typhoon-predict / evaluation /release_data /meranti_video.json
euler314's picture
Add verified 50-member Soudelor, Mangkhut and Meranti films; refresh Fung-wong
2c8fbd7 verified
Raw History Blame Contribute Delete
18.4 kB
{
"model": "Trackformer 1.2",
"storm": "MERANTI",
"storm_id": "2016253N13144",
"issue_time_utc": "2016-09-10T00:00:00Z",
"members": 50,
"device": "mps",
"checkpoint_sha256": "f194a23d3f91ea76ad776dfad942fabd669eeae8b3fd665815463095367e9ee0",
"inference_weights_sha256": "db49f36e85a3766defc4c172746897a1f783705d1ce8e6f9dfb8e87ae1d902cb",
"source_module_sha256": {
"model.py": "5dab06c20224cf48c51302122455ee7e16948f977bf4b760fd8aff5d443ab0bc",
"baseline_model.py": "6c05941fd93baaca04508877edc69f8f0394b70e0a64e734ef0d2c1e8832246a",
"v165_base.py": "5c9473993a19d0fed00055494b5c1f50c1006aaf46551ff50145f67048c3374a"
},
"data_sha256": "565343166656155e8f227372cce2947536afe83593820c89790606e5ac909baf",
"ensemble_policy": {
"method": "seeded causal input-perturbation ensemble, not latent samples",
"member_count": 50,
"member_ids": [
0,
1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18,
19,
20,
21,
22,
23,
24,
25,
26,
27,
28,
29,
30,
31,
32,
33,
34,
35,
36,
37,
38,
39,
40,
41,
42,
43,
44,
45,
46,
47,
48,
49
],
"seeds": [
2043,
2044,
2045,
2046,
2047,
2048,
2049,
2050,
2051,
2052,
2053,
2054,
2055,
2056,
2057,
2058,
2059,
2060,
2061,
2062,
2063,
2064,
2065,
2066,
2067,
2068,
2069,
2070,
2071,
2072,
2073,
2074,
2075,
2076,
2077,
2078,
2079,
2080,
2081,
2082,
2083,
2084,
2085,
2086,
2087,
2088,
2089,
2090,
2091,
2092
],
"weights": [
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02,
0.02
],
"global_noise_normalized_std": 0.025,
"regional_noise_normalized_std": 0.015,
"global_smoothing_kernel": 5,
"regional_smoothing_kernel": 9,
"native_detail_available": false,
"missing_native_history_remains_masked": true,
"input_sha256": [
"7811fae269a89d39055641c07a54a58c9a2138292770377facf10aa3c566c9f3",
"e705eca1caeb1894566529cee2033e7335c10aa82253d91232f55c2bd3182c83",
"1a8072a0058e98a7475d0f210fd1d1d263c613e0245e7ca560d84db57c69d84d",
"282b23faf709f9594f4b7cb0ee0ef167a5529b2c27ee9eaee44ae05b41962d7d",
"f4fa26e3ec9be3ad2c3308567a532640e03d32034a83f4a0c5a4f0818d0fdcdc",
"5d1a641aa5d1f78a2095635b7b07849a4f31f3460f03a1e68aea995c08eb3f36",
"9d104d15ca512617c8197c285b30583d4812698c8315b63f660a6b76a347a278",
"e81b5f19b3147cc2edd14f7001aa4756b2b0f341c516bd234560ebfe527c214f",
"5691c3f22a7ec3a3023f3b97fbe08424537e0ad3dba132515ed9100d1780e5d7",
"6193dfed568cc79f765cdf7bc821b5423ca81f2a30f8c4ce66f54f035cde349f",
"1bc0ce908f3b532f619a20c378e56249df9b098075f9f7a2d6cdcae8a1b908a2",
