Daily Papers

Online Surgical Phase Recognition (SPR) models can reach high frame-wise accuracy, yet their predictions often lack temporal stability, fragmenting workflow understanding and reducing the reliability of downstream assistance. We show that this instability is not random noise but arises from two mechanisms: early misclassifications corrupt temporal feature states and propagate forward to form error cascades, and phase transitions follow evidence-accumulation dynamics whereas most online SPR systems rely on memoryless frame-wise decisions, making them sensitive to transient confidence fluctuations. We propose a unified Train-Inference-Evaluation framework that explicitly stabilizes temporal inference dynamics using model-agnostic, plug-and-play components. For training, the Temporal Error-Cascade (TEC) loss suppresses error onset and mitigates forward error propagation by stabilizing temporal feature evolution. For inference, the Evidence-Gated Transition Predictor (EGTP) enforces evidence-driven state transitions, allowing phase changes only when accumulated evidence exceeds a confidence boundary. For evaluation, we introduce the Temporal Fragmentation Index (TFI), a reliability-aware metric that quantifies instability-induced temporal disagreement beyond conventional frame-wise and token-based measures. Experiments on Cholec80 and AutoLaparo across three representative backbones show that the proposed framework substantially improves temporal stability and reduces prediction fragmentation, while maintaining or modestly improving frame-wise performance.

Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of reliable early warning systems. Conventional statistical and spectral indicators, such as increasing variance, tend to fail under realistic conditions of limited data and correlated noise, whereas existing deep learning classifiers do not extrapolate beyond their training data distribution. In this work, we introduce TipPFN, an in-context learning (ICL) framework that uses a prior-data fitted network to infer a system's proximity to a critical transition. Trained on our novel synthetic data generator, which is based on canonical bifurcation scenarios coupled to diverse, randomized stochastic dynamics, TipPFN flexibly capitalizes on contexts of various sizes, complexity and dimensionalities. We demonstrate robust, state-of-the-art early detection of critical transitions in previously unseen tipping regimes, sim-to-real examples, and real-world observations in both ICL and zero-shot settings.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

Change data synthesis provides a cost-effective solution for expanding training data and improving the performance of change detection models. However, existing synthesis methods typically rely on handcrafted rules to simulate changes, where limited coverage of class transitions restricts the diversity of synthesized data, while predefined transition designs limit their flexibility in accommodating varied change types. In this work, we introduce KnowChange, a knowledge-guided change data synthesis framework that leverages pretrained vision-language models as knowledge sources to reason about plausible change locations and class transitions from pre-change scenes and desired change types. By integrating knowledge-guided change simulation with generalizable synthesis models, KnowChange enables flexible synthesis of diverse change types within a unified framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that KnowChange-generated data consistently outperforms existing synthetic datasets in both synthetic-to-real transfer and synthetic data augmentation, despite being generated at a compact scale. Further analyses show that the knowledge-guided change simulation can be seamlessly integrated into existing synthesis pipelines and enhance the downstream utility of synthesized data.

Large pretrained models, coupled with fine-tuning, are slowly becoming established as the dominant architecture in machine learning. Even though these models offer impressive performance, their practical application is often limited by the prohibitive amount of resources required for every inference. Early-exiting dynamic neural networks (EDNN) circumvent this issue by allowing a model to make some of its predictions from intermediate layers (i.e., early-exit). Training an EDNN architecture is challenging as it consists of two intertwined components: the gating mechanism (GM) that controls early-exiting decisions and the intermediate inference modules (IMs) that perform inference from intermediate representations. As a result, most existing approaches rely on thresholding confidence metrics for the gating mechanism and strive to improve the underlying backbone network and the inference modules. Although successful, this approach has two fundamental shortcomings: 1) the GMs and the IMs are decoupled during training, leading to a train-test mismatch; and 2) the thresholding gating mechanism introduces a positive bias into the predictive probabilities, making it difficult to readily extract uncertainty information. We propose a novel architecture that connects these two modules. This leads to significant performance improvements on classification datasets and enables better uncertainty characterization capabilities.

Long-horizon search requires agents to acquire relevant evidence and integrate it into an evolving research state. Existing methods maintain research states to guide exploration or assign turn-level progress signals, yet grounding these signals in explicit, attributable state changes remains underexplored. We introduce ClueFlow, which learns long-horizon search from attributed research-state transitions. ClueFlow constructs Source-State-Final attribution chains that connect evidence-acquiring browser actions, Evidence and Candidate updates, and the final answer supported by those updates. During search, ClueFlow records typed state changes and potentially supporting browser actions, then applies gold-conditioned semantic validation and source tracing after execution. We use this attribution to guide both supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. During SFT, attribution selects which decisions receive supervision with their original interaction contexts. During Turn-PPO, the same attribution augments outcome-based turn advantages with credit assigned along the Source-State-Final chains. Transition-level validation also recovers useful supervision from gold-consistent state changes in trajectories with incorrect final answers. We evaluate ClueFlow across two Qwen backbones and four search benchmarks spanning live-web and fixed-corpus settings, observing consistent gains from SFT and further improvements from PPO. With Qwen3.5-35B-A3B, ClueFlow achieves 60.0% accuracy on BrowseComp and 72.0% on BrowseComp-Plus. In controlled BrowseComp-Plus experiments, attribution-guided SFT matches all-turn exact-context SFT using about 30% of the training tokens, while attribution-guided PPO outperforms outcome-only PPO by 4.1 pp. These results demonstrate that state-transition attribution enables efficient supervision and effective credit assignment for long-horizon search agents.

Predicting the future impact of a newly published paper is challenging because it must be inferred from heterogeneous evidence available at publication time. Existing approaches often rely on a single source of information or combine multiple sources without accounting for their different predictive roles. In this paper, we present LLM4Impact, an evidence-aware method for scientific impact prediction that learns to represent, integrate, and calibrate heterogeneous information. LLM4Impact combines semantic, graph, LLM, and temporal representations, and injects graph information into a frozen LLM through continuous prefix tokens. A context aware gating mechanism adaptively weights different evidence, while a separate calibration module accounts for domain and temporal variation in citation scales. We further construct a large-scale benchmark dataset with 2 million papers, leakage-safe point-in-time heterogeneous ego graphs, temporal splits, and both year-level and month-level citation targets. Experiments show that LLM4Impact consistently outperforms strong semantic, graph, and LLM based baselines, with a 10.13% reduction in year RMSE on the in distribution test set and a 6.87% reduction under out-of-domain distribution. Our results reveal that the value of such evidence is context dependent: different papers benefit from different sources, while domain and publication time affect how evidence translates into citations. This finding motivates adaptive evidence selection and context-conditioned calibration rather than simply richer representations. We will release our code, benchmark, and an interactive web demonstration upon publication.

World models enable agents to anticipate the effects of their actions by internalizing environment dynamics. In enterprise systems, however, these dynamics are often defined by tenant-specific business logic that varies across deployments and evolves over time, making models trained on historical transitions brittle under deployment shift. We ask a question the world-models literature has not addressed: when the rules can be read at inference time, does an agent still need to learn them? We argue, and demonstrate empirically, that in settings where transition dynamics are configurable and readable, runtime discovery complements offline training by grounding predictions in the active system instance. We propose enterprise discovery agents, which recover relevant transition dynamics at runtime by reading the system's configuration rather than relying solely on internalized representations. We introduce CascadeBench, a reasoning-focused benchmark for enterprise cascade prediction that adopts the evaluation methodology of World of Workflows on diverse synthetic environments, and use it together with deployment-shift evaluation to show that offline-trained world models can perform well in-distribution but degrade as dynamics change, whereas discovery-based agents are more robust under shift by grounding their predictions in the current instance. Our findings suggest that, in configurable enterprise environments, agents should not rely solely on fixed internalized dynamics, but should incorporate mechanisms for discovering relevant transition logic at runtime.

Evidence-grounded reasoning requires more than attaching retrieved text to a prediction: a model should make decisions that depend on whether the provided evidence supports the target claim. In practice, this often fails because supervision is weak, evidence is only loosely tied to the claim, and evaluation does not test evidence dependence directly. We introduce case-grounded evidence verification, a general framework in which a model receives a local case context, external evidence, and a structured claim, and must decide whether the evidence supports the claim for that case. Our key contribution is a supervision construction procedure that generates explicit support examples together with semantically controlled non-support examples, including counterfactual wrong-state and topic-related negatives, without manual evidence annotation. We instantiate the framework in radiology and train a standard verifier on the resulting support task. The learned verifier substantially outperforms both case-only and evidence-only baselines, remains strong under correct evidence, and collapses when evidence is removed or swapped, indicating genuine evidence dependence. This behavior transfers across unseen evidence articles and an external case distribution, though performance degrades under evidence-source shift and remains sensitive to backbone choice. Overall, the results suggest that a major bottleneck in evidence grounding is not only model capacity, but the lack of supervision that encodes the causal role of evidence.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Unsupervised video Object-Centric Learning (OCL) is promising as it enables object-level scene representation and dynamics modeling as we humans do. Mainstream video OCL methods adopt a recurrent architecture: An aggregator aggregates current video frame into object features, termed slots, under some queries; A transitioner transits current slots to queries for the next frame. This is an effective architecture but all existing implementations both (i1) neglect to incorporate next frame features, the most informative source for query prediction, and (i2) fail to learn transition dynamics, the knowledge essential for query prediction. To address these issues, we propose Random Slot-Feature pair for learning Query prediction (RandSF.Q): (t1) We design a new transitioner to incorporate both slots and features, which provides more information for query prediction; (t2) We train the transitioner to predict queries from slot-feature pairs randomly sampled from available recurrences, which drives it to learn transition dynamics. Experiments on scene representation demonstrate that our method surpass existing video OCL methods significantly, e.g., up to 10 points on object discovery, setting new state-of-the-art. Such superiority also benefits downstream tasks like dynamics modeling. Our core source code and training logs are available as the supplement.

AI research often requires decisions before future evidence exists: which bottleneck to attack, which direction to pursue, or where a project should be positioned. We introduce ForeSci, a temporally controlled benchmark for evaluating whether LLM agents can make such forward-looking research judgements from historical evidence. ForeSci contains 500 tasks across four fast-moving AI domains and four decision families. Each task is paired with a cutoff-aligned offline knowledge base; post-cutoff papers are hidden during generation and used only for validation. To avoid random future-event prediction, tasks are derived from pre-cutoff taxonomy branches and evidence signals, and answer-generation backbones are selected to precede the task cutoffs. We evaluate native LLMs, Hybrid RAG, and three research-agent adaptations across four backbones. Results show that explicit evidence organization improves traceability and factual support, but gains depend strongly on the decision family. Diagnostics reveal a recurring evidence-decision decoupling: agents may cite relevant evidence while forecasting the wrong research object. ForeSci turns forward-looking AI research judgement into a controlled benchmark for evaluating research agents as decision-making systems.

