Publish illustrated Trackformer 1.2 paper with Fung-wong figures

README.md

@@ -81,9 +81,9 @@ This is the user-selected **Fung-wong route-and-pressure example**, not a claim
 
 Native-detail input history was unavailable; the regional pressure reconstruction uses 0.25° output sampling, not native resolution. **From +66 h the forecast centre is outside the fixed regional patch**, so only the saved coarse basin field is displayed there. The video labels this coverage limit; it does not invent an extended detailed core. Member-mean central pressure still comes from each model member's moving-core readout, not the minimum of the displayed mean map. [Data, source hashes and video provenance](evaluation/release_data/fung_wong_video.json).
 
-### Architecture-only paper
+### Illustrated technical paper
 
-The **[Trackformer 1.2 technical paper (PDF)](paper/trackformer.pdf)** describes only the detailed architecture and how forecasts work: input tensors, multiscale attention, recurrent basin transport, moving pressure core, centre association, physical pressure reconstruction, objectives and 50-member means. [Editable LaTeX source](paper/trackformer.tex). Benchmark results remain separate in the evaluation notes. Historical material is recoverable from Git history and the [1.1 release](https://github.com/yu314-coder/typhoon-predict/releases/tag/trackformer-1.1).
+The **[Trackformer 1.2 technical paper (PDF)](paper/trackformer.pdf)** explains the input tensors, multiscale attention, recurrent basin transport, moving pressure core, centre association, objectives and 50-member means. It includes a **model-structure diagram**, **1.2-versus-1.1 benchmark bars and lead-error curves**, and the selected **Fung-wong route, central-pressure timeline and model-generated isobar map**. Development-data limitations, short-lead regressions and pressure failures are reported alongside improvements. [Editable, self-contained LaTeX source](paper/trackformer.tex) · [Figure reproduction utility](release_tools/build_paper_figures.py). Historical material is recoverable from Git history and the [1.1 release](https://github.com/yu314-coder/typhoon-predict/releases/tag/trackformer-1.1).
 
 ## Recent pressure forecast with isobars
 
@@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ Only issue-time and earlier analyses are permitted. The prediction wrapper rejec
 | Folder | Contents |
 | --- | --- |
 | [`models/trackformer_1_2_field/`](models/trackformer_1_2_field/) | Current 1.2 model, inference wrapper and input/provenance contract |
-| [`paper/`](paper/) | Current architecture-only paper: editable source and PDF |
+| [`paper/`](paper/) | Illustrated architecture and development-evaluation paper: editable source and PDF |
 | [`evaluation/`](evaluation/) | Benchmark charts, selected forecast previews, metrics and saved plot data |
 | [`docs/`](docs/) | Evaluation protocols and published HTML/MP4 showcases |
 | [`release_tools/`](release_tools/) | Reproduction scripts and weight-export utility |

RELEASE_NOTES_TRACKFORMER_1_2.md

@@ -6,9 +6,11 @@ The attached archive includes inference-only weights, exact source modules, an i
 
 On the 270-case development cohort, 1.1 versus 1.2 mean-of-50 scores are: direction error **56.22° vs 44.82°**, route-shape similarity **0.7273 vs 0.8249**, path similarity **0.4983 vs 0.5727**, and mean track error **902.3 vs 714.4 km**. Direction uses 5,382 common valid steps. The old 1.1 report had stored latitude/longitude under a local-kilometre key; the new comparison repairs that coordinate interpretation and records the correction. Original artifacts remain available. These results are development comparisons, and no matched 1.1 pressure-field bar is claimed.
 
-The route gallery now shows six explicitly selected best-performing examples from distinct storms, with the selection rule and all case scores supplied. It is not representative evidence; the aggregate bars retain all 270 cases. A separate larger benchmark has frozen **270 distinct storms / 1,473 daily issues**, with daily scores averaged per storm and storms weighted equally. Its forecasts are being computed; results are pending.
+The route gallery shows six explicitly selected best-performing examples from distinct storms, with the selection rule and all case scores supplied. It is not representative evidence; the aggregate bars retain all 270 cases. A separate larger benchmark protocol freezes **270 distinct storms / 1,473 daily issues**, with daily scores averaged per storm and storms weighted equally. That expanded protocol is separate from the completed 270-case results in this paper.
 
-The README now shows the user-selected **Fung-wong MP4** in place of Yagi; the interactive PRAPIROON showcase remains removed. The forecast starts 7 November 2025 at 00 UTC and uses actual saved 50-member mean pressure fields and routes through +120 h. Central-pressure MAE is 7.36 hPa against JMA best track from IBTrACS. The broad route is similar but not perfectly overlapping: mean geographic error is 130.9 km and +120 h error is 142.3 km. This is a selected development example, not typical skill. From +66 h the forecast centre leaves the regional patch; the video explicitly labels that only the saved coarse basin field is shown there. No detailed core is invented outside coverage. The published paper and model weights are unchanged in this showcase update.
+The README shows the user-selected **Fung-wong MP4** in place of Yagi; the interactive PRAPIROON showcase remains removed. The forecast starts 7 November 2025 at 00 UTC and uses actual saved 50-member mean pressure fields and routes through +120 h. Central-pressure MAE is 7.36 hPa against JMA best track from IBTrACS. The broad route is similar but not perfectly overlapping: mean geographic error is 130.9 km and +120 h error is 142.3 km. This is a selected development example, not typical skill. From +66 h the forecast centre leaves the regional patch; the video explicitly labels that only the saved coarse basin field is shown there. No detailed core is invented outside coverage.
+
+The upgraded **illustrated technical paper** includes the detailed model architecture and equations, a module diagram, 1.2-versus-1.1 benchmark bars and lead-error curves, Fung-wong route and central-pressure curves, and the unmodified model-mean pressure field with 4 hPa isobars at +48 h. Its self-contained LaTeX embeds the saved figure data; `release_tools/build_paper_figures.py` reproduces the figure source from the published arrays. Selected examples are not representative performance, and the paper reports short-lead and pressure regressions. Model weights and implementation are unchanged.
 
 The Surigae illustration is a single forecast issued 2026-09-27 12 UTC, with 4 hPa isobars at +6/+24/+36 h. It is separate from the 50-member historical benchmark. Reproduction data and metric definitions are included. The model weights are unchanged in this documentation revision.
 

paper/trackformer.pdf

@@ -1,3 +1,3 @@
 version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
-oid sha256:bdfca35340399aab010bc11e2a0af82eedf3a5ee618324626e5aedc0ece5bdff
-size 178019
+oid sha256:8a8f055d83de393ae6f494dddc39187cf361a96a3d6d5ab920ef77f130af9369
+size 330235

paper/trackformer.tex

@@ -1,13 +1,27 @@
-\documentclass[11pt]{article}
+\documentclass[10pt]{article}
 \usepackage[margin=0.9in]{geometry}
 \usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,booktabs,array,microtype,xcolor}
+\usepackage{tikz,caption,fancyhdr}
+\usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta,positioning,calc}
+\definecolor{modelteal}{HTML}{00857D}
+\definecolor{baselinegray}{HTML}{65758B}
+\definecolor{ink}{HTML}{182C42}
+\definecolor{routepink}{HTML}{B31565}
+\captionsetup{font=small,labelfont=bf}
+\pagestyle{fancy}
+\fancyhf{}
+\fancyhead[L]{\small\textsc{Trackformer 1.2}}
+\fancyhead[R]{\small Architecture and development evaluation}
+\fancyfoot[C]{\small\thepage}
+\setlength{\headheight}{14pt}
 \usepackage[colorlinks=true,linkcolor=teal,urlcolor=teal]{hyperref}
+\hypersetup{pdftitle={Trackformer 1.2: Coupled Pressure-Field Evolution for Tropical-Cyclone Forecasting},pdfauthor={Yu Yao-Hsing},pdfsubject={Architecture and development evaluation}}
 \setlength{\parskip}{4pt}
 \setlength{\parindent}{0pt}
 \newcommand{\sample}{\mathcal{S}}
-\title{\textbf{Trackformer 1.2}\\[4pt]\large Architecture and Forecast-State Evolution}
+\title{\textbf{Trackformer 1.2: Coupled Pressure-Field\\Evolution for Tropical-Cyclone Forecasting}\\[5pt]\large Architecture, Forecast Dynamics and Development Evaluation}
 \author{Yu Yao-Hsing\\\small\url{https://github.com/yu314-coder/typhoon-predict}}
-\date{Implementation description --- 29 September 2026}
+\date{Research technical report --- 29 September 2026}
 \begin{document}
 \maketitle
 \begin{abstract}
@@ -16,9 +30,16 @@ core to forecast tropical-cyclone motion and central pressure. Recurrent
 convolutional networks evolve the fields; multiscale attention supplies
 environmental context. The reported centre is associated with a depression in
 the predicted core, and central pressure is sampled from that same field.
-Twenty six-hour transitions produce a five-day forecast. This paper describes
-only the released architecture, input contract, update equations, objectives
-and ensemble mechanism. It contains no benchmark comparisons or skill claims.
+Twenty six-hour transitions produce a five-day forecast. We describe the
+released architecture, input contract, update equations, objectives and
+50-member input-perturbation ensemble, illustrated by a module diagram.
+On a previously inspected development cohort of 270 forecast cases from
+90 storms, mean track error is 714.4 km for the 1.2 ensemble versus 902.3 km
+for the archived 1.1 route pipeline. These are output comparisons, not a
+controlled architecture ablation or evidence of untouched generalization.
+A selected Fung-wong example illustrates geographic route and pressure
+comparisons while retaining visible position, timing and intensity differences. All figures retain the saved
+predictions and explicitly separate aggregate evidence from selected examples.
 \end{abstract}
 
 \section{Design and forecast state}
@@ -38,17 +59,41 @@ $o$ the core-grid origin; $z$ the associated storm centre; $m$ displacement per
 six hours; and $v$ auxiliary maximum wind. Static geography $G$, regional
 coordinates $R$, issue intensity $I$ and masks $M$ stay fixed.
 
