Daily Papers

AI weather forecasting models are commonly trained on the ERA5 reanalysis, which is unavailable in real time. Operational deployment therefore relies on initial conditions produced by numerical or AI analysis systems that differ from those encountered during training. This mismatch can degrade forecast skill, while retraining for every analysis system is costly. Here, we present Domain-Adaptive Data Assimilation (DADA), an observation-guided framework that adapts external analyses to pretrained AI weather models. Starting from a background state, DADA optimizes only an initial-state perturbation while keeping the forecast model frozen. The perturbed state is propagated through the model, and its short-range trajectory is constrained by real-world observations through a learned observation operator. The resulting initial condition is shaped jointly by observational constraints and the dynamics learned by the target model. We evaluate DADA across five global AI weather models using backgrounds from the Global Forecast System and the AI-based HealDA. Across deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, DADA substantially reduces short-range skill loss caused by changes in the initial-condition source. More broadly, DADA turns observations into a common interface between independently developed analysis and forecasting systems, enabling pretrained AI weather models to accommodate evolving operational initial conditions without reconstructing ERA5 or retraining the forecast model.

Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, rely on Gaussian approximations that are violated for complex dynamics or observation operators. To address this limitation, we introduce DAISI, a scalable filtering algorithm built on flow-based generative models that enables flexible probabilistic inference using data-driven priors. The core idea is to use a stationary, pre-trained generative prior that first incorporates forecast information through a novel inverse-sampling step, before assimilating observations via guidance-based conditional sampling. This allows us to leverage any forecasting model as part of the DA pipeline without having to retrain or fine-tune the generative prior at each assimilation step. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAISI achieves accurate filtering results in regimes with sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations where traditional methods struggle. The code for DAISI is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAISI.

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on frame-to-frame transition models. However, these models are fragile when observations are non-Markovian (when they form only a partial slice of a higher-dimensional latent state as in real-world weather data): they tend to accumulate errors over long horizons. At the same time, learned DA methods typically commit to a single regime, either filtering (nowcasting, real-time forecasting) or smoothing (retrospective reanalysis), which splits what should be a shared prior across application-specific pipelines. To address both issues, we introduce ForcingDAS, a unified and robust DA framework. Built on Diffusion Forcing with an independent noise level assigned to each frame, ForcingDAS learns a joint-trajectory prior instead of frame-to-frame transitions. This allows it to capture long-horizon temporal dependencies and reduce error accumulation. In addition, the same trained model spans the full filtering to smoothing spectrum at inference time. Specifically, nowcasting, fixed-lag smoothing, and batch reanalysis are selected through the inference schedule alone, without retraining. We evaluate ForcingDAS on 2D Navier-Stokes vorticity, precipitation nowcasting, and global atmospheric state estimation. Across all settings, a single model is competitive with or outperforms both learned and classical baselines that are specialized for individual regimes, with the largest gains observed on real-world weather benchmarks.

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

Learning domain adaptive policies that can generalize to unseen transition dynamics, remains a fundamental challenge in learning-based control. Substantial progress has been made through domain representation learning to capture domain-specific information, thus enabling domain-aware decision making. We analyze the process of learning domain representations through dynamical prediction and find that selecting contexts adjacent to the current step causes the learned representations to entangle static domain information with varying dynamical properties. Such mixture can confuse the conditioned policy, thereby constraining zero-shot adaptation. To tackle the challenge, we propose DADP (Domain Adaptive Diffusion Policy), which achieves robust adaptation through unsupervised disentanglement and domain-aware diffusion injection. First, we introduce Lagged Context Dynamical Prediction, a strategy that conditions future state estimation on a historical offset context; by increasing this temporal gap, we unsupervisedly disentangle static domain representations by filtering out transient properties. Second, we integrate the learned domain representations directly into the generative process by biasing the prior distribution and reformulating the diffusion target. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks across locomotion and manipulation demonstrate the superior performance, and the generalizability of DADP over prior methods. More visualization results are available on the https://outsider86.github.io/DomainAdaptiveDiffusionPolicy/.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models have shown great potential for DA tasks, most existing approaches remain purely data-driven and often overlook the physical laws that govern complex atmospheric dynamics. As a result, they may yield physically inconsistent reconstructions that impair downstream applications. To overcome this limitation, we propose PhyDA, a physics-guided diffusion framework designed to ensure physical coherence in atmospheric data assimilation. PhyDA introduces two key components: (1) a Physically Regularized Diffusion Objective that integrates physical constraints into the training process by penalizing deviations from known physical laws expressed as partial differential equations, and (2) a Virtual Reconstruction Encoder that bridges observational sparsity for structured latent representations, further enhancing the model's ability to infer complete and physically coherent states. Experiments on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset demonstrate that PhyDA achieves superior accuracy and better physical plausibility compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our results emphasize the importance of combining generative modeling with domain-specific physical knowledge and show that PhyDA offers a promising direction for improving real-world data assimilation systems.

Deep generative networks have recently achieved unprecedented performance in precise image and video editing using sophisticated textual prompts. However, the effectiveness of such models heavily depends on access to very large supervised and annotated image datasets, which can be very difficult to obtain. This is particularly true for satellite instruments, which very rarely overlap with labelled data, and suffer from domain shifts in the rare occasions they do. In this paper, we investigate the potential of flow matching models for unsupervised domain adaptation of satellite radiometer images. Our main contribution is a novel unsupervised method that achieves precise domain alignment by leveraging parts of the deterministic ordinary differential equations in flow matching models, conditioned on different satellite instruments. A key strength of our approach is its ability to preserve essential information while adapting across any domains since the perturbations are in theory bijective. Extensive experiments conducted on the GPM-Core constellation show the benefit of our conditional domain adaptation, particularly in improving rain precipitation estimation from radiometer imagery.

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

The numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) is difficult, having led to a century of research so far. Recently, there have been pushes to build neural--numerical hybrid solvers, which piggy-backs the modern trend towards fully end-to-end learned systems. Most works so far can only generalize over a subset of properties to which a generic solver would be faced, including: resolution, topology, geometry, boundary conditions, domain discretization regularity, dimensionality, etc. In this work, we build a solver, satisfying these properties, where all the components are based on neural message passing, replacing all heuristically designed components in the computation graph with backprop-optimized neural function approximators. We show that neural message passing solvers representationally contain some classical methods, such as finite differences, finite volumes, and WENO schemes. In order to encourage stability in training autoregressive models, we put forward a method that is based on the principle of zero-stability, posing stability as a domain adaptation problem. We validate our method on various fluid-like flow problems, demonstrating fast, stable, and accurate performance across different domain topologies, equation parameters, discretizations, etc., in 1D and 2D.

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

The dominant line of work in domain adaptation has focused on learning invariant representations using domain-adversarial training. In this paper, we interpret this approach from a game theoretical perspective. Defining optimal solutions in domain-adversarial training as a local Nash equilibrium, we show that gradient descent in domain-adversarial training can violate the asymptotic convergence guarantees of the optimizer, oftentimes hindering the transfer performance. Our analysis leads us to replace gradient descent with high-order ODE solvers (i.e., Runge-Kutta), for which we derive asymptotic convergence guarantees. This family of optimizers is significantly more stable and allows more aggressive learning rates, leading to high performance gains when used as a drop-in replacement over standard optimizers. Our experiments show that in conjunction with state-of-the-art domain-adversarial methods, we achieve up to 3.5% improvement with less than of half training iterations. Our optimizers are easy to implement, free of additional parameters, and can be plugged into any domain-adversarial framework.

Flow- and diffusion-based generative models have recently emerged as flexible and highly efficient forecasting models for dynamical systems. When combined with inference-time guidance, they offer a promising route to high-dimensional non-Gaussian data assimilation (DA), the problem of combining forecasts with observations to estimate latent system states. Existing filters, however, condition on a fixed history and assimilate only the most recent observation, leaving them unable to revise past states when new observations arrive. Estimates then stay tethered to a history that later observations may contradict, and errors accumulate over the assimilation run. To this end, we introduce **DAWIS**, a unified DA method covering filtering, fixed-lag smoothing, and block smoothing within a single framework. DAWIS replaces the single flow time of a state-level prior with a multitask stochastic interpolant over a window of consecutive states, assigning a separate flow time to each. An assimilation cycle inverts the window to a vector of per-state turning points and regenerates it under observation guidance, with the turning points controlling how strongly each state is held fixed, revised, or generated from scratch. The same construction can also absorb the forecast into the assimilation cycle, removing the need for a separate forecasting model. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAWIS improves on both filtering and smoothing baselines under sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations. The code for DAWIS is available at https://github.com/Erik-Wikingsson/DAWIS

Domain Generalization (DG) is a critical area that focuses on developing models capable of performing well on data from unseen distributions, which is essential for real-world applications. Existing approaches primarily concentrate on learning domain-invariant features, which assume that a model robust to variations in the source domains will generalize well to unseen target domains. However, these approaches neglect a deeper analysis at the parameter level, which makes the model hard to explicitly differentiate between parameters sensitive to domain shifts and those robust, potentially hindering its overall ability to generalize. In order to address these limitations, we first build a covariance-based parameter sensitivity analysis framework to quantify the sensitivity of each parameter in a model to domain shifts. By computing the covariance of parameter gradients across multiple source domains, we can identify parameters that are more susceptible to domain variations, which serves as our theoretical foundation. Based on this, we propose Domain-Sensitive Parameter Regularization (DSP-Reg), a principled framework that guides model optimization by a soft regularization technique that encourages the model to rely more on domain-invariant parameters while suppressing those that are domain-specific. This approach provides a more granular control over the model's learning process, leading to improved robustness and generalization to unseen domains. Extensive experiments on benchmarks, such as PACS, VLCS, OfficeHome, and DomainNet, demonstrate that DSP-Reg outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, achieving an average accuracy of 66.7\% and surpassing all baselines.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Neural networks are known to be data hungry and domain sensitive, but it is nearly impossible to obtain large quantities of labeled data for every domain we are interested in. This necessitates the use of domain adaptation strategies. One common strategy encourages generalization by aligning the global distribution statistics between source and target domains, but one drawback is that the statistics of different domains or tasks are inherently divergent, and smoothing over these differences can lead to sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we propose the framework of {\it Domain Differential Adaptation (DDA)}, where instead of smoothing over these differences we embrace them, directly modeling the difference between domains using models in a related task. We then use these learned domain differentials to adapt models for the target task accordingly. Experimental results on domain adaptation for neural machine translation demonstrate the effectiveness of this strategy, achieving consistent improvements over other alternative adaptation strategies in multiple experimental settings.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

We introduce IND-Eval, a public benchmark that organizes industrial time series across domains into source-specific forecasting tasks. Relative to established benchmarks such as GIFT-Eval, it emphasizes finer sampling resolutions and a greater prevalence of multivariate forecasting. Evaluating Chronos-2, TiRex-2, and TimesFM-3, we find that TimesFM-3 achieves the lowest source-balanced aggregate nMASE and nCRPS and leads seven of nine sources under each metric; source-specific exceptions reinforce the need for domain-representative evaluation for model selection. These findings also motivate improving domain alignment during pretraining, where real industrial data are often too scarce to close domain-specific gaps directly; we therefore investigate whether a domain's statistical structure can guide simulator design. In a case study on two offshore well-monitoring regimes, we improve a general simulator's coverage using an oscillator-augmented simulation pipeline. This lowers forecasting error in the target domain but reduces performance on the subset of GIFT-Eval with natively univariate targets. A 50/50 mixture of the general and augmented simulation recipes achieves the lowest error among the three training recipes for all four event-metric pairs in the case study while recovering most of the lost GIFT-Eval performance. Together, these results illustrate how domain-representative evaluation can guide model selection and the composition of simulated data while revealing a trade-off between specialization and generality.

