Blame for scripts/analyze.py

"""Reproduce the leaderboard and the report's headline numbers from the episode and task tables.

    uv run python scripts/analyze.py

Scores are rounded to two decimals per episode, as in the report, and the 95% intervals are bootstrap intervals over
the 20 plates (10,000 resamples, seed 20261105, drawn in the report's order), so every number printed here matches
the report and the `leaderboard` config exactly. The script exits with an error if one does not.
"""
import json
from pathlib import Path

import numpy as np
import pyarrow.parquet as pq

DATA = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "data"
MODELS = ["claude-opus-5.5", "claude-sonnet-5.5", "gpt-6.1-sol", "gpt-6.1-terra", "claude-haiku-5.5", "gpt-6-luna"]
EFFORTS = ["medium", "high", "max"]
rng = np.random.default_rng(20261105)


def r(x, d=2):
    return float(round(float(x), d))


def boot(v):
    m = v[rng.integers(0, len(v), size=(10000, len(v)))].mean(axis=1)
    return r(np.percentile(m, 2.5)), r(np.percentile(m, 97.5))


def read(path):
    return pq.read_table(path).to_pylist()


episodes = [x for e in EFFORTS for x in read(DATA / "episodes" / f"{e}_effort.parquet")]
tasks = {t["task_id"]: t for t in read(DATA / "tasks" / "tasks.parquet")}
board = {(x["model"], x["effort"]): x for x in read(DATA / "leaderboard" / "leaderboard.parquet") if x["kind"] == "model"}
refs = {x["model"]: x for x in read(DATA / "leaderboard" / "leaderboard.parquet") if x["kind"] == "reference"}
plates = sorted(tasks)
name = {x["model"]: x["model_name"] for x in episodes}


def pick(m=None, e=None):
    return sorted((x for x in episodes if (m is None or x["model"] == m) and (e is None or x["effort"] == e)),
                  key=lambda x: x["task_id"])


rows, failures = {}, []
for m in MODELS:
    for e in EFFORTS:
        xs = pick(m, e)
        s = np.array([r(x["score"]) for x in xs])
        lo, hi = boot(s)
        rows[(m, e)] = dict(score=r(s.mean()), ci_low=lo, ci_high=hi,
                            cost_usd_per_episode=r(np.mean([x["cost_usd"] for x in xs]), 4),
                            minutes_per_episode=r(np.mean([x["seconds"] for x in xs]) / 60, 1),
                            plates_above_blob=sum(r(x["score_before_peeks"]) > r(tasks[x["task_id"]]["blob_score"]) for x in xs))
for m in MODELS:
    a = np.array([r(x["score"]) for x in pick(m, "medium")])
    b = np.array([r(x["score"]) for x in pick(m, "max")])
    lo, hi = boot(b - a)
    rows[(m, "max")].update(gain_vs_medium=r((b - a).mean()), gain_ci_low=lo, gain_ci_high=hi,
                            plates_improved_vs_medium=int((b > a).sum()))
search = np.array([r(tasks[t]["search_score"]) for t in plates])
slo, shi = boot(search)

for key, row in rows.items():
    for k, v in row.items():
        if board[key][k] != v:
            failures.append(f"{key} {k}: {v} != {board[key][k]}")
if (r(search.mean()), slo, shi) != (refs["search"]["score"], refs["search"]["ci_low"], refs["search"]["ci_high"]):
    failures.append("search reference differs")
for ref, col in (("blob", "blob_score"), ("rest", "rest_score")):
    if r(np.mean([r(tasks[t][col]) for t in plates])) != refs[ref]["score"]:
        failures.append(f"{ref} reference differs")

usd = lambda v: f"${v:.3f}" if v < 0.1 else f"${v:.2f}"
print("| Model | Medium | High | Max | Cost per episode (medium · high · max) |")
print("| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |")
for m in sorted(MODELS, key=lambda m: -rows[(m, "max")]["score"]):
    sc = [f"{rows[(m, e)]['score']:.1f} [{rows[(m, e)]['ci_low']:.1f}, {rows[(m, e)]['ci_high']:.1f}]" for e in EFFORTS]
    cost = " · ".join(usd(rows[(m, e)]["cost_usd_per_episode"]) for e in EFFORTS)
    print(f"| {name[m]} | {' | '.join(sc)} | {cost} |")
print()
print("| Model | Max minus medium [95% CI] | Plates better at max |")
print("| --- | ---: | ---: |")
for m in sorted(MODELS, key=lambda m: -rows[(m, "max")]["gain_vs_medium"]):
    g = rows[(m, "max")]
    print(f"| {name[m]} | {g['gain_vs_medium']:+.1f} [{g['gain_ci_low']:+.1f}, {g['gain_ci_high']:+.1f}] | {g['plates_improved_vs_medium']} of 20 |")
print()
print(f"References: blob {refs['blob']['score']:.1f}, blind search {r(search.mean()):.1f} [{slo:.1f}, {shi:.1f}], "
      f"hands at rest {refs['rest']['score']:.1f}")
two = [x for x in episodes if x["both_hands_cast_shadow"]]
moves = np.array([[x["moves_better"], x["moves_worse"], x["moves_unchanged"]] for x in episodes]).sum(axis=0)
print(f"Episodes: {len(episodes)}, solved {sum(x['solved'] for x in episodes)}, total cost {usd(sum(x['cost_usd'] for x in episodes))}")
print(f"Final poses with both hands casting a shadow: {len(two)}, hands together: "
      f"{sum(1 for x in two if x['hand_gap_cm'] < 2 and x['hand_depth_gap_cm'] < 5)}, "
      f"median gap {np.median([x['hand_gap_cm'] for x in two]):.1f} cm, median depth gap {np.median([x['hand_depth_gap_cm'] for x in two]):.1f} cm")
print(f"Accepted hand moves: {moves.sum()}, better {moves[0]}, worse {moves[1]}, unchanged {moves[2]}")
if failures:
    raise SystemExit("MISMATCH\n" + "\n".join(failures))
print("\nAll leaderboard numbers reproduced exactly.")