Daily Papers

Vision foundation models (VFMs) have achieved strong performance across various vision tasks. However, it still remains challenging to apply VFMs for cross-domain few-shot segmentation (CD-FSS), which segments objects of novel classes under domain shifts using only a few labeled exemplars. The challenge is mainly driven by two factors: (1) limited labeled exemplars per novel class relative to the scale of VFM pre-training, making the model prone to overfitting during retraining, and (2) target-domain shifts underrepresented during pre-training, inducing cross-domain inconsistency and layer-wise sensitivity. To address these issues, we propose Hierarchical Exemplar Representation Adaptation (HERA), a three-stage select-regularize-calibrate VFM-based segmentation framework that learns effectively from limited labels and adapts to novel domains without source-data retraining. We first design Hierarchical Layer Selection (HLS) to adaptively identify the most informative VFM layer using a data-dependent Exemplar Transfer Risk (ETR) computed for each candidate layer. Then, Prior-Guided Regularization (PGR) regularizes interactions on the selected representation, yielding well-structured local signals for the subsequent stage. Furthermore, Pixelwise Adaptive Calibration (PAC) combines the selected representation with the refined interaction maps to calibrate pixel-wise predictions, producing consistent masks. Together, these stages form a hierarchical select-regularize-calibrate pipeline that guides frozen VFM features in new domains while fine-tuning less than 2.7% of parameters at test time. Extensive experiments show that HERA surpasses the state of the art by more than 4.1 mIoU across multiple CD-FSS benchmarks.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

Exemplar-guided image translation, synthesizing photo-realistic images that conform to both structural control and style exemplars, is attracting attention due to its ability to enhance user control over style manipulation. Previous methodologies have predominantly depended on establishing dense correspondences across cross-domain inputs. Despite these efforts, they incur quadratic memory and computational costs for establishing dense correspondence, resulting in limited versatility and performance degradation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach termed Exemplar-guided Image Translation with Brownian-Bridge Diffusion Models (EBDM). Our method formulates the task as a stochastic Brownian bridge process, a diffusion process with a fixed initial point as structure control and translates into the corresponding photo-realistic image while being conditioned solely on the given exemplar image. To efficiently guide the diffusion process toward the style of exemplar, we delineate three pivotal components: the Global Encoder, the Exemplar Network, and the Exemplar Attention Module to incorporate global and detailed texture information from exemplar images. Leveraging Bridge diffusion, the network can translate images from structure control while exclusively conditioned on the exemplar style, leading to more robust training and inference processes. We illustrate the superiority of our method over competing approaches through comprehensive benchmark evaluations and visual results.

Exemplar-based image translation refers to the task of generating images with the desired style, while conditioning on certain input image. Most of the current methods learn the correspondence between two input domains and lack the mining of information within the domains. In this paper, we propose a more general learning approach by considering two domain features as a whole and learning both inter-domain correspondence and intra-domain potential information interactions. Specifically, we propose a Cross-domain Feature Fusion Transformer (CFFT) to learn inter- and intra-domain feature fusion. Based on CFFT, the proposed CFFT-GAN works well on exemplar-based image translation. Moreover, CFFT-GAN is able to decouple and fuse features from multiple domains by cascading CFFT modules. We conduct rich quantitative and qualitative experiments on several image translation tasks, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our approach compared to state-of-the-art methods. Ablation studies show the importance of our proposed CFFT. Application experimental results reflect the potential of our method.

Modern Text-to-Image (T2I) Diffusion models have revolutionized image editing by enabling the generation of high-quality photorealistic images. While the de facto method for performing edits with T2I models is through text instructions, this approach non-trivial due to the complex many-to-many mapping between natural language and images. In this work, we address exemplar-based image editing -- the task of transferring an edit from an exemplar pair to a content image(s). We propose ReEdit, a modular and efficient end-to-end framework that captures edits in both text and image modalities while ensuring the fidelity of the edited image. We validate the effectiveness of ReEdit through extensive comparisons with state-of-the-art baselines and sensitivity analyses of key design choices. Our results demonstrate that ReEdit consistently outperforms contemporary approaches both qualitatively and quantitatively. Additionally, ReEdit boasts high practical applicability, as it does not require any task-specific optimization and is four times faster than the next best baseline.

Recently, unsupervised exemplar-based image-to-image translation, conditioned on a given exemplar without the paired data, has accomplished substantial advancements. In order to transfer the information from an exemplar to an input image, existing methods often use a normalization technique, e.g., adaptive instance normalization, that controls the channel-wise statistics of an input activation map at a particular layer, such as the mean and the variance. Meanwhile, style transfer approaches similar task to image translation by nature, demonstrated superior performance by using the higher-order statistics such as covariance among channels in representing a style. In detail, it works via whitening (given a zero-mean input feature, transforming its covariance matrix into the identity). followed by coloring (changing the covariance matrix of the whitened feature to those of the style feature). However, applying this approach in image translation is computationally intensive and error-prone due to the expensive time complexity and its non-trivial backpropagation. In response, this paper proposes an end-to-end approach tailored for image translation that efficiently approximates this transformation with our novel regularization methods. We further extend our approach to a group-wise form for memory and time efficiency as well as image quality. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our proposed method is fast, both in training and inference, and highly effective in reflecting the style of an exemplar. Finally, our code is available at https://github.com/WonwoongCho/GDWCT.

Exemplar-based semantic image synthesis aims to generate images aligned with given semantic content while preserving the appearance of an exemplar image. Conventional structure-guidance models, such as ControlNet, are limited in that they cannot directly utilize exemplar images as input, relying instead solely on text prompts to control appearance. Recent tuning-free approaches address this limitation by transferring local appearance from the exemplar image to the synthesized image through implicit cross-image matching in the augmented self-attention mechanism of pre-trained diffusion models. However, these methods face challenges when applied to content-rich scenes with significant geometric deformations, such as driving scenes. In this paper, we propose the Appearance Matching Adapter (AM-Adapter), a learnable framework that enhances cross-image matching within augmented self-attention by incorporating semantic information from segmentation maps. To effectively disentangle generation and matching processes, we adopt a stage-wise training approach. Initially, we train the structure-guidance and generation networks, followed by training the AM-Adapter while keeping the other networks frozen. During inference, we introduce an automated exemplar retrieval method to efficiently select exemplar image-segmentation pairs. Despite utilizing a limited number of learnable parameters, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance, excelling in both semantic alignment preservation and local appearance fidelity. Extensive ablation studies further validate our design choices. Code and pre-trained weights will be publicly available.: https://cvlab-kaist.github.io/AM-Adapter/

Exemplar-based image editing applies a transformation defined by a source-target image pair to a new query image. Existing methods rely on a pair-of-pairs supervision paradigm, requiring two image pairs sharing the same edit semantics to learn the target transformation. This constraint makes training data difficult to curate at scale and limits generalization across diverse edit types. We propose Delta-Adapter, a method that learns transferable editing semantics under single-pair supervision, requiring no textual guidance. Rather than directly exposing the exemplar pair to the model, we leverage a pre-trained vision encoder to extract a semantic delta that encodes the visual transformation between the two images. This semantic delta is injected into a pre-trained image editing model via a Perceiver-based adapter. Since the target image is never directly visible to the model, it can serve as the prediction target, enabling single-pair supervision without requiring additional exemplar pairs. This formulation allows us to leverage existing large-scale editing datasets for training. To further promote faithful transformation transfer, we introduce a semantic delta consistency loss that aligns the semantic change of the generated output with the ground-truth semantic delta extracted from the exemplar pair. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Delta-Adapter consistently improves both editing accuracy and content consistency over four strong baselines on seen editing tasks, while also generalizing more effectively to unseen editing tasks. Code will be available at https://delta-adapter.github.io.

We propose a new method for exemplar-free class incremental training of ViTs. The main challenge of exemplar-free continual learning is maintaining plasticity of the learner without causing catastrophic forgetting of previously learned tasks. This is often achieved via exemplar replay which can help recalibrate previous task classifiers to the feature drift which occurs when learning new tasks. Exemplar replay, however, comes at the cost of retaining samples from previous tasks which for many applications may not be possible. To address the problem of continual ViT training, we first propose gated class-attention to minimize the drift in the final ViT transformer block. This mask-based gating is applied to class-attention mechanism of the last transformer block and strongly regulates the weights crucial for previous tasks. Importantly, gated class-attention does not require the task-ID during inference, which distinguishes it from other parameter isolation methods. Secondly, we propose a new method of feature drift compensation that accommodates feature drift in the backbone when learning new tasks. The combination of gated class-attention and cascaded feature drift compensation allows for plasticity towards new tasks while limiting forgetting of previous ones. Extensive experiments performed on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet and ImageNet100 demonstrate that our exemplar-free method obtains competitive results when compared to rehearsal based ViT methods.

In staggered treatment-adoption designs, later-treated units are valid controls for an earlier-treated cohort only until their own treatment begins, so the admissible donor set contracts with event time. Fixing the donor pool at the longest horizon discards temporarily eligible donors, whereas re-estimating synthetic-control weights independently at each horizon can make the counterfactual unstable as donor composition changes. We propose Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment (RT-SC-DiD). For each cohort and event-time horizon, the estimator fits weights on the currently untreated donors while shrinking them toward a transported reference that reallocates the weight of exiting donors to similar surviving donors. A DiD baseline correction removes persistent level differences. We characterize distortion from horizon-by-horizon reoptimization, derive the loading change induced by naive deletion and renormalization, and give a conditional recursive bound for error propagation under an explicitly assumed regularity condition on the transport map. We also introduce donor-support diagnostics and a donor-only placebo procedure for selecting the transport penalty. In an 80-replication pilot comparison and a separate 40-replication-per-value sensitivity analysis, intermediate transport regularization reduces average RMSE relative to independent horizon-specific estimation and strong anchoring. This evidence supports the method's bias-variance motivation but is not a proved guarantee. RT-SC-DiD is intended for settings where later-treated units provide useful short-horizon information and donor support contracts materially over time. Existing staggered synthetic-control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods do not, to our knowledge, explicitly regularize within-cohort weight sequences toward transported references as risk sets contract.

While large text-to-image models are able to synthesize "novel" images, these images are necessarily a reflection of the training data. The problem of data attribution in such models -- which of the images in the training set are most responsible for the appearance of a given generated image -- is a difficult yet important one. As an initial step toward this problem, we evaluate attribution through "customization" methods, which tune an existing large-scale model toward a given exemplar object or style. Our key insight is that this allows us to efficiently create synthetic images that are computationally influenced by the exemplar by construction. With our new dataset of such exemplar-influenced images, we are able to evaluate various data attribution algorithms and different possible feature spaces. Furthermore, by training on our dataset, we can tune standard models, such as DINO, CLIP, and ViT, toward the attribution problem. Even though the procedure is tuned towards small exemplar sets, we show generalization to larger sets. Finally, by taking into account the inherent uncertainty of the problem, we can assign soft attribution scores over a set of training images.

While text-guided image editing has made remarkable progress, it remains limited in structural portrait retouching. Textual descriptions struggle to convey fine-grained changes to facial features and body proportions. To address this gap, we introduce Exemplar-Based Portrait Photo Retouching, where the model is given an exemplar pair and tasked with inferring and applying the same retouching operations to a new query image. Existing exemplar-based editing methods primarily focus on tasks with pronounced visual transformations. In contrast, structural portrait retouching involves extremely delicate and localized modifications, making accurate extraction and transfer of these edits challenging. To tackle this, we propose MirrorPPR, a novel framework designed to capture and transfer subtle structural retouching operations. Our method uses a Retouching Operation Extractor to capture the subtle differences from the exemplar pair. The extracted representations are then injected into a pre-trained Diffusion Transformer (DiT) through a connector and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) modules. Furthermore, constructing perfectly aligned cross-identity training pairs is severely hindered by operation misalignment. To overcome this, we propose an advanced data self-augmentation paradigm that ensures strictly aligned retouching operations. To alleviate data scarcity and support this novel task, we introduce MirrorPPR47M, a large-scale dataset with over 47 million retouched pairs. By structuring the dataset into simulated and professional subsets, we enable progressive curriculum learning to smoothly optimize the network. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MirrorPPR significantly outperforms existing baselines in both retouching quality and identity preservation. The project page is available at https://sjtu-deng-lab.github.io/MirrorPPR.

A dangerous assumption that can be made from prior work on the bias transfer hypothesis (BTH) is that biases do not transfer from pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to adapted models. We invalidate this assumption by studying the BTH in causal models under prompt adaptations, as prompting is an extremely popular and accessible adaptation strategy used in real-world applications. In contrast to prior work, we find that biases can transfer through prompting and that popular prompt-based mitigation methods do not consistently prevent biases from transferring. Specifically, the correlation between intrinsic biases and those after prompt adaptation remain moderate to strong across demographics and tasks -- for example, gender (rho >= 0.94) in co-reference resolution, and age (rho >= 0.98) and religion (rho >= 0.69) in question answering. Further, we find that biases remain strongly correlated when varying few-shot composition parameters, such as sample size, stereotypical content, occupational distribution and representational balance (rho >= 0.90). We evaluate several prompt-based debiasing strategies and find that different approaches have distinct strengths, but none consistently reduce bias transfer across models, tasks or demographics. These results demonstrate that correcting bias, and potentially improving reasoning ability, in intrinsic models may prevent propagation of biases to downstream tasks.

