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Jul 28

Bayesian aggregation of average data: An application in drug development

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

  • 6 authors
·
May 12, 2020

Bridging Brains and Machines: A Unified Frontier in Neuroscience, Artificial Intelligence, and Neuromorphic Systems

This position and survey paper identifies the emerging convergence of neuroscience, artificial general intelligence (AGI), and neuromorphic computing toward a unified research paradigm. Using a framework grounded in brain physiology, we highlight how synaptic plasticity, sparse spike-based communication, and multimodal association provide design principles for next-generation AGI systems that potentially combine both human and machine intelligences. The review traces this evolution from early connectionist models to state-of-the-art large language models, demonstrating how key innovations like transformer attention, foundation-model pre-training, and multi-agent architectures mirror neurobiological processes like cortical mechanisms, working memory, and episodic consolidation. We then discuss emerging physical substrates capable of breaking the von Neumann bottleneck to achieve brain-scale efficiency in silicon: memristive crossbars, in-memory compute arrays, and emerging quantum and photonic devices. There are four critical challenges at this intersection: 1) integrating spiking dynamics with foundation models, 2) maintaining lifelong plasticity without catastrophic forgetting, 3) unifying language with sensorimotor learning in embodied agents, and 4) enforcing ethical safeguards in advanced neuromorphic autonomous systems. This combined perspective across neuroscience, computation, and hardware offers an integrative agenda for in each of these fields.

  • 45 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025