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Publish validated T07-T10 release on netted T08 graphs
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{
"task": "T08 - Dynamic Transaction Graph (netted flows)",
"input_files": {
"raw_transfers": "data/interim/usdt_whale_transfers_interim.parquet",
"netted_transfers": "data/interim/usdt_transfers_netted.parquet",
"labels": "data/processed/t07/t07_complete_wallet_labels.parquet",
"config": "config/config.yaml"
},
"output_files": {
"dynamic_edges_daily.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/dynamic_edges_daily.parquet",
"dynamic_edges_weekly.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/dynamic_edges_weekly.parquet",
"graph_metrics_daily.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/graph_metrics_daily.parquet",
"graph_metrics_weekly.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/graph_metrics_weekly.parquet",
"t08_validation.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_validation.parquet",
"t08_topology_comparison.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_topology_comparison.parquet",
"t08_monthly_retention.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_monthly_retention.parquet",
"t08_top10_days.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_top10_days.parquet",
"t08_top20_nodes.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_top20_nodes.parquet",
"t08_direction_samples.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_direction_samples.parquet",
"t08_multistep_cycle_audit.parquet": "data/processed/graphs/t08_multistep_cycle_audit.parquet"
},
"time_range": {
"start_date": "2025-01-01",
"end_date": "2026-10-17",
"total_days_expected": 655,
"total_days_snapshots": 655,
"total_weeks_snapshots": 94,
"partial_weeks_count": 2,
"partial_weeks_list": [
"2025-W01",
"2026-W42"
],
"timezone": "UTC",
"week_rule": "ISO Monday start"
},
"netting_results": {
"raw_transfer_events": 2113146,
"netted_transfer_rows": 1878332,
"raw_volume_usdt": 9685105185709.982,
"netted_volume_usdt": 5841719933212.044,
"volume_retention_ratio": 0.6031653576495264,
"self_loops_filtered": 298,
"raw_zero_address_rows": 1,
"netted_zero_address_rows": 1,
"gross_volume_surviving_pairs_usdt": 5970184484707.96,
"raw_sha256": "36f32182af65c7d4972d33d6a6ef9b6162fa34e1079c20ff8bad6d2f18784e8c",
"netted_sha256": "0617e78cbb151a5bacbe186eca8abb4cec8b1849b32939f89a2e2bfbfaa971fd"
},
"daily_graph_summary": {
"total_snapshots": 655,
"total_weighted_edges": 998663,
"max_daily_volume_usdt": 33943665167.71034,
"avg_daily_reciprocity": 0.1238885822959272,
"avg_raw_reciprocity": 0.1432460340367723
},
"weekly_graph_summary": {
"total_snapshots": 94,
"total_weighted_edges": 633921,
"eligible_regression_weeks": 92
},
"validation_check_status": {
"all_days_pass": true,
"mass_conservation_days_passed": 655,
"total_days_checked": 655
},
"b7_residual_analysis": {
"monthly_retention": {
"2025-01": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 206722442525.55258,
"netted_volume_usdt": 205012528995.10403,
"retention_ratio": 0.9917284572
},
"2025-02": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 228624996819.01532,
"netted_volume_usdt": 225712522996.61475,
"retention_ratio": 0.9872609126
},
"2025-03": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 211249458370.8358,
"netted_volume_usdt": 205085504574.32434,
"retention_ratio": 0.9708214457
},
"2025-04": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 237307373121.1816,
"netted_volume_usdt": 227088321702.2239,
"retention_ratio": 0.9569374888
},
"2025-05": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 226150176372.94382,
"netted_volume_usdt": 220141924703.1455,
"retention_ratio": 0.9734324697
},
"2025-06": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 207650970951.0206,
"netted_volume_usdt": 201872887296.7604,
"retention_ratio": 0.9721740591
},
"2025-07": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 346707569419.1339,
"netted_volume_usdt": 329417364859.6235,
"retention_ratio": 0.950130294
},
"2025-08": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 435401652408.3855,
"netted_volume_usdt": 386462878984.1358,
"retention_ratio": 0.8876008551
},
"2025-09": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 480339258776.7671,
"netted_volume_usdt": 419921186660.7817,
"retention_ratio": 0.8742179178
},
"2025-10": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 786588729293.0933,
"netted_volume_usdt": 456685636982.9812,
"retention_ratio": 0.5805901101
},
"2025-11": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 884466206908.384,
"netted_volume_usdt": 352185928113.3985,
"retention_ratio": 0.3981903722
},