-\begin{center}\small
-\begin{tabular}{p{0.25\linewidth}p{0.63\linewidth}}
-\toprule
-Stage & Function\\\midrule
-Initialization & Past analyses and issue observations initialize fields and memories.\\
-Attention & Multiscale environmental tokens condition basin memory.\\
-Basin transition & Steering, backward transport and learned tendencies evolve eight fields.\\
-Core transition & A translated frame carries a recurrent pressure anomaly.\\
-Readout & Field-based association yields route and central pressure; pressure is reconstructed geographically.\\
-\bottomrule
-\end{tabular}\end{center}
+\begin{figure}[htbp]
+\centering
+\begin{tikzpicture}[font=\small,>=Latex,
+ box/.style={draw=ink!50,rounded corners=3pt,align=center,text width=4.6cm,minimum height=1.15cm,inner sep=6pt,fill=ink!3},
+ flow/.style={->,thick,ink!75}]
+\node[box,text width=12.0cm] (inputs) {\textbf{Causal issue packet: nine analyses, $-48$ to $0$ h}\\
+Basin $9\!\times\!8\!\times\!25\!\times\!33$; regional MSLP $9\!\times\!1\!\times\!121\!\times\!121$;\\
+static geography, observed centre, recent motion, intensity and validity masks};
+\node[box,below=0.45cm of inputs,text width=12.0cm] (init) {\textbf{Observation-conditioned initialization}\\
+32-channel basin/core memories; moving $65\!\times\!65$ pressure core; issue-pressure prior};
+\node[box,anchor=north,fill=modelteal!7] (attention) at ($(init.south)+(-2.75,-0.5)$) {\textbf{Environmental attention}\\134 pooled tokens; width 64\\2 Transformer blocks; 825 queries};
+\node[box,right=0.75cm of attention,fill=routepink!5] (proposal) {\textbf{Moving-frame proposal}\\Steering + previous motion\\+ learned displacement residual};
+\node[box,below=0.55cm of attention,fill=modelteal!7] (basin) {\textbf{Basin evolution}\\Multiscale convolution + transport\\8 fields and 32-channel memory};
+\node[box,below=0.55cm of proposal,fill=routepink!5] (core) {\textbf{Relative core evolution}\\Advected anomaly + tendency\\20-km grid; 32-channel memory};
+\node[box,below=0.6cm of $(basin.south)!0.5!(core.south)$,text width=11.3cm] (readout) {\textbf{Coupled geographic readout}\\
+Pressure-associated centre within 300 km; pressure sampled at that centre;\\
+basin + regional pressure fields, coverage masks and auxiliary wind};
+\draw[flow] (inputs)--(init);
+\draw[flow] (init.south)-|(attention.north);
+\draw[flow] (init.south)-|(proposal.north);
+\draw[flow] (attention)--(basin);
+\draw[flow] (proposal)--(core);
+\draw[flow] (basin)--node[midway,above=2pt,font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=1pt]{fields}(core);
+\draw[flow] (basin.south)--(basin.south|-readout.north);
+\draw[flow] (core.south)--(core.south|-readout.north);
+\node[below=0.25cm of readout,align=center,font=\scriptsize,text=ink] {Shared transition repeated 20 times: +6, +12, $\ldots$, +120 h.\\
+50 perturbed input histories $\rightarrow$ 50 rollouts $\rightarrow$ separate route, pressure and common-grid field means.};
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\caption{Released model structure. The basin branch supplies environmental
+information to the moving core; motion is proposed before the pressure core determines the reported
+centre. Boxes show functional groups, not independent models. Future observations
+are excluded from inference. The ensemble contains 50 input realizations of one
+network, not 50 trained networks.}
+\label{fig:architecture}
+\end{figure}
 
 \section{Inputs, geometry and outputs}
 Nine past analyses at $-48,-42,\ldots,0$ h form a tensor of shape
@@ -157,8 +202,8 @@ Backtracing constructs departure coordinates $D(U_k)$ and
 \[
 g_{k+1}=\sample(g_k,D(U_k))+0.2\tanh(d_{0:8}).
 \]
-Six hours convert 1 m/s to 21.6 km. Coordinate conversion uses 111.2 km per
-latitude degree and $111.2\max(\cos\phi,0.2)$ km per longitude degree.
+Six hours convert 1 m/s to 21.6 km. A latitude degree is treated as 111.2 km.
+A longitude degree is treated as $111.2\max(\cos\phi,0.2)$ km.
 The attention-conditioned memory is advected by the same departure grid and
 updated with new features. Tendencies are in normalized channel units.
 This semi-Lagrangian-style update is not a complete or exactly conservative
@@ -264,7 +309,389 @@ checkpoint identity, 1.2.73 epoch 4, and exact weight/source hashes.
 \texttt{v165\_base.py} supplies sampling, evolution blocks and memories.
 All are in \texttt{models/trackformer\_1\_2\_field/}.
 
