Datasets:
| replicate,pmid,run_id,result_status,fidelity,effect_count,effect_labels,effect_estimates,effects_json,target_json,human_scientific_interventions,schema_valid,semantic_valid,secret_scan_passed,has_aeris_record,directory | |
| 8404,33227571,codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8404-20260925T152739Z,completed_blocker,none,0,[],[],[],"{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""temperature variation"", ""rainfall"", ""relative humidity""], ""effect_scale"": ""The supplied abstract reports cluster summaries and p-values; no article-verified effect scale or regression contrast was recovered."", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Daily municipality-region air-pollution and weather features clustered hierarchically; no usable daily pollutant series was recovered."", ""geography"": ""39 municipalities of metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil"", ""model"": ""Article model form not recoverable from supplied abstract; pollutant-weather cluster comparison cannot be fit without pollutant observations."", ""named_outcome_source"": ""DataSUS SIH-RD"", ""outcome"": ""Daily acute myocardial infarction admissions and in-hospital mortality"", ""period"": ""2012-01-01 to 2015-12-31"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2, PM2.5, and PM10"", ""population"": ""Acute myocardial infarction patients admitted in the 39 metropolitan Sao Paulo municipalities"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification-evidence.md"", ""/study/article.xml"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8404-20260925T152739Z | |
| 8404,33398753,codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8404-20260925T154625Z,completed_fit,bounded,3,"[""2020-03-17 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days"", ""2020-04-07 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days"", ""2020-04-27 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days""]","[1.3435653925850417, 1.2383041226221332, 1.225603992989012]","[{""ci_high"": 1.7293838617680655, ""ci_low"": 1.043821446504452, ""contrast"": ""doubling of 2018 annual PM10 exceedance days"", ""estimate"": 1.3435653925850417, ""label"": ""2020-03-17 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.7902581315615531, ""native_ci_low"": 0.061874949193850004, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": 0.4260665403777016, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.5026851259342286, ""ci_low"": 1.0204380635960901, ""contrast"": ""doubling of 2018 annual PM10 exceedance days"", ""estimate"": 1.2383041226221332, ""label"": ""2020-04-07 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.5875427372358715, ""native_ci_low"": 0.029188619357924717, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": 0.3083656782968981, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.488189602059125, ""ci_low"": 1.0093506536749286, ""contrast"": ""doubling of 2018 annual PM10 exceedance days"", ""estimate"": 1.225603992989012, ""label"": ""2020-04-27 infections: adjusted outcome ratio per doubling PM10 exceedance days"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.5735583440028786, ""native_ci_low"": 0.0134274612965401, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": 0.2934929026497094, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""2019 municipal population density""], ""effect_scale"": ""Outcome ratio per doubling of annual PM10 exceedance days"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Nearest EEA E1a validated daily PM10 monitor within 50 km of municipal-capital centroid"", ""geography"": ""Italian provincial-capital cities"", ""model"": ""OLS log(infections) on log(PM10 exceedance days) and log(2019 municipal population density)"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Civil Protection Department provincial daily COVID-19 archive"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 infections on 17 March, 7 April, and 27 April 2020"", ""period"": ""2018 exposure; first-wave 2020 infection outcomes"", ""pollutant"": ""PM10"", ""population"": ""Residents of 55 provincial-capital cities"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.md (Data and study design; Table 6)"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8404-20260925T154625Z | |
| 8404,33484722,codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8404-20260925T160112Z,completed_fit,source_substitution,4,"[""Day-60 case-rate ratio"", ""Day-60 death-rate ratio"", ""Day-80 case-rate ratio"", ""Day-80 death-rate ratio""]","[1.1346876449, 1.0569050086, 1.0752178952, 1.0262037331]","[{""ci_high"": 1.3458946658, ""ci_low"": 0.9566246783, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase in 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.1346876449, ""label"": ""Day-60 case-rate ratio"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.2970589709, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0443441502, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.1263574104, ""native_scale"": ""log rate difference"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2903340931, ""ci_low"": 0.8657046289, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase in 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.0569050086, ""label"": ""Day-60 death-rate ratio"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.2549011717, ""native_ci_low"": -0.1442115037, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.055344834, ""native_scale"": ""log rate difference"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2243199544, ""ci_low"": 0.9442740176, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase in 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.0752178952, ""label"": ""Day-80 case-rate ratio"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.2023855506, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0573388821, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0725233343, ""native_scale"": ""log rate difference"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2480588782, ""ci_low"": 0.8437855939, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase in 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.0262037331, ""label"": ""Day-80 death-rate ratio"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.2215894469, ""native_ci_low"": -0.1698568523, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0258662973, ""native_scale"": ""log rate difference"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""age 65+ percentage"", ""population density"", ""GDP per capita (thousand USD)"", ""physicians per 100,000"", ""hospital beds per 100,000"", ""population exposed above WHO PM2.5 guideline percentage""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5, from exponentiated OLS coefficient on log rate"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Direct national population-weighted annual World Bank PM2.5 indicator (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3)"", ""geography"": ""36 OECD countries listed in article Methods 2.1"", ""model"": ""Separate conventional OLS regressions of log case/death rate at days 60 and 80, adjusted for article Table 1 covariates"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""WHO daily COVID-19 data in article; independently recovered from JHU CSSE global time series"", ""outcome"": ""Log cumulative confirmed COVID-19 case rate and log death rate at days 60 and 80 after each country's first confirmed case"", ""period"": ""2017 annual PM2.5; country-specific 2020 epidemic day 60 and day 80 outcomes"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""National populations of the 36 countries"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification.md"", ""/study/article.md"", ""/study/supplements/mmc1.docx""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8404-20260925T160112Z | |
