forecasts @ 6 files, 147 replay artifacts

README.md

@@ -21,12 +21,12 @@ the paper's replay experiments (`docs/EXPERIMENTS.md` in the
 
 | file | what | lines / bytes |
 |---|---|---|
-| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,142 |
+| `data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl` | as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 26,262 |
 | `data/own-models.jsonl` | station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 3,780 |
 | `data/gencast-spread.json` | per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,298 |
 | `data/graphcast-tempseries.json` | coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 113,204 |
-| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,320 |
-| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,320 |
+| `data/baseline-nbm.jsonl` | as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 2,340 |
+| `data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl` | as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 2,340 |
 
 ## Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
 
@@ -93,6 +93,8 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.md`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.json`
 - `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.md`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json`
+- `replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md`
 - `replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json`
@@ -127,6 +129,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl`
@@ -151,6 +154,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl`
@@ -178,6 +182,7 @@ agent could not have known at decision time.
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-02.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-03.jsonl`
 - `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-04.jsonl`
+- `replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl`
 
 ## Conventions
 

data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl

@@ -2318,3 +2318,23 @@
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 77.0}
 {"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 80.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 69.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 53.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 64.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 53.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 95.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 74.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 73.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 54.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "gfsmos", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}

data/baseline-nbm.jsonl

@@ -2318,3 +2318,23 @@
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 60.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 84.0}
 {"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "runtime": "2026-10-03T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 87.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 67.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 65.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 51.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 86.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 88.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 93.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 75.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 90.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 79.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 68.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 55.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 71.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 58.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 89.0}
+{"source": "nbm", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-05", "runtime": "2026-10-04T12:00:00", "value": 72.0}

