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import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Martingales.PredictableMeshApproximation
import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Martingales.SquareMaximal
namespace OAI
noncomputable section
open MeasureTheory Filter Finset
open scoped NNReal ENNReal Topology
namespace Problem367.MartingaleStrongMaximal
def runningMax (x : ℕ → ℝ) : ℕ → ℝ
| 0 => x 0
| n + 1 => max (runningMax x n) (x (n + 1))
@[simp] theorem runningMax_zero (x : ℕ → ℝ) : runningMax x 0 = x 0 := rfl
@[simp] theorem runningMax_succ (x : ℕ → ℝ) (n : ℕ) :
runningMax x (n + 1) = max (runningMax x n) (x (n + 1)) := rfl
theorem self_le_runningMax (x : ℕ → ℝ) (n : ℕ) : x n ≤ runningMax x n := by
cases n with
| zero => rfl
| succ n => exact le_max_right _ _
theorem runningMax_mono (x : ℕ → ℝ) : Monotone (runningMax x) := by
apply monotone_nat_of_le_succ
intro n
exact le_max_left _ _
theorem le_runningMax (x : ℕ → ℝ) {i n : ℕ} (h : i ≤ n) : x i ≤ runningMax x n :=
(self_le_runningMax x i).trans (runningMax_mono x h)
theorem runningMax_sq_le_twice (x : ℕ → ℝ) (n : ℕ) :
runningMax x n ^ 2 ≤ 2 * runningMax x n * x n -
2 * ∑ k ∈ range n, runningMax x k * (x (k + 1) - x k) := by
induction n with
| zero =>
simp only [sum_range_zero, mul_zero, sub_zero, runningMax_zero]
nlinarith [sq_nonneg (x 0)]
| succ n ih =>
rw [sum_range_succ, runningMax_succ]
rcases le_total (x (n + 1)) (runningMax x n) with h | h
· rw [max_eq_left h]
nlinarith
· rw [max_eq_right h]
nlinarith [sq_nonneg (x (n + 1) - runningMax x n)]
theorem runningMax_sq_le_four (x : ℕ → ℝ) (n : ℕ) :
runningMax x n ^ 2 ≤ 4 * x n ^ 2 -
4 * ∑ k ∈ range n, runningMax x k * (x (k + 1) - x k) := by
have h := runningMax_sq_le_twice x n
nlinarith [sq_nonneg (runningMax x n - 2 * x n)]
variable {Ω : Type*} [mΩ : MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : Measure Ω}
theorem runningMax_memLp {X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ} (h2 : ∀ n, MemLp (X n) 2 μ) (n : ℕ) :
MemLp (fun ω => runningMax (fun k => X k ω) n) 2 μ := by
induction n with
| zero => exact h2 0
| succ n ih => exact ih.sup (h2 (n + 1))
theorem runningMax_stronglyAdapted {F : Filtration ℕ mΩ} {X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ}
(hX : StronglyAdapted F X) :
StronglyAdapted F (fun n ω => runningMax (fun k => X k ω) n) := by
intro n
induction n with
| zero => exact hX 0
| succ n ih =>
let : MeasurableSpace Ω := F (n + 1)
have hi : StronglyMeasurable[F (n + 1)]
(fun ω => runningMax (fun k => X k ω) n) := ih.mono (F.mono (Nat.le_succ n))
exact hi.sup (hX (n + 1))
theorem integral_mul_sub_nonneg [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℕ mΩ} {X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ} (hX : Submartingale X F μ)
(n : ℕ) {H : Ω → ℝ} (hH : StronglyMeasurable[F n] H)
(hHnonneg : ∀ ω, 0 ≤ H ω)
(hprod : Integrable (fun ω => H ω * (X (n + 1) ω - X n ω)) μ) :
0 ≤ ∫ ω, H ω * (X (n + 1) ω - X n ω) ∂μ := by
