dataset: publish leakage-safe DGW repair

Atomic verified export from PascalAI2024/fplbench. Source revision: 3a903fab2ef972800fe30ff38d340f5ba960a92b. Parent: c39a42fa76255863f184ad43e7e38ecf62c43711.

README.md

@@ -1,8 +1,10 @@
 ---
 language:
   - en
-pretty_name: fplbench player-gameweek panel
+pretty_name: "fplbench — Leakage-Safe Fantasy Premier League Panel"
 license: other
+source_datasets:
+  - extended
 task_categories:
   - tabular-regression
   - tabular-classification
@@ -11,123 +13,185 @@ tags:
   - fantasy-premier-league
   - sports
   - time-series
+  - tabular
+  - datasets
+  - pandas
+  - polars
+  - sports-analytics
 size_categories:
   - 100K<n<1M
+configs:
+  - config_name: default
+    data_files:
+      - split: train
+        path: train.parquet
+      - split: validation
+        path: validation.parquet
 ---
 
-# fplbench — leakage-safe Fantasy Premier League panel
+<p align="center">
+  <a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/x0me/fplbench-board">
+    <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/main/docs/img/social.png" alt="Dated preview of the fplbench Fantasy Premier League benchmark board" width="960">
+  </a>
+</p>
 
-One row per player per Premier League gameweek. Built so you can train a model
-without accidentally using the same gameweek's result as a feature.
+<p align="center"><sub>Dated board preview. Open the board for current provisional values.</sub></p>
 
-## Live scoreboard (2026/27)
+# fplbench
 
-Updated weekly by the [fplbench post-GW workflow](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/blob/main/.github/workflows/fplbench.yml) from official FPL actuals. No invented numbers.
+**Leakage-aware Fantasy Premier League player-fixture data, reproducible
+LightGBM forecasts, and a public post-gameweek scoring record.**
 
-### Model accuracy — published `e_points_final` MAE vs FPL `ep_next`
+[Load the dataset](#load-it-in-one-line) ·
+[Open the live board](https://huggingface.co/spaces/x0me/fplbench-board) ·
+[Inspect frozen forecasts](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/tree/main/outputs/predictions) ·
+[Read the results](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/blob/main/RESULTS.md) ·
+[Inspect the code](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench) ·
+[View the official team](https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/4770634/history)
 
-No finished gameweek scored yet — the first row lands after GW1.
+## Load it in one line
 
-### Team — The Leakage-Safe XI (entry 4770634)
+```bash
+pip install -U datasets
+```
 
-| GW | pts | GW avg | vs avg | captain | overall rank | total pts |
-|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| 1 (live) | 51 | 36 | +15 | Haaland | 793,389 | 51 |
+```python
+from datasets import load_dataset
 
-- Code + weekly self-scoring: https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench
-- The team, live in the official FPL game: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/4770634/history
+ds = load_dataset("x0me/fplbench")
+train = ds["train"]
+validation = ds["validation"]
+```
 
-_Last refreshed: 2026-08-24 19:01 UTC_
+## Why this dataset exists
 
-## Load with `datasets`
+Fantasy-football models are unusually easy to evaluate badly. A same-gameweek
+statistic can leak the result, a lineup can be revised after the deadline, and
+a single holdout number can quietly become a marketing claim.
 
-Path-based load from a clone of this repo (adjust the root if needed):
+fplbench publishes a stricter record:
 
-```python
-from datasets import load_dataset
+- **deadline-safe features** — form statistics are shifted within player and
+  season before training;
+- **frozen live forecasts** — the committed pre-deadline file is the artifact
+  scored later;
+- **minutes + points + DefCon** — separate heads model whether a player plays,
+  expected points, and the current Defensive Contribution rule;
+- **public accountability** — the model's team, weekly score, code, and
+  limitations remain linked.
 
-ds = load_dataset(
-    "parquet",
-    data_files={
-        "train": "data/processed/hf/train.parquet",
-        "validation": "data/processed/hf/validation.parquet",
-    },
-)
-# ds["train"], ds["validation"]
-```
+<!-- LIVE_SCOREBOARD:START -->
+## Live record — 2026/27
 
-From this directory:
+Generated by the [fplbench public workflow](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/blob/main/.github/workflows/publish-public-surfaces.yml) from the frozen forecast and official FPL actuals. Lower MAE is better.
 