"2025-12": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 459328698708.0759,
"netted_volume_usdt": 286514680128.9559,
"retention_ratio": 0.6237682969
},
"2026-01": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 467405617859.9982,
"netted_volume_usdt": 298457114402.4817,
"retention_ratio": 0.6385398527
},
"2026-02": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 555659562388.2968,
"netted_volume_usdt": 286168116374.6622,
"retention_ratio": 0.515006194
},
"2026-03": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 909905818261.5496,
"netted_volume_usdt": 257107145303.67328,
"retention_ratio": 0.2825645689
},
"2026-04": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 529618651655.6739,
"netted_volume_usdt": 289014693663.5728,
"retention_ratio": 0.5457033901
},
"2026-05": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 463321528021.97845,
"netted_volume_usdt": 249613852895.77628,
"retention_ratio": 0.5387486611
},
"2026-06": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 622467598978.6771,
"netted_volume_usdt": 237755522661.4847,
"retention_ratio": 0.3819564634
},
"2026-07": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 369363088772.4569,
"netted_volume_usdt": 199799824660.1458,
"retention_ratio": 0.5409306743
},
"2026-08": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 307159419710.92316,
"netted_volume_usdt": 181359632042.27637,
"retention_ratio": 0.5904413813
},
"2026-09": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 308179077976.9591,
"netted_volume_usdt": 197727744079.5088,
"retention_ratio": 0.6416001546
},
"2026-10": {
"raw_volume_usdt": 441487288409.0809,
"netted_volume_usdt": 128614921130.41238,
"retention_ratio": 0.2913219123
}
},
"top10_days": [
{
"date": "2025-10-11",
"volume_usdt": 33943665167.71034,
"n_txs": 6504,
"top_transaction": "0xd00193ea06995ce1cd7abea1a352b94035094aba47de724de82ee73097d4b277",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 911121260.775,
"top_transaction_share": 0.02684215909723633,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.08135892912548116,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 2.68% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 8.14% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2026-02-06",
"volume_usdt": 31320451563.10728,
"n_txs": 5280,
"top_transaction": "0x5164c9fad3ec63a1351036c359078b542705f4c73884c5d927396a599e020067",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1100000000.0,
"top_transaction_share": 0.035120821862469655,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.07000573770507405,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 3.51% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 7.00% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-08-22",
"volume_usdt": 30952553535.843155,
"n_txs": 5307,
"top_transaction": "0x986dcb30177da59aee104a01ace76a8b9a4461719c86460d7a63a9f01353faea",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1886029142.195,
"top_transaction_share": 0.06093290946128151,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.1159430166538088,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 6.09% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 11.59% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-09-25",
"volume_usdt": 28521407522.986446,
"n_txs": 8104,
"top_transaction": "0x1024b143ce91aed92ef27b8c74b80579f8a59bbbed9f834e2c4a6fd00a939ce6",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1000000000.0,
"top_transaction_share": 0.0350613832502503,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.07481819719818365,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 3.51% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 7.48% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-09-26",
"volume_usdt": 26636025560.962357,
"n_txs": 6186,
"top_transaction": "0x0fdd0519b076fd27d42b6e3632c496775d87ad7023383f7ea4c5de60d9644d83",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1057773516.774,
"top_transaction_share": 0.03971213777194554,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.08857148278901011,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 3.97% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 8.86% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-07-17",
"volume_usdt": 24856384003.767746,
"n_txs": 3512,
"top_transaction": "0xe7f86229d4220370795d90e840ba2ae9430656d1c5643fc8a6a3629e37e08943",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 3241834858.304,
"top_transaction_share": 0.13042262534295418,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.1659828191318664,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 13.04% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 16.60% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-08-14",