Time series domain adaptation stands as a pivotal and intricate challenge with diverse applications, including but not limited to human activity recognition, sleep stage classification, and machine fault diagnosis. Despite the numerous domain adaptation techniques proposed to tackle this complex problem, they primarily focus on domain adaptation from a single source domain. Yet, it is more crucial to investigate domain adaptation from multiple domains due to the potential for greater improvements. To address this, three important challenges need to be overcome: 1). The lack of exploration to utilize domain-specific information for domain adaptation, 2). The difficulty to learn domain-specific information that changes over time, and 3). The difficulty to evaluate learned domain-specific information. In order to tackle these challenges simultaneously, in this paper, we introduce PrOmpt-based domaiN Discrimination (POND), the first framework to utilize prompts for time series domain adaptation. Specifically, to address Challenge 1, we extend the idea of prompt tuning to time series analysis and learn prompts to capture common and domain-specific information from all source domains. To handle Challenge 2, we introduce a conditional module for each source domain to generate prompts from time series input data. For Challenge 3, we propose two criteria to select good prompts, which are used to choose the most suitable source domain for domain adaptation. The efficacy and robustness of our proposed POND model are extensively validated through experiments across 50 scenarios encompassing four datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed POND model outperforms all state-of-the-art comparison methods by up to 66% on the F1-score.

AI weather models now rival leading numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems in medium-range skill. However, almost all still rely on NWP data assimilation (DA) to provide initial conditions, tying them to expensive infrastructure and limiting the practical speed and accuracy gains of ML. More recently, ML-based DA systems have been proposed, which are often trained and evaluated end-to-end with a forecast model, making it difficult to assess the quality of their analysis fields. We introduce HealDA, a global ML-based DA system that maps a short window of satellite and conventional observations directly to a 1° atmospheric state on the HEALPix grid, using a smaller sensor suite than operational NWP and no background forecast at runtime. We treat HealDA strictly as a DA module: its analyses are used to initialize off-the-shelf ML forecast models without any fine-tuning of either. For a variety of off-the-shelf ML forecast models, including FourCastNet3 (FCN3), Aurora, and FengWu, HealDA-initialized forecasts lose less than one day of effective lead time when scored against ERA5. HealDA-initialized FCN3 ensembles similarly trail those of the ECMWF IFS ENS system by < 24 h. We find that forecast error growth in these models i unchanged from HealDA initialization, and the skill gap primarily arises from the larger initial error of the HealDA analysis. Spectral analysis reveals that this stems from overfitting to the large scales and upper-tropospheric fields. We also demonstrate that small changes in the verification setup can shift apparent skill by 12--24h, underscoring the need for consistent scoring. Taken together, these results clarify the current performance of ML-based DA systems and show that a relatively simple, background-free network can already provide initial conditions that are usable by state-of-the-art ML forecast models with only modest loss in medium-range skill.

Domain adaptive detection aims to improve the generality of a detector, learned from the labeled source domain, on the unlabeled target domain. In this work, drawing inspiration from the concept of stability from the control theory that a robust system requires to remain consistent both externally and internally regardless of disturbances, we propose a novel framework that achieves unsupervised domain adaptive detection through stability analysis. In specific, we treat discrepancies between images and regions from different domains as disturbances, and introduce a novel simple but effective Network Stability Analysis (NSA) framework that considers various disturbances for domain adaptation. Particularly, we explore three types of perturbations including heavy and light image-level disturbances and instancelevel disturbance. For each type, NSA performs external consistency analysis on the outputs from raw and perturbed images and/or internal consistency analysis on their features, using teacher-student models. By integrating NSA into Faster R-CNN, we immediately achieve state-of-the-art results. In particular, we set a new record of 52.7% mAP on Cityscapes-to-FoggyCityscapes, showing the potential of NSA for domain adaptive detection. It is worth noticing, our NSA is designed for general purpose, and thus applicable to one-stage detection model (e.g., FCOS) besides the adopted one, as shown by experiments. https://github.com/tiankongzhang/NSA.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Calibrating distributed hydrologic models is a critical bottleneck across operational water resources management - streamflow prediction, reservoir operation, drought monitoring, infrastructure design, and flood forecasting all depend on it. Each basin demands an expert to translate hydrograph signatures into adjustments of a high-dimensional parameter vector, and the resulting workflow does not transfer between watersheds. We ask: can frontier large language model (LLM) agents replace the human hydrologic modeler, and if not, what would it take? We benchmark nine frontier LLM agents - Claude Opus 4.6/4.7, Sonnet 4.6, GPT-5/5.4/5.4-pro, and Gemini 2.5-pro/3.1-pro/3-flash - on the operational CREST distributed hydrologic model used by the U.S. National Weather Service for flash-flood forecasting. Best-of-twenty-rounds Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across four held-out gauges spanning 329-40,792 km2 ranges from -0.16 (GPT-5.4) to 0.75 (Sonnet 4.6); the ceiling reproduces across all three vendors and capability tiers, with the strongest models concentrating in the 0.65-0.75 band, and no model reaches the human-expert reference except Opus-4.7 on one gauge. We argue this gap is not a parameter-count problem but a domain-grounding problem. We then propose HYDROAGENT, fine-tuning open-weight Qwen3-4B with supervised fine-tuning on 2,576 expert calibration trajectories and Group-Relative Policy Optimization using NSE as a verifiable reward from online CREST simulations - reinforcement learning with simulation feedback (RLSF). For Earth system science, a small domain-tuned policy with simulator-in-the-loop RL is a more compute-efficient and physically faithful path than scaling generic frontier models, and the multi-modal richness of Earth data - remote sensing, in-situ time series, and forecaster narrative - makes domain agents a leveraged direction for AI in physical science.

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.

Domain Adaptation (DA) is a method for enhancing a model's performance on a target domain with inadequate annotated data by applying the information the model has acquired from a related source domain with sufficient labeled data. The escalating enforcement of data-privacy regulations like HIPAA, COPPA, FERPA, etc. have sparked a heightened interest in adapting models to novel domains while circumventing the need for direct access to the source data, a problem known as Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA). In this paper, we propose a novel framework for SFDA that generates source data using a text-to-image diffusion model trained on the target domain samples. Our method starts by training a text-to-image diffusion model on the labeled target domain samples, which is then fine-tuned using the pre-trained source model to generate samples close to the source data. Finally, we use Domain Adaptation techniques to align the artificially generated source data with the target domain data, resulting in significant performance improvements of the model on the target domain. Through extensive comparison against several baselines on the standard Office-31, Office-Home, and VisDA benchmarks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for the SFDA task.

Turbulence is a central testbed for machine learning on physical dynamics because its governing laws are known exactly. However, most existing studies remain in 2D, while 3D turbulence has fundamentally different physics and is far more costly to simulate. Existing 3D resources also typically provide only one realization per configuration, making it difficult to distinguish learning the dynamics from fitting the statistics of a single flow. In this paper, we introduce TIDE (Turbulent Incompressible DNS Ensembles), a 256^3 DNS corpus and benchmark for 3D incompressible turbulence, with 15 configurations on eight controlled axes, independent ensembles, pressure fields, and equation-level verification. The benchmark includes five tasks, standardized learned baselines, controlled generalization splits, and physical-fidelity metrics alongside pointwise error. Across the main forecasting configurations, current learned models barely outperform persistence and still make about twice the error of a spectral solver given the true equations. Moreover, lower pointwise error can coincide with severely distorted small-scale dynamics, showing that accuracy alone does not ensure physical fidelity. Generalization results further show that most regime shifts reflect limited training coverage, whereas forced-to-decay transfer exposes a missing conditioning variable: operators trained under forcing continue to predict driven evolution when the external drive is removed. Closing these accuracy, fidelity, and conditioning gaps is the central open problem made measurable by TIDE.

Domain adaptation aims to turn a general-purpose large language model (LLM) into an expert for a target domain. While the dominant SFT+RL pipeline offers a convenient cold start, it may reduce exploration diversity and introduces additional complexity through multi-stage optimization. These limitations motivate RL-only adaptation. However, pure on-policy RL suffers from a cold-start problem, while mixed-policy RL still falls short: informative tokens in teacher outputs are learned too slowly in early training, and stale teacher outputs can hinder later improvement. We identify these two failure modes as Gradient Starvation and Teacher-Distribution Anchoring. To address them, we propose One-stage Policy Optimization (OnePO), which treats teacher outputs as transient guidance for policy improvement. OnePO combines Adaptive Objective Evolution to strengthen learning on informative low-probability teacher tokens and Teacher Retirement to discard teacher outputs once the current policy can surpass them. On medical adaptation, OnePO achieves 67.2 on HealthBench (Total) with only 20K training samples, outperforming SFT+RL and pure RL by 2.7 and 7.4 points, respectively. We further scale OnePO to produce HuatuoGPT-3, an open-source medical LLM series whose 27B variant reaches 70.1 on HealthBench (Total) and 71.4 on HealthBench Professional, surpassing frontier models such as GPT-6 Astra. Models and code are available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/HuatuoGPT-3.

Neural surrogates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) have the potential to greatly enhance engineering innovation through accelerating simulation. However, the primary limitation for neural surrogates is the lack of generalization to geometries and applications beyond the training set, which is significant given the diversity of engineering scenarios. Currently, this is addressed by generating a new dataset for a specific application; however, this requires running costly numerical solvers. In this work, we take a step toward addressing this by studying neural surrogates trained across different geometries, boundary conditions, and fidelities. We find that cross-domain pretraining improves zero- and few-shot performance on held-out datasets relative to both training from scratch and transferring from domain-specific experts. In particular, finetuning a pretrained, cross-domain model can achieve 2-3x lower errors at the same sample size and use 8x fewer samples to achieve the same error, compared to training from scratch. This benefit is architecture agnostic and improves with model size and pretraining dataset diversity. Furthermore, we study how and why cross-domain pretraining works in CFD surrogates, and find that simply pooling steady-state datasets is both sufficient and effective. Given the high cost of generating CFD data, leveraging existing datasets through cross-domain pretraining will likely be a valuable strategy as future surrogates expand to tackle new problems and use cases.

In this paper, we propose a framework for efficient Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) in the context of time-series, focusing on enhancing both parameter efficiency and data-sample utilization. Our approach introduces an improved paradigm for source-model preparation and target-side adaptation, aiming to enhance training efficiency during target adaptation. Specifically, we reparameterize the source model's weights in a Tucker-style decomposed manner, factorizing the model into a compact form during the source model preparation phase. During target-side adaptation, only a subset of these decomposed factors is fine-tuned, leading to significant improvements in training efficiency. We demonstrate using PAC Bayesian analysis that this selective fine-tuning strategy implicitly regularizes the adaptation process by constraining the model's learning capacity. Furthermore, this re-parameterization reduces the overall model size and enhances inference efficiency, making the approach particularly well suited for resource-constrained devices. Additionally, we demonstrate that our framework is compatible with various SFDA methods and achieves significant computational efficiency, reducing the number of fine-tuned parameters and inference overhead in terms of MACs by over 90% while maintaining model performance.