data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl

@@ -26140,3 +26140,123 @@
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "lead": 4, "mean": 71.02, "spread": 2.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.9, "icon_seamless": 67.6, "gem_seamless": 70.0, "ukmo_seamless": 71.3, "jma_seamless": 73.5}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "lead": 5, "mean": 81.28, "spread": 5.44, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 83.6, "icon_seamless": 75.4, "gem_seamless": 74.3, "ukmo_seamless": 88.6, "jma_seamless": 83.3}}
 {"type": "guidance", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-03", "lead": 5, "mean": 69.63, "spread": 4.5, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.9, "icon_seamless": 61.1, "gem_seamless": 69.8, "ukmo_seamless": 69.1, "jma_seamless": 73.6}}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 64.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "phl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 61.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 62.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "nyc", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 56.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 90.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "mia", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 79.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 78.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 70.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 76.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 72.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 74.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "chi", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 52.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 80.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "sat", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 73.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 78.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "dal", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 70.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 81.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "den", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 45.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 102.0}
+{"type": "settlement", "station": "lax", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "value": 75.0}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 1, "mean": 75.13, "spread": 2.74, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 80.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 73.9, "icon_seamless": 75.1, "gem_seamless": 72.1, "ukmo_seamless": 75.5, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.7, "jma_seamless": 73.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 1, "mean": 69.49, "spread": 0.61, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.5, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.2, "icon_seamless": 69.2, "gem_seamless": 68.7, "ukmo_seamless": 69.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 69.1, "jma_seamless": 69.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 2, "mean": 73.8, "spread": 1.81, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 72.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.8, "icon_seamless": 73.6, "gem_seamless": 72.7, "ukmo_seamless": 76.6, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.7, "jma_seamless": 74.1}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 2, "mean": 69.19, "spread": 0.79, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.7, "icon_seamless": 68.8, "gem_seamless": 68.2, "ukmo_seamless": 69.4, "meteofrance_seamless": 70.1, "jma_seamless": 69.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 3, "mean": 75.64, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.0, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 73.4, "gem_seamless": 72.7, "ukmo_seamless": 77.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 78.0, "jma_seamless": 76.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 3, "mean": 68.6, "spread": 1.72, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 68.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.0, "icon_seamless": 66.7, "gem_seamless": 66.6, "ukmo_seamless": 67.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.4, "jma_seamless": 69.9}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 4, "mean": 75.88, "spread": 3.7, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.4, "ecmwf_ifs025": 82.5, "icon_seamless": 74.5, "gem_seamless": 74.5, "ukmo_seamless": 75.6, "jma_seamless": 76.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 4, "mean": 68.67, "spread": 2.09, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 69.2, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.6, "icon_seamless": 64.7, "gem_seamless": 69.7, "ukmo_seamless": 68.2, "jma_seamless": 70.6}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 5, "mean": 76.45, "spread": 4.19, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 73.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.7, "icon_seamless": 81.7, "gem_seamless": 73.1, "ukmo_seamless": 76.8, "jma_seamless": 81.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "atl", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 5, "mean": 67.1, "spread": 2.51, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 63.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 69.8, "icon_seamless": 65.3, "gem_seamless": 65.6, "ukmo_seamless": 68.8, "jma_seamless": 69.3}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 1, "mean": 77.39, "spread": 2.37, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 74.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 80.1, "icon_seamless": 80.0, "gem_seamless": 76.3, "ukmo_seamless": 79.3, "meteofrance_seamless": 74.6, "jma_seamless": 76.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 1, "mean": 72.17, "spread": 1.04, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.8, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.4, "icon_seamless": 74.1, "gem_seamless": 70.9, "ukmo_seamless": 71.9, "meteofrance_seamless": 71.4, "jma_seamless": 72.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 2, "mean": 79.76, "spread": 2.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 81.7, "ecmwf_ifs025": 81.9, "icon_seamless": 80.6, "gem_seamless": 79.4, "ukmo_seamless": 82.0, "meteofrance_seamless": 75.0, "jma_seamless": 77.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 2, "mean": 71.71, "spread": 1.62, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 72.4, "icon_seamless": 73.2, "gem_seamless": 71.5, "ukmo_seamless": 71.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 68.7, "jma_seamless": 73.5}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 3, "mean": 78.91, "spread": 2.02, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 82.1, "ecmwf_ifs025": 77.0, "icon_seamless": 80.2, "gem_seamless": 78.8, "ukmo_seamless": 79.8, "meteofrance_seamless": 76.1, "jma_seamless": 78.4}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 3, "mean": 71.63, "spread": 2.53, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 71.6, "ecmwf_ifs025": 71.5, "icon_seamless": 74.4, "gem_seamless": 69.6, "ukmo_seamless": 72.1, "meteofrance_seamless": 67.5, "jma_seamless": 74.7}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "high", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 4, "mean": 78.62, "spread": 1.88, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 78.3, "ecmwf_ifs025": 78.5, "icon_seamless": 79.3, "gem_seamless": 75.2, "ukmo_seamless": 80.6, "jma_seamless": 79.8}}
+{"type": "guidance", "station": "aus", "kind": "low", "target_date": "2026-10-04", "lead": 4, "mean": 71.62, "spread": 2.03, "models": {"gfs_seamless": 70.9, "ecmwf_ifs025": 70.2, "icon_seamless": 71.8, "gem_seamless": 69.0, "ukmo_seamless": 73.3, "jma_seamless": 74.5}}
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replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.json

