plot_software_transfer_fixed_validation.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Plot the fixed-validation curves for the software-transfer arms."""

from pathlib import Path

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
from matplotlib.lines import Line2D


ARTIFACTS = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
INPUT = ARTIFACTS / "software-transfer-fixed-validation.csv"
OUTPUT = ARTIFACTS / "software-transfer-fixed-validation"

SERIES = {
    "factorial_constdenom_g4_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("constant_denominator", 4),
    "factorial_sequence_mean_g8_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("sequence_mean", 8),
    "factorial_sequence_mean_g16_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("sequence_mean", 16),
    "factorial_sequence_mean_g32_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("sequence_mean", 32),
    "factorial_constdenom_g8_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("constant_denominator", 8),
    "factorial_constdenom_g16_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("constant_denominator", 16),
    "factorial_constdenom_g32_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("constant_denominator", 32),
    "factorial_constdenom_g64_entropy_0.00003_lr_2e-6": ("constant_denominator", 64),
}

GROUP_COLORS = {4: "#E69F00", 8: "#0072B2", 16: "#D55E00", 32: "#009E73", 64: "#CC79A7"}
LOSS_STYLES = {"sequence_mean": "--", "constant_denominator": "-"}
# Non-paired Qwen3-Coder archive estimates published from marin issue #8809:
# https://github.com/marin-community/marin/issues/8809#issuecomment-5516287195
BASE_REFERENCES = {
    "BugsInPy": {"pass@1": 0.3049, "pass@16": 0.5761},
    "SWE-Gym": {"pass@1": 0.3943, "pass@16": 0.9084},
}
BASE_STYLES = {"pass@1": ":", "pass@16": "-."}


def main() -> None:
    frame = pd.read_csv(INPUT)
    frame = frame[
        frame["status"].isin(["authoritative", "authoritative_policy_stop", "authoritative_user_stop"])
    ].copy()
    frame = frame[frame["recipe"].isin(SERIES)].copy()

    # A restarted arm can have more than one authoritative attempt. Retain only
    # the latest attempt so disconnected histories are not presented as a curve.
    latest_attempts = frame.groupby(["dataset", "recipe"])["attempt"].transform("max")
    frame = frame[frame["attempt"] == latest_attempts]

    peaks = frame.groupby(["dataset", "recipe"])["pass_at_1"].max()
    leaders = peaks.groupby(level="dataset").idxmax().to_dict()

    plt.rcParams.update(
        {
            "font.family": "DejaVu Sans",
            "font.size": 12,
            "axes.titlesize": 17,
            "axes.titleweight": "bold",
            "axes.labelsize": 13,
            "legend.fontsize": 10.5,
        }
    )
    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(15.5, 8.5), sharey=True)

    for ax, dataset in zip(axes, ("BugsInPy", "SWE-Gym"), strict=True):
        panel = frame[frame["dataset"] == dataset]
        for recipe, (loss_reduction, group_size) in SERIES.items():
            series = panel[panel["recipe"] == recipe].sort_values("step")
            if series.empty:
                continue
            is_leader = leaders[dataset][1] == recipe
            ax.plot(
                series["step"],
                series["pass_at_1"],
                color=GROUP_COLORS[group_size],
                linestyle=LOSS_STYLES[loss_reduction],
                marker="o",
                markersize=6 if is_leader else 5,
                linewidth=3.0 if is_leader else 1.8,
                alpha=1.0 if is_leader else 0.72,
                zorder=3 if is_leader else 2,
            )
            peak_row = series.loc[series["pass_at_1"].idxmax()]
            ax.scatter(
                [peak_row["step"]],
                [peak_row["pass_at_1"]],
                marker="D",
                s=68 if is_leader else 48,
                color=GROUP_COLORS[group_size],
                edgecolor="white",
                linewidth=0.9,
                zorder=4,
            )
            stop_rows = series[series["status"].isin(["authoritative_policy_stop", "authoritative_user_stop"])]
            if not stop_rows.empty:
                stop_row = stop_rows.sort_values("step").iloc[-1]
                ax.scatter(
                    [stop_row["step"]],
                    [stop_row["pass_at_1"]],
                    marker="X",
                    s=105 if is_leader else 82,
                    color=GROUP_COLORS[group_size],
                    edgecolor="white",
                    linewidth=1.0,
                    zorder=5,
                )

        for metric, value in BASE_REFERENCES[dataset].items():
            ax.axhline(
                value,
                color="#555555",
                linestyle=BASE_STYLES[metric],
                linewidth=1.6,
                alpha=0.82,
                zorder=1,
            )
            ax.text(
                0.985,
                value + 0.008,
                f"Archive base {metric} {value:.4f}",
                transform=ax.get_yaxis_transform(),
                ha="right",
                va="bottom",
                fontsize=9.5,
                color="#444444",
                bbox={"facecolor": "white", "edgecolor": "none", "alpha": 0.82, "pad": 1.4},
                zorder=6,
            )

        ax.set_title(dataset, pad=10)
        ax.set_xlabel("Training step")
        ax.set_xlim(-0.35, max(8.8, float(panel["step"].max()) + 0.8))
        ax.set_ylim(0, 1.0)
        ax.set_xticks(sorted(panel["step"].unique()))
        ax.grid(True, color="#CFD5DC", linewidth=0.7, alpha=0.65)
        ax.set_axisbelow(True)

    axes[0].set_ylabel("Fixed-validation pass@1")
    fig.suptitle("Software-transfer performance so far", fontsize=21, fontweight="bold", y=0.96)
    fig.text(
        0.5,
        0.905,
        "Seed-42 disjoint 128-task validation; matched factorial arms only. Diamonds mark peaks; X marks termination; bold lines lead.\n"
        "Gray lines are non-paired Qwen3-Coder archive references from Marin issue #8809.",
        ha="center",
        va="top",
        fontsize=12.5,
        color="#444444",
    )
    legend_handles = [
        *[
            Line2D(
                [0],
                [0],
                color=GROUP_COLORS[group_size],
                marker="o",
                linestyle="none",
                markersize=7,
                label=f"Group {group_size}",
            )
            for group_size in GROUP_COLORS
        ],
        Line2D([0], [0], color="#333333", linestyle="--", linewidth=2.2, label="Sequence mean"),
        Line2D([0], [0], color="#333333", linestyle="-", linewidth=2.2, label="Constant denominator"),
        Line2D(
            [0],
            [0],
            color="#555555",
            marker="X",
            markeredgecolor="white",
            linestyle="none",
            markersize=9,
            label="Terminated",
        ),
        Line2D(
            [0],
            [0],
            color="#555555",
            linestyle=BASE_STYLES["pass@1"],
            linewidth=1.8,
            label="Archive base pass@1",
        ),
        Line2D(
            [0],
            [0],
            color="#555555",
            linestyle=BASE_STYLES["pass@16"],
            linewidth=1.8,
            label="Archive base pass@16",
        ),
    ]
    fig.legend(
        handles=legend_handles,
        loc="lower center",
        bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, 0.025),
        ncol=5,
        frameon=False,
        title="Color = group size; line = loss reduction",
    )
    fig.tight_layout(rect=(0, 0.18, 1, 0.84), w_pad=3.0)
    fig.savefig(OUTPUT.with_suffix(".png"), dpi=180, bbox_inches="tight")
    fig.savefig(OUTPUT.with_suffix(".svg"), bbox_inches="tight")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()