Daily Papers

The origin of supermassive black holes, especially those already present at high redshift, remains an open problem. We propose that their seeds are primordial black holes formed from rare overdense regions of conventional thermal DM. A spectator scalar with two degenerate vacua gives the DM different masses, and hence different freeze-out abundances, in the two vacua. Inflationary fluctuations populate the vacuum containing the heavier relic only in exponentially rare patches. As the Universe cools, the density contrast of these patches grows sufficiently large for the patches to collapse into PBHs after horizon re-entry. We derive the resulting PBH mass function and show that it is sharply concentrated near a lower cutoff while reproducing the mass scale and abundance required for SMBH seeds. Since the overdensities originate from a rare, non-Gaussian population rather than from an enhancement of nearly Gaussian primordial curvature perturbations, the usual CMB spectral-distortion constraint does not directly apply. The construction also correlates the seed population with the dark-sector spectrum and the inflation scale, providing complementary avenues for testing the scenario.

Inflation typically predicts a quasi scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational waves. In models of slow-roll inflation, the amplitude of such a background is too small to allow direct detection without a dedicated space-based experiment such as the proposed BBO or DECIGO. In this paper we note that particle production during inflation can generate a feature in the spectrum of primordial gravitational waves. We discuss the possibility that such a feature might be detected by ground-based laser interferometers such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, which will become operational in the next few years. We also discuss the prospects of detection by a space interferometer like LISA. We first study gravitational waves induced by nonperturbative, explosive particle production during inflation: while explosive production of scalar quanta does not generate a significant bump in the primordial tensor spectrum, production of vectors can. We also show that chiral gravitational waves produced by electromagnetic fields amplified by an axion-like inflaton could be detectable by Advanced LIGO.

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the WMAP mission. We provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate CMB anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained LCDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that Big Bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (3.84+/-0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is 13.772+/-0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H0 = 69.32+/-0.80 km/s/Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity reported earlier by WMAP now has high statistical significance (n_s = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean, Omega_k = -0.0027 (+0.0039/-0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter LCDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further. With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness-of-fit, the inflationary flat LCDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

As part of a PhD thesis entitled `Scalar perturbations in warm inflation and during reheating' we present a software for computing warm inflation observables. In particular, our Mathematica implementation computes the power spectrum, spectral tilt, and tensor-to-scalar ratio for a given momentum scale. Compared with other implementations, we start in a Bunch-Davies state deep inside the horizon, ideally at a time when thermal noise is exponentially suppressed. We integrate gauge-invariant equations for three curvature perturbations across horizon exit. We continue deep enough outside of horizon so that all curvature perturbations agree. Results are illustrated for Standard Model embedded warm inflation, and we also provide notebooks for several other popular potentials and friction coefficients. The theoretical foundations for the code can be found in the main part of the thesis or in earlier papers [1,2]. Specifically, part II derives gauge-invariant, model-agnostic evolution equations, as well as the noise autocorrelator interpolating between quantum and classical domains. Part III presents the general ideas behind the numerical implementation, while part IV presents selected results. The code is described, line-by-line, in Appendix A. The published PhD thesis is available at https://doi.org/10.48620/101166 while the notebooks can be downloaded from https://github.com/alicarogeljblackhole/Warm-Inflation.

We update predictions for observables in the "delicate" D3/anti-D3 inflationary model on the conifold. We use a full CMB likelihood calculation to assess goodness-of-fit, which is necessary because in this model the zeta power spectrum often cannot be modelled as a power-law over observable scales. For the first time we are able to provide accurate forecasts for the amplitude of three-point correlations. In a significant portion of its parameter space the model follows Maldacena's single-field prediction fNL ~ -(5/12)(ns-1) if nt << 1. Therefore |fNL| is usually small when the power spectrum satisfies observational constraints. In a small number of cases the bispectrum is instead dominated by effects from rapid switching between angular minima. The resulting amplitudes are larger, but mostly with unacceptable spectral behaviour. In the most extreme case we obtain |fNLeq| ~ 75 at kt/3 = 0.002/Mpc. It has been suggested that the quasi-single field inflation ("QSFI") mechanism could produce significant 3-point correlations in this model. We do observe rare shifts in amplitude between equilateral and squeezed configurations that could possibly be associated with QSFI effects, but more investigation is needed to establish the full bispectrum shape. There is evidence of "shape" running between equilateral and squeezed configurations that may be inherited from the scale dependence of the spectrum. We explore the dependence of observables on discrete choices such as the truncation point of the potential. Our analysis illustrates the advantages of a standard format for information exchange within the inflationary model-building and testing community.