Face re-aging is a prominent field in computer vision and graphics, with significant applications in photorealistic domains such as movies, advertising, and live streaming. Recently, the need to apply face re-aging to non-photorealistic images, like comics, illustrations, and animations, has emerged as an extension in various entertainment sectors. However, the absence of a network capable of seamlessly editing the apparent age on NPR images means that these tasks have been confined to a naive approach, applying each task sequentially. This often results in unpleasant artifacts and a loss of facial attributes due to domain discrepancies. In this paper, we introduce a novel one-stage method for face re-aging combined with portrait style transfer, executed in a single generative step. We leverage existing face re-aging and style transfer networks, both trained within the same PR domain. Our method uniquely fuses distinct latent vectors, each responsible for managing aging-related attributes and NPR appearance. Adopting an exemplar-based approach, our method offers greater flexibility than domain-level fine-tuning approaches, which typically require separate training or fine-tuning for each domain. This effectively addresses the limitation of requiring paired datasets for re-aging and domain-level, data-driven approaches for stylization. Our experiments show that our model can effortlessly generate re-aged images while simultaneously transferring the style of examples, maintaining both natural appearance and controllability.

Subliminal learning lets a student inherit a teacher's hidden trait from distillation data that never names it. We ask when such transfer can be audited before training. The answer is not model identity or scale alone, but channel location: the carrier through which the trait reaches the student. We find three regimes. In a controlled initialization-dependent body channel, a pre-training screen works. Coverage, the cosine between the student's initial distillation update and the teacher's fine-tuning displacement, predicts held-out transfer (Spearman ρapprox 0.95; AUROC 0.997). In pretrained language models, masked single-token traits instead ride convergent vocabulary geometry. This channel is initialization-independent, so initialization-alignment screens, including coverage, are not mechanistic; the useful handles are post-hoc detection and targeted mitigation. Even when a single-token named entity is removed from the loss, the student's held-out probability for that entity rises to 0.40 on average (sim 2500times), and a related semantic class transfers. In an untied-head model, orthogonalizing the trait's output row against entangled neighbours collapses leakage, while equal-size random-subspace edits do not. Thus removing a target string from distillation labels does not remove the corresponding preference: neighbouring tokens can carry it. Finally, conditional behaviours can route through the network body. For sycophancy, with agreement and correction markers masked from the loss, transfer reaches about 0.63 of the teacher's effect, localizes to body computation, and evades four audits across two model families. We scope this as masked transfer of a condition-present policy. Channel location is necessary for deciding which audits can be sound. It is not a deployment-ready screen: an audit used outside its carrier regime can give false assurance.

Recent advancements in language-guided diffusion models for image editing are often bottle-necked by cumbersome prompt engineering to precisely articulate desired changes. An intuitive alternative calls on guidance from in-the-wild image exemplars to help users bring their imagined edits to life. Contemporary exemplar-based editing methods shy away from leveraging the rich latent space learnt by pre-existing large text-to-image (TTI) models and fall back on training with curated objective functions to achieve the task. Though somewhat effective, this demands significant computational resources and lacks compatibility with diverse base models and arbitrary exemplar count. On further investigation, we also find that these techniques restrict user control to only applying uniform global changes over the entire edited region. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for progressive exemplar-driven editing with off-the-shelf diffusion models, dubbed PIXELS, to enable customization by providing granular control over edits, allowing adjustments at the pixel or region level. Our method operates solely during inference to facilitate imitative editing, enabling users to draw inspiration from a dynamic number of reference images, or multimodal prompts, and progressively incorporate all the desired changes without retraining or fine-tuning existing TTI models. This capability of fine-grained control opens up a range of new possibilities, including selective modification of individual objects and specifying gradual spatial changes. We demonstrate that PIXELS delivers high-quality edits efficiently, leading to a notable improvement in quantitative metrics as well as human evaluation. By making high-quality image editing more accessible, PIXELS has the potential to enable professional-grade edits to a wider audience with the ease of using any open-source image generation model.

As the application space of language models continues to evolve, a natural question to ask is how we can quickly adapt models to new tasks. We approach this classic question from a continual learning perspective, in which we aim to continue fine-tuning models trained on past tasks on new tasks, with the goal of "transferring" relevant knowledge. However, this strategy also runs the risk of doing more harm than good, i.e., negative transfer. In this paper, we construct a new benchmark of task sequences that target different possible transfer scenarios one might face, such as a sequence of tasks with high potential of positive transfer, high potential for negative transfer, no expected effect, or a mixture of each. An ideal learner should be able to maximally exploit information from all tasks that have any potential for positive transfer, while also avoiding the negative effects of any distracting tasks that may confuse it. We then propose a simple, yet effective, learner that satisfies many of our desiderata simply by leveraging a selective strategy for initializing new models from past task checkpoints. Still, limitations remain, and we hope this benchmark can help the community to further build and analyze such learners.

Transfer entropy measures directed information flow in time series, and it has become a fundamental quantity in applications spanning neuroscience, finance, and complex systems analysis. However, existing estimation methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality, require restrictive distributional assumptions, or need exponentially large datasets for reliable convergence. We address these limitations in the literature by proposing TENDE (Transfer Entropy Neural Diffusion Estimation), a novel approach that leverages score-based diffusion models to estimate transfer entropy through conditional mutual information. By learning score functions of the relevant conditional distributions, TENDE provides flexible, scalable estimation while making minimal assumptions about the underlying data-generating process. We demonstrate superior accuracy and robustness compared to existing neural estimators and other state-of-the-art approaches across synthetic benchmarks and real data.

This technical report presents EXAONE Forecast for Finance (EXAONE Finance), a financial time series (TS) foundation model (TSFM) tailored to financial forecasting. Recent TSFMs achieve strong zero-shot performance through large-scale pretraining. However, they are primarily developed for general-domain TS and largely rely on self-attention backbones whose computational cost grows quadratically with sequence length and variate count. Moreover, they assume fully observed inputs and are pretrained on corpora that fail to capture the unique dynamics of financial markets. These limitations hinder their applicability to finance, where long, many-channel, intermittently observed panels are common. To address these challenges, EXAONE Finance adopts an attention-free architecture, replacing self-attention with two simple yet effective linear-time operators: 1) a causal 1D convolution for temporal mixing and 2) a group-aware pooling multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for variate mixing. Furthermore, a masked context augmentation exposes the model to contiguous missing spans during training, improving robustness to the missingness pervasive in financial markets. EXAONE Finance is pretrained on a large-scale financial corpus covering not only equities but also foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets, fixed income, and macroeconomic indicators. On FinVerse, a financial forecasting benchmark covering diverse asset classes, EXAONE Finance attains state-of-the-art performance, ranking first across all three evaluation tiers---point-forecast accuracy, cross-sectional asset ranking, and portfolio profitability.

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

Launchpads have become the dominant mechanism for issuing memecoins on blockchains due to their fully automated, no-code creation process. This new issuance paradigm has led to a surge in high-risk token launches, causing substantial financial losses for unsuspecting buyers. In this paper, we introduce MemeTrans, the first dataset for studying and detecting high-risk memecoin launches on Solana. MemeTrans covers over 40k memecoin launches that successfully migrated to the public Decentralized Exchange (DEX), with over 30 million transactions during the initial sale on launchpad and 180 million transactions after migration. To precisely capture launch patterns, we design 122 features spanning dimensions such as context, trading activity, holding concentration, and time-series dynamics, supplemented with bundle-level data that reveals multiple accounts controlled by the same entity. Finally, we introduce an annotation approach to label the risk level of memecoin launches, which combines statistical indicators with a manipulation-pattern detector. Experiments on the introduced high-risk launch detection task suggest that designed features are informative for capturing high-risk patterns and ML models trained on MemeTrans can effectively reduce financial loss by 56.1%. Our dataset, experimental code, and pipeline are publicly available at: https://github.com/git-disl/MemeTrans.

Foundation models have revolutionized general-purpose problem-solving, offering rapid task adaptation through pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent crucial advances in these paradigms reveal the importance of challenging task prioritized sampling to enhance adaptation robustness under distribution shifts. However, ranking task difficulties over iteration as a preliminary step typically requires exhaustive task evaluation, which is practically unaffordable in computation and data-annotation. This study provides a novel perspective to illuminate the possibility of leveraging the dual importance of adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, particularly in scenarios where task evaluation is risky or costly, such as iterative agent-environment interactions for robotic policy evaluation or computationally intensive inference steps for finetuning foundation models. Firstly, we introduce Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS), a framework that bridges the task space and adaptation risk landscape, providing a theoretical foundation for robust active task sampling. MPTS employs a generative model to characterize the episodic optimization process and predicts task-specific adaptation risk via posterior inference. The resulting risk learner amortizes the costly evaluation of task adaptation performance and provably approximates task difficulty rankings. MPTS seamlessly integrates into zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised finetuning settings. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments in pattern recognition using foundation models and sequential decision-making. Our results demonstrate that MPTS significantly enhances adaptation robustness for tail or out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks and improves learning efficiency compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

Evasion attacks are a threat to machine learning models, where adversaries attempt to affect classifiers by injecting malicious samples. An alarming side-effect of evasion attacks is their ability to transfer among different models: this property is called transferability. Therefore, an attacker can produce adversarial samples on a custom model (surrogate) to conduct the attack on a victim's organization later. Although literature widely discusses how adversaries can transfer their attacks, their experimental settings are limited and far from reality. For instance, many experiments consider both attacker and defender sharing the same dataset, balance level (i.e., how the ground truth is distributed), and model architecture. In this work, we propose the DUMB attacker model. This framework allows analyzing if evasion attacks fail to transfer when the training conditions of surrogate and victim models differ. DUMB considers the following conditions: Dataset soUrces, Model architecture, and the Balance of the ground truth. We then propose a novel testbed to evaluate many state-of-the-art evasion attacks with DUMB; the testbed consists of three computer vision tasks with two distinct datasets each, four types of balance levels, and three model architectures. Our analysis, which generated 13K tests over 14 distinct attacks, led to numerous novel findings in the scope of transferable attacks with surrogate models. In particular, mismatches between attackers and victims in terms of dataset source, balance levels, and model architecture lead to non-negligible loss of attack performance.

Transfer learning is beneficial by allowing the expressive features of models pretrained on large-scale datasets to be finetuned for the target task of smaller, more domain-specific datasets. However, there is a concern that these pretrained models may come with their own biases which would propagate into the finetuned model. In this work, we investigate bias when conceptualized as both spurious correlations between the target task and a sensitive attribute as well as underrepresentation of a particular group in the dataset. Under both notions of bias, we find that (1) models finetuned on top of pretrained models can indeed inherit their biases, but (2) this bias can be corrected for through relatively minor interventions to the finetuning dataset, and often with a negligible impact to performance. Our findings imply that careful curation of the finetuning dataset is important for reducing biases on a downstream task, and doing so can even compensate for bias in the pretrained model.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

Transfer learning approaches have shown to significantly improve performance on downstream tasks. However, it is common for prior works to only report where transfer learning was beneficial, ignoring the significant trial-and-error required to find effective settings for transfer. Indeed, not all task combinations lead to performance benefits, and brute-force searching rapidly becomes computationally infeasible. Hence the question arises, can we predict whether transfer between two tasks will be beneficial without actually performing the experiment? In this paper, we leverage explainability techniques to effectively predict whether task pairs will be complementary, through comparison of neural network activation between single-task models. In this way, we can avoid grid-searches over all task and hyperparameter combinations, dramatically reducing the time needed to find effective task pairs. Our results show that, through this approach, it is possible to reduce training time by up to 83.5% at a cost of only 0.034 reduction in positive-class F1 on the TREC-IS 2020-A dataset.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

Data-centric curation pipelines frequently rely on model confidence scores to flag and filter noisy or mislabeled training instances. Evaluating this filtering convention on a large-scale consumer lending sample (LendingClub, N = 1,344,936) uncovers an underlying demographic asymmetry: high-income defaulters are disproportionately classified as label noise relative to low-income defaulters (Cramer's V approximately 0.03-0.07). Re-examining this behavior through the lens of equal opportunity [Hardt et al., 2016] reveals a far more severe discrepancy: a 16.86 percentage point gap in true positive rate (recall) between high- and low-income borrowers who ultimately defaulted. Implementing a sequential feature-blinding methodology allows us to isolate the drivers of this disparity across three distinct mechanisms: (1) direct reliance on self-reported applicant income; (2) algorithmic absorption of upstream institutional bias encoded within origination interest rates; and (3) a residual disparity (3.55 percentage points in cross-validation; 2.56 percentage points on a held-out test partition, Z = -4.04, p < 0.0001) that remains even after purging both income and interest rates from the model. Out-of-sample signed SHAP valuations demonstrate that this residual gap is maintained by structural proxies, most notably loan amount and home ownership status. These empirical findings show that simply blinding an algorithm to sensitive attributes fails to ensure fairness when institutional pricing decisions and behavioral proxy variables collectively reconstruct the omitted signals. We outline the practical implications of these findings for auditing data-centric AI workflows within regulated financial institutions.

