forecasts @ 6 files, 295 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 29,502 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 29,622 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 5,600 |
 | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,296 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,989 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,880 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,880 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,900 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,900 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -149,6 +149,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -219,6 +221,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -271,6 +274,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -326,6 +330,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-30.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-31.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-01.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2878,3 +2878,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 44.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 85.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 45.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 83.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 45.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2878,3 +2878,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 42.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "runtime": "2026-10-31T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 56.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 46.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 81.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 47.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 43.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-02", "runtime": "2026-11-01T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -29500,3 +29500,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-31", "lead": 4, "mean": 67.52, "spread": 1.26, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 66.6, "icon_seamless": 68.1, "gem_seamless": 65.4, "ukmo_seamless": 68.8, "jma_seamless": 68.1}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-31", "lead": 5, "mean": 80.45, "spread": 2.56, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.2, "icon_seamless": 77.1, "gem_seamless": 79.1, "ukmo_seamless": 83.6, "jma_seamless": 78.5}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-31", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.17, "spread": 2.17, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.0, "icon_seamless": 67.2, "gem_seamless": 64.1, "ukmo_seamless": 69.2, "jma_seamless": 69.4}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 43.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 59.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 44.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 82.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 72.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 64.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 53.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 86.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 62.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 53.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 83.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 66.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 67.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 43.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 79.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 71.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "value": 60.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 1, "mean": 63.1, "spread": 1.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 62.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 60.1, "icon_seamless": 62.2, "gem_seamless": 63.0, "ukmo_seamless": 63.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.1, "jma_seamless": 64.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 1, "mean": 53.21, "spread": 2.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 51.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 50.3, "icon_seamless": 52.7, "gem_seamless": 54.7, "ukmo_seamless": 52.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 52.6, "jma_seamless": 58.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.13, "spread": 3.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 62.7, "icon_seamless": 58.9, "gem_seamless": 64.9, "ukmo_seamless": 61.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.2, "jma_seamless": 70.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 2, "mean": 55.5, "spread": 1.91, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.4, "icon_seamless": 53.4, "gem_seamless": 56.8, "ukmo_seamless": 55.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 53.2, "jma_seamless": 58.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 3, "mean": 65.53, "spread": 2.31, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.5, "icon_seamless": 62.6, "gem_seamless": 67.2, "ukmo_seamless": 63.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 66.6, "jma_seamless": 69.0}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 3, "mean": 57.31, "spread": 2.78, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 56.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 55.6, "icon_seamless": 53.6, "gem_seamless": 58.2, "ukmo_seamless": 58.2, "meteofrance_seamless": 56.4, "jma_seamless": 62.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 4, "mean": 65.32, "spread": 2.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 61.7, "icon_seamless": 63.1, "gem_seamless": 64.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.8, "jma_seamless": 69.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 4, "mean": 57.42, "spread": 2.78, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 55.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 54.8, "icon_seamless": 55.5, "gem_seamless": 57.3, "ukmo_seamless": 59.5, "jma_seamless": 61.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 5, "mean": 65.92, "spread": 3.05, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 65.3, "icon_seamless": 60.4, "gem_seamless": 66.3, "ukmo_seamless": 69.5, "jma_seamless": 67.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 5, "mean": 56.78, "spread": 3.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 57.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 53.5, "icon_seamless": 55.9, "gem_seamless": 53.5, "ukmo_seamless": 60.8, "jma_seamless": 59.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 1, "mean": 81.89, "spread": 1.39, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.7, "icon_seamless": 80.7, "gem_seamless": 84.6, "ukmo_seamless": 81.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 82.6, "jma_seamless": 80.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 1, "mean": 64.21, "spread": 1.45, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.8, "icon_seamless": 64.7, "gem_seamless": 62.6, "ukmo_seamless": 65.