-```python
-from datasets import load_dataset
+### Frozen model score — `e_points_final` vs FPL `ep_next`
 
-ds = load_dataset(
-    "parquet",
-    data_files={"train": "train.parquet", "validation": "validation.parquet"},
-)
-```
+No finished gameweek has been scored yet. The workflow publishes the first row only after FPL marks it finished and data-checked.
+
+### Live team — The Leakage-Safe XI
 
-Feature names used by the bundled LightGBM heads are listed in `features.txt`
-(same set as `data/processed/feature_columns.txt`).
+Current captain: **Haaland** · official entry **4770634**
 
-## Train / validation / live seasons
+| GW | points | average | vs average | overall rank |
+| ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| 1 (live) | 51 | 36 | +15 | 793,389 |
 
-| split | seasons | in this export? | intended use |
-|-------|---------|-----------------|--------------|
-| train | 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 | yes → `train.parquet` | fit minutes + points heads |
-| validation | 2025-26 | yes → `validation.parquet` | held-out season; first full DefCon year |
-| live | 2026-27 | **no** | scored weekly from the official FPL API |
+[Open the visual board](https://huggingface.co/spaces/x0me/fplbench-board) · [inspect the committed forecast](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/tree/main/outputs/predictions) · [view the official team](https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/4770634/history)
 
-Live season rows are never written here. Use the live predictor / API ingest instead.
+_Last refreshed: 2026-08-24 21:16 UTC_
+<!-- LIVE_SCOREBOARD:END -->
 
-## Leakage rule
+The repository contains two Parquet splits:
 
-**Do not use unshifted `xP` / `xp_scraped` as a feature.**
+| Split | Rows | Seasons | Intended use |
+| --- | ---: | --- | --- |
+| `train` | 109,282 | 2021-22 through 2024-25 | Fit minutes, points, and supporting heads |
+| `validation` | 29,747 | 2025-26 | Held-out season and first full DefCon season |
 
-- Every performance statistic used as a **feature** is shifted by one gameweek
-  inside `(season, player_code)`.
-- Columns ending `_l1`, `_r3`, `_r5` (plus a small set of static priors / context
-  columns) are the only form features.
-- `xp_scraped` is the vaastav `xP` column, copied from FPL `ep_this` **after**
-  the gameweek. Treat it as a contaminated baseline label/comparator only —
-  never as a model input.
+The export contains **139,029 rows and 165 columns**. Live 2026-27 data is not
+a third split; it is fetched and scored by the public weekly workflow.
 
-See [vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League](https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League).
+## Row and target contract
 
-## Targets
+Each row represents one player-fixture observation within an FPL gameweek.
+Double gameweeks therefore contain two rows for a player. Important targets
+include:
 
 - `minutes`
 - `total_points`
-- `defcon_hit` — 1 if the official 2025/26–2026/27 threshold is met
-  (DEF: CBIT ≥ 10; MID/FWD: CBIT + recoveries ≥ 12; GK: 0)
+- `defcon_hit` — whether the official positional threshold was met
+
+Model features use lagged or rolling forms such as `_l1`, `_r3`, and `_r5`,
+plus a small set of static priors and fixture context. The exact bundled model
+feature list is published in `features.txt`.
+
+## Leakage contract
+
+**Never use unshifted `xP` / `xp_scraped` as a model feature.**
+
+The vaastav `xP` column reflects FPL's `ep_this` after the gameweek. It is kept
+only as a contaminated comparator. Every performance feature used for fitting
+is shifted inside `(season, player_code)`. Both fixtures in a double gameweek
+receive the same lag values that were known before the first fixture; fixture
+two cannot observe fixture one's result. `manifest.json` records the fixture
+key, schema, row counts, and file hashes.
+
+The live score grades the committed `e_points_final` forecast:
+
+```text
+pred_points_decomposed = pred_points * clip(pred_minutes / 90, 0, 1)
+e_points_final         = pred_points_decomposed + 2 * pred_defcon
+```
+
+## Reproducible benchmark evidence
+
+The corrected 2025-26 common-mask comparison contains 29,417 rows. These are
+first-party historical holdout results, not independent validation:
+
+| Measure | MAE | Boundary |
+| --- | ---: | --- |
+| Published base-points score (`pred_points_decomposed`) | **0.8764** | Held-out season |
+| Rolling last-five baseline | 1.0534 | Same finite-row mask |
+| Scraped post-match `xP` comparator | 1.0683 | Comparator only; never a feature |
 
-## Caveats
+DefCon holdout interpretation is restricted to gameweeks after the classifier
+training window. The full evidence, masks, charts, and current caveats are in
+the [GitHub repository](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench).
 