-This paper describes mechanisms only. Learned reconstructions, limited domain,
-input-source differences and retrospective availability constrain interpretation.
-The model remains a research artifact, not an operational warning system.
+Learned reconstructions, limited domain, input-source differences and retrospective
+availability constrain interpretation. The model remains a research artifact,
+not an operational warning system.
+
+
+\section{Development evaluation}
+\label{sec:evaluation}
+\subsection{Cohort and comparison boundary}
+The completed comparison comprises \textbf{270 issue cases from 90 storms},
+with three issues per storm and twenty six-hour leads per case. The 1.2 forecast
+is the mean of 50 causal historical-input perturbations; 1.1 uses its archived
+causal route pipeline. Cases, labels and forecast leads are matched, but the
+input pipelines differ. This is not a controlled architecture ablation.
+The cohort was repeatedly inspected and includes cases outside the intended
+Western Pacific domain. It is therefore development evidence, not an untouched
+or basin-specific validation claim.
+
+The original 1.1 archive stored absolute latitude/longitude under a local-km
+array name. The reproduced comparison converts those coordinates into the same
+issue-centred local projection used by 1.2 and checks a round trip to the
+original coordinates. Its corrected 902.3-km mean replaces the superseded
+1,036.3-km score; original forecasts are preserved.
+
+\begin{figure}[htbp]
+\centering
+\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]
+\begin{scope}[shift={(0,0)}]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries] at (2.5,4.05) {Mean position error};
+\node[rotate=90] at (-.75,1.75) {km; lower is better};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.0000)--(5,0.0000);
+\node[left] at (0,0.0000) {0};
+\draw[black!10] (0,1.5909)--(5,1.5909);
+\node[left] at (0,1.5909) {500};
+\draw[black!10] (0,3.1818)--(5,3.1818);
+\node[left] at (0,3.1818) {1000};
+\fill[baselinegray] (1.02,0) rectangle (1.7799999999999998,2.8710);
+\node[above] at (1.4,2.8710) {902.3};
+\node[below=3pt] at (1.4,0) {1.1};
+\fill[modelteal] (3.22,0) rectangle (3.98,2.2731);
+\node[above] at (3.6,2.2731) {714.4};
+\node[below=3pt] at (3.6,0) {1.2 mean of 50};
+\draw[black!55] (0,3.5)--(0,0)--(5,0);
+\end{scope}
+\begin{scope}[shift={(7.2,0)}]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries] at (2.5,4.05) {Six-hour heading error};
+\node[rotate=90] at (-.75,1.75) {degrees; lower is better};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.0000)--(5,0.0000);
+\node[left] at (0,0.0000) {0};
+\draw[black!10] (0,1.0000)--(5,1.0000);
+\node[left] at (0,1.0000) {20};
+\draw[black!10] (0,2.0000)--(5,2.0000);
+\node[left] at (0,2.0000) {40};
+\draw[black!10] (0,3.0000)--(5,3.0000);
+\node[left] at (0,3.0000) {60};
+\fill[baselinegray] (1.02,0) rectangle (1.7799999999999998,2.8110);
+\node[above] at (1.4,2.8110) {56.22};
+\node[below=3pt] at (1.4,0) {1.1};
+\fill[modelteal] (3.22,0) rectangle (3.98,2.2410);
+\node[above] at (3.6,2.2410) {44.82};
+\node[below=3pt] at (3.6,0) {1.2 mean of 50};
+\draw[black!55] (0,3.5)--(0,0)--(5,0);
+\end{scope}
+\end{tikzpicture}\par\vspace{7mm}
+\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries,align=center] at (6.100,4.100) {Error growth across forecast lead};
+\draw[black!10] (0.000,0)--(0.000,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (0.000,0) {6};
+\draw[black!10] (1.926,0)--(1.926,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (1.926,0) {24};
+\draw[black!10] (4.495,0)--(4.495,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (4.495,0) {48};
+\draw[black!10] (7.063,0)--(7.063,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (7.063,0) {72};
+\draw[black!10] (9.632,0)--(9.632,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (9.632,0) {96};
+\draw[black!10] (12.200,0)--(12.200,3.7);
+\node[below=3pt] at (12.200,0) {120};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.000)--(12.2,0.000);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,0.000) {0};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.925)--(12.2,0.925);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,0.925) {500};
+\draw[black!10] (0,1.850)--(12.2,1.850);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,1.850) {1000};
+\draw[black!10] (0,2.775)--(12.2,2.775);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,2.775) {1500};
+\draw[black!10] (0,3.700)--(12.2,3.700);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,3.700) {2000};
+\draw[black!55] (0,3.7)--(0,0)--(12.2,0);
+\node[font=\small] at (6.100,-.72) {Forecast lead (hours)};
+\node[font=\small,rotate=90] at (-1.05,1.850) {Mean position error (km)};
+\begin{scope}
+\clip (0,0) rectangle (12.2,3.7);
+\draw[baselinegray,dashed,thick] (0.0000,0.1347)--(0.6421,0.2659)--(1.2842,0.4048)--(1.9263,0.5515)--(2.5684,0.7090)--(3.2105,0.8669)--(3.8526,1.0296)--(4.4947,1.1938)--(5.1368,1.3637)--(5.7789,1.5348)--(6.4211,1.7135)--(7.0632,1.8929)--(7.7053,2.0728)--(8.3474,2.2493)--(8.9895,2.4266)--(9.6316,2.6085)--(10.2737,2.7982)--(10.9158,2.9886)--(11.5579,3.1884)--(12.2000,3.3915);
+\draw[modelteal,solid,thick] (0.0000,0.1373)--(0.6421,0.2516)--(1.2842,0.3709)--(1.9263,0.4892)--(2.5684,0.6140)--(3.2105,0.7368)--(3.8526,0.8550)--(4.4947,0.9752)--(5.1368,1.0968)--(5.7789,1.2152)--(6.4211,1.3405)--(7.0632,1.4703)--(7.7053,1.6031)--(8.3474,1.7378)--(8.9895,1.8779)--(9.6316,2.0217)--(10.2737,2.1710)--(10.9158,2.3276)--(11.5579,2.4906)--(12.2000,2.6518);
+\end{scope}
+\draw[baselinegray,dashed,thick] (0.250,-1.23)--(0.800,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (0.900,-1.23) {Trackformer 1.1};
+\draw[modelteal,solid,thick] (6.350,-1.23)--(6.900,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (7.000,-1.23) {Trackformer 1.2: mean of 50};
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\caption{Matched development comparison. Top: all-lead position and heading
+errors. Bottom: mean position error at each lead. Distances use the saved
+local-km projection. Heading uses 5,382 common valid steps where truth and
+both forecasts move more than 1 km. All 270 cases remain in the position
+scores, including poor and out-of-domain cases. No uncertainty intervals are
+available in these saved results.}
+\label{fig:benchmark}
+\end{figure}
+
+\subsection{Position, direction and shape are different quantities}
+Mean local-coordinate position error improves by 20.8\%, from 902.3 to
+714.4 km; +120 h error is 1,833.2 versus 1,433.4 km. The +6 h error is
+\emph{slightly worse} for 1.2 (74.2 versus 72.8 km), so the aggregate is not
+an improvement at every lead. Mean heading error is 56.22 versus 44.82 degrees.
+Centred route-shape similarity is 0.7273 versus 0.8249; normalized
+Fr\'echet path similarity is 0.4983 versus 0.5727. These metrics are not
+accuracy percentages and are not combined into a weighted rank.
+
+\textbf{Actual route alignment is the primary geographic criterion:}
+predicted and observed positions should coincide at the same valid times.
+The shape score removes translation and scale, so it can remain high for a
+geographically displaced forecast. It must not substitute for position error
+or an unshifted route overlay. The path score responds to displacement but
+is not a strict same-time distance.
+
+\clearpage
+\section{Selected Fung-wong case: alignment and intensity}
+The Fung-wong forecast is issued at 00 UTC on 7 November 2025, using the same
+saved 50-member policy. Figure~\ref{fig:fungwong} overlays predictions and exact
+six-hour observed coordinates without translating, rotating or scaling either