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 62.4, "jma_seamless": 65.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 2, "mean": 80.79, "spread": 3.71, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 86.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.3, "icon_seamless": 77.3, "gem_seamless": 85.1, "ukmo_seamless": 78.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.4, "jma_seamless": 77.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 2, "mean": 64.5, "spread": 1.23, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 63.4, "icon_seamless": 63.8, "gem_seamless": 63.0, "ukmo_seamless": 65.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 64.2, "jma_seamless": 65.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.14, "spread": 3.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 85.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.9, "icon_seamless": 79.9, "gem_seamless": 72.4, "ukmo_seamless": 77.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 77.1, "jma_seamless": 77.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 3, "mean": 66.01, "spread": 2.42, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 65.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 64.2, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 63.1, "ukmo_seamless": 66.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.0, "jma_seamless": 70.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 4, "mean": 80.25, "spread": 1.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.6, "icon_seamless": 79.7, "gem_seamless": 80.3, "ukmo_seamless": 78.5, "jma_seamless": 79.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-11-01", "lead": 4, "mean": 66.55, "spread": 2.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 66.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.8, "icon_seamless": 64.0, "gem_seamless": 65.6, "ukmo_seamless": 65.8, "jma_seamless": 69.9}}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.json

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+   "total_pnl": 1.8399999999999976,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1414788782433244,
+   "avg_win": 0.563076923076923,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3878787878787878,
+   "fees": 1.1600000000000006
+  },
+  "aus": {
+   "n": 114,
+   "win_rate": 0.2719298245614035,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.06280701754385967,
+   "total_pnl": -7.160000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15164190605382463,
+   "avg_win": 0.5351612903225805,
+   "avg_loss": -0.28614457831325296,
+   "fees": 1.9200000000000013
+  },
+  "chi": {
+   "n": 77,
+   "win_rate": 0.37662337662337664,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.002857142857142837,
+   "total_pnl": 0.21999999999999847,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13736137588623898,
+   "avg_win": 0.4989655172413793,
+   "avg_loss": -0.29687500000000006,
+   "fees": 1.3500000000000008
+  },
+  "dal": {
+   "n": 81,
+   "win_rate": 0.2345679012345679,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11111111111111116,
+   "total_pnl": -9.000000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15913737296185798,
+   "avg_win": 0.5531578947368422,
+   "avg_loss": -0.31467741935483867,
+   "fees": 1.4200000000000008
+  },
+  "den": {
+   "n": 75,
+   "win_rate": 0.30666666666666664,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.1232,
+   "total_pnl": -9.24,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1459818350470883,
+   "avg_win": 0.4734782608695653,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3871153846153846,
+   "fees": 1.3900000000000008
+  },
+  "lax": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.06985714285714284,
+   "total_pnl": 4.889999999999999,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.16512258920326872,
+   "avg_win": 0.5693333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.30475,
+   "fees": 1.2300000000000006
+  },
+  "mia": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.3181818181818182,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.030606060606060626,
+   "total_pnl": -2.0200000000000014,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12534401099768902,
+   "avg_win": 0.5076190476190476,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2817777777777778,
+   "fees": 1.1600000000000006
+  },
+  "nyc": {
+   "n": 77,
+   "win_rate": 0.2727272727272727,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.07272727272727272,
+   "total_pnl": -5.6,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1346345206338483,
+   "avg_win": 0.5628571428571428,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3110714285714286,
+   "fees": 1.3200000000000007
+  },
+  "phl": {
+   "n": 51,
+   "win_rate": 0.3333333333333333,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04039215686274512,
+   "total_pnl": -2.060000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13225302568921446,
+   "avg_win": 0.5541176470588235,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33764705882352947,
+   "fees": 0.9200000000000005
+  },
+  "sat": {
+   "n": 15,
+   "win_rate": 0.26666666666666666,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08400000000000005,
+   "total_pnl": -1.2600000000000007,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11699065709478813,
+   "avg_win": 0.5025,
+   "avg_loss": -0.29727272727272736,
+   "fees": 0.25
+  }
+ },
+ "by_week": {
+  "2026-W35": {
+   "n": 53,
+   "win_rate": 0.32075471698113206,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05830188679245285,
+   "total_pnl": -3.090000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13407276536713073,
+   "avg_win": 0.5176470588235295,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3302777777777777,
+   "fees": 0.9200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W36": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.28125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
+   "total_pnl": -7.63,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
+   "avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
+   "fees": 1.1700000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W37": {
+   "n": 72,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
+   "total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13287495301692961,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
+   "fees": 1.3300000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W38": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030714285714285694,
+   "total_pnl": 2.1499999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14105623371560858,
+   "avg_win": 0.5213333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33724999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.260000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W39": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.42028985507246375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03550724637681158,
+   "total_pnl": 2.4499999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1489168003396218,
+   "avg_win": 0.5231034482758621,
+   "avg_loss": -0.318,