-### In-sample `pred_defcon` (GW ≤ 28)
+## Known limitations
 
-The DefCon classifier is fit on 2025-26 **GW ≤ 28**. When you look at
-validation predictions (`outputs/predictions/val_2025-26.csv`), `pred_defcon`
-on those early gameweeks is **in-sample** — the model saw those rows during
-training. **Holdout DefCon metrics must use GW > 28 only.**
+- GW1 is a cold start with no current-season form.
+- The DefCon classifier currently has one historical rules season.
+- Historical double-gameweek lags are protected; live double-gameweek
+  prediction still fails closed with `NotImplementedError`.
+- TabFM appears only as a research comparison under its non-commercial
+  license. The public operating path uses LightGBM.
+- Public live results are first-party experimental evidence, not independent
+  validation or betting advice.
 
-### Double gameweeks (DGW)
+GW1 provenance is explicit: the current file is byte-identical to the
+[original pre-deadline artifact](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/commit/4b970a812deb997d32e48f9e48d9520b6a5ab901).
+Git history also preserves a post-deadline overwrite and the
+[explicit restoration](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench/commit/2981de109ce7b57f8ccc75ed1c011eb16886fc3a).
 
-The live predictor raises `NotImplementedError` when a team has two or more
-unfinished fixtures in the same event (double gameweek). DGW is not supported
-yet; single-fixture events only.
+## Sources and use
 
-## Sources
+- Historical panel: [vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League](https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League)
+- Live fixtures, prices, availability, expected points, and actuals: official
+  FPL API
+- Scoring rules and underlying player data remain owned by the Premier League
+  and its data providers.
 
-- Historical rows: [vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League](https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League) (cite if you use this)
-- Labels follow official FPL scoring. Underlying player data is owned by the Premier League / its data providers.
-- This export is for research and personal modelling. It is not an official Premier League product.
+This export is for research and personal modelling. It is not an official
+Premier League product.
 
-## Recommended citation
+## Citation
 
-Vaastav Anand, FPL Historical Dataset, https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League
+Please cite the upstream historical source when using the panel:
 
-## Links
+> Vaastav Anand, *FPL Historical Dataset*,
+> https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League
 
-- Code + weekly self-scoring: https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench
-- GW1 pitch board: https://huggingface.co/spaces/x0me/fplbench-board
-- The model's team in the official FPL game (live from GW1): The Leakage-Safe XI on https://fantasy.premierleague.com 
+For the benchmark implementation and live record, link
+[`PascalAI2024/fplbench`](https://github.com/PascalAI2024/fplbench).