Moving ML-mediated decision making onto privacy-preserving clients decentralises the economic decision along with the inference. Shared budget constraints then depend on information that cannot be globally current, creating an information-structure failure that conventional pacing is not designed to solve. We study this information misalignment in an auction-logic-faithful on-device simulation with 36 campaigns and 50 devices. Accounting is in dimensionless integer score units; no currency semantics are claimed. Across 30 paired demand paths, proportional Even pacing overspends 17.77% after one tick of staleness and 1,669.31% after 50 ticks under the original 20-times budget pressure. The effect does not depend on that severe a budget: at two-times pressure, 50-tick overspend remains 106.95%. A visible-budget no-sale guard makes zero-lag compliance exact at this score-unit granularity, yet leaves 11.88% overspend at one tick because other devices' debits remain invisible. A declared bursty, heterogeneous-device sweep retains a strictly increasing mean lag curve. We derive a finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps and find positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell. A second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units: 98.23% of rival auctions at one tick admit a profitable deviation. An executable implementation-level counterexample isolates the runner-up's multiplier in the winner's price. Critical-base-bid payment is per-auction DSIC conditional on current multipliers, but does not establish dynamic truthfulness and does not repair base-value ranking disagreement.

Large language models offer broad capabilities, but adapting them to evolving domains, tools, and requirements often entails repeated post-training. Autonomous systems automate parts of this process by proposing updates, training candidates, and using evaluation feedback to select subsequent proposals. As evidence accumulates, a central problem emerges: which past update evidence remains actionable after subsequent training has changed the parent model? An update's effect depends on its parent, data, and training stage. Treating past success as context-free permission can waste compute. If the resulting child is promoted, it can also degrade the subsequent training trajectory. We formulate this problem as conditional experience transfer and introduce Boundary-Calibrated Intervention Transfer (BCIT), a method that authorizes experience reuse before weight-changing training. BCIT binds an observed effect to its source context, checks applicability conditions, vetoes candidates with named hard conflicts, and obtains current-state evidence through a bounded training trial when needed. Fully trained candidates still face a shared adoption rule, and only observed events extend memory. On one 4B model adapted across finance reasoning, text-to-SQL, and function calling, candidate updates exhibit heterogeneous target and retention effects across the evaluated contexts. Under matched candidates, evidence, and compute, BCIT authorizes fewer harmful updates and attains higher equal-budget final-model quality than the evaluated alternatives. These results support treating experience authorization as a distinct problem in autonomous post-training.

Reusing pretrained medical-imaging models offers an alternative to training from scratch. A model trained for the same task may perform poorly at a new hospital because imaging protocols and preprocessing differ. Effective adaptation depends on the model architecture, domain shift, and available labels and compute. Adaptation can improve scores on a small labeled set yet reduce performance on unseen data. We present MedAdaptAgent, an automatic harness that turns a supplied model, target data, and a free-text request into a new-site adaptation workflow. Its LLM-driven Adaptation Planner uses model-site evidence to choose compatible experiments and revise subsequent adjustments. The harness requires evidence of improvement over the pretrained model, then delivers the selected model as a complete, runnable package. Evaluation spans 26 segmentation and classification transfers across architectures and compute settings, with segmentation annotation budgets ranging from zero-shot transfer to few-shot adaptation. With 20 local annotations, mean segmentation Dice rises from 0.483 to 0.774 across 10 transfers, a 60.1% relative gain, with no harmful replacements. Mean classification AUROC rises from 0.810 to 0.837 across 13 transfers, a 3.4% relative gain. Comparing adapted models with the pretrained model reduces harmful classification replacements by 30.8% versus selecting the highest-scoring model on the available labels, using identical candidates. Seven public-model deployments demonstrate adaptation and reproducible package delivery across contrast and modality shifts. A CT-to-MRI study extends the evaluation to four LLM planners, including two open-weight models. We release the code on GitHub.

On-chain transfer volume is often used to describe activity in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), although recorded transfers may reflect very different economic functions, including token creation, destruction, issuer-related operations, and movements between other addresses. Ownership measures face a similar problem because a large address balance may belong to a pool or intermediary that represents multiple investors. We address these two measurement problems by decomposing transfer activity and making ownership coverage explicit. Transfer turnover is calculated before and after observable event categories are separated, using the same asset, observation window, and supply denominator. For ownership, we compare concentration measured against total supply with concentration among the addresses that remain after identified intermediaries are excluded. Using Ethereum-based tokenized funds from December 2025 to August 2026, we find that transfer classification can materially change measured turnover. We also show that removing an intermediary can lower concentration when measured against total supply while concentration among the remaining addresses increases. Transfer activity and address concentration need to be interpreted with their underlying transaction functions and ownership coverage in mind. These measures provide evidence about liquidity-related activity, but they do not directly measure market liquidity. The code and data used in the analysis are available at https://github.com/atytmr07/rwa-liquidity.

Transfer learning has become a central paradigm in modern machine learning, yet it suffers from the long-standing problem of negative transfer, where leveraging source representations can harm rather than help performance on the target task. Although empirical remedies have been proposed, there remains little theoretical understanding of how to reliably avoid negative transfer. In this paper, we investigate a simple yet remarkably effective strategy: augmenting frozen, pretrained source-side features with a trainable target-side encoder that adapts target features to capture residual signals overlooked by models pretrained on the source data. We show this residual feature integration strategy is sufficient to provably prevent negative transfer, by establishing theoretical guarantees that it has no worse convergence rate than training from scratch under the informative class of target distributions up to logarithmic factors, and that the convergence rate can transition seamlessly from nonparametric to near-parametric when source representations are informative. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work that ensures protection against negative transfer. We carry out extensive numerical experiments across image, text and tabular benchmarks, and empirically verify that the method consistently safeguards performance under distribution shift, label noise, semantic perturbation, and class imbalance. We additionally demonstrate that this residual integration mechanism uniquely supports adapt-time multimodality extension, enabling a pretrained single-cell foundation model to incorporate spatial signals for lymph-node anatomical classification despite the source model being trained without them. Our study thus advances the theory of safe transfer learning, and provides a principled approach that is simple, robust, architecture-agnostic, and broadly applicable.

Language-model agents can accumulate interaction feedback, but reliably turning that feedback into reusable experience remains challenging. Existing methods either optimize external experience scaffolds or train experience-related behavior on specific task distributions, leaving open whether experience learning itself can become a transferable model capability. Training such a capability calls for supervision beyond isolated tasks, which mainly support in-episode problem solving rather than revealing what knowledge remains useful across episodes. In this work, we introduce MetaExp, a scalable framework that trains this capability through verifiable task families with controlled cross-task structure. Each family preserves a reusable factor while varying task-specific realizations, enabling transfer without direct solution reuse. We propose two complementary designs: Shared-Tool families keep black-box tools fixed across tasks to elicit operational experience, while Shared-Workflow families preserve latent procedures across changing realizations to elicit procedural experience. We scale environments under both designs, collect and filter sequential interaction trajectories, and fine-tune Qwen3.5-122B-A10B on 4,956 trajectories from 1,000 task families. With parameters frozen during downstream evolution, MetaExp improves by +8.5 points on SpreadsheetBench, peaks at +2.3 on APEX-Agents, and improves by +14.8 on AutomationBench. The gains persist under domain-excluded training, supporting experience learning as a transferable capability for continued non-parametric improvement after deployment.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Equivariance theory predicts that an architectural symmetry prior reduces sample complexity by a factor of |G|; this is widely cited but rarely measured as a scaling law with controls that separate the prior from its confounds. On a controlled C_n-symmetric task, we report three findings. First, a wrong-group control with identical orbit size and matched compute is worse than no constraint (joint pairwise CI [+0.79, +3.26] excludes zero, robust across estimators); misaligned constraint is actively harmful, not merely unhelpful. Second, an augmentation baseline equipped with test-time orbit averaging matches the equivariant model exactly -- bit-identical per-epoch validation curves across matched cells -- so the architecture-vs-augmentation gap is conditional on asymmetric test-time computation, not unconditional. Third, the relative exchange rate beta_diff = 1.28 is consistent in sign and order of magnitude with the theoretical 1.0 (single-level CI [+0.92, +2.05]); the more conservative two-level bootstrap (seeds x group sizes) widens this to [-0.63, +1.72], including zero, and a finer-N replication on a sqrt(2)-spaced grid is inconclusive (point estimate -0.82). The methodological contributions -- the relative-rate estimator that cancels the shared-difficulty confound, the wrong-group control, and a pre-specified failure taxonomy -- transfer to any inductive bias whose strength can be parameterised. Honest scoping: the primary estimator beta_diff was adopted post-hoc after the initial analysis revealed a positive-slope identifiability problem; the design was never externally pre-registered; and the headline number rests on an OLS slope over seven group sizes on a coarse N grid. This is an exploratory study, not a confirmatory measurement; the wrong-group result is the cleanest finding and the one we report with the most confidence. A registered replication on fresh seeds is future work.

Transfer learning is a widely-used paradigm in deep learning, where models pre-trained on standard datasets can be efficiently adapted to downstream tasks. Typically, better pre-trained models yield better transfer results, suggesting that initial accuracy is a key aspect of transfer learning performance. In this work, we identify another such aspect: we find that adversarially robust models, while less accurate, often perform better than their standard-trained counterparts when used for transfer learning. Specifically, we focus on adversarially robust ImageNet classifiers, and show that they yield improved accuracy on a standard suite of downstream classification tasks. Further analysis uncovers more differences between robust and standard models in the context of transfer learning. Our results are consistent with (and in fact, add to) recent hypotheses stating that robustness leads to improved feature representations. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/Microsoft/robust-models-transfer .

Class Incremental Learning (CIL) is challenging due to catastrophic forgetting. On top of that, Exemplar-free Class Incremental Learning is even more challenging due to forbidden access to previous task data. Recent exemplar-free CIL methods attempt to mitigate catastrophic forgetting by synthesizing previous task data. However, they fail to overcome the catastrophic forgetting due to the inability to deal with the significant domain gap between real and synthetic data. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel exemplar-free CIL method. Our method adopts multi-distribution matching (MDM) diffusion models to unify quality and bridge domain gaps among all domains of training data. Moreover, our approach integrates selective synthetic image augmentation (SSIA) to expand the distribution of the training data, thereby improving the model's plasticity and reinforcing the performance of our method's ultimate component, multi-domain adaptation (MDA). With the proposed integrations, our method then reformulates exemplar-free CIL into a multi-domain adaptation problem to implicitly address the domain gap problem to enhance model stability during incremental training. Extensive experiments on benchmark class incremental datasets and settings demonstrate that our method excels previous exemplar-free CIL methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Language-guided image editing has achieved great success recently. In this paper, for the first time, we investigate exemplar-guided image editing for more precise control. We achieve this goal by leveraging self-supervised training to disentangle and re-organize the source image and the exemplar. However, the naive approach will cause obvious fusing artifacts. We carefully analyze it and propose an information bottleneck and strong augmentations to avoid the trivial solution of directly copying and pasting the exemplar image. Meanwhile, to ensure the controllability of the editing process, we design an arbitrary shape mask for the exemplar image and leverage the classifier-free guidance to increase the similarity to the exemplar image. The whole framework involves a single forward of the diffusion model without any iterative optimization. We demonstrate that our method achieves an impressive performance and enables controllable editing on in-the-wild images with high fidelity.