Scientific discovery is not only answer generation but revision of the representational regime in which evidence, artifacts, operations, and verifiers are typed. We develop a category-theoretic account of agentic discovery for materials science. In a fixed regime b with schema category S_b, the system state is a copresheaf I_t: S_b -> Set, and provenance is the category of elements \int_{S_b} I_t. Fixed-regime operation is an update on such states, endofunctorial only when provenance-preserving refinements are specified and preserved. Discovery is instead a verified regime transition u: S_b -> S_b': old artifacts are preserved, transported by the left Kan extension Lan_u I_t, and compared with the post-transition state to identify residual content beyond functorial transport. This separates retrieval, search, and discovery without subjective novelty. We instantiate the framework in two systems. In Builder/Breaker, a protein-mechanics world model is revised under a Minimum Description Length gate; the accepted law expresses within-chain flexibility as all-mode elastic compliance conditioned by slow collective-mode participation, or mode-conditioned compliance. In CategoryScienceClaw, typed skills, artifacts, open needs, workflow mutation, gates, stress tests, and public discourse become a proof-carrying knowledge-computation graph. A fiber-network example records candidate models, rejected alternatives, an AIC gate, perturbation tests, and an accepted orientation-tensor anisotropic stiffness surrogate over an isotropic fiber-count descriptor. Together, the cases show how category theory can be both a mathematical language for discovery and an engineering specification for self-revising AI discovery systems.

In longitudinal clinical practice, every chest X-ray is read in the context of the patients prior exam, and much of what the radiologist communicates is the change from one visit to the next. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first training-free best-of-N sampling scheme for pre-trained chest X-ray report generators that is explicitly aware of this longitudinal prior to current transition. We call it transition-aware best-of-N sampling, each report is split into sentences and embedded into an unordered set in Rd; each (prior, current) pair is reduced to a fixed-dim directional vector via a set-to-set distance designed to encode the change between the two sets; and candidates are scored by cosine distance from their candidate transition vector to a cached bank of ground-truth training transition vectors, aggregated as min or kNN. We instantiate the framework with four directional set distances (mean-shift, novelty residual, directed-Hausdorff anchor, and cost-weighted optimal transport) and evaluate on a multi-visit AP-PA cohort, running inference under three prompts on three vision-language generators. Transition-aware best-of-N outperforms random selection across the board, with the largest relative gains on the Impression section.

Chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation often requires integrating visual findings with task-specific evidence rather than relying on direct visual recognition alone. While tool-augmented medical agents can supply such evidence via external modules, they often lack explicit mechanisms for learning when auxiliary evidence is needed and for preventing inapplicable quantitative evidence from entering diagnostic reasoning. To address this, we propose X-Ragent, a post-training framework for tool-augmented reinforcement learning that decouples learned auxiliary-evidence seeking from validity-gated quantitative measurement acquisition for evidence-grounded CXR reasoning. We construct Rad-CoT, a 7.7K-sample corpus combining causally ordered tool-augmented trajectories with report-style diagnostic reasoning, and use it to initialize Qwen3-VL-8B via agentic supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We then optimize the policy with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) using an accuracy-gated reward that applies process-level terms for measurement consistency and auxiliary-tool cost only to correct trajectories, preventing plausible process behavior from compensating for an incorrect diagnosis. Across three CXR benchmarks, X-Ragent achieves the strongest results, including an 8.6-point improvement on the fully held-out ChestAgentBench. By seeking evidence selectively and admitting only valid measurements, X-Ragent supports more faithful and evidence-grounded CXR reasoning.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

A fundamental dilemma in generative modeling persists: iterative diffusion models achieve outstanding fidelity, but at a significant computational cost, while efficient few-step alternatives are constrained by a hard quality ceiling. This conflict between generation steps and output quality arises from restrictive training objectives that focus exclusively on either infinitesimal dynamics (PF-ODEs) or direct endpoint prediction. We address this challenge by introducing an exact, continuous-time dynamics equation that analytically defines state transitions across any finite time interval. This leads to a novel generative paradigm, Transition Models (TiM), which adapt to arbitrary-step transitions, seamlessly traversing the generative trajectory from single leaps to fine-grained refinement with more steps. Despite having only 865M parameters, TiM achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing leading models such as SD3.5 (8B parameters) and FLUX.1 (12B parameters) across all evaluated step counts. Importantly, unlike previous few-step generators, TiM demonstrates monotonic quality improvement as the sampling budget increases. Additionally, when employing our native-resolution strategy, TiM delivers exceptional fidelity at resolutions up to 4096x4096.

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning enables large language models (LLMs) to break down complex problems into interpretable intermediate steps, significantly enhancing model transparency and performance in reasoning tasks. However, conventional CoT methods rely on heuristic sampling without structured modeling of reasoning transitions, constraining their ability to systematically explore and discover diverse and effective reasoning trajectories. In this work, we introduce CTRLS, a framework that formulates CoT reasoning as a Markov decision process (MDP) with latent state transitions, enabling principled and state-aware exploration via distributional reinforcement learning. By modelling reasoning actions as explicit probability distributions in latent space, our approach explicitly models epistemic uncertainty, facilitating robust exploration of the reasoning space. As part of our framework, we introduce an on-policy reinforcement learning strategy incorporating epsilon-greedy exploration and entropy-based regularization to iteratively refine latent state transitions without requiring additional fine-tuning of the underlying LLM. Theoretical analyses provide evidence lower bounds (ELBO), theoretically grounding our transition-aware modeling of latent reasoning dynamics. Further experiments demonstrate improvements in reasoning accuracy, diversity, and exploration efficiency across benchmark reasoning tasks.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in video understanding, yet their reliance on retrospective summarization and text-centric priors often limits their ability to bridge unobserved causal transitions when applied to Video Event Prediction (VEP). To address this, we propose VepAgent, an agentic framework that integrates causal-transition reasoning with tool-augmented reinforcement learning (RL) for robust VEP. Unlike prior methods that passively project future trajectories from historical dependencies, our approach explicitly models the logical progression from terminal observed states to future events. Specifically, we first construct futurebench-4K, a high-quality chain-of-thought dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) that effectively bridges the causal-logic gap by structuring the deduction of unobserved intermediate states. Subsequently, we develop a diagnostic tool library integrating state tracking, frame retrieval, and region magnification, enabling the agent to dynamically augment reasoning with external tools to recover missing spatio-temporal evidence and resolve visual ambiguities during inference. Moreover, we propose a composite reward mechanism that jointly optimizes prediction accuracy, causal coherence, and reliable prior, compelling the agent to rely on genuine visual grounding rather than superficial textual similarities. Extensive evaluations on FutureBench and NEPBench datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming larger MLLMs and validating the empirical effectiveness of our agentic, future-oriented reasoning paradigm.

Large language models (LLMs) and agentic systems have shown promise for clinical decision support, but existing works largely assume that evidence has already been curated and handed to the model. Real-world clinical workflows instead require agents to actively seek, iteratively plan, and synthesize multimodal evidence from heterogeneous sources. In this paper, we introduce ClinSeekAgent, an automated agentic framework for dynamic multimodal evidence seeking that shifts the paradigm from passive evidence consumption to active evidence acquisition. Given only a clinical query and access to raw data sources, ClinSeekAgent gathers evidence by querying medical knowledge bases, navigating raw EHRs, and invoking medical imaging tools; refines its hypotheses as new information emerges; and integrates the collected evidence into grounded clinical decisions. ClinSeekAgent serves both as an inference-time agent for frontier LLMs and as a training-time pipeline for distilling high-quality agent trajectories into compact open-source models. To validate its inference-time effectiveness, we construct ClinSeek-Bench, which pairs Curated Input reasoning from fixed pre-selected evidence with Automated Evidence-Seeking over raw clinical data. On text-only EHR tasks, ClinSeekAgent improves Claude Opus 4.6 from 60.0 to 63.2 overall F1 and MiniMax M2.5 from 43.1 to 47.3, with positive risk-prediction gains in 7 out of 9 evaluated host models. On multimodal tasks, ClinSeekAgent improves Claude Opus 4.6 from 47.5 to 62.6 (+15.1); all evaluated models improve across the three CXR-related task groups. We further validate ClinSeekAgent as a training pipeline by distilling agentic evidence-seeking trajectories into ClinSeek-35B-A3B, which achieves 34.0 average F1 on existing AgentEHR-Bench, improving over its Qwen3.5-35B-A3B baseline by +11.9 points and approaching Claude Opus 4.6.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for forecasting scientific progress under controlled knowledge constraints. We present CUSP (Cutoff-conditioned Unseen Scientific Progress), a multi-disciplinary and event-level benchmark that evaluates scientific forecasting in AI systems through feasibility assessment, mechanistic reasoning, generative solution design, and temporal prediction. Across 4,760 scientific events, we observe systematic and domain-dependent limitations in current frontier models. While models can identify plausible research directions from competing candidates, they fail to reliably predict whether scientific advances will be realized and systematically misestimate when they will occur. Performance is highly heterogeneous across domains, with the timing of AI progress more predictable than advances in biology, chemistry, and physics. Performance is largely insensitive to whether events occur before or after the training cutoff, suggesting these limitations cannot be explained solely by knowledge exposure in training data. Under controlled information access, additional pre-cutoff knowledge improves performance but does not close the gap to full-information settings, which becomes more pronounced for high-citation advances. Models also exhibit systematic overconfidence and strong response biases, indicating unreliable uncertainty estimation. Taken together, current AI systems fall short as predictive tools for scientific progress. Access to prior knowledge does not translate into reliable forecasting, and performance benefits more from post-event information than from forward-looking prediction.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

Large Reasoning Language Models (LRLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities on complex tasks by utilizing long Chain-of-Thought reasoning. However, they are prone to overthinking, which generates redundant reasoning steps that degrade both performance and efficiency. Recently, early-exit strategies are proposed to mitigate overthinking by dynamically and adaptively terminating redundant reasoning. However, current early-exit methods either introduce extra training overhead by relying on proxy models or limit inference throughput due to the frequent content switching between reasoning and generating probing answers. Moreover, most early-exit methods harm LRLMs performance due to over-truncation. Our insight stems from an observation: overthinking often causes LRLMs to deviate from the correct reasoning path, which is frequently accompanied by high-entropy transition tokens. Given this, we propose an early-exit method deeply coupled with the native reasoning process, which leverages the path deviation index as a dedicated monitoring metric for the frequent occurrence of high-entropy transition tokens to dynamically detect and terminate overthinking trajectories. We conduct experiments across multiple benchmarks using LRLMs of different types and scales, and the results indicate that our method delivers the largest performance improvement over vanilla CoT compared to existing early-exit methods.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Financial time-series forecasting is a high-stakes problem where regime shifts and shocks make point-accurate yet overconfident models dangerous. We propose Uncertainty-Gated Generative Modeling (UGGM), which treats uncertainty as an internal control signal that gates (i) representation via gated reparameterization, (ii) propagation via similarity and confidence routing, and (iii) generation via uncertainty-controlled predictive distributions, together with uncertainty-driven regularization and calibration to curb miscalibration. Instantiated on Weak Innovation AutoEncoder (WIAE-GPF), our UG-WIAE-GPF significantly improves risk-sensitive forecasting, delivering a 63.5\% MSE reduction on NYISO (0.3508 rightarrow 0.1281), with improved robustness under shock intervals (mSE: 0.2739 rightarrow 0.1748).

We prove theoretically that generalization improves not only through data scaling but also by compressing internal representations. To operationalize this insight, we introduce the Information Bottleneck Language Modeling (IBLM) objective, which reframes language modeling as a constrained optimization problem: minimizing representation entropy subject to optimal prediction performance. Empirically, we observe an emergent memorization-compression cycle during LLM pretraining, evidenced by oscillation positive/negative gradient alignment between cross-entropy and Matrix-Based Entropy (MBE), a measure of representation entropy. This pattern closely mirrors the predictive-compressive trade-off prescribed by IBLM and also parallels the biological alternation between awake learning and sleep consolidation. Motivated by this observation, we propose Gated Phase Transition (GAPT), a training algorithm that adaptively switches between memorization and compression phases. When applied to GPT-2 pretraining on FineWeb dataset, GAPT reduces MBE by 50% and improves cross-entropy by 4.8%. GAPT improves OOD generalizatino by 35% in a pretraining task on arithmetic multiplication. In a setting designed to simulate catastrophic forgetting, GAPT reduces interference by compressing and separating representations, achieving a 97% improvement in separation - paralleling the functional role of sleep consolidation.

Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform. While world models (WMs) offer a paradigm for generative prediction, existing medical applications remain limited. Existing methods often rely on stochastic diffusion models, focusing on visual reconstruction rather than causal, physiological transitions. Furthermore, in medical domain, models like MeWM typically ignore patient-specific temporal and clinical contexts and lack a feedback mechanism to link predictions to treatment decisions. To address these gaps, we introduce CLARITY, a medical world model that forecasts disease evolution directly within a structured latent space. It explicitly integrates time intervals (temporal context) and patient-specific data (clinical context) to model treatment-conditioned progression as a smooth, interpretable trajectory, and thus generate physiologically faithful, individualized treatment plans. Finally, CLARITY introduces a novel prediction-to-decision framework, translating latent rollouts into transparent, actionable recommendations. CLARITY demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in treatment planning. On the MU-Glioma-Post dataset, our approach outperforms recent MeWM by 12\%, and significantly surpasses all other medical-specific large language models.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate because reviews and research ideas lack uniquely verifiable outcomes. We introduce Research Attention Prediction (RAP), a rolling benchmark covering 278 AI/ML fields and 1,390 episodes. At each cut-off, an LLM agent searches a temporally restricted arXiv corpus and predicts the next six months' paper shares across eight frozen research directions. Search generally helps, but all four diagnostic models perform worse than an exact-count exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) baseline in compositional accuracy. We identify two linked bottlenecks. Under cumulative-history access, State carry-forward outperforms direct Forecast for all four diagnostic models; frozen-evidence replay links a shared component of this reversal to Forecast-oriented policies retrieving a smaller share of recent evidence. Even with exact historical activity, future-specific updating remains limited, with only GPT-5.5 plus reopened Search slightly surpassing EWMA. Fine-tuning on realised outcomes improves Qwen3-4B's forecast Spearman correlation by 0.105 on held-out fields at later origins, with gains also on change-rich episodes.

The noise transition matrix plays a central role in the problem of learning with noisy labels. Among many other reasons, a large number of existing solutions rely on access to it. Identifying and estimating the transition matrix without ground truth labels is a critical and challenging task. When label noise transition depends on each instance, the problem of identifying the instance-dependent noise transition matrix becomes substantially more challenging. Despite recent works proposing solutions for learning from instance-dependent noisy labels, the field lacks a unified understanding of when such a problem remains identifiable. The goal of this paper is to characterize the identifiability of the label noise transition matrix. Building on Kruskal's identifiability results, we are able to show the necessity of multiple noisy labels in identifying the noise transition matrix for the generic case at the instance level. We further instantiate the results to explain the successes of the state-of-the-art solutions and how additional assumptions alleviated the requirement of multiple noisy labels. Our result also reveals that disentangled features are helpful in the above identification task and we provide empirical evidence.

A login screen that appears after a tap on Sign in is expected; the same screen after a tap on View order is an attack. For GUI agents, safety is therefore a property of the transition rather than of the screen, and a monitor that inspects only screens can be defeated by reusing a legitimate one. Judging a transition requires an expectation of what should have followed the action. Existing GUI world models provide one, but they output it as text, code, or images, so checking it against the observed screen requires a second model to judge the two. We argue that a world model meant for verification should instead predict in the space in which observations are encoded, and present LGWM, a decoder-free, action-conditioned world model that predicts the representation of the next screen directly, trained without semantic annotation on 1.85M real GUI transitions. Verification reduces to a vector comparison, and the same signal reveals whether a mismatch is harmful. We evaluate on RSWT-BENCH, a diagnostic where each credential screen appears under both a legitimate and a hijacked transition, so detectors that see only the screen are at chance by construction. The training-free score reaches 0.987 AUC at 17 ms per decision, on par with the strongest closed-source VLMs and about ten AUC points above generative GUI world models at over three orders of magnitude lower latency. The residual direction reaches 0.953 AUC at separating harmful from benign violations, where prompted VLMs are near chance. Further analyses show that the prediction is a usable future state rather than an anomaly score. World models have mostly served as simulators or planners; our results point to a third role, verification, for which predicting in representation space is the natural design.

Long-horizon agents often struggle to recover from failures whose causes lie several steps earlier, beyond what local reflection or backtracking can resolve. We introduce BELIEFWEAVER, a framework that combines persistent evidence across attempts with prospective reasoning over repair directions. It maintains a relational belief state over frontiers, attempts, observations, and checkpoints. Execution evidence updates related frontier priorities across attempts and rollback, while diagnostic evidence gates execution. An implicit world model (IWM) evaluates repair hypotheses, predicts progress, and identifies relations among frontiers to guide exploration. We further distill these recurring IWM reasoning components into a 9B student through supervised fine-tuning and on-policy distillation (OPD). Across three terminal-based benchmarks, BELIEFWEAVER improves aggregate final score by 5.1 percentage points over native Terminus-2 continuation, with positive trends in exploration efficiency. The distilled 9B student improves final score by 9.8 percentage points over the reported native baseline while reducing estimated teacher API cost by 54.8% relative to the matched teacher. These results show that persistent evidence and prospective reasoning can improve recovery in long-horizon agent tasks while substantially reducing reliance on teacher-model inference.

Medical Vision-Language Models (Med-VLMs) require reliable reasoning from fine-grained visual evidence, yet existing models can produce plausible clinical answers by relying on language priors or medical templates rather than truly attending to diagnosis-critical regions. On-Policy Distillation (OPD) offers dense token-level supervision on student-generated trajectories and provides a privacy-compatible means of capability transfer without requiring the redistribution of raw patient data. However, standard OPD uniformly distills all tokens, causing sparse evidence-dependent tokens to be diluted by abundant clinical narrative tokens. Inspired by the success of OPD in the large language model community, we propose Med-OPD, to our knowledge the first unified post-training framework that integrates on-policy distillation with medical evidence-aware supervision for Med-VLMs. We introduce Medical Evidence Advantage (MEA), a teacher-grounded counterfactual signal that uses an answer-aware hint to focus teacher scoring on evidence supporting the target diagnosis, and measures each token's dependence on medical visual evidence by comparing teacher likelihoods under the original and evidence-degraded imaging modalities. Based on MEA, Med-OPD redistributes the distillation signal at both the token and trajectory levels, emphasizing diagnosis-critical tokens and evidence-reliant rollouts. Experiments on OmniMedVQA subsets show that Med-OPD consistently outperforms SFT and standard OPD across CT, MRI, Disease Diagnosis, and Lesion Grading. These results demonstrate that evidence-aware distillation can better strengthen medical VLMs' reliance on key visual evidence and improve reliable multimodal medical reasoning. The source code and data is publicly available at: https://github.com/yunhang8658/MedOPD.git

Symbolic logical reasoning is a critical yet underexplored capability of large language models (LLMs), providing reliable and verifiable decision-making in high-stakes domains such as mathematical reasoning and legal judgment. In this study, we present a systematic analysis of logical reasoning under controlled increases in logical complexity, and reveal a previously unrecognized phenomenon, which we term Logical Phase Transitions: rather than degrading smoothly, logical reasoning performance remains stable within a regime but collapses abruptly beyond a critical logical depth, mirroring physical phase transitions such as water freezing beyond a critical temperature threshold. Building on this insight, we propose Neuro-Symbolic Curriculum Tuning, a principled framework that adaptively aligns natural language with logical symbols to establish a shared representation, and reshapes training dynamics around phase-transition boundaries to progressively strengthen reasoning at increasing logical depths. Experiments on five benchmarks show that our approach effectively mitigates logical reasoning collapse at high complexity, yielding average accuracy gains of +1.26 in naive prompting and +3.95 in CoT, while improving generalization to unseen logical compositions. Code and data are available at https://github.com/AI4SS/Logical-Phase-Transitions.

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

Despite rapid gains in scale, research evaluation still relies on opaque, lagging proxies. To serve the scientific community, we pursue transparency: reproducible, auditable epistemic classification useful for funding and policy. Here we formalize KGX3 as a scenario-based model for mapping Kuhnian stages from research papers, prove determinism of the classification pipeline, and define the epistemic manifold that yields paradigm maps. We report validation across recent corpora, operational complexity at global scale, and governance that preserves interpretability while protecting core IP. The system delivers early, actionable signals of drift, crisis, and shift unavailable to citation metrics or citations-anchored NLP. KGX3 is the latest iteration of a deterministic epistemic engine developed since 2019, originating as Soph.io (2020), advanced as iKuhn (2024), and field-tested through Preprint Watch in 2025.

Hypothetical induction is recognized as the main reasoning type when scientists make observations about the world and try to propose hypotheses to explain those observations. Past research on hypothetical induction is under a constrained setting: (1) the observation annotations in the dataset are carefully manually handpicked sentences (resulting in a close-domain setting); and (2) the ground truth hypotheses are mostly commonsense knowledge, making the task less challenging. In this work, we tackle these problems by proposing the first dataset for social science academic hypotheses discovery, with the final goal to create systems that automatically generate valid, novel, and helpful scientific hypotheses, given only a pile of raw web corpus. Unlike previous settings, the new dataset requires (1) using open-domain data (raw web corpus) as observations; and (2) proposing hypotheses even new to humanity. A multi-module framework is developed for the task, including three different feedback mechanisms to boost performance, which exhibits superior performance in terms of both GPT-4 based and expert-based evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work showing that LLMs are able to generate novel (''not existing in literature'') and valid (''reflecting reality'') scientific hypotheses.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at answering pre-specified questions, yet their ability to navigate the open-ended, pre-conclusion stage of discovery remains largely unmeasured. We introduce Prospective Hypothesis Discovery (PHD), which asks models to autonomously construct grounded, discriminative, and testable hypothesis spaces from inconclusive evidence, including anomalous observations and fragmented records, to guide subsequent investigation. To evaluate this capability, we introduce HypoArena, comprising HypoData, a benchmark of 988 cases across six scientific and analytical domains, and HypoEval, an evaluation framework for open-ended hypothesis sets. To construct HypoData at scale, we propose Retrospective Context Regression, a Forge--Audit pipeline that reconstructs pre-conclusion contexts from completed expert documents by removing explicit conclusions, target hypotheses, and retrospective causal attributions while preserving the factual substrate. Because PHD admits multiple valid outputs, HypoEval combines bidirectional pairwise judgments with Bradley--Terry--Davidson aggregation for ranking and six-dimensional rubric scoring for diagnosis. Experiments on 15 frontier LLMs reveal clear capability stratification and model-dependent effects of structured analytical skills, with gains for several lower-performing models on HypoArena but regressions for other systems, including a top-performing model. Compared with absolute rubric scoring, arena evaluation resolves finer-grained differences among models, with aggregated rankings showing strong agreement with human experts and an independent judge. Together, these results support treating PHD as a distinct target for evaluating how LLMs formulate investigative directions when final conclusions are withheld. Our code and data are publicly available at github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena and github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

Recent advances in visual reasoning have leveraged vision transformers to tackle the ARC-AGI benchmark. However, we argue that the feed-forward architecture, where computational depth is strictly bound to parameter size, falls short of capturing the iterative, algorithmic nature of human induction. In this work, we propose a recursive architecture called Loop-ViT, which decouples reasoning depth from model capacity through weight-tied recurrence. Loop-ViT iterates a weight-tied Hybrid Block, combining local convolutions and global attention, to form a latent chain of thought. Crucially, we introduce a parameter-free Dynamic Exit mechanism based on predictive entropy: the model halts inference when its internal state ``crystallizes" into a low-uncertainty attractor. Empirical results on the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark validate this perspective: our 18M model achieves 65.8% accuracy, outperforming massive 73M-parameter ensembles. These findings demonstrate that adaptive iterative computation offers a far more efficient scaling axis for visual reasoning than simply increasing network width. The code is available at https://github.com/WenjieShu/LoopViT.

