Daily Papers

Meaningful scores for forecast verification are essential for developing reliable forecasts, and there has been much effort to develop scores that align well with human perceptions of forecast quality. Whilst many of these scores have intuitive interpretations, relatively little is known about how these scores rank different forecasts, and how scores reflect forecast error. We theoretically explore the behaviour of two scores that fall within the `neighbourhood' paradigm of spatial verification; the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Brier Divergence Skill Score (BDnSS). We investigate how each score ranks forecasts with two types of error; errors in the mean frequency (corresponding to intensity or shape errors) and errors in the standard deviation (corresponding to errors in spatial structure, such as blurring or excess noise). We find that under many situations the FSS assigns higher scores to forecasts that over-predict mean frequency, thus theoretically confirming the need to use the FSS with percentile thresholds. Both scores generally assign higher scores to forecasts with lower neighbourhood standard deviation, a reflection of the `double penalty' problem; however, we observe that size of this effect is larger for the BDnSS than the FSS, showing that the FSS under some situations is less susceptible to the double penalty problem than the BDnSS.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on skills, structured documents that specify when to act, which procedure to follow, and which tools are allowed. Existing evaluations mostly judge the quality of a skill or its contribution to task success, leaving unexamined whether an agent can recognize a relevant skill and apply it on its own. We introduce Skill-Use, a benchmark that evaluates skill use under progressive disclosure, where an agent sees only a skill's name and short description and must retrieve the full procedure before following it. Skill-Use separates three facets of skill use. Trigger measures whether the agent invokes the relevant skill, Compliance measures how faithfully it follows the prescribed procedure, and Boundary measures whether it avoids forbidden operations. A Skill-Use (SU) score combines the three and credits execution only after the skill is triggered. Skill-Use pairs 79 real skills with 177 executable tasks across nine domains, each grounded in real files, run in an isolated Docker sandbox, and scored by a trajectory-based rubric. Evaluating eight LLMs under two agent harnesses, we find that reliable skill use remains out of reach, as the strongest configuration reaches an SU of only 0.613. Triggering and procedural compliance fail as independent bottlenecks, and both scores and model rankings shift with the harness, so skill use behaves as a capability conditioned on the harness rather than a fixed property of the model.

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

Managing modern computing infrastructure has become a steadily harder problem due to the ever-increasing complexity. Recent advances in AI agents create a timely opportunity to automate infrastructure management tasks, but it remains unclear how well such agents can handle real-world infrastructure complexity. We present InfraBench, a benchmark suite for evaluating AI agents on realistic infrastructure tasks across the full system stack and full operational lifecycle with fine-grained risk assessment. Experiments with 15 agent-model configurations show that even the strongest agent cannot secure a full score across all tasks. Mean effective scores range from roughly 40% to 88% (with per-configuration standard errors of 6-12 points), repeating every task three times reveals that top configurations still pass only a fraction of their attempts, and per-check scoring exposes a general failure pattern: agents may routinely satisfy short-term objectives while leaving non-durable changes, broken distributed invariants, unsafe side effects, and uncleaned state behind. INFRABENCH, including its live leaderboard, tasks, and evaluation harness, is publicly available at infraben.ch.

Clinical research over electronic health records depends on derived variables whose definitions sit outside the schema, in item codes, time windows, missingness rules, and output-grain choices that change cohorts and downstream conclusions. We introduce M4Bench, 28 clinical derivation tasks across 15 task families on MIMIC-IV and eICU, to test whether AI coding agents can reproduce such derivations and how clinician-reviewed agent skills change their results. Its controls decompose the value of skills into specification completeness, delivery format, and schema familiarity. In a Docker-isolated Codex campaign (GPT 5.4 Mini and GPT 5.5), skills raise reward by 0.136 over the no-skill baseline, with 26 of 28 tasks improving. Specification completeness accounts for most of this gain: on an eight-task control subset, an operational spec alone raises reward by 0.162, and skills add only 0.024 on top, indistinguishable from zero. On a ten-task subset, decoy skills score like no skill and raw reference SQL nearly matches targeted skills, arguing against generic context or the skill format as the explanation. Schema obfuscation and restructuring preserve 86% and 70% of the skill gain (GPT 5.4 Mini, 26 MIMIC-IV tasks), a descriptive robustness check rather than a bound on memorization. A descriptive Claude Code replication on all 28 tasks (Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6, 560 runs) is directionally consistent (+0.120, 21 of 28 tasks improving). These gains are partial agreement with the reference, not completed tasks: only 25 of 280 with-skill and 13 of 280 no-skill Codex runs pass every strict check, and skills barely change which rows agents return (key F1 +0.003). Skills are released as a versioned, clinician-reviewable markdown delivery format, with a family-level reference-validity audit. M4Bench releases tasks, skills, evaluation code, and sanitized per-run evidence as an open-source benchmark.

Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed AI World Cup benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points (r=0.986), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points (r=0.055), group-standing points (r=-0.103), or their combined pre-knockout score (r=-0.054). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy (r=-0.060) or total score (r=-0.067). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.

Long-horizon reasoning in recent LLMs demands that the model switch between distinct skills inside a reasoning chain, such as first doing a math derivation, then using the result to plan a schedule. We call such problems cross-skill long-horizon tasks: multi-step tasks whose steps require different reasoning skills and depend on earlier outputs. Existing benchmarks often evaluate individual skills, lacking a principled way to measure how well a model switches between skills. We address this gap from both the evaluation and training sides. We introduce Skill Entropy, a measure of the difficulty of switching from one skill to another. We then propose Skill^2-Bench, a benchmark of cross-skill long-horizon tasks built over 558 skills across 9 verifiable and open-ended domains. Each task is assigned a task-level skill-entropy score and grouped into three difficulty levels. Evaluating 8 frontier and 4 open-source models on Skill^2-Bench reveals a skill-switching gap: accuracy decreases on higher-entropy tasks. We then turn skill entropy from a benchmark scale into a training signal. We propose Skill-Entropy RL, an RL framework where the model predicts not only the answer at each step but also the skill used to produce it. The reward combines step-level correctness with a skill-entropy reward that measures the alignment between the model-predicted skill sequence and the gold skill sequence. On Qwen3-4B-Instruct and Qwen3-1.7B, Skill-Entropy RL improves the Skill^2-Bench score from 34.4% to 68.4% and from 14.6% to 40.1%, respectively, outperforming competitive baselines. The same pipeline can be applied to off-the-shelf training data such as OpenR1-Math, indicating that skill entropy is a reusable training signal. Code available at: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/Skill-Entropy-RL

Recent LLM agents benefit from skills for solving complex tasks. Skills encapsulate modular packages of procedural knowledge and instructions for performing specialized tasks, such as setting up a sandboxed environment, running a test suite, or refactoring a function across multiple files. As skill libraries grow and become reusable across tasks and domains, selecting an appropriate skill composition has emerged as a central bottleneck. Existing approaches fall into two categories. One exposes the agent's reasoning to the entire skill collection; the other performs skill retrieval via embeddings or LLM-based rerankers. Both provide useful insights; however, they miss the structural nature of skill composition, which is a joint decision over which skills, how many, and in what order -- three dimensions that cannot be decoupled. We formalize this as structured skill composition: given a task and a skill library, predict an executable skill plan that jointly specifies the activated subset, count, and execution order. We propose SkillComposer, which instantiates structured skill composition as task-conditioned skill sequence prediction. SkillComposer uses a constrained autoregressive decoder over skill identifiers, so subset, count, and order emerge jointly from a single decoding pass, and dependencies between successive skills are captured naturally. We build a training set of task-composition pairs from a real, human-curated skill library. We then evaluate SkillComposer along two axes: composition quality on a held-out test set, and downstream task success on SkillsBench across two production-grade coding agents. On GPT-5.2-Codex, Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, SkillComposer raises the pass rate by +23.1, +18.2pp over the no-skill baseline, surpassing top-3 retrieval and matching the gold-skill retrieval upper bound at lower prompt-token cost.

Expert-written natural language skills can improve tool-using agents, yet agent-authored skills perform 8-11 points worse than using no skill. This gap suggests that following procedural guidance and improving it from execution evidence are distinct capabilities. Inference time loops can repair skills but do not improve the model that writes the next one. We study how to organize execution experience from intermediate skills into training states for an optimizer. We introduce WER (Write, Execute, and Refine), a multi-phase framework that trains a Skill Optimizer outside a frozen executor. The optimizer proposes skills, a frozen agent executes each repeatedly, and a programmatic verifier scores the outcomes. The scores provide relative credit and select mixed-outcome records. Matched successful and failed trajectories from these records form the next phase's refinement states, so the optimizer learns from the consequences of its earlier outputs. On BFCL v4 multi-turn and tau2-bench, WER improves average Pass@1 over the no-skill baseline by 7.80 and 3.85 points, respectively. Under an identical refinement workflow, it outperforms the same backbone without optimizer training by 9.35 and 10.29 points. The trained 4B optimizer reaches 76.63 percent on BFCL v4, outperforming all evaluated off-the-shelf general-purpose models used as skill optimizers on average.