| 8404,34004167,codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8404-20260925T134455Z,completed_fit,bounded,4,"[""NO2 STAP\u2014incident cases"", ""NO2 LTAP\u2014incident cases"", ""NO2 STAP\u2014incident deaths"", ""NO2 LTAP\u2014incident deaths""]","[1.0056411416, 1.2700541556, 1.0053099211, 1.3954764404]","[{""ci_high"": 1.008018703, ""ci_low"": 1.003269188, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""estimate"": 1.0056411416, ""label"": ""NO2 STAP\u2014incident cases"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.007986722, ""native_ci_low"": 0.003263858, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0056252899, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2722819954, ""ci_low"": 1.2678302168, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""estimate"": 1.2700541556, ""label"": ""NO2 LTAP\u2014incident cases"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.240812, ""native_ci_low"": 0.237307, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.2390595418, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.0065197422, ""ci_low"": 1.0041015542, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""estimate"": 1.0053099211, ""label"": ""NO2 STAP\u2014incident deaths"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0065, ""native_ci_low"": 0.004092, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0052958732, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.3966904175, ""ci_low"": 1.3942635186, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""estimate"": 1.3954764404, ""label"": ""NO2 LTAP\u2014incident deaths"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.334105, ""native_ci_low"": 0.332367, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.3332358913, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""lockdown""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 1 microgram per cubic metre"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted mean of monitor-level daily means within each documented region polygon; LTAP is 2013\u201319 May 2020 monitor-day mean"", ""geography"": ""Lombardia and Veneto, Italy"", ""model"": ""Pollutant-specific Poisson GEE with log link, AR(1) working correlation, STAP, LTAP, and lockdown"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Protezione Civile regional COVID-19 series"", ""outcome"": ""Incident daily reported COVID-19 cases and deaths"", ""period"": ""24 February\u201319 May 2020; 86 of the article's intended 89 days"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2 (with all five article pollutants in native output)"", ""population"": ""Regional residents"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt"", ""/study/supplements/mmc1.docx"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8404-20260925T134455Z | |
| 8404,34488764,codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8404-20260925T134647Z,completed_fit,source_substitution,4,"[""Continuous PM2.5, fully adjusted"", ""PM2.5 Q2 vs Q1, fully adjusted"", ""PM2.5 Q3 vs Q1, fully adjusted"", ""PM2.5 Q4 vs Q1, fully adjusted""]","[1.355144, 1.390285, 2.840383, 3.747079]","[{""ci_high"": 1.539952, ""ci_low"": 1.192515, ""contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher 1999-2016 PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.355144, ""label"": ""Continuous PM2.5, fully adjusted"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.431753, ""native_ci_low"": 0.176063, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.303908, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 2.058922, ""ci_low"": 0.938788, ""contrast"": ""Q2 vs Q1"", ""estimate"": 1.390285, ""label"": ""PM2.5 Q2 vs Q1, fully adjusted"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.722183, ""native_ci_low"": -0.063165, ""native_contrast"": ""Q2 vs Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 0.329509, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 4.711151, ""ci_low"": 1.712485, ""contrast"": ""Q3 vs Q1"", ""estimate"": 2.840383, ""label"": ""PM2.5 Q3 vs Q1, fully adjusted"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 1.549933, ""native_ci_low"": 0.537945, ""native_contrast"": ""Q3 vs Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 1.043939, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 7.635316, ""ci_low"": 1.838902, ""contrast"": ""Q4 vs Q1"", ""estimate"": 3.747079, ""label"": ""PM2.5 Q4 vs Q1, fully adjusted"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 2.032901, ""native_ci_low"": 0.609051, ""native_contrast"": ""Q4 vs Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 1.320976, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""resuscitation beds"", ""intensive-care beds"", ""medical density"", ""age 60+ share"", ""male share"", ""unemployment"", ""poverty"", ""urban population"", ""population density"", ""diabetes""], ""effect_scale"": ""mortality rate ratio"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted department-polygon mean of annual PM2.5 rasters, then mean across 1999-2016"", ""geography"": ""96 mainland French departments (NUTS 3)"", ""model"": ""NB2 negative-binomial count regression with log population offset"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""French Ministry of Health data.gouv.fr hospital dataset"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative in-hospital COVID-19 deaths on 1 May 2020"", ""period"": ""PM2.5 annual means 1999-2016; COVID-19 outcome through 2020-05-01"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Residents of mainland French departments"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification.md""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8404-20260925T134647Z | |
| 8404,36383802,codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8404-20260925T141131Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,16,"[""O3 lag 0 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 1 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 2 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 3 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 4 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 5 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 6 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""O3 lag 7 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 0 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 1 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 2 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 3 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 4 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 5 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 6 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""NO2 lag 7 (bounded sensitivity)""]","[0.7208039688831658, 0.6630714902161028, 0.6923651565024976, 0.6327324048344833, 0.6169544208984002, 0.6390911518979315, 0.642687356210198, 0.6452513745743549, 1.8165323370322273, 1.991801601212031, 2.146160516407075, 2.198039817831768, 2.4180819230403143, 2.107035625593241, 1.931819942699688, 1.5003016805215073]","[{""ci_high"": 1.030532275629776, ""ci_low"": 0.5041650551315464, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.7208039688831658, ""label"": ""O3 lag 0 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0030075441216736096, ""native_ci_low"": -0.06848515741836553, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.03273880664834596, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 0.9550334811032413, ""ci_low"": 0.4603648037862607, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6630714902161028, ""label"": ""O3 lag 1 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": -0.004600888036910077, ""native_ci_low"": -0.07757360520890813, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.0410872466229091, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.0220035581129423, ""ci_low"": 0.4690487681117765, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6923651565024976, ""label"": ""O3 lag 2 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0021764973294965337, ""native_ci_low"": -0.07570485327609738, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.03676417797330042, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 0.9936668856256081, ""ci_low"": 0.40290192006908815, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6327324048344833, ""label"": ""O3 lag 3 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": -0.000635325361767955, ""native_ci_low"": -0.09090621211742297, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.045770768739595465, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 0.9804171877571958, ""ci_low"": 0.38823550037593346, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6169544208984002, ""label"": ""O3 lag 4 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": -0.001977709610976354, ""native_ci_low"": -0.09461431637526335, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.04829601299311985, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.0304684188354982, ""ci_low"": 0.39636100725511625, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6390911518979315, ""label"": ""O3 lag 5 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0030013474430922032, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0925429848531381, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.04477081870502295, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.0293588717046047, ""ci_low"": 