have hpull := condExp_mul_of_stronglyMeasurable_left hH hprod
((hX.integrable (n + 1)).sub (hX.integrable n))
rw [← integral_condExp (F.le n)]
apply integral_nonneg_of_ae
filter_upwards [hpull, hX.condExp_sub_nonneg (Nat.le_succ n)] with ω hp hn
change 0 ≤ μ[H * (fun ω => X (n + 1) ω - X n ω) | F n] ω
rw [hp]
exact mul_nonneg (hHnonneg ω) hn
theorem finite_submartingale_maximal_sq [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℕ mΩ} {X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ}
(hX : Submartingale X F μ) (h2 : ∀ n, MemLp (X n) 2 μ)
(hnonneg : ∀ n ω, 0 ≤ X n ω) (n : ℕ) :
(∫ ω, runningMax (fun k => X k ω) n ^ 2 ∂μ) ≤
4 * ∫ ω, X n ω ^ 2 ∂μ := by
have hmax2 := runningMax_memLp h2
have hmaxA := runningMax_stronglyAdapted hX.stronglyAdapted
have hprod (k : ℕ) : Integrable (fun ω =>
runningMax (fun j => X j ω) k * (X (k + 1) ω - X k ω)) μ :=
(hmax2 k).integrable_mul ((h2 (k + 1)).sub (h2 k))
have hsum : Integrable (fun ω => ∑ k ∈ range n,
runningMax (fun j => X j ω) k * (X (k + 1) ω - X k ω)) μ :=
integrable_finsetSum _ (fun k _ => hprod k)
have hbound := integral_mono (hmax2 n).integrable_sq
(((h2 n).integrable_sq.const_mul 4).sub (hsum.const_mul 4))
(fun ω => runningMax_sq_le_four (fun k => X k ω) n)
simp only [Pi.sub_apply] at hbound
rw [integral_sub ((h2 n).integrable_sq.const_mul 4) (hsum.const_mul 4),
integral_const_mul, integral_const_mul,
integral_finsetSum _ (fun k _ => hprod k)] at hbound
have hsum_nonneg : 0 ≤ ∑ k ∈ range n, ∫ ω,
runningMax (fun j => X j ω) k * (X (k + 1) ω - X k ω) ∂μ := by
apply sum_nonneg
intro k hk
exact integral_mul_sub_nonneg hX k (hmaxA k)
(fun ω => (hnonneg k ω).trans (self_le_runningMax (fun j => X j ω) k)) (hprod k)
linarith
theorem submartingale_abs {F : Filtration ℕ mΩ} {M : ℕ → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) : Submartingale (fun n ω => |M n ω|) F μ := by
refine ⟨fun n => ?_, ?_, fun n => (hM.integrable n).abs⟩
· simpa only [Real.norm_eq_abs] using (hM.stronglyMeasurable n).norm
· intro i j hij
have hj := norm_condExp_le (m := F i) (μ := μ) (M j)
filter_upwards [hj, hM.condExp_ae_eq hij] with ω hω heq
simpa only [Real.norm_eq_abs, heq] using hω
theorem finite_martingale_maximal_sq [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℕ mΩ} {M : ℕ → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ n, MemLp (M n) 2 μ) (n : ℕ) :
(∫ ω, runningMax (fun k => |M k ω|) n ^ 2 ∂μ) ≤
4 * ∫ ω, M n ω ^ 2 ∂μ := by
simpa only [sq_abs] using finite_submartingale_maximal_sq (submartingale_abs hM)
(fun n => (h2 n).norm) (fun n ω => abs_nonneg (M n ω)) n
theorem runningMax_le {x : ℕ → ℝ} {n : ℕ} {a : ℝ}
(h : ∀ k ≤ n, x k ≤ a) : runningMax x n ≤ a := by
induction n with
| zero => exact h 0 le_rfl
| succ n ih =>
exact max_le (ih (fun k hk => h k (hk.trans (Nat.le_succ n)))) (h (n + 1) le_rfl)
theorem sampled_martingale_maximal_sq [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{ι : Type*} [Preorder ι] {F : Filtration ι mΩ} {M : ι → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(q : ℕ → ι) (hq : Monotone q) (n : ℕ) {T : ι} (hT : q n ≤ T) :
