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File size: 5,792 Bytes
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"what": "[TBC: 22] the six cuts' shares of their own ceiling at 20k-30k steps from the first checkpoint",
"definition": {
"start_point": "step 1000, the first checkpoint (4.19 B tokens)",
"window": "20k-30k steps of gap",
"excess": "median over constructs of the change beyond the twin turnover at the pair's earlier reference (RATE_READINGS.json, fit-free primary), MULTIPLIED BACK by the B14 headroom that rate_readings.py divides the six cuts by, so that the only normalisation left is the ceiling below",
"b14_headroom": "twin_ceiling_last_ref - median_chance_kept_fraction, per band, from B14_BANDS.json; a scalar, so it commutes with the median and with the bootstrap quantiles",
"ceiling": "twin agreement minus chance, chance measured ACROSS the pair's two references (CEILINGS_PAIRWISE_169.json, all 169 constructs)",
"share": "median excess / ceiling",
"interval": "the excess's own 95% interval divided by the same ceiling; the ceiling is held fixed, being a property of the reference pair rather than of the resampled construct sample",
"also_given": "the within-checkpoint ceiling, for comparison only"
},
"fixed_before_computing": true,
"start_iter": 1000,
"window": "20k-30k",
"cuts": {
"q1pct": {
"label": "top 1% of the standardised entries",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.9247344857341064,
"b14_headroom": 0.8354207448725871,
"median_excess_raw": 0.772542372881356,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.7627118644067796,
0.7823728813559322
],
"twin_agreement": 0.8264406779661017,
"chance_cross": 0.025423728860914707,
"ceiling_cross": 0.801016949105187,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9644519678945123,
"share_ci95": [
0.9521794329805409,
0.9767245028084837
],
"ceiling_within": 0.7308474564804869,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0570500944227919,
"median_twin_floor": 0.17355932203389834
},
"q2pct": {
"label": "top 2%",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.920147532342009,
"b14_headroom": 0.8260503221099843,
"median_excess_raw": 0.7600881654798237,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.7426246185147508,
0.7694133604611734
],
"twin_agreement": 0.8341810783316378,
"chance_cross": 0.04120040684938431,
"ceiling_cross": 0.7929806714822535,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9585204189895997,
"share_ci95": [
0.9364977548905747,
0.9702800939939334
],
"ceiling_within": 0.7139708330799822,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0645927400155788,
"median_twin_floor": 0.1658189216683622
},
"q5pct": {
"label": "top 5% (the carrier set)",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.9133805248452099,
"b14_headroom": 0.7936172520993805,
"median_excess_raw": 0.7248745422487455,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.68988200189882,
0.7345720873457209
],
"twin_agreement": 0.8436186084361861,
"chance_cross": 0.08144581690430641,
"ceiling_cross": 0.7621727915318797,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9510632632159841,
"share_ci95": [
0.9051517051825433,
0.9637868151516081
],
"ceiling_within": 0.6736742177816222,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0760016089612625,
"median_twin_floor": 0.15638139156381392
},
"abs1sd": {
"label": "|e| >= 1 sigma0",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.8683994555451926,
"b14_headroom": 0.7534391596041885,
"median_excess_raw": 0.6542861559867048,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.6488804192472607,
0.6630217861300515
],
"twin_agreement": 0.8671750567112312,
"chance_cross": 0.15966589003801346,
"ceiling_cross": 0.7075091666732177,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9247741044306562,
"share_ci95": [
0.9171335861249182,
0.937121124871992
],
"ceiling_within": 0.6507786355171546,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0053897289771396,
"median_twin_floor": 0.13282494328876882
},
"abs2sd": {
"label": "|e| >= 2 sigma0",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.8934527755670614,
"b14_headroom": 0.8372030187056015,
"median_excess_raw": 0.748001360775642,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.7429478138222848,
0.7560183416125333
],
"twin_agreement": 0.856181934657271,
"chance_cross": 0.06424073502421379,
"ceiling_cross": 0.7919411996330572,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9445162862119378,
"share_ci95": [
0.9381350713493966,
0.9546394883393254
],
"ceiling_within": 0.7395667882587267,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0114047475506225,
"median_twin_floor": 0.143818065342729
},
"abs3sd": {
"label": "|e| >= 3 sigma0",
"n_pairs": 2,
"n_constructs": 169,
"median_excess_as_stored": 0.9175206238559166,
"b14_headroom": 0.8582168874633666,
"median_excess_raw": 0.7874316939890711,
"excess_ci95_raw": [
0.7779876446925539,
0.791728212703102
],
"twin_agreement": 0.8611111111111112,
"chance_cross": 0.03526146896183491,
"ceiling_cross": 0.8258496421492763,
"share_of_ceiling": 0.9534806989075852,
"share_ci95": [
0.9420451435540235,
0.9586832424394189
],
"ceiling_within": 0.782043933040566,
"share_of_within_ceiling": 1.0068893328378083,
"median_twin_floor": 0.13888888888888884
}
},
"range_of_shares": [
0.9247741044306562,
0.9644519678945123
],
"spread": 0.039677863463856045,
"minutes": 3.205140431722005e-05,
"provenance": {
"inputs": [
"validation/paper2/RATE_READINGS.json",
"validation/paper2/CEILINGS_PAIRWISE_169.json",
"validation/paper2/B14_BANDS.json"
],
"reference": null,
"battery_prompt_hash": "570b42db13f8fe5772b8d1a9ad7d55d6fa1279dae5948ad94e8363789bcbc1ad",
"code_commit": "f7c2832",
"design": "9-Paper-1/2610-18Oct_PAPER-1-Design.md sha256 47f6a664\u2026"
}
} |