+route. Mean great-circle error is 130.9 km, +120 h error is 142.3 km and the
+maximum is 198.3 km: all twenty leads are within 200 km. These geographic
+errors are a separate diagnostic from the preceding local-coordinate scores.
+
+\begin{figure}[htbp]
+\centering
+\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries,align=center] at (6.100,7.800) {Fung-wong: geographic routes, +0 to +120 h};
+\draw[black!10] (0.000,0)--(0.000,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (0.000,0) {116};
+\draw[black!10] (2.033,0)--(2.033,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (2.033,0) {120};
+\draw[black!10] (4.067,0)--(4.067,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (4.067,0) {124};
+\draw[black!10] (6.100,0)--(6.100,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (6.100,0) {128};
+\draw[black!10] (8.133,0)--(8.133,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (8.133,0) {132};
+\draw[black!10] (10.167,0)--(10.167,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (10.167,0) {136};
+\draw[black!10] (12.200,0)--(12.200,7.4);
+\node[below=3pt] at (12.200,0) {140};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.529)--(12.2,0.529);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,0.529) {10};
+\draw[black!10] (0,2.643)--(12.2,2.643);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,2.643) {14};
+\draw[black!10] (0,4.757)--(12.2,4.757);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,4.757) {18};
+\draw[black!10] (0,6.871)--(12.2,6.871);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,6.871) {22};
+\draw[black!55] (0,7.4)--(0,0)--(12.2,0);
+\node[font=\small] at (6.100,-.72) {Longitude ($^\circ$E)};
+\node[font=\small,rotate=90] at (-1.05,3.700) {Latitude ($^\circ$N)};
+\begin{scope}
+\clip (0,0) rectangle (12.2,7.4);
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (11.1833,1.2686)--(10.4717,1.4271)--(9.8617,1.5857)--(9.1500,1.6914)--(8.1842,1.8500)--(7.3708,2.0614)--(6.2017,2.2729)--(5.3375,2.4843)--(4.4733,2.7486)--(3.7108,3.0657)--(2.9483,3.7000)--(2.1350,3.9643)--(1.6267,4.2814)--(1.4742,4.5457)--(1.2708,4.9157)--(1.1692,5.2329)--(1.1692,5.4971)--(1.2708,5.9200)--(1.4742,6.1843)--(1.5250,6.5014)--(1.6775,6.5543);
+\fill[ink] (11.1833,1.2686) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (10.4717,1.4271) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (9.8617,1.5857) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (9.1500,1.6914) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (8.1842,1.8500) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (7.3708,2.0614) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (6.2017,2.2729) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (5.3375,2.4843) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (4.4733,2.7486) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (3.7108,3.0657) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (2.9483,3.7000) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (2.1350,3.9643) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.6267,4.2814) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.4742,4.5457) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.2708,4.9157) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.1692,5.2329) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.1692,5.4971) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.2708,5.9200) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.4742,6.1843) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.5250,6.5014) circle (1pt);
+\fill[ink] (1.6775,6.5543) circle (1pt);
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (11.1833,1.2686)--(10.8126,1.5385)--(10.2634,1.7964)--(9.5878,2.0476)--(8.7916,2.2363)--(7.9528,2.4199)--(7.0713,2.6133)--(6.2164,2.7644)--(5.3473,2.9410)--(4.4594,3.1839)--(3.7004,3.5150)--(3.0550,3.9339)--(2.4588,4.2361)--(1.8929,4.4623)--(1.4884,4.7305)--(1.2671,5.0410)--(1.0867,5.3135)--(1.0185,5.5790)--(0.9671,5.7893)--(0.9844,5.9982)--(1.0752,6.2137);
+\fill[routepink] (11.1833,1.2686) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (10.8126,1.5385) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (10.2634,1.7964) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (9.5878,2.0476) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (8.7916,2.2363) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (7.9528,2.4199) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (7.0713,2.6133) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (6.2164,2.7644) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (5.3473,2.9410) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (4.4594,3.1839) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (3.7004,3.5150) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (3.0550,3.9339) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (2.4588,4.2361) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.8929,4.4623) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.4884,4.7305) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.2671,5.0410) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.0867,5.3135) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.0185,5.5790) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (0.9671,5.7893) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (0.9844,5.9982) circle (1pt);
+\fill[routepink] (1.0752,6.2137) circle (1pt);
+\end{scope}
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (0.250,-1.23)--(0.800,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (0.900,-1.23) {Observed best track};
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (6.350,-1.23)--(6.900,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (7.000,-1.23) {1.2 mean of 50};
+\end{tikzpicture}\par\vspace{5mm}
+\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries,align=center] at (6.100,4.200) {Central pressure: intensification and weakening};
+\draw[black!10] (0.000,0)--(0.000,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (0.000,0) {6};
+\draw[black!10] (1.926,0)--(1.926,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (1.926,0) {24};
+\draw[black!10] (4.495,0)--(4.495,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (4.495,0) {48};
+\draw[black!10] (7.063,0)--(7.063,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (7.063,0) {72};
+\draw[black!10] (9.632,0)--(9.632,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (9.632,0) {96};
+\draw[black!10] (12.200,0)--(12.200,3.8);
+\node[below=3pt] at (12.200,0) {120};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.712)--(12.2,0.712);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,0.712) {940};
+\draw[black!10] (0,1.662)--(12.2,1.662);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,1.662) {960};
+\draw[black!10] (0,2.612)--(12.2,2.612);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,2.612) {980};
+\draw[black!10] (0,3.562)--(12.2,3.562);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,3.562) {1000};
+\draw[black!55] (0,3.8)--(0,0)--(12.2,0);
+\node[font=\small] at (6.100,-.72) {Forecast lead (hours)};
+\node[font=\small,rotate=90] at (-1.05,1.900) {Central pressure (hPa)};
+\begin{scope}
+\clip (0,0) rectangle (12.2,3.8);
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (0.0000,2.8500)--(0.6421,2.6125)--(1.2842,2.3750)--(1.9263,2.1375)--(2.5684,1.9000)--(3.2105,1.4250)--(3.8526,1.1875)--(4.4947,0.4750)--(5.1368,0.4750)--(5.7789,1.1875)--(6.4211,1.9000)--(7.0632,2.3750)--(7.7053,2.6125)--(8.3474,2.6125)--(8.9895,2.6125)--(9.6316,2.6125)--(10.2737,2.8500)--(10.9158,3.0875)--(11.5579,3.1825)--(12.2000,3.2775);