"e3abebe03f6c8a615b5f55d0787e09398df0f34ebc3ea0c5ef0c70b61447fae3",
"260454f6307ed3bf3bbfc8358f7b140a28c2156893c5f74162909e4505c0cf68",
"70f41244b0a0de529ec93bad2a784c30489598039ca55560578d11e3da0e2eba",
"e044f521b381e061709871e85263c0352ae181884d2991a3050493e26432ba8b",
"f5b58762df6e51d43552b7c2d5116f82486ac8f832eee0c0a5210dde663a11b4",
"cb96040ea782cd3c5c7c54299093521e45cc3971c7160e5ed75e059a463adadf",
"4c47df6c8a827bee3e3e727956ab01d5ca3947439a7ee232db5ac043953c13db",
"a8ad58f0247db2dd4dc7f98028cea32ff2b0ad8e5202b4317fac8bd3e72ce337",
"ac4d577c061d9e3bffcb6b5ebb96758fdeb2602eb13ad362528f19c35b4777dd",
"4ca38692adba785ae496c462046590f232c4483e0ebea88733a1063e1d87b2dd",
"21ff242455e1633beda06cc2ad68944983804f1160c35c6a5b4bf72122b163d5",
"7e1b9552d7af2d8cf4a6d076af06670c8e3889c7dafc96d1305fab251fbf02c6",
"ca3c6d1cd4d8343e136b42eb39d0103e6cfedbeb65a98e427d1c1c9ab1954264",
"7c9f5fd36c8860822fd79b3714073c77f27376e338bfced5daea1793a0cc10c2",
"f48f54e1cbf7b1ca274bd5481005564a31b5ff2c149ba033b5f05ad1422968c1",
"06802ff292cc1c13385962e92f6ada2579a5aca6649eafd26d2c4711f517f205",
"17d4e6e9ce51da36d7b1f9ccc41bd85e39e7d648c1d86e010575ab4ddd3e2b08",
"096f01647b9f1eeffc631ab647e8b317b54dbb560965245c23c5c8b06109fab8",
"7f5943f95ede82fba09dee0caec6375be6d7069c0064353fd98880f19f7fa940",
"4697c0a9303e5b05accbcc47a082f428ca7e2c8de97c6736c41aa4794c537e03",
"6680320024541de3032fab9ab03f031f79cefe90a58e02dbdf6a39019870cb87",
"dfac35b9d768e8a6ab9ada94f1812e6dcc236f02949cc38994d9cfbf336d70f9",
"11c4c1bdd09a68bdb2073406f121ae2d0eef08e7a92cdaee24b5200b4dd26367",
"20da8254bf5feccc9ef48b89187d21823e31dcfb7eb0edebaba6ce3bb7b888d6",
"ae79d06ee3d786008adfc606b97ea8732fbbc91c7454f6ca1785302179a527ad",
"07131e6a6e1062ba96e38a10c5e71fca497c43476974165bacc33379ec51dfe4",
"62ca876c719c831af34103987bd880eb95e7003ca22ad7c3fd7b6c611bf1713d",
"05538e92c1e5b0fd0731e3a65108e24ffb98e3378f0935c40907130576072699",
"c9af61929ceafa268b4075cef03c79b2890754d63f4fc65cf5195e29cac57dd1",
"d717f922f48ffe8b5d6eba4214b09c67200c00710e9ead010024ec61d9f47170",
"227c833d104f882d6d58f5ccb454447f226aaf97abb0a81b3a747edee6cddaa4",
"35302255aaf735aa68bff3bff6fe2b7cd2c0cc512562ab922da1ab32d158cbd1",
"43215bb6dfa6a57f65a7412286618b6a3a199d5bc3258139bc547445e816a0f9",
"16eaf4b083f5233206dd31133bfbc24289b6eb5353a4cec43073b3cd803cf0e9",
"adcc1791517adfa853e79c6915caaab725b40b16b7be7870289508a52c627a0e",
"c0dc2111a6bd3559b0975c2a44f9aa096688bb2ed5c079c16e757a275ee5172a",
"42072edbddd0b1d188fec8cce37d97b1977c998b3176c942f51e6ab8e05d0e54",
"34d9abce7ffb1b4191f6c5a45b9c8db96412c84f90e0b589cb74c3cbb804b8d3",
"ff7f7d5f2756dbf18b73f350426b945615e5233704a729f8e548087d4babe65c"
],