Configuring computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations typically demands extensive domain expertise, limiting broader access. Although large language models (LLMs) have advanced scientific computing, their use in automating CFD workflows is underdeveloped. We introduce a novel approach centered on domain-specific LLM adaptation. By fine-tuning Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct on NL2FOAM, our custom dataset of 28716 natural language-to-OpenFOAM configuration pairs with chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations, we enable direct translation from natural language descriptions to executable CFD setups. A multi-agent framework orchestrates the process, autonomously verifying inputs, generating configurations, running simulations, and correcting errors. Evaluation on a benchmark of 21 diverse flow cases demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, achieving 88.7% solution accuracy and 82.6% first-attempt success rate. This significantly outperforms larger general-purpose models like Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct, DeepSeek-R1, and Llama3.3-70B-Instruct, while also requiring fewer correction iterations and maintaining high computational efficiency. The results highlight the critical role of domain-specific adaptation in deploying LLM assistants for complex engineering workflows. Our code and fine-tuned model have been deposited at https://github.com/YYgroup/AutoCFD.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Domain adaptation is to transfer the shared knowledge learned from the source domain to a new environment, i.e., target domain. One common practice is to train the model on both labeled source-domain data and unlabeled target-domain data. Yet the learned models are usually biased due to the strong supervision of the source domain. Most researchers adopt the early-stopping strategy to prevent over-fitting, but when to stop training remains a challenging problem since the lack of the target-domain validation set. In this paper, we propose one efficient bootstrapping method, called Adaboost Student, explicitly learning complementary models during training and liberating users from empirical early stopping. Adaboost Student combines the deep model learning with the conventional training strategy, i.e., adaptive boosting, and enables interactions between learned models and the data sampler. We adopt one adaptive data sampler to progressively facilitate learning on hard samples and aggregate "weak" models to prevent over-fitting. Extensive experiments show that (1) Without the need to worry about the stopping time, AdaBoost Student provides one robust solution by efficient complementary model learning during training. (2) AdaBoost Student is orthogonal to most domain adaptation methods, which can be combined with existing approaches to further improve the state-of-the-art performance. We have achieved competitive results on three widely-used scene segmentation domain adaptation benchmarks.

In this work we develop a novel domain splitting strategy for the solution of partial differential equations. Focusing on a uniform discretization of the d-dimensional advection-diffusion equation, our proposal is a two-level algorithm that merges the solutions obtained from the discretization of the equation over highly anisotropic submeshes to compute an initial approximation of the fine solution. The algorithm then iteratively refines the initial guess by leveraging the structure of the residual. Performing costly calculations on anisotropic submeshes enable us to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by one, and the merging process, which involves the computation of solutions over disjoint domains, allows for parallel implementation.

Domain adaptation framework of GANs has achieved great progress in recent years as a main successful approach of training contemporary GANs in the case of very limited training data. In this work, we significantly improve this framework by proposing an extremely compact parameter space for fine-tuning the generator. We introduce a novel domain-modulation technique that allows to optimize only 6 thousand-dimensional vector instead of 30 million weights of StyleGAN2 to adapt to a target domain. We apply this parameterization to the state-of-art domain adaptation methods and show that it has almost the same expressiveness as the full parameter space. Additionally, we propose a new regularization loss that considerably enhances the diversity of the fine-tuned generator. Inspired by the reduction in the size of the optimizing parameter space we consider the problem of multi-domain adaptation of GANs, i.e. setting when the same model can adapt to several domains depending on the input query. We propose the HyperDomainNet that is a hypernetwork that predicts our parameterization given the target domain. We empirically confirm that it can successfully learn a number of domains at once and may even generalize to unseen domains. Source code can be found at https://github.com/MACderRu/HyperDomainNet

Domain adaptation (DA) attempts to transfer the knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain that follows different distribution from the source. To achieve this, DA methods include a source classification objective to extract the source knowledge and a domain alignment objective to diminish the domain shift, ensuring knowledge transfer. Typically, former DA methods adopt some weight hyper-parameters to linearly combine the training objectives to form an overall objective. However, the gradient directions of these objectives may conflict with each other due to domain shift. Under such circumstances, the linear optimization scheme might decrease the overall objective value at the expense of damaging one of the training objectives, leading to restricted solutions. In this paper, we rethink the optimization scheme for DA from a gradient-based perspective. We propose a Pareto Domain Adaptation (ParetoDA) approach to control the overall optimization direction, aiming to cooperatively optimize all training objectives. Specifically, to reach a desirable solution on the target domain, we design a surrogate loss mimicking target classification. To improve target-prediction accuracy to support the mimicking, we propose a target-prediction refining mechanism which exploits domain labels via Bayes' theorem. On the other hand, since prior knowledge of weighting schemes for objectives is often unavailable to guide optimization to approach the optimal solution on the target domain, we propose a dynamic preference mechanism to dynamically guide our cooperative optimization by the gradient of the surrogate loss on a held-out unlabeled target dataset. Extensive experiments on image classification and semantic segmentation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of ParetoDA

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Data-driven surrogate models improve the efficiency of simulating continuous dynamical systems, yet their autoregressive rollouts are often limited by instability and spectral blow-up. While global regularization techniques can enforce contractive dynamics, they uniformly damp high-frequency features, introducing a contraction-dissipation dilemma. Furthermore, long-horizon trajectory optimization methods that explicitly correct drift are bottlenecked by memory constraints. In this work, we propose Jacobian-Adaptive Weighting for Stability (JAWS), a probabilistic regularization strategy designed to mitigate these limitations. By framing operator learning as Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation with spatially heteroscedastic uncertainty, JAWS dynamically modulates the regularization strength based on local physical complexity. This allows the model to enforce contraction in smooth regions to suppress noise, while relaxing constraints near singular features to preserve gradients, effectively realizing a behavior similar to numerical shock-capturing schemes. Experiments demonstrate that this spatially-adaptive prior serves as an effective spectral pre-conditioner, which reduces the base operator's burden of handling high-frequency instabilities. This reduction enables memory-efficient, short-horizon trajectory optimization to match or exceed the long-term accuracy of long-horizon baselines. Evaluated on the 1D viscous Burgers' equation, our hybrid approach improves long-term stability, shock fidelity, and out-of-distribution generalization while reducing training computational costs.

Domain adaptation seeks to mitigate the shift between training on the source domain and testing on the target domain. Most adaptation methods rely on the source data by joint optimization over source data and target data. Source-free methods replace the source data with a source model by fine-tuning it on target. Either way, the majority of the parameter updates for the model representation and the classifier are derived from the source, and not the target. However, target accuracy is the goal, and so we argue for optimizing as much as possible on the target data. We show significant improvement by on-target adaptation, which learns the representation purely from target data while taking only the source predictions for supervision. In the long-tailed classification setting, we show further improvement by on-target class distribution learning, which learns the (im)balance of classes from target data.

We introduce Poseidon, a foundation model for learning the solution operators of PDEs. It is based on a multiscale operator transformer, with time-conditioned layer norms that enable continuous-in-time evaluations. A novel training strategy leveraging the semi-group property of time-dependent PDEs to allow for significant scaling-up of the training data is also proposed. Poseidon is pretrained on a diverse, large scale dataset for the governing equations of fluid dynamics. It is then evaluated on a suite of 15 challenging downstream tasks that include a wide variety of PDE types and operators. We show that Poseidon exhibits excellent performance across the board by outperforming baselines significantly, both in terms of sample efficiency and accuracy. Poseidon also generalizes very well to new physics that is not seen during pretraining. Moreover, Poseidon scales with respect to model and data size, both for pretraining and for downstream tasks. Taken together, our results showcase the surprising ability of Poseidon to learn effective representations from a very small set of PDEs during pretraining in order to generalize well to unseen and unrelated PDEs downstream, demonstrating its potential as an effective, general purpose PDE foundation model. Finally, the Poseidon model as well as underlying pretraining and downstream datasets are open sourced, with code being available at https://github.com/camlab-ethz/poseidon and pretrained models and datasets at https://huggingface.co/camlab-ethz.

Reduced-order modeling (ROM) of time-dependent and parameterized differential equations aims to accelerate the simulation of complex high-dimensional systems by learning a compact latent manifold representation that captures the characteristics of the solution fields and their time-dependent dynamics. Although high-fidelity numerical solvers generate the training datasets, they have thus far been excluded from the training process, causing the learned latent dynamics to drift away from the discretized governing physics. This mismatch often limits generalization and forecasting capabilities. In this work, we propose Physics-informed ROM (Φ-ROM) by incorporating differentiable PDE solvers into the training procedure. Specifically, the latent space dynamics and its dependence on PDE parameters are shaped directly by the governing physics encoded in the solver, ensuring a strong correspondence between the full and reduced systems. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art data-driven ROMs and other physics-informed strategies by accurately generalizing to new dynamics arising from unseen parameters, enabling long-term forecasting beyond the training horizon, maintaining continuity in both time and space, and reducing the data cost. Furthermore, Φ-ROM learns to recover and forecast the solution fields even when trained or evaluated with sparse and irregular observations of the fields, providing a flexible framework for field reconstruction and data assimilation. We demonstrate the framework's robustness across various PDE solvers and highlight its broad applicability by providing an open-source JAX implementation that is readily extensible to other PDE systems and differentiable solvers, available at https://phi-rom.github.io.

Democratization of machine learning requires architectures that automatically adapt to new problems. Neural Differential Equations (NDEs) have emerged as a popular modeling framework by removing the need for ML practitioners to choose the number of layers in a recurrent model. While we can control the computational cost by choosing the number of layers in standard architectures, in NDEs the number of neural network evaluations for a forward pass can depend on the number of steps of the adaptive ODE solver. But, can we force the NDE to learn the version with the least steps while not increasing the training cost? Current strategies to overcome slow prediction require high order automatic differentiation, leading to significantly higher training time. We describe a novel regularization method that uses the internal cost heuristics of adaptive differential equation solvers combined with discrete adjoint sensitivities to guide the training process towards learning NDEs that are easier to solve. This approach opens up the blackbox numerical analysis behind the differential equation solver's algorithm and directly uses its local error estimates and stiffness heuristics as cheap and accurate cost estimates. We incorporate our method without any change in the underlying NDE framework and show that our method extends beyond Ordinary Differential Equations to accommodate Neural Stochastic Differential Equations. We demonstrate how our approach can halve the prediction time and, unlike other methods which can increase the training time by an order of magnitude, we demonstrate similar reduction in training times. Together this showcases how the knowledge embedded within state-of-the-art equation solvers can be used to enhance machine learning.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) seeks to adapt source pre-trained models to continually changing, unseen target domains. While existing CTTA methods assume structured domain changes with uniform durations, real-world environments often exhibit dynamic patterns where domains recur with varying frequencies and durations. Current approaches, which adapt the same parameters across different domains, struggle in such dynamic conditions-they face convergence issues with brief domain exposures, risk forgetting previously learned knowledge, or misapplying it to irrelevant domains. To remedy this, we propose DPCore, a method designed for robust performance across diverse domain change patterns while ensuring computational efficiency. DPCore integrates three key components: Visual Prompt Adaptation for efficient domain alignment, a Prompt Coreset for knowledge preservation, and a Dynamic Update mechanism that intelligently adjusts existing prompts for similar domains while creating new ones for substantially different domains. Extensive experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that DPCore consistently outperforms various CTTA methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in both structured and dynamic settings while reducing trainable parameters by 99% and computation time by 64% compared to previous approaches.