0.40126631166879, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.642687356210198, ""label"": ""O3 lag 6 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0028936153780494064, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0913129953230131, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.04420968997248184, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.029290084029988, ""ci_low"": 0.4045014547890703, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 0.6452513745743549, ""label"": ""O3 lag 7 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.0028869325801444204, ""native_ci_low"": -0.09050999459781414, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": -0.043811531008834864, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 6.403133005982191, ""ci_low"": 0.5153398700918602, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 1.8165323370322273, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 0 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.18567874027685533, ""native_ci_low"": -0.06629286540583722, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.05969293743550906, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 6.387637360790225, ""ci_low"": 0.6210862318113832, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 1.991801601212031, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 1 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.18543644599232945, ""native_ci_low"": -0.047628534708910916, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.06890395564170927, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 6.796504699612165, ""ci_low"": 0.6777020197525235, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 2.146160516407075, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 2 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.1916408465268269, ""native_ci_low"": -0.03890475865397691, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.07636804393642499, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 7.032985404877874, ""ci_low"": 0.6869599128448366, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 2.198039817831768, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 3 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.19506112820895283, ""native_ci_low"": -0.037547933948871376, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.07875659713004073, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 7.752100282315789, ""ci_low"": 0.754262712502944, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 2.4180819230403143, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 4 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.20479638108200382, ""native_ci_low"": -0.02820145465898824, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.08829746321150779, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 6.814482201835549, ""ci_low"": 0.6514947131747222, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 2.107035625593241, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 5 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.19190500830741908, ""native_ci_low"": -0.04284859973009346, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0745282042886628, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 6.304552030850316, ""ci_low"": 0.5919418656156111, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 1.931819942699688, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 6 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.18412719170672392, ""native_ci_low"": -0.052434684889369435, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.06584625340867725, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 4.973918528119017, ""ci_low"": 0.452541616805871, ""contrast"": ""10 source concentration units"", ""estimate"": 1.5003016805215073, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 7 (bounded sensitivity)"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.16042079656972108, ""native_ci_low"": -0.07928755492295109, ""native_contrast"": ""1 source concentration unit"", ""native_estimate"": 0.040566620823385004, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""daily mean temperature"", ""daily mean relative humidity"", ""day of week"", ""linear calendar-day trend""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Daily city-level unweighted mean of eligible in-city station-day means, lags 0-7"", ""geography"": ""Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil"", ""model"": ""Separate negative-binomial log-link daily count regressions"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Article: SIH-SUS B34.2; sensitivity: SIVEP-Gripe hospital extract"", ""outcome"": ""Daily hospital admissions for COVID-19 (bounded sensitivity uses SIVEP-Gripe resident COVID/SRAG hospital admissions)"", ""period"": ""Article: 2020-04-01 to 2021-04-30; sensitivity: 2020-04-01 to 2020-09-09"", ""pollutant"": ""O3 and NO2"", ""population"": ""Residents admitted with COVID-19"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt Material and Methods and Table 2"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8404-20260925T141131Z | |
| 8404,38182658,codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8404-20260925T142459Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,1,"[""Bounded PM2.5 lag-10 sensitivity""]",[1.0700745807495362],"[{""ci_high"": 1.0725098109656321, ""ci_low"": 1.06764487994319, ""contrast"": ""10 ug/m3 increase in PM2.5 at lag 10 days"", ""estimate"": 1.0700745807495362, ""label"": ""Bounded PM2.5 lag-10 sensitivity"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.007000151953169767, ""native_ci_low"": 0.006545517582800075, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.006772834767984921, ""native_scale"": ""log odds coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""sunshine duration"", ""nation fixed effects""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio per 10 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Article: daily country average. Reanalysis: daily mean of valid hourly values at one official UK-AIR representative monitor per nation."", ""geography"": ""England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales"", ""model"": ""Article: binomial logistic GLMM/DLNM. Reanalysis: binomial-logit fixed-effect GLM with PM2.5, temperature and sunshine at lag 10 days."", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Public Health England / Office for National Statistics (article); independently recovered Tom White historical UK data compilation (reanalysis)"", ""outcome"": ""Instantaneous COVID-19 case-fatality rate: article target D'/C; reanalysis uses stated fixed-delay proxy."", ""period"": ""2020-03-26 through 2020-09-15"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the four UK constituent nations"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/estimand_ledger.json"", ""/study/article.md"", ""/study/supplements/41598_2023_50474_MOESM1_ESM.docx""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8404-20260925T142459Z | |
| 8404,38788590,codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8404-20260925T144033Z,completed_fit,bounded,1,"[""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo 2019 bounded slice""]",[0.9710111557808493],"[{""ci_high"": 1.0151827430665052, ""ci_low"": 0.9287615171656768, ""contrast"": ""10 ug/m3 increase in observed PM2.5 lag 0-2 mean"", ""estimate"": 0.9710111557808493, ""label"": ""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo 2019 bounded slice"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.001506863871611186, ""native_ci_low"": -0.007390328230831152, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase in PM2.5 lag 0-2 mean"", ""native_estimate"": -0.002941732179609983, ""native_scale"": ""conditional-logit coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""NASA POWER coordinate daily temperature (linear and quadratic terms)"", ""NASA POWER coordinate relative humidity""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio per 10 ug/m3"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Daily Sao Paulo city-coordinate PM2.5 estimate, transformed to observed three-day lag 0-2 mean; explicit proxy for article population-weighted municipality grid mean"", ""geography"": ""Sao Paulo municipality/city, Brazil (bounded from 5,570 municipalities)"", ""model"": ""Time-stratified case-crossover conditional logistic regression; 3 or 4 same-weekday controls in same calendar month"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM)"", ""outcome"": ""Daily all-cancer deaths (bounded slice; article also specified 25 site-specific outcomes)"", ""period"": ""2019-01-01 through 2019-12-31 (bounded from 2000-2019)"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Individual SIM all-cancer death records with municipality of occurrence code 355030"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-evidence.json""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8404-20260925T144033Z | |
