forecasts @ 6 files, 162 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,502 |
-| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,780 |
-| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,292 |
-| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,204 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,380 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,380 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,622 |
+| `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,920 |
+| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,288 |
+| `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,212 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,400 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,400 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -99,6 +99,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -136,6 +138,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -163,6 +166,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -193,6 +197,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-06.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-07.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2378,3 +2378,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 45.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 53.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2378,3 +2378,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 46.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "runtime": "2026-10-06T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-08", "runtime": "2026-10-07T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}

data/gencast-spread.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"issued_at": "2026-10-07T06:11:47.335441+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.3, "1": 1.38, "2": 1.91, "3": 1.61, "4": 1.64, "5": 2.0, "6": 2.46}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.73, "low": 0.8}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 2.83, "low": 1.04}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.06, "low": 1.94}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.72, "low": 1.58}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 2.06, "low": 1.77}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 3.08, "low": 2.34}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.36, "low": 3.43}}, "aus": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.47, "low": 0.79}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.24, "low": 2.23}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.13, "low": 1.27}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.58, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.64, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.04, "low": 1.42}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 0.96, "low": 4.69}}, "chi": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.27, "low": 1.33}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.05, "low": 1.57}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.88, "low": 2.27}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.33, "low": 2.26}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.13, "low": 3.07}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 2.98, "low": 2.3}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.88, "low": 2.34}}, "mia": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 0.97, "low": 0.74}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.15, "low": 1.26}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.07, "low": 1.17}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 0.99, "low": 0.9}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 0.61, "low": 0.89}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.45, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.07, "low": 0.38}}, "lax": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.85, "low": 1.51}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.5, "low": 1.76}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 3.16, "low": 2.51}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.36, "low": 1.26}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.35, "low": 1.11}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 2.7, "low": 1.01}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.83, "low": 2.45}}, "phl": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.04, "low": 0.59}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 3.99, "low": 0.81}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.52}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.79, "low": 1.63}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.89, "low": 1.37}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 3.0, "low": 2.41}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.67, "low": 3.15}}, "den": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 2.16, "low": 1.57}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.1, "low": 3.38}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 3.63, "low": 2.4}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.98, "low": 1.85}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.91, "low": 3.14}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 3.92, "low": 3.01}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.77, "low": 3.0}}, "dal": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.59, "low": 0.88}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.62, "low": 0.96}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.88, "low": 1.66}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.78, "low": 2.36}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.38, "low": 2.62}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.78, "low": 2.21}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.38, "low": 2.47}}, "atl": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.41, "low": 0.86}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.54, "low": 1.13}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.82, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.22, "low": 0.8}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 2.32, "low": 1.81}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.4, "low": 1.32}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.22, "low": 4.69}}, "sat": {"2026-10-01": {"high": 1.47, "low": 0.79}, "2026-10-02": {"high": 1.24, "low": 2.23}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.13, "low": 1.27}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.58, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.64, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.04, "low": 1.42}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 0.96, "low": 4.69}}}}
+{"issued_at": "2026-10-08T05:53:34.985879+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.06, "1": 1.48, "2": 1.4, "3": 1.49, "4": 1.68, "5": 2.25, "6": 2.81}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.8, "low": 0.78}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.15, "low": 0.98}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.06, "low": 1.52}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.37, "low": 1.75}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 3.27, "low": 1.86}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 3.28, "low": 2.65}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.08, "low": 2.64}}, "aus": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.25, "low": 0.86}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.77, "low": 1.65}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.02, "low": 1.02}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.61, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.9, "low": 1.32}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.25, "low": 1.65}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.78, "low": 3.52}}, "chi": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.28, "low": 1.26}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.58, "low": 2.23}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.14, "low": 1.63}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.5, "low": 1.48}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 4.53, "low": 1.87}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.67, "low": 3.54}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 6.51, "low": 4.91}}, "mia": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 0.37, "low": 0.46}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 0.87, "low": 0.84}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 0.73, "low": 0.67}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.09, "low": 0.56}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.38, "low": 1.08}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.29, "low": 