features.txt

@@ -1,94 +1,100 @@
-assists_l1
-assists_r3
-assists_r5
-bonus_l1
-bonus_r3
-bonus_r5
-bps_l1
-bps_r3
-bps_r5
-clean_sheets_l1
-clean_sheets_r3
-clean_sheets_r5
-clearances_blocks_interceptions_l1
-clearances_blocks_interceptions_r3
-clearances_blocks_interceptions_r5
-creativity_l1
-creativity_r3
-creativity_r5
-defcon_count_l1
-defcon_count_r3
-defcon_count_r5
-defcon_hit_l1
-defcon_hit_r3
-defcon_hit_r5
-defensive_contribution_l1
-defensive_contribution_r3
-defensive_contribution_r5
-expected_assists_l1
-expected_assists_r3
-expected_assists_r5
-expected_goals_conceded_l1
-expected_goals_conceded_r3
-expected_goals_conceded_r5
-expected_goals_l1
-expected_goals_r3
-expected_goals_r5
-fdr
-goals_conceded_l1
-goals_conceded_r3
-goals_conceded_r5
-goals_scored_l1
-goals_scored_r3
-goals_scored_r5
-gw_in_season
-ict_index_l1
-ict_index_r3
-ict_index_r5
-influence_l1
-influence_r3
-influence_r5
-is_new_to_fpl
-minutes_l1
-minutes_r3
-minutes_r5
-prior_defcon_hits
-prior_defcon_rate
-prior_games
-prior_minutes
-prior_minutes_pg
-prior_points
-prior_ppg
-prior_starts
-prior_xa
-prior_xg
-prior_xg90
-recoveries_l1
-recoveries_r3
-recoveries_r5
-red_cards_l1
-red_cards_r3
-red_cards_r5
-saves_l1
-saves_r3
-saves_r5
-selected_l1
-selected_r3
-selected_r5
-starts_l1
-starts_r3
-starts_r5
-tackles_l1
-tackles_r3
-tackles_r5
-threat_l1
-threat_r3
-threat_r5
-total_points_l1
-total_points_r3
-total_points_r5
-value
-was_home
-yellow_cards_l1
-yellow_cards_r3
-yellow_cards_r5
+assists_l1
+assists_r3
+assists_r5
+bonus_l1
+bonus_r3
+bonus_r5
+bps_l1
+bps_r3
+bps_r5
+clean_sheets_l1
+clean_sheets_r3
+clean_sheets_r5
+clearances_blocks_interceptions_l1
+clearances_blocks_interceptions_r3
+clearances_blocks_interceptions_r5
+corners_and_indirect_freekicks_order
+creativity_l1
+creativity_r3
+creativity_r5
+defcon_count_l1
+defcon_count_r3
+defcon_count_r5
+defcon_hit_l1
+defcon_hit_r3
+defcon_hit_r5
+defensive_contribution_l1
+defensive_contribution_r3
+defensive_contribution_r5
+direct_freekicks_order
+expected_assists_l1
+expected_assists_r3
+expected_assists_r5
+expected_goals_conceded_l1
+expected_goals_conceded_r3
+expected_goals_conceded_r5
+expected_goals_l1
+expected_goals_r3
+expected_goals_r5
+fdr
+goals_conceded_l1
+goals_conceded_r3
+goals_conceded_r5
+goals_scored_l1
+goals_scored_r3
+goals_scored_r5
+gw_in_season
+ict_index_l1
+ict_index_r3
+ict_index_r5
+influence_l1
+influence_r3
+influence_r5
+is_new_to_fpl
+minutes_l1
+minutes_r3
+minutes_r5
+opp_xgc_r5
+opp_xgc_r5_away
+opp_xgc_r5_home
+penalties_order
+prior_defcon_hits
+prior_defcon_rate
+prior_games
+prior_minutes
+prior_minutes_pg
+prior_points
+prior_ppg
+prior_starts
+prior_xa
+prior_xg
+prior_xg90
+recoveries_l1
+recoveries_r3
+recoveries_r5
+red_cards_l1
+red_cards_r3
+red_cards_r5
+saves_l1
+saves_r3
+saves_r5
+selected_l1
+selected_r3
+selected_r5
+starts_l1
+starts_r3
+starts_r5
+tackles_l1
+tackles_r3
+tackles_r5
+threat_l1
+threat_r3
+threat_r5
+total_points_l1
+total_points_r3
+total_points_r5
+value
+was_home
+yellow_cards_l1
+yellow_cards_r3
+yellow_cards_r5

manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
+{
+  "column_count": 165,
+  "columns": [
+    "name",
+    "position",
+    "team",
+    "xP",
+    "assists",
+    "bonus",
+    "bps",
+    "clean_sheets",
+    "creativity",
+    "element",
+    "fixture",
+    "goals_conceded",
+    "goals_scored",
+    "ict_index",
+    "influence",
+    "kickoff_time",
+    "minutes",
+    "opponent_team",
+    "own_goals",
+    "penalties_missed",
+    "penalties_saved",
+    "red_cards",
+    "round",
+    "saves",
+    "selected",
+    "team_a_score",
+    "team_h_score",
+    "threat",
+    "total_points",
+    "transfers_balance",
+    "transfers_in",
+    "transfers_out",
+    "value",
+    "was_home",
+    "yellow_cards",
+    "GW",
+    "season",
+    "code",
+    "web_name",
+    "player_code",
+    "expected_assists",
+    "expected_goal_involvements",
+    "expected_goals",
+    "expected_goals_conceded",
+    "starts",
+    "mng_clean_sheets",
+    "mng_draw",
+    "mng_goals_scored",
+    "mng_loss",
+    "mng_underdog_draw",
+    "mng_underdog_win",
+    "mng_win",
+    "modified",
+    "clearances_blocks_interceptions",
+    "defensive_contribution",
+    "recoveries",
+    "tackles",
+    "team_h_difficulty",
+    "team_a_difficulty",
+    "team_h",
+    "team_a",
+    "fdr",
+    "defcon_count",
+    "defcon_hit",
+    "played",
+    "started",
+    "xp_scraped",
+    "xp_scraped_leak_risk",
+    "prior_games",
+    "prior_minutes",
+    "prior_points",
+    "prior_xg",
+    "prior_xa",
+    "prior_defcon_hits",
+    "prior_starts",
+    "prior_ppg",
+    "prior_minutes_pg",
+    "prior_xg90",
+    "prior_defcon_rate",
+    "is_new_to_fpl",
+    "penalties_order",
+    "corners_and_indirect_freekicks_order",
+    "direct_freekicks_order",
+    "minutes_l1",
+    "minutes_r3",
+    "minutes_r5",
+    "total_points_l1",
+    "total_points_r3",
+    "total_points_r5",
+    "goals_scored_l1",
+    "goals_scored_r3",
+    "goals_scored_r5",
+    "assists_l1",
+    "assists_r3",
+    "assists_r5",
+    "clean_sheets_l1",
+    "clean_sheets_r3",
+    "clean_sheets_r5",
+    "goals_conceded_l1",
+    "goals_conceded_r3",
+    "goals_conceded_r5",
+    "saves_l1",
+    "saves_r3",
+    "saves_r5",
+    "bonus_l1",
+    "bonus_r3",
+    "bonus_r5",
+    "bps_l1",
+    "bps_r3",
+    "bps_r5",
+    "starts_l1",
+    "starts_r3",
+    "starts_r5",
+    "expected_goals_l1",
+    "expected_goals_r3",
+    "expected_goals_r5",
+    "expected_assists_l1",
+    "expected_assists_r3",
+    "expected_assists_r5",
+    "expected_goals_conceded_l1",
+    "expected_goals_conceded_r3",
+    "expected_goals_conceded_r5",
+    "ict_index_l1",
+    "ict_index_r3",
+    "ict_index_r5",
+    "influence_l1",
+    "influence_r3",
+    "influence_r5",
+    "creativity_l1",
+    "creativity_r3",
+    "creativity_r5",
+    "threat_l1",
+    "threat_r3",
+    "threat_r5",
+    "clearances_blocks_interceptions_l1",
+    "clearances_blocks_interceptions_r3",
+    "clearances_blocks_interceptions_r5",
+    "recoveries_l1",
+    "recoveries_r3",
+    "recoveries_r5",
+    "tackles_l1",
+    "tackles_r3",
+    "tackles_r5",
+    "defensive_contribution_l1",
+    "defensive_contribution_r3",
+    "defensive_contribution_r5",
+    "yellow_cards_l1",
+    "yellow_cards_r3",
+    "yellow_cards_r5",
+    "red_cards_l1",
+    "red_cards_r3",
+    "red_cards_r5",
+    "selected_l1",
+    "selected_r3",
+    "selected_r5",
+    "defcon_count_l1",
+    "defcon_count_r3",
+    "defcon_count_r5",
+    "defcon_hit_l1",
+    "defcon_hit_r3",
+    "defcon_hit_r5",
+    "gw_in_season",
+    "opp_xgc_r5",
+    "opp_xgc_r5_home",
+    "opp_xgc_r5_away"
+  ],
+  "feature_count": 100,
+  "features_sha256": "5c38688ea0db24f33d563c8d6e6dfbcb5de15e5aa020d24b3b5c7a32620d7fc1",
+  "format_version": 1,
+  "historical_source_revision": "c2add969e11ec19002a091f8aa60164c9a255854",
+  "lag_contract": "All fixtures in one player-gameweek receive the same form lags, computed before that gameweek's first fixture.",
+  "row_grain": "player-fixture observation within an FPL gameweek",
+  "splits": {
+    "train": {
+      "file": "train.parquet",
+      "rows": 109282,
+      "seasons": [
+        "2021-22",
+        "2022-23",
+        "2023-24",
+        "2024-25"
+      ],
+      "sha256": "d6fc032933839690207995036d72574ffdb009058f6665d349f9ae3904f0f9c2"
+    },
+    "validation": {
+      "file": "validation.parquet",
+      "rows": 29747,
+      "seasons": [
+        "2025-26"
+      ],
+      "sha256": "349ee6256ac766c379489f8901ffce454dab411115575860aab917289bc0209e"
+    }
+  }
+}

train.parquet

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
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-oid sha256:0c421509516d70804a8e8116183a078249837f789da546a0b43011794be6ebb0
-size 7770069
+oid sha256:d6fc032933839690207995036d72574ffdb009058f6665d349f9ae3904f0f9c2
+size 7843891

validation.parquet

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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