"route_sha256": [
"fc408d9fd4110f294e0ca024224f61006ee99b8314c768a2237169ede55b56b8",
"c644d441a8d714c67b56581ca5c3fe14fdeab3b950cbcd1976755a4251dcbc9c",
"9a6544989c689958e1890c03bc1c4b5da9836ff0a622ba2bf932d4775d9c24e9",
"59a40639266c197d873721017c59cf96edddeb9898649edd335f3a13c8391ed6",
"246764e29e85b4b5f80c7c21797a4016303ed6a82fcaa4482c48257367b11996",
"8f25f330cb7cc1c3221eaf740264f0ed532f30e64b56e1cb90a2471cbce4007e",
"71ea6cb3adfde1e76f6091f43ab35b320a7519cdd215b9212fa50b89c30fe517",
"1160e3910ce6fbbffbd5d1450de40f593c98147be7341aa9159b562cc236d571",
"98ee47fd83e4a38ab4ce9a967f577927350376b398b94676dc3b1f8e4443e710",
"7fc706b5f358a19c14fe87ec1590f263afe2288b4e456d025cd99fb34996f7f1",
"d835dfe7a36f2dc807d9d5b6612121d956be47ef36e235809575e47e120b5d79",
"f9d3f8ed1a030e1120301cace862141a0ffdd2af9daa54f55271b81a992b6eda",
"5129e135cc320470d76b28fbea1800db14963e25f08be15d02c19ba9fda1dc41",
"a60a26c7b6e1fb98a99fa09b852fb0aa3ba7a0984e7b8dbd12f13396879c9ae5",
"e7d0c1f1363681d18ba3a7a248608aef1159e87c48b905f6168c20f0beb5843f",
"d3909a4458e597cf6c935e2012d962515d4ce8548c91db76a51c8cdaa84d1ab9",
"041467e346cf1f9582b35d3198ef811d4fe89265545b4ad469aa95e147cbb4a4",
"8665f716bfc10e136ee17d9292591cb3cea6773f76406499ca4fbea531b3e111",
"fd4aef7b3de6b84c4989643656478bd9b5603598b9733d1a478fdaff0a01cfc3",
"5a374d8fd2e661931a3f84001df784849efd4ac703164ea2e58a87998549071b",
"c4d4e0869ecce06f0a8510a506216c0c711fbfbbc3768413eb5616d7b8a0199e",
"b67312735977825c91711cef8a5f0457d798246d617963def5ac9a4197d1655f",
"380827250245972394a4d3379fcb894754ed7fa34e938df3e70cd69901b0afb3",
"3df1a69dd819c388e0a3889211e2bd02357b96500e78c9061ecfd1b94a0c80e8",
"6743d7dc402dca7084b05e3daf96dc0b2267050401a53b8e3adfa08a95612962",
"7d55064b8293edfb1c33b316dad057562df88b516324a57763ddeb14bff96424",
"257b16599c2e6c300cc7215a97f2b595944dd01a7bf41efd6042c9bf209c92e9",
"2995cc983dd502d39cdfbda287f29fad17a97f4fe796bf5a1d028d1e017f390d",
"d156dce43fb12eeea41d3d3cb497fed4c023bba5cfb37108e21992a35fe21bf8",
"b5380179a62883f503228c63e51399d5ff533524b76a2a103f1aecf2cdd866ee",
"483d67734b64bdda00bbf3d1465825b4316000273ee4d82f87f0454105e190e9",
"9d40677412282ff2a07f2f29ec9525149962cfc1735cf7acc2f69119ae143c3c",
"daa2dfbbaf80c6554c0cd3e925dcece06860f8271d010ef381576cd78598eb95",
"f0a57000e7b3c09205ea8f7450182ae0f4b17a0a070f8d49f8c1e79e65d1cec2",
"2466a6cfbf7aba621bed78bb19a7cb0f9694bd68e3dae0ec4828a14a5bba5427",
"998476b988e7285ae155683d919c90c66b13fffac490640d681637741d68798e",
"25ae956611d262d737996c500e81a85ae11f7d6de0968129f3d953bba4deea8d",
"a7934c4212448acc75c8a287017b5b66bedad58fa7596da333b607b932ce1585",
"5fb405beb1b11feffc736b2e8d578f0be86dcc52c50525c5298a26be4b09d22a",