We show that a scale-invariant U(1) gauge theory can naturally realize large curvature perturbations around the end of thermal inflation, seeding the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs). The allowed nonminimal gravitational interaction ξ of the Higgs field induces a Hubble-scale negative mass-squared term for positive ξsim O(1), and triggers a second order phase transition that ends thermal inflation while keeping the extra e-folds small. This sharp contrast to the minimally coupled case allows the gauge coupling to be much smaller than unity. It turns out that field fluctuations are dominated by thermal fluctuations around the onset of the phase transition, and sufficiently amplified to produce an appreciable amount of PBHs with a wide range of possible masses. The associated scalar-induced gravitational waves (GWs) are accompanied by cosmic-string induced GWs coming from the breaking of the U(1) symmetry. As a result, the generated PBH population can have a correlated GW signature relevant to pulsar timing arrays, space-based interferometers, or ground-based detectors.

Ideas from causal set theory lead to a fluctuating, time dependent cosmological-constant of the right order of magnitude to match currently quoted "dark energy" values. Although such a term was predicted some time ago, a more detailed analysis of the resulting class of phenomenological models was begun only recently (based on numerical simulation of the cosmological equations with such a fluctuating term). In this paper we continue the investigation by studying the sensitivity of the scheme to some of the ad hoc choices made in setting it up.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

We investigate the formation of large peaks in the inflationary curvature power spectrum from double-well potentials. In such scenarios, the initial CMB spectrum is created at large field values. Subsequently, the inflaton will cross one of the minima and will decelerate rapidly as it reaches the local maximum at the origin, either falling back or crossing it. During this final phase, a significant peak in the curvature power spectrum can be generated. Our analysis reveals that this class of models produces more pronounced peaks than the more commonly studied quasi-inflection point scenarios with less tuning for the model parameters. Finally, we construct an explicit theoretically motivated inflationary scenario that is consistent with the latest CMB observations and capable of generating sufficiently large curvature perturbations for primordial black holes.

We study chromo-natural inflation in the axiverse. More precisely, we investigate natural inflation with two axions coupled with a SU(2) gauge field. Assuming a hierarchy between the coupling constants, we find that for certain initial conditions, conventional natural inflation commences and continues for tens of e-foldings, and subsequently chromo-natural inflation takes over from natural inflation. For these solutions, we expect that the predictions are in agreement with observations on CMB scales. Moreover, since chromo-natural inflation occurs in the latter part of the inflationary stage, chiral primordial gravitational waves are produced in the interesting frequency range higher than 10^{-10}Hz, which might be detectable by future gravitational wave observations.

Recently, Cotler, Ivo, and Maldacena have shown that under scale invariance, eternal inflation is interpreted as a failure of the reheating surface volume renormalization due to an ill-defined scaling dimension. Meanwhile, observations suggest that scale invariance is slightly broken, which is parametrized by deviation of the spectral index from unity, varepsilon=n_s-1. Motivated by this, we study how the scale invariance breaking effect modifies the no-eternal inflation condition as the renormalizability of the reheating surface volume. For this purpose, we adopt two independent approaches: investigating the behavior of the normal ordered reheating surface volume operator under a shift of the curvature perturbation, and analyzing the coarse-graining structure to obtain the scaling dimension. Both approaches commonly reveal that as long as varepsilon is negative, which is consistent with observations, the fractal structure of the reheating surface volume breaks down at macroscopic scale, moderating the no-eternal inflation condition.

The cosmology of the F(R) gravity rebuilding by the Cartan formalism is investigated. This is called Cartan F(R) gravity. The well-known F(R) gravity has been introduced to extend the standard cosmology, e.g. to explain the cosmological accelerated expansion as the inflation. Cartan F(R) gravity is based on the Riemann-Cartan geometry. The curvature R can separate to two parts, one is derived from the Levi-Civita connection and the other from the torsion. Assuming the matter-independent spin connection, we have successfully rewritten the action of Cartan F(R) gravity into the Einstein-Hilbert action and a scalar field with canonical kinetic and potential terms without any conformal transformations. This feature simplifies building and analysis of new model of inflation. In this paper, we study two models, the power-law model and logarithmic model, and evaluate fluctuations in the cosmological microwave background (CMB) radiation. We found the robustness of CMB fluctuation by the analytical computation and confirm this feature by the numerical calculation.