Transition videos play a crucial role in media production, enhancing the flow and coherence of visual narratives. Traditional methods like morphing often lack artistic appeal and require specialized skills, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advances in diffusion model-based video generation offer new possibilities for creating transitions but face challenges such as poor inter-frame relationship modeling and abrupt content changes. We propose a novel training-free Transition Video Generation (TVG) approach using video-level diffusion models that addresses these limitations without additional training. Our method leverages Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to model latent representations, ensuring smooth and dynamic transitions between frames. Additionally, we introduce interpolation-based conditional controls and a Frequency-aware Bidirectional Fusion (FBiF) architecture to enhance temporal control and transition reliability. Evaluations of benchmark datasets and custom image pairs demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating high-quality smooth transition videos. The code are provided in https://sobeymil.github.io/tvg.com.

Reasoning-specialized language models show large performance gains over base models, yet the internal changes responsible for improved multi-step reasoning remain poorly understood. It is unclear whether reasoning fine-tuning improves local token-level competence or globally reorganizes how models structure inference over time. We address this question by modeling Chain-of-Thought reasoning as a switching dynamical system (SDS), in which internal representations evolve under discrete latent policy states. Our framework combines time-aware contrastive representation learning with discrete regime discovery to recover latent policies from activation trajectories. Across four benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 32B parameters, reasoning-fine-tuned models exhibit richer latent-policy organization than their base counterparts, characterized by more differentiated transition structure and model-dependent changes in state utilization, persistence, and mixing. The recovered regimes exhibit functional specialization aligned with distinct reasoning stages, and extensive controls confirm that their structure is not explained by correctness, representation learning, or modeling priors, but depends on the coherent temporal organization of reasoning trajectories. Causal interventions further show that the regimes are functionally meaningful: state-swap ablations reduce one-step predictive fit, while transplanting reasoning dynamics into base models improves performance on challenging reasoning problems. Finally, SDS-guided pruning of failure-prone reasoning prefixes outperforms self-consistency in 11 of 12 model-dataset settings, with gains of up to 12.5 percentage points. Together, our results suggest that reasoning fine-tuning globally reorganizes latent dynamics, offering a new lens for mechanistic analysis and process-level control of reasoning models.

Foundation models can serve as clinical agents through tool-use harnesses. However, conventional medical benchmarks assess reasoning over preselected evidence rather than the ability to seek it across clinical records and longitudinal imaging. We propose CASE: a series of role-specific Clinical Agents for Seeking Evidence, together with a tool-use harness and an agentic post-training framework for compact vision-language policy models. We further introduce a longitudinal multimodal benchmark built on UK Biobank, comprising 50,401 clinical questions derived from real-world ICD-10-coded diagnoses of 4,739 participants. Each question links to a patient-specific environment containing clinical context and multi-sequence MRI from baseline and follow-up visits, where agents autonomously select which visits, organs, modalities, slices, and specialist tools to inspect and compare. Supervised fine-tuning transfers evidence-seeking workflows from 14,734 frontier-model interaction trajectories, followed by agentic reinforcement learning on the learner's own environment interactions. Privileged on-policy self-distillation and rubric-based LLM feedback refine evidence-to-conclusion reasoning without prescribing tool sequences. Experiments show that CASE moves beyond question-answer imitation toward transferable investigation policies, strengthening evidence-grounded longitudinal reasoning. Under matched evaluation conditions, our Qwen3-VL-8B based agent achieves over 16% and 10% relative improvements in answer accuracy over GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.8. Code will be available at https://github.com/VinyehShaw/CASE.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

Practitioners inferring causality from observational data usually rely on a single method and treat its output as causal truth. Recent tools select an optimal method for a dataset, and recent ensembles aggregate multiple causal-discovery algorithms into one graph, but little work pools evidence across different mathematical traditions, including non-causal ones. We present Multi-Method Causal Evidence Synthesis (MCES), a framework that ranks which candidate drivers in an observational system are most likely relevant to a set of outcomes, and with what strength of evidence. MCES runs eleven methods across eight mathematical traditions on observational panel data and pools their outputs into a Convergent Evidence Score (CES), a linear opinion pool. CES quantifies convergence of evidence across analytical lenses: the degree to which methods with different assumptions point to the same driver-outcome relationship. It does not claim causal identification in the interventionist sense; it supports hypothesis prioritization, not a transferable probability of causation. MCES first applies Structural-Behavioral Decomposition to remove definitional (algebraic) relationships, then runs all methods, normalizes outputs to [0,1], and pools them. We distinguish MCES from method selection, structural ensembles, prediction ensembles, and literature synthesis. Using synthetic data with embedded ground truth, the Sachs protein-signaling benchmark, six Bayesian-network structure benchmarks, and two further synthetic domains, we show MCES ranks true edges near the top (Precision@5 = 1.0, Precision@10 = 0.96 on the primary scenario), with a low empirical rate of null pairs reaching Moderate-or-higher convergence. Our central point is not that the pool beats every individual method, but that no single method is uniformly best across the evaluated scenarios, so MCES offers a method-agnostic default.

Tabular biomedical data poses challenges in machine learning because it is often high-dimensional and typically low-sample-size (HDLSS). Previous research has attempted to address these challenges via local feature selection, but existing approaches often fail to achieve optimal performance due to their limitation in identifying globally important features and their susceptibility to the co-adaptation problem. In this paper, we propose ProtoGate, a prototype-based neural model for feature selection on HDLSS data. ProtoGate first selects instance-wise features via adaptively balancing global and local feature selection. Furthermore, ProtoGate employs a non-parametric prototype-based prediction mechanism to tackle the co-adaptation problem, ensuring the feature selection results and predictions are consistent with underlying data clusters. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate the performance and interpretability of ProtoGate on synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that ProtoGate generally outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy by a clear margin while providing high-fidelity feature selection and explainable predictions. Code is available at https://github.com/SilenceX12138/ProtoGate.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting productive paths can substantially reduce wasted computation and improve overall efficiency. We introduce Latent-Trajectory signals that characterize the temporal evolution of a model's internal representations during the generation of intermediate reasoning tokens. By measuring the overall change in latent representations between the start and end of reasoning, the change accumulated across intermediate steps, and the extent to which these changes advance toward the final state, we show that these signals predict solution accuracy more reliably than both cross-layer metrics and output-based confidence measures. When used to guide answer selection across multiple sampled generations, Latent-Trajectory signals make test-time scaling more effective and efficient than majority voting, reducing token usage by up to 70% while preserving and even improving accuracy by 2.6% on average. Moreover, these predictive signals often emerge early in the reasoning trace, enabling early selection and allocation of compute to the most promising candidates. Our findings contribute not only practical strategies for inference-time efficiency, but also a deeper interpretability perspective on how reasoning processes are represented and differentiated in latent space.

LLM failures in causal reasoning, including sycophancy, rung collapse, and miscalibrated refusal, are well-documented, yet progress on remediation is slow because no benchmark enables systematic diagnosis. We introduce CausalT5K, a diagnostic benchmark of over 5,000 cases across 10 domains that tests three critical capabilities: (1) detecting rung collapse, where models answer interventional queries with associational evidence; (2) resisting sycophantic drift under adversarial pressure; and (3) generating Wise Refusals that specify missing information when evidence is underdetermined. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, CausalT5K embeds causal traps in realistic narratives and decomposes performance into Utility (sensitivity) and Safety (specificity), revealing failure modes invisible to aggregate accuracy. Developed through a rigorous human-machine collaborative pipeline involving 40 domain experts, iterative cross-validation cycles, and composite verification via rule-based, LLM, and human scoring, CausalT5K implements Pearl's Ladder of Causation as research infrastructure. Preliminary experiments reveal a Four-Quadrant Control Landscape where static audit policies universally fail, a finding that demonstrates CausalT5K's value for advancing trustworthy reasoning systems. Repository: https://github.com/genglongling/CausalT5kBench

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

Extended reasoning has become standard for frontier Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the trajectories these models produce remain largely uncontrollable. Existing methods for shaping how a model reasons are prompt based approaches and operate at the input level, offering no fine-grained control over the reasoning process itself. Related work analyzes and discovers latent transition dynamics in the reasoning traces from Large Language Models. Building on this, we statistically characterize these states, and show that failure trajectories get stuck in self-loops, exhausting the token budget without progress toward the final answer. To intervene on these failures, We propose SOPHIA: Steering Of reasoning Processes via Hidden-state Intervention and Activations. We treat each reasoning trace as a sequence of latent states rather than an unstructured texts, and investigate whether inference time interventions can provide fine-grained control over the self-looping reasoning process. We classify every prefix to a latent state, record step level transitions, and use them to construct a bank of steering vectors indexed by state pairs. At inference time, a controller infers the current state and, given a target state, retrieves the corresponding vector and can also detect self-loops online from the transition structure to prevent the model from sinking into a reasoning black hole. Through extensive experiments, our method reliably intervenes on self-loop failures, with steering vectors that generalize to different state pairs. End task accuracy and token efficiency indicate that fine-grained controllability results in better reasoning quality.

Diffusion and flow-matching schedules control the signal and noise coefficients that mix data and noise along affine probability paths. Minimizing a kinetic action defined on coefficient paths, motivated by optimal transport, helps explain strong baselines but remains model-agnostic and ignores prediction error. Here we introduce a model-aware schedule construction based on fiberwise optimal transport. At a fixed time and state on the probability path, compatible signal/noise decompositions form an affine fiber. We define a fiberwise prediction risk by averaging optimal-transport costs between the true and predictor-induced decompositions within these fibers. On a fixed coefficient curve, combining this risk with coefficient-path kinetic action yields a closed-form optimal time allocation. This construction extends to general linear prediction targets, and the risk profile can be estimated from an early baseline checkpoint. We evaluate DDPMs and flow matching across prediction targets, training configurations, risk-estimation checkpoints, datasets, and architectures. Our model-aware schedules consistently outperform strong baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Each model-agnostic kinetic baseline determines its own kinetic reference coordinate. In these coordinates, fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models in different settings align closely after normalization to unit area. The resulting schedule deformations used in training also align, suggesting empirical universality across the evaluated models and settings. Pretrained-checkpoint diagnostics extend this normalized-risk agreement to larger conditional latent diffusion and 2-RF models. A frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the model-aware improvement without further risk estimation or model-specific fitting.