(∫ ω, runningMax (fun k => |M (q k) ω|) n ^ 2 ∂μ) ≤
4 * ∫ ω, M T ω ^ 2 ∂μ := by
let G : Filtration ℕ mΩ := ⟨fun k => F (q k),
fun _ _ h => F.mono (hq h), fun k => F.le (q k)⟩
have hMq : Martingale (fun k => M (q k)) G μ :=
⟨fun k => hM.stronglyMeasurable (q k), fun i j hij => hM.condExp_ae_eq (hq hij)⟩
exact (finite_martingale_maximal_sq hMq (fun k => h2 (q k)) n).trans
(mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left (MartingaleSquareMaximal.integral_sq_le hM h2 hT)
(by norm_num))
def dyadicPoint (n k : ℕ) : ℝ≥0 := (k : ℝ≥0) / (2 ^ n : ℕ)
def dyadicCount (n : ℕ) (T : ℝ≥0) : ℕ := ⌊(2 ^ n : ℕ) * T⌋₊
theorem dyadicPoint_mono (n : ℕ) : Monotone (dyadicPoint n) := by
intro i j hij
dsimp [dyadicPoint]
gcongr
theorem dyadicPoint_double (n k : ℕ) :
dyadicPoint (n + 1) (2 * k) = dyadicPoint n k := by
simp only [dyadicPoint, pow_succ, Nat.cast_mul, Nat.cast_ofNat]
field_simp
theorem dyadicPoint_le_iff {n k : ℕ} {T : ℝ≥0} :
dyadicPoint n k ≤ T ↔ k ≤ dyadicCount n T := by
have hp : (0 : ℝ≥0) < (2 ^ n : ℕ) := by positivity
rw [dyadicPoint, div_le_iff₀ hp, dyadicCount, Nat.le_floor_iff (by positivity)]
rw [mul_comm]
theorem dyadicPoint_eq_mesh (n k : ℕ) :
dyadicPoint n k = PredictableMesh.point (2 ^ n - 1) k := by
have hn : 1 ≤ 2 ^ n := Nat.one_le_pow n 2 (by norm_num)
simp only [dyadicPoint, PredictableMesh.point, Nat.sub_add_cancel hn]
def gridMax (M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (T : ℝ≥0) (n : ℕ) (ω : Ω) : ℝ :=
runningMax (fun k => |M (dyadicPoint n k) ω|) (dyadicCount n T)
omit mΩ in
theorem gridMax_nonneg (M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (T : ℝ≥0) (n : ℕ) (ω : Ω) :
0 ≤ gridMax M T n ω :=
(abs_nonneg _).trans (self_le_runningMax
(fun k => |M (dyadicPoint n k) ω|) (dyadicCount n T))
omit mΩ in
theorem gridMax_mono (M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (T : ℝ≥0) (ω : Ω) :
Monotone (fun n => gridMax M T n ω) := by
apply monotone_nat_of_le_succ
intro n
apply runningMax_le
intro k hk
have ht : dyadicPoint (n + 1) (2 * k) ≤ T := by
rw [dyadicPoint_double]
exact dyadicPoint_le_iff.mpr hk
have hb := le_runningMax (fun j => |M (dyadicPoint (n + 1) j) ω|)
(dyadicPoint_le_iff.mp ht)
simpa only [dyadicPoint_double, gridMax] using hb
theorem gridMax_memLp {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(T : ℝ≥0) (n : ℕ) : MemLp (gridMax M T n) 2 μ :=
runningMax_memLp (fun k => (h2 (dyadicPoint n k)).norm) _
theorem gridMax_integral_sq_le [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ) (T : ℝ≥0) (n : ℕ) :
(∫ ω, gridMax M T n ω ^ 2 ∂μ) ≤ 4 * ∫ ω, M T ω ^ 2 ∂μ :=
sampled_martingale_maximal_sq hM h2 (dyadicPoint n) (dyadicPoint_mono n) _
(dyadicPoint_le_iff.mpr le_rfl)
def supremumSq (M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (T : ℝ≥0) (ω : Ω) : ℝ≥0∞ :=
⨆ t : Set.Iic T, ENNReal.ofReal (M t ω ^ 2)
omit mΩ in
theorem supremumSq_eq_iSup_gridMax {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {ω : Ω}