Domain adaptation aims to mitigate distribution shifts among different domains. However, traditional formulations are mostly limited to categorical domains, greatly simplifying nuanced domain relationships in the real world. In this work, we tackle a generalization with taxonomy-structured domains, which formalizes domains with nested, hierarchical similarity structures such as animal species and product catalogs. We build on the classic adversarial framework and introduce a novel taxonomist, which competes with the adversarial discriminator to preserve the taxonomy information. The equilibrium recovers the classic adversarial domain adaptation's solution if given a non-informative domain taxonomy (e.g., a flat taxonomy where all leaf nodes connect to the root node) while yielding non-trivial results with other taxonomies. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets with successful adaptation. Code is available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/TSDA.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Domain shifts such as sensor type changes and geographical situation variations are prevalent in Autonomous Driving (AD), which poses a challenge since AD model relying on the previous domain knowledge can be hardly directly deployed to a new domain without additional costs. In this paper, we provide a new perspective and approach of alleviating the domain shifts, by proposing a Reconstruction-Simulation-Perception (ReSimAD) scheme. Specifically, the implicit reconstruction process is based on the knowledge from the previous old domain, aiming to convert the domain-related knowledge into domain-invariant representations, e.g., 3D scene-level meshes. Besides, the point clouds simulation process of multiple new domains is conditioned on the above reconstructed 3D meshes, where the target-domain-like simulation samples can be obtained, thus reducing the cost of collecting and annotating new-domain data for the subsequent perception process. For experiments, we consider different cross-domain situations such as Waymo-to-KITTI, Waymo-to-nuScenes, Waymo-to-ONCE, etc, to verify the zero-shot target-domain perception using ReSimAD. Results demonstrate that our method is beneficial to boost the domain generalization ability, even promising for 3D pre-training.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

Domain-specific supervised fine-tuning (SFT) often improves in-domain performance at the cost of degrading a model's general capabilities. We view this degradation through two practical gaps in domain SFT: a supervision-compatibility gap, where domain targets differ in style and reasoning format from the original model's natural responses, and a trajectory-preservation gap, where teacher-forced SFT optimizes fixed target tokens without constraining the model's behavior on its own generated prefixes. This process fails to preserve the model's original behavior. We propose RAFT (Data Refinement and Adaptive Distillation for Domain Fine-Tuning with Alleviated Forgetting), a two-stage framework that addresses both factors. First, RAFT constructs model-compatible supervision through self-conditioned rewriting, semantic filtering, and answer fusion. Second, RAFT performs Answer-Conditioned On-Policy Distillation, where the original instruction-tuned model provides soft targets on student-generated trajectories while being conditioned on the fused answer as helpful context. We further introduce top-K temperature distillation and EMA-based adaptive loss balancing to stabilize the domain-general trade-off. Across three instruction-tuned backbones and five domains, RAFT improves average domain accuracy by 23.2% over standard SFT, while recovering part of the SFT-induced degradation on MS-Bench and IFEval, with relative improvements of 18.2% and 10.2%, respectively. These results show that coupling data refinement with trajectory-level preservation provides an effective recipe for domain fine-tuning with alleviated forgetting.

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) aims at reducing the domain gap between training and testing data and is, in most cases, carried out in offline manner. However, domain changes may occur continuously and unpredictably during deployment (e.g. sudden weather changes). In such conditions, deep neural networks witness dramatic drops in accuracy and offline adaptation may not be enough to contrast it. In this paper, we tackle Online Domain Adaptation (OnDA) for semantic segmentation. We design a pipeline that is robust to continuous domain shifts, either gradual or sudden, and we evaluate it in the case of rainy and foggy scenarios. Our experiments show that our framework can effectively adapt to new domains during deployment, while not being affected by catastrophic forgetting of the previous domains.

This paper presents a methodology to learn surrogate models of steady state fluid dynamics simulations on meshed domains, based on Implicit Neural Representations (INRs). The proposed models can be applied directly to unstructured domains for different flow conditions, handle non-parametric 3D geometric variations, and generalize to unseen shapes at test time. The coordinate-based formulation naturally leads to robustness with respect to discretization, allowing an excellent trade-off between computational cost (memory footprint and training time) and accuracy. The method is demonstrated on two industrially relevant applications: a RANS dataset of the two-dimensional compressible flow over a transonic airfoil and a dataset of the surface pressure distribution over 3D wings, including shape, inflow condition, and control surface deflection variations. On the considered test cases, our approach achieves a more than three times lower test error and significantly improves generalization error on unseen geometries compared to state-of-the-art Graph Neural Network architectures. Remarkably, the method can perform inference five order of magnitude faster than the high fidelity solver on the RANS transonic airfoil dataset. Code is available at https://gitlab.isae-supaero.fr/gi.catalani/aero-nepf

Machine learning models fail to perform when facing out-of-distribution (OOD) domains, a challenging task known as domain generalization (DG). In this work, we develop a novel DG training strategy, we call PGrad, to learn a robust gradient direction, improving models' generalization ability on unseen domains. The proposed gradient aggregates the principal directions of a sampled roll-out optimization trajectory that measures the training dynamics across all training domains. PGrad's gradient design forces the DG training to ignore domain-dependent noise signals and updates all training domains with a robust direction covering main components of parameter dynamics. We further improve PGrad via bijection-based computational refinement and directional plus length-based calibrations. Our theoretical proof connects PGrad to the spectral analysis of Hessian in training neural networks. Experiments on DomainBed and WILDS benchmarks demonstrate that our approach effectively enables robust DG optimization and leads to smoothly decreased loss curves. Empirically, PGrad achieves competitive results across seven datasets, demonstrating its efficacy across both synthetic and real-world distributional shifts. Code is available at https://github.com/QData/PGrad.

Many recent machine learning tasks focus to develop models that can generalize to unseen distributions. Domain generalization (DG) has become one of the key topics in various fields. Several literatures show that DG can be arbitrarily hard without exploiting target domain information. To address this issue, test-time adaptive (TTA) methods are proposed. Existing TTA methods require offline target data or extra sophisticated optimization procedures during the inference stage. In this work, we adopt Non-Parametric Classifier to perform the test-time Adaptation (AdaNPC). In particular, we construct a memory that contains the feature and label pairs from training domains. During inference, given a test instance, AdaNPC first recalls K closed samples from the memory to vote for the prediction, and then the test feature and predicted label are added to the memory. In this way, the sample distribution in the memory can be gradually changed from the training distribution towards the test distribution with very little extra computation cost. We theoretically justify the rationality behind the proposed method. Besides, we test our model on extensive numerical experiments. AdaNPC significantly outperforms competitive baselines on various DG benchmarks. In particular, when the adaptation target is a series of domains, the adaptation accuracy of AdaNPC is 50% higher than advanced TTA methods. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/AdaNPC.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.

We propose a data-efficient, physics-aware generative framework in function space for inverse PDE problems. Existing plug-and-play diffusion posterior samplers represent physics implicitly through joint coefficient-solution modeling, requiring substantial paired supervision. In contrast, our Decoupled Diffusion Inverse Solver (DDIS) employs a decoupled design: an unconditional diffusion learns the coefficient prior, while a neural operator explicitly models the forward PDE for guidance. This decoupling enables superior data efficiency and effective physics-informed learning, while naturally supporting Decoupled Annealing Posterior Sampling (DAPS) to avoid over-smoothing in Diffusion Posterior Sampling (DPS). Theoretically, we prove that DDIS avoids the guidance attenuation failure of joint models when training data is scarce. Empirically, DDIS achieves state-of-the-art performance under sparse observation, improving l_2 error by 11% and spectral error by 54% on average; when data is limited to 1%, DDIS maintains accuracy with 40% advantage in l_2 error compared to joint models.

Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a leading source of model uncertainty. Here, we present a new approach to developing machine learning parameterizations of small-scale climate processes by fine-tuning a pre-trained AI foundation model (FM). FMs are largely unexplored in climate research. A pre-trained encoder-decoder from a 2.3 billion parameter FM (NASA and IBM Research's Prithvi WxC) -- which contains a latent probabilistic representation of atmospheric evolution -- is fine-tuned (or reused) to create a deep learning parameterization for atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The parameterization captures GW effects for a coarse-resolution climate model by learning the fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis with 10 times finer resolution. A comparison of monthly averages and instantaneous evolution with a machine learning model baseline (an Attention U-Net) reveals superior predictive performance of the FM parameterization throughout the atmosphere, even in regions excluded from pre-training. This performance boost is quantified using the Hellinger distance, which is 0.11 for the baseline and 0.06 for the fine-tuned model. Our findings emphasize the versatility and reusability of FMs, which could be used to accomplish a range of atmosphere- and climate-related applications, leading the way for the creation of observations-driven and physically accurate parameterizations for more earth-system processes.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.

Test-time adaptation harnesses test inputs to improve the accuracy of a model trained on source data when tested on shifted target data. Existing methods update the source model by (re-)training on each target domain. While effective, re-training is sensitive to the amount and order of the data and the hyperparameters for optimization. We instead update the target data, by projecting all test inputs toward the source domain with a generative diffusion model. Our diffusion-driven adaptation method, DDA, shares its models for classification and generation across all domains. Both models are trained on the source domain, then fixed during testing. We augment diffusion with image guidance and self-ensembling to automatically decide how much to adapt. Input adaptation by DDA is more robust than prior model adaptation approaches across a variety of corruptions, architectures, and data regimes on the ImageNet-C benchmark. With its input-wise updates, DDA succeeds where model adaptation degrades on too little data in small batches, dependent data in non-uniform order, or mixed data with multiple corruptions.

Machine learning approaches for solving partial differential equations require learning mappings between function spaces. While convolutional or graph neural networks are constrained to discretized functions, neural operators present a promising milestone toward mapping functions directly. Despite impressive results they still face challenges with respect to the domain geometry and typically rely on some form of discretization. In order to alleviate such limitations, we present CORAL, a new method that leverages coordinate-based networks for solving PDEs on general geometries. CORAL is designed to remove constraints on the input mesh, making it applicable to any spatial sampling and geometry. Its ability extends to diverse problem domains, including PDE solving, spatio-temporal forecasting, and inverse problems like geometric design. CORAL demonstrates robust performance across multiple resolutions and performs well in both convex and non-convex domains, surpassing or performing on par with state-of-the-art models.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Data-driven, deep-learning modeling frameworks have been recently developed for forecasting time series data. Such machine learning models may be useful in multiple domains including the atmospheric and oceanic ones, and in general, the larger fluids community. The present work investigates the possible effectiveness of such deep neural operator models for reproducing and predicting classic fluid flows and simulations of realistic ocean dynamics. We first briefly evaluate the capabilities of such deep neural operator models when trained on a simulated two-dimensional fluid flow past a cylinder. We then investigate their application to forecasting ocean surface circulation in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Massachusetts Bay, learning from high-resolution data-assimilative simulations employed for real sea experiments. We confirm that trained deep neural operator models are capable of predicting idealized periodic eddy shedding. For realistic ocean surface flows and our preliminary study, they can predict several of the features and show some skill, providing potential for future research and applications.