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (0.0000,2.9281)--(0.6421,2.6225)--(1.2842,2.3125)--(1.9263,1.9838)--(2.5684,1.5806)--(3.2105,1.2532)--(3.8526,1.0846)--(4.4947,1.0421)--(5.1368,0.9741)--(5.7789,1.0095)--(6.4211,1.2812)--(7.0632,1.4903)--(7.7053,1.7742)--(8.3474,2.0435)--(8.9895,2.3351)--(9.6316,2.4446)--(10.2737,2.4997)--(10.9158,2.6524)--(11.5579,2.8034)--(12.2000,2.9488);
+\end{scope}
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (0.250,-1.23)--(0.800,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (0.900,-1.23) {JMA best track (IBTrACS)};
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (6.350,-1.23)--(6.900,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (7.000,-1.23) {1.2 member-mean pressure};
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\caption{Selected development example, not representative performance.
+Markers on the route denote matching six-hour valid times, including the issue
+centre. Observations are verification overlays, never forecast inputs.
+Pressure MAE is 7.36 hPa over twenty valid labels. The broad track and
+pressure evolution are similar, but the curves do not perfectly coincide;
+peak intensity and weakening timing remain imperfect.
+The companion MP4 shows the actual common-grid model pressure fields and
+4-hPa isobars; none of the pressure fields is moved to match observations.}
+\label{fig:fungwong}
+\end{figure}
+
+\begin{figure}[htbp]
+\centering
+\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]
+\node[font=\small\bfseries,align=center] at (5.750,8.900) {Fung-wong: model-mean MSLP at +48 h};
+\draw[black!10] (0.676,0)--(0.676,8.5);
+\node[below=3pt] at (0.676,0) {124};
+\draw[black!10] (3.382,0)--(3.382,8.5);
+\node[below=3pt] at (3.382,0) {128};
+\draw[black!10] (6.088,0)--(6.088,8.5);
+\node[below=3pt] at (6.088,0) {132};
+\draw[black!10] (8.794,0)--(8.794,8.5);
+\node[below=3pt] at (8.794,0) {136};
+\draw[black!10] (11.500,0)--(11.500,8.5);
+\node[below=3pt] at (11.500,0) {140};
+\draw[black!10] (0,0.000)--(11.5,0.000);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,0.000) {10};
+\draw[black!10] (0,2.833)--(11.5,2.833);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,2.833) {14};
+\draw[black!10] (0,5.667)--(11.5,5.667);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,5.667) {18};
+\draw[black!10] (0,8.500)--(11.5,8.500);
+\node[left=3pt] at (0,8.500) {22};
+\draw[black!55] (0,8.5)--(0,0)--(11.5,0);
+\node[font=\small] at (5.750,-.72) {Longitude ($^\circ$E)};
+\node[font=\small,rotate=90] at (-1.05,4.250) {Latitude ($^\circ$N)};
+\begin{scope}
+\clip (0,0) rectangle (11.5,8.5);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.3676,3.3674)--(2.3636,3.3646)--(2.2037,3.1875)--(2.3676,3.0968)--(2.5263,3.1875)--(2.5368,3.3624)--(2.5368,3.3646)--(2.5368,3.3646)--(2.3676,3.3674);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.3676,3.4279)--(2.2761,3.3646)--(2.1985,3.2801)--(2.1246,3.1875)--(2.1606,3.0104)--(2.1985,2.9949)--(2.3676,3.0026)--(2.3846,3.0104)--(2.5368,3.0971)--(2.6276,3.1875)--(2.6458,3.3646)--(2.5368,3.4411)--(2.3676,3.4279);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.1985,3.3728)--(2.1902,3.3646)--(2.0485,3.1875)--(2.0294,3.1116)--(1.9935,3.0104)--(2.0294,2.9701)--(2.1946,2.9155);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.7366,3.2780)--(2.7468,3.3646)--(2.7059,3.4312)--(2.5368,3.5175)--(2.3676,3.4885)--(2.1985,3.3728);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.3676,3.5506)--(2.3536,3.5417)--(2.1985,3.4451)--(2.1171,3.3646)--(2.0294,3.2556)--(1.9707,3.1875)--(1.8859,3.0104)--(2.0294,2.8492)--(2.1985,2.8335)--(2.3676,2.8466)--(2.5368,2.9075)--(2.6913,3.0104)--(2.7059,3.0246)--(2.8304,3.1875)--(2.8381,3.3646)--(2.7373,3.5417)--(2.7059,3.5654)--(2.5368,3.5926)--(2.3676,3.5506);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (1.8341,2.8056)--(1.8603,2.7858)--(2.0294,2.7549)--(2.1985,2.7454)--(2.3676,2.7542)--(2.5368,2.8109)--(2.5822,2.8333)--(2.7059,2.9013)--(2.8405,3.0104)--(2.8750,3.0611)--(2.9447,3.1875)--(2.9358,3.3646)--(2.8750,3.5113)--(2.8599,3.5417)--(2.7059,3.6581)--(2.5368,3.6671)--(2.3676,3.6240)--(2.2375,3.5417)--(2.1985,3.5174)--(2.0828,3.4030);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.5368,3.7515)--(2.4501,3.7188)--(2.3676,3.6973)--(2.1985,3.6015)--(2.1340,3.5417)--(2.0294,3.4401)--(1.9550,3.3646)--(1.8603,3.2523)--(1.8063,3.1875)--(1.7023,3.0104)--(1.6912,2.9603)--(1.6564,2.8333)--(1.6912,2.7575)--(1.8603,2.6690)--(2.0294,2.6647)--(2.1985,2.6573)--(2.3676,2.6589)--(2.5368,2.7014)--(2.7059,2.7756)--(2.8043,2.8333)--(2.8750,2.8850)--(3.0064,3.0104)--(3.0441,3.1073)--(3.0702,3.1875)--(3.0441,3.3203)--(3.0379,3.3646)--(2.9679,3.5417)--(2.8750,3.6631)--(2.7840,3.7188)--(2.7059,3.7613)--(2.5368,3.7515);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.2165,3.7013)--(2.1985,3.6916)--(2.0368,3.5417)--(2.0294,3.5344)--(1.8621,3.3646)--(1.8603,3.3624)--(1.7147,3.1875)--(1.6912,3.1474)--(1.6075,3.0104)--(1.5452,2.8333)--(1.5678,2.6562)--(1.6912,2.5846)--(1.8603,2.5617)--(2.0294,2.5592)--(2.1985,2.5448)--(2.3676,2.5395)--(2.5368,2.5774)--(2.7059,2.6428)--(2.7351,2.6562)--(2.8750,2.7239)--(3.0419,2.8333)--(3.0441,2.8354)--(3.1848,3.0104)--(3.2123,3.1875)--(3.1711,3.3646)--(3.0865,3.5417)--(3.0441,3.5991)--(2.9605,3.7188)--(2.8799,3.8161);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.3676,3.9086)--(2.3472,3.8958)--(2.1985,3.8100)--(2.0960,3.7188)--(2.0294,3.6604)--(1.9096,3.5417)--(1.8603,3.4922)--(1.7486,3.3646)--(1.6912,3.2930)--(1.6121,3.1875)--(1.5221,3.0299)--(1.5103,3.0104)--(1.4329,2.8333)--(1.4040,2.6562)--(1.5221,2.5031)--(1.6001,2.4792)--(1.6912,2.4594)--(1.8603,2.4487)--(2.0294,2.4438)--(2.1985,2.4209)--(2.3676,2.4088)--(2.5368,2.4385)--(2.6701,2.4792)--(2.7059,2.4901)--(2.8750,2.5528)--(3.0441,2.6393)--(3.0691,2.6562)--(3.2132,2.7664)--(3.2772,2.8333)--(3.3642,3.0104)--(3.3657,3.1875)--(3.3196,3.3646)--(3.2416,3.5417)--(3.2132,3.5817)--(3.1169,3.7188)--(3.0441,3.8280)--(2.9916,3.8958)--(2.8750,4.0145)--(2.7059,4.0277)--(2.5368,3.9829)--(2.3676,3.9086);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.5368,4.1221)--(2.4242,4.0729)--(2.3676,4.0495)--(2.1985,3.9494)--(2.1280,3.8958)--(2.0294,3.8131)--(1.9274,3.7188)--(1.8603,3.6538)--(1.7587,3.5417)--(1.6912,3.4613)--(1.6223,3.3646)--(1.5221,3.2186)--(1.5017,3.1875)--(1.3977,3.0104)--(1.3529,2.9080)--(1.3152,2.8333)--(1.2595,2.6562)--(1.2714,2.4792)--(1.3529,2.4033)--(1.5221,2.3435)--(1.6912,2.3211)--(1.8603,2.3116)--(2.0294,2.3036)--(2.0408,2.3021)--(2.1985,2.2734)--(2.3676,2.2560)--(2.5368,2.2814)--(2.6154,2.3021)--(2.7059,2.3223)--(2.8033,2.3487);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (3.4092,2.7069)--(3.4973,2.8333)--(3.5462,3.0104)--(3.5333,3.1875)--(3.4887,3.3646)--(3.4224,3.5417)--(3.3824,3.6001)--(3.3015,3.7188)--(3.2132,3.8570)--(3.1887,3.8958)--(3.1087,4.0729)--(3.0441,4.1516)--(2.8750,4.2066)--(2.7059,4.1794)--(2.5368,4.1221);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.5368,4.2743)--(2.4851,4.2500)--(2.3676,4.2010)--(2.1985,4.1100)--(2.1422,4.0729)--(2.0294,3.9938)--(1.9014,3.8958)--(1.8603,3.8592)--(1.7212,3.7188)--(1.6912,3.6850)--(1.5785,3.5417)--(1.5221,3.4506)--(1.4725,3.3646)--(1.3690,3.1875)--(1.3529,3.1579)--(1.2672,3.0104)--(1.1848,2.8333)--(1.1838,2.8306)--(1.1125,2.6562)--(1.0740,2.4792)--(1.1266,2.3021)--(1.1838,2.2514)--(1.3529,2.1896)--(1.5221,2.1565)--(1.6912,2.1343)--(1.7852,2.1250)--(1.8603,2.1147)--(2.0294,2.0964)--(2.1985,2.0664)--(2.3676,2.0507)--(2.5368,2.0723)--(2.7059,2.1099)--(2.7643,2.1250)--(2.8750,2.1503)--(3.0441,2.1963)--(3.2132,2.2796)--(3.2511,2.3021)--(3.3824,2.3798)--(3.5030,2.4792)--(3.5515,2.5315)--(3.6423,2.6562)--(3.7206,2.8317)--(3.