"415292eb5366165c9cba9da1c190027e219e1fe2ad274160d8ba35bef58dbc8b",
"f0b2640e26652c420b135f2cbf77e175f47072e8cf3108daee1b03401316944a",
"47a90281f2f62573402172cd55253b9ffaaab37b1a6f1db34feeee37e67284b5",
"88d9c904e5b2e8bcea9eb8394a515afbcf515a681ea54cfab902cc3ff8e1ba19",
"b8ba83c9c18ea66a192f5a0f332a0e811abe5b6c3ba6726a8d6f105484b941f3",
"dca0a5ed52f643bbacd64d060e784c2d9ad8b6c46c566e64b405b4032bc266bd",
"533c9e65b4387cfaf84ddb29cf4c8b3bfc3178b137e1e08633f4c3a53ebfb004",
"fa302e6ce8a86b4b97f6756b5c0570ae706d0696116456dae270f3c85b946080",
"a014d615329126a9e66b4036c5d02c187fcec34a7d16a2b03b2c9fd7210390ce",
"7aff006d3000531a338a81ccb3fe86f73b52873ea7057775ff762f9a6b95d0d3",
"558301f329c97d9756c0eaed21c952ff3db3ad096cf6dcf19d4f9fd0405aa400"
],
"basin_field_sha256": [
"6ff2b39473c08194db3c6325bd7d3a557beca9fce66c2e019414a4488fdc756d",
"9f3868816fa92ec24f7a48b2b0e128b3d4f6afc11fe120ba6348bbe60f848e75",
"5e7c38598681aae76c966ed3efba35ba58f8636201ad00e6803df4f94177d678",
"e7de19067b131edb4a0ffeb9d225c4ece73dc92e66efeb00b2bafb1e1fb0a8c9",
"7732e845bc3c0c268338e7ed824da01a2d94e88c1c85f12d0e630737d7a94105",
"9a4b53e08dd2a15a69eb5d1fba2939ec697a5498fcb5e94d19c0b1fb6ae7e4b7",
"73eccc752b949705108e434efbb958e5be821644c92f71f4f117e6733d1bf1d4",
"937c3151ee0a6e3c93ce23b9b4a8eddf6177fce5f7fdb411f795ec86610082f2",
"fdaca1af373e693b093a94c036d3084426721be601572ce2dc2d82c29bb30b88",
"9162e01dbd04b9a8b4394a10251f53536f98a69716bd898edd7a1a317e4a63c3",
"f79d86071a36afd6dd165724c895510f530785a40c339c345cda0166ff1144d7",
"41cee1ed62a14a1814f48a0342c5ee01f55daf4fe6706fdf74f225a31b1f5025",
"e845be1ff4152cc006c370f11b956925a8d3b0dde08067c581ed62d5dfd75c2d",
"adf3527d746510dbfa106a638e4c61a75b7f9759b5ef084fb3b91123d1a7a2d2",
"79d0aa98d880d891598050b6910f15a038a798039dbc3a3fb7ebddfe5279ee51",
"69ebf40dce7f9106f4a9d44f829b12a42f0e708200bdff62062d81a7a5ee93c8",
"7c60ae1bf94cfadd863dd2fe74160e1c601a5a8b3b6424c90370479cd0e4c0f9",
"9c84157bcc653ea41315e3d476f932b6f9232fc6923df292836547cb76d03c67",
"64d918d3d6eb97a851c5a51da7fa10cfb43c011568ced45f647eea6e2696831a",
"ee8e105b6aa57accfe3e2259ab97ee85caa51dc63ad9bdfc0092d9cb45cb129a",
"50b26fbce27bf3e3cae8dfa09a5f3afeae69c732104ec5c82253fc84d557fdb8",
"4fc48fd4963586943e1dc167b3b89ba108c041d48707d04137095ae76bbfda49",
"100ab46f9d92542d68ba3620d63685b5eb41dff532075d9ef136663cdfae8237",
"199b3ea7e72f7d846192c645dc8a8b62ac842578a2273a9ead1291aa4b978f32",
"052fdff6399414934f20d0c5b30b4d1187fe41f77c5ce9db86986e4a96acca69",
"3aa2f8ecb38959c01c1db85e5831a97913a3e91c27846c67b67feb3da917c74f",
"ded5011652cdb30186d074f9ec95363164db7ebc8c772995370f7d97d170fd77",