"volume_usdt": 24092354567.227142,
"n_txs": 4725,
"top_transaction": "0x4a1336a0d2e17a8fd65175678231c6c053a0dfeacce9b0533f68739e0f058cb7",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1452644076.534,
"top_transaction_share": 0.060294815622132396,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.12472356033384496,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 6.03% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 12.47% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2026-02-05",
"volume_usdt": 23824026417.36835,
"n_txs": 5837,
"top_transaction": "0x2ec77aad623470cabba07bd5cf498ebcee674dadaec75cd952247d671890e7e1",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 400580391.0,
"top_transaction_share": 0.016814134772280397,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.07002746243933723,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 1.68% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 7.00% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2025-09-16",
"volume_usdt": 22953695430.704037,
"n_txs": 3808,
"top_transaction": "0x9f49b90cd3d4c2c726bc488d405b06f388b35d5f1ba7f0b7ec5b1307f1270a96",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 1700326640.248,
"top_transaction_share": 0.07407637891603093,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.11933856614485307,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 7.41% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 11.93% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
},
{
"date": "2026-04-14",
"volume_usdt": 22647789728.244263,
"n_txs": 4021,
"top_transaction": "0xd77b35877e00c643bd1858d0f1de90143c5105ae7d70c6e2fcead8d45a58fa3b",
"top_transaction_volume_usdt": 617445095.256,
"top_transaction_share": 0.027262929524905413,
"top_node": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"top_node_incident_share": 0.060869646238882184,
"top_node_type": "CEX",
"explanation": "Observed concentration: top transaction contributes 2.73% of edge volume; top node 0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60 (CEX) accounts for 6.09% of incident node volume. These are measured drivers, not a verified economic cause."
}
],
"top10_nodes_volume_share": 0.24988458859539822,
"total_node_volume_usdt": 11683439866424.086,
"top20_nodes": [
{
"address": "0x28c6c06298d514db089934071355e5743bf21d60",
"volume_usdt": 857739843810.7598,
"share": 0.0734150091,
"entity_name": "Binance 14",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x23878914efe38d27c4d67ab83ed1b93a74d4086a",
"volume_usdt": 363012773424.6727,
"share": 0.0310707101,
"entity_name": "Aave Ethereum USDT",
"entity_type": "DeFi",
"is_contract": true,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x559432e18b281731c054cd703d4b49872be4ed53",
"volume_usdt": 350882864661.0323,
"share": 0.0300324963,
"entity_name": "OKX (OKEx) (proof-of-reserves)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x3b98b9e9cb75c1cb1729aab8f09ced2936505e4f",
"volume_usdt": 255464019515.67096,
"share": 0.0218654799,
"entity_name": "OKX (OKEx) (proof-of-reserves)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x5754284f345afc66a98fbb0a0afe71e0f007b949",
"volume_usdt": 247526729095.2499,
"share": 0.0211861174,
"entity_name": "Tether: Treasury",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x77134cbc06cb00b66f4c7e623d5fdbf6777635ec",
"volume_usdt": 206694481822.44257,
"share": 0.0176912351,
"entity_name": "Bitfinex: Hot Wallet",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0xa69babef1ca67a37ffaf7a485dfff3382056e78c",
"volume_usdt": 173862380830.0879,
"share": 0.0148810952,
"entity_name": "MEV Bot: 0xA69...78C",
"entity_type": "Other",
"is_contract": true,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x56eddb7aa87536c09ccc2793473599fd21a8b17f",
"volume_usdt": 157563424175.53036,
"share": 0.0134860474,
"entity_name": "Binance (hot wallet)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x18709e89bd403f470088abdacebe86cc60dda12e",
"volume_usdt": 156738477249.0549,
"share": 0.0134154392,
"entity_name": "HTX (Huobi) (proof-of-reserves)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x21a31ee1afc51d94c2efccaa2092ad1028285549",
"volume_usdt": 150026569815.95544,
"share": 0.0128409588,
"entity_name": "Binance (hot wallet)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0xdfd5293d8e347dfe59e90efd55b2956a1343963d",
"volume_usdt": 144486878819.1474,
"share": 0.0123668098,
"entity_name": "Binance (hot wallet)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x9696f59e4d72e237be84ffd425dcad154bf96976",
"volume_usdt": 142046407474.462,
"share": 0.0121579269,