Editing materials of objects in images based on exemplar images is an active area of research in computer vision and graphics. We propose MARBLE, a method for performing material blending and recomposing fine-grained material properties by finding material embeddings in CLIP-space and using that to control pre-trained text-to-image models. We improve exemplar-based material editing by finding a block in the denoising UNet responsible for material attribution. Given two material exemplar-images, we find directions in the CLIP-space for blending the materials. Further, we can achieve parametric control over fine-grained material attributes such as roughness, metallic, transparency, and glow using a shallow network to predict the direction for the desired material attribute change. We perform qualitative and quantitative analysis to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method. We also present the ability of our method to perform multiple edits in a single forward pass and applicability to painting. Project Page: https://marblecontrol.github.io/

We study whether the localized numerical operations and integrative judgments of financial analysis benefit from the same form of LLM specialization. Larix maps a 16-lens European listed-real-estate analysis framework to eight lens-aligned specialists; we compare a frontier LLM under monolithic versus specialist-decomposed prompting while holding the model, source evidence, task instructions, output schema, and scoring fixed. Across 19 firms spanning seven regulatory wrappers, decomposition improves the numerical-task aggregate by 15.8 percentage points but does not reliably improve, and can reduce, performance on judgment tasks, a pattern stable across four frozen-template dispatches; a single-agent control given the complete framework does not reproduce the numerical gain. Post-training Qwen3.5-9B with GRPO using task-aligned structured rewards then raises the development-split score by 12.0 points and the judgment aggregate by 14.2 points, with gains on all four sub-ceiling tasks; the gains transfer to unseen firms (+15.2 points overall; +40.4 on covenant stress) and to unseen regulatory wrappers (+4.3), with positive transfer on all three anti-memorization splits. Prompt-level decomposition thus improves modular numerical execution, whereas targeted parameter adaptation improves integrative financial judgment.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) perform well on multimodal benchmarks but lag behind humans and specialized models on visual perception tasks like depth estimation or object counting. Finetuning on one task can unpredictably affect performance on others, making task-specific finetuning challenging. In this paper, we address this challenge through a systematic study of task transferability. We examine how finetuning a VLM on one perception task affects its zero-shot performance on others. We introduce Perfection Gap Factor (PGF), a normalized metric that measures change in performance as a result of task transfer. We utilize PGF to compute Task Transferability, which captures both the breadth and the magnitude of transfer induced by a source task. Using three open-weight VLMs evaluated across 13 perception tasks, we construct a task transfer graph that reveals previously unobserved relationships among perception tasks. Our analysis uncovers patterns of positive and negative transfer, identifies groups of tasks that mutually influence each other, organizes tasks into personas based on their transfer behavior and demonstrates how PGF can guide data selection for more efficient training. These findings highlight both opportunities for positive transfer and risks of negative interference, offering actionable guidance for advancing VLMs.

We study behavioral alignment and representation dynamics of large language model (LLM) agents in financial decision environments. TradeArena, an auditable trading-agent testbed with risk reports, execution simulation, memory, and replayable trajectories, lets us analyze how rationales, positions, and interventions evolve under market stress. Code and data artifacts are available through the https://github.com/weich97/TradeArena.git{TradeArena repository}. We find pre-failure signatures: planning embeddings drift from normal centroids, fused plan-risk representations separate normal from pre-drawdown states, and local manifolds exhibit effective-rank contraction. Across 80 rolling failure anchors and eight LLM trajectories, this pattern persists across hash, LSA, Transformer, and white-box hidden-state probes. Stress tests with CoT-free target weights, lexical controls, OHLCV noise, and false audits show that rationale-level contraction can vanish without rationales, while intent-space and fused signatures remain informative. Structured risk feedback can act as an external alignment signal without fine-tuning, but not as a universal performance enhancer: true audit feedback improves calibration for some models, returns for others, and exposes cases where placebo or hidden feedback has higher short-horizon return but weaker alignment diagnostics. A 51-stock intraday experiment reveals a correlation blind spot: LLM rationales justify exposure to coupled assets that the risk layer clips. Finally, a financial-audit task suite shifts comparison from ``which model trades best'' to whether models can audit trajectories, respect execution boundaries, reproduce artifacts, and avoid claim overreach. These results support a research claim, not a profitability claim: auditable risk feedback and representation trajectories reveal when LLM financial reasoning is aligning, drifting, or failing.

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) often suffers from reward over-optimization, where a policy model hacks the reward signals to achieve high scores while producing low-quality outputs. Our theoretical analysis shows that the key lies in reward misspecification at the high-reward tail: the inability to reliably distinguish Excellent responses from merely Great ones. This motivate us to focus on the high-reward region. However, such tail examples are scarce under the base LLM. While off-policy exemplars (e.g. from stronger models or rewrites) are easier to obtain, naively training on them yields a misspecified reward for the policy we aim to align. To address this, we study rubric-based rewards. By design, rubrics can leverage off-policy examples while remaining insensitive to their artifacts. To elicit rubrics that capture the high-reward tail, we highlight the importance of distinguishing among great and diverse responses, and introduce a workflow to implement this idea. We empirically demonstrate that rubric-based rewards substantially mitigate reward over-optimization and deliver effective LLM post-training improvements. Our code can be accessed at https://github.com/Jun-Kai-Zhang/rubrics.git .

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities, but their exposure bias problem, described as the input mismatch between training and sampling, lacks in-depth exploration. In this paper, we systematically investigate the exposure bias problem in diffusion models by first analytically modelling the sampling distribution, based on which we then attribute the prediction error at each sampling step as the root cause of the exposure bias issue. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions to this issue and propose an intuitive metric for it. Along with the elucidation of exposure bias, we propose a simple, yet effective, training-free method called Epsilon Scaling to alleviate the exposure bias. We show that Epsilon Scaling explicitly moves the sampling trajectory closer to the vector field learned in the training phase by scaling down the network output (Epsilon), mitigating the input mismatch between training and sampling. Experiments on various diffusion frameworks (ADM, DDPM/DDIM, EDM, LDM), unconditional and conditional settings, and deterministic vs. stochastic sampling verify the effectiveness of our method. Remarkably, our ADM-ES, as a SOTA stochastic sampler, obtains 2.17 FID on CIFAR-10 under 100-step unconditional generation. The code is available at https://github.com/forever208/ADM-ES and https://github.com/forever208/EDM-ES.

As reasoning capacity and deployment scope grow in tandem, large language models (LLMs) gain the capacity to engage in behaviors that serve their own objectives, a class of risks we term Emergent Strategic Reasoning Risks (ESRRs). These include, but are not limited to, deception (intentionally misleading users or evaluators), evaluation gaming (strategically manipulating performance during safety testing), and reward hacking (exploiting misspecified objectives). Systematically understanding and benchmarking these risks remains an open challenge. To address this gap, we introduce ESRRSim, a taxonomy-driven agentic framework for automated behavioral risk evaluation. We construct an extensible risk taxonomy of 7 categories, which is decomposed into 20 subcategories. ESRRSim generates evaluation scenarios designed to elicit faithful reasoning, paired with dual rubrics assessing both model responses and reasoning traces, in a judge-agnostic and scalable architecture. Evaluation across 11 reasoning LLMs reveals substantial variation in risk profiles (detection rates ranging 14.45%-72.72%), with dramatic generational improvements suggesting models may increasingly recognize and adapt to evaluation contexts.

Transfer learning is a popular method for tuning pretrained (upstream) models for different downstream tasks using limited data and computational resources. We study how an adversary with control over an upstream model used in transfer learning can conduct property inference attacks on a victim's tuned downstream model. For example, to infer the presence of images of a specific individual in the downstream training set. We demonstrate attacks in which an adversary can manipulate the upstream model to conduct highly effective and specific property inference attacks (AUC score > 0.9), without incurring significant performance loss on the main task. The main idea of the manipulation is to make the upstream model generate activations (intermediate features) with different distributions for samples with and without a target property, thus enabling the adversary to distinguish easily between downstream models trained with and without training examples that have the target property. Our code is available at https://github.com/yulongt23/Transfer-Inference.

Transfer learning leverages feature representations of deep neural networks (DNNs) pretrained on source tasks with rich data to empower effective finetuning on downstream tasks. However, the pretrained models are often prohibitively large for delivering generalizable representations, which limits their deployment on edge devices with constrained resources. To close this gap, we propose a new transfer learning pipeline, which leverages our finding that robust tickets can transfer better, i.e., subnetworks drawn with properly induced adversarial robustness can win better transferability over vanilla lottery ticket subnetworks. Extensive experiments and ablation studies validate that our proposed transfer learning pipeline can achieve enhanced accuracy-sparsity trade-offs across both diverse downstream tasks and sparsity patterns, further enriching the lottery ticket hypothesis.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

Transfer learning is a powerful technique for knowledge-sharing between different tasks. Recent work has found that the representations of models with certain invariances, such as to adversarial input perturbations, achieve higher performance on downstream tasks. These findings suggest that invariance may be an important property in the context of transfer learning. However, the relationship of invariance with transfer performance is not fully understood yet and a number of questions remain. For instance, how important is invariance compared to other factors of the pretraining task? How transferable is learned invariance? In this work, we systematically investigate the importance of representational invariance for transfer learning, as well as how it interacts with other parameters during pretraining. To do so, we introduce a family of synthetic datasets that allow us to precisely control factors of variation both in training and test data. Using these datasets, we a) show that for learning representations with high transfer performance, invariance to the right transformations is as, or often more, important than most other factors such as the number of training samples, the model architecture and the identity of the pretraining classes, b) show conditions under which invariance can harm the ability to transfer representations and c) explore how transferable invariance is between tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/tillspeicher/representation-invariance-transfer.

On-policy distillation (OPD) transfers teacher capabilities by supervising trajectories sampled from the student's own policy, yet its generalization behavior remains poorly understood, as most studies evaluate OPD on a single domain and on benchmarks close to the training data. We present a controlled study that varies one generalization factor at a time, from in-domain distribution shifts to cross-domain transfer and the multi-teacher setting. We find that OPD transfers a teacher's reasoning behavior rather than its answers to particular problems: training difficulty barely matters, and even problems the teacher never solves are useful. Transfer depends strongly on the origin relationship between teacher and student: same-origin pairs bring the student close to the teacher across languages, reasoning horizons, and even other domains, whereas cross-origin pairs mostly fit the trained distribution. This broad reach is a double-edged sword: since routing prompts to domain experts cannot confine each teacher's influence, combining them yields a mixture-dependent seesaw among their capabilities. These results clarify when OPD generalizes and offer a useful perspective for diagnosing multi-teacher OPD.

The growth of time-series datasets and foundation models has made dataset comparison a central part of time-series workflows. Assessing source-target transfer before model adaptation requires similarity estimates that can summarize transfer-related dataset relationships without exhaustive source-target evaluation over every candidate pair. Many metrics have been proposed for measuring similarity between time-series datasets, but they capture different dataset relationships and vary in how well they align with downstream utility across tasks. We evaluate this gap by measuring the correlation between source-target similarity scores and downstream forecasting errors in out-of-distribution and transfer-learning settings. We propose Domain-Integrated Similarity Cost (DISC), a learnable aggregation framework that uses calibration transfer observations to select, weight, and combine similarity metrics for different downstream tasks. By integrating complementary metric values, DISC better distinguishes source-target dataset differences that matter for downstream behavior. After calibration, DISC scores source-target pairs using only their similarity-metric values and yields higher alignment than single-metric references on the reported split. These results show that time-series dataset similarity is task-dependent, and that learned metric integration provides a stronger proxy for downstream transfer behavior than manually selecting one similarity metric.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Continual Learning (CL) methods focus on accumulating knowledge over time while avoiding catastrophic forgetting. Recently, Wortsman et al. (2020) proposed a CL method, SupSup, which uses a randomly initialized, fixed base network (model) and finds a supermask for each new task that selectively keeps or removes each weight to produce a subnetwork. They prevent forgetting as the network weights are not being updated. Although there is no forgetting, the performance of SupSup is sub-optimal because fixed weights restrict its representational power. Furthermore, there is no accumulation or transfer of knowledge inside the model when new tasks are learned. Hence, we propose ExSSNeT (Exclusive Supermask SubNEtwork Training), that performs exclusive and non-overlapping subnetwork weight training. This avoids conflicting updates to the shared weights by subsequent tasks to improve performance while still preventing forgetting. Furthermore, we propose a novel KNN-based Knowledge Transfer (KKT) module that utilizes previously acquired knowledge to learn new tasks better and faster. We demonstrate that ExSSNeT outperforms strong previous methods on both NLP and Vision domains while preventing forgetting. Moreover, ExSSNeT is particularly advantageous for sparse masks that activate 2-10% of the model parameters, resulting in an average improvement of 8.3% over SupSup. Furthermore, ExSSNeT scales to a large number of tasks (100). Our code is available at https://github.com/prateeky2806/exessnet.

A small trainable advisor can steer a frozen language-model executor using natural-language advice. In addition to learning from task rewards, the advisor can use feedback from completed interactions to improve its advice. However, a plausible correction need not change execution, yet learning from such corrections can still affect the advisor's future decisions in other contexts. In a shared-parameter model, we prove that such corrections can limit learning if their targets favor useful advice less strongly than those of other corrections. Keeping them less often than the rest improves the model's eventual performance compared to learning from every correction. Motivated by this, our method, Advisor Self-Distillation (AdviSD), pairs outcome-based reinforcement learning with self-distillation from a feedback-conditioned copy of the advisor selectively. Reflection proposes corrections, and the advisor scores the same recorded executor response with and without its issued advice, using the magnitude of the difference to select decisions for supervision. This approach does not require executor likelihoods or additional executor rollouts. Experiments with Qwen3-8B advisors for Gemini and Claude show that AdviSD outperforms advisor-GRPO by 4.2-6.4 percentage points on BFCL-v3 and by 3.9-5.1 score points on EnvScaler. The trained advisors generalize to out-of-domain tasks and transfer across different executor versions and model families. AdviSD also beats matched-count random selection, supporting the value of its selection rule.