7213,2.8333)--(3.7516,3.0104)--(3.7288,3.1875)--(3.7206,3.2196)--(3.6869,3.3646)--(3.6306,3.5417)--(3.5515,3.6633)--(3.5156,3.7188)--(3.3987,3.8958)--(3.3824,3.9368)--(3.3345,4.0729)--(3.2696,4.2500)--(3.2132,4.3083)--(3.0441,4.3883)--(2.8750,4.3764)--(2.7059,4.3352)--(2.5368,4.2743);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.5368,4.4547)--(2.4725,4.4271)--(2.3676,4.3879)--(2.1985,4.3015)--(2.1165,4.2500)--(2.0294,4.2015)--(1.8603,4.0885)--(1.8406,4.0729)--(1.7788,4.0242);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (1.3281,3.4780)--(1.2783,3.3646)--(1.1980,3.1875)--(1.1838,3.1587)--(1.1071,3.0104)--(1.0257,2.8333)--(1.0147,2.8051)--(0.9485,2.6562)--(0.8917,2.4792)--(0.8682,2.3021)--(0.9269,2.1250)--(1.0147,2.0319)--(1.1838,1.9554)--(1.2186,1.9479)--(1.3529,1.9140)--(1.5221,1.8764)--(1.6912,1.8456)--(1.8603,1.8229)--(2.0294,1.8057)--(2.1985,1.7826)--(2.3676,1.7728)--(2.5368,1.7933)--(2.7059,1.8245)--(2.8750,1.8621)--(3.0441,1.9025)--(3.1458,1.9479)--(3.2132,1.9758)--(3.3824,2.0626)--(3.4775,2.1250)--(3.5515,2.1739)--(3.6927,2.3021)--(3.7206,2.3319)--(3.8351,2.4792)--(3.8897,2.5763)--(3.9328,2.6562)--(3.9867,2.8333)--(3.9968,3.0104)--(3.9718,3.1875)--(3.9313,3.3646)--(3.8897,3.5061)--(3.8802,3.5417)--(3.7725,3.7188)--(3.7206,3.8018)--(3.6622,3.8958)--(3.5834,4.0729)--(3.5515,4.2196)--(3.5455,4.2500)--(3.4632,4.4271)--(3.3824,4.4848)--(3.2132,4.5582)--(3.0441,4.5832)--(2.8750,4.5574)--(2.7059,4.5134)--(2.5368,4.4547);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.8750,4.8131)--(2.7554,4.7812)--(2.7059,4.7707)--(2.5368,4.7229)--(2.3676,4.6550)--(2.2604,4.6042)--(2.1985,4.5802)--(2.0294,4.5070)--(1.8817,4.4271)--(1.8603,4.4146)--(1.6912,4.2906)--(1.6458,4.2500)--(1.5221,4.1393)--(1.4608,4.0729)--(1.3529,3.9602)--(1.3035,3.8958)--(1.1838,3.7321)--(1.1740,3.7188)--(1.0661,3.5417)--(1.0183,3.3646)--(1.0147,3.3535)--(0.9576,3.1875)--(0.8924,3.0104)--(0.8456,2.8939)--(0.8176,2.8333)--(0.7396,2.6562)--(0.6784,2.4792)--(0.6765,2.4710)--(0.6243,2.3021)--(0.5998,2.1250)--(0.6364,1.9479)--(0.6765,1.8661)--(0.7405,1.7708)--(0.8456,1.6736)--(0.9857,1.5938)--(1.0147,1.5763)--(1.1838,1.5153)--(1.3529,1.4735)--(1.5221,1.4461)--(1.6912,1.4245)--(1.7629,1.4167)--(1.8603,1.4045)--(2.0294,1.3883)--(2.1985,1.3749)--(2.3676,1.3800)--(2.5368,1.4141)--(2.5479,1.4167)--(2.7059,1.4485)--(2.8750,1.4863)--(3.0441,1.5229)--(3.2132,1.5863)--(3.2302,1.5938)--(3.3824,1.6610)--(3.5515,1.7528)--(3.5785,1.7708)--(3.7206,1.8775)--(3.7945,1.9479)--(3.8897,2.0405)--(3.9685,2.1250)--(4.0588,2.2344)--(4.1148,2.3021)--(4.2207,2.4792)--(4.2279,2.4966)--(4.3056,2.6562)--(4.3457,2.8333)--(4.3417,3.0104)--(4.3122,3.1875)--(4.2682,3.3646)--(4.2279,3.5015)--(4.2184,3.5417)--(4.0963,3.7188)--(4.0588,3.7812)--(3.9952,3.8958)--(3.9153,4.0729)--(3.8897,4.1463)--(3.8589,4.2500)--(3.8390,4.4271)--(3.7299,4.6042)--(3.7206,4.6102)--(3.5515,4.6939)--(3.3824,4.7610)--(3.3156,4.7812)--(3.2132,4.8202)--(3.0441,4.8461)--(2.8750,4.8131);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (2.5368,5.1422)--(2.5090,5.1354)--(2.3676,5.1023)--(2.1985,5.0506)--(2.0294,4.9845)--(1.9731,4.9583)--(1.8603,4.9030)--(1.6912,4.8014)--(1.6619,4.7812)--(1.5221,4.6898)--(1.4155,4.6042)--(1.3529,4.5516)--(1.2554,4.4271)--(1.1838,4.3140)--(1.1463,4.2500)--(1.0416,4.0729)--(1.0147,4.0341)--(0.9169,3.8958)--(0.8456,3.7966)--(0.7856,3.7188)--(0.6765,3.5460)--(0.6733,3.5417)--(0.6190,3.3646)--(0.5697,3.1875)--(0.5280,3.0104)--(0.5074,2.9466)--(0.4590,2.8333)--(0.3770,2.6562)--(0.3382,2.5638)--(0.2913,2.4792)--(0.2260,2.3021)--(0.1769,2.1250)--(0.1691,2.0911)--(0.1133,1.9479)--(0.0604,1.7708)--(0.1678,1.5938)--(0.1691,1.5918)--(0.2670,1.4167)--(0.3382,1.2980)--(0.3729,1.2396)--(0.5074,1.0816)--(0.5286,1.0625)--(0.6765,0.9503)--(0.7765,0.8854)--(0.8456,0.8440)--(1.0147,0.7441)--(1.0727,0.7083)--(1.1838,0.6528)--(1.3529,0.5874)--(1.5221,0.5879)--(1.6912,0.6104)--(1.8603,0.6478)--(2.0294,0.6931)--(2.0708,0.7083)--(2.1985,0.7556)--(2.3676,0.8372)--(2.4713,0.8854)--(2.5368,0.9131)--(2.7059,0.9789)--(2.8750,1.0455)--(2.9286,1.0625)--(3.0441,1.0938)--(3.2132,1.1449)--(3.3824,1.2080)--(3.4567,1.2396)--(3.5515,1.2729)--(3.7206,1.3416)--(3.7365,1.3499);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (4.3505,1.9522)--(4.3971,2.0084)--(4.4931,2.1250)--(4.5662,2.1943)--(4.6816,2.3021)--(4.7353,2.3666)--(4.8267,2.4792)--(4.8785,2.6562)--(4.8820,2.8333)--(4.8630,3.0104)--(4.8339,3.1875)--(4.8042,3.3646)--(4.7723,3.5417)--(4.7353,3.5952)--(4.6212,3.7188)--(4.5662,3.7869)--(4.4826,3.8958)--(4.3971,4.0353)--(4.3771,4.0729)--(4.2855,4.2500)--(4.2465,4.4271)--(4.2279,4.5748)--(4.2242,4.6042)--(4.1011,4.7812)--(4.0588,4.8110)--(3.8897,4.9145)--(3.8078,4.9583)--(3.7206,5.0058)--(3.5515,5.0804)--(3.4007,5.1354)--(3.3824,5.1449)--(3.2132,5.2073)--(3.0441,5.2399)--(2.8750,5.2092)--(2.7059,5.1777)--(2.5368,5.1422);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (1.9648,0.0000)--(2.0294,0.0196)--(2.1985,0.0711)--(2.3676,0.1208)--(2.5368,0.1592)--(2.6346,0.1771)--(2.7059,0.1893)--(2.8750,0.2170)--(3.0441,0.2461)--(3.2132,0.2953)--(3.3824,0.3534)--(3.3842,0.3542)--(3.5515,0.4130)--(3.7206,0.4892)--(3.8009,0.5312)--(3.8897,0.5684)--(4.0588,0.6495)--(4.1614,0.7083)--(4.2279,0.7539)--(4.3827,0.8854)--(4.3971,0.8946)--(4.5662,1.0378)--(4.5893,1.0625)--(4.7353,1.2045)--(4.7645,1.2396)--(4.8625,1.4167)--(4.9044,1.4988)--(4.9514,1.5938)--(5.0119,1.7708)--(5.0723,1.9479)--(5.0735,1.9508)--(5.1490,2.1250)--(5.2426,2.2612)--(5.2667,2.3021)--(5.3799,2.4792)--(5.4118,2.5648)--(5.4465,2.6562)--(5.4597,2.8333)--(5.4443,3.0104)--(5.4170,3.1875)--(5.4118,3.2169)--(5.3822,3.3646)--(5.3449,3.5417)--(5.2426,3.7038)--(5.2320,3.7188)--(5.1174,3.8958)--(5.0735,3.9678)--(5.0104,4.0729)--(4.9123,4.2500)--(4.9044,4.2640)--(4.8215,4.4271)--(4.7667,4.6042)--(4.7353,4.7374)--(4.7256,4.7812)--(4.6350,4.9583)--(4.5662,5.0179)--(4.4219,5.1354)--(4.3971,5.1607)--(4.2370,5.3125)--(4.2279,5.3259)--(4.1056,5.4896)--(4.0588,5.5469)--(3.9408,5.6667)--(3.8897,5.7176)--(3.7396,5.8438)--(3.7206,5.8582)--(3.5515,5.9734)--(3.4752,6.0208)--(3.3824,6.0745)--(3.2132,6.1496)--(3.0441,6.1961)--(2.8750,6.1524)--(2.7059,6.1022)--(2.5368,6.0474)--(2.4602,6.0208)--(2.3676,5.9839)--(2.1985,5.9084)--(2.0739,5.8438)--(2.0294,5.8166)--(1.8603,5.6953)--(1.8277,5.6667)--(1.6912,5.5666)--(1.6030,5.4896)--(1.5221,5.4413)--(1.3529,5.3275)--(1.3370,5.3125)--(1.1838,5.1928)--(1.1217,5.1354)--(1.0147,5.0016)--(0.9833,4.9583)--(0.8722,4.7812)--(0.8456,4.7371)--(0.7654,4.6042)--(0.6765,4.4458)--(0.6651,4.4271)--(0.5680,4.2500)--(0.5074,4.1469)--(0.4537,4.0729)--(0.3382,3.9456)--(0.2792,3.8958)--(0.1691,3.8118)--(0.0273,3.7188)--(0.0000,3.6977);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (6.2873,0.0000)--(6.2667,0.1771)--(6.2574,0.2714)--(6.2498,0.3542)--(6.2356,0.5312)--(6.2236,0.7083)--(6.2133,0.8854)--(6.2043,1.0625)--(6.1964,1.2396)--(6.1895,1.4167)--(6.1832,1.5938)--(6.1777,1.7708)--(6.1728,1.8656);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (6.1379,2.7388)--(6.1352,2.8333)--(6.1305,3.0104)--(6.1260,3.1875)--(6.1217,3.3646)--(6.1177,3.5417)--(6.0882,3.6419)--(6.0654,3.7188)--(6.0096,3.8958)--(5.9490,4.0729)--(5.9191,4.1555)--(5.8845,4.2500)--(5.8157,4.4271)--(5.7500,4.5857)--(5.7423,4.6042)--(5.6668,4.7812)--(5.5832,4.9583)--(5.5809,4.9627)--(5.4873,5.1354)--(5.4118,5.2510)--(5.3661,5.3125)--(5.2810,5.4896)--(5.2426,5.5700)--(5.2012,5.6667)--(5.1278,5.8438)--(5.0735,5.9689)--(5.0509,6.0208)--(4.9674,6.1979)--(4.9044,6.3097)--(4.8670,6.3750)--(4.7492,6.5521)--(4.7353,6.5704)--(4.5662,6.7170)--(4.5524,6.7292)--(4.3971,6.8406)--(4.3003,6.9062)--(4.2279,6.9503)--(4.0588,7.0398)--(3.9656,7.0833)--(3.8897,7.1330)--(3.7206,7.2239)--(3.6445,7.2604)--(3.5515,7.3149)--(3.3824,7.3931)--(3.2685,7.4375)--(3.2132,7.4691)--(3.0441,7.5562)--(2.8750,7.5204)--(2.7059,7.4856)--(2.5368,7.4502)--(2.4795,7.4375)--(2.3676,7.4176)--(2.1985,7.3864)--(2.0294,7.3544)--(1.8603,7.3205)--(1.6912,7.2832)--(1.5967,7.2604)--(1.5221,7.2417)--(1.3529,7.1950)--(1.1838,7.1060)--(1.1427,7.0833)--(1.0147,7.0306)--(0.8456,6.9553)--(0.7417,6.9062)--(0.6765,6.8687)--(0.5074,6.7713)--(0.4343,6.7292)--(0.3382,6.6560)--(0.1966,6.5521)--(0.1691,6.5269)--(0.0000,6.3855);