Memory complexity and data scarcity have so far prohibited learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs) at high resolutions. We address these limitations by introducing a new data efficient and highly parallelizable operator learning approach with reduced memory requirement and better generalization, called multi-grid tensorized neural operator (MG-TFNO). MG-TFNO scales to large resolutions by leveraging local and global structures of full-scale, real-world phenomena, through a decomposition of both the input domain and the operator's parameter space. Our contributions are threefold: i) we enable parallelization over input samples with a novel multi-grid-based domain decomposition, ii) we represent the parameters of the model in a high-order latent subspace of the Fourier domain, through a global tensor factorization, resulting in an extreme reduction in the number of parameters and improved generalization, and iii) we propose architectural improvements to the backbone FNO. Our approach can be used in any operator learning setting. We demonstrate superior performance on the turbulent Navier-Stokes equations where we achieve less than half the error with over 150x compression. The tensorization combined with the domain decomposition, yields over 150x reduction in the number of parameters and 7x reduction in the domain size without losses in accuracy, while slightly enabling parallelism.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Traditional cross-domain tasks, including domain adaptation and domain generalization, rely heavily on training model by source domain data. With the recent advance of vision-language models (VLMs), viewed as natural source models, the cross-domain task changes to directly adapt the pre-trained source model to arbitrary target domains equipped with prior domain knowledge, and we name this task Adaptive Domain Generalization (ADG). However, current cross-domain datasets have many limitations, such as unrealistic domains, unclear domain definitions, and the inability to fine-grained domain decomposition, which drives us to establish a novel dataset DomainVerse for ADG. Benefiting from the introduced hierarchical definition of domain shifts, DomainVerse consists of about 0.5 million images from 390 fine-grained realistic domains. With the help of the constructed DomainVerse and VLMs, we propose two methods called Domain CLIP and Domain++ CLIP for tuning-free adaptive domain generalization. Extensive and comprehensive experiments demonstrate the significance of the dataset and the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as popular mesh-free solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Recent extensions decompose the domain, applying different PINNs to solve the equation in each subdomain and aligning the solution at the interface of the subdomains. Hence, they can further alleviate the problem complexity, reduce the computational cost, and allow parallelization. However, the performance of the multi-domain PINNs is sensitive to the choice of the interface conditions for solution alignment. While quite a few conditions have been proposed, there is no suggestion about how to select the conditions according to specific problems. To address this gap, we propose META Learning of Interface Conditions (METALIC), a simple, efficient yet powerful approach to dynamically determine the optimal interface conditions for solving a family of parametric PDEs. Specifically, we develop two contextual multi-arm bandit models. The first one applies to the entire training procedure, and online updates a Gaussian process (GP) reward surrogate that given the PDE parameters and interface conditions predicts the solution error. The second one partitions the training into two stages, one is the stochastic phase and the other deterministic phase; we update a GP surrogate for each phase to enable different condition selections at the two stages so as to further bolster the flexibility and performance. We have shown the advantage of METALIC on four bench-mark PDE families.

Current LiDAR-based Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) multi-agent perception systems have shown the significant success on 3D object detection. While these models perform well in the trained clean weather, they struggle in unseen adverse weather conditions with the domain gap. In this paper, we propose a Domain Generalization based approach, named V2X-DGW, for LiDAR-based 3D object detection on multi-agent perception system under adverse weather conditions. Our research aims to not only maintain favorable multi-agent performance in the clean weather but also promote the performance in the unseen adverse weather conditions by learning only on the clean weather data. To realize the Domain Generalization, we first introduce the Adaptive Weather Augmentation (AWA) to mimic the unseen adverse weather conditions, and then propose two alignments for generalizable representation learning: Trust-region Weather-invariant Alignment (TWA) and Agent-aware Contrastive Alignment (ACA). To evaluate this research, we add Fog, Rain, Snow conditions on two publicized multi-agent datasets based on physics-based models, resulting in two new datasets: OPV2V-w and V2XSet-w. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our V2X-DGW achieved significant improvements in the unseen adverse weathers. The code is available at https://github.com/Baolu1998/V2X-DGW.

Ad-hoc instruction fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) is widely adopted for domain-specific adaptation. While domain-specific supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is effective and efficient, it often weakens cross-domain generalization and struggles with noisy training data. To address these challenges, we propose DONOD, a lightweight model-intrinsic data pruning method. Our approach evaluates data using two model-parameter-based metrics: Delta of Norm (DON), which captures the cumulative influence on model weights, and Norm of Delta (NOD), which quantifies weight instability. Moreover, by employing the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) algorithm, we effectively filter noisy, unlearnable, and generalization-harming samples without relying on auxiliary models during the SFT process. Experiments on mathematical tasks demonstrate that data selected by DONOD achieve superior fine-tuning efficiency and improved robustness against noisy data. By filtering out 70% of the full dataset, we improve target-domain accuracy by 14.90% and cross-domain accuracy by 5.67%. Meanwhile, our selected data present superior cross-architecture generalization. Data pruned by smaller models (e.g., Llama 3.1-8B) generalize effectively on larger models (e.g., Llama 2-13B). Compared to existing related methodologies, DONOD demonstrates comparable or superior performance while remaining dataset-agnostic, enabling broader applicability.

Multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD) distills several domain-expert teachers into a single student by minimizing per-domain reverse-KL divergence on the student's own rollouts. Existing approaches typically fix the per-domain data mixture before training, overlooking the fact that different domains converge at substantially different rates: some plateau early while others continue to improve throughout the training budget. A fixed mixture therefore wastes compute on fast-converging domains and undertrains slower-converging ones. To address this, we propose D^3-MOPD (Dynamic Domain ScheDuling for MOPD), a zero-overhead scheduler that repurposes the per-domain reverse-KL signal already produced during training to adapt the domain mixture online. Running asynchronously outside the training process, an off-process watcher periodically tracks each domain's KL trajectory, estimates remaining headroom and current improvement rate, and accordingly adjusts the domain sampling ratios without altering the core training loop. Our D^3-MOPD scales naturally to arbitrary numbers of domains, and the expected benefit grows as more domains introduce more diverse convergence patterns for the scheduler to exploit. On a Qwen3.6-35B-A3B student distilled from four domain-expert teachers, D^3-MOPD closes 97% of the average student-to-teacher performance gap, compared with 63% for vanilla MOPD, reaches the same peak performance with an approximately 3times reduction in rollout steps, and surpasses the specialist teachers on three of seven benchmarks.

Learning the solution operators of PDEs on arbitrary domains is challenging due to the diversity of possible domain shapes, in addition to the often intricate underlying physics. We propose an end-to-end graph neural network (GNN) based neural operator to learn PDE solution operators from data on point clouds in arbitrary domains. Our multi-scale model maps data between input/output point clouds by passing it through a downsampled regional mesh. Many novel elements are also incorporated to ensure resolution invariance and temporal continuity. Our model, termed RIGNO, is tested on a challenging suite of benchmarks, composed of various time-dependent and steady PDEs defined on a diverse set of domains. We demonstrate that RIGNO is significantly more accurate than neural operator baselines and robustly generalizes to unseen spatial resolutions and time instances.

Generalizing policies across different domains with dynamics mismatch poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. For example, a robot learns the policy in a simulator, but when it is deployed in the real world, the dynamics of the environment may be different. Given the source and target domain with dynamics mismatch, we consider the online dynamics adaptation problem, in which case the agent can access sufficient source domain data while online interactions with the target domain are limited. Existing research has attempted to solve the problem from the dynamics discrepancy perspective. In this work, we reveal the limitations of these methods and explore the problem from the value difference perspective via a novel insight on the value consistency across domains. Specifically, we present the Value-Guided Data Filtering (VGDF) algorithm, which selectively shares transitions from the source domain based on the proximity of paired value targets across the two domains. Empirical results on various environments with kinematic and morphology shifts demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to prior approaches.

We introduce BCAT, a PDE foundation model designed for autoregressive prediction of solutions to two dimensional fluid dynamics problems. Our approach uses a block causal transformer architecture to model next frame predictions, leveraging previous frames as contextual priors rather than relying solely on sub-frames or pixel-based inputs commonly used in image generation methods. This block causal framework more effectively captures the spatial dependencies inherent in nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics and physical phenomena. In an ablation study, next frame prediction demonstrated a 3.5x accuracy improvement over next token prediction. BCAT is trained on a diverse range of fluid dynamics datasets, including incompressible and compressible Navier-Stokes equations across various geometries and parameter regimes, as well as the shallow-water equations. The model's performance was evaluated on 6 distinct downstream prediction tasks and tested on about 8K trajectories to measure robustness on a variety of fluid dynamics simulations. BCAT achieved an average relative error of 1.18% across all evaluation tasks, outperforming prior approaches on standard benchmarks. With fine-tuning on a turbulence dataset, we show that the method adapts to new settings with more than 40% better accuracy over prior methods.

Large language models (LLMs) are commonly trained on multi-domain datasets, where domain sampling strategies significantly impact model performance due to varying domain importance across downstream tasks. Existing approaches for optimizing domain-level sampling strategies struggle with maintaining intra-domain consistency and accurately measuring domain impact. In this paper, we present Domain Impact-aware Data Sampling (DIDS). To ensure intra-domain consistency, a gradient clustering algorithm is proposed to group training data based on their learning effects, where a proxy language model and dimensionality reduction are employed to reduce computational overhead. To accurately measure domain impact, we develop a Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) guided metric that quantifies how domain-specific parameter updates affect the model's output distributions on downstream tasks, with theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, to determine optimal sampling ratios, DIDS combines both the FIM-guided domain impact assessment and loss learning trajectories that indicate domain-specific potential, while accounting for diminishing marginal returns. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DIDS achieves 3.4% higher average performance while maintaining comparable training efficiency.

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the field of underwater image enhancement (UIE). However, its practical utility for high-level vision tasks, such as underwater object detection (UOD) in Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs), remains relatively unexplored. It may be attributed to several factors: (1) Existing methods typically employ UIE as a pre-processing step, which inevitably introduces considerable computational overhead and latency. (2) The process of enhancing images prior to training object detectors may not necessarily yield performance improvements. (3) The complex underwater environments can induce significant domain shifts across different scenarios, seriously deteriorating the UOD performance. To address these challenges, we introduce EnYOLO, an integrated real-time framework designed for simultaneous UIE and UOD with domain-adaptation capability. Specifically, both the UIE and UOD task heads share the same network backbone and utilize a lightweight design. Furthermore, to ensure balanced training for both tasks, we present a multi-stage training strategy aimed at consistently enhancing their performance. Additionally, we propose a novel domain-adaptation strategy to align feature embeddings originating from diverse underwater environments. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our framework not only achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both UIE and UOD tasks, but also shows superior adaptability when applied to different underwater scenarios. Our efficiency analysis further highlights the substantial potential of our framework for onboard deployment.