(hc : Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
supremumSq M T ω = ⨆ n : ℕ, ENNReal.ofReal (gridMax M T n ω ^ 2) := by
apply le_antisymm
· apply iSup_le
intro t
have hp : Tendsto (fun n : ℕ => 2 ^ n - 1) atTop atTop :=
(tendsto_sub_atTop_nat 1).comp
(tendsto_pow_atTop_atTop_of_one_lt (by norm_num : (1 : ℕ) < 2))
have hlim : Tendsto (fun n : ℕ => ENNReal.ofReal
(M (PredictableMesh.left (2 ^ n - 1) t) ω ^ 2)) atTop
(𝓝 (ENNReal.ofReal (M t ω ^ 2))) :=
ENNReal.tendsto_ofReal (((hc.tendsto t).comp
((PredictableMesh.tendsto_left t).comp hp)).pow 2)
apply le_of_tendsto hlim
apply Filter.Eventually.of_forall
intro n
apply le_iSup_of_le n
apply ENNReal.ofReal_le_ofReal
rw [← sq_abs (M (PredictableMesh.left (2 ^ n - 1) t) ω)]
apply (sq_le_sq₀ (abs_nonneg _) (gridMax_nonneg M T n ω)).mpr
let k := ⌈((2 ^ n - 1 + 1 : ℕ) : ℝ≥0) * t⌉₊ - 1
have heq : dyadicPoint n k = PredictableMesh.left (2 ^ n - 1) t :=
dyadicPoint_eq_mesh n k
have ht : dyadicPoint n k ≤ T := by
rw [heq]
exact (PredictableMesh.left_le _ t).trans t.property
have hb := le_runningMax (fun j => |M (dyadicPoint n j) ω|)
(dyadicPoint_le_iff.mp ht)
simpa only [heq, gridMax] using hb
· apply iSup_le
intro n
have hmax : ∃ k ≤ dyadicCount n T,
gridMax M T n ω = |M (dyadicPoint n k) ω| := by
dsimp only [gridMax]
generalize dyadicCount n T = N
induction N with
| zero => exact ⟨0, le_rfl, rfl⟩
| succ N ih =>
obtain ⟨k, hk, heq⟩ := ih
rcases le_total |M (dyadicPoint n (N + 1)) ω|
(runningMax (fun k => |M (dyadicPoint n k) ω|) N) with h | h
· exact ⟨k, hk.trans (Nat.le_succ N), (max_eq_left h).trans heq⟩
· exact ⟨N + 1, le_rfl, max_eq_right h⟩
obtain ⟨k, hk, heq⟩ := hmax
rw [heq, sq_abs]
exact le_iSup_of_le ⟨dyadicPoint n k, dyadicPoint_le_iff.mpr hk⟩ le_rfl
theorem continuous_martingale_maximal_sq [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
(∫⁻ ω, supremumSq M T ω ∂μ) ≤
ENNReal.ofReal (4 * ∫ ω, M T ω ^ 2 ∂μ) := by
have heq : supremumSq M T =ᵐ[μ]
(fun ω => ⨆ n : ℕ, ENNReal.ofReal (gridMax M T n ω ^ 2)) := by
filter_upwards [hc] with ω hω
exact supremumSq_eq_iSup_gridMax hω T
rw [lintegral_congr_ae heq, lintegral_iSup']
· apply iSup_le
intro n
rw [← ofReal_integral_eq_lintegral_ofReal (gridMax_memLp h2 T n).integrable_sq
(Filter.Eventually.of_forall (fun ω => sq_nonneg _))]
exact ENNReal.ofReal_le_ofReal (gridMax_integral_sq_le hM h2 T n)
· intro n
exact ((gridMax_memLp h2 T n).aestronglyMeasurable.pow 2).aemeasurable.ennreal_ofReal
· exact Filter.Eventually.of_forall fun ω n m hnm =>
ENNReal.ofReal_le_ofReal ((sq_le_sq₀ (gridMax_nonneg M T n ω)
(gridMax_nonneg M T m ω)).mpr (gridMax_mono M T ω hnm))
theorem supremumSq_aemeasurable {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
AEMeasurable (supremumSq M T) μ := by
have hg : AEMeasurable
(fun ω => ⨆ n : ℕ, ENNReal.ofReal (gridMax M T n ω ^ 2)) μ :=
AEMeasurable.iSup (fun n =>
((gridMax_memLp h2 T n).aestronglyMeasurable.pow 2).aemeasurable.ennreal_ofReal)
apply hg.congr
filter_upwards [hc] with ω hω
exact (supremumSq_eq_iSup_gridMax hω T).symm