| 8404,39377000,codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8404-20260925T150653Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,1,"[""All-stroke sensitivity: state-fixed-effect model""]",[0.9889294365],"[{""ci_high"": 1.0052318174, ""ci_low"": 0.9726270555, ""contrast"": ""Outcome ratio for 1 ug/m3 PM2.5 at fitted sample mean outcome (schema-transport presentation only)"", ""estimate"": 0.9889294365, ""label"": ""All-stroke sensitivity: state-fixed-effect model"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 1.3911641541, ""native_ci_low"": -7.2785909882, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": -2.943713417, ""native_scale"": ""additive deaths per 100,000"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""state fixed effects""], ""effect_scale"": ""Article-native additive deaths per 100,000 per 1 ug/m3; outcome-ratio presentation below is evaluated at the fitted sample mean solely for schema transport"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted within-county mean of qualifying EPA AQS PM2.5 monitor annual arithmetic means"", ""geography"": ""United States counties; monitor-supported subset"", ""model"": ""OLS of all-stroke age-65+ county rate on PM2.5 with state fixed effects; reduced adjustment sensitivity"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""CDC county heart disease and stroke mortality dataset (Socrata 7b9s-s8ck)"", ""outcome"": ""Article target: ischemic and hemorrhagic county stroke mortality among adults 65+; fitted sensitivity: CDC all-stroke county rate among adults 65+"", ""period"": ""Article: 2016-2020; fitted sensitivity: 2016-2019"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""United States residents aged 65 years and older"", ""specification_evidence"": [""../study/article.md: Methods and Statistical analysis"", ""../study/article.md: Results section establishes additive linear coefficients""]}",0,True,True,False,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/analysis/final-campaign/r8404/codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8404-20260925T150653Z | |
| 8406,33227571,codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8406-20260925T235316Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,2,"[""AMI admissions, high-pollution versus low-pollution cluster"", ""In-hospital mortality among AMI admissions, high-pollution versus low-pollution cluster""]","[0.6502463055, 1.2342857142]","[{""ci_high"": 1.482450546, ""ci_low"": 0.2852171082, ""contrast"": ""High-pollution cluster versus low-pollution reference cluster"", ""estimate"": 0.6502463055, ""label"": ""AMI admissions, high-pollution versus low-pollution cluster"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.3936964088, ""native_ci_low"": -1.2545045216, ""native_contrast"": ""Poisson GLM coefficient, high versus low cluster"", ""native_estimate"": -0.4304040564, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 3.1107145101, ""ci_low"": 0.4897463973, ""contrast"": ""High-pollution cluster versus low-pollution reference cluster"", ""estimate"": 1.2342857142, ""label"": ""In-hospital mortality among AMI admissions, high-pollution versus low-pollution cluster"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": 1.1348524458, ""native_ci_low"": -0.7138675785, ""native_contrast"": ""Binomial daily mortality coefficient, high versus low cluster"", ""native_estimate"": 0.2104924337, ""native_scale"": ""log odds ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""temperature variation"", ""rainfall"", ""relative humidity""], ""effect_scale"": ""High-pollution versus low-pollution cluster comparison; exact article statistic absent from supplied abstract"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Article assignment unspecified; sensitivity uses a fixed Pinheiros CETESB monitor"", ""geography"": ""39 municipalities in metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil"", ""model"": ""Article says hierarchical clustering; sensitivity uses Ward clustering with three clusters and GLM contrasts"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""DataSUS"", ""outcome"": ""Daily acute myocardial infarction admissions and in-hospital mortality"", ""period"": ""2012-01-01 through 2015-12-31"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 joint daily feature set"", ""population"": ""Acute myocardial infarction patients admitted 2012-2015"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification-evidence.md""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8406-20260925T235316Z | |
| 8406,33398753,codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8406-20260925T220702Z,completed_fit,reduced_coverage,3,"[""COVID-19 infections 20200317"", ""COVID-19 infections 20200407"", ""COVID-19 infections 20200427""]","[1.2007807143024714, 1.1503218860519138, 1.1672914936694847]","[{""ci_high"": 1.7800266003923135, ""ci_low"": 0.8100296498507201, ""contrast"": ""doubling annual 2018 PM10 >50 ug/m3 day count"", ""estimate"": 1.2007807143024714, ""label"": ""COVID-19 infections 20200317"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.8318988007238817, ""native_ci_low"": -0.3039533783595823, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log PM10 count"", ""native_estimate"": 0.26397271118214966, ""native_scale"": ""log-log OLS coefficient"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.4797795181622706, ""ci_low"": 0.8942145943291312, ""contrast"": ""doubling annual 2018 PM10 >50 ug/m3 day count"", ""estimate"": 1.1503218860519138, ""label"": ""COVID-19 infections 20200407"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.5653822354827989, ""native_ci_low"": -0.16130700282648697, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log PM10 count"", ""native_estimate"": 0.20203761632815598, ""native_scale"": ""log-log OLS coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.4821207762771427, ""ci_low"": 0.9193376498072579, ""contrast"": ""doubling annual 2018 PM10 >50 ug/m3 day count"", ""estimate"": 1.1672914936694847, ""label"": ""COVID-19 infections 20200427"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.5676630159544456, ""native_ci_low"": -0.12133327011193257, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log PM10 count"", ""native_estimate"": 0.22316487292125647, ""native_scale"": ""log-log OLS coefficient"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""2019 population density (log)""], ""effect_scale"": ""Outcome ratio per doubling annual PM10 exceedance-day count"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Nearest monitor within 100 km of provincial-capital reference coordinate; daily series"", ""geography"": ""55 Italian provincial-capital cities"", ""model"": ""OLS of log cumulative infections on log PM10 exceedance days and log 2019 population density"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Ministry of Health / public Protezione Civile provincial archive substitution"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 infections on 17 March, 7 April, and 27 April 2020"", ""period"": ""2018 exposure; 2020 outcomes"", ""pollutant"": ""PM10"", ""population"": ""Residents of sampled provincial-capital cities"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.md"", ""/run/contract/study-target.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8406-20260925T220702Z | |