Machine learning systems typically assume that the distributions of training and test sets match closely. However, a critical requirement of such systems in the real world is their ability to generalize to unseen domains. Here, we propose an inter-domain gradient matching objective that targets domain generalization by maximizing the inner product between gradients from different domains. Since direct optimization of the gradient inner product can be computationally prohibitive -- requires computation of second-order derivatives -- we derive a simpler first-order algorithm named Fish that approximates its optimization. We demonstrate the efficacy of Fish on 6 datasets from the Wilds benchmark, which captures distribution shift across a diverse range of modalities. Our method produces competitive results on these datasets and surpasses all baselines on 4 of them. We perform experiments on both the Wilds benchmark, which captures distribution shift in the real world, as well as datasets in DomainBed benchmark that focuses more on synthetic-to-real transfer. Our method produces competitive results on both benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness across a wide range of domain generalization tasks.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Domain generalization (DG) methods aim to achieve generalizability to an unseen target domain by using only training data from the source domains. Although a variety of DG methods have been proposed, a recent study shows that under a fair evaluation protocol, called DomainBed, the simple empirical risk minimization (ERM) approach works comparable to or even outperforms previous methods. Unfortunately, simply solving ERM on a complex, non-convex loss function can easily lead to sub-optimal generalizability by seeking sharp minima. In this paper, we theoretically show that finding flat minima results in a smaller domain generalization gap. We also propose a simple yet effective method, named Stochastic Weight Averaging Densely (SWAD), to find flat minima. SWAD finds flatter minima and suffers less from overfitting than does the vanilla SWA by a dense and overfit-aware stochastic weight sampling strategy. SWAD shows state-of-the-art performances on five DG benchmarks, namely PACS, VLCS, OfficeHome, TerraIncognita, and DomainNet, with consistent and large margins of +1.6% averagely on out-of-domain accuracy. We also compare SWAD with conventional generalization methods, such as data augmentation and consistency regularization methods, to verify that the remarkable performance improvements are originated from by seeking flat minima, not from better in-domain generalizability. Last but not least, SWAD is readily adaptable to existing DG methods without modification; the combination of SWAD and an existing DG method further improves DG performances. Source code is available at https://github.com/khanrc/swad.

Real-world model deployments demand strong performance on narrow domains where data is often scarce. Typically, practitioners finetune models to specialize them, but this risks overfitting to the domain and forgetting general knowledge. We study a simple strategy, specialized pretraining (SPT), where a small domain dataset, typically reserved for finetuning, is repeated starting from pretraining as a fraction of the total tokens. Across three specialized domains (ChemPile, MusicPile, and ProofPile), SPT improves domain performance and preserves general capabilities after finetuning compared to standard pretraining. In our experiments, SPT reduces the pretraining tokens needed to reach a given domain performance by up to 1.75x. These gains grow when the target domain is underrepresented in the pretraining corpus: on domains far from web text, a 1B SPT model outperforms a 3B standard pretrained model. Beyond these empirical gains, we derive overfitting scaling laws to guide practitioners in selecting the optimal domain-data repetition for a given pretraining compute budget. Our observations reveal the finetuner's fallacy: while finetuning may appear to be the cheapest path to domain adaptation, introducing specialized domain data during pretraining stretches its utility. SPT yields better specialized domain performance (via reduced overfitting across repeated exposures) and better general domain performance (via reduced forgetting during finetuning), ultimately achieving stronger results with fewer parameters and less total compute when amortized over inference. To get the most out of domain data, incorporate it as early in training as possible.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Reconstructing subsurface ocean dynamics, such as vertical velocity fields, from incomplete surface observations poses a critical challenge in Earth science, a field long hampered by the lack of standardized, analysis-ready benchmarks. To systematically address this issue and catalyze research, we first build and release KD48, a high-resolution ocean dynamics benchmark derived from petascale simulations and curated with expert-driven denoising. Building on this benchmark, we introduce VISION, a novel reconstruction paradigm based on Dynamic Prompting designed to tackle the core problem of missing data in real-world observations. The essence of VISION lies in its ability to generate a visual prompt on-the-fly from any available subset of observations, which encodes both data availability and the ocean's physical state. More importantly, we design a State-conditioned Prompting module that efficiently injects this prompt into a universal backbone, endowed with geometry- and scale-aware operators, to guide its adaptive adjustment of computational strategies. This mechanism enables VISION to precisely handle the challenges posed by varying input combinations. Extensive experiments on the KD48 benchmark demonstrate that VISION not only substantially outperforms state-of-the-art models but also exhibits strong generalization under extreme data missing scenarios. By providing a high-quality benchmark and a robust model, our work establishes a solid infrastructure for ocean science research under data uncertainty. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/VISION.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Object detectors have achieved remarkable performance in many applications; however, these deep learning models are typically designed under the i.i.d. assumption, meaning they are trained and evaluated on data sampled from the same (source) distribution. In real-world deployment, however, target distributions often differ from source data, leading to substantial performance degradation. Domain Generalisation (DG) seeks to bridge this gap by enabling models to generalise to Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data without access to target distributions during training, enhancing robustness to unseen conditions. In this work, we examine the generalisability and robustness of state-of-the-art object detectors under real-world distribution shifts, focusing particularly on spatial domain shifts. Despite the need, a standardised benchmark dataset specifically designed for assessing object detection under realistic DG scenarios is currently lacking. To address this, we introduce Real-World Distribution Shifts (RWDS), a suite of three novel DG benchmarking datasets that focus on humanitarian and climate change applications. These datasets enable the investigation of domain shifts across (i) climate zones and (ii) various disasters and geographic regions. To our knowledge, these are the first DG benchmarking datasets tailored for object detection in real-world, high-impact contexts. We aim for these datasets to serve as valuable resources for evaluating the robustness and generalisation of future object detection models. Our datasets and code are available at https://github.com/RWGAI/RWDS.

Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging, as models must adapt to variations in parameters such as coefficients, forcing terms, and boundary conditions. Data-driven neural solvers either train on data sampled from the PDE parameters distribution in the hope that the model generalizes to new instances or rely on gradient-based adaptation and meta-learning to implicitly encode the dynamics from observations. This often comes with increased inference complexity. Inspired by the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we introduce Zebra, a novel generative auto-regressive transformer designed to solve parametric PDEs without requiring gradient adaptation at inference. By leveraging in-context information during both pre-training and inference, Zebra dynamically adapts to new tasks by conditioning on input sequences that incorporate context trajectories or preceding states. This approach enables Zebra to flexibly handle arbitrarily sized context inputs and supports uncertainty quantification through the sampling of multiple solution trajectories. We evaluate Zebra across a variety of challenging PDE scenarios, demonstrating its adaptability, robustness, and superior performance compared to existing approaches.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

This paper introduces ClimateGPT, a model family of domain-specific large language models that synthesize interdisciplinary research on climate change. We trained two 7B models from scratch on a science-oriented dataset of 300B tokens. For the first model, the 4.2B domain-specific tokens were included during pre-training and the second was adapted to the climate domain after pre-training. Additionally, ClimateGPT-7B, 13B and 70B are continuously pre-trained from Llama~2 on a domain-specific dataset of 4.2B tokens. Each model is instruction fine-tuned on a high-quality and human-generated domain-specific dataset that has been created in close cooperation with climate scientists. To reduce the number of hallucinations, we optimize the model for retrieval augmentation and propose a hierarchical retrieval strategy. To increase the accessibility of our model to non-English speakers, we propose to make use of cascaded machine translation and show that this approach can perform comparably to natively multilingual models while being easier to scale to a large number of languages. Further, to address the intrinsic interdisciplinary aspect of climate change we consider different research perspectives. Therefore, the model can produce in-depth answers focusing on different perspectives in addition to an overall answer. We propose a suite of automatic climate-specific benchmarks to evaluate LLMs. On these benchmarks, ClimateGPT-7B performs on par with the ten times larger Llama-2-70B Chat model while not degrading results on general domain benchmarks. Our human evaluation confirms the trends we saw in our benchmarks. All models were trained and evaluated using renewable energy and are released publicly.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Neural operators have become increasingly popular in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) due to their superior capability to capture intricate mappings between function spaces over complex domains. However, the data-hungry nature of operator learning inevitably poses a bottleneck for their widespread applications. At the core of the challenge lies the absence of transferability of neural operators to new geometries. To tackle this issue, we propose operator learning with domain decomposition, a local-to-global framework to solve PDEs on arbitrary geometries. Under this framework, we devise an iterative scheme Schwarz Neural Inference (SNI). This scheme allows for partitioning of the problem domain into smaller subdomains, on which local problems can be solved with neural operators, and stitching local solutions to construct a global solution. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis of the convergence rate and error bound. We conduct extensive experiments on several representative PDEs with diverse boundary conditions and achieve remarkable geometry generalization compared to alternative methods. These analysis and experiments demonstrate the proposed framework's potential in addressing challenges related to geometry generalization and data efficiency.

Extrapolation remains a grand challenge in deep neural networks across all application domains. We propose an operator learning method to solve time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) continuously and with extrapolation in time without any temporal discretization. The proposed method, named Diffusion-inspired Temporal Transformer Operator (DiTTO), is inspired by latent diffusion models and their conditioning mechanism, which we use to incorporate the temporal evolution of the PDE, in combination with elements from the transformer architecture to improve its capabilities. Upon training, DiTTO can make inferences in real-time. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the temperature around the globe for several years, and also in modeling hypersonic flows around a double-cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal-bundling and sub-sampling and demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals as well as zero-shot super-resolution in time.

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

In this paper, we tackle the problem of domain shift. Most existing methods perform training on multiple source domains using a single model, and the same trained model is used on all unseen target domains. Such solutions are sub-optimal as each target domain exhibits its own specialty, which is not adapted. Furthermore, expecting single-model training to learn extensive knowledge from multiple source domains is counterintuitive. The model is more biased toward learning only domain-invariant features and may result in negative knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose a novel framework for unsupervised test-time adaptation, which is formulated as a knowledge distillation process to address domain shift. Specifically, we incorporate Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) as teachers, where each expert is separately trained on different source domains to maximize their specialty. Given a test-time target domain, a small set of unlabeled data is sampled to query the knowledge from MoE. As the source domains are correlated to the target domains, a transformer-based aggregator then combines the domain knowledge by examining the interconnection among them. The output is treated as a supervision signal to adapt a student prediction network toward the target domain. We further employ meta-learning to enforce the aggregator to distill positive knowledge and the student network to achieve fast adaptation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art and validates the effectiveness of each proposed component. Our code is available at https://github.com/n3il666/Meta-DMoE.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models now surpass state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems, but training and operating these models at high spatial resolution remains computationally expensive. We present a modular framework that decouples forecasting from spatial resolution by applying learned generative super-resolution as a post-processing step to coarse-resolution forecast trajectories. We formulate super-resolution as a stochastic inverse problem, using a residual formulation to preserve large-scale structure while reconstructing unresolved variability. The model is trained with flow matching exclusively on reanalysis data and is applied to global medium-range forecasts. We evaluate (i) design consistency by re-coarsening super-resolved forecasts and comparing them to the original coarse trajectories, and (ii) high-resolution forecast quality using standard ensemble verification metrics and spectral diagnostics. Results show that super-resolution preserves large-scale structure and variance after re-coarsening, introduces physically consistent small-scale variability, and achieves competitive probabilistic forecast skill at 0.25° resolution relative to an operational ensemble baseline, while requiring only a modest additional training cost compared with end-to-end high-resolution forecasting.