The recent surge in research interest in applying large language models (LLMs) to decision-making tasks has flourished by leveraging the extensive world knowledge embedded in LLMs. While there is a growing demand to tailor LLMs for custom decision-making tasks, finetuning them for specific tasks is resource-intensive and may diminish the model's generalization capabilities. Moreover, state-of-the-art language models like GPT-4 and Claude are primarily accessible through API calls, with their parametric weights remaining proprietary and unavailable to the public. This scenario emphasizes the growing need for new methodologies that allow learning from agent experiences without requiring parametric updates. To address these problems, we introduce the Experiential Learning (ExpeL) agent. Our agent autonomously gathers experiences and extracts knowledge using natural language from a collection of training tasks. At inference, the agent recalls its extracted insights and past experiences to make informed decisions. Our empirical results highlight the robust learning efficacy of the ExpeL agent, indicating a consistent enhancement in its performance as it accumulates experiences. We further explore the emerging capabilities and transfer learning potential of the ExpeL agent through qualitative observations and additional experiments.

Transfer learning is a classic paradigm by which models pretrained on large "upstream" datasets are adapted to yield good results on "downstream" specialized datasets. Generally, more accurate models on the "upstream" dataset tend to provide better transfer accuracy "downstream". In this work, we perform an in-depth investigation of this phenomenon in the context of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on the ImageNet dataset, which have been pruned - that is, compressed by sparsifying their connections. We consider transfer using unstructured pruned models obtained by applying several state-of-the-art pruning methods, including magnitude-based, second-order, re-growth, lottery-ticket, and regularization approaches, in the context of twelve standard transfer tasks. In a nutshell, our study shows that sparse models can match or even outperform the transfer performance of dense models, even at high sparsities, and, while doing so, can lead to significant inference and even training speedups. At the same time, we observe and analyze significant differences in the behaviour of different pruning methods.

Identifying risky traders with high profits in financial markets is crucial for market makers, such as trading exchanges, to ensure effective risk management through real-time decisions on regulation compliance and hedging. However, capturing the complex and dynamic behaviours of individual traders poses significant challenges. Traditional classification and anomaly detection methods often establish a fixed risk boundary, failing to account for this complexity and dynamism. To tackle this issue, we propose a profit-aware risk ranker (PA-RiskRanker) that reframes the problem of identifying risky traders as a ranking task using Learning-to-Rank (LETOR) algorithms. Our approach features a Profit-Aware binary cross entropy (PA-BCE) loss function and a transformer-based ranker enhanced with a self-cross-trader attention pipeline. These components effectively integrate profit and loss (P&L) considerations into the training process while capturing intra- and inter-trader relationships. Our research critically examines the limitations of existing deep learning-based LETOR algorithms in trading risk management, which often overlook the importance of P&L in financial scenarios. By prioritising P&L, our method improves risky trader identification, achieving an 8.4% increase in F1 score compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) ranking models like Rankformer. Additionally, it demonstrates a 10%-17% increase in average profit compared to all benchmark models.

An established way to improve the transferability of black-box evasion attacks is to craft the adversarial examples on an ensemble-based surrogate to increase diversity. We argue that transferability is fundamentally related to uncertainty. Based on a state-of-the-art Bayesian Deep Learning technique, we propose a new method to efficiently build a surrogate by sampling approximately from the posterior distribution of neural network weights, which represents the belief about the value of each parameter. Our extensive experiments on ImageNet, CIFAR-10 and MNIST show that our approach improves the success rates of four state-of-the-art attacks significantly (up to 83.2 percentage points), in both intra-architecture and inter-architecture transferability. On ImageNet, our approach can reach 94% of success rate while reducing training computations from 11.6 to 2.4 exaflops, compared to an ensemble of independently trained DNNs. Our vanilla surrogate achieves 87.5% of the time higher transferability than three test-time techniques designed for this purpose. Our work demonstrates that the way to train a surrogate has been overlooked, although it is an important element of transfer-based attacks. We are, therefore, the first to review the effectiveness of several training methods in increasing transferability. We provide new directions to better understand the transferability phenomenon and offer a simple but strong baseline for future work.

Deepfake detectors remain vulnerable to transfer-based black-box attacks, in which adversarial examples are generated on a source surrogate model and transferred to a target model, unknown to the attacker. Yet how source--target compatibility shapes attack success remains poorly understood. Prior studies evaluate limited detector pools and rarely disentangle architectural from training factors. We conduct a controlled evaluation of adversarial transferability across 60 detectors spanning six backbones, two pretraining regimes, and five training-data configurations, using two attack procedures: AutoAttack (AA) and the Carlini--Wagner attack with Expectation over Transformation (CW--EOT). Matched comparisons reveal significantly higher transfer when source and target share an exact backbone, architecture family, pretraining regime, or training data. This compatibility structure is attack-dependent: exact backbone compatibility has the largest effect under AA, whereas shared pretraining and training data have the largest effects under CW--EOT. When transfer is averaged across non-target sources, mean attack success rate (ASR) is 7.21% under AA and 19.52% under CW--EOT. By contrast, a multi-source oracle combining both attacks attains a \(64.48\%\) mean ASR after excluding exact backbone and training-data matches, showing that source averaging can substantially understate target vulnerability. We release 240,000 adversarially perturbed images, complete pairwise transfer results, detector configurations, and evaluation code. These findings establish source--target compatibility and source-model selection as central dimensions of credible transfer-based black-box robustness evaluation.

In modern large-scale deep learning, a prevalent and effective workflow for solving low-data problems is adapting powerful pre-trained foundation models (FMs) to new tasks via parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT). However, while empirically effective, the resulting solutions lack generalisation guarantees to certify their accuracy - which may be required for ethical or legal reasons prior to deployment in high-importance applications. In this paper we develop a novel transfer learning approach that is designed to facilitate non-vacuous learning theoretic generalisation guarantees for downstream tasks, even in the low-shot regime. Specifically, we first use upstream tasks to train a distribution over PEFT parameters. We then learn the downstream task by a sample-and-evaluate procedure -- sampling plausible PEFTs from the trained diffusion model and selecting the one with the highest likelihood on the downstream data. Crucially, this confines our model hypothesis to a finite set of PEFT samples. In contrast to learning in the typical continuous hypothesis spaces of neural network weights, this facilitates tighter risk certificates. We instantiate our bound and show non-trivial generalization guarantees compared to existing learning approaches which lead to vacuous bounds in the low-shot regime.

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however, relies not only on the quality of the momentum signal but also on the efficacy of the volatility estimator. Yet many of the existing studies have always considered these two factors to be independent. Inspired by recent progress in Multi-Task Learning (MTL), we present a new approach using MTL in a deep neural network architecture that jointly learns portfolio construction and various auxiliary tasks related to volatility, such as forecasting realized volatility as measured by different volatility estimators. Through backtesting from January 2000 to December 2020 on a diversified portfolio of continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that even after accounting for transaction costs of up to 3 basis points, our approach outperforms existing TSMOM strategies. Moreover, experiments confirm that adding auxiliary tasks indeed boosts the portfolio's performance. These findings demonstrate that MTL can be a powerful tool in finance.

Financial time-series pretraining typically learns from masked observations, contrastive relations, or future outcomes---yet existing objectives struggle to simultaneously avoid future-supervision uncertainty and maintain return-prediction alignment. We propose DIVINE (DIVerse INdicator rEconstruction), a simple cross-market pretraining framework that reconstructs technical indicators from raw OHLCV history. Computed from observed price-volume history, technical indicators provide consistently defined supervision across markets while summarizing diverse market dynamics with established relevance to return prediction. Pretrained jointly on six-equity market datasets, DIVINE reconstructs 77 targets derived from 16 standard indicators and transfers only the learned encoder to downstream stock ranking. Across all six markets, DIVINE achieves the strongest average portfolio performance with a lightweight 0.05M-parameter encoder, outperforming pretraining baselines and matching or exceeding substantially larger financial foundation models, while remaining robust and data-efficient. Systematic analyses show that indicator diversity and market diversity provide complementary gains in transfer. Together, these results suggest that supervision design and cross-market diversity---rather than model scale---are the key drivers of strong, transferable financial representations.

Transfer learning is an essential technique for many machine learning/AI models of complex structures such as large language models and generative AI. The essence of transfer learning is to leverage knowledge from resolved source tasks for a new target task, especially when the sample size m of the training data for the latter is low. In this work, we rigorously analyze the potential benefit of transfer learning in terms of sample efficiency. Specifically, taking an optimal transport viewpoint of transfer learning, we find that when the data dimension d is higher than 3, the sample complexity for transfer learning is O(m^{-(α+1)/d}), with α indicating the smoothness of the data distribution, as opposed to the O(m^{-p/d}) sample complexity for direct learning with p indicating the smoothness of the optimal target model. Our finding theoretically supports a better sample efficiency for transfer learning, when the target task is optimizing over a family of not-so-smooth models (i.e., highly complex networks with the possible use of non-smooth activation functions). Using image classification as an example, we numerically demonstrate the sample efficiency for transfer learning, that is, in the data hungry regime, the model performance can be significantly improved by transfer learning.

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the financial domain has opened new avenues for quantitative trading, particularly through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the challenge of effectively synthesizing insights from diverse data sources and integrating both structured and unstructured data persists. This paper presents TradeExpert, a novel framework that employs a mix of experts (MoE) approach, using four specialized LLMs, each analyzing distinct sources of financial data, including news articles, market data, alpha factors, and fundamental data. The insights of these expert LLMs are further synthesized by a General Expert LLM to make a final prediction or decision. With specific prompts, TradeExpert can be switched between the prediction mode and the ranking mode for stock movement prediction and quantitative stock trading, respectively. In addition to existing benchmarks, we also release a large-scale financial dataset to comprehensively evaluate TradeExpert's effectiveness. Our experimental results demonstrate TradeExpert's superior performance across all trading scenarios.

Existing agent-safety evaluation has focused mainly on externally induced risks. Yet agents may still enter unsafe trajectories under benign conditions. We study this complementary but underexplored setting through the lens of intrinsic risk, where intrinsic failures remain latent, propagate across long-horizon execution, and eventually lead to high-consequence outcomes. To evaluate this setting, we introduce non-attack intrinsic risk auditing and present HINTBench, a benchmark of 629 agent trajectories (523 risky, 106 safe; 33 steps on average) supporting three tasks: risk detection, risk-step localization, and intrinsic failure-type identification. Its annotations are organized under a unified five-constraint taxonomy. Experiments reveal a substantial capability gap: strong LLMs perform well on trajectory-level risk detection, but their performance drops to below 35 Strict-F1 on risk-step localization, while fine-grained failure diagnosis proves even harder. Existing guard models transfer poorly to this setting. These findings establish intrinsic risk auditing as an open challenge for agent safety.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

One desired capability for machines is the ability to transfer their knowledge of one domain to another where data is (usually) scarce. Despite ample adaptation of transfer learning in various deep learning applications, we yet do not understand what enables a successful transfer and which part of the network is responsible for that. In this paper, we provide new tools and analyses to address these fundamental questions. Through a series of analyses on transferring to block-shuffled images, we separate the effect of feature reuse from learning low-level statistics of data and show that some benefit of transfer learning comes from the latter. We present that when training from pre-trained weights, the model stays in the same basin in the loss landscape and different instances of such model are similar in feature space and close in parameter space.

Exemplar-Free Class Incremental Learning (EFCIL) aims to learn from a sequence of tasks without having access to previous task data. In this paper, we consider the challenging Cold Start scenario in which insufficient data is available in the first task to learn a high-quality backbone. This is especially challenging for EFCIL since it requires high plasticity, which results in feature drift which is difficult to compensate for in the exemplar-free setting. To address this problem, we propose a simple and effective approach that consolidates feature representations by regularizing drift in directions highly relevant to previous tasks and employs prototypes to reduce task-recency bias. Our method, called Elastic Feature Consolidation (EFC), exploits a tractable second-order approximation of feature drift based on an Empirical Feature Matrix (EFM). The EFM induces a pseudo-metric in feature space which we use to regularize feature drift in important directions and to update Gaussian prototypes used in a novel asymmetric cross entropy loss which effectively balances prototype rehearsal with data from new tasks. Experimental results on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet, ImageNet-Subset and ImageNet-1K demonstrate that Elastic Feature Consolidation is better able to learn new tasks by maintaining model plasticity and significantly outperform the state-of-the-art.

