ReDef: Do Code Language Models Truly Understand Code Changes for Just-in-Time Software Defect Prediction?

Just-in-Time software defect prediction (JIT-SDP) plays a critical role in prioritizing risky code changes during code review and continuous integration. However, existing datasets often suffer from noisy labels and low precision in identifying bug-inducing commits. To address this, we present ReDef (Revert-based Defect dataset), a high-confidence benchmark of function-level modifications curated from 22 large-scale C/C++ projects. Defective cases are anchored by revert commits, while clean cases are validated through post-hoc history checks. Ambiguous instances are conservatively filtered out via a GPT-assisted triage process involving multiple votes and audits. This pipeline yields 3,164 defective and 10,268 clean modifications, offering substantially more reliable labels than prior resources. Beyond dataset construction, we provide a systematic evaluation of how Code Language Models (CLMs)-specifically CodeBERT, CodeT5+, UniXcoder, and Qwen2.5-reason about code modifications. We first investigate which input encodings most effectively expose change information under five different strategies. We then design four counterfactual perturbation strategies (e.g., swapping added/deleted blocks, inverting diff polarity) to serve as diagnostic probes. We posit that if models genuinely capture change semantics, such distortions should lead to a clear decline in predictive performance. Our results show that compact diff-style encodings consistently outperform whole-function formats across all CLMs, supported by rigorous statistical confirmation. However, under counterfactual tests, performance remains effectively stable, revealing that what appears to be robustness in fact reflects a reliance on superficial cues rather than true semantic understanding.