"entity_name": "Binance (hot wallet)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0xaa8ba7d4611437141192e7ceced531bc0a133efb",
"volume_usdt": 138573801530.05945,
"share": 0.0118607023,
"entity_name": "Unknown",
"entity_type": "Unknown",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": true
},
{
"address": "0x1f2f10d1c40777ae1da742455c65828ff36df387",
"volume_usdt": 128400132934.45825,
"share": 0.0109899254,
"entity_name": "jaredfromsubway: MEV Bot 2",
"entity_type": "Other",
"is_contract": true,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x000000000004444c5dc75cb358380d2e3de08a90",
"volume_usdt": 115086893958.02333,
"share": 0.0098504289,
"entity_name": "Uniswap V4: Pool Manager",
"entity_type": "DEX",
"is_contract": true,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0xeae7380dd4cef6fbd1144f49e4d1e6964258a4f4",
"volume_usdt": 114975257712.99243,
"share": 0.0098408738,
"entity_name": "Unknown",
"entity_type": "Unknown",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": true
},
{
"address": "0xed0c6079229e2d407672a117c22b62064f4a4312",
"volume_usdt": 112684751920.48929,
"share": 0.0096448266,
"entity_name": "Unknown",
"entity_type": "Unknown",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": true
},
{
"address": "0xa9d1e08c7793af67e9d92fe308d5697fb81d3e43",
"volume_usdt": 111139070836.94704,
"share": 0.0095125299,
"entity_name": "Coinbase 10",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": true,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0xa03400e098f4421b34a3a44a1b4e571419517687",
"volume_usdt": 106503104169.22525,
"share": 0.0091157318,
"entity_name": "HTX (Huobi) (proof-of-reserves)",
"entity_type": "CEX",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": false
},
{
"address": "0x14681e4e26f1b5b5774ae3b7f694ff08bbbeb65c",
"volume_usdt": 97713930873.42085,
"share": 0.0083634556,
"entity_name": "Unknown",
"entity_type": "Unknown",
"is_contract": false,
"contract_status_source": "bigquery-public-data.crypto_ethereum.contracts",
"unattributed_entity": true
}
],
"concentration_review_threshold": 0.5,
"multistep_cycles": {
"candidate_transactions": 43336,
"transactions_with_cycles": 1237,
"cycle_edge_volume_removed_usdt": 6801728949.235242,
"balance_max_abs_diff": 0.0,
"balance_preserved": true,
"policy": "Diagnostic only; deterministic cycle decomposition is not proof of economic intent.",
"audit_file": "t08_multistep_cycle_audit.parquet"
},
"decision_required": false,
"status": "PASS",
"note": "Node volume is incoming + outgoing; denominator is twice edge volume. Contract is not entity attribution."
},
"checks": [
{
"check": "B.1",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Daily + full-period volume conserved. Edge tx-count versus global unique tx-count comparison omitted per user instruction."
},
{
"check": "B.2",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "All weekly edge keys and values checked; max positive diff=4.76837158203125e-07"
},
{
"check": "B.3",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "655 daily snapshots, including empty windows"
},
{
"check": "B.4",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Raw UTC day mismatches=0; windows recomputed from timestamp"
},
{
"check": "B.5",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Raw duplicate keys=0; invalid/nonlowercase addresses=0; raw self-loops=298; raw zero-address rows=1; label coverage=True; contract status complete=True"
},
{
"check": "B.6",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "5 deterministic random raw transactions checked against netted directions and daily edge membership"
},
{
"check": "B.7",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Top10 node share=24.988459%; measured explanations + full cycle audit exported; team decision needed=False"
},
{
"check": "B.8",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Density, reciprocity, SCC, WCC compared on all daily/weekly windows; numerical decrease is measured, not assumed"
},
{
"check": "B.9",
"status": "PASS",
"detail": "Two raw-to-graph executions: 11 artifact hashes match=True; independent review exit=0"
}
],
"ready_for_t09_t12": true,
"limitations": [
"Pairwise netting cannot prove independent economic flows.",
"Raw input already excludes transfers below 500,000 USDT, so omitted counterflows cannot be recovered.",
"gross_value/event_count on surviving edges include both directions of surviving pairs only; canceled and threshold-dropped pairs are excluded.",
"Graph describes whale-transfer subnetwork; degrees and centrality are truncated.",
"Contract flag is creation recorded before study end; no inferred economic identity."
],
"reproducibility": {
"all_match": true,
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