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+   "n": 57,
+   "win_rate": 0.45614035087719296,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.004736842105263168,
+   "total_pnl": -0.2700000000000006,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12357217909980554,
+   "avg_win": 0.5138461538461538,
+   "avg_loss": -0.4396774193548388,
+   "fees": 1.1000000000000005
+  },
+  "aus": {
+   "n": 123,
+   "win_rate": 0.3008130081300813,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.04447154471544716,
+   "total_pnl": -5.470000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13534663732821292,
+   "avg_win": 0.5218918918918919,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2881395348837209,
+   "fees": 2.0700000000000007
+  },
+  "chi": {
+   "n": 56,
+   "win_rate": 0.4642857142857143,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.06053571428571424,
+   "total_pnl": 3.3899999999999975,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.12982139649630173,
+   "avg_win": 0.5311538461538462,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3473333333333333,
+   "fees": 1.0300000000000005
+  },
+  "dal": {
+   "n": 76,
+   "win_rate": 0.3026315789473684,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.07171052631578949,
+   "total_pnl": -5.450000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.16083910345000357,
+   "avg_win": 0.5334782608695653,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33433962264150957,
+   "fees": 1.390000000000001
+  },
+  "den": {
+   "n": 80,
+   "win_rate": 0.4,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.07200000000000001,
+   "total_pnl": -5.760000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13315860086344164,
+   "avg_win": 0.4893749999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.4462499999999998,
+   "fees": 1.520000000000001
+  },
+  "lax": {
+   "n": 81,
+   "win_rate": 0.41975308641975306,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03185185185185184,
+   "total_pnl": 2.579999999999999,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.18021118010394316,
+   "avg_win": 0.5449999999999998,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3393617021276595,
+   "fees": 1.4800000000000009
+  },
+  "mia": {
+   "n": 62,
+   "win_rate": 0.4032258064516129,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03338709677419354,
+   "total_pnl": 2.0699999999999994,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1203988804677192,
+   "avg_win": 0.5143999999999999,
+   "avg_loss": -0.29162162162162153,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000005
+  },
+  "nyc": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.32857142857142857,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.034,
+   "total_pnl": -2.3800000000000003,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1359081873653197,
+   "avg_win": 0.555217391304348,
+   "avg_loss": -0.322340425531915,
+   "fees": 1.2300000000000006
+  },
+  "phl": {
+   "n": 50,
+   "win_rate": 0.34,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.07060000000000001,
+   "total_pnl": -3.5300000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11874265715699402,
+   "avg_win": 0.4894117647058824,
+   "avg_loss": -0.359090909090909,
+   "fees": 0.9100000000000006
+  },
+  "sat": {
+   "n": 24,
+   "win_rate": 0.4166666666666667,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.008750000000000016,
+   "total_pnl": -0.2100000000000004,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11946620781334678,
+   "avg_win": 0.517,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3842857142857143,
+   "fees": 0.4500000000000001
+  }
+ },
+ "by_week": {
+  "2026-W31": {
+   "n": 56,
+   "win_rate": 0.4107142857142857,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02892857142857144,
+   "total_pnl": -1.6200000000000006,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13551057949508896,
+   "avg_win": 0.491304347826087,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3915151515151515,
+   "fees": 1.0500000000000005
+  },
+  "2026-W32": {
+   "n": 71,
+   "win_rate": 0.352112676056338,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.06239436619718313,
+   "total_pnl": -4.430000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1415441717855739,
+   "avg_win": 0.5008,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36847826086956526,
+   "fees": 1.3100000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W33": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.30434782608695654,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.08884057971014495,
+   "total_pnl": -6.130000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13949050438379343,
+   "avg_win": 0.5047619047619049,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3485416666666666,
+   "fees": 1.2800000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W34": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.45714285714285713,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.05242857142857142,
+   "total_pnl": 3.6699999999999995,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13471800521779553,
+   "avg_win": 0.5459375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3631578947368422,
+   "fees": 1.2700000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W35": {
+   "n": 74,
+   "win_rate": 0.32432432432432434,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.05054054054054054,
+   "total_pnl": -3.7399999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13550710798559418,
+   "avg_win": 0.51375,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3214,
+   "fees": 1.290000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W36": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.28125,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.11921875,
+   "total_pnl": -7.63,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14306436903609657,
+   "avg_win": 0.5266666666666667,
+   "avg_loss": -0.37195652173913035,
+   "fees": 1.1700000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W37": {
+   "n": 72,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.02333333333333335,
+   "total_pnl": -1.680000000000001,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13287495301692961,
+   "avg_win": 0.5251851851851852,
+   "avg_loss": -0.35244444444444456,
+   "fees": 1.3300000000000007
+  },
+  "2026-W38": {
+   "n": 70,
+   "win_rate": 0.42857142857142855,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030714285714285694,