Recent work on reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be substantially improved using outcome-level verification signals, such as unit tests for code or exact-match checks for mathematics. In parallel, process supervision has long been explored as a way to shape the intermediate reasoning behaviour of LLMs, but existing approaches rely on neural judges to score chain-of-thought steps, leaving them vulnerable to opacity, bias, and reward hacking. To address this gap, we introduce Verifiable Process Reward Models (VPRMs), a reinforcement-learning framework in which intermediate reasoning steps are checked by deterministic, rule-based verifiers. We apply VPRMs to risk-of-bias assessment for medical evidence synthesis, a domain where guideline-defined criteria and rule-based decision paths enable programmatic verification of reasoning traces. Across multiple datasets, we find that VPRMs generate reasoning that adheres closely to domain rules and achieve substantially higher coherence between step-level decisions and final labels. Results show that VPRMs achieve up to 20% higher F1 than state-of-the-art models and 6.5% higher than verifiable outcome rewards, with substantial gains in evidence grounding and logical coherence.

Autonomous scientific discovery systems increasingly use large language models (LLMs) to propose new hypotheses, but many such systems condition primarily on experimental memory: archives of high-scoring candidates or heuristic summaries of recent trials. We argue that discovery agents should instead maintain explicit, uncertainty-aware beliefs about hypothesis quality. We introduce BayesEvolve, a belief-guided discovery framework that converts experimental evidence into a predictive belief state and uses this belief to guide future experimentation. As a controlled testbed for belief-guided discovery, we evaluate BayesEvolve on shifted BBOB-style black-box optimization tasks, leaving program and laboratory discovery domains to future work. BayesEvolve improves sample efficiency over memory- and archive-guided LLM baselines under a fixed evaluation budget. We further show that the belief state is predictive on held-out candidate pools, that controlled decision-rule ablations favor belief-guided selection with an annealed uncertainty bonus, and that BayesEvolve exhibits productive late-stage concentration rather than unfocused exploration.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Retrieve-then-generate pipelines are commonly used to produce deep-research answers for open-ended questions, but retrieval alone is insufficient: LLMs must organize noisy and fragmented evidence into comprehensive, well-cited answers. We refer to this process as evidence synthesis. However, direct generation often underuses evidence, misaligns citations, and collapses diverse information into shallow summaries, exposing an evidence synthesis gap between retrieval and generation. Thus, we propose DeepWeaver, a novel framework that weaves noisy retrieved evidence into comprehensive answers by maintaining Thought Block Chains (TBCs), a structured representation that groups claims, salient information, keywords, and supporting evidence. DeepWeaver uses subordinate TBCs to inspect residual evidence, commit TBC revisions, and discover new claims before final generation. We evaluate DeepWeaver on open-ended QA over both knowledge bases and the web, and introduce LoQA, a high-density benchmark for evidence synthesis. Across multiple LLMs, DeepWeaver improves content sufficiency, citation grounding, and detail preservation on LoQA, while achieving deeper insights and higher citation quality on DeepResearch Bench. These results show that evidence weaving is an effective mechanism for bridging retrieval and generation in open-ended QA. Our code is available at https://github.com/KlozeWang/DeepWeaver.

AI-assisted research compresses ideation, implementation, evaluation, and manuscript writing into a single interactive loop. This compression is useful, but it also creates a publication risk: paper claims can become easier to state than to audit. We present ResearchLoop, an evidence-gated control plane for AI-assisted computational research. ResearchLoop treats research questions, task contracts, evidence objects, claim ledgers, closeouts, and paper bindings as durable project state, realized here as a repository-backed runtime. This technical report provides the complete protocol specification, state model, transition rules, claim-admission algorithm, and insight-compounding mechanism. It also reports the full experimental record spanning nine versions (V0--V9), including a self-hosting case study, a controlled task-suite study with component ablations, a mathematical olympiad evaluation, and a supplementary SciCode boundary experiment evaluated with the official generated-code harness. All artifacts, manifests, and verification reports are preserved in the project repository.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.

Despite achieving high accuracy on medical benchmarks, LLMs exhibit the Einstellung Effect in clinical diagnosis--relying on statistical shortcuts rather than patient-specific evidence, causing misdiagnosis in atypical cases. Existing benchmarks fail to detect this critical failure mode. We introduce MedEinst, a counterfactual benchmark with 5,383 paired clinical cases across 49 diseases. Each pair contains a control case and a "trap" case with altered discriminative evidence that flips the diagnosis. We measure susceptibility via Bias Trap Rate--probability of misdiagnosing traps despite correctly diagnosing controls. Extensive Evaluation of 17 LLMs shows frontier models achieve high baseline accuracy but severe bias trap rates. Thus, we propose ECR-Agent, aligning LLM reasoning with Evidence-Based Medicine standard via two components: (1) Dynamic Causal Inference (DCI) performs structured reasoning through dual-pathway perception, dynamic causal graph reasoning across three levels (association, intervention, counterfactual), and evidence audit for final diagnosis; (2) Critic-Driven Graph and Memory Evolution (CGME) iteratively refines the system by storing validated reasoning paths in an exemplar base and consolidating disease-specific knowledge into evolving illness graphs. Source code is to be released.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Existing datasets that contain boolean questions, such as BoolQ and TYDI QA , provide the user with a YES/NO response to the question. However, a one word response is not sufficient for an explainable system. We promote explainability by releasing a new set of annotations marking the evidence in existing TyDi QA and BoolQ datasets. We show that our annotations can be used to train a model that extracts improved evidence spans compared to models that rely on existing resources. We confirm our findings with a user study which shows that our extracted evidence spans enhance the user experience. We also provide further insight into the challenges of answering boolean questions, such as passages containing conflicting YES and NO answers, and varying degrees of relevance of the predicted evidence.

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate.

Large language models (LLMs) progressively revise their predictions across Transformer layers, yet we typically observe only the final output, discarding the trajectory through which it is formed. We introduce Belief-Trajectory Energy(BTE), a model-grounded measure that characterizes an input through the layerwise predictive revisions it induces in a model. By mapping intermediate states into a shared predictive space, BTE provides a principled measure of belief change that can be summarized as either a scalar or a structured depth profile. Theoretically, we show that local BTE corresponds to predictive revision under the Fisher-Rao geometry, while the sequence of revisions captures information beyond the initial-to-final belief change. Empirically, scalar BTE provides a model-relative signal of difficulty across diverse reasoning tasks, while richer BTE representations support human-LLM review detection and fine-grained generator attribution, reaching up to 0.998 macro-AUROC and 95.6% eight-way attribution accuracy. Further analysis shows that BTE develops throughout pretraining and is selectively reshaped by targeted training, demonstrating that the resulting measurement reflects what the scoring model has learned. Together, our results establish belief trajectories as a principled model-grounded signal and suggest a broader perspective in which learned models can themselves serve as instruments for characterizing the data they process. More demonstrations can be found at https://yingjiahao14.github.io/BTE-web/.

Autonomous scientific discovery systems offer the potential to accelerate research by automating the process of hypothesis generation and validation. However, current systems operate within constrained search spaces or require predefined research questions, limiting their capacity for true open-ended inquiry. Furthermore, while they generate hypotheses iteratively, they largely lack the ability to explicitly synthesize their own accumulated findings to uncover complex, interconnected phenomena. We introduce DiscoPER, an autonomous large language model-powered framework that conducts open-ended research by dynamically generating and executing code to explore datasets without pre-specified research objectives. To ensure rigorous scientific validity, every proposed discovery must pass statistical testing. To overcome the limitations of isolated search, our framework introduces a second-order reasoning mechanism that periodically analyzes its own accumulated discoveries. By treating prior discoveries as empirical data, DiscoPER identifies structural patterns, confounds, and epistemic gaps, actively redirecting hypothesis exploration toward uncharted regions of the search space. The search space is further expanded by incorporating tool use, enabling the system to explore hypotheses beyond structured metadata by seamlessly processing and extracting useful information from multimodal sources like images. Evaluated on iNatDisco, a new multimodal ecological knowledge benchmark with pattern-level ground truth obtained from peer-reviewed literature, DiscoPER recovers 8 of 9 known patterns with a 72.7% hypothesis support rate, outperforming both classical causal discovery and LLM-guided baselines. Ablations show that DiscoPER scales with more data, and confirms the benefits of second-order meta-reflection.

Many modern AI question-answering systems convert text into vectors and retrieve the closest matches to a user question. While effective for topical similarity, similarity scores alone do not explain why some retrieved text can serve as evidence while other equally similar text cannot. When many candidates receive similar scores, systems may select sentences that are redundant, incomplete, or address different conditions than the question requires. This paper presents a deterministic evidence selection framework for retrieval-augmented question answering. The approach introduces Meaning-Utility Estimation (MUE) and Diversity-Utility Estimation (DUE), fixed scoring and redundancy-control procedures that determine evidence admissibility prior to answer generation. Each sentence or record is evaluated independently using explicit signals for semantic relatedness, term coverage, conceptual distinctiveness, and redundancy. No training or fine-tuning is required. In the prototype, a unit is accepted only if it explicitly states the fact, rule, or condition required by the task. Units are not merged or expanded. If no unit independently satisfies the requirement, the system returns no answer. This deterministic gating produces compact, auditable evidence sets and establishes a clear boundary between relevant text and usable evidence.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

Context compression improves long-context efficiency but may introduce faithfulness issues through an information bottleneck. Existing evaluations rely on QA metrics, but a reader can still answer correctly from an unfaithful compression, so these metrics underestimate such loss. To bridge this gap, we introduce KEEP-Bench, a diagnostic benchmark that directly assesses compression faithfulness with 4,102 cases across three challenging settings that require keeping evidence for plausible reference resolutions, explicit qualifiers, and minority perspectives. Experiments show that even with tailored prompting, the strongest models remain unreliable: despite context windows exceeding 100K tokens and inputs averaging only 3.1K tokens, the best open-weight model (31B) preserves all required evidence in only 66.8% of cases, and the best proprietary model in only 61.6%. Performance also varies sharply across evidence structures, so conclusions from limited structures may be biased. We further introduce a metric, Evidence Preservation Return (EPR), to relate evidence recall to inference FLOPs, and find that it peaks at moderate scales (4B-8B), where recall remains low. Additional output budget mainly benefits already strong models and widens capability gaps, yet the stronger preservation of these models comes at a steep computational cost. These findings highlight the importance for future work to investigate compressors with strong information preservation under a small computation budget, rather than relying on a large output budget or model scaling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant promise in automated theorem proving, yet progress is often constrained by the scarcity of diverse and high-quality formal language data. To address this issue, we introduce Spark-Prover-X1, a 7B parameter model trained via an three-stage framework designed to unlock the reasoning potential of more accessible and moderately-sized LLMs. The first stage infuses deep knowledge through continuous pre-training on a broad mathematical corpus, enhanced by a suite of novel data tasks. Key innovation is a "CoT-augmented state prediction" task to achieve fine-grained reasoning. The second stage employs Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) within an expert iteration loop to specialize both the Spark-Prover-X1-7B and Spark-Formalizer-X1-7B models. Finally, a targeted round of Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is applied to sharpen the prover's capabilities on the most challenging problems. To facilitate robust evaluation, particularly on problems from real-world examinations, we also introduce ExamFormal-Bench, a new benchmark dataset of 402 formal problems. Experimental results demonstrate that Spark-Prover achieves state-of-the-art performance among similarly-sized open-source models within the "Whole-Proof Generation" paradigm. It shows exceptional performance on difficult competition benchmarks, notably solving 27 problems on PutnamBench (pass@32) and achieving 24.0\% on CombiBench (pass@32). Our work validates that this diverse training data and progressively refined training pipeline provides an effective path for enhancing the formal reasoning capabilities of lightweight LLMs. We will release both Spark-Prover-X1-7B and Spark-Formalizer-X1-7B, along with the ExamFormal-Bench dataset, in the near future.