theorem ae_supremumSq_lt_top [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, supremumSq M T ω < ∞ :=
ae_lt_top' (supremumSq_aemeasurable h2 hc T)
(ne_top_of_le_ne_top ENNReal.ofReal_ne_top (continuous_martingale_maximal_sq hM h2 hc T))
def maximalSquare (M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (T : ℝ≥0) (ω : Ω) : ℝ :=
(supremumSq M T ω).toReal
theorem integrable_maximalSquare [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
Integrable (maximalSquare M T) μ :=
integrable_toReal_of_lintegral_ne_top (supremumSq_aemeasurable h2 hc T)
(ne_top_of_le_ne_top ENNReal.ofReal_ne_top (continuous_martingale_maximal_sq hM h2 hc T))
theorem integral_maximalSquare_le [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
(∫ ω, maximalSquare M T ω ∂μ) ≤ 4 * ∫ ω, M T ω ^ 2 ∂μ := by
change (∫ ω, (supremumSq M T ω).toReal ∂μ) ≤ _
rw [integral_toReal (supremumSq_aemeasurable h2 hc T) (ae_supremumSq_lt_top hM h2 hc T)]
have h := ENNReal.toReal_mono ENNReal.ofReal_ne_top
(continuous_martingale_maximal_sq hM h2 hc T)
simpa only [ENNReal.toReal_ofReal (mul_nonneg (by norm_num : (0 : ℝ) ≤ 4)
(integral_nonneg (fun ω => sq_nonneg (M T ω))))] using h
theorem tendsto_integral_maximalSquare_sub [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℕ → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {L : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : ∀ n, Martingale (M n) F μ) (hL : Martingale L F μ)
(h2 : ∀ n t, MemLp (M n t) 2 μ) (hL2 : ∀ t, MemLp (L t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M n t ω))
(hLc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => L t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0)
(hlim : Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω, (M n T ω - L T ω) ^ 2 ∂μ) atTop (𝓝 0)) :
Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω, maximalSquare (M n - L) T ω ∂μ) atTop (𝓝 0) := by
have hbound (n : ℕ) := integral_maximalSquare_le ((hM n).sub hL)
(fun t => (h2 n t).sub (hL2 t)) (show ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ,
Continuous (fun t => (M n - L) t ω) from by
filter_upwards [hc n, hLc] with ω hm hl
exact hm.sub hl) T
apply squeeze_zero
(fun n => integral_nonneg (fun ω => ENNReal.toReal_nonneg))
(fun n => by simpa only [Pi.sub_apply, maximalSquare] using hbound n)
simpa only [mul_zero] using hlim.const_mul 4
theorem ae_all_sq_le_maximalSquare [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ}
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (h2 : ∀ t, MemLp (M t) 2 μ)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) (T : ℝ≥0) :
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, M t ω ^ 2 ≤ maximalSquare M T ω := by
filter_upwards [ae_supremumSq_lt_top hM h2 hc T] with ω hω
intro t ht
have hle : ENNReal.ofReal (M t ω ^ 2) ≤ supremumSq M T ω :=
le_iSup_of_le ⟨t, ht⟩ le_rfl
simpa only [ENNReal.toReal_ofReal (sq_nonneg _), maximalSquare] using
ENNReal.toReal_mono hω.ne hle
end Problem367.MartingaleStrongMaximal
end
end OAI