+   "total_pnl": 2.1499999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14105623371560858,
+   "avg_win": 0.5213333333333332,
+   "avg_loss": -0.33724999999999994,
+   "fees": 1.260000000000001
+  },
+  "2026-W39": {
+   "n": 69,
+   "win_rate": 0.42028985507246375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.03550724637681158,
+   "total_pnl": 2.4499999999999993,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.1489168003396218,
+   "avg_win": 0.5231034482758621,
+   "avg_loss": -0.318,
+   "fees": 1.2200000000000006
+  },
+  "2026-W40": {
+   "n": 64,
+   "win_rate": 0.375,
+   "pnl_per_contract": 0.030156249999999978,
+   "total_pnl": 1.9299999999999986,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13475419136359762,
+   "avg_win": 0.5570833333333333,
+   "avg_loss": -0.286,
+   "fees": 1.0800000000000007
+  }
+ },
+ "by_kind": {
+  "high": {
+   "n": 603,
+   "win_rate": 0.38474295190713104,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.021276948590381387,
+   "total_pnl": -12.829999999999977,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14233585648681943,
+   "avg_win": 0.5229310344827586,
+   "avg_loss": -0.36159029649595686,
+   "fees": 11.109999999999848
+  },
+  "low": {
+   "n": 76,
+   "win_rate": 0.27631578947368424,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.028947368421052656,
+   "total_pnl": -2.200000000000002,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.11038050542020941,
+   "avg_win": 0.5114285714285713,
+   "avg_loss": -0.2352727272727273,
+   "fees": 1.1500000000000006
+  }
+ },
+ "dataset": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl",
+  "digest": "48c71ccca6221b03"
+ },
+ "generated": "2026-10-06T10:51:11",
+ "sources": {
+  "nbm": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl",
+   "digest": "15b532425e761905",
+   "rows": 3429,
+   "paired_rows": 3429,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 674,
+    "win_rate": 0.3353115727002967,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.03864985163204751,
+    "total_pnl": -26.050000000000022,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.13547656781881814,
+    "avg_win": 0.5256637168141591,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3233258928571433,
+    "fees": 11.899999999999828,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 34.580000000000005,
+    "daily_mean": -0.3830882352941177,
+    "daily_sd": 1.3709668201488605,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.2794292536215586,
+    "t_stat": -2.3042326551383847,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.07257440476190476,
+     -0.0041329479768786315
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 679,
+    "win_rate": 0.37260677466863035,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.022135493372606747,
+    "total_pnl": -15.02999999999998,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.138759116161249,
+    "avg_win": 0.5219762845849801,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3452816901408454,
+    "fees": 12.259999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22102941176470595,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4159466425838316,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.1561000994792922,
+    "t_stat": -1.2872343966450925,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05780172413793108,
+     0.01216833095577744
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16336897365206512,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16293727822396695
+  },
+  "gfsmos": {
+   "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl",
+   "digest": "5a47af81232c22c9",
+   "rows": 3429,
+   "paired_rows": 3429,
+   "this_source": {
+    "n": 735,
+    "win_rate": 0.39183673469387753,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.00922448979591838,
+    "total_pnl": -6.780000000000009,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.14006509439730838,
+    "avg_win": 0.5076388888888889,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3422371364653244,
+    "fees": 13.2599999999998,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 22.480000000000004,
+    "daily_mean": -0.09970588235294134,
+    "daily_sd": 1.5894136444296711,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.06273123595130503,
+    "t_stat": -0.5172950237055493,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.044746743849493495,
+     0.026456043956043944
+    ]
+   },
+   "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+    "n": 679,
+    "win_rate": 0.37260677466863035,
+    "pnl_per_contract": -0.022135493372606747,
+    "total_pnl": -15.02999999999998,
+    "avg_edge_priced": 0.138759116161249,
+    "avg_win": 0.5219762845849801,
+    "avg_loss": -0.3452816901408454,
+    "fees": 12.259999999999824,
+    "days": 68,
+    "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+    "daily_mean": -0.22102941176470595,
+    "daily_sd": 1.4159466425838316,
+    "daily_sharpe": -0.1561000994792922,
+    "t_stat": -1.2872343966450925,
+    "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+     -0.05780172413793108,
+     0.01216833095577744
+    ]
+   },
+   "brier_source": 0.16444765240110804,
+   "brier_consensus": 0.16293727822396695
+  }
+ },
+ "simulation": [
+  {
+   "variant": "flat",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 682.87,
+   "return": -0.3171,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.3524,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 97,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 582
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 371.53
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.01,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 85,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 582,
+    "cash": 12
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1315.85
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 0.02,
+   "return": -1.0,
+   "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 91,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 582,
+    "cash": 6
+   },
+   "halted_on": null,
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1266.28
+  },
+  {
+   "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+   "bankroll": 1000.0,
+   "final": 1047.33,
+   "return": 0.0473,
+   "max_drawdown": 0.1729,
+   "days": 68,
+   "entered": 9,
+   "rejected": {
+    "edge": 80,
+    "kill-switch": 590
+   },
+   "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+   "daily_pnl_max_dd": 218.97
+  }
+ ]
+}

replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.md

@@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
+# Replay experiments · ['2026-07-29', '2026-10-04'] · 3429 rows · 68 days · stations atl, aus, chi, dal, den, lax, mia, nyc, phl, sat
+
+## E1 ablation
+
+| rule | min_edge | w | bias | n | win | PnL/ct | 95% CI (day bootstrap) | total | maxDD | t |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| naked model vs market | 0.080 | 0.00 | False | 1559 | 38% | -0.037 | [-0.054, -0.019] | -57.70 | 58.70 | -4.22 |
+| + learned station bias | 0.080 | 0.00 | True | 1461 | 36% | -0.040 | [-0.060, -0.020] | -58.83 | 59.77 | -4.01 |
+| + market-prior blend (production) | 0.080 | 0.50 | True | 679 | 37% | -0.022 | [-0.058, +0.012] | -15.03 | 24.66 | -1.29 |
+| control: no blend, edge bar raised to match trade count | 0.190 | 0.00 | True | 675 | 38% | -0.026 | [-0.061, +0.008] | -17.41 | 24.96 | -1.51 |
+
+## E2 grid (PnL/ct, n)
+
+| w \ min_edge | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 0.00 | -0.041 (2062) | -0.041 (1873) | -0.039 (1648) | -0.040 (1461) | -0.037 (1285) | -0.032 (1128) | -0.027 (917) | -0.021 (626) |
+| 0.25 | -0.040 (1915) | -0.037 (1617) | -0.040 (1368) | -0.031 (1165) | -0.028 (950) | -0.030 (799) | -0.017 (576) | -0.033 (361) |
+| 0.50 | -0.037 (1544) | -0.034 (1213) | -0.022 (922) | -0.022 (679) | -0.019 (501) | -0.036 (381) | -0.036 (236) | -0.116 (72) |
+| 0.75 | -0.027 (830) | -0.025 (446) | -0.035 (245) | -0.133 (94) | -0.169 (36) | -0.060 (18) | +0.076 (5) | — |
+
+## E6 by station
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| atl | 57 | 46% | -0.005 | -0.27 |
+| aus | 123 | 30% | -0.044 | -5.47 |
+| chi | 56 | 46% | +0.061 | +3.39 |
+| dal | 76 | 30% | -0.072 | -5.45 |
+| den | 80 | 40% | -0.072 | -5.76 |
+| lax | 81 | 42% | +0.032 | +2.58 |
+| mia | 62 | 40% | +0.033 | +2.07 |
+| nyc | 70 | 33% | -0.034 | -2.38 |
+| phl | 50 | 34% | -0.071 | -3.53 |
+| sat | 24 | 42% | -0.009 | -0.21 |
+
+## E6 by week
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 2026-W31 | 56 | 41% | -0.029 | -1.62 |
+| 2026-W32 | 71 | 35% | -0.062 | -4.43 |
+| 2026-W33 | 69 | 30% | -0.089 | -6.13 |
+| 2026-W34 | 70 | 46% | +0.052 | +3.67 |
+| 2026-W35 | 74 | 32% | -0.051 | -3.74 |
+| 2026-W36 | 64 | 28% | -0.119 | -7.63 |
+| 2026-W37 | 72 | 38% | -0.023 | -1.68 |
+| 2026-W38 | 70 | 43% | +0.031 | +2.15 |
+| 2026-W39 | 69 | 42% | +0.036 | +2.45 |
+| 2026-W40 | 64 | 38% | +0.030 | +1.93 |
+
+## E6 by kind
+
+| group | n | win | PnL/ct | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| high | 603 | 38% | -0.021 | -12.83 |
+| low | 76 | 28% | -0.029 | -2.20 |
+
+## sources
+
+```json
+{
+ "nbm": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl",
+  "digest": "15b532425e761905",
+  "rows": 3429,
+  "paired_rows": 3429,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 674,
+   "win_rate": 0.3353115727002967,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.03864985163204751,
+   "total_pnl": -26.050000000000022,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.13547656781881814,
+   "avg_win": 0.5256637168141591,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3233258928571433,
+   "fees": 11.899999999999828,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 34.580000000000005,
+   "daily_mean": -0.3830882352941177,
+   "daily_sd": 1.3709668201488605,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.2794292536215586,
+   "t_stat": -2.3042326551383847,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.07257440476190476,
+    -0.0041329479768786315
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 679,