0.76}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.51, "low": 1.73}}, "lax": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.95, "low": 1.7}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.32, "low": 1.89}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.84, "low": 2.29}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.78, "low": 1.4}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.97, "low": 1.52}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.7, "low": 1.38}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.36, "low": 1.9}}, "phl": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 0.88, "low": 0.71}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.18, "low": 0.94}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.2, "low": 1.99}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.15, "low": 1.45}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 2.63, "low": 1.65}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 3.18, "low": 2.7}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.1, "low": 2.97}}, "den": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 2.16, "low": 1.41}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 2.13, "low": 3.12}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 4.42, "low": 2.62}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 2.14, "low": 2.07}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 3.2, "low": 2.5}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.55, "low": 2.48}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 5.01, "low": 1.88}}, "dal": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 0.84, "low": 0.79}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.34, "low": 1.11}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 1.76, "low": 1.28}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.77, "low": 2.24}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 2.14, "low": 1.4}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.98, "low": 1.55}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.6, "low": 1.3}}, "atl": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.94, "low": 0.81}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.38, "low": 1.05}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 0.96, "low": 0.59}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.44, "low": 2.28}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 1.7, "low": 2.02}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 2.01, "low": 1.86}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.05, "low": 2.29}}, "sat": {"2026-10-02": {"high": 1.25, "low": 0.86}, "2026-10-03": {"high": 1.77, "low": 1.65}, "2026-10-04": {"high": 2.02, "low": 1.02}, "2026-10-05": {"high": 1.61, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-06": {"high": 0.9, "low": 1.32}, "2026-10-07": {"high": 1.25, "low": 1.65}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.78, "low": 3.52}}}}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -26500,3 +26500,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.87, "spread": 1.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.7, "icon_seamless": 67.2, "gem_seamless": 65.3, "ukmo_seamless": 65.9, "jma_seamless": 67.8}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "lead": 5, "mean": 84.8, "spread": 2.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 87.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.7, "icon_seamless": 84.3, "gem_seamless": 82.5, "ukmo_seamless": 84.5, "jma_seamless": 87.2}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-06", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.23, "spread": 3.22, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.2, "icon_seamless": 64.1, "gem_seamless": 64.2, "ukmo_seamless": 68.2, "jma_seamless": 71.7}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "value": 72.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "value": 48.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-07", "value": 65.0}
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data/own-models.jsonl

@@ -3778,3 +3778,143 @@
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 {"station": "sat", "target_date": "2026-10-09", "kind": "low", "model": "graphcast", "value": 68.2, "issued_at": "2026-10-04T16:13:17.812038+00:00"}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.json

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+   "total_pnl": 1.9299999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13475419136359762,
+   "avg_win": 0.5570833333333333,
+   "avg_loss": -0.286,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W41": {
+   "n": 34,
+   "win_rate": 0.23529411764705882,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.13676470588235298,
+   "total_pnl": -4.650000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1399829346763296,
+   "avg_win": 0.48500000000000004,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3280769230769231,
+   "fees": 0.6000000000000002
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 592,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.025929054054054008,
+   "total_pnl": -15.349999999999973,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14282516416778818,
+   "avg_win": 0.5267567567567567,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35754054054054035,
+   "fees": 10.859999999999854
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.2702702702702703,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.030540540540540572,
+   "total_pnl": -2.2600000000000025,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11086448309424572,
+   "avg_win": 0.5069999999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2296296296296296,
+   "fees": 1.1100000000000005
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl",
+  "digest": "9b6482427de20624"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-09T10:50:20",
+ "sources": {
+  "nbm": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl",
+   "digest": "3c70195193c6f61c",
+   "rows": 3362,
+   "paired_rows": 3362,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 672,
+    "win_rate": 0.33482142857142855,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03840773809523807,
+    "total_pnl": -25.809999999999985,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13570898770323678,
+    "avg_win": 0.5245333333333331,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3217673378076063,
+    "fees": 11.84999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 31.81000000000001,
+    "daily_mean": -0.38522388059701507,
+    "daily_sd": 1.3589248849945461,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.28347694920500416,
+    "t_stat": -2.3203588319371264,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.07052005943536406,
+     -0.00647234678624815
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 666,
+    "win_rate": 0.3633633633633634,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.026441441441441386,
+    "total_pnl": -17.609999999999964,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1392739773818391,
+    "avg_win": 0.5251239669421487,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34125000000000005,
+    "fees": 11.96999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.340000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.2628358208955225,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4042638597458565,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.1871698250093045,
+    "t_stat": -1.5320510459507921,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.059131736526946095,
+     0.006209553158705681
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16424257795482045,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16334899345809067
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl",
+   "digest": "ac33688cce8b21ae",
+   "rows": 3362,
+   "paired_rows": 3362,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 737,
+    "win_rate": 0.3880597014925373,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.013419267299864309,
+    "total_pnl": -9.889999999999995,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14027446261371673,
+    "avg_win": 0.5062937062937062,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34299334811529913,
+    "fees": 13.2899999999998,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 19.840000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.14761194029850772,
+    "daily_sd": 1.6048742889994945,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.09197726034388118,
+    "t_stat": -0.7528663229050219,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.047144772117962516,
+     0.020832232496697467
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 666,
