+ "params": {
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+  "market_prior_weight": 0.5
+ },
+ "ablation": [
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+   "note": "",
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+   "daily_mean": -0.825735294117647,
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+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
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+  {
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+   "min_edge": 0.08,
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+   "bias": true,
+   "note": "",
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+   "daily_mean": -0.853088235294118,
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+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
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+  },
+  {
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+   "bias": true,
+   "note": "",
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+   "avg_loss": -0.3037837837837838,
+   "fees": 1.0700000000000005
+  },
+  "nyc": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.3142857142857143,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.048857142857142884,
+   "total_pnl": -3.4200000000000017,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13629421962456567,
+   "avg_win": 0.555909090909091,
+   "avg_loss": -0.32604166666666673,
+   "fees": 1.2300000000000006
+  },
+  "phl": {
+   "n": 49,
+   "win_rate": 0.3469387755102041,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08,
+   "total_pnl": -3.92,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11724860886508116,
+   "avg_win": 0.4864705882352941,
+   "avg_loss": -0.38093749999999993,
+   "fees": 0.9100000000000005
+  },
+  "sat": {
+   "n": 25,
+   "win_rate": 0.44,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.010399999999999974,
+   "total_pnl": 0.25999999999999934,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11801904474048266,
+   "avg_win": 0.5127272727272726,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3842857142857143,
+   "fees": 0.47000000000000014
+  }
+ },
+ "by_week": {
+  "2026-W31": {
+   "n": 81,
+   "win_rate": 0.4074074074074074,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03629629629629632,
+   "total_pnl": -2.9400000000000017,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13337919111293642,
+   "avg_win": 0.4793939393939394,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3908333333333333,
+   "fees": 1.520000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W32": {
+   "n": 71,
+   "win_rate": 0.352112676056338,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.06239436619718313,
+   "total_pnl": -4.430000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1415441717855739,
+   "avg_win": 0.5008,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36847826086956526,
+   "fees": 1.3100000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W33": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.30434782608695654,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08884057971014495,
+   "total_pnl": -6.130000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1394905043837934,
+   "avg_win": 0.5047619047619049,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3485416666666666,
+   "fees": 1.2800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W34": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.05242857142857142,
+   "total_pnl": 3.6699999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13471800521779553,
+   "avg_win": 0.5459375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3631578947368422,
+   "fees": 1.2700000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W35": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
+   "total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
+   "avg_win": 0.51375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3214,
+   "fees": 1.290000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W36": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.28125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
+   "total_pnl": -7.63,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
+   "avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
+   "fees": 1.1700000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W37": {
+   "n": 72,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
+   "total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1328749530169296,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
+   "fees": 1.3300000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W38": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030714285714285694,
+   "total_pnl": 2.1499999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14105623371560858,
+   "avg_win": 0.5213333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33724999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.260000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W39": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.42028985507246375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03550724637681158,
+   "total_pnl": 2.4499999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1489168003396218,
+   "avg_win": 0.5231034482758621,
+   "avg_loss": -0.318,
+   "fees": 1.2200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W40": {
+   "n": 46,
+   "win_rate": 0.3695652173913043,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.021739130434782594,
+   "total_pnl": 0.9999999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1381113183286424,
+   "avg_win": 0.548235294117647,
+   "avg_loss": -0.28689655172413786,
+   "fees": 0.7800000000000005
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 607,
+   "win_rate": 0.385502471169687,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.0248105436573311,
+   "total_pnl": -15.059999999999977,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14248957551533506,
+   "avg_win": 0.5184615384615382,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3656300268096517,
+   "fees": 11.229999999999846
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 79,
+   "win_rate": 0.27848101265822783,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02810126582278484,
+   "total_pnl": -2.2200000000000024,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.10974989822721329,
+   "avg_win": 0.5095454545454545,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2356140350877193,
+   "fees": 1.2000000000000008
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl",
+  "digest": "5f3bfc8a1c069272"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-04T10:50:10",
+ "llm": {
+  "model": "dsv41-flash",