As concerns surrounding AI-driven labor displacement intensify in knowledge-intensive sectors, existing benchmarks fail to measure performance on tasks that define practical professional expertise. Finance, in particular, has been identified as a domain with high AI exposure risk, yet lacks robust benchmarks to track real-world developments. This gap is compounded by the absence of clear accountability mechanisms in current Large Language Model (LLM) deployments. To address this, we introduce FrontierFinance, a long-horizon benchmark of 25 complex financial modeling tasks across five core finance models, requiring an average of over 18 hours of skilled human labor per task to complete. Developed with financial professionals, the benchmark reflects industry-standard financial modeling workflows and is paired with detailed rubrics for structured evaluation. We engage human experts to define the tasks, create rubrics, grade LLMs, and perform the tasks themselves as human baselines. We demonstrate that our human experts both receive higher scores on average, and are more likely to provide client-ready outputs than current state-of-the-art systems.

Transfer learning has recently shown significant performance across various tasks involving deep neural networks. In these transfer learning scenarios, the prior distribution for downstream data becomes crucial in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). While previous works proposed the prior over the neural network parameters centered around the pre-trained solution, such strategies have limitations when dealing with distribution shifts between upstream and downstream data. This paper introduces nonparametric transfer learning (NPTL), a flexible posterior sampling method to address the distribution shift issue within the context of nonparametric learning. The nonparametric learning (NPL) method is a recent approach that employs a nonparametric prior for posterior sampling, efficiently accounting for model misspecification scenarios, which is suitable for transfer learning scenarios that may involve the distribution shift between upstream and downstream tasks. Through extensive empirical validations, we demonstrate that our approach surpasses other baselines in BMA performance.

This study examines cross-asset connectedness in an international financial network of major exchange rates, gold futures, and Bitcoin. Moving beyond the conventional net transmitter--receiver classification, we characterize asset roles through three complementary dimensions: direct spillover transmission, stationary source-tracing dynamics, and multistep upstream connectivity. Return spillovers are estimated using VAR generalized forecast-error variance decomposition (VAR-GFEVD). The positive pairwise net-spillover structure is then mapped into a row-stochastic Markov kernel whose transitions trace dominant net-spillover sources in the reverse direction of the original transmission edges. A stationary departure flux describes long-run movement in this source-tracing chain, while Viral Centrality is evaluated by the deterministic probability-propagation algorithm of Fink et al. to approximate multistep upstream reach. Empirically, gold futures emerge as the dominant direct net transmitter and the leading stationary source-tracing node, but do not have the largest Viral Centrality. Several exchange-rate nodes classified as direct net receivers have relatively high Viral Centrality, indicating broad conditional access to upstream source nodes. Bitcoin occupies an intermediate role. An auxiliary specification including the U.S. Dollar Index yields qualitatively similar role differentiation. The results show that direct connectedness, stationary source tracing, and approximate multistep upstream reach cannot be inferred from NET spillovers alone. All diffusion interpretations are descriptive and conditional on the estimated network, row normalization, and restart closure.

Fine-tuning is a widespread technique that allows practitioners to transfer pre-trained capabilities, as recently showcased by the successful applications of foundation models. However, fine-tuning reinforcement learning (RL) models remains a challenge. This work conceptualizes one specific cause of poor transfer, accentuated in the RL setting by the interplay between actions and observations: forgetting of pre-trained capabilities. Namely, a model deteriorates on the state subspace of the downstream task not visited in the initial phase of fine-tuning, on which the model behaved well due to pre-training. This way, we lose the anticipated transfer benefits. We identify conditions when this problem occurs, showing that it is common and, in many cases, catastrophic. Through a detailed empirical analysis of the challenging NetHack and Montezuma's Revenge environments, we show that standard knowledge retention techniques mitigate the problem and thus allow us to take full advantage of the pre-trained capabilities. In particular, in NetHack, we achieve a new state-of-the-art for neural models, improving the previous best score from 5K to over 10K points in the Human Monk scenario.

Given a set of pre-trained models, how can we quickly and accurately find the most useful pre-trained model for a downstream task? Transferability measurement is to quantify how transferable is a pre-trained model learned on a source task to a target task. It is used for quickly ranking pre-trained models for a given task and thus becomes a crucial step for transfer learning. Existing methods measure transferability as the discrimination ability of a source model for a target data before transfer learning, which cannot accurately estimate the fine-tuning performance. Some of them restrict the application of transferability measurement in selecting the best supervised pre-trained models that have classifiers. It is important to have a general method for measuring transferability that can be applied in a variety of situations, such as selecting the best self-supervised pre-trained models that do not have classifiers, and selecting the best transferring layer for a target task. In this work, we propose TMI (TRANSFERABILITY MEASUREMENT WITH INTRA-CLASS FEATURE VARIANCE), a fast and accurate algorithm to measure transferability. We view transferability as the generalization of a pre-trained model on a target task by measuring intra-class feature variance. Intra-class variance evaluates the adaptability of the model to a new task, which measures how transferable the model is. Compared to previous studies that estimate how discriminative the models are, intra-class variance is more accurate than those as it does not require an optimal feature extractor and classifier. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that TMI outperforms competitors for selecting the top-5 best models, and exhibits consistently better correlation in 13 out of 17 cases.

Financial return forecasting is a difficult test case for time-series foundation models (TSFMs) due to low signal-to-noise ratios, structural breaks, heavy tails, and weak persistence. This paper benchmarks pretrained TSFMs against train-from-scratch neural baselines in a deliberately conservative financial setting. We evaluate TimeGPT/TimeGPT-LH, TimesFM-2.5, Moirai-2.0, Chronos, and Chronos-2 against NBEATS, NHITS, PatchTST, iTransformer, and KAN on five liquid U.S. equities (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, JPM, META) using linear and log returns. Models are compared under an equalized context budget, a rolling-origin protocol, and against random-walk benchmarks. We provide a theoretical framing of pretraining as an inductive prior, linking PAC-Bayes transfer intuition, information-theoretic predictability limits, and attention geometry. This clarifies why strong model rankings need not imply economically meaningful predictability in noisy markets. Pragmatically, pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins. Moirai-2.0 and TimesFM-2.5 achieve the strongest average ranks, leading tasks for AAPL, JPM, GOOG, and AMZN, while Chronos wins the remaining AMZN task. However, the iTransformer baseline wins both META tasks, showing local supervised learning can still outperform generic pretraining for specific assets. Crucially, gains over the random-walk benchmark are small and sparse. A one-sided Diebold-Mariano test rejects equal or inferior predictive accuracy only for Chronos on AMZN and Moirai-2.0 on GOOG. We conclude that TSFMs serve as useful practical priors that reduce model-development costs in low-data financial forecasting, but are not universal engines for statistically reliable alpha generation in realistic empirical deployment.

Building a world model requires a state representation useful for planning and decision-making---potentially over tasks unknown at training time. In the context of financial markets, planning and decision-making may require a model to reason about market-wide conditions, asset-specific expected returns, liquidity, volatility, and cross-asset relationships. Yet financial representation learning has largely been evaluated on individual predictive tasks, oftentimes on a single time period using comparatively narrow datasets. We address this through three primary contributions. First, we introduce Market-1T, a dataset containing nearly one trillion observations across U.S. equities from 2008 to 2025 at 1 Hz resolution. Second, we develop and implement a rigorous evaluation protocol. Third, we conduct a systematic large-scale study of financial representation learning, comparing 18 encoder-training strategies across nearly two decades of market regimes. We evaluate learned representations both by their predictive utility on common finance tasks and through probes of latent structure. We find that encoders with similar predictive performance can organize market state very differently. Collectively, we establish a foundation for training and evaluating financial market representations in support of world models such as DINO-WM, V-JEPA 2, and LeWM.

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Financial transaction fraud prevention faces challenges such as complex relationship structures, concealed behavioral patterns, and dynamically changing data distribution. Discrimination models relying solely on independent sample features are insufficient to fully characterize the risks of group collaboration and chain transfers within transaction networks. This paper proposes a graph neural network representation learning and risk discrimination framework for financial transaction fraud prevention. It integrates transaction records and identity information into node attributes and constructs a transaction graph based on shared attributes and interaction consistency to explicitly model inter-transaction relationships. In model design, a multi-layer message passing mechanism is employed to aggregate neighborhood information, learn node embedding representations containing structural context semantics, and output transaction-level fraud probability and risk scores through a lightweight risk discrimination head. A weighted supervision objective is introduced to mitigate training bias caused by class imbalance, and structural consistency regularization constraints are combined to suppress the impact of noisy edges on representation drift, thereby improving the stability and usability of risk characterization. Experiments are conducted on a publicly available financial transaction dataset, comparing various methods in the same direction and comprehensively evaluating them under a unified evaluation protocol. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other methods in risk ranking and probability calibration quality, validating the effectiveness of graph structure modeling and representation learning collaboration in financial transaction fraud prevention.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Ensuring effective transfer learning for vision-language models without compromising their generalization performance is crucial. However, many existing methods overlook data characteristics and simply reuse the training strategies adopted during pre-training. Specifically, they treat same-class samples as distinct instances and transform images independently of their paired text prompts, which makes model learning more difficult. We address these limitations through transformation-aware prompt conditioning and a re-calibrated contrastive loss. Fixed text descriptors identify the transformations applied to paired images, providing transformation-level consistency without altering class semantics. This design aligns the image and text branches at the transformation level, enabling richer representations while preserving the models' ability to generalize. In addition, our loss function mitigates positive-gradient dilution in soft-target cross-entropy when each anchor has multiple valid positives. During transfer, our approach treats same-class samples as positives rather than distinct instances, enabling the model to learn domain-specific features more effectively. Experiments across distribution shift, transfer learning, and few-shot settings demonstrate consistent improvements over existing approaches. Source code for our method is available at https://github.com/SoongE/ReCalCon.

In deep reinforcement learning (RL) research, there has been a concerted effort to design more efficient and productive exploration methods while solving sparse-reward problems. These exploration methods often share common principles (e.g., improving diversity) and implementation details (e.g., intrinsic reward). Prior work found that non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) require exploration to efficiently adapt to changes in the environment with online transfer learning. However, the relationship between specific exploration characteristics and effective transfer learning in deep RL has not been characterized. In this work, we seek to understand the relationships between salient exploration characteristics and improved performance and efficiency in transfer learning. We test eleven popular exploration algorithms on a variety of transfer types -- or ``novelties'' -- to identify the characteristics that positively affect online transfer learning. Our analysis shows that some characteristics correlate with improved performance and efficiency across a wide range of transfer tasks, while others only improve transfer performance with respect to specific environment changes. From our analysis, make recommendations about which exploration algorithm characteristics are best suited to specific transfer situations.

Foundation models are high-capacity networks pretrained once on broad data and then reused across many tasks. This chapter introduces them through the idea of a transferable representation, the internal description a network forms during training, which, rather than the fitted task, is what carries over to new problems. We develop the idea from first principles for an astronomical reader, starting from why a representation matters and what makes one useful, and then surveying the architectures, self-supervised objectives, scaling, adaptation, and cross-modal learning that produce one. A theme throughout is the distinction between these methods and the goal they serve. The presence of a transformer, a self-supervised objective, and large-scale pretraining does not by itself make a model a foundation model, since the defining property is that the learned representation transfers, as tested by its ability to work on new tasks with little or no task-specific training data (few-shot and zero-shot learning). We then consider astronomy, where data are abundant but labels are scarce and simulations often stand in for ground truth. Here we offer a cautious reading of the current literature, in which many models adopt the architecture of foundation models while clear demonstrations of transfer across instruments, populations, and tasks remain comparatively rare. This is to be expected, since robust transfer beyond language is still uncommon even in vision and the wider physical sciences, and whether further scaling or a different account of representation will close the gap remains an open question. We close by placing the goal within the broader aim of machine intelligence and outlining the evidence that would mark real progress.

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of emergence. Interpreting these events is critical for system safety. This paper proposes the first framework for explaining emergent extreme events in multi-agent systems, aiming to answer three fundamental questions: When does the event originate? Who drives it? And what behaviors contribute to it? Specifically, we adapt the Shapley value to faithfully attribute the occurrence of extreme events to each action taken by agents at different time steps, i.e., assigning an attribution score to the action to measure its influence on the event. We then aggregate the attribution scores along the dimensions of time, agent, and behavior to quantify the risk contribution of each dimension. Finally, we design a set of metrics based on these contribution scores to characterize the features of extreme events. Experiments across diverse multi-agent system scenarios (economic, financial, and social) demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework and provide general insights into the emergence of extreme phenomena.

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

Agent frameworks increasingly package procedural knowledge as skills: instruction files an agent reads on demand, while public libraries now hold thousands of them. Which skill to read has thus become a decision the policy itself makes in the middle of an episode, yet no existing signal trains it. We show that the default remedy, outcome-rewarded RL over the candidate slate, cannot teach it, for a structural reason we identify and name selector credit starvation: under a broadcast, sequence-level advantage, the few tokens that name the chosen skill carry a vanishing share of the loss, and the credit they inherit is increasingly wrong-signed as trajectories lengthen. A correct choice is punished whenever the execution after it fails, even though the choice itself is among the most valuable decisions in the trajectory. Auditing a completed run's own training artifacts confirms all three properties, each worsening monotonically with horizon. SkillGate removes the failure by construction: it partitions the token support into two disjoint credit channels, outcome credit reaching only execution tokens, and a separate action-local advantage reaching exactly the skill-naming tokens, positive only when a trajectory's single read is the correct one. On five agentic benchmarks under a 16-candidate slate, SkillGate lifts a 9B policy from 40.8% to 53.2% trial success, well ahead of the identical budget spent on outcome reward alone, while cutting exposure to misleading candidates by two thirds and reading fewer skills.