| 8406,33484722,codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8406-20260925T222641Z,completed_fit,reduced_coverage,4,"[""Day-60 case rate"", ""Day-60 death rate"", ""Day-80 case rate"", ""Day-80 death rate""]","[1.111084, 1.18695, 1.064637, 1.077049]","[{""ci_high"": 1.250287, ""ci_low"": 0.98738, ""contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.111084, ""label"": ""Day-60 case rate"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.223373, ""native_ci_low"": -0.012701, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.105336, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome-rate slope"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.402389, ""ci_low"": 1.004608, ""contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.18695, ""label"": ""Day-60 death rate"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.338177, ""native_ci_low"": 0.004597, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.171387, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome-rate slope"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.171193, ""ci_low"": 0.967775, ""contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.064637, ""label"": ""Day-80 case rate"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.158023, ""native_ci_low"": -0.032756, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.062634, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome-rate slope"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.244025, ""ci_low"": 0.932485, ""contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.077049, ""label"": ""Day-80 death rate"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.218352, ""native_ci_low"": -0.069902, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 higher PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.074225, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome-rate slope"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""population age 65+ (%)"", ""population density (population / surface area)"", ""GDP per capita (current US dollars)"", ""physicians per 1,000 population"", ""hospital beds per 1,000 population""], ""effect_scale"": ""Exponentiated coefficient from a linear regression of natural-log rate; outcome-rate ratio"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Country-level population-weighted annual PM2.5 from World Bank indicator EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3"", ""geography"": ""36 OECD member countries listed in article Methods section 2.1"", ""model"": ""OLS of natural-log case/death rate per 100,000 on PM2.5 and the five article-specified covariates"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""WHO COVID-19 website in article; daily JHU CSSE historical national series used as the documented retrieval substitution"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 case rate and death rate per national population on days 60 and 80 after the first confirmed case"", ""period"": ""Long-term exposure: 2017; COVID outcomes: 2020 epidemic day 60/day 80"", ""pollutant"": ""Population-weighted annual PM2.5 concentration in 2017"", ""population"": ""National populations of the 36 article-listed OECD countries"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.md Methods sections 2.1-2.2"", ""/study/article.md Table 1"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8406-20260925T222641Z | |
| 8406,34004167,codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8406-20260925T234155Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,2,"[""NO2 STAP and daily cases, bounded model"", ""NO2 STAP and daily deaths, bounded model""]","[1.1559907083, 0.9962815155]","[{""ci_high"": 1.2459241027, ""ci_low"": 1.0725488935, ""contrast"": ""per 1 \u00b5g/m3"", ""estimate"": 1.1559907083, ""label"": ""NO2 STAP and daily cases, bounded model"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.219856507, ""native_ci_low"": 0.070058958, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 \u00b5g/m3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.1449577325, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.0082062964, ""ci_low"": 0.9844977775, ""contrast"": ""per 1 \u00b5g/m3"", ""estimate"": 0.9962815155, ""label"": ""NO2 STAP and daily deaths, bounded model"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.008172807, ""native_ci_low"": -0.015623638, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 \u00b5g/m3"", ""native_estimate"": -0.0037254153, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""None identifiable in bounded overlap; article lockdown is constant""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 1 \u00b5g/m3"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted mean of monitor daily means within each administrative polygon"", ""geography"": ""Lombardia and Veneto, Italy"", ""model"": ""Log-link count models: AR(1) Poisson GEE for deaths; robust Poisson GLM fallback for cases after recorded GEE failure"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Civil Protection COVID-19 regional archive"", ""outcome"": ""Daily reported COVID-19 cases and deaths"", ""period"": ""Article target 2020-02-21 to 2020-05-19; retained complete overlap 2020-05-05 to 2020-05-19"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2 STAP; PM2.5 target was attempted but not fit"", ""population"": ""Residents of the two regions"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.md \u00a7\u00a72.1\u20132.3"", ""/study/supplements/mmc1.docx Tables S1\u2013S4""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8406-20260925T234155Z | |
| 8406,34488764,codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8406-20260926T000608Z,completed_fit,source_substitution,4,"[""Continuous PM2.5"", ""PM2.5 quartile Q2 versus Q1"", ""PM2.5 quartile Q3 versus Q1"", ""PM2.5 quartile Q4 versus Q1""]","[1.3536898948, 1.5308731566, 3.0229027459, 4.0383955331]","[{""ci_high"": 1.5369019866, ""ci_low"": 1.1923182787, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 increase in long-term PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.3536898948, ""label"": ""Continuous PM2.5"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.4298346, ""native_ci_low"": 0.175833639, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 increase"", ""native_estimate"": 0.3028341193, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 2.2455407794, ""ci_low"": 1.0436562288, ""contrast"": ""Q2 versus Q1 derived from independent PM2.5 distribution"", ""estimate"": 1.5308731566, ""label"": ""PM2.5 quartile Q2 versus Q1"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.808832, ""native_ci_low"": 0.042845, ""native_contrast"": ""Q2 versus Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 0.4258382632, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 4.9234137078, ""ci_low"": 1.8560172989, ""contrast"": ""Q3 versus Q1 derived from independent PM2.5 distribution"", ""estimate"": 3.0229027459, ""label"": ""PM2.5 quartile Q3 versus Q1"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 1.59407, ""native_ci_low"": 0.61837, ""native_contrast"": ""Q3 versus Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 1.1062175439, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 8.05596871596, ""ci_low"": 2.0244168091, ""contrast"": ""Q4 versus Q1 derived from independent PM2.5 distribution"", ""estimate"": 4.0383955331, ""label"": ""PM2.5 quartile Q4 versus Q1"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 2.08642, ""native_ci_low"": 0.70528, ""native_contrast"": ""Q4 versus Q1"", ""native_estimate"": 1.3958474678, ""native_scale"": ""log rate ratio"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""WorldClim temperature climatology"", ""combined resuscitation and intensive-care beds per 100k"", ""medical density"", ""age 60+ share"", ""male share"", ""unemployment"", ""poverty"", ""urban share"", ""population density"", ""diabetes""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 1 microgram per cubic metre PM2.5"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted polygon zonal mean of 18 annual NASA PM2.5 rasters"", ""geography"": ""96 mainland French departments (NUTS 3)"", ""model"": ""NB2 count regression with log department population offset"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""French Ministry of Health / Sant\u00e9 publique France data.gouv hospital COVID dataset"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative COVID-19 deaths in hospitals through 2020-05-01"", ""period"": ""PM2.5 annual means 1999\u20132016; mortality through 2020-05-01"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Department residents"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/evidence/article.txt"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,False,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8406-20260926T000608Z | |
