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| "valid_time_utc": "2018-09-16T00:00:00Z", |
| "summary": { |
| "method": "pressure-scaled-issue-structure-experimental-v1", |
| "members": 50, |
| "definitions": { |
| "units": "km", |
| "quantity_kind": "radius_not_diameter", |
| "thresholds_kt": [ |
| 34, |
| 50, |
| 64 |
| ], |
| "quadrant_order": [ |
| "NE", |
| "SE", |
| "SW", |
| "NW" |
| ], |
| "quadrant_statistic": "maximum_extent_within_quadrant", |
| "target_wind_averaging_seconds": 60, |
| "validated_wind_averaging_seconds": null, |
| "validated_surface_height_m": null, |
| "rmw": "issue-time reported RMW carried forward unchanged; persistence baseline", |
| "official_scoring_allowed": false |
| }, |
| "aggregation": "diagnose each physical forecast member then equal-weight mean", |
| "estimates": { |
| "wind_estimate_kt": { |
| "mean": 104.85431516582503, |
| "p10": 103.29189868308315, |
| "p90": 107.19399012825095, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "rmw_persistence_km": { |
| "mean": 9.259999999999998, |
| "p10": 9.26, |
| "p90": 9.26, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r34_NE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 258.5012595368126, |
| "p10": 252.93047167597734, |
| "p90": 266.87701195776447, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r34_SE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 198.62692125030287, |
| "p10": 194.14224864388166, |
| "p90": 205.37388688511803, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r34_SW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 198.62692125030287, |
| "p10": 194.14224864388166, |
| "p90": 205.37388688511803, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r34_NW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 258.5012595368126, |
| "p10": 252.93047167597734, |
| "p90": 266.87701195776447, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r50_NE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 123.65370860079048, |
| "p10": 119.11799448943927, |
| "p90": 130.53612026181253, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r50_SE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 93.00002850463217, |
| "p10": 89.53489172738873, |
| "p90": 98.25981535519881, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r50_SW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 93.00002850463217, |
| "p10": 89.53489172738873, |
| "p90": 98.25981535519881, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r50_NW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 123.65370860079048, |
| "p10": 119.11799448943927, |
| "p90": 130.53612026181253, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r64_NE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 55.04720672340676, |
| "p10": 52.10190683532612, |
| "p90": 59.56237514628805, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r64_SE_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 44.514642404941334, |
| "p10": 42.41468482395419, |
| "p90": 47.72149384506823, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r64_SW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 44.514642404941334, |
| "p10": 42.41468482395419, |
| "p90": 47.72149384506823, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| }, |
| "r64_NW_estimate_km": { |
| "mean": 55.04720672340676, |
| "p10": 52.10190683532612, |
| "p90": 59.56237514628805, |
| "valid_members": 50, |
| "total_members": 50 |
| } |
| }, |
| "official_scoring_allowed": false |
| } |
| } |
| ], |
| "official_wind_or_radius_skill_score": null, |
| "physical_50_member_means_verified": true, |
| "observed_plus_zero_alignment_verified": true, |
| "coverage": { |
| "wind_estimate_kt": 20, |
| "rmw_persistence_km": 20, |
| "r34_NE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r34_SE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r34_SW_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r34_NW_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r50_NE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r50_SE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r50_SW_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r50_NW_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r64_NE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r64_SE_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r64_SW_estimate_km": 20, |
| "r64_NW_estimate_km": 20 |
| }, |
| "warning": "Retrospective development examples, not untouched tests. RMW is persistence; no validated wind-period calibration.", |
| "chart": "mangkhut_wind_radius.png", |
| "source_receipt_sha256": "a0042456e27a892b2af1344af143514f08224a9eba9291841f03c994e86f8be8", |
| "source_reference": "Original immutable /Volumes/D member archive; original files unchanged." |
| } |
|
|