+\draw[black!45,thin] (11.5000,4.1336)--(11.3309,4.1802)--(11.1618,4.2273)--(11.0811,4.2500)--(10.9926,4.2750)--(10.8235,4.3231)--(10.6544,4.3717)--(10.4853,4.4208)--(10.4639,4.4271)--(10.3162,4.4705)--(10.1471,4.5207)--(9.9779,4.5714)--(9.8698,4.6042)--(9.8088,4.6227)--(9.6397,4.6860)--(9.4706,4.7510)--(9.3933,4.7812)--(9.3015,4.8177)--(9.1324,4.8862)--(8.9632,4.9565)--(8.9588,4.9583)--(8.7941,5.0288)--(8.6250,5.1030)--(8.5527,5.1354)--(8.4559,5.1795)--(8.2868,5.2580)--(8.1723,5.3125)--(8.1176,5.3357)--(7.9748,5.4896)--(7.9485,5.5194)--(7.8248,5.6667)--(7.7794,5.7237)--(7.6882,5.8438)--(7.6103,5.9523)--(7.5632,6.0208)--(7.4485,6.1979)--(7.4412,6.2097)--(7.3428,6.3750)--(7.2721,6.5017)--(7.2450,6.5521)--(7.1545,6.7292)--(7.1029,6.8359)--(7.0702,6.9062)--(6.9917,7.0833)--(6.9338,7.2526)--(6.9311,7.2604)--(6.8675,7.4375)--(6.8007,7.6146)--(6.7647,7.7065)--(6.7305,7.7917)--(6.6566,7.9688)--(6.5956,8.1080)--(6.5786,8.1458)--(6.4963,8.3229)--(6.4265,8.4658)--(6.4131,8.5000);
+\draw[black!70,thin] (-0.2800,-0.0134)--(-0.1102,0.1850)--(-0.0356,0.6247)--(0.3375,0.6663)--(0.2285,0.1894)--(0.7292,0.8732)--(0.6646,0.1975)--(0.4216,-0.0354)--(0.2097,-0.4829)--(-0.0028,-0.6926)--(-0.4194,-0.2030)--(-0.2800,-0.0134);
+\draw[black!70,thin] (-0.4485,5.8260)--(-0.5586,5.5323)--(-0.3276,5.0246)--(-0.5058,4.4359)--(-0.9046,4.2011)--(-1.0113,3.6301)--(-0.8599,3.0659)--(-0.5013,2.9879)--(-0.2021,3.0717)--(0.6428,2.6790)--(0.5785,2.2934)--(0.7991,2.1232)--(0.7288,1.7968)--(0.2016,2.1445)--(-0.0483,2.5167)--(-0.2223,2.2566)--(-0.6530,2.6807)--(-1.2674,2.5760)--(-1.6042,2.7325)--(-1.5698,3.0253)--(-1.3585,3.2055)--(-1.5604,3.3693)--(-1.6478,3.1140)--(-1.9818,3.5210)--(-2.0829,3.8295)--(-2.1080,4.5076)--(-1.8356,4.2745)--(-1.7656,5.3827)--(-1.5451,6.0245)--(-1.1356,6.0237)--(-0.7187,5.8215)--(-0.5101,6.0059)--(-0.4485,5.8260);
+\draw[black!70,thin] (-0.6505,1.0029)--(-0.7552,1.3400)--(-0.3492,1.1207)--(0.0813,1.1218)--(0.0682,0.8259)--(-0.2451,0.5251)--(-0.6747,0.3124)--(-0.6985,0.6415)--(-0.6505,1.0029);
+\draw[black!70,thin] (1.6929,1.5319)--(1.8829,0.7410)--(1.3610,0.9289)--(1.3751,0.6912)--(1.5406,0.2541)--(1.2189,0.0954)--(1.1907,0.5936)--(0.9870,0.6304)--(0.8811,1.0592)--(1.2792,1.0027)--(1.2704,1.2709)--(0.8569,1.8117)--(1.5066,1.7961)--(1.6929,1.5319);
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (2.5368,3.0009) {960};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (1.8603,3.1254) {968};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (2.5368,3.8582) {976};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (3.1362,2.4792) {984};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (1.5221,3.7762) {992};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (4.0998,1.5938) {1000};
+\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at (6.1526,2.3021) {1008};
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (10.1471,0.9917)--(9.2000,1.2042)--(8.3882,1.4167)--(7.4412,1.5583)--(6.1559,1.7708)--(5.0735,2.0542)--(3.5176,2.3375)--(2.3676,2.6208)--(1.2176,2.9750);
+\fill[ink] (1.2176,2.9750) circle (2pt);
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (10.1471,0.9917)--(9.6537,1.3534)--(8.9229,1.6990)--(8.0238,2.0357)--(6.9642,2.2886)--(5.8480,2.5346)--(4.6750,2.7937)--(3.5373,2.9962)--(2.3807,3.2328);
+\fill[routepink] (2.3807,3.2328) circle (2pt);
+\end{scope}
+\draw[ink,dashed,thick] (0.250,-1.23)--(0.800,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (0.900,-1.23) {Observed route to +48 h};
+\draw[routepink,solid,thick] (6.000,-1.23)--(6.550,-1.23);
+\node[anchor=west] at (6.650,-1.23) {Forecast route to +48 h};
+\end{tikzpicture}
+\caption{Unmodified saved physical ensemble-mean regional MSLP at +48 h
+(9 November 2025, 00 UTC), contoured every 4 hPa and labelled every 8 hPa.
+The source grid is sampled at $0.25^\circ$; this is not a claim of native
+resolution. Lines overlay the observed and forecast paths only through this
+valid time. The figure uses the portion inside the fixed regional patch;
+its western edge is $123^\circ$E. The map has not been shifted to match the
+observed centre, and its minimum need not equal member-mean central pressure.}
+\label{fig:pressuremap}
+\end{figure}
+
+\clearpage
+\subsection{Pressure and coverage limitations}
+Observed pressure is JMA best track as stored in IBTrACS \texttt{TOKYO\_PRES},
+not a JMA forecast. Native-detail input history was unavailable for this issue;
+the regional pressure field is a learned basin-plus-core reconstruction
+sampled every $0.25^\circ$, not a native-resolution forecast. Coverage masks
+and fixed regional boundaries must be retained. From +66 h the forecast
+centre leaves the fixed regional patch; the video then shows only the saved
+coarse basin field at that location. The moving-core readout still supplies
+central pressure; no detailed map core is invented outside coverage.
+The mean route and mean
+central pressure need not be the minimum of the common-grid mean field.
+
+No verified same-270 1.1 pressure-prediction array is available in the route
+artifacts, so a pressure-comparison bar is not invented. On the separate,
+repeatedly inspected TIP ten-start diagnostic, central-pressure MAE is worse
+for 1.2 (30.7 versus 20.1 hPa). Overlapping issues of one storm are not ten
+independent tests. The route improvement cannot be read as an all-metric win.
+
+\section{Reproducibility and limitations}
+The figures above embed numeric values from the published saved artifacts,
+so this source compiles without external images. Model code, checkpoint
+provenance, plot data, selection rules and reproduction utilities are available
+in the release repository\footnote{\url{https://github.com/yu314-coder/typhoon-predict}}.
+The 270-case scores are in \path{evaluation/trackformer_1_2_vs_1_1_270_metrics.json};
+Fung-wong coordinates, pressure, source hashes and member policy are in
+\path{evaluation/release_data/fung_wong_video.npz} and its JSON manifest.
+The \href{https://yu314-coder.github.io/typhoon-predict/trackformer_1_2_fung_wong.mp4}{Fung-wong MP4}
+is an illustration of saved predictions, not a new inference experiment.
+
+A separate expanded protocol freezes 1,473 daily issues from 270 distinct
+storms: average leads within each issue, issues within each storm, then storms
+equally. It is not the completed 270-case comparison reported here; its
+partial results are not used in these figures. Stronger generalization claims
+require a genuinely unused whole-storm holdout, fitting-only preprocessing,
+matched data availability and lead masks, and uncertainty estimates based on
+resampling whole storms rather than overlapping issues.
+
+\section{Conclusion}
+Trackformer 1.2 couples recurrent environmental evolution with a translating
+pressure anomaly and pressure-associated readout. Development results improve
+aggregate route measures relative to the archived 1.1 pipeline, while leaving
+large absolute errors, short-lead regressions and intensity failures. The
+architecture is a research model, not a substitute for official warnings;
+selected visually aligned routes do not establish operational reliability.
 \end{document}

