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README.md

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 ---
+pretty_name: "Pokemon TCG Pull Rates (Sourced, With CI)"
 license: cc-by-4.0
+language:
+- en
+tags:
+- pokemon
+- trading-card-game
+- gaming
+- probability
 ---
+
+# PullSim pull rates — sourced, with sample sizes and confidence intervals
+
+The data behind [PullSim](https://pullsim.com/), a free Pokemon pack-opening simulator.
+Every rate here comes from a published TCGplayer Authentication Center pack study and is
+reproduced without adjustment. No rarity is inferred, no figure is averaged across sets,
+and no number is invented to fill a gap.
+
+## Why this repo exists
+
+Most pack-opening simulators hard-code one set of percentages and reuse it across every set,
+with the rarest tier often just written as 2% or 6% and no source. Those numbers cannot be
+checked. These can: each tier carries the pack count it was observed in, the published
+confidence interval, the number of cards in that tier, the source article, and the date the
+figure was updated.
+
+## Sets
+
+| Set | Published sample | Released | Rarest published tier |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Ascended Heroes | 2,000 packs | 2026-02-20 | Mega Hyper Rare 0.19% ±0.18% (~1 in 526) |
+| Prismatic Evolutions | 1,200 packs | 2025-01-17 | Hyper Rare 0.56% ±0.41% (~1 in 179) |
+| Phantasmal Flames | 5,000 packs | 2025-11-14 | Mega Hyper Rare 0.08% ±0.08% (~1 in 1,250) |
+| Delta Reign | not published | 2026-11-06 | pending |
+
+## Rates are per pack, not per card
+
+Each published figure answers "how many of this rarity appeared per opened pack". PullSim
+draws the tier at that absolute per-pack rate, then picks one card uniformly inside the tier.
+For a tier rate `r` and a pool of `c` cards, the estimate for one named card is `r / c`.
+Slot rates are therefore never normalised to sum to 100%.
+
+## Delta Reign has no English rate yet
+
+Delta Reign releases 2026-11-06. Five tiers are listed, every rate is `null` until a source
+publishes counted English packs. `null` means not established for simulation — it is never
+zero, and Japanese rates are never translated into English ones to fill the gap.
+
+## Known source contradictions, kept rather than smoothed over
+
+1. Ascended Heroes reports Ultra Rare as 4.81% in its main table and 20.77% in a detailed
+   section. We use the main-table value; the detailed figure duplicates the Phantasmal
+   Flames Double Rare number.
+2. Prismatic Evolutions reports Double Rare as 16.51% ±2.05% in the main table and
+   16.94% ±0.79% in the detailed section. The main-table value is used; the alternate
+   figure is kept as `alternateRatePct`.
+3. The same article gives a Specific Double Rare figure of 0.94%, while 16.51% over 25
+   cards is about 0.66%. The two cannot be reconciled, so the single-card estimate is
+   calculated from the adopted tier rate and pool size instead.
+
+## Not modelled
+
+- God Packs / Demigod Packs — described in the sources, but no confirmed independent rate
+  exists. Stored as `null`, not as zero.
+- Poke Ball Foil / Master Ball Foil — sourced tier rates, but they are patterns applied
+  across a large pool rather than standalone rarity categories, so the per-card estimate
+  is conservative.
+
+Method, including arithmetic you can recheck by hand:
+[How we calculate pull rates](https://pullsim.com/how-we-calculate/)
+
+## Data
+
+`data/<set-slug>.json`, one file per set. Fields:
+
+- `samplePacks` — packs counted in the source study
+- `tiers[].ratePct` — absolute per-pack rate
+- `tiers[].ci95Pct` — published confidence interval, in percentage points
+- `tiers[].cardsInTier` — verified pool size, used only for the single-card estimate
+- `tiers[].alternateRatePct` — a figure the source also reports, kept for auditability
+- `null` anywhere means the source did not establish that value
+
+## Citing this dataset
+
+These pull rates were compiled from the pack-opening samples published by the TCGplayer
+Authentication Center. Each set lists its counted sample size — Ascended Heroes 2,000 packs,
+Prismatic Evolutions 1,200 packs, and Phantasmal Flames 5,000 packs — together with the
+published 95% confidence interval.
+Where a source article reports two different figures for the same rarity, the main-table
+figure is adopted and the alternate figure is kept in `alternateRatePct` rather than dropped,
+as documented under "Known source contradictions" above. Sets with no published English rate
+are marked pending rather than estimated.
+If you quote a rate, quote it with its sample size and confidence interval. Licensed under
+CC BY 4.0 — attribution to PullSim and to the linked TCGplayer article.
+Suggested citation:
+
+```
+PullSim. (2026). PullSim pull rates: sourced Pokemon TCG pack rates with sample sizes and
+confidence intervals [Data set]. GitHub.
+https://github.com/zin294/pullsim-pull-rates
+```
+
+Authoritative figures live in `data/<set-slug>.json`:
+
+- [data/ascended-heroes.json](https://github.com/zin294/pullsim-pull-rates/blob/main/data/ascended-heroes.json) — Ascended Heroes, 2,000 packs
+- [data/prismatic-evolutions.json](https://github.com/zin294/pullsim-pull-rates/blob/main/data/prismatic-evolutions.json) — Prismatic Evolutions, 1,200 packs
+- [data/phantasmal-flames.json](https://github.com/zin294/pullsim-pull-rates/blob/main/data/phantasmal-flames.json) — Phantasmal Flames, 5,000 packs
+- [data/delta-reign.json](https://github.com/zin294/pullsim-pull-rates/blob/main/data/delta-reign.json) — Delta Reign, pending (no published English sample)
+
+## Disclaimer
+
+Unofficial fan project. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Nintendo,
+Creatures Inc., GAME FREAK, or The Pokemon Company. Card names and artwork belong to their
+respective owners; card records come from TCGdex, which defines which cards exist in a
+rarity but never sets that rarity's rate.