forecasts @ 6 files, 189 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 27,102 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 27,222 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 4,340 |
-| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,289 |
+| `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,296 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,271 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,480 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,480 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,500 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,500 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -109,6 +109,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -153,6 +155,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -185,6 +188,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -220,6 +224,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-10.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-12.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2478,3 +2478,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 61.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 91.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 66.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 44.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 57.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 78.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2478,3 +2478,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 92.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "runtime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 62.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 96.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 94.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 76.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 49.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 70.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 59.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-13", "runtime": "2026-10-12T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}

data/gencast-spread.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"issued_at": "2026-10-13T00:24:46.284792+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.31, "1": 1.21, "2": 1.8, "3": 1.82, "4": 2.05, "5": 2.29, "6": 3.35}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.29, "low": 1.78}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.39, "low": 1.33}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.94, "low": 1.54}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.98, "low": 1.78}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.1, "low": 2.5}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.34, "low": 2.86}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 5.16, "low": 3.85}}, "aus": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.31, "low": 0.93}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.01, "low": 0.94}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.08, "low": 1.57}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.0, "low": 1.85}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.89, "low": 3.62}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 1.55, "low": 3.31}}, "chi": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.35, "low": 0.91}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 3.02, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.97, "low": 2.86}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.5, "low": 1.15}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.62, "low": 3.07}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 5.78, "low": 3.57}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 6.61, "low": 3.99}}, "mia": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 0.44, "low": 1.14}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.03, "low": 1.1}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 0.97, "low": 1.28}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 0.92, "low": 1.64}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 0.48, "low": 1.0}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.06, "low": 0.57}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 1.7, "low": 1.42}}, "lax": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.85, "low": 1.72}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.01, "low": 1.94}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.35, "low": 1.82}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.87, "low": 2.03}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.82, "low": 1.73}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.83, "low": 1.17}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 3.36, "low": 1.04}}, "phl": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.03, "low": 1.26}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 2.74, "low": 1.18}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.73, "low": 1.46}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.98, "low": 1.76}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.1, "low": 2.87}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 3.41, "low": 2.23}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 4.21, "low": 3.64}}, "den": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 2.87, "low": 1.82}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 0.97, "low": 2.41}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 4.54, "low": 2.1}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.56, "low": 1.85}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 4.71, "low": 2.6}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 8.71, "low": 3.43}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 8.25, "low": 3.93}}, "dal": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.82, "low": 1.49}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.35, "low": 1.8}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.32, "low": 1.63}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.42, "low": 2.5}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.71, "low": 1.27}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.74, "low": 2.89}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 3.37, "low": 3.33}}, "atl": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 2.92, "low": 0.75}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.11, "low": 2.78}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 2.37, "low": 2.0}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.71, "low": 3.33}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.53, "low": 2.64}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.82, "low": 1.81}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 2.17, "low": 2.19}}, "sat": {"2026-10-07": {"high": 1.31, "low": 0.93}, "2026-10-08": {"high": 1.01, "low": 0.94}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.8, "low": 1.53}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.08, "low": 1.57}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.0, "low": 1.85}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.89, "low": 3.62}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 1.55, "low": 3.31}}}}
