Static PTX Metrics Track Structural Kernel Regressions but Miss Semantic Ones

We pair each GPU kernel's static PTX metrics (registers, spills, instruction count) with CUDA-event-timed runtime on five GPU classes: RTX 3060, A10, L40S, A100 SXM4, and H100 NVL. In this corpus and toolchain the static and measured signals separate cleanly along one axis. Per-pair Delta-regs and Delta-instrs are identical across all five GPUs for any given (correct, buggy) pair. Measured Delta-perf% is not. Structural bugs that change the kernel's work are unambiguous in the static signal. The gelu_triton_buggy variant, which drops a leading 0.5 factor, removes 8 instructions and 8 registers. The corresponding measured Delta-perf% on RTX 3060 is +3.2%, within the run-to-run noise band at the sub-millisecond scale these corpus kernels occupy. Semantic bugs that swap one constant for another are invisible to the static signal. The softmax_triton_buggy variant, which substitutes other=0.0 for -inf on the masked load, compiles to byte-identical PTX. The paper's bounded claim is that, for this corpus and toolchain, a static-PTX delta gate is a portable pre-filter that separates structural from semantic changes; measured runtime deltas at this scale are hardware- and noise-sensitive and are not a substitute.