+   "fees": 1.2200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W40": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030156249999999978,
+   "total_pnl": 1.9299999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13475419136359762,
+   "avg_win": 0.5570833333333333,
+   "avg_loss": -0.286,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W41": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.25675675675675674,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.12337837837837841,
+   "total_pnl": -9.130000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14337954287726956,
+   "avg_win": 0.5173684210526316,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3447272727272728,
+   "fees": 1.3600000000000008
+  },
+  "2026-W42": {
+   "n": 66,
+   "win_rate": 0.24242424242424243,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.09181818181818188,
+   "total_pnl": -6.060000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.15550431439278886,
+   "avg_win": 0.49249999999999994,
+   "avg_loss": -0.27879999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.1100000000000005
+  },
+  "2026-W43": {
+   "n": 85,
+   "win_rate": 0.2823529411764706,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05070588235294114,
+   "total_pnl": -4.309999999999997,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1471523522787049,
+   "avg_win": 0.5629166666666666,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2921311475409836,
+   "fees": 1.490000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W44": {
+   "n": 68,
+   "win_rate": 0.25,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.059117647058823525,
+   "total_pnl": -4.02,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1582966561222546,
+   "avg_win": 0.6017647058823529,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2794117647058824,
+   "fees": 1.1800000000000006
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 631,
+   "win_rate": 0.3375594294770206,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03676703645007922,
+   "total_pnl": -23.19999999999999,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14639637340674638,
+   "avg_win": 0.5363380281690142,
+   "avg_loss": -0.32880382775119604,
+   "fees": 11.339999999999845
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 54,
+   "win_rate": 0.14814814814814814,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11462962962962962,
+   "total_pnl": -6.1899999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11799663877725973,
+   "avg_win": 0.48125,
+   "avg_loss": -0.21826086956521742,
+   "fees": 0.7800000000000004
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl",
+  "digest": "b64f2a500ed7fb14"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-11-03T10:53:32",
+ "sources": {
+  "nbm": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl",
+   "digest": "dc7c709dcd9fc424",
+   "rows": 3149,
+   "paired_rows": 3149,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 687,
+    "win_rate": 0.31877729257641924,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.04451237263464336,
+    "total_pnl": -30.579999999999988,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.1463162024091116,
+    "avg_win": 0.5250684931506848,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3110470085470083,
+    "fees": 12.099999999999827,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 30.940000000000012,
+    "daily_mean": -0.44970588235294134,
+    "daily_sd": 1.2999793001661233,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.3459331100852712,
+    "t_stat": -2.8526375045599903,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.07505882352941179,
+     -0.015955056179775294
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 685,
+    "win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.04290510948905108,
+    "total_pnl": -29.38999999999999,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14415756220967743,
+    "avg_win": 0.5343438914027151,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3178448275862067,
+    "fees": 12.119999999999827,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 30.17000000000002,
+    "daily_mean": -0.43220588235294144,
+    "daily_sd": 1.322847274708493,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.32672394660841236,
+    "t_stat": -2.6942346845702985,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.072283356258597,
+     -0.012584745762711878
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.1663612527761489,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.1616917392915312
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl",
+   "digest": "d156e19b0e42db10",
+   "rows": 3149,
+   "paired_rows": 3149,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 752,
+    "win_rate": 0.3670212765957447,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.022061170212765952,
+    "total_pnl": -16.589999999999996,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14966198064115419,
+    "avg_win": 0.5122463768115944,
+    "avg_loss": -0.33186974789915963,
+    "fees": 13.519999999999797,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.85,
+    "daily_mean": -0.24397058823529422,
+    "daily_sd": 1.5607309230124873,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.15631816134224324,
+    "t_stat": -1.2890325808328245,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.0551156462585034,
+     0.010352781546811397
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 685,
+    "win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.04290510948905108,
+    "total_pnl": -29.38999999999999,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14415756220967743,
+    "avg_win": 0.5343438914027151,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3178448275862067,
+    "fees": 12.119999999999827,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 30.17000000000002,
+    "daily_mean": -0.43220588235294144,
+    "daily_sd": 1.322847274708493,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.32672394660841236,
+    "t_stat": -2.6942346845702985,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.072283356258597,
+     -0.012584745762711878
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16821342960029337,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.1616917392915312
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 388.69,
+   "return": -0.6113,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.6913,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 178,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 507
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 761.99
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.0,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 56,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 507,
+    "cash": 122
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1273.23
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.05,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 68,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 507,
+    "cash": 110
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1273.18