| 8406,36383802,codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8406-recovery-20260926T034500Z,completed_fit,source_substitution,2,"[""O3 lag 2"", ""NO2 lag 3""]","[1.0263742977173338, 1.5249606083355989]","[{""ci_high"": 1.058415200554866, ""ci_low"": 0.9953033539791288, ""contrast"": ""10 ug/m3 increase"", ""estimate"": 1.0263742977173338, ""label"": ""O3 lag 2"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.005677269578227789, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0004707710161001885, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0026032492810638, ""native_scale"": ""negative-binomial log rate coefficient per ug/m3"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.9171402560409747, ""ci_low"": 1.2130071598296124, ""contrast"": ""10 ug/m3 increase"", ""estimate"": 1.5249606083355989, ""label"": ""NO2 lag 3"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.06508346275330146, ""native_ci_low"": 0.019310253071928733, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 increase"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0421968579126151, ""native_scale"": ""negative-binomial log rate coefficient per ug/m3"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""daily mean temperature"", ""daily mean relative humidity"", ""day of week"", ""linear calendar day""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 10 ug/m3"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Daily mean of hourly values at municipal representative grid cell, America/Sao_Paulo local day"", ""geography"": ""Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil"", ""model"": ""Negative-binomial log-link regression"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Article: DATASUS SIH-SUS B34.2; reanalysis: official SIVEP-Gripe confirmed-COVID hospital notifications"", ""outcome"": ""Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions among Sao Jose dos Campos residents"", ""period"": ""2020-04-01 through 2021-04-30"", ""pollutant"": ""O3 and NO2 (separate single-pollutant lag models)"", ""population"": ""Residents admitted for COVID-19"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt lines 34-36, 73-103, 163-184"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/agent-study-contract.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8406-recovery-20260926T034500Z | |
| 8406,38182658,codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8406-20260926T062342Z,completed_fit,bounded,1,"[""Bounded PM2.5 lag-mean analogue""]",[1.7189892341],"[{""ci_high"": 1.7303694711, ""ci_low"": 1.7076838423, ""contrast"": ""PM2.5 19 versus 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 for the fitted 0\u201310-day lag mean; covariate values held at medians, England/Monday design row."", ""estimate"": 1.7189892341, ""label"": ""Bounded PM2.5 lag-mean analogue"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.5483346139, ""native_ci_low"": 0.5351383131, ""native_contrast"": ""19 versus 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.5417364635, ""native_scale"": ""log odds ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""sunshine duration"", ""weekday"", ""country""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Article: daily country averages. Bounded implementation: Open-Meteo gridded PM2.5 daily means at each national-capital coordinate, summarized over lags 0\u201310."", ""geography"": ""England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland"", ""model"": ""Article Model 6 target is binomial-logit GLMM DLNM. Fitted bounded analogue is binomial GLM with flexible cubic bases of 0\u201310-day mean PM2.5, temperature and sunshine, plus country and weekday fixed effects."", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Public historical UK nation indicators archive derived from the sources documented in its retained sources file."", ""outcome"": ""Instantaneous COVID-19 case fatality: deaths back-projected to confirmation day among daily confirmed cases."", ""period"": ""Article target 2020-03-26 through 2020-09-15; bounded fitted effective dates 2020-03-26 through 2020-06-22."", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases among residents of the four UK constituent countries"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt"", ""/study/supplements/41598_2023_50474_MOESM1_ESM.docx"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8406-20260926T062342Z | |
| 8406,38788590,codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8406-20260926T062401Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,1,"[""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo 2019 bounded sensitivity""]",[1.017754138136571],"[{""ci_high"": 1.0506463915937743, ""ci_low"": 0.9858916320293315, ""contrast"": ""per 10 micrograms per cubic metre PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.017754138136571, ""label"": ""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo 2019 bounded sensitivity"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.004940824470037623, ""native_ci_low"": -0.001421149598364593, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 microgram per cubic metre PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.001759837435836515, ""native_scale"": ""conditional logistic coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature cross-basis"", ""relative humidity"", ""public holiday""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio per 10 micrograms per cubic metre"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Population-weighted municipal mean of 0.25-degree daily PM2.5 grids; lag 0-2 three-day mean"", ""geography"": ""Brazilian municipalities (5570 in the article)"", ""model"": ""Time-stratified case-crossover conditional logistic regression; same weekday within calendar month controls"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM)"", ""outcome"": ""Daily all-cancer deaths (ICD-10 C00-C97)"", ""period"": ""2000-01-01 through 2019-12-31"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Individual Brazilian Mortality Information System cancer death records"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt"", ""ResearchGate full-text recovery, methods lines 424-790"", ""/output/recovery/pubmed-38788590.medline""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8406-20260926T062401Z | |
| 8406,39377000,codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8406-20260926T062408Z,completed_sensitivity,supported_sensitivity,2,"[""Ischemic stroke, unadjusted OLS"", ""Hemorrhagic stroke, unadjusted OLS""]","[1.0, 1.0]","[{""ci_high"": null, ""ci_low"": null, ""contrast"": ""No ratio conversion: native article-compatible additive slope below"", ""estimate"": 1.0, ""label"": ""Ischemic stroke, unadjusted OLS"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 4.0472242086, ""native_ci_low"": 0.6641957406, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 2.3557099746, ""native_scale"": ""deaths per 100,000"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": null, ""ci_low"": null, ""contrast"": ""No ratio conversion: native article-compatible additive slope below"", ""estimate"": 1.0, ""label"": ""Hemorrhagic stroke, unadjusted OLS"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 1.3251573614, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0131970278, ""native_contrast"": ""per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.6559801668, ""native_scale"": ""deaths per 100,000"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""Article specified: CAD, hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol, obesity, smoking, income, Gini, poverty, insurance, park access""], ""effect_scale"": ""Additive deaths per 100,000 per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""County-level annual PM2.5"", ""geography"": ""US counties and county equivalents"", ""model"": ""Ordinary linear regression"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""CDC WONDER and Interactive Atlas on Heart Disease and Stroke"", ""outcome"": ""County ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke mortality rate"", ""period"": ""Article: 2016-2020; recovered sensitivity: 2020-2022"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Adults aged 65 years and older"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification.json"", ""/study/article.md""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8406-20260926T062408Z | |
| 8407,33227571,codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8407-20260925T214137Z,completed_blocker,none,0,[],[],[],"{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""temperature variation"", ""rainfall"", ""relative humidity""], ""effect_scale"": ""Article comparison scale not specified in the supplied record"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Daily metropolitan pollutant-weather clusters"", ""geography"": ""39 municipalities in metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil, aggregated daily"", ""model"": ""Hierarchical cluster comparison; exact inferential model not identified in supplied article materials"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""DataSUS SIH-RD public mirror"", ""outcome"": ""Daily acute myocardial infarction admissions and in-hospital deaths"", ""period"": ""2012-10-01 through 2015-09-30"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2, PM2.5, and PM10"", ""population"": ""SUS acute myocardial infarction admissions"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification-evidence.md"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33227571-sao-paulo-ami-r8407-20260925T214137Z | |