release_tools/build_paper_figures.py

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+"""Emit an apply_patch patch for self-contained TikZ paper figures.
+
+Reads only published evaluation arrays. No inference or external image files.
+Plain TikZ avoids a separate pgfplots dependency in local PDF exporters.
+"""
+from pathlib import Path
+import difflib
+import json
+import re
+import numpy as np
+import matplotlib
+matplotlib.use('Agg')
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+
+ROOT=Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+
+def axes(xlim,ylim,xticks,yticks,width,height,title,xlabel,ylabel):
+    def xy(x,y):return ((x-xlim[0])/(xlim[1]-xlim[0])*width,(y-ylim[0])/(ylim[1]-ylim[0])*height)
+    lines=[r'\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]',
+        rf'\node[font=\small\bfseries,align=center] at ({width/2:.3f},{height+.4:.3f}) {{{title}}};']
+    for x in xticks:
+        u,_=xy(x,ylim[0]);lines.extend([rf'\draw[black!10] ({u:.3f},0)--({u:.3f},{height});',rf'\node[below=3pt] at ({u:.3f},0) {{{x:g}}};'])
+    for y in yticks:
+        _,v=xy(xlim[0],y);lines.extend([rf'\draw[black!10] (0,{v:.3f})--({width},{v:.3f});',rf'\node[left=3pt] at (0,{v:.3f}) {{{y:g}}};'])
+    lines.extend([rf'\draw[black!55] (0,{height})--(0,0)--({width},0);',
+        rf'\node[font=\small] at ({width/2:.3f},-.72) {{{xlabel}}};',
+        rf'\node[font=\small,rotate=90] at (-1.05,{height/2:.3f}) {{{ylabel}}};'])
+    return lines,xy
+
+def polyline(points,xy,style):
+    return r'\draw['+style+'] '+'--'.join(f'({xy(x,y)[0]:.4f},{xy(x,y)[1]:.4f})' for x,y in points)+';'
+
+def legend(lines,width,items):
+    for i,(color,style,label) in enumerate(items):
+        x=.25+i*width/len(items)
+        lines.extend([rf'\draw[{color},{style},thick] ({x:.3f},-1.23)--({x+.55:.3f},-1.23);',
+            rf'\node[anchor=west] at ({x+.65:.3f},-1.23) {{{label}}};'])
+
+def curves(x,y1,y2,xlim,ylim,xticks,yticks,width,height,title,xlabel,ylabel,labels,colors=('ink','routepink'),markers=False):
+    lines,xy=axes(xlim,ylim,xticks,yticks,width,height,title,xlabel,ylabel)
+    lines.extend([r'\begin{scope}',rf'\clip (0,0) rectangle ({width},{height});'])
+    for xx,yy,color,style in [(x[0],y1,colors[0],'dashed'),(x[1],y2,colors[1],'solid')]:
+        points=list(zip(xx,yy));lines.append(polyline(points,xy,color+','+style+',thick'))
+        if markers:
+            for a,b in points:
+                u,v=xy(a,b);lines.append(rf'\fill[{color}] ({u:.4f},{v:.4f}) circle (1pt);')
+    lines.append(r'\end{scope}')
+    legend(lines,width,list(zip(colors,['dashed','solid'],labels)))
+    lines.append(r'\end{tikzpicture}')
+    return '\n'.join(lines)
+
+def generate():
+    m=json.loads((ROOT/'evaluation/trackformer_1_2_vs_1_1_270_metrics.json').read_text())['metrics']
+    with np.load(ROOT/'evaluation/release_data/fung_wong_video.npz') as z:a={k:z[k] for k in z.files}
+    lead=np.arange(6,121,6)
+    bars=[r'\begin{tikzpicture}[x=1cm,y=1cm,font=\scriptsize]']
+    for offset,title,values,top,ticks,unit in [(0,'Mean position error',[902.3,714.4],1100,[0,500,1000],'km; lower is better'),(7.2,'Six-hour heading error',[56.22,44.82],70,[0,20,40,60],'degrees; lower is better')]:
+        bars.append(rf'\begin{{scope}}[shift={{({offset},0)}}]')
+        bars.append(rf'\node[font=\small\bfseries] at (2.5,4.05) {{{title}}};')
+        bars.append(rf'\node[rotate=90] at (-.75,1.75) {{{unit}}};')
+        for tick in ticks:
+            h=tick/top*3.5;bars.extend([rf'\draw[black!10] (0,{h:.4f})--(5,{h:.4f});',rf'\node[left] at (0,{h:.4f}) {{{tick}}};'])
+        for x,value,color,label in [(1.4,values[0],'baselinegray','1.1'),(3.6,values[1],'modelteal','1.2 mean of 50')]:
+            h=value/top*3.5;bars.extend([rf'\fill[{color}] ({x-.38},{0}) rectangle ({x+.38},{h:.4f});',rf'\node[above] at ({x},{h:.4f}) {{{value:g}}};',rf'\node[below=3pt] at ({x},0) {{{label}}};'])
+        bars.extend([r'\draw[black!55] (0,3.5)--(0,0)--(5,0);',r'\end{scope}'])
+    bars.append(r'\end{tikzpicture}')
+    benchmark='\n'.join(bars)+r'\par\vspace{7mm}'+'\n'+curves([lead,lead],m['1.1']['track_error_by_lead_km'],m['1.2']['track_error_by_lead_km'],(6,120),(0,2000),[6,24,48,72,96,120],[0,500,1000,1500,2000],12.2,3.7,'Error growth across forecast lead','Forecast lead (hours)','Mean position error (km)',['Trackformer 1.1','Trackformer 1.2: mean of 50'],('baselinegray','modelteal'))
+    f,o=a['forecast_lat_lon'],a['observed_lat_lon']
+    case=curves([o[:,1],f[:,1]],o[:,0],f[:,0],(116,140),(9,23),[116,120,124,128,132,136,140],[10,14,18,22],12.2,7.4,'Fung-wong: geographic routes, +0 to +120 h',r'Longitude ($^\circ$E)',r'Latitude ($^\circ$N)',['Observed best track','1.2 mean of 50'],markers=True)
+    case+=r'\par\vspace{5mm}'+'\n'+curves([lead,lead],a['observed_pressure_hpa'],a['central_pressure_hpa'],(6,120),(925,1005),[6,24,48,72,96,120],[940,960,980,1000],12.2,3.8,'Central pressure: intensification and weakening','Forecast lead (hours)','Central pressure (hPa)',['JMA best track (IBTrACS)','1.2 member-mean pressure'])
+    lat,lon,field=a['latitude'],a['longitude'],a['regional_pressure_hpa'][7]
+    ys=(lat>=10)&(lat<=22);xs=(lon>=123)&(lon<=140)
+    fig,ax=plt.subplots();cs=ax.contour(lon[xs],lat[ys],field[np.ix_(ys,xs)],levels=np.arange(944,1017,4));labels=ax.clabel(cs,levels=np.arange(944,1017,8),fmt='%d',fontsize=8)
+    lines,xy=axes((123,140),(10,22),[124,128,132,136,140],[10,14,18,22],11.5,8.5,'Fung-wong: model-mean MSLP at +48 h',r'Longitude ($^\circ$E)',r'Latitude ($^\circ$N)')
+    lines.extend([r'\begin{scope}',r'\clip (0,0) rectangle (11.5,8.5);'])
+    for level,segs in zip(cs.levels,cs.allsegs):
+        for seg in segs:
+            if len(seg)>=2:lines.append(polyline(seg,xy,'black!45,thin'))
+    for ring in json.loads((ROOT/'evaluation/release_data/fung_wong_coastlines.json').read_text()):
+        p=np.array(ring)
+        if np.any((p[:,0]>=123)&(p[:,0]<=140)&(p[:,1]>=10)&(p[:,1]<=22)):lines.append(polyline(p,xy,'black!70,thin'))
+    for t in labels:
+        u,v=xy(*t.get_position());lines.append(rf'\node[font=\tiny,fill=white,inner sep=.5pt,text=black!70] at ({u:.4f},{v:.4f}) {{{t.get_text()}}};')
+    for points,color,style in [(o[:9],'ink','dashed'),(f[:9],'routepink','solid')]:
+        lines.append(polyline(points[:,::-1],xy,color+','+style+',thick'))
+        u,v=xy(points[-1,1],points[-1,0]);lines.append(rf'\fill[{color}] ({u:.4f},{v:.4f}) circle (2pt);')
+    lines.append(r'\end{scope}');legend(lines,11.5,[('ink','dashed','Observed route to +48 h'),('routepink','solid','Forecast route to +48 h')]);lines.append(r'\end{tikzpicture}');plt.close(fig)
+    return {'fig:benchmark':benchmark,'fig:fungwong':case,'fig:pressuremap':'\n'.join(lines)}
+
+def main():
+    path=ROOT/'paper/trackformer.tex';old=path.read_text();new=old.replace('tikz,pgfplots,caption','tikz,caption')
+    new=new.replace('\\pgfplotsset{compat=1.18}\n','')
+    new=re.sub(r'\\pgfplotsset\{paperaxis/\.style=.*?scaled ticks=false\}\}\n','',new,flags=re.S)
+    figures=generate()
+    def replace(match):
+        text=match.group()
+        for label,picture in figures.items():
+            if '\\label{'+label+'}' in text:
+                return '\\begin{figure}[htbp]\n\\centering\n'+picture+'\n'+text[text.index('\\caption'):]
+        return text
+    new=re.sub(r'\\begin\{figure\}.*?\\end\{figure\}',replace,new,flags=re.S)
+    print('*** Begin Patch\n*** Update File: '+str(path))
+    for line in list(difflib.unified_diff(old.splitlines(),new.splitlines(),n=3))[2:]:print('@@' if line.startswith('@@') else line)
+    print('*** End Patch')
+
+if __name__=='__main__':main()