Enterprise agent programs are moving from prototypes into production, where reusable skills, tools, and workflow packages must be reviewed with evidence rather than prose. Current gates often scan these artifacts for structure, style, and security, but they do not answer the deployment question: does the capability package help a live agent complete enterprise tasks under the same model, sandbox, and grading policy? We present ACES (Agentic Continuous Evaluation of Skills), a repository-native framework for evaluating skills and product capability packages as executable agent artifacts. ACES runs paired live trials with and without a target skill, normalizes trajectories into the Agent Trajectory Interchange Format (ATIF), grades six default runtime metrics, and reports Skill Lift: the target skill's added value for a fixed task, harness, workspace, and scorer. The same protocol supports product-owned task suites that compare baseline, skill, bundle, team-skill, and plugin targets. On 145 real skills from internal enterprise repositories and public catalogs, scan-only gates surface useful authoring issues but measure complementary facets (structural versus LLM-judge Spearman ρ= 0.14). Across 947 scored paired cases from 58 of 64 production skills and four primary harnesses, mean composite Skill Lift is 0.2134 (95\% paired-case CI [0.1967, 0.2301]); mean outcome-only lift, the average of accuracy and goal accuracy, is 0.1799. Composite lift is positive in 72.8\% of paired cases. The largest process-metric gains appear in skill execution, behavior check, and skill efficiency---signals about discovery, routing, workflow following, and tool use that document scans cannot observe. An open-source implementation of the methodology is available in NVIDIA SkillEvaluator.

AI agents can externalize what they learn from past tasks into reusable skills, such as procedures, checklists, code, or other executable artifacts, that can be retrieved and reused when solving new tasks. Self-evolving skill methods keep rewriting these skills after each round of practice on training tasks, and the skill is then used on new tasks of the same kind. We ask a question: does the improvement a skill shows on its training tasks carry over to new test tasks? We test five self-evolving methods and a one-shot skill on six benchmarks, with the same model, the same agent, and the same train/test split for every method. Of the 21 skills that improve on their training tasks, 5 keep all of that improvement on the test tasks, 13 keep part of it, and 3 keep none of it. No existing method is best everywhere. When we read the skills, the ones that carry over badly often fix details that should depend on the task, such as column names and output files, or turn a fix for one failure into a rule for every task. An LLM judge that reads the skill content can often see this: it ranks finished skills the same way the test results do in 86\% of pairs. But it predicts the effect of a single edit poorly, so edits still have to be tested by running them. Based on these findings, we describe Generalizable Skill Optimization (GSO), which keeps only a guide for writing skills and writes a new skill for each task; it scores highest on all six benchmarks.

Chemistry evaluation has moved past multiple-choice probes toward open-ended expert problems, yet the benchmarks that define the current frontier still score answer endpoints alone. Such scoring conflates memorized facts with stepwise derivation, treats visual and textual inputs as interchangeable, and confounds long-horizon planning with stepwise execution. These blind spots prevent any diagnosis of where the reasoning chain breaks in a model. We present ChemArgus, a competition-level chemistry benchmark drawn from chemistry competition material, textbooks, and research papers, whose scoring replaces the answer endpoint with three measurement properties. Fine-grained scoring grades every subquestion point by point with partial credit, so a score lands at the level of the step rather than the outcome. Multimodal capability is priced on every problem containing a real image, paired with a controlled text description, so visual understanding is measured against text on identical tasks. Diagnostic attribution reads paired metrics that share one scoring unit and differ only in context construction, so a gap between two scores isolates a single cause, namely integration, propagation, or local reasoning. GPT-5.6-Sol scores 23.2% on unassisted whole-problem solving against 28.8% and 30.4% under the two sequential metrics, a gap measuring the integration burden. Through rubric partial credit and these cause-isolating score gaps, ChemArgus shows not only whether a model answers chemistry correctly but where its reasoning chain fails, so that every score it reports doubles as a diagnosis, a readout of the chain rather than a verdict, aiming to guide language models step by step on their path toward chemistry expertise, one corrected step at a time, each step priced by the rubric, point by point.