+   "win_rate": 0.37260677466863035,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.022135493372606747,
+   "total_pnl": -15.02999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.138759116161249,
+   "avg_win": 0.5219762845849801,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3452816901408454,
+   "fees": 12.259999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22102941176470595,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4159466425838316,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.1561000994792922,
+   "t_stat": -1.2872343966450925,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05780172413793108,
+    0.01216833095577744
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16336897365206512,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16293727822396695
+ },
+ "gfsmos": {
+  "path": "/home/tom/.openthomas/paper/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-10-05.jsonl",
+  "digest": "5a47af81232c22c9",
+  "rows": 3429,
+  "paired_rows": 3429,
+  "this_source": {
+   "n": 735,
+   "win_rate": 0.39183673469387753,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.00922448979591838,
+   "total_pnl": -6.780000000000009,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.14006509439730838,
+   "avg_win": 0.5076388888888889,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3422371364653244,
+   "fees": 13.2599999999998,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 22.480000000000004,
+   "daily_mean": -0.09970588235294134,
+   "daily_sd": 1.5894136444296711,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.06273123595130503,
+   "t_stat": -0.5172950237055493,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.044746743849493495,
+    0.026456043956043944
+   ]
+  },
+  "consensus_on_same_rows": {
+   "n": 679,
+   "win_rate": 0.37260677466863035,
+   "pnl_per_contract": -0.022135493372606747,
+   "total_pnl": -15.02999999999998,
+   "avg_edge_priced": 0.138759116161249,
+   "avg_win": 0.5219762845849801,
+   "avg_loss": -0.3452816901408454,
+   "fees": 12.259999999999824,
+   "days": 68,
+   "max_drawdown": 24.660000000000007,
+   "daily_mean": -0.22102941176470595,
+   "daily_sd": 1.4159466425838316,
+   "daily_sharpe": -0.1561000994792922,
+   "t_stat": -1.2872343966450925,
+   "ci95_pnl_per_contract": [
+    -0.05780172413793108,
+    0.01216833095577744
+   ]
+  },
+  "brier_source": 0.16444765240110804,
+  "brier_consensus": 0.16293727822396695
+ }
+}
+```
+
+## simulation
+
+```json
+[
+ {
+  "variant": "flat",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 682.87,
+  "return": -0.3171,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.3524,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 97,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 582
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 371.53
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.01,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 85,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 582,
+   "cash": 12
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1315.85
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 0.02,
+  "return": -1.0,
+  "max_drawdown": 1.0,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 91,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 582,
+   "cash": 6
+  },
+  "halted_on": null,
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 1266.28
+ },
+ {
+  "variant": "kelly+caps+kill",
+  "bankroll": 1000.0,
+  "final": 1047.33,
+  "return": 0.0473,
+  "max_drawdown": 0.1729,
+  "days": 68,
+  "entered": 9,
+  "rejected": {
+   "edge": 80,
+   "kill-switch": 590
+  },
+  "halted_on": "2026-08-07",
+  "daily_pnl_max_dd": 218.97
+ }
+]
+```