+  "rows": 3453,
+  "sample": "all",
+  "baseline_on_sample": {
+   "n": 686,
+   "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+   "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+   "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+   "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+   "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05906069364161851,
+    0.008793363499245824
+   ]
+  },
+  "baseline_brier": 0.16337390901144846,
+  "deltas": [
+   {
+    "delta": 0.0,
+    "brier": 0.16337390901144846,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 686,
+    "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+    "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+    "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+    "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+    "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05906069364161851,
+     0.008793363499245824
+    ]
+   },
+   {
+    "delta": 0.05,
+    "brier": 0.16043805913241832,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 643,
+    "win_rate": 0.38258164852255055,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.02269051321928457,
+    "total_pnl": -14.589999999999979,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13921238852883364,
+    "avg_win": 0.5184146341463413,
+    "avg_loss": -0.35798488664987443,
+    "fees": 11.819999999999833,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.000000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.21455882352941186,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4582901803891744,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.14713040409567352,
+    "t_stat": -1.2132683936525424,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05901033973412111,
+     0.01393241167434714
+    ]
+   },
+   {
+    "delta": 0.1,
+    "brier": 0.15978833887878896,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 639,
+    "win_rate": 0.38341158059467917,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.02377151799687007,
+    "total_pnl": -15.189999999999976,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13903849447137404,
+    "avg_win": 0.5168979591836733,
+    "avg_loss": -0.35997461928934044,
+    "fees": 11.779999999999834,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.870000000000008,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22338235294117653,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4430374373709376,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.15480010923913082,
+    "t_stat": -1.2765144025001773,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.059632892804698974,
+     0.012622950819672109
+    ]
+   },
+   {
+    "delta": 0.15,
+    "brier": 0.1595261997601081,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 637,
+    "win_rate": 0.38461538461538464,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.023861852433280966,
+    "total_pnl": -15.199999999999974,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1388256557224367,
+    "avg_win": 0.5160816326530611,
+    "avg_loss": -0.36132653061224523,
+    "fees": 11.759999999999835,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.88000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22352941176470598,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4362562910046364,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.15563337348959566,
+    "t_stat": -1.2833856755376127,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.059581320450885704,
+     0.012269841269841252
+    ]
+   },
+   {
+    "delta": 0.25,
+    "brier": 0.15929866452065974,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 631,
+    "win_rate": 0.3866877971473851,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.02375594294770202,
+    "total_pnl": -14.989999999999974,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1389917800632366,
+    "avg_win": 0.5143852459016391,
+    "avg_loss": -0.36304909560723553,
+    "fees": 11.679999999999836,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.270000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22044117647058825,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4165898023527976,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.15561397950518918,
+    "t_stat": -1.283225748645194,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.059487603305785154,
+     0.012291021671826606
+    ]
+   },
+   {
+    "delta": 1.0,
+    "brier": 0.15919260596788107,
+    "n_pairs": 3453,
+    "n": 629,
+    "win_rate": 0.38791732909379967,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.023640699523052425,
+    "total_pnl": -14.869999999999976,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.139142301271682,
+    "avg_win": 0.5143852459016391,
+    "avg_loss": -0.36462337662337696,
+    "fees": 11.659999999999837,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 23.15000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.21867647058823542,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4178340685726478,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.1542327663267253,
+    "t_stat": -1.2718359729925903,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05948590381426204,
+     0.012576219512195109
+    ]
+   }
+  ]
+ }
+}

replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md

@@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-27', '2026-10-02'] · 3453 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1567 | 38% | -0.036 | [-0.054, -0.017] | -56.15 | 58.70 | -3.96 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1476 | 36% | -0.039 | [-0.059, -0.019] | -58.01 | 59.77 | -3.95 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 686 | 37% | -0.025 | [-0.059, +0.009] | -17.28 | 25.28 | -1.48 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 683 | 38% | -0.028 | [-0.061, +0.006] | -19.39 | 25.49 | -1.68 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.040 (2080) | -0.041 (1888) | -0.039 (1666) | -0.039 (1476) | -0.037 (1300) | -0.033 (1144) | -0.029 (926) | -0.025 (635) |
+| 0.25 | -0.040 (1932) | -0.037 (1635) | -0.039 (1384) | -0.033 (1179) | -0.030 (959) | -0.032 (806) | -0.022 (584) | -0.043 (362) |
+| 0.50 | -0.036 (1560) | -0.034 (1228) | -0.025 (931) | -0.025 (686) | -0.026 (507) | -0.046 (381) | -0.045 (238) | -0.124 (74) |
+| 0.75 | -0.030 (835) | -0.036 (449) | -0.044 (247) | -0.139 (95) | -0.174 (37) | -0.072 (19) | +0.076 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 47% | +0.008 | +0.49 |
+| aus | 126 | 29% | -0.055 | -6.90 |
+| chi | 56 | 48% | +0.083 | +4.67 |
+| dal | 77 | 31% | -0.063 | -4.82 |
+| den | 81 | 40% | -0.083 | -6.70 |
+| lax | 82 | 41% | +0.025 | +2.02 |
+| mia | 61 | 39% | +0.017 | +1.04 |