Diffusion models have become a core paradigm for multimedia generation, offering powerful concept-driven controllability for personalization, semantic editing, and selective unlearning. However, as semantic control extends beyond natural-language prompts to learned embeddings and intervention pipelines, the safety and governance of these systems become increasingly difficult to evaluate in a unified manner, especially for safety-sensitive, identity-linked, and other privacy-relevant concepts. Existing studies mainly rely on heuristic audits, adversarial probing, or task-specific erasure benchmarks, and therefore provide limited support for systematic comparison across models, conditioning channels, and deployment conditions. We present a concept-level probabilistic audit and reporting framework for diffusion models. We formalize governance-relevant concept behaviors as Bernoulli semantic events induced by stochastic generation, and define a Concept Risk Operator that maps model-channel configurations to structured risk profiles, enabling comparison across prompting interfaces, learned embedding channels, models, and recorded conditions. We apply sample-level post-hoc calibration and configuration-level risk aggregation, and show that probability error can change thresholded actions near policy boundaries. Experiments on SD1.5, SD2.1, and SDXL reveal consistent yet non-uniform operational risk patterns across concept families, channels, recorded conditions, and shifted protocols. In particular, embedding-based access and obfuscated prompts expose risks often understated by standard-prompt evaluation. A pooled multi-protocol calibrator improves held-out probability reliability, but we do not claim transfer from a standard-only calibrator. CLRC provides a common audit schema for probabilistic and decision-aware governance of multimedia generation systems.

Reality may establish that an outcome occurred without identifying which evolving procedure produced it or why. This distinction matters in production ML systems whose code, configuration, and artifacts change while external feedback accumulates. We examine it in a human-directed, agent-engineered quantitative trading system, using oracle to mean an external source of realized outcomes rather than a complete correctness specification. Across one year, the account gained and outperformed a broad market index, while annual alpha was not statistically distinguishable from zero under the main retrospective specification. Retrospectively selected subperiods include adverse relative performance and conditional candidate-level weakness under declared approximate references. Engineering records document changes during the episode, and complete recommendation-to-runtime binding is unavailable. The archive does not establish a common frozen instance or a unique cause. The case motivates an outcome--diagnosis gap: outcome evidence, evaluated-object identity, and causal explanation support distinct claims. We distinguish frozen instances, pre-specified adaptive procedures, and ad-hoc development; organize archive-relative claim identifiability and an evidence hierarchy; and propose a prospective production-binding protocol. An illustrative compatible-history example shows how factual binding can resolve a recommendation's referent without supplying its counterfactual effect. The protocol is proposed rather than prospectively validated. External feedback constrains outcome claims, while provenance and additional identification structure determine the resolution of diagnosis.

In transfer learning, the choice of source model largely influences the performance on a target dataset. Still, selecting a fitting source remains a challenging task, especially in medical imaging where one has to decide between models pre-trained on off-the-shelf options, such as ImageNet, and domain specific datasets. Transferability estimation (TE) metrics address this problem by aiming to predict the best performing source model in a computationally cost effective way. However, previous work has reported conflicting TE metric performances due to differences in experimental setups. Moreover, most TE metrics are designed for and evaluated on natural images, while being optimized for accuracy, whereas in medical imaging metrics that are more robust to class imbalance are typically used. We study the impact of varying the target dataset as an isolated factor, by constructing miniature populations of different sample sizes and random seeds. In addition, we investigate the influence of the evaluation metric used to obtain the reference ranking. We find that small modifications to the target dataset change the rankings. Furthermore, we show that the choice of evaluation metric affects the reference rankings and therefore the evaluation of TE metrics. Overall, we observe a low agreement between rankings from TE metrics and reference. The code, model checkpoints and data splits used in this work are available through https://github.com/niclasclassen/robustness-of-transferability-estimation-metrics-for-medical-imaging.

When a new release of a foundation model is published, practitioners typically need to repeat full fine-tuning, even if the same task has already been solved in the previous version. A promising alternative is to reuse the parameter changes (i.e., task vectors) that capture how a model adapts to a specific task. However, they often fail to transfer across different pre-trained models due to their misaligned parameter space. In this work, we show that the key to successful transfer lies in the sign structure of the gradients of the new model. Based on this insight, we propose GradFix, a novel method that approximates the ideal gradient sign structure and leverages it to transfer knowledge using only a handful of labeled samples. Notably, this requires no additional fine-tuning: the adaptation is achieved by computing a few gradients at the target model and masking the source task vector accordingly. This yields an update that is locally aligned with the target loss landscape, effectively rebasing the task vector onto the new pre-training. We provide a theoretical guarantee that our method ensures first-order descent. Empirically, we demonstrate significant performance gains on vision and language benchmarks, consistently outperforming naive task vector addition and few-shot fine-tuning.

Despite extensive research into mitigating distribution shifts, many existing algorithms yield inconsistent performance, often failing to outperform baseline Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) across diverse scenarios. Furthermore, high algorithmic complexity frequently limits interpretability and offers only an indirect means of addressing spurious correlations. We propose eXplaining to Learn (eX2L): an interpretable, explanation-based framework that decorrelates confounding features from a classifier's latent representations during training. eX2L achieves this by penalizing the similarity between Grad-CAM activation maps generated by a primary label classifier and those from a concurrently trained confounder classifier. On the rigorous Spawrious Many-to-Many Hard Challenge benchmark, eX2L achieves an average accuracy (AA) of 82.24% +/- 3.87% and a worst-group accuracy (WGA) of 66.31% +/- 8.73%, outperforming the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) by 5.49% and 10.90%, respectively. Beyond its competitive performance, eX2L demonstrates that functional domain invariance can be achieved by explicitly decoupling label and nuisance attributes at the group level.

Transfer learning is crucial for medical imaging, yet the selection of source datasets - which can impact the generalizability of algorithms, and thus patient outcomes - often relies on researchers' intuition rather than systematic principles. This study investigates these decisions through a task-based survey with machine learning practitioners. Unlike prior work that benchmarks models and experimental setups, we take a human-centered HCI perspective on how practitioners select source datasets. Our findings indicate that choices are task-dependent and influenced by community practices, dataset properties, and computational (data embedding), or perceived visual or semantic similarity. However, similarity ratings and expected performance are not always aligned, challenging a traditional "more similar is better" view. Participants often used ambiguous terminology, which suggests a need for clearer definitions and HCI tools to make them explicit and usable. By clarifying these heuristics, this work provides practical insights for more systematic source selection in transfer learning.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

We present EXE-GAN, a novel exemplar-guided facial inpainting framework using generative adversarial networks. Our approach can not only preserve the quality of the input facial image but also complete the image with exemplar-like facial attributes. We achieve this by simultaneously leveraging the global style of the input image, the stochastic style generated from the random latent code, and the exemplar style of exemplar image. We introduce a novel attribute similarity metric to encourage networks to learn the style of facial attributes from the exemplar in a self-supervised way. To guarantee the natural transition across the boundaries of inpainted regions, we introduce a novel spatial variant gradient backpropagation technique to adjust the loss gradients based on the spatial location. Extensive evaluations and practical applications on public CelebA-HQ and FFHQ datasets validate the superiority of EXE-GAN in terms of the visual quality in facial inpainting.

We understand little about how capabilities acquired in one language carry over to another, or what governs this transfer: evaluations rely on incomparable, saturation-prone datasets and rarely examine its determinants jointly. Identifying what predicts transfer would let us avoid exhaustive evaluation across all language pairs and let developers target the factors that limit performance in low-resource languages. To evaluate cross-lingual capability transfer, we introduce Multilingual GSM-Symbolic, an extensible multilingual mathematical dataset covering 30,000 item-matched question-answer pairs and spanning 15 languages. It utilises symbolic templates to prevent overfitting and ensure generalisation by allowing generation of millions of high-quality variations from a single sample. Using Multilingual GSM-Symbolic, we quantify the largest determinants of capability as model size (β= 1.77), language resource level (β= 0.77), reasoning (β= 0.67) and typological distance (β= -0.25). This joint estimation allows these determinants to be expressed in terms of one another: a 32B model evaluated in Marathi performs like a 10B model in English. Our findings have important implications for model developers, showing that model size and reasoning narrow the performance gap between low- and high-resource languages (β= -0.27 and β= -0.20, respectively), while similar levers have little or no effect on typologically distant languages. Overall, our analysis framework explains 92% of between-language variation, but only 23% of the model-by-language variation, and predicts a model's performance on an unseen language within 6.0pp (r=.96). Incorporating measurements from just 10 templates in the target language reduces this to 4.19pp, enabling reasonable estimates of performance with little or no downstream dataset.

Pathology diagnosis based on EEG signals and decoding brain activity holds immense importance in understanding neurological disorders. With the advancement of artificial intelligence methods and machine learning techniques, the potential for accurate data-driven diagnoses and effective treatments has grown significantly. However, applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets presents diverse challenges at multiple levels. The scarcity of labelled data, especially in low regime scenarios with limited availability of real patient cohorts due to high costs of recruitment, underscores the vital deployment of scaling and transfer learning techniques. In this study, we explore a real-world pathology classification task to highlight the effectiveness of data and model scaling and cross-dataset knowledge transfer. As such, we observe varying performance improvements through data scaling, indicating the need for careful evaluation and labelling. Additionally, we identify the challenges of possible negative transfer and emphasize the significance of some key components to overcome distribution shifts and potential spurious correlations and achieve positive transfer. We see improvement in the performance of the target model on the target (NMT) datasets by using the knowledge from the source dataset (TUAB) when a low amount of labelled data was available. Our findings indicate a small and generic model (e.g. ShallowNet) performs well on a single dataset, however, a larger model (e.g. TCN) performs better on transfer and learning from a larger and diverse dataset.

AI evaluation can support the wrong inference when an in-domain benchmark success does not survive distribution shift, or when the benchmark endpoint is entangled with a design factor. We study this problem in CRISPRi perturbation-effect prediction, evaluating a frozen Geneformer representation under a locked, pre-registered protocol: heads and model selection were frozen before test evaluation; the protocol required external outcome labels to remain withheld until final unblinding; and analysis-governing decisions were fixed before the evaluations they govern. In-distribution on the Virtual Cell Challenge (VCC), the frozen representation carries measurable predictive information beyond a dimension-matched random-feature control (Delta R^2 = +0.1645, 95% CI [+0.1375, +0.1920]), satisfying the pre-registered informativeness gate required before interpreting transfer. It then fails zero-shot transfer on both external screens (Spearman rho = -0.139 and -0.267), lying below that control on each. Adding a predefined magnitude block improves the representation externally (Delta rho = +0.032 and +0.143) but, under the frozen primary head, does not rescue transfer: both remain negative. A pre-registered, count-adjusted max-response secondary is positively associated with the outcome on both screens; we report it as correlational and secondary, not as a recovered magnitude signal. Finally, the VCC endpoint is strongly sample-size associated: a count-only linear model reaches R^2 = +0.4325, versus +0.2589 for the four magnitude scalars; adding those scalars to cell count improves R^2 by only +0.0017, so much of the aggregate-magnitude signal overlaps with cell count. This case study shows how locking the evaluation, harmonizing the measured endpoint, and separating primary from secondary evidence can change the inference supported by an AI benchmark.

Knowledge transfer between heterogeneous source and target networks and tasks has received a lot of attention in recent times as large amounts of quality labeled data can be difficult to obtain in many applications. Existing approaches typically constrain the target deep neural network (DNN) feature representations to be close to the source DNNs feature representations, which can be limiting. We, in this paper, propose a novel adversarial multi-armed bandit approach that automatically learns to route source representations to appropriate target representations following which they are combined in meaningful ways to produce accurate target models. We see upwards of 5\% accuracy improvements compared with the state-of-the-art knowledge transfer methods on four benchmark (target) image datasets CUB200, Stanford Dogs, MIT67, and Stanford40 where the source dataset is ImageNet. We qualitatively analyze the goodness of our transfer scheme by showing individual examples of the important features focused on by our target network at different layers compared with the (closest) competitors. We also observe that our improvement over other methods is higher for smaller target datasets making it an effective tool for small data applications that may benefit from transfer learning.