+{"issued_at": "2026-10-14T00:39:16.844102+00:00", "source": "OpenThomas \u00b7 GenCast", "members": 9, "ref_sigma": {"0": 1.22, "1": 1.36, "2": 1.91, "3": 1.98, "4": 2.24, "5": 2.84, "6": 2.94}, "spread": {"nyc": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 1.24, "low": 1.12}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.25, "low": 1.39}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.75, "low": 1.69}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.25, "low": 2.53}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.76, "low": 1.52}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 4.84, "low": 3.34}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 7.74, "low": 7.89}}, "aus": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 1.35, "low": 0.87}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.23, "low": 1.29}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.07, "low": 1.11}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.84, "low": 2.97}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.97, "low": 3.04}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 2.39, "low": 3.3}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 1.62, "low": 1.97}}, "chi": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 2.25, "low": 1.13}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 3.06, "low": 3.24}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.49, "low": 2.01}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.93, "low": 3.33}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 3.36, "low": 2.27}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 7.9, "low": 7.77}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 13.12, "low": 12.35}}, "mia": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 0.83, "low": 0.77}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 0.74, "low": 1.02}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 0.69, "low": 1.33}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 0.83, "low": 0.81}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 0.85, "low": 0.79}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 0.51, "low": 1.14}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 1.25, "low": 1.33}}, "lax": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 1.86, "low": 1.73}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.67, "low": 1.93}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 3.61, "low": 2.12}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.86, "low": 1.41}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.2, "low": 1.67}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 4.69, "low": 1.71}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 4.71, "low": 1.53}}, "phl": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 0.93, "low": 0.99}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 3.08, "low": 1.05}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.8, "low": 2.43}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 2.25, "low": 2.04}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.67, "low": 2.0}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 4.39, "low": 2.73}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 7.93, "low": 7.25}}, "den": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 2.93, "low": 1.28}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.27, "low": 2.52}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 4.44, "low": 2.13}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 3.07, "low": 1.77}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 6.12, "low": 4.09}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 5.95, "low": 2.64}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 5.07, "low": 4.84}}, "dal": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 1.79, "low": 1.2}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.81, "low": 1.34}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 1.52, "low": 1.24}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.76, "low": 2.29}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 3.0, "low": 2.82}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 2.95, "low": 1.93}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 3.34, "low": 1.81}}, "atl": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 2.6, "low": 1.1}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.71, "low": 1.96}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 4.0, "low": 2.05}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.96, "low": 2.0}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 2.57, "low": 1.76}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 1.85, "low": 1.91}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 2.54, "low": 2.11}}, "sat": {"2026-10-08": {"high": 1.35, "low": 0.87}, "2026-10-09": {"high": 1.23, "low": 1.29}, "2026-10-10": {"high": 2.07, "low": 1.11}, "2026-10-11": {"high": 1.84, "low": 2.97}, "2026-10-12": {"high": 1.97, "low": 3.04}, "2026-10-13": {"high": 2.39, "low": 3.3}, "2026-10-14": {"high": 1.62, "low": 1.97}}}}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -27100,3 +27100,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "lead": 4, "mean": 67.43, "spread": 4.4, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 68.5, "icon_seamless": 63.5, "gem_seamless": 60.5, "ukmo_seamless": 70.3, "jma_seamless": 71.1}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "lead": 5, "mean": 88.2, "spread": 2.93, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 88.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 91.9, "icon_seamless": 88.3, "gem_seamless": 83.2, "ukmo_seamless": 89.8, "jma_seamless": 87.1}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-11", "lead": 5, "mean": 66.47, "spread": 2.76, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 67.2, "icon_seamless": 62.1, "gem_seamless": 64.1, "ukmo_seamless": 69.2, "jma_seamless": 68.0}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "value": 74.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "value": 57.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "value": 70.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "value": 54.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-12", "value": 90.0}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.json

@@ -0,0 +1,784 @@
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+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 688,
+    "win_rate": 0.35319767441860467,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03495639534883715,
+    "total_pnl": -24.049999999999958,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13964804939087888,
+    "avg_win": 0.5256790123456788,
+    "avg_loss": -0.34110112359550554,
+    "fees": 12.399999999999821,
+    "days": 69,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.05,
+    "daily_mean": -0.34855072463768116,
+    "daily_sd": 1.453937124785783,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.23972888421088714,
+    "t_stat": -1.9913376702168792,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.06825834542815676,
+     0.00035139092240115246
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16577754591222732,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16300255615983208
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 683.77,
+   "return": -0.3162,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.4345,
+   "days": 69,
+   "entered": 145,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 543
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 465.39
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.02,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 69,