"5837fcfcd912a502f269ac647098b57ed845638aeb2cb797cd7bc37e93d55c7c",
"494ab352ca415187a9fb77a70b1f5a136ef9481535606605201d115f9037e806",
"1f16067eeb3cf699cfd31f475914d46b7264f426d87b163a3a3b073fb74bb577",
"f5b2fe586e4ab5293b69d2ac198c84a0a2fc6f341cb797ea7cdbde8407e9000e",
"c3f402d658a53533d4dd0345b04307ae395b592595235d46af6c3bb0999451a6",
"bec8ef4eafb04ebea7d2473d285938edca3ba2a256679645a69736a1415c93e0",
"bd87c845371eccad16c9035c1d34cd8024941e4597cf0c3b8b9cf33528bb8f9e",
"d04937d05d68063f64037bccd3841cc9efd88e92c9c5e423b38244bcc0e2d3e5",
"d95550d25078f66c8c3bca881c5e7e57e95e226160eaeea106a93ada92e978bc",
"91ba20f606ffcb5604d435d0d755466953c90b6c1e891647bb69a2c30db75942",
"98f8c78aa182607dbc07b574981af94f77ecc48a6e1e0dd89d0ff2406c78e5d4",
"f5de7c434feaa8a0ddf3b67817d6f41c77b70a222cc056b60ef4b98a639a81c0",
"6f3a52bfc1da970d02487b0c5cd9be8c6fd5a997baebe2a67ea60a88c8df6f39",
"9d79e4e215a98006f103461c984be1373701d12080d846bcf31860c8cf7742c2",
"2434ed82f09ae0593d4474bc471c1951182a640eba4fcf70fe3cff1942da962e",
"cae0233a0652f2cb9a761cb27f9434930ca2848c95fcadbec95eab9c6150e7b0",
"86182d92d17c6e34d2a16b456d63763c93e4b09e509533135666b932eb858aa1",
"74d062511ad43489d03f79301ddfdd0c98d1fc7ed06f2fcd2f51ec9869410cf2",
"a7d50b9be76db57c9e014d7456f87619a7f5bd5743fe684280a4f5763a8e21ac",
"bc7640b7f0fffaa1e18923c465893ff7d5447399ed017f7c8bf7aee1a650497c",
"5fb9d1cbdb4b5d0e428593569543c462e81daa26d89137730421397c6520d3f7",
"cc7be6805c7cccb072ab3bb1b6f0f6c73c97827b4b603472a45ca0df329431d5",
"f58ed77a21382578021b4072c1f308baf22d7179f8cf37bfb8b100b127284d86"
],
"mean_policy": "Equal-weight physical basin and fixed-issue regional grids; member-mean coordinates and central pressures separately. Moving-core grids are not directly averaged.",
"inference_seconds": 11.704
},
"leads_hours": [
6,
12,
18,
24,
30,
36,
42,
48,
54,
60,
66,
72,
78,
84,
90,
96,
102,
108,
114,
120
],
"display_bounds": [
100,
180,
0,
60
],
"source_inputs": {
"source": "Existing exact NOAA NCEP Reanalysis-1 basin atlas; retrospective analyses.",
"channels": [
"mslp",
"hgt500",
"uwnd850",
"vwnd850",
"uwnd500",
"vwnd500",
"uwnd200",
"vwnd200"
],
"units": [
"hPa",
"m",
"m/s",
"m/s",
"m/s",
"m/s",
"m/s",
"m/s"
],
"analysis_times_utc": [
"2016-09-08T00:00:00Z",
"2016-09-08T06:00:00Z",
"2016-09-08T12:00:00Z",
"2016-09-08T18:00:00Z",
"2016-09-09T00:00:00Z",
"2016-09-09T06:00:00Z",
"2016-09-09T12:00:00Z",
"2016-09-09T18:00:00Z",
"2016-09-10T00:00:00Z"
],
"source_sha256": {
"track_build/basin_all_int8.npz": "71e5f1bb46c44e5936c506a3f8af021c1fe94c238ed030c05c66e8f342374b6d",
"track_build/basin_slp_atlas_float16.npy": "9f6a4ec7b2f6beadfa1075af9176d2a653e39a824d504d989e5e56e19c571521",