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 1040.45,
+   "return": 0.0404,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.1828,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 10,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 43,
+    "kill-switch": 632
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-31",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 232.78
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.md

@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-26', '2026-11-01'] · 3149 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1428 | 36% | -0.037 | [-0.054, -0.020] | -52.82 | 53.71 | -4.07 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1353 | 32% | -0.047 | [-0.066, -0.027] | -63.34 | 65.23 | -4.50 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 685 | 32% | -0.043 | [-0.072, -0.013] | -29.39 | 30.17 | -2.69 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 685 | 33% | -0.048 | [-0.077, -0.018] | -32.88 | 33.66 | -3.07 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.047 (1865) | -0.046 (1705) | -0.045 (1514) | -0.047 (1353) | -0.043 (1199) | -0.043 (1063) | -0.037 (883) | -0.045 (640) |
+| 0.25 | -0.046 (1731) | -0.047 (1483) | -0.046 (1279) | -0.041 (1101) | -0.036 (915) | -0.040 (780) | -0.039 (596) | -0.046 (397) |
+| 0.50 | -0.046 (1434) | -0.043 (1139) | -0.031 (894) | -0.043 (685) | -0.041 (528) | -0.046 (419) | -0.056 (270) | -0.128 (88) |
+| 0.75 | -0.038 (822) | -0.037 (479) | -0.051 (276) | -0.123 (114) | -0.166 (46) | -0.079 (21) | -0.094 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 44% | +0.031 | +1.84 |
+| aus | 114 | 27% | -0.063 | -7.16 |
+| chi | 77 | 38% | +0.003 | +0.22 |
+| dal | 81 | 23% | -0.111 | -9.00 |
+| den | 75 | 31% | -0.123 | -9.24 |
+| lax | 70 | 43% | +0.070 | +4.89 |
+| mia | 66 | 32% | -0.031 | -2.02 |
+| nyc | 77 | 27% | -0.073 | -5.60 |
+| phl | 51 | 33% | -0.040 | -2.06 |
+| sat | 15 | 27% | -0.084 | -1.26 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W35 | 53 | 32% | -0.058 | -3.09 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 74 | 26% | -0.123 | -9.13 |
+| 2026-W42 | 66 | 24% | -0.092 | -6.06 |
+| 2026-W43 | 85 | 28% | -0.051 | -4.31 |
+| 2026-W44 | 68 | 25% | -0.059 | -4.02 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 631 | 34% | -0.037 | -23.20 |
+| low | 54 | 15% | -0.115 | -6.19 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl",
+  "digest": "dc7c709dcd9fc424",
+  "rows": 3149,
+  "paired_rows": 3149,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 687,
+   "win_rate": 0.31877729257641924,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04451237263464336,
+   "total_pnl": -30.579999999999988,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1463162024091116,
+   "avg_win": 0.5250684931506848,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3110470085470083,
+   "fees": 12.099999999999827,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 30.940000000000012,
+   "daily_mean": -0.44970588235294134,
+   "daily_sd": 1.2999793001661233,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.3459331100852712,
+   "t_stat": -2.8526375045599903,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.07505882352941179,
+    -0.015955056179775294
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 685,
+   "win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04290510948905108,
+   "total_pnl": -29.38999999999999,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14415756220967743,
+   "avg_win": 0.5343438914027151,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3178448275862067,
+   "fees": 12.119999999999827,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 30.17000000000002,
+   "daily_mean": -0.43220588235294144,
+   "daily_sd": 1.322847274708493,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.32672394660841236,
+   "t_stat": -2.6942346845702985,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.072283356258597,
+    -0.012584745762711878
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.1663612527761489,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.1616917392915312
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-11-02.jsonl",
+  "digest": "d156e19b0e42db10",
+  "rows": 3149,
+  "paired_rows": 3149,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 752,
+   "win_rate": 0.3670212765957447,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.022061170212765952,
+   "total_pnl": -16.589999999999996,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14966198064115419,
+   "avg_win": 0.5122463768115944,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33186974789915963,
+   "fees": 13.519999999999797,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.85,
+   "daily_mean": -0.24397058823529422,
+   "daily_sd": 1.5607309230124873,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.15631816134224324,
+   "t_stat": -1.2890325808328245,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.0551156462585034,
+    0.010352781546811397
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 685,
+   "win_rate": 0.32262773722627736,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04290510948905108,
+   "total_pnl": -29.38999999999999,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14415756220967743,
+   "avg_win": 0.5343438914027151,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3178448275862067,
+   "fees": 12.119999999999827,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 30.17000000000002,
+   "daily_mean": -0.43220588235294144,
+   "daily_sd": 1.322847274708493,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.32672394660841236,
+   "t_stat": -2.6942346845702985,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.072283356258597,
+    -0.012584745762711878
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16821342960029337,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.1616917392915312
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 388.69,
+  "return": -0.6113,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.6913,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 178,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 507
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 761.99
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.0,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 56,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 507,
+   "cash": 122
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1273.23
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.05,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 68,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 507,
+   "cash": 110
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1273.18
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 1040.45,
+  "return": 0.0404,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1828,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 10,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 43,
+   "kill-switch": 632
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-31",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 232.78
+ }
+]
+```