| 8407,33398753,codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8407-20260925T220300Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,3,"[""cases_2020_03_17"", ""cases_2020_04_07"", ""cases_2020_04_27""]","[0.7267035116644707, 0.8410536744546437, 0.8333283142047269]","[{""ci_high"": 26587.95093234719, ""ci_low"": 1.9862305117427608e-05, ""contrast"": ""doubling of annual PM10 >50 ug/m3 days"", ""estimate"": 0.7267035116644707, ""label"": ""cases_2020_03_17"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 14.698484976088732, ""native_ci_low"": -15.619607410054964, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log annual exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": -0.46056121698311653, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 12474.072047882559, ""ci_low"": 5.670732705393762e-05, ""contrast"": ""doubling of annual PM10 >50 ug/m3 days"", ""estimate"": 0.8410536744546437, ""label"": ""cases_2020_04_07"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 13.606644876337478, ""native_ci_low"": -14.106105319138097, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log annual exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": -0.24973022140030907, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 17729.285837334945, ""ci_low"": 3.916886927238349e-05, ""contrast"": ""doubling of annual PM10 >50 ug/m3 days"", ""estimate"": 0.8333283142047269, ""label"": ""cases_2020_04_27"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 14.11384680300058, ""native_ci_low"": -14.639932993293183, ""native_contrast"": ""one-unit increase in log annual exceedance days"", ""native_estimate"": -0.26304309514630164, ""native_scale"": ""log outcome per log exposure"", ""primary"": false, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""2019 municipal population density proxy""], ""effect_scale"": ""outcome ratio per doubling of annual PM10 exceedance days"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""nearest public monitor within 100 km"", ""geography"": ""Italian provincial-capital cities"", ""model"": ""log-log OLS with log population density"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Civil Protection province-level historical feed"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative reported COVID-19 cases (three dates)"", ""period"": ""2018 exposure; March-April 2020 outcomes"", ""pollutant"": ""PM10"", ""population"": ""Article sample of 55 cities; bounded probe subset"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt Tables 6-7"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33398753-italy-cities-r8407-20260925T220300Z | |
| 8407,33484722,codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8407-20260925T220938Z,completed_fit,source_substitution,4,"[""day-60 case-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""day-60 death-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""day-80 case-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""day-80 death-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5""]","[1.1464274270821027, 1.1809024534141734, 1.0736874861887384, 1.0302730672642948]","[{""ci_high"": 1.350160300045027, ""ci_low"": 0.9734368915470697, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 higher 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.1464274270821027, ""label"": ""day-60 case-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.3002233261753045, ""native_ci_low"": -0.026922282622439564, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.13665052177643247, ""native_scale"": ""OLS coefficient on log rate"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.4903627152889276, ""ci_low"": 0.9356988001469596, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 higher 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.1809024534141734, ""label"": ""day-60 death-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.3990195234121605, ""native_ci_low"": -0.06646164900636117, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.16627893720289966, ""native_scale"": ""OLS coefficient on log rate"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2264788164830922, ""ci_low"": 0.9399304761772739, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 higher 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.0736874861887384, ""label"": ""day-80 case-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.20414731304918673, ""native_ci_low"": -0.0619493679669135, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.07109897254113662, ""native_scale"": ""OLS coefficient on log rate"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2579972864980573, ""ci_low"": 0.8437717668573186, ""contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 higher 2017 population-weighted PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 1.0302730672642948, ""label"": ""day-80 death-rate ratio per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.22952100127914768, ""native_ci_low"": -0.1698732393713319, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 0.029823880953907894, ""native_scale"": ""OLS coefficient on log rate"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""age 65+ percent"", ""population density"", ""GDP per capita"", ""physicians"", ""hospital beds"", ""PM2.5 percent above WHO guideline""], ""effect_scale"": ""Outcome ratio exp(beta) per 1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Direct ISO3 country assignment of World Bank population-weighted annual PM2.5"", ""geography"": ""36 OECD countries as of March 2020, excluding Colombia"", ""model"": ""OLS of log(rate) at each epidemic day, with intercept"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""WHO daily national COVID-19 data (article); JHU CSSE archive used after WHO route failure"", ""outcome"": ""National COVID-19 confirmed case and death rates at day 60 and day 80 after first confirmed case"", ""period"": ""2017 long-term PM2.5 and 2020 COVID-19 epidemics"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""National populations of those countries"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/specification-evidence.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-33484722-oecd-covid-r8407-20260925T220938Z | |
| 8407,34004167,codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8407-20260925T221606Z,completed_fit,bounded,4,"[""Cases, STAP NO2"", ""Cases, LTAP NO2"", ""Deaths, STAP NO2"", ""Deaths, LTAP NO2""]","[1.0064636709840817, 1.2706370933999962, 1.0073831565054678, 1.3891852498175954]","[{""ci_high"": 1.0088390749190959, ""ci_low"": 1.0040938601550395, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher region-day NO2"", ""estimate"": 1.0064636709840817, ""label"": ""Cases, STAP NO2"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.00880023797080175, ""native_ci_low"": 0.004085504117172845, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.0064428710439872975, ""native_scale"": ""log rate coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.2731083461767407, ""ci_low"": 1.2681706376150437, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher 2013-2020 regional NO2"", ""estimate"": 1.2706370933999962, ""label"": ""Cases, LTAP NO2"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.2414614268543592, ""native_ci_low"": 0.2375754192126132, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.23951842303348622, ""native_scale"": ""log rate coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.008309884569308, ""ci_low"": 1.0064572801886127, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher region-day NO2"", ""estimate"": 1.0073831565054678, ""label"": ""Deaths, STAP NO2"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.008275547147566455, ""native_ci_low"": 0.006436521695211506, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.007356034421388981, ""native_scale"": ""log rate coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}, {""ci_high"": 1.3902775657975428, ""ci_low"": 1.3880937920505902, ""contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher 2013-2020 regional NO2"", ""estimate"": 1.3891852498175954, ""label"": ""Deaths, LTAP NO2"", ""metric"": ""RR"", ""native_ci_high"": 0.329503414849813, ""native_ci_low"": 0.327931433307104, ""native_contrast"": ""1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""native_estimate"": 0.3287174240784585, ""native_scale"": ""log rate coefficient"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""lockdown indicator from 2020-02-22""], ""effect_scale"": ""Rate ratio per 1 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Unweighted mean of validated EEA station-day means within each public regional polygon; LTAP is the 2013-01-01 through 2020-05-19 mean."", ""geography"": ""Lombardia and Veneto, Italy"", ""model"": ""Poisson log-link GEE with AR(1) working correlation, clustered by region; STAP, LTAP, and lockdown."", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Italian Ministry of Health daily reports (article); public Italian Civil Protection regional series used as source substitution"", ""outcome"": ""Daily incident reported COVID-19 cases and deaths"", ""period"": ""2020-02-21 through 2020-05-19 (outcomes available from 2020-02-24)"", ""pollutant"": ""NO2"", ""population"": ""Residents of the two regions"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/evidence/article-specification.