Latent chain-of-thought compresses reasoning by replacing visible reasoning traces with continuous hidden-state recurrence, but existing formulations are difficult to optimize with standard on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) and hard to interpret causally. Our key insight is that a single pair of explicit boundary tokens can address both issues at once: discrete entry and exit anchors make the latent block compatible with standard on-policy RL, and the same anchors offer a natural foothold for mechanistic analysis. Motivated by this, we propose SWITCH, a switchable latent reasoning framework. The model emits <swi> to enter latent mode and </swi> to exit. Because the boundaries are ordinary discrete tokens, the GRPO policy ratio is well-defined at every decision point. The same anchors also expose the latent steps to direct probing and causal intervention. We train the model with a visible-to-latent curriculum and a Switch-GRPO objective that propagates gradients through recurrent latent computation. SWITCH consistently outperforms prior hidden-state-recurrence latent reasoning approaches at similar scale. Mechanistic analysis through the boundary tokens further reveals three findings: (i) <swi> is a sharply localised, learned switching policy rather than a stylistic artefact; (ii) the latent step it opens performs problem-specific, causally important computation rather than acting as an inert placeholder; and (iii) that computation is concentrated at a single hidden-state transition on entry. Together, these results show that hidden-state-recurrence latent reasoning is both RL-trainable and open to direct mechanistic analysis, including of how on-policy RL itself improves the model from the inside.

World Action Models (WAMs) improve planning by incorporating future world evolution into action generation, yet existing methods allocate a fixed imagination budget to every scene. We propose RISE (Refining Imagination through SElective Rollout), a system-level adaptive imagination framework that makes sequential Roll/Stop decisions according to the expected planning benefit of continued rollout. At each step, a Latent Evaluator estimates the risk revealed by the current prefix and how much planning could improve if imagination continues, while a Rollout Gate weighs this expected benefit against additional computation cost. Since factual driving logs expose only one realized future, we further construct CounterDrive, a counterfactual dataset with diverse outcomes and risk levels, to enrich future dynamics and provide localized risk supervision. Each retained sample undergoes expert verification and annotation of trajectory validity, incident onset, and causal category, providing a reusable resource for safety-critical world-modeling research. Experiments on NAVSIM and nuScenes show that RISE achieves the best overall planning performance while reducing unnecessary rollout, with additional transfer results supporting its plug-in generality across WAM architectures.

When pretrained VLA policies are fine-tuned through online RL, each rollout episode produces only a single binary outcome (success or failure), yet the actor update requires per-transition supervision. Existing approaches commonly reduce this sparse outcome to a single scalar reward or advantage signal, which conflates distinct forms of transition-level feedback and provides limited guidance once basic task success becomes achievable. First, a single scalar signal conflates the two objectives of viability and efficiency; once basic success is achieved, the binary label provides no gradient to distinguish efficient completions from slow ones. Second, real-world rollouts mix autonomous and intervention segments; naively assigning episode outcomes across these boundaries introduces incorrect credit assignment. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Advantage-Weighted Behavior Cloning (HABC), which trains separate critic heads for these two objectives on different data subsets and combines their outputs with a state-adaptive balance. A state-adaptive gate g_t merges their one-step advantages, prioritizing viability when success is uncertain and shifting to efficiency only when viability is high, and converts the result into per-transition weights on the actor loss. Intervention-aware credit assignment further restricts outcome labels to segments executed by the current policy, preventing supervision from leaking across intervention boundaries. In real-robot experiments on three contact-rich bimanual tasks, HABC raises success from supervised fine-tuning (SFT) baselines of 36%, 44%, and 12% to 92%, 88%, and 38%.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Reward-based fine-tuning of diffusion models has largely inherited likelihood-based policy optimization developed for autoregressive large language models (LLMs). Diffusion models, however, are natively trained through velocity regression and do not directly provide the likelihood of a generated sample. Existing methods address this using transition likelihoods along stochastic denoising trajectories or evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) to approximate generated-sample likelihoods. These approximations arise from applying likelihood-based updates to models whose native training and generation operate through velocity fields. We instead take velocity matching as the starting point for reward fine-tuning. We propose reward-based velocity matching (RVM), which weights the velocity-matching loss by reward with an additional anchor regression term, requiring neither likelihood estimation nor likelihood ratios. RVM recovers Reinforce Adjoint Matching at the update level and contains DiffusionNFT as a special case, while ELBO-based methods are closely related through the same velocity-regression structure. This unified view isolates reward design and anchor velocity as principal design choices in velocity-based fine-tuning. Across text-to-image, text-to-video, and image-to-video generation, RVM matches or outperforms the evaluated trajectory-based methods. On Wan2.1-T2V-1.3B, it achieves the highest VBench Overall among the evaluated methods, with substantially lower estimated training costs than the trajectory-based approaches. For video fine-tuning, we introduce a dynamic-tracking reward that provides explicit motion feedback and improves both Dynamic Degree and overall VBench performance.

Long-form clinical videos are central to visual evidence-based decision-making, with growing importance for applications such as surgical robotics and related settings. However, current multimodal large language models typically process videos with passive sampling or weakly grounded inspection, which limits their ability to iteratively locate, verify, and justify predictions with temporally targeted evidence. To close this gap, we propose MedScope, a tool-using clinical video reasoning model that performs coarse-to-fine evidence seeking over long-form procedures. By interleaving intermediate reasoning with targeted tool calls and verification on retrieved observations, MedScope produces more accurate and trustworthy predictions that are explicitly grounded in temporally localized visual evidence. To address the lack of high-fidelity supervision, we build ClinVideoSuite, an evidence-centric, fine-grained clinical video suite. We then optimize MedScope with Grounding-Aware Group Relative Policy Optimization (GA-GRPO), which directly reinforces tool use with grounding-aligned rewards and evidence-weighted advantages. On full and fine-grained video understanding benchmarks, MedScope achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations. Our approach illuminates a path toward medical AI agents that can genuinely "think with videos" through tool-integrated reasoning. We will release our code, models, and data.

Shot Boundary Detection (SBD) aims to automatically identify shot changes and divide a video into coherent shots. While SBD was widely studied in the literature, existing state-of-the-art methods often produce non-interpretable boundaries on transitions, miss subtle yet harmful discontinuities, and rely on noisy, low-diversity annotations and outdated benchmarks. To alleviate these limitations, we propose OmniShotCut to formulate SBD as structured relational prediction, jointly estimating shot ranges with intra-shot relations and inter-shot relations, by a shot query-based dense video Transformer. To avoid imprecise manual labeling, we adopt a fully synthetic transition synthesis pipeline that automatically reproduces major transition families with precise boundaries and parameterized variants. We also introduce OmniShotCutBench, a modern wide-domain benchmark enabling holistic and diagnostic evaluation.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting enables complex reasoning in large language models (LLMs), including applications in information retrieval (IR). However, it often leads to overthinking, where models produce excessively long and semantically redundant traces with little or no benefit. We identify two key challenges in IR: redundant trajectories that revisit similar states and misguided reasoning that diverges from user intent. To address these, we propose State Machine Reasoning (SMR), a transition-based reasoning framework composed of discrete actions (Refine, Rerank, Stop) that support early stopping and fine-grained control. Experiments on the BEIR and BRIGHT benchmarks show that SMR improves retrieval performance (nDCG@10) by 3.4% while reducing token usage by 74.4%. It generalizes across LLMs and retrievers without requiring task-specific tuning, offering a practical alternative to conventional CoT reasoning. The code and details are available at https://github.com/ldilab/SMR.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

Deep research requires models to retrieve, connect, and synthesize evidence from large-scale heterogeneous sources to answer complex queries and produce analytical reports. Existing benchmarks mainly evaluate final outcomes, such as answer correctness, report quality, or citation alignment, while providing limited visibility into whether evidence is correctly selected, linked, and aggregated into supported claims and conclusions. To address this gap, we introduce HiEviDR-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating Hierarchical Evidence Aggregation in Deep Research. HiEviDR-Bench covers open-domain and academic-domain settings under both text-only and multimodal conditions, and represents each instance with an explicit evidence graph that captures evidence selection, cross-source linking, and aggregation from evidence to intermediate claims and final conclusions. Based on this formulation, we develop a traceability-oriented evaluation framework with five dimensions: report quality, evidence traceability, citation accuracy, claim verification, and answer correctness, together with a progressive gating mechanism for fine-grained error localization. HiEviDR-Bench contains 2,000 human-validated questions with evidence graphs across multiple difficulty levels. Experiments on 16 representative multimodal large language models show that, although many systems achieve strong report quality, their performance drops markedly on citation accuracy, claim construction, and answer correctness. Further analysis shows that the main bottlenecks lie in evidence identification and intermediate claim construction, revealing that strong surface-level report quality does not necessarily imply grounded multi-stage reasoning on our benchmark.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing (β_c) that, compared to the network's current state (β), yields a dynamic ratio β(t)/β_c(t): a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, β/β_c provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.

Generating novel and creative scientific hypotheses is a cornerstone in achieving Artificial General Intelligence. Large language and reasoning models have the potential to aid in the systematic creation, selection, and validation of scientifically informed hypotheses. However, current foundation models often struggle to produce scientific ideas that are both novel and feasible. One reason is the lack of a dedicated dataset that frames Scientific Hypothesis Generation (SHG) as a Natural Language Generation (NLG) task. In this paper, we introduce HypoGen, the first dataset of approximately 5500 structured problem-hypothesis pairs extracted from top-tier computer science conferences structured with a Bit-Flip-Spark schema, where the Bit is the conventional assumption, the Spark is the key insight or conceptual leap, and the Flip is the resulting counterproposal. HypoGen uniquely integrates an explicit Chain-of-Reasoning component that reflects the intellectual process from Bit to Flip. We demonstrate that framing hypothesis generation as conditional language modelling, with the model fine-tuned on Bit-Flip-Spark and the Chain-of-Reasoning (and where, at inference, we only provide the Bit), leads to improvements in the overall quality of the hypotheses. Our evaluation employs automated metrics and LLM judge rankings for overall quality assessment. We show that by fine-tuning on our HypoGen dataset we improve the novelty, feasibility, and overall quality of the generated hypotheses. The HypoGen dataset is publicly available at huggingface.co/datasets/UniverseTBD/hypogen-dr1.

Transfer learning has been widely utilized to mitigate the data scarcity problem in the field of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Conventional transfer learning relies on re-using models trained on AD-irrelevant tasks such as natural image classification. However, it often leads to negative transfer due to the discrepancy between the non-medical source and target medical domains. To address this, we present evidence-empowered transfer learning for AD diagnosis. Unlike conventional approaches, we leverage an AD-relevant auxiliary task, namely morphological change prediction, without requiring additional MRI data. In this auxiliary task, the diagnosis model learns the evidential and transferable knowledge from morphological features in MRI scans. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework is not only effective in improving detection performance regardless of model capacity, but also more data-efficient and faithful.

Fetal ultrasound standard-plane classification underpins reliable prenatal biometry and anomaly screening, yet real-world deployment is limited by domain shift, image noise, and poor calibration of predicted probabilities. This paper presents a practical framework for uncertainty-calibrated explainable AI in fetal plane classification. We synthesize uncertainty estimation methods (Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, evidential learning, and conformal prediction) with post-hoc and uncertainty-aware explanations (Grad-CAM variants, LIME-style local surrogates, and uncertainty-weighted multi-resolution activation maps), and we map these components to a clinician-facing workflow. Using FETAL_PLANES_DB as a reference benchmark, we define a reporting protocol that couples accuracy with calibration and selective prediction, including expected calibration error, Brier score, coverage-risk curves, and structured error analysis with explanations. We also discuss integration points for quality control and human-in-the-loop review, where uncertainty flags trigger re-acquisition or expert confirmation. The goal is a reproducible, clinically aligned blueprint for building fetal ultrasound classifiers whose confidence and explanations remain trustworthy under noisy acquisition conditions.