+| nyc | 70 | 31% | -0.049 | -3.42 |
+| phl | 49 | 35% | -0.080 | -3.92 |
+| sat | 25 | 44% | +0.010 | +0.26 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W31 | 81 | 41% | -0.036 | -2.94 |
+| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 46 | 37% | +0.022 | +1.00 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 607 | 39% | -0.025 | -15.06 |
+| low | 79 | 28% | -0.028 | -2.22 |
+
+## llm
+
+```json
+{
+ "model": "dsv41-flash",
+ "rows": 3453,
+ "sample": "all",
+ "baseline_on_sample": {
+  "n": 686,
+  "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+  "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+  "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+  "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+  "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+  "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+  "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+  "days": 68,
+  "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+  "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+  "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+  "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+  "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+  "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+   -0.05906069364161851,
+   0.008793363499245824
+  ]
+ },
+ "baseline_brier": 0.16337390901144846,
+ "deltas": [
+  {
+   "delta": 0.0,
+   "brier": 0.16337390901144846,
+   "n_pairs": 3453,
+   "n": 686,
+   "win_rate": 0.37317784256559766,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.025189504373177813,
+   "total_pnl": -17.27999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13871926282472052,
+   "avg_win": 0.5176953124999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34839534883720963,
+   "fees": 12.42999999999982,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 25.28000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2541176470588236,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4135096949063988,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.17977778856030488,
+   "t_stat": -1.4824856227481906,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05906069364161851,
+    0.008793363499245824
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "delta": 0.05,
+   "brier": 0.16043805913241832,
+   "n_pairs": 3453,
+   "n": 643,
+   "win_rate": 0.38258164852255055,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02269051321928457,
+   "total_pnl": -14.589999999999979,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13921238852883364,
+   "avg_win": 0.5184146341463413,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35798488664987443,
+   "fees": 11.819999999999833,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.000000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.21455882352941186,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4582901803891744,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.14713040409567352,
+   "t_stat": -1.2132683936525424,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05901033973412111,
+    0.01393241167434714
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "delta": 0.1,
+   "brier": 0.15978833887878896,
+   "n_pairs": 3453,
+   "n": 639,
+   "win_rate": 0.38341158059467917,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02377151799687007,
+   "total_pnl": -15.189999999999976,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13903849447137404,
+   "avg_win": 0.5168979591836733,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35997461928934044,
+   "fees": 11.779999999999834,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.870000000000008,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22338235294117653,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4430374373709376,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.15480010923913082,
+   "t_stat": -1.2765144025001773,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.059632892804698974,
+    0.012622950819672109
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "delta": 0.15,
+   "brier": 0.1595261997601081,
+   "n_pairs": 3453,
+   "n": 637,
+   "win_rate": 0.38461538461538464,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.023861852433280966,
+   "total_pnl": -15.199999999999974,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1388256557224367,
+   "avg_win": 0.5160816326530611,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36132653061224523,
+   "fees": 11.759999999999835,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.88000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22352941176470598,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4362562910046364,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.15563337348959566,
+   "t_stat": -1.2833856755376127,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.059581320450885704,
+    0.012269841269841252
+   ]
+  },
+  {
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+   "n": 631,
+   "win_rate": 0.3866877971473851,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02375594294770202,
+   "total_pnl": -14.989999999999974,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1389917800632366,
+   "avg_win": 0.5143852459016391,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36304909560723553,
+   "fees": 11.679999999999836,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.270000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22044117647058825,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4165898023527976,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.15561397950518918,
+   "t_stat": -1.283225748645194,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
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+    0.012291021671826606
+   ]
+  },
+  {
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+   "brier": 0.15919260596788107,
+   "n_pairs": 3453,
+   "n": 629,
+   "win_rate": 0.38791732909379967,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.023640699523052425,
+   "total_pnl": -14.869999999999976,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.139142301271682,
+   "avg_win": 0.5143852459016391,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36462337662337696,
+   "fees": 11.659999999999837,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 23.15000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.21867647058823542,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4178340685726478,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.1542327663267253,
+   "t_stat": -1.2718359729925903,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05948590381426204,
+    0.012576219512195109
+   ]
+  }
+ ]
+}
+```