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-34004167-northern-italy-covid-r8407-20260925T221606Z | |
| 8407,34488764,codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8407-20260925T222845Z,completed_blocker,none,0,[],[],[],"{""covariates"": [""long-term temperature"", ""resuscitation beds"", ""intensive-care beds"", ""medical density"", ""age 60+"", ""male share"", ""unemployment"", ""poverty"", ""urban share"", ""population density"", ""diabetes prevalence""], ""effect_scale"": ""mortality rate ratio"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Department-polygon mean of annual PM2.5 values across 1999\u20132016"", ""geography"": ""96 mainland French department polygons"", ""model"": ""Negative-binomial death-count regression with log population offset"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""French Ministry of Health / data.gouv hospital COVID dataset"", ""outcome"": ""Cumulative in-hospital COVID-19 deaths through 2020-05-01"", ""period"": ""PM2.5 1999\u20132016; outcome through 2020-05-01"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Residents of the 96 mainland French departments"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/reanalysis/estimand-ledger.md""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-34488764-france-covid-r8407-20260925T222845Z | |
| 8407,36383802,codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8407-20260925T223848Z,missing_result,none,0,[],[],[],{},0,False,True,True,False,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-36383802-sao-jose-covid-r8407-20260925T223848Z | |
| 8407,38182658,codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8407-20260925T234200Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,1,"[""Bounded PM2.5 association""]",[0.7022175276],"[{""ci_high"": 0.7082695968, ""ci_low"": 0.6962171726, ""contrast"": ""Per 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher 11-day mean PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 0.7022175276, ""label"": ""Bounded PM2.5 association"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": -0.344930471, ""native_ci_low"": -0.362093638, ""native_contrast"": ""Per 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 higher 11-day mean PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": -0.3535120546, ""native_scale"": ""log odds ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature 11-day mean"", ""daylight duration 11-day mean"", ""relative humidity 11-day mean"", ""nation fixed effects"", ""weekday fixed effects""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio per 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3 PM2.5"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Article: daily nation monitor mean; fit: hourly modeled PM2.5 at nation centroid, daily mean, then 11-day mean"", ""geography"": ""England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, nation-day"", ""model"": ""Article: binomial mixed DLNM; fit: binomial logit GLM with robust covariance and an 11-day linear lag-average predictor"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""PHE/ONS in article; public GitHub preservation of UK dashboard indicators in fit"", ""outcome"": ""Daily instantaneous COVID-19 case-fatality risk (back-projected deaths / cases in article; fixed 8-day death-shift proxy in fitted sensitivity)"", ""period"": ""Article: 2020-03-26 to 2020-09-15; fit: 2020-03-26 to 2020-07-24"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the four UK nations"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/study/article.txt"", ""/study/supplements/41598_2023_50474_MOESM1_ESM.docx"", ""/output/aeris-workspace/.aeris/contracts/reanalysis-invariants.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-38182658-uk-covid-r8407-20260925T234200Z | |
| 8407,38788590,codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8407-20260925T235317Z,completed_fit,bounded,1,"[""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo May 2000 bounded slice""]",[0.7941872236440768],"[{""ci_high"": 0.9971982250575784, ""ci_low"": 0.6325054842161077, ""contrast"": ""10 micrograms per cubic metre increase in lag 0-2 PM2.5"", ""estimate"": 0.7941872236440768, ""label"": ""All-cancer mortality, Sao Paulo May 2000 bounded slice"", ""metric"": ""OR"", ""native_ci_high"": -0.00280570726053328, ""native_ci_low"": -0.45806638772064856, ""native_contrast"": ""10 micrograms per cubic metre increase in lag 0-2 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": -0.23043604749059093, ""native_scale"": ""log odds ratio"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""temperature"", ""relative humidity"", ""public holidays""], ""effect_scale"": ""Odds ratio per 10 \u00b5g/m\u00b3"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""Population-weighted municipal mean of daily 0.25\u00b0 grid values; three-day lag 0-2 mean"", ""geography"": ""Brazilian municipalities"", ""model"": ""Time-stratified case-crossover conditional logistic regression"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM)"", ""outcome"": ""Daily all-cancer and site-specific cancer deaths"", ""period"": ""2000-01-01 through 2019-12-31"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""Cancer deaths recorded across Brazilian municipalities"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article-specification.json""]}",0,False,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-38788590-brazil-cancer-r8407-20260925T235317Z | |
| 8407,39377000,codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8407-20260926T001108Z,completed_sensitivity,bounded,1,"[""Bounded adjusted sensitivity; model-implied relative outcome change at sample-mean outcome for +10 ug/m3""]",[1.5171],"[{""ci_high"": 1.5622, ""ci_low"": 1.472, ""contrast"": ""10 ug/m3; presentation-only rescaling at mean outcome, not article estimand"", ""estimate"": 1.5171, ""label"": ""Bounded adjusted sensitivity; model-implied relative outcome change at sample-mean outcome for +10 ug/m3"", ""metric"": ""outcome_ratio"", ""native_ci_high"": 4.2998191834, ""native_ci_low"": 3.6094473028, ""native_contrast"": ""1 ug/m3 PM2.5"", ""native_estimate"": 3.9546332431, ""native_scale"": ""additive deaths per 100,000"", ""primary"": true, ""scale"": ""ratio""}]","{""covariates"": [""diabetes"", ""obesity"", ""smoking"", ""lack of insurance (bounded sensitivity only)""], ""effect_scale"": ""Article-native additive deaths per 100,000 per 1 ug/m3; no native ratio was fitted"", ""exposure_assignment"": ""County daily EPA Downscaler predictions averaged over 2016-2020"", ""geography"": ""United States counties"", ""model"": ""OLS with HC3 uncertainty in bounded sensitivity"", ""named_outcome_source"": ""CDC Interactive Atlas of Heart Disease and Stroke"", ""outcome"": ""County ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke mortality rates among adults age 65+ (article target); bounded fit uses all-stroke mortality age 35+"", ""period"": ""Article 2016-2020; bounded outcome 2018-2020 and exposure 2016-2020"", ""pollutant"": ""PM2.5"", ""population"": ""US residents; article target age 65+, bounded outcome source age 35+"", ""specification_evidence"": [""/output/article_estimand_ledger.json""]}",0,True,True,True,True,/anonymous/workspace/Papers/aeris-paper/iclr-2027/experiments/clean-room/runs/scientific/codex-aeris-self-driving-39377000-us-stroke-r8407-20260926T001108Z | |