Does microeconomic heterogeneity help to forecast aggregate inflation in a non-stationary environment? We develop a scan test for whether one forecast outperforms another, over an interval with unknown starting point and duration. To exploit any occasional forecasting power that the scan test detects, we design an adaptive machine learning pipeline. We encode the distribution of price changes into a high-dimensional vector, which we combine with a gradient boosted trees algorithm. We then combine this micro forecast with other benchmark forecasts, using an adaptive algorithm that makes use of the micro forecast only when it performs well. We apply the pipeline to UK microdata, with four main results. First, the micro forecast outperforms a univariate benchmark, but only in the volatile period after 2020. Second, the scan test detects periods of micro outperformance, so the micro forecast enters the combined forecast. Third, the combined forecast performs comparably to the univariate benchmark before 2020 and better at every horizon after 2020. Fourth, the value of microdata for the combined forecast materializes after 2020. We conclude that microdata are valuable for forecasting aggregate inflation, but only after large shocks.

Recent observations by the James Webb Space Telescope have revealed massive galaxies at very high redshift (zsimeq 7-15). The question of whether the existence of such galaxies is expected in the corresponding JWST surveys has received a lot of attention, though the answer straddles areas of cosmology and complex astrophysical details of high-redshift galaxy formation. The growth rate of density fluctuations determines the amplitude of overdensities that collapse to form galaxies. Late-time modifications of growth, combined with measurements at both zsim 1 from large-scale structure and zsim 1000 from the cosmic microwave background, affect the predictions for the abundance of first galaxies in the universe. In this paper, we point out that the late-time growth rate of structure affects the statistical significance of high-redshift, high-mass objects very weakly. Consequently, if the existence and abundance of these objects are confirmed to be unexpected, the variations in the late-time growth history are unlikely to explain these anomalies.

Scalar fields are ubiquitous in theories of high-energy physics. In the context of cosmic inflation, this suggests the existence of spectator fields, which provide a subdominant source of energy density. We show that spectator fields boost the inflationary production of primordial black holes, with single-field ultra-slow roll evolution supplanted by a phase of evolution along the spectator direction, and primordial perturbations amplified by the resulting multifield dynamics. This generic mechanism is largely free from the severe fine-tuning that afflicts single-field inflationary PBH models.

This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based LLM fine-tuned to predict inflation-related sentiment in news. We use this model to produce NEWS, an index capturing the monthly sentiment of the news regarding inflation. Incorporating our expectation index into the Cleveland Fed's model, which is only based on macroeconomic autoregressive processes, shows a marginal improvement in nowcast accuracy during the pandemic. This highlights the potential of combining sentiment analysis with traditional economic indicators, suggesting further research to refine these methodologies for better real-time inflation monitoring. The source code is available at https://github.com/paultltc/InflaBERT.

We explore a minimal scenario where the sole Standard-Model Higgs is responsible for reheating the Universe after inflation, produces a significant background of gravitational waves and maintains the full classical stability of the electroweak vacuum. As the Higgs self-coupling runs toward negative values at high energy scales, a non-minimal interaction with curvature during a stiff background expansion era drives the Higgs fluctuations closer to the instability scale. This curvature-induced tachyonic instability leads to an intense production of Higgs particles, accompanied by a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The characteristic features of such signal can be directly correlated to the inflationary scale, the non-minimal coupling parameter and the top quark Yukawa coupling. We distinguish between three possible scenarios: absolute stability with low top quark masses, potential vacuum instability, and absolute stability with new physics above the instability scale. Our findings suggest that the detection of a peaked background of gravitational waves together with its inflationary tail has the potential to unveil the features of the Higgs effective potential at very high energy scales while providing a minimal explanation for the reheating phase and the emergence of the Standard-Model plasma in the early Universe. Unlike other studies in the literature, the generation of gravitational waves in our scenario does not depend on the quantum instability of the Standard Model vacuum.

Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta = -0.9224, CI: [-0.9727, -0.8571]). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio = 0.9061, p = 0.504). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Calculating the action and the interaction Hamiltonian at higher orders in cosmological perturbation theory is a cumbersome task. We employ the formalism of EFT of inflation in models of single field ultra slow-roll inflation and obtain a non-perturbative result for the Hamiltonian in terms of the Goldstone field pi. To complete the dictionary, a non-linear relation between the curvature perturbations and pi is presented. Equipped with these non-linear results, we calculate the higher order loop corrections in USR models which are employed for PBHs formation. It is shown that the loop corrections on long CMB scales increase rapidly with the number of loop L and the setup will go out of perturbative control at the four-loop level.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

