Leaderboard analysis: correction (no-update runs score 0-2)

analysis/2026-10-19/leaderboard-analysis.md

@@ -52,3 +52,13 @@ Across 131 runs, no environment has shown training that carries over to held-out
 Identical requests have scored 5/3/2 (rca-umb v4), 3/3/1 (dnakhla terminal-desk-v5), 3/3/2 (Profa-QE) and 3/4
 (ajinkyamulay). A light-touch run, one whose tasks are mostly solved so few steps carry a gradient, is a cheap test of
 whether "change the model less" beats the field mean; it cannot exceed the untrained model's own ability.
+
+## Correction (2026-10-19, 14:30 EDT)
+
+The untrained 4/40 reference is the wrong comparison. naklitechie's null controls (#229) give every reply the same
+reward, so every group has zero advantage (Trackio: loss 0 and grad_norm 0 on all 236 steps): the model leaves the
+pipeline unchanged. Those runs, with the other runs that trained with no updates, scored 0, 1, 2 and 2 (mean 1.25),
+against about 2.9 for trained runs. Inside this pipeline an unchanged model scores well below 4/40, so training helps on
+average, and "change the model less" is not supported. The 0–25-step runs above trained with gradients on most of
+their steps; their 3.75 (n=4) says nothing about zero-gradient runs, and terminal-habits-v1 (93% zero-gradient steps)
+scored 2/40 (#238).