Recent advancements in operator-type neural networks have shown promising results in approximating the solutions of spatiotemporal Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). However, these neural networks often entail considerable training expenses, and may not always achieve the desired accuracy required in many scientific and engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a new Spatiotemporal Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) that learns maps between Bochner spaces, and a new learning framework to address these issues. This new paradigm leverages wisdom from traditional numerical PDE theory and techniques to refine the pipeline of commonly adopted end-to-end neural operator training and evaluations. Specifically, in the learning problems for the turbulent flow modeling by the Navier-Stokes Equations (NSE), the proposed architecture initiates the training with a few epochs for SFNO, concluding with the freezing of most model parameters. Then, the last linear spectral convolution layer is fine-tuned without the frequency truncation. The optimization uses a negative Sobolev norm for the first time as the loss in operator learning, defined through a reliable functional-type a posteriori error estimator whose evaluation is almost exact thanks to the Parseval identity. This design allows the neural operators to effectively tackle low-frequency errors while the relief of the de-aliasing filter addresses high-frequency errors. Numerical experiments on commonly used benchmarks for the 2D NSE demonstrate significant improvements in both computational efficiency and accuracy, compared to end-to-end evaluation and traditional numerical PDE solvers.

Invariance learning algorithms that conditionally filter out domain-specific random variables as distractors, do so based only on the data semantics, and not the target domain under evaluation. We show that a provably optimal and sample-efficient way of learning conditional invariances is by relaxing the invariance criterion to be non-commutatively directed towards the target domain. Under domain asymmetry, i.e., when the target domain contains semantically relevant information absent in the source, the risk of the encoder varphi^* that is optimal on average across domains is strictly lower-bounded by the risk of the target-specific optimal encoder Phi^*_tau. We prove that non-commutativity steers the optimization towards Phi^*_tau instead of varphi^*, bringing the H-divergence between domains down to zero, leading to a stricter bound on the target risk. Both our theory and experiments demonstrate that non-commutative invariance (NCI) can leverage source domain samples to meet the sample complexity needs of learning Phi^*_tau, surpassing SOTA invariance learning algorithms for domain adaptation, at times by over 2%, approaching the performance of an oracle. Implementation is available at https://github.com/abhrac/nci.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

We consider two problems of NMT domain adaptation using meta-learning. First, we want to reach domain robustness, i.e., we want to reach high quality on both domains seen in the training data and unseen domains. Second, we want our systems to be adaptive, i.e., making it possible to finetune systems with just hundreds of in-domain parallel sentences. We study the domain adaptability of meta-learning when improving the domain robustness of the model. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, RMLNMT (Robust Meta-Learning Framework for Neural Machine Translation Domain Adaptation), which improves the robustness of existing meta-learning models. More specifically, we show how to use a domain classifier in curriculum learning and we integrate the word-level domain mixing model into the meta-learning framework with a balanced sampling strategy. Experiments on EnglishrightarrowGerman and EnglishrightarrowChinese translation show that RMLNMT improves in terms of both domain robustness and domain adaptability in seen and unseen domains. Our source code is available at https://github.com/lavine-lmu/RMLNMT.

Time domain simulation, i.e., modeling the system's evolution over time, is a crucial tool for studying and enhancing power system stability and dynamic performance. However, these simulations become computationally intractable for renewable-penetrated grids, due to the small simulation time step required to capture renewable energy resources' ultra-fast dynamic phenomena in the range of 1-50 microseconds. This creates a critical need for solutions that are both fast and scalable, posing a major barrier for the stable integration of renewable energy resources and thus climate change mitigation. This paper explores operator learning, a family of machine learning methods that learn mappings between functions, as a surrogate model for these costly simulations. The paper investigates, for the first time, the fundamental concept of simulation time step-invariance, which enables models trained on coarse time steps to generalize to fine-resolution dynamics. Three operator learning methods are benchmarked on a simple test system that, while not incorporating practical complexities of renewable-penetrated grids, serves as a first proof-of-concept to demonstrate the viability of time step-invariance. Models are evaluated on (i) zero-shot super-resolution, where training is performed on a coarse simulation time step and inference is performed at super-resolution, and (ii) generalization between stable and unstable dynamic regimes. This work addresses a key challenge in the integration of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change by benchmarking operator learning methods to model physical systems.

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

The objective of domain generalization (DG) is to enhance the transferability of the model learned from a source domain to unobserved domains. To prevent overfitting to a specific domain, Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) reduces source domain's loss sharpness. Although SAM variants have delivered significant improvements in DG, we highlight that there's still potential for improvement in generalizing to unknown domains through the exploration on data space. This paper introduces an objective rooted in both parameter and data perturbed regions for domain generalization, coined Unknown Domain Inconsistency Minimization (UDIM). UDIM reduces the loss landscape inconsistency between source domain and unknown domains. As unknown domains are inaccessible, these domains are empirically crafted by perturbing instances from the source domain dataset. In particular, by aligning the loss landscape acquired in the source domain to the loss landscape of perturbed domains, we expect to achieve generalization grounded on these flat minima for the unknown domains. Theoretically, we validate that merging SAM optimization with the UDIM objective establishes an upper bound for the true objective of the DG task. In an empirical aspect, UDIM consistently outperforms SAM variants across multiple DG benchmark datasets. Notably, UDIM shows statistically significant improvements in scenarios with more restrictive domain information, underscoring UDIM's generalization capability in unseen domains. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJShin-AI/UDIM.

Consistency is a key requirement of high-quality translation. It is especially important to adhere to pre-approved terminology and adapt to corrected translations in domain-specific projects. Machine translation (MT) has achieved significant progress in the area of domain adaptation. However, in-domain data scarcity is common in translation settings, due to the lack of specialised datasets and terminology, or inconsistency and inaccuracy of available in-domain translations. In such scenarios where there is insufficient in-domain data to fine-tune MT models, producing translations that are consistent with the relevant context is challenging. While real-time adaptation can make use of smaller amounts of in-domain data to improve the translation on the fly, it remains challenging due to supported context limitations and efficiency constraints. Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown interesting capabilities of in-context learning, where they learn to replicate certain input-output text generation patterns, without further fine-tuning. Such capabilities have opened new horizons for domain-specific data augmentation and real-time adaptive MT. This work attempts to address two main relevant questions: 1) in scenarios involving human interaction and continuous feedback, can we employ language models to improve the quality of adaptive MT at inference time? and 2) in the absence of sufficient in-domain data, can we use pre-trained large-scale language models to improve the process of MT domain adaptation?

We present Varda-single-1.0, a medium-range data-driven weather prediction system built for the Alpine domain. It provides hourly deterministic regional forecasts on a mesh of 1 km resolution and global forecasts on a 31 km mesh. The system comprises two independently trained stretched-grid Graph Transformer models with encoder-processor-decoder architecture, developed in the Anemoi framework: a 6-hourly autoregressive forecaster and a temporal downscaler reconstructing hourly forecasts between the forecaster's steps. Its training curriculum includes pre-training on ERA5 reanalysis data, followed by training on a 20-year kilometre-scale regional reanalysis, and finally fine-tuning on operational kilometre-scale analyses. Verified over one year against operational analyses and surface station observations, Varda-single is competitive with or improves on MeteoSwiss' operational numerical weather prediction baselines for most headline scores and variables. It broadly matches the skill of the high-resolution 1 km ICON-CH1-EPS control at lead times up to +33 h and generally outperforms the 2 km ICON-CH2-EPS control at lead times up to +120 h. Despite competitive aggregate scores, Varda-single underestimates some local wind maxima and produces overly smooth convective precipitation fields, consistent with the smoothing associated with squared-error training. To gain insight into the model's behaviour, we investigate three case studies beyond the aggregated headline scores, and find particular weaknesses in Varda-single's representation of local winds over complex terrain. Varda-single represents an important step in the development of high-resolution ML forecasting over complex terrain, in complementing the operational regional numerical weather prediction models of MeteoSwiss with data-driven models and in providing a pretrained model for researchers and user-specific applications.

Plankton recognition provides novel possibilities to study various environmental aspects and an interesting real-world context to develop domain adaptation (DA) methods. Different imaging instruments cause domain shift between datasets hampering the development of general plankton recognition methods. A promising remedy for this is DA allowing to adapt a model trained on one instrument to other instruments. In this paper, we present a new DA dataset called DAPlankton which consists of phytoplankton images obtained with different instruments. Phytoplankton provides a challenging DA problem due to the fine-grained nature of the task and high class imbalance in real-world datasets. DAPlankton consists of two subsets. DAPlankton_LAB contains images of cultured phytoplankton providing a balanced dataset with minimal label uncertainty. DAPlankton_SEA consists of images collected from the Baltic Sea providing challenging real-world data with large intra-class variance and class imbalance. We further present a benchmark comparison of three widely used DA methods.

Acquisition of large datasets for three-dimensional (3D) partial differential equations are usually very expensive. Physics-informed neural operator (PINO) eliminates the high costs associated with generation of training datasets, and shows great potential in a variety of partial differential equations. In this work, we employ physics-informed neural operator, encoding the large-eddy simulation (LES) equations directly into the neural operator for simulating three-dimensional incompressible turbulent flows. We develop the LESnets (Large-Eddy Simulation nets) by adding large-eddy simulation equations to two different data-driven models, including Fourier neural operator (FNO) and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) without using label data. Notably, by leveraging only PDE constraints to learn the spatio-temporal dynamics problem, LESnets retains the computational efficiency of data-driven approaches while obviating the necessity for data. Meanwhile, using large-eddy simulation equations as PDE constraints makes it possible to efficiently predict complex turbulence at coarse grids. We investigate the performance of the LESnets with two standard three-dimensional turbulent flows: decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence and temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer. In the numerical experiments, the LESnets model shows a similar or even better accuracy as compared to traditional large-eddy simulation and data-driven models of FNO and IFNO. Moreover, the well-trained LESnets is significantly faster than traditional LES, and has a similar efficiency as the data-driven FNO and IFNO models. Thus, physics-informed neural operators have a strong potential for 3D nonlinear engineering applications.

Dynamic scene video deblurring aims to remove undesirable blurry artifacts captured during the exposure process. Although previous video deblurring methods have achieved impressive results, they suffer from significant performance drops due to the domain gap between training and testing videos, especially for those captured in real-world scenarios. To address this issue, we propose a domain adaptation scheme based on a blurring model to achieve test-time fine-tuning for deblurring models in unseen domains. Since blurred and sharp pairs are unavailable for fine-tuning during inference, our scheme can generate domain-adaptive training pairs to calibrate a deblurring model for the target domain. First, a Relative Sharpness Detection Module is proposed to identify relatively sharp regions from the blurry input images and regard them as pseudo-sharp images. Next, we utilize a blurring model to produce blurred images based on the pseudo-sharp images extracted during testing. To synthesize blurred images in compliance with the target data distribution, we propose a Domain-adaptive Blur Condition Generation Module to create domain-specific blur conditions for the blurring model. Finally, the generated pseudo-sharp and blurred pairs are used to fine-tune a deblurring model for better performance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve state-of-the-art video deblurring methods, providing performance gains of up to 7.54dB on various real-world video deblurring datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/Jin-Ting-He/DADeblur.