A radiology report comprises several sections, including the Findings and Impression of the diagnosis. Automatically generating the Impression from the Findings is crucial for reducing radiologists' workload and improving diagnostic accuracy. Pretrained models that excel in common abstractive summarization problems encounter challenges when applied to specialized medical domains largely due to the complex terminology and the necessity for accurate clinical context. Such tasks in medical domains demand extracting core information, avoiding context shifts, and maintaining proper flow. Misuse of medical terms can lead to drastic clinical errors. To address these issues, we introduce a sequential transfer learning that ensures key content extraction and coherent summarization. Sequential transfer learning often faces challenges like initial parameter decay and knowledge loss, which we resolve with the Fisher matrix regularization. Using MIMIC-CXR and Open-I datasets, our model, CSTRL - Context-driven Sequential TRansfer Learning - achieved state-of-the-art performance, showing 56.2% improvement in BLEU-1, 40.5% in BLEU-2, 84.3% in BLEU-3, 28.9% in ROUGE-1, 41.0% in ROUGE-2 and 26.5% in ROGUE-3 score over benchmark studies. We also analyze factual consistency scores while preserving the medical context. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/fahmidahossain/Report_Summarization.

E-commerce risk management requires aggregating diverse, deeply embedded web data through multi-step, stateful interactions, which traditional scraping methods and most existing Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents cannot handle. These agents are typically limited to single-step tasks and lack the ability to manage dynamic, interactive content critical for effective risk assessment. To address this challenge, we introduce RISK, a novel framework designed to build and deploy GUI agents for this domain. RISK integrates three components: (1) RISK-Data, a dataset of 8,492 single-step and 2,386 multi-step interaction trajectories, collected through a high-fidelity browser framework and a meticulous data curation process; (2) RISK-Bench, a benchmark with 802 single-step and 320 multi-step trajectories across three difficulty levels for standardized evaluation; and (3) RISK-R1, a R1-style reinforcement fine-tuning framework considering four aspects: (i) Output Format Constraint, (ii) Single-step and (iii) Multi-step Level Reward, and (iv) Task Level Reweight. Experiments show that RISK-R1 achieves a 6.8% improvement in offline single-step and an 8.8% improvement in offline multi-step, using only 7.2% of the parameters of the SOTA baseline. Moreover, it attains a top task success rate of 70.5% in online evaluation. RISK provides a scalable, domain-specific solution for automating complex web interactions in e-commerce risk management. The code is available at https://github.com/RenqiChen/RISK-GUI.

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Time series forecasting is essential in various domains. Compared to relying solely on endogenous variables (i.e., target variables), considering exogenous variables (i.e., covariates) provides additional predictive information and often leads to more accurate predictions. However, existing methods for time series forecasting with exogenous variables (TSF-X) have the following shortcomings: 1) they do not leverage future exogenous variables, 2) they fail to fully account for the correlation between endogenous and exogenous variables. In this study, to better leverage exogenous variables, especially future exogenous variables, we propose DAG, which utilizes Dual correlAtion network along both the temporal and channel dimensions for time series forecasting with exoGenous variables. Specifically, we propose two core components: the Temporal Correlation Module and the Channel Correlation Module. Both modules consist of a correlation discovery submodule and a correlation injection submodule. The former is designed to capture the correlation effects of historical exogenous variables on future exogenous variables and on historical endogenous variables, respectively. The latter injects the discovered correlation relationships into the processes of forecasting future endogenous variables based on historical endogenous variables and future exogenous variables.

In this work, we introduce OmniGen, a new diffusion model for unified image generation. Unlike popular diffusion models (e.g., Stable Diffusion), OmniGen no longer requires additional modules such as ControlNet or IP-Adapter to process diverse control conditions. OmniGenis characterized by the following features: 1) Unification: OmniGen not only demonstrates text-to-image generation capabilities but also inherently supports other downstream tasks, such as image editing, subject-driven generation, and visual-conditional generation. Additionally, OmniGen can handle classical computer vision tasks by transforming them into image generation tasks, such as edge detection and human pose recognition. 2) Simplicity: The architecture of OmniGen is highly simplified, eliminating the need for additional text encoders. Moreover, it is more user-friendly compared to existing diffusion models, enabling complex tasks to be accomplished through instructions without the need for extra preprocessing steps (e.g., human pose estimation), thereby significantly simplifying the workflow of image generation. 3) Knowledge Transfer: Through learning in a unified format, OmniGen effectively transfers knowledge across different tasks, manages unseen tasks and domains, and exhibits novel capabilities. We also explore the model's reasoning capabilities and potential applications of chain-of-thought mechanism. This work represents the first attempt at a general-purpose image generation model, and there remain several unresolved issues. We will open-source the related resources at https://github.com/VectorSpaceLab/OmniGen to foster advancements in this field.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

Understanding how language model capabilities transfer from pretraining to supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is fundamental to efficient model development and data curation. In this work, we investigate four core questions: RQ1. To what extent do accuracy and confidence rankings established during pretraining persist after SFT? RQ2. Which benchmarks serve as robust cross-stage predictors and which are unreliable? RQ3. How do transfer dynamics shift with model scale? RQ4. How well does model confidence align with accuracy, as a measure of calibration quality? Does this alignment pattern transfer across training stages? We address these questions through a suite of correlation protocols applied to accuracy and confidence metrics across diverse data mixtures and model scales. Our experiments reveal that transfer reliability varies dramatically across capability categories, benchmarks, and scales -- with accuracy and confidence exhibiting distinct, sometimes opposing, scaling dynamics. These findings shed light on the complex interplay between pretraining decisions and downstream outcomes, providing actionable guidance for benchmark selection, data curation, and efficient model development.

Score-based diffusion models are a class of generative models whose dynamics is described by stochastic differential equations that map noise into data. While recent works have started to lay down a theoretical foundation for these models, an analytical understanding of the role of the diffusion time T is still lacking. Current best practice advocates for a large T to ensure that the forward dynamics brings the diffusion sufficiently close to a known and simple noise distribution; however, a smaller value of T should be preferred for a better approximation of the score-matching objective and higher computational efficiency. Starting from a variational interpretation of diffusion models, in this work we quantify this trade-off, and suggest a new method to improve quality and efficiency of both training and sampling, by adopting smaller diffusion times. Indeed, we show how an auxiliary model can be used to bridge the gap between the ideal and the simulated forward dynamics, followed by a standard reverse diffusion process. Empirical results support our analysis; for image data, our method is competitive w.r.t. the state-of-the-art, according to standard sample quality metrics and log-likelihood.

Adversarial examples mislead deep neural networks with imperceptible perturbations and have brought significant threats to deep learning. An important aspect is their transferability, which refers to their ability to deceive other models, thus enabling attacks in the black-box setting. Though various methods have been proposed to boost transferability, the performance still falls short compared with white-box attacks. In this work, we observe that existing input transformation based attacks, one of the mainstream transfer-based attacks, result in different attention heatmaps on various models, which might limit the transferability. We also find that breaking the intrinsic relation of the image can disrupt the attention heatmap of the original image. Based on this finding, we propose a novel input transformation based attack called block shuffle and rotation (BSR). Specifically, BSR splits the input image into several blocks, then randomly shuffles and rotates these blocks to construct a set of new images for gradient calculation. Empirical evaluations on the ImageNet dataset demonstrate that BSR could achieve significantly better transferability than the existing input transformation based methods under single-model and ensemble-model settings. Combining BSR with the current input transformation method can further improve the transferability, which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-AI-Group/BSR

OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own order book, and simulated trading nets -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted trade under stated fee and slippage assumptions. We release the synchronized corpus and infrastructure that attempt produced and, to our knowledge, the first public millisecond-level Polymarket BTC / Binance BTC-USDT paired corpus with explicit pairing metadata. The frozen archive (tag v0.5.2) contains 727,098,247 deduplicated rows across 202 archival snapshots, with event data on 54 observed Polymarket days (57 Binance days) between 2026-02-12 and 2026-05-15, including 2,936,031 explicit lead-lag pairs, alongside a reproducible Rust pipeline for collection, millisecond pairing, Parquet export, and walk-forward calibration. Initial analyses establish Polymarket stylized facts (one-tick top-of-book spreads) and characterize cross-venue timing: an apparent 16 ms median lag on venue source clocks, with relative clock drift bounded to at most 6 ms over the archive but a remaining single-vantage constant-offset ambiguity of approximately plus or minus 99 ms. A synchronization-free event study, measured only on the collector clock, independently shows that Polymarket quotes respond to large Binance moves after a median 347 ms. We position this work as a data-and-methods release whose central empirical result is a null out-of-sample forecasting result.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

With the advancement of vision transformers (ViTs) and self-supervised learning (SSL) techniques, pre-trained large ViTs have become the new foundation models for computer vision applications. However, studies have shown that, like convolutional neural networks (CNNs), ViTs are also susceptible to adversarial attacks, where subtle perturbations in the input can fool the model into making false predictions. This paper studies the transferability of such an adversarial vulnerability from a pre-trained ViT model to downstream tasks. We focus on sample-wise transfer attacks and propose a novel attack method termed Downstream Transfer Attack (DTA). For a given test image, DTA leverages a pre-trained ViT model to craft the adversarial example and then applies the adversarial example to attack a fine-tuned version of the model on a downstream dataset. During the attack, DTA identifies and exploits the most vulnerable layers of the pre-trained model guided by a cosine similarity loss to craft highly transferable attacks. Through extensive experiments with pre-trained ViTs by 3 distinct pre-training methods, 3 fine-tuning schemes, and across 10 diverse downstream datasets, we show that DTA achieves an average attack success rate (ASR) exceeding 90\%, surpassing existing methods by a huge margin. When used with adversarial training, the adversarial examples generated by our DTA can significantly improve the model's robustness to different downstream transfer attacks.

Computer vision has long relied on ImageNet and other large datasets of images sampled from the Internet for pretraining models. However, these datasets have ethical and technical shortcomings, such as containing personal information taken without consent, unclear license usage, biases, and, in some cases, even problematic image content. On the other hand, state-of-the-art pretraining is nowadays obtained with unsupervised methods, meaning that labelled datasets such as ImageNet may not be necessary, or perhaps not even optimal, for model pretraining. We thus propose an unlabelled dataset PASS: Pictures without humAns for Self-Supervision. PASS only contains images with CC-BY license and complete attribution metadata, addressing the copyright issue. Most importantly, it contains no images of people at all, and also avoids other types of images that are problematic for data protection or ethics. We show that PASS can be used for pretraining with methods such as MoCo-v2, SwAV and DINO. In the transfer learning setting, it yields similar downstream performances to ImageNet pretraining even on tasks that involve humans, such as human pose estimation. PASS does not make existing datasets obsolete, as for instance it is insufficient for benchmarking. However, it shows that model pretraining is often possible while using safer data, and it also provides the basis for a more robust evaluation of pretraining methods.

Frontier language models excel at complex tasks yet may prioritize protection over larger physical consequences in simple, urgent decisions. GPT-5.6 Sol, for example, moves a girl playing in shallow water before retrieving a submerged camera. We call this Protection Mode and study it with ProtectionBench: 285 prompts, 34 physical families, and nine models. At lowest effort, at least one of four responses prioritizes the subject on 34.74% of Sol prompts and over 83% of MiniMax M3 and Qwen3.5-27B prompts; none of four independent human raters does so. Controls show that choices usually track physical risk. We elicit both risks before requesting an action. Some models assess risk incorrectly; others state the correct ordering but still choose the subject. Qwen3.5-27B with thinking shows 100% correct risk ordering but 57.81% subject choice among eligible conversations on eight selected scenes. Attention audits find no stable reduction in attention to relevant facts; removing the stated risk direction reduces object-first choice in dots3-note-prev but not detectably in Qwen3.5-27B. Adding a general "people or animals before property" rule increases subject choice by 19-38 percentage points, whereas factual reminders favor the object by 0.7-5.2 points. Removing naturally generated versions of that rule lowers subject choice by 10-15 points. We also examine whether post-training introduces this pattern. Base models already show Protection Mode; post-training changes justifications more than choices.

Recent advances in text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models have enabled increasingly realistic synthesis of vehicle damage, raising concerns about their reliability in automated insurance workflows. The ability to generate crash-like imagery challenges the boundary between authentic and synthetic data, introducing new risks of misuse in fraud or claim manipulation. To address these issues, we propose HERS (Hidden-Pattern Expert Learning for Risk-Specific Damage Adaptation), a framework designed to improve fidelity, controllability, and domain alignment of diffusion-generated damage images. HERS fine-tunes a base diffusion model via domain-specific expert adaptation without requiring manual annotation. Using self-supervised image-text pairs automatically generated by a large language model and T2I pipeline, HERS models each damage category, such as dents, scratches, broken lights, or cracked paint, as a separate expert. These experts are later integrated into a unified multi-damage model that balances specialization with generalization. We evaluate HERS across four diffusion backbones and observe consistent improvements: plus 5.5 percent in text faithfulness and plus 2.3 percent in human preference ratings compared to baselines. Beyond image fidelity, we discuss implications for fraud detection, auditability, and safe deployment of generative models in high-stakes domains. Our findings highlight both the opportunities and risks of domain-specific diffusion, underscoring the importance of trustworthy generation in safety-critical applications such as auto insurance.