+    "win_rate": 0.3633633633633634,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.026441441441441386,
+    "total_pnl": -17.609999999999964,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1392739773818391,
+    "avg_win": 0.5251239669421487,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34125000000000005,
+    "fees": 11.96999999999983,
+    "days": 67,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.340000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.2628358208955225,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4042638597458565,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.1871698250093045,
+    "t_stat": -1.5320510459507921,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.059131736526946095,
+     0.006209553158705681
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16602992382585793,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16334899345809067
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 677.44,
+   "return": -0.3226,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.3748,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 136,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 530
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 406.07
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 114,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 530,
+    "cash": 22
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1288.58
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.05,
+   "return": -0.9999,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 121,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 530,
+    "cash": 15
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1213.31
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 950.89,
+   "return": -0.0491,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.2163,
+   "days": 67,
+   "entered": 9,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 33,
+    "kill-switch": 624
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 262.47
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-02', '2026-10-07'] · 3362 rows · 67 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1532 | 38% | -0.034 | [-0.051, -0.017] | -52.33 | 52.46 | -3.95 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1439 | 35% | -0.041 | [-0.061, -0.021] | -58.83 | 58.84 | -4.09 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 666 | 36% | -0.026 | [-0.059, +0.006] | -17.61 | 22.34 | -1.53 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.195 | 0.00 | True | 637 | 37% | -0.024 | [-0.059, +0.010] | -15.50 | 19.77 | -1.35 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.040 (2025) | -0.041 (1847) | -0.039 (1626) | -0.041 (1439) | -0.037 (1262) | -0.033 (1107) | -0.028 (905) | -0.023 (618) |
+| 0.25 | -0.040 (1887) | -0.038 (1594) | -0.040 (1345) | -0.032 (1145) | -0.027 (932) | -0.031 (789) | -0.021 (568) | -0.030 (356) |
+| 0.50 | -0.038 (1522) | -0.035 (1192) | -0.023 (909) | -0.026 (666) | -0.018 (490) | -0.034 (372) | -0.030 (237) | -0.124 (74) |
+| 0.75 | -0.029 (811) | -0.021 (435) | -0.029 (246) | -0.137 (96) | -0.171 (36) | -0.051 (17) | +0.076 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 58 | 45% | -0.013 | -0.77 |
+| aus | 122 | 30% | -0.037 | -4.46 |
+| chi | 55 | 44% | +0.019 | +1.05 |
+| dal | 76 | 30% | -0.062 | -4.69 |
+| den | 76 | 37% | -0.083 | -6.31 |
+| lax | 79 | 42% | +0.037 | +2.96 |
+| mia | 59 | 41% | +0.032 | +1.89 |
+| nyc | 68 | 32% | -0.031 | -2.13 |
+| phl | 50 | 32% | -0.089 | -4.43 |
+| sat | 23 | 39% | -0.031 | -0.72 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W31 | 9 | 44% | +0.050 | +0.45 |
+| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 34 | 24% | -0.137 | -4.65 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 592 | 38% | -0.026 | -15.35 |
+| low | 74 | 27% | -0.031 | -2.26 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl",
+  "digest": "3c70195193c6f61c",
+  "rows": 3362,
+  "paired_rows": 3362,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 672,
+   "win_rate": 0.33482142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03840773809523807,
+   "total_pnl": -25.809999999999985,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13570898770323678,
+   "avg_win": 0.5245333333333331,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3217673378076063,
+   "fees": 11.84999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 31.81000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.38522388059701507,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3589248849945461,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.28347694920500416,
+   "t_stat": -2.3203588319371264,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.07052005943536406,
+    -0.00647234678624815
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 666,
+   "win_rate": 0.3633633633633634,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.026441441441441386,
+   "total_pnl": -17.609999999999964,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1392739773818391,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251239669421487,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34125000000000005,
+   "fees": 11.96999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.340000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2628358208955225,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4042638597458565,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.1871698250093045,
+   "t_stat": -1.5320510459507921,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.059131736526946095,
+    0.006209553158705681
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16424257795482045,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16334899345809067
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-08.jsonl",
+  "digest": "ac33688cce8b21ae",
+  "rows": 3362,
+  "paired_rows": 3362,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 737,
+   "win_rate": 0.3880597014925373,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.013419267299864309,
+   "total_pnl": -9.889999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14027446261371673,
+   "avg_win": 0.5062937062937062,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34299334811529913,
+   "fees": 13.2899999999998,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 19.840000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.14761194029850772,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6048742889994945,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.09197726034388118,
+   "t_stat": -0.7528663229050219,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.047144772117962516,
+    0.020832232496697467
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 666,
+   "win_rate": 0.3633633633633634,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.026441441441441386,
+   "total_pnl": -17.609999999999964,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1392739773818391,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251239669421487,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34125000000000005,
+   "fees": 11.96999999999983,
+   "days": 67,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.340000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2628358208955225,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4042638597458565,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.1871698250093045,
+   "t_stat": -1.5320510459507921,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.059131736526946095,
+    0.006209553158705681
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16602992382585793,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16334899345809067
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 677.44,
+  "return": -0.3226,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.3748,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 136,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 530
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 406.07
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 114,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 530,
+   "cash": 22
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1288.58
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.05,
+  "return": -0.9999,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 121,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 530,
+   "cash": 15
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1213.31
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 950.89,
+  "return": -0.0491,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.2163,
+  "days": 67,
+  "entered": 9,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 33,
+   "kill-switch": 624
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 262.47
+ }
+]
+```