Implicit layer deep learning techniques, like Neural Differential Equations, have become an important modeling framework due to their ability to adapt to new problems automatically. Training a neural differential equation is effectively a search over a space of plausible dynamical systems. However, controlling the computational cost for these models is difficult since it relies on the number of steps the adaptive solver takes. Most prior works have used higher-order methods to reduce prediction timings while greatly increasing training time or reducing both training and prediction timings by relying on specific training algorithms, which are harder to use as a drop-in replacement due to strict requirements on automatic differentiation. In this manuscript, we use internal cost heuristics of adaptive differential equation solvers at stochastic time points to guide the training toward learning a dynamical system that is easier to integrate. We "close the black-box" and allow the use of our method with any adjoint technique for gradient calculations of the differential equation solution. We perform experimental studies to compare our method to global regularization to show that we attain similar performance numbers without compromising the flexibility of implementation on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We develop two sampling strategies to trade off between performance and training time. Our method reduces the number of function evaluations to 0.556-0.733x and accelerates predictions by 1.3-2x.

Recent advancements in diffusion models have revolutionized generative modeling. However, the impressive and vivid outputs they produce often come at the cost of significant model scaling and increased computational demands. Consequently, building personalized diffusion models based on off-the-shelf models has emerged as an appealing alternative. In this paper, we introduce a novel perspective on conditional generation for transferring a pre-trained model. From this viewpoint, we propose *Domain Guidance*, a straightforward transfer approach that leverages pre-trained knowledge to guide the sampling process toward the target domain. Domain Guidance shares a formulation similar to advanced classifier-free guidance, facilitating better domain alignment and higher-quality generations. We provide both empirical and theoretical analyses of the mechanisms behind Domain Guidance. Our experimental results demonstrate its substantial effectiveness across various transfer benchmarks, achieving over a 19.6% improvement in FID and a 23.4% improvement in FD_DINOv2 compared to standard fine-tuning. Notably, existing fine-tuned models can seamlessly integrate Domain Guidance to leverage these benefits, without additional training.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

Sea ice is governed by highly complex, scale-invariant, and anisotropic processes that are challenging to represent in Earth system models. While advanced numerical models have improved our understanding of the sea-ice dynamics, their computational costs often limit their application in ensemble forecasting and climate simulations. Here, we introduce GenSIM, the first generative AI-based pan-Arctic model that predicts the evolution of all relevant key properties, including concentration, thickness, and drift, in a 12-hour window with improved accuracy over deterministic predictions and high computational efficiency, while remaining physically consistent. Trained on a long simulation from a state-of-the-art sea-ice--ocean system, GenSIM robustly reproduces statistics as observed in numerical models and observations, exhibiting brittle-like short-term dynamics while also depicting the long-term sea-ice decline. Driven solely by atmospheric forcings, we attribute GenSIM's emergent extrapolation capabilities to patterns that reflect the long-term impact of the ocean: it seemingly has learned an internal ocean emulator. This ability to infer slowly evolving climate-relevant dynamics from short-term predictions underlines the large potential of generative models to generalise for unseen climates and to encode hidden physics.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to enhance the performance of source-domain pretrained models when tested on unknown shifted target domains. Traditional TTA methods primarily adapt model weights based on target data streams, making model performance sensitive to the amount and order of target data. Recently, diffusion-driven TTA methods have demonstrated strong performance by using an unconditional diffusion model, which is also trained on the source domain to transform target data into synthetic data as a source domain projection. This allows the source model to make predictions without weight adaptation. In this paper, we argue that the domains of the source model and the synthetic data in diffusion-driven TTA methods are not aligned. To adapt the source model to the synthetic domain of the unconditional diffusion model, we introduce a Synthetic-Domain Alignment (SDA) framework to fine-tune the source model with synthetic data. Specifically, we first employ a conditional diffusion model to generate labeled samples, creating a synthetic dataset. Subsequently, we use the aforementioned unconditional diffusion model to add noise to and denoise each sample before fine-tuning. This process mitigates the potential domain gap between the conditional and unconditional models. Extensive experiments across various models and benchmarks demonstrate that SDA achieves superior domain alignment and consistently outperforms existing diffusion-driven TTA methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/SHI-Labs/Diffusion-Driven-Test-Time-Adaptation-via-Synthetic-Domain-Alignment.

Conventional continual pretraining (CPT) for large language model (LLM) domain adaptation often suffers from catastrophic forgetting and limited domain capacity. Existing strategies adopt layer expansion, introducing additional trainable parameters to accommodate new knowledge. However, the uniform expansion and updates still entangle general and domain learning, undermining its effectiveness. Our pilot studies reveal that LLMs exhibit functional specialization, where layers and units differentially encode general-critical capabilities, suggesting that parameter expansion and optimization should be function-aware. We then propose ADEPT, Adaptive Expansion and Dynamic Decoupled Tuning for continual pretraining, a two-stage framework for domain-adaptive CPT. ADEPT first performs General-Competence Guided Selective Layer Expansion, duplicating layers least critical for the general domain to increase representational capacity while minimizing interference with general knowledge. It then applies Adaptive Unit-Wise Decoupled Tuning, disentangling parameter units within expanded layers according to their general-domain importance and assigning asymmetric learning rates to balance knowledge injection and retention. Experiments on mathematical and medical benchmarks show that ADEPT outperforms full-parameter CPT by up to 5.76% on the general domain and 5.58% on the target domain with only 15% of parameters tuned and less than 50% training time. Ablation studies, theoretical analysis, and extended investigations further demonstrate the necessity of targeted expansion and decoupled optimization, providing new principles for efficient and robust domain-adaptive CPT. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/PuppyKnightUniversity/ADEPT

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

Diffusion models have become the go-to method for large-scale generative models in real-world applications. These applications often involve data distributions confined within bounded domains, typically requiring ad-hoc thresholding techniques for boundary enforcement. Reflected diffusion models (Lou23) aim to enhance generalizability by generating the data distribution through a backward process governed by reflected Brownian motion. However, reflected diffusion models may not easily adapt to diverse domains without the derivation of proper diffeomorphic mappings and do not guarantee optimal transport properties. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Reflected Schrodinger Bridge algorithm: an entropy-regularized optimal transport approach tailored for generating data within diverse bounded domains. We derive elegant reflected forward-backward stochastic differential equations with Neumann and Robin boundary conditions, extend divergence-based likelihood training to bounded domains, and explore natural connections to entropic optimal transport for the study of approximate linear convergence - a valuable insight for practical training. Our algorithm yields robust generative modeling in diverse domains, and its scalability is demonstrated in real-world constrained generative modeling through standard image benchmarks.

Information on standing dead trees is important for understanding forest ecosystem functioning and resilience but has been lacking over large geographic regions. Climate change has caused large-scale tree mortality events that can remain undetected due to limited data. In this study, we propose a novel method for segmenting standing dead trees using aerial multispectral orthoimages. Because access to annotated datasets has been a significant problem in forest remote sensing due to the need for forest expertise, we introduce a method for domain transfer by leveraging domain adaptation to learn a transformation from a source domain X to target domain Y. In this Image-to-Image translation task, we aim to utilize available annotations in the target domain by pre-training a segmentation network. When images from a new study site without annotations are introduced (source domain X), these images are transformed into the target domain. Then, transfer learning is applied by inferring the pre-trained network on domain-adapted images. In addition to investigating the feasibility of current domain adaptation approaches for this objective, we propose a novel approach called the Attention-guided Domain Adaptation Network (ADA-Net) with enhanced contrastive learning. Accordingly, the ADA-Net approach provides new state-of-the-art domain adaptation performance levels outperforming existing approaches. We have evaluated the proposed approach using two datasets from Finland and the US. The USA images are converted to the Finland domain, and we show that the synthetic USA2Finland dataset exhibits similar characteristics to the Finland domain images. The software implementation is shared at https://github.com/meteahishali/ADA-Net. The data is publicly available at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/meteahishali/aerial-imagery-for-standing-dead-tree-segmentation.

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Corss-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corrsponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong Cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench and ProbTS, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

We introduce Tadpole, a novel foundation model for three-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) that addresses key challenges in transferability, scalability to high dimensionality, and multi-functionality. Tadpole is pre-trained as an autoencoder on synthetic 3D PDE data generated by an efficient online data-generation framework. This enables large-scale, diverse training without storage or I/O overhead, demonstrated by scaling to an equivalent of hundreds of terabytes of training data. By autoencoding single-channel spatial crops, Tadpole learns rich and transferable representations across heterogeneous physical systems with varying numbers of state variables and spatial resolutions. Although pre-trained solely as an autoencoder, Tadpole can be efficiently applied for multiple downstream tasks beyond reconstruction, including dynamics learning and generative modeling. For dynamics learning, we propose a novel parameter-efficient fine-tuning strategy that integrates low-rank adaptation, latent-space transformations, and reintroduced skip connections, achieving accurate temporal modeling with a minimal number of trainable parameters. Tadpole demonstrates strong fine-tuning performance across various downstream tasks, highlighting its versatility and effectiveness as a foundation model for 3D PDE learning. Source code and pre-trained weights of Tadpole are available at https://github.com/tum-pbs/tadpole

This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at fixed locations, which are called NWP grid points, by analyzing previous atmospheric states and newly acquired Earth observations. However, the shifting locations of observations and the surrounding meteorological context induce complex, dynamic spatial correlations that are difficult for traditional NWP systems to capture, since they rely on strict statistical and physical formulations. To handle complicated spatial correlations, which change dynamically, we employ a spatiotemporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) with structure learning. However, structure learning has an inherent limitation that this can cause structural information loss and over-smoothing problem by generating excessive edges. To solve this problem, we regulate edge sampling by adaptively determining node degrees and considering the spatial distances between NWP grid points and observations. We validated the effectiveness of the proposed method (CloudNine-v2) using real-world atmospheric state and observation data from East Asia, achieving up to 15\% reductions in RMSE over existing STGNN models. Even in areas with high atmospheric variability, CloudNine-v2 consistently outperformed baselines with and without structure learning.

Diffusion-based generative processes, formulated as differential equation solving, frequently balance computational speed with sample quality. Our theoretical investigation of ODE- and SDE-based solvers reveals complementary weaknesses: ODE solvers accumulate irreducible gradient error along deterministic trajectories, while SDE methods suffer from amplified discretization errors when the step budget is limited. Building upon this insight, we introduce AdaSDE, a novel single-step SDE solver that aims to unify the efficiency of ODEs with the error resilience of SDEs. Specifically, we introduce a single per-step learnable coefficient, estimated via lightweight distillation, which dynamically regulates the error correction strength to accelerate diffusion sampling. Notably, our framework can be integrated with existing solvers to enhance their capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance: at 5 NFE, AdaSDE achieves FID scores of 4.18 on CIFAR-10, 8.05 on FFHQ and 6.96 on LSUN Bedroom. Codes are available in https://github.com/WLU-wry02/AdaSDE.