Recent measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the South Pole Telescope (SPT) have placed the strictest constraints on the primordial scalar perturbation spectrum, reporting a spectral index of n_ssim0.967-0.98 at 95% confidence level. This result indicates a stronger scale invariance of the scalar perturbation than earlier estimates, posing challenges for numerous inflation models. In this work, we propose a novel inflationary scenario based on Weyl scale-invariant gravity, where the quadratic curvature establishes the scale invariance of the scalar spectrum, while the higher-order extensions imprint the observed slight deviation. Specifically, the exponential curvature extensions are introduced to suppress the mass divergence of the inflaton. We find such scenario naturally yields leading-order predictions of n_ssimeq1-3/(2N)sim0.97-0.975 or n_ssimeq1-5/(3N)sim0.967-0.972 for various models, in excellent agreement with the ACT/SPT constraints. This result builds a concrete bridge between theoretical and observational scale invariance, implying an enduring cosmic echo of the primordial symmetry.

Current observations indicate that an inverse exponential form of the inflaton potential provides an excellent description of single-field inflation. This potential fits the SPA+BK+DESI data sets well with in the 1σ bound in the n_{rm s}-r plane, thereby offering a simple and observationally viable single field inflationary scenario. To describe post-inflationary evolution and reheating, we extend the inverse exponential potential by adding a steep exponential term that remains negligible during inflation but becomes important afterwards. The resulting full potential develops a minimum after the end of inflation, leading to oscillations of the scalar field and consequently reheating of the Universe. We find that the maximum reheating temperature attainable in this scenario is of order 10^{13},GeV. The inverse exponential potential therefore emerges as a compelling candidate for early-Universe inflation, combining theoretical simplicity with robust observational viability.

A stochastic gravitational wave background causes the apparent positions of distant sources to fluctuate, with angular deflections of order the characteristic strain amplitude of the gravitational waves. These fluctuations may be detectable with high precision astrometry, as first suggested by Braginsky et al. in 1990. Several researchers have made order of magnitude estimates of the upper limits obtainable on the gravitational wave spectrum \Omega_gw(f), at frequencies of order f ~ 1 yr^-1, both for the future space-based optical interferometry missions GAIA and SIM, and for VLBI interferometry in radio wavelengths with the SKA. For GAIA, tracking N ~ 10^6 quasars over a time of T ~ 1 yr with an angular accuracy of \Delta \theta ~ 10 \mu as would yield a sensitivity level of \Omega_gw ~ (\Delta \theta)^2/(N T^2 H_0^2) ~ 10^-6, which would be comparable with pulsar timing. In this paper we take a first step toward firming up these estimates by computing in detail the statistical properties of the angular deflections caused by a stochastic background. We compute analytically the two point correlation function of the deflections on the sphere, and the spectrum as a function of frequency and angular scale. The fluctuations are concentrated at low frequencies (for a scale invariant stochastic background), and at large angular scales, starting with the quadrupole. The magnetic-type and electric-type pieces of the fluctuations have equal amounts of power.

Stochastic bubble nucleation makes the local completion time of a first-order phase transition a random spatial field. We study its power spectrum and equilateral bispectrum in Minkowski and de Sitter backgrounds, with particular emphasis on the infrared consequences of a finite transition duration. In an eternally extended de Sitter history, rare bubbles nucleated in the remote past generate an ancient-bubble tail that produces a hierarchy of infrared-sensitive spatial moments. For the two-point function, the first finite-k correction becomes tail sensitive at H/β=1/5, while the leading moment becomes singular at H/β=1/3. The corresponding three-point thresholds are H/β=1/8 and 1/6, showing that the bispectrum is more infrared sensitive than the power spectrum. For any finite starting time, however, the ancient-bubble tail is cut off, all spatial moments remain finite, and the strict infrared spectra recover the analytic white-noise limits {cal P}_τpropto k^3 and {cal B}^{rm eq}_τpropto k^6. The eternal-background thresholds instead control the duration dependence of the moment coefficients and the crossover into an intermediate tail-sensitive regime, in agreement with our numerical calculations. We further show that temporal localization of the nucleation history provides a smooth regulator of the ancient-bubble tail and restores the same analytic infrared limits. These results establish a general first-arrival framework for completion-time fluctuations and clarify how de Sitter expansion can generate distinct power-spectrum and bispectrum infrared hierarchies relevant to curvature perturbations and non-Gaussianity.