+   "entered": 97,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 543,
+    "cash": 48
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1037.22
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.02,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 69,
+   "entered": 111,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 543,
+    "cash": 34
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1045.39
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 836.2,
+   "return": -0.1638,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.1638,
+   "days": 69,
+   "entered": 4,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 12,
+    "kill-switch": 672
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 163.8
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.md

@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-08-05', '2026-10-12'] · 3425 rows · 69 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1553 | 37% | -0.037 | [-0.055, -0.019] | -57.67 | 57.67 | -4.05 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1465 | 34% | -0.044 | [-0.064, -0.023] | -64.30 | 64.30 | -4.20 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 688 | 35% | -0.035 | [-0.068, +0.000] | -24.05 | 24.05 | -1.99 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 688 | 36% | -0.039 | [-0.072, -0.004] | -26.57 | 26.57 | -2.20 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.043 (2046) | -0.044 (1868) | -0.043 (1648) | -0.044 (1465) | -0.040 (1294) | -0.038 (1131) | -0.034 (930) | -0.033 (636) |
+| 0.25 | -0.044 (1905) | -0.042 (1616) | -0.042 (1371) | -0.036 (1176) | -0.032 (956) | -0.036 (812) | -0.028 (589) | -0.033 (371) |
+| 0.50 | -0.042 (1547) | -0.039 (1224) | -0.029 (931) | -0.035 (688) | -0.026 (508) | -0.039 (387) | -0.027 (249) | -0.131 (78) |
+| 0.75 | -0.035 (835) | -0.026 (449) | -0.024 (256) | -0.135 (102) | -0.203 (38) | -0.099 (16) | -0.115 (4) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 59 | 42% | -0.021 | -1.24 |
+| aus | 123 | 28% | -0.054 | -6.70 |
+| chi | 63 | 43% | +0.011 | +0.68 |
+| dal | 78 | 29% | -0.070 | -5.48 |
+| den | 79 | 34% | -0.106 | -8.36 |
+| lax | 79 | 41% | +0.033 | +2.61 |
+| mia | 63 | 41% | +0.034 | +2.17 |
+| nyc | 69 | 33% | -0.026 | -1.78 |
+| phl | 52 | 31% | -0.101 | -5.23 |
+| sat | 23 | 39% | -0.031 | -0.72 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W32 | 54 | 33% | -0.068 | -3.66 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+| 2026-W41 | 74 | 26% | -0.123 | -9.13 |
+| 2026-W42 | 8 | 12% | -0.285 | -2.28 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 615 | 37% | -0.033 | -20.13 |
+| low | 73 | 25% | -0.054 | -3.92 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl",
+  "digest": "41d3f255e71b24d9",
+  "rows": 3425,
+  "paired_rows": 3425,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 692,
+   "win_rate": 0.3338150289017341,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03787572254335258,
+   "total_pnl": -26.209999999999983,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1378993105029478,
+   "avg_win": 0.5246320346320343,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3197396963123645,
+   "fees": 12.219999999999821,
+   "days": 69,
+   "max_drawdown": 27.94000000000001,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3798550724637682,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3657991549376152,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.2781192762424272,
+   "t_stat": -2.3102322167728495,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06858585858585858,
+    -0.005625000000000015
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 688,
+   "win_rate": 0.35319767441860467,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03495639534883715,
+   "total_pnl": -24.049999999999958,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13964804939087888,
+   "avg_win": 0.5256790123456788,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34110112359550554,
+   "fees": 12.399999999999821,
+   "days": 69,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.05,
+   "daily_mean": -0.34855072463768116,
+   "daily_sd": 1.453937124785783,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.23972888421088714,
+   "t_stat": -1.9913376702168792,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06825834542815676,
+    0.00035139092240115246
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16386240468756594,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16300255615983208
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-13.jsonl",
+  "digest": "4544e82929ef2700",
+  "rows": 3425,
+  "paired_rows": 3425,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 755,
+   "win_rate": 0.3801324503311258,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.019258278145695366,
+   "total_pnl": -14.540000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14154064975142552,
+   "avg_win": 0.5082926829268293,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3427777777777776,
+   "fees": 13.629999999999793,
+   "days": 69,
+   "max_drawdown": 19.300000000000004,
+   "daily_mean": -0.2107246376811596,
+   "daily_sd": 1.6594004222296144,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.12698841994870919,
+   "t_stat": -1.0548450394602094,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05344283837056508,
+    0.01823218997361475
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 688,
+   "win_rate": 0.35319767441860467,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03495639534883715,
+   "total_pnl": -24.049999999999958,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13964804939087888,
+   "avg_win": 0.5256790123456788,
+   "avg_loss": -0.34110112359550554,
+   "fees": 12.399999999999821,
+   "days": 69,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.05,
+   "daily_mean": -0.34855072463768116,
+   "daily_sd": 1.453937124785783,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.23972888421088714,
+   "t_stat": -1.9913376702168792,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.06825834542815676,
+    0.00035139092240115246
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16577754591222732,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16300255615983208
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 683.77,
+  "return": -0.3162,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.4345,
+  "days": 69,
+  "entered": 145,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 543
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 465.39
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.02,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 69,
+  "entered": 97,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 543,
+   "cash": 48
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1037.22
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.02,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 69,
+  "entered": 111,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 543,
+   "cash": 34
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1045.39
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 836.2,
+  "return": -0.1638,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1638,
+  "days": 69,
+  "entered": 4,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 12,
+   "kill-switch": 672
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 163.8
+ }
+]
+```