Technical Element Score (TES) and Program Component Score (PCS) evaluations in figure skating demand precise assessment of athletic actions and artistic interpretation, respectively. Existing methods face three major challenges. Firstly, video and audio cues are regarded as common features for both TES and PCS predictions in previous works without considering the prior evaluation criterion of figure skating. Secondly, action elements in competitions are separated in time, TES should be derived from each element's score, but existing methods try to give an overall TES prediction without evaluating each action element. Thirdly, lengthy competition videos make it difficult and inefficient to handle long-range contexts. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stream Mamba pyramid network that aligns with actual judging criteria to predict TES and PCS by separating visual-feature based TES evaluation stream from audio-visual-feature based PCS evaluation stream. In the PCS evaluation stream, we introduce a multi-level fusion mechanism to guarantee that video-based features remain unaffected when assessing TES, and enhance PCS estimation by fusing visual and auditory cues across each contextual level of the pyramid. In the TES evaluation stream, the multi-scale Mamba pyramid and TES head we proposed effectively address the challenges of localizing and evaluating action elements with various temporal scales and give score predictions. With Mamba's superior ability to capture long-range dependencies and its linear computational complexity, our method is ideal for handling lengthy figure skating videos. Comprehensive experimentation demonstrates that our framework attains state-of-the-art performance on the FineFS benchmark. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ycwfs/Figure-Skating-Action-Quality-Assessment.

We introduce SWE-Game, a benchmark of 247 tasks grounded in 41 executable reference Godot games spanning 13 gameplay categories in 2D and 3D. Five task types cover development from a brief, implementation from a game design document, skeleton completion, repair of 83 injected-fault cases, and Godot-to-Unity porting. Reference materials specify the intended gameplay, while a shared instrumentation interface lets evaluator-owned drivers and probes execute actions and observe independently implemented games. Evaluation combines engine-state checks, certified reference-input replay, and agent-authored feature demonstrations to assess mechanic correctness, demonstrated playability, and behavioral restoration and preservation after repairs. Game-specific vision-language rubrics separately assess presentation. Across six models, Opus5 achieves the highest overall score in all five task types. Best overall scores remain below 60 out of 100 across the three construction tasks, with Brief-to-Game reaching 50.38. Analysis of reviewed submissions identifies requirement omissions and gameplay logic errors as predominant implementation problems. On human-labeled behaviors from 100 agent-built games, executable checks achieve 92.59% balanced accuracy, compared with 78.41% for a video-based VLM judge. Rubric-based visual scores reach a Spearman correlation of 0.829 with human ratings of 200 gameplay clips. Together, these results characterize current agent capabilities across game-development activities and support combining runtime evidence with visual assessment.

Test-time compute has emerged as a powerful paradigm for improving the performance of large language models (LLMs), where generating multiple outputs or refining individual chains can significantly boost answer accuracy. However, existing methods like Best-of-N, majority voting, and self-reflection typically apply reasoning in a uniform way across inputs, overlooking the fact that different problems may require different levels of reasoning depth. In this work, we propose Fractional Reasoning, a training-free and model-agnostic framework that enables continuous control over reasoning intensity at inference time, going beyond the limitations of fixed instructional prompts. Our method operates by extracting the latent steering vector associated with deeper reasoning and reapplying it with a tunable scaling factor, allowing the model to tailor its reasoning process to the complexity of each input. This supports two key modes of test-time scaling: (1) improving output quality in breadth-based strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, majority voting), and (2) enhancing the correctness of individual reasoning chains in depth-based strategies (e.g., self-reflection). Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, and GPQA demonstrate that Fractional Reasoning consistently improves performance across diverse reasoning tasks and models.

Analyzing memes on the internet has emerged as a crucial endeavor due to the impact this multi-modal form of content wields in shaping online discourse. Memes have become a powerful tool for expressing emotions and sentiments, possibly even spreading hate and misinformation, through humor and sarcasm. In this paper, we present the overview of the Memotion 3 shared task, as part of the DeFactify 2 workshop at AAAI-23. The task released an annotated dataset of Hindi-English code-mixed memes based on their Sentiment (Task A), Emotion (Task B), and Emotion intensity (Task C). Each of these is defined as an individual task and the participants are ranked separately for each task. Over 50 teams registered for the shared task and 5 made final submissions to the test set of the Memotion 3 dataset. CLIP, BERT modifications, ViT etc. were the most popular models among the participants along with approaches such as Student-Teacher model, Fusion, and Ensembling. The best final F1 score for Task A is 34.41, Task B is 79.77 and Task C is 59.82.