Diffusion models have quickly risen in popularity for their ability to model complex distributions and perform effective posterior sampling. Unfortunately, the iterative nature of these generative models makes them computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time sequential inverse problems such as ultrasound imaging. Considering the strong temporal structure across sequences of frames, we propose a novel approach that models the transition dynamics to improve the efficiency of sequential diffusion posterior sampling in conditional image synthesis. Through modeling sequence data using a video vision transformer (ViViT) transition model based on previous diffusion outputs, we can initialize the reverse diffusion trajectory at a lower noise scale, greatly reducing the number of iterations required for convergence. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real-world dataset of high frame rate cardiac ultrasound images and show that it achieves the same performance as a full diffusion trajectory while accelerating inference 25times, enabling real-time posterior sampling. Furthermore, we show that the addition of a transition model improves the PSNR up to 8\% in cases with severe motion. Our method opens up new possibilities for real-time applications of diffusion models in imaging and other domains requiring real-time inference.

The growing use of language models for forecasting motivates a broader evaluation of their world-model capabilities. Such evaluation must go beyond predictive accuracy to assess hidden-state inference and intervention prediction. Real-world forecasting benchmarks offer limited access to hidden-state ground truth and controlled experiments. We introduce CivWorldBench, a benchmark built on a multi-agent strategy game engine with recorded internal states, controlled observations, and paired intervention rollouts. Its 1,900 decision points from 475 worlds support three task levels: association forecasting, belief inference, and intervention prediction. Reference predictors support attributable evaluation of capability gaps, with an expert harness and empirical ceiling estimates contextualizing scores. Stored trajectories make intermediate predictions verifiable, while agent-play experiments test whether world-model capabilities support decision-making. The main panel comprises eleven frontier language models. Composite benchmark scores correlate with real-world forecasting leaderboards on matched model panels, more closely than with a general-capability index, supporting its use as a proxy for real-world forecasting capability. Strong association forecasts do not consistently extend to belief inference or intervention prediction, and effect magnitudes remain poorly calibrated despite informative direction predictions. Process verification reveals errors missed by final-answer evaluation, and structured reasoning improves intervention prediction for the strongest model in the process study. Agent-play experiments identify useful assisted plans and motivate evaluating decision-relevant capabilities beyond association forecasting. These findings identify hidden-state inference, intermediate-state prediction, and effect calibration as priorities for world-model training.

Reliable progress in offline policy learning depends on careful reporting, well-tuned baselines, and evaluation across diverse conditions. Prior work has shown that results can be sensitive to reporting choices, hyperparameter tuning, and dataset properties, but these sources of variability have not been systematically investigated together at the scale needed to understand how they shape conclusions. To address this gap, we present a large-scale empirical study of offline reinforcement and imitation learning, training over 160,000 policies across 114 datasets. At this scale, no algorithm dominates: aggregate performance among the strongest methods is often close, but the leaders differ substantially across environments. We find that proper hyperparameter tuning frequently reshuffles perceived algorithm rankings and that benchmark composition can produce conflicting conclusions. We also study hyperparameter sensitivity and transfer across environments, identifying a simple strategy for deriving strong default configurations. We use our findings to develop a dataset-conditioned recommender that provides task-specific algorithm recommendations for practitioners. Finally, we release JumpStart: a resource suite containing every trained policy, per-model scores and hyperparameters, strong baselines across all environments, training and evaluation code, and an extensible website for retrieving, analyzing, and contributing results. Together, these resources aim to make offline policy-learning research more reliable and enable future work beyond the scope of this study.

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

Large language models increasingly generate research ideas, yet judging their novelty or feasibility at generation time does not establish whether they anticipate subsequent work. We introduce IdeaForecastBench to evaluate research idea forecasting. Given a community's literature up to a cutoff, a system produces up to five ranked ideas, which are evaluated against later papers. The benchmark comprises 624 rolling episodes across 52 topics, with a fixed retrieve-then-judge protocol and separately reported results from two judges. We compare five history-compression strategies across GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with a learned Mode-Decomposition Forecaster (MDF). Under the primary GPT-4.1-mini judge, Summary improves on Direct in Hit@5 and Precision@5 across all four backbones. Qwen2.5 scores above GPT-4.1, whereas Qwen3.5 scores below it. An outcome-blind assessment finds that Qwen2.5 produces broader forecasts, but does not identify how much breadth contributes to its advantage. Threshold and judge diagnostics further clarify the limits of interpreting realization as precise anticipation. IdeaForecastBench provides a common task for studying which research ideas a community subsequently pursues and how reliably this outcome can be measured.

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavior with 64%-91% accuracy, revealing a separate type of internal prediction features. Building on these prediction features, we introduce a text-level steering method, Future Probe Controlled Generation. FPCG samples multiple candidate sentences and chooses the best one according to a probe predicting the future behavior likelihood. This enables steering with almost no output quality degradation. FPCG also enables steering in several evaluations where activation steering fails. These results show that distinguishing detection and prediction features enables a more nuanced approach to controlling LRM behaviors.

Autoregressive Language Models (LLMs) trained on Next-Token Prediction (NTP) often suffer from ``Topic Drift'' where the generation wanders away from the initial prompt due to a reliance on local associations rather than global planning holtzman2019curious. While scaling model size mitigates this brown2020language, the fundamental myopia of the NTP objective remains. In this work, we introduce the Idea-Gated Transformer, a novel architecture that separates semantic planning from syntactic generation. We introduce an auxiliary ``Idea Head'' trained to predict the bag-of-words distribution for a future context window, creating a latent ``Concept Vector'' that actively gates the main vocabulary during generation. We propose a differentiable gating mechanism that suppresses semantically irrelevant tokens, effectively pruning the search space in real-time. Experiments on WikiText-103 demonstrate that while the Idea-Gated model achieves comparable validation perplexity to a standard GPT-2 baseline, it exhibits significantly superior Domain Retention. Qualitative and quantitative analysis reveals that the gating mechanism successfully locks generation into specific semantic clusters (e.g., Finance, Science) and resists associative drift, offering a parameter-efficient path toward more controllable language modeling.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Data-driven social science research is inherently slow, relying on iterative cycles of observation, hypothesis generation, and experimental validation. While recent data-driven methods promise to accelerate parts of this process, they largely fail to support end-to-end scientific discovery. To address this gap, we introduce EXPERIGEN, an agentic framework that operationalizes end-to-end discovery through a Bayesian optimization inspired two-phase search, in which a Generator proposes candidate hypotheses and an Experimenter evaluates them empirically. Across multiple domains, EXPERIGEN consistently discovers 2-4x more statistically significant hypotheses that are 7-17 percent more predictive than prior approaches, and naturally extends to complex data regimes including multimodal and relational datasets. Beyond statistical performance, hypotheses must be novel, empirically grounded, and actionable to drive real scientific progress. To evaluate these qualities, we conduct an expert review of machine-generated hypotheses, collecting feedback from senior faculty. Among 25 reviewed hypotheses, 88 percent were rated moderately or strongly novel, 70 percent were deemed impactful and worth pursuing, and most demonstrated rigor comparable to senior graduate-level research. Finally, recognizing that ultimate validation requires real-world evidence, we conduct the first A/B test of LLM-generated hypotheses, observing statistically significant results with p less than 1e-6 and a large effect size of 344 percent.

Conditional diffusion models have shown remarkable performance in various generative tasks, but training them requires large-scale datasets that often contain noise in conditional inputs, a.k.a. noisy labels. This noise leads to condition mismatch and quality degradation of generated data. This paper proposes Transition-aware weighted Denoising Score Matching (TDSM) for training conditional diffusion models with noisy labels, which is the first study in the line of diffusion models. The TDSM objective contains a weighted sum of score networks, incorporating instance-wise and time-dependent label transition probabilities. We introduce a transition-aware weight estimator, which leverages a time-dependent noisy-label classifier distinctively customized to the diffusion process. Through experiments across various datasets and noisy label settings, TDSM improves the quality of generated samples aligned with given conditions. Furthermore, our method improves generation performance even on prevalent benchmark datasets, which implies the potential noisy labels and their risk of generative model learning. Finally, we show the improved performance of TDSM on top of conventional noisy label corrections, which empirically proving its contribution as a part of label-noise robust generative models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byeonghu-na/tdsm.

Scientific discovery requires developing worthwhile hypotheses into practical investigations, yet learning from this evolving research process remains challenging. We introduce an operational definition of valuable and testable research hypotheses: evidence-grounded claims about consequential uncertainties, coupled with feasible investigations, explicit decision criteria, and alternative explanations. Our DiscoveryRSI framework develops hypothesis trees through multi-agent evolutionary search, compiles selected investigations into executable Harbor tasks, and recursively learns through three mechanisms: hypothesis credit optimization attributes scientific assessments to documented research contributions; harness replay identifies productive strategies and recurring failures to refine research workflows; and rediscovery applies accepted improvements to new investigations, generating further experience for subsequent learning. We also introduce DFM-Bench, which provides comprehensive assessment of hypothesis quality and cumulative research progress at the levels of hypotheses, revisions, development paths and research runs. Across four life-science domains, automated evaluation shows that hypothesis quality rises from 4.86 for the base model to 5.39 after two rounds of self-improvement, with the large gains in falsifiability and data resolvability. We further validate hypothesis quality through expert review, comparing our DiscoveryRSI-27B with other research agents. Preliminary human assessments show that DiscoveryRSI-27B scores higher than GPT-6 Luna on hypothesis importance and whether claims are plausible and evidence-bounded. DiscoveryRSI-27B achieved a 6.3% rate of hypothesis correspondence with research published after the model cutoff, largely outperform GPT-6 with 2.5% and Claude Opus 5 with 2.3%, while delivering greater human-rated improvement along research paths.

While AI innovation accelerates rapidly, the intellectual process behind breakthroughs -- how researchers identify gaps, synthesize prior work, and generate insights -- remains poorly understood. The lack of structured data on scientific reasoning hinders systematic analysis and development of AI research agents. We introduce Sci-Reasoning, the first dataset capturing the intellectual synthesis behind high-quality AI research. Using community-validated quality signals and an LLM-accelerated, human-verified pipeline, we trace Oral and Spotlight papers across NeurIPS, ICML, and ICLR (2023-2025) to its key predecessors, articulating specific reasoning links in a structured format. Our analysis identifies 15 distinct thinking patterns, with three dominant strategies accounting for 52.7%: Gap-Driven Reframing (24.2%), Cross-Domain Synthesis (18.0%), and Representation Shift (10.5%). The most powerful innovation recipes combine multiple patterns: Gap-Driven Reframing + Representation Shift, Cross-Domain Synthesis + Representation Shift, and Gap-Driven Reframing + Cross-Domain Synthesis. This dataset enables quantitative studies of scientific progress and provides structured reasoning trajectories for training the next generation AI research agents.