"output/automatic-forecast-cache/geography.npz": "f5471471da4a1e15f85fbfb2529065806281357c8e50cb272fcd2b02e8553b96"
},
"subset_sha256": "262bdd148cbfcc5a9e2d03809d5a8ae4f51cedaba00607d66b59e8cb44860d21",
"physical_weather_sha256": "243324bbd2f33bd1e9da8e6d930fccef29fe29124f64a4ee71982e2b4a68697f",
"normalized_input_sha256": "5a65f65e765edd48adfa45938d4d452fbec001f7e567afe1b930b5d44e14f9e6",
"issue_observation": {
"name": "MERANTI",
"storm_id": "2016253N13144",
"issue_time_utc": "2016-09-10T00:00:00Z",
"lat": 14.5,
"lon": 140.0,
"motion": [
-118.42381937104953,
22.23999999999992
],
"pressure_hpa": 1004.0,
"wind_kt": null
},
"motion_note": "Only current and exact previous six-hour observed coordinates; east/north km per six hours.",
"causal": true,
"future_labels_used_for_inference": false
},
"observed_csv_sha256": "4348af2679b4be0d53ec630bccda759044663a1f57e2bbd5c1d19428aab562fc",
"observed_route_source": "Exact matching-timestamp IBTrACS LAT/LON; display verification only.",
"observed_pressure_source": "IBTrACS TOKYO_PRES JMA best track, not JMA forecasts; missing labels remain missing.",
"field_source": "Equal-weight physical means of all 50 basin and fixed-issue regional fields; no directly averaged moving grids.",
"native_history_available": false,
"grid_note": "0.25-degree regional reconstruction sampling, not native effective resolution. Basin sampling is 2.5 degrees. Coarse basin only outside the fixed regional patch.",
"regional_bounds": [
125.0,
155.0,
-0.5,
29.5
],
"first_forecast_lead_outside_regional_hours": 84,
"metrics": {
"mean_track_error_km": 192.93618137804032,
"track_error_120h_km": 453.3382857069367,
"central_pressure_mae_hpa": 13.897787475585938,
"pressure_valid_leads": 20,
"position_valid_leads": 20
},
"selection": "Calendar issue chosen before running these forecasts, without screening errors. Historical development showcase; dates may overlap checkpoint fitting/validation years. Not an untouched test or evidence of no overfitting.",
"video": {
"file": "docs/trackformer_1_2_meranti.mp4",
"duration_seconds": 23,
"forecast_states": 20,
"codec": "H.264",
"encoder": "h264_videotoolbox",
"sha256": "e12a83b0e129e5a5accb3a8d396481ea6f72979777d70d17fc9a18e6ad810a59",
"playback": "Each six-hour state held for 1 second; final frame held 3 seconds extra. No interpolated forecast states."
},
"video_layout": {
"overview_bounds": [
100,
180,
0,
60
],
"closeup_bounds": [
114.0,
143.0,
11.0,
29.0
],
"pressure_colors": "Blue below 1013.25 hPa; red above. Fixed range throughout each film.",
"map_graticule": false,
"geographic_route_adjustment": false
}
}