Deep research agents are often trained on expensive, environment-grounded tool-use trajectories that require repeated retrieval, document inspection, and report evaluation. We introduce Deep Research Pretraining (DRP), an offline framework that derives predictive navigation supervision from naturally occurring evidence structures. Given a citation-bearing or hyperlinked passage, DRP constructs a proxy research objective, recovers linked evidence and graph-related alternatives, and converts them into search-open-write trajectories. This teaches models what to search for, which documents to inspect, and how to synthesize evidence, without a live retrieval environment or executed policy rollout. We instantiate DRP on scholarly citation graphs (DRP-Paper) and Wikipedia hyperlinks (DRP-Web), continually pretrain separate Qwen3-14B-Base models on 1B tokens, and fine-tune them on controlled fractions of 13K agent trajectories. Across five independently sampled subsets at each low-data budget, both variants consistently outperform matched no-DRP models on DeepResearch Bench. With one quarter of the SFT data, DRP-Web even surpasses a fixed no-DRP full-data checkpoint, with gains transferring to ResearchQA, WebWalkerQA, and SimpleQA. Starting from matched low-data SFT checkpoints, the DRP-Web advantage also persists through subsequent agentic RL. Source-matched and evidence-mismatch controls indicate that these improvements arise from evidence-conditioned navigation rather than domain exposure or agent-format imitation. DRP thus provides a promising complementary approach to trajectory-based agent training.

We define an atomic generation fact f=(u,tau,omega,z;rho), recording the origin, realized transformation, concrete occurrence, generated result and relation role. Compiled into a Generation-Fact Graph (GFG), these facts provide an AI-native, compilable scientific fact substrate preserving generation histories. We establish a GFG-based recursive scientific process in which analysis, intervention, replay and validation form facts for later cycles. Using nanoGPT, we establish unified training-learning dynamics. Training is the evolution of a parameter-optimizer system with state and memory: each actual training action enters the receiving state and produces a finite-amplitude nonlinear functional response conditioned by that state and target-specific update geometry. Learning is the persistent reorganization of distributed functional support by these responses; capability formation, maintenance, decline or recovery becomes observable when target-specific states are evaluated against their readout boundaries. Three primary coordinates - target-boundary state, target-specific update geometry and parameter-Adam receiving state - yield a second-order predictor operating before post-update outputs are read. On held-out runs, it achieved 91.43% accuracy and 91.49% macro-averaged recall across four transitions. We further establish inference as a frozen projection of training-learning dynamics. Component gating and rollback show causal recruitment and non-additive combination of query-conditioned support formed during training, deriving organizational conditions realized by Attention. Controlled feedback indicates possible double-edged reinforcement effects. ResNet/CIFAR-100 and diffusion/CIFAR-10 experiments confirm receiving-state-conditioned responses, persistent support reorganization and frozen inference projection beyond nanoGPT.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Entities in real-world systems often evolve over time: users shift between information consumption patterns, researchers migrate between fields, and firms transition between financial risk states. When such systems are modeled as dynamic graphs, these transitions correspond to nodes whose class labels change between consecutive snapshots, which we call shifters. Correctly classifying shifters is often more consequential than classifying stable nodes with persistent labels, as detecting such transitions enables timely intervention in high-stakes settings. Yet, we identify a systematic failure mode across all major dynamic graph neural network architectures: shifter performance consistently lags behind stable nodes, with errors concentrated on the old label. Our structural analysis traces this failure to embedding inertia: neighborhood aggregation keeps shifter representations anchored to the old-class centroid, and this effect is strongest precisely where it is hardest to correct, namely for shifters whose neighborhoods remain aligned with the old class. Guided by this finding, we propose CHASE, a model-agnostic CHange-Aware framework for Shifting nodEs that wraps any dynamic GNN with targeted components for detecting label shifts and overriding stale neighborhood signals. CHASE consistently improves shifter performance across all tested models and datasets (up to 114.9% and 202.5% improvement on accuracy and F1 score, respectively) while preserving stable-node performance. We additionally contribute three dynamic graph benchmarks with naturally shifting labels, filling a gap in existing resources. The source code is available at https://github.com/jhkim611/CHASE

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained on data mixtures: most data come from web scrapes, while a small portion is curated from high-quality sources with dense domain-specific knowledge. In this paper, we show that when training LLMs on such data mixtures, knowledge acquisition from knowledge-dense datasets, unlike training exclusively on knowledge-dense data (arXiv:2404.05405), does not always follow a smooth scaling law but can exhibit phase transitions with respect to the mixing ratio and model size. Through controlled experiments on a synthetic biography dataset mixed with web-scraped data, we demonstrate that: (1) as we increase the model size to a critical value, the model suddenly transitions from memorizing very few to most of the biographies; (2) below a critical mixing ratio, the model memorizes almost nothing even with extensive training, but beyond this threshold, it rapidly memorizes more biographies. We attribute these phase transitions to a capacity allocation phenomenon: a model with bounded capacity must act like a knapsack problem solver to minimize the overall test loss, and the optimal allocation across datasets can change discontinuously as the model size or mixing ratio varies. We formalize this intuition in an information-theoretic framework and reveal that these phase transitions are predictable, with the critical mixing ratio following a power-law relationship with the model size. Our findings highlight a concrete case where a good mixing recipe for large models may not be optimal for small models, and vice versa.

Explaining deep learning models is essential for clinical integration of medical image analysis systems. A good explanation highlights if a model depends on spurious features that undermines generalization and harms a subset of patients or, conversely, may present novel biological insights. Although techniques like GradCAM can identify influential features, they are measurement tools that do not themselves form an explanation. We propose a human-machine-VLM interaction system tailored to explaining classifiers in computational pathology, including multi-instance learning for whole-slide images. Our proof of concept comprises (1) an AI-integrated slide viewer to run sliding-window experiments to test claims of an explanation, and (2) quantification of an explanation's predictiveness using general-purpose vision-language models. The results demonstrate that this allows us to qualitatively test claims of explanations and can quantifiably distinguish competing explanations. This offers a practical path from explainable AI to explained AI in digital pathology and beyond. Code and prompts are available at https://github.com/nki-ai/x2x.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Sequential recommendation has increasingly shifted toward generative recommenders that combine sequential patterns with semantic item information. Yet these methods are often evaluated on a small set of widely used benchmarks, raising a key question: do these benchmarks actually require the advanced modeling capabilities that modern generative recommenders claim to provide? We conduct a benchmark audit with an intentionally simple graph heuristic. Starting from only the last one or two interacted items, it retrieves candidates from a few-hop item-transition graph and ranks them by item-feature similarity. Despite using no sequence encoder, generative objective, or training, this heuristic matches or outperforms many modern baselines, with relative NDCG@10 improvements of 38.10% and 44.18% over the best competing baseline on Amazon Review Sports and CDs. We show that this behavior reflects shortcut solvability rather than an artifact of one heuristic. We identify three shortcut structures that can make next-item prediction easier than expected: low-branching local transitions, feature-smooth transitions, and limited dependence on long user histories. These shortcuts need not appear together; even one or two strong signals can make simple local retrieval highly competitive, while weakening them makes the benefits of more sophisticated models clearer. Across 14 datasets, model rankings vary substantially with dataset properties, yet the heuristic remains competitive on 10 of them. Our findings suggest that strong performance on standard benchmarks does not always demonstrate advanced sequential, semantic, or generative modeling ability. We call for more careful dataset selection and dataset-level diagnostic analysis when using benchmarks to support claims about new recommendation models.

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.

Large language model agents can plan, invoke tools, and modify external states, yet most systems still take an explicit user instruction as a fixed starting point. Proactive service moves the decision upstream: an agent must infer service opportunities from incomplete environmental and user signals, choose among remaining silent, asking, assisting, and acting, and account for interruption, misunderstanding, overreach, and privacy costs. This survey gives an operational definition centered on initiative and formulates the problem as a partially observable sequential decision process constrained by authorization and risk. The formulation represents timing, content, and delivery within one structured action, while making explicit the option value of waiting, the decision value of questions, and feedback-induced state changes. On this basis, we organize existing methods along one decision pipeline (state and need estimation, intervention gating, action construction, and feedback adaptation) and describe prescribed, predictive, model based, and return optimizing mechanisms as nonexclusive policy-construction components. We further normalize decision units and three-axis evidence descriptors across streaming dialogue, screen, video, software-engineering, and human-agent collaboration resources, and formalize metrics for triggering, timing, calibration, user burden, safety, and policy value. The synthesis shows why offline classification performance alone does not predict deployment benefit and why long-term memory is not a defining condition of proactivity. Reliable proactive service instead requires calibrated incremental intervention value, verifiable authorization, recoverable execution, and counterfactual evidence.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are advancing computational pathology with superior visual understanding capabilities. However, current systems often reduce diagnosis to directly output conclusions without verifiable evidence-linked reasoning, which severely limits clinical trust and hinders expert error rectification. To address these barriers, we construct PathReasoner, the first large-scale dataset of whole-slide image (WSI) reasoning. Unlike previous work reliant on unverified distillation, we develop a rigorous knowledge-guided generation pipeline. By leveraging medical knowledge graphs, we explicitly align structured pathological findings and clinical reasoning with diagnoses, generating over 20K high-quality instructional samples. Based on the database, we propose PathReasoner-R1, which synergizes trajectory-masked supervised fine-tuning with reasoning-oriented reinforcement learning to instill structured chain-of-thought capabilities. To ensure medical rigor, we engineer a knowledge-aware multi-granular reward function incorporating an Entity Reward mechanism strictly aligned with knowledge graphs. This effectively guides the model to optimize for logical consistency rather than mere outcome matching, thereby enhancing robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PathReasoner-R1 achieves state-of-the-art performance on both PathReasoner and public benchmarks across various image scales, equipping pathology models with transparent, clinically grounded reasoning capabilities. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/cyclexfy/PathReasoner-R1.

Natural language inference (NLI) is critical for complex decision-making in biomedical domain. One key question, for example, is whether a given biomedical mechanism is supported by experimental evidence. This can be seen as an NLI problem but there are no directly usable datasets to address this. The main challenge is that manually creating informative negative examples for this task is difficult and expensive. We introduce a novel semi-supervised procedure that bootstraps an NLI dataset from existing biomedical dataset that pairs mechanisms with experimental evidence in abstracts. We generate a range of negative examples using nine strategies that manipulate the structure of the underlying mechanisms both with rules, e.g., flip the roles of the entities in the interaction, and, more importantly, as perturbations via logical constraints in a neuro-logical decoding system. We use this procedure to create a novel dataset for NLI in the biomedical domain, called BioNLI and benchmark two state-of-the-art biomedical classifiers. The best result we obtain is around mid 70s in F1, suggesting the difficulty of the task. Critically, the performance on the different classes of negative examples varies widely, from 97% F1 on the simple role change negative examples, to barely better than chance on the negative examples generated using neuro-logic decoding.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

This paper studies learning logic rules for reasoning on knowledge graphs. Logic rules provide interpretable explanations when used for prediction as well as being able to generalize to other tasks, and hence are critical to learn. Existing methods either suffer from the problem of searching in a large search space (e.g., neural logic programming) or ineffective optimization due to sparse rewards (e.g., techniques based on reinforcement learning). To address these limitations, this paper proposes a probabilistic model called RNNLogic. RNNLogic treats logic rules as a latent variable, and simultaneously trains a rule generator as well as a reasoning predictor with logic rules. We develop an EM-based algorithm for optimization. In each iteration, the reasoning predictor is first updated to explore some generated logic rules for reasoning. Then in the E-step, we select a set of high-quality rules from all generated rules with both the rule generator and reasoning predictor via posterior inference; and in the M-step, the rule generator is updated with the rules selected in the E-step. Experiments on four datasets prove the effectiveness of RNNLogic.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.