In this work we study static neutron stars in the context of several inflationary models which are popular in cosmology. These inflationary models are non-minimally coupled scalar theories which yield a viable inflationary phenomenology in both Jordan and Einstein frames. By considering the constraints from inflationary theories, which basically determine the values of the potential strength, usually considered as a free parameter in astrophysical neutron star works, we construct and solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equations using a solid python-3 LSODA integrator. For our study we consider several popular inflationary models, such as the universal attractors, the R^p attractors (three distinct model values), the induced inflation, the quadratic inflation, the Higgs inflation and the a-attractors (two distinct model values) and for the following popular equations of state the WFF1, the SLy, the APR, the MS1, the AP3, the AP4, the ENG, the MPA1 and the MS1b. We construct the M-R diagram and we confront the resulting theory with theoretical and observational constraints. As we demonstrate, remarkably, all the neutron stars produced by all the inflationary models we considered are compatible with all the constraints for the MPA1 equation of state. It is notable that for this particular equation of state, the maximum masses of the neutron stars are in the mass-gap region with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit. We also make the observation that as the NICER constraints are pushed towards larger radii, as for example in the case of the black widow pulsar PSR J0952-0607, it seems that equations of state that produce neutron stars with maximum masses in the mass gap region, with M>2.5M_{odot}, but lower than the 3 solar masses causal limit, are favored and are compatible with the modified NICER constraints.

We present DeepInflation, an AI agent designed for research and model discovery in inflationary cosmology. Built upon a multi-agent architecture, DeepInflation integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with a symbolic regression (SR) engine and a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) knowledge base. This framework enables the agent to automatically explore and verify the vast landscape of inflationary potentials while grounding its outputs in established theoretical literature. We demonstrate that DeepInflation can successfully discover simple and viable single-field slow-roll inflationary potentials consistent with the latest observations (here ACT DR6 results as example) or any given n_s and r, and provide accurate theoretical context for obscure inflationary scenarios. DeepInflation serves as a prototype for a new generation of autonomous scientific discovery engines in cosmology, which enables researchers and non-experts alike to explore the inflationary landscape using natural language. This agent is available at https://github.com/pengzy-cosmo/DeepInflation.

The reionization of helium is thought to occur at 2.5lesssim zlesssim4, marking the last phase transition and final global heating event of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Since it is driven by rare quasars, helium reionization should give rise to strong temperature fluctuations in the IGM between neutral and recently-ionized regions of order sigma (ln T) sim Delta T/T = 20-50%. We introduce a novel method to search for reionization-induced temperature fluctuations in the IGM by using the effective optical depths of the Lyman-alpha forest towards a large number of background quasars. Higher IGM temperatures give rise to lower effective optical depths in the Lyman-alpha forest, implying that temperature fluctuations will broaden the observed optical depth distribution. We measured the distributions of effective Lyman-alpha forest optical depths across 71 X-Shooter spectra from the XQ-100 survey in four redshift bins from z=3.76 to z=4.19 and compared them to a large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. A good agreement is found between the observations and the simulation, which does not include temperature fluctuations; therefore, we do not detect a signature of helium reionization. We then post-process the simulations to include an increasing amount of temperature fluctuations until the model becomes inconsistent with the observations. We obtain tight constraints on sigma (ln T) < 0.29 (<0.40) at 2 sigma (3 sigma) at z=3.76 when averaging over scales of 100 comoving Mpc, and weaker constraints for higher redshifts and smaller scales. Our constraints are the tightest to date, and imply that either the IGM temperature contrast caused by helium reionization is less than sim30%, or that the process has not yet significantly started at z=3.76.

We investigate scale-dependent modifications to the primordial scalar power spectrum as potential solutions to the Hubble tension. We use the Fisher-bias formalism, recently adapted to examine perturbed recombination solutions to the Hubble tension, and extend its range of validity with an iterative method. We first analyze the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data, demonstrating the existence of modifications to the primordial power spectrum capable of fully resolving the tension between Planck and SH0ES. As a proof of concept, we interpret these solutions in terms of small, time-dependent variations in the first slow roll parameter or in the sound speed of curvature perturbations during a stage of primordial inflation. However, these solutions are associated with a low total matter density Ω_m, which makes them inconsistent with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and uncalibrated supernovae (SNIa) data. When incorporating additional BOSS and PantheonPlus data, the solutions that reduce the Hubble tension tend to overfit Planck CMB data to compensate for the worsened fit to BAO and SNIa data, making them less compelling. These findings suggest that modifying the primordial power spectrum alone is unlikely to provide a robust resolution to the tension and highlight how the viability of such data-driven solutions depends on the specific datasets considered, emphasizing the role of future high-precision observations in further constraining possible resolutions to the tension.

We investigate inflationary magnetogenesis with massive vector fields, including charged scalar particle production via the Schwinger effect and its backreaction on the background electric energy density. Initially neglecting the Schwinger effect, we quantize the vector field and solve the equations of motion for transverse and longitudinal modes, computing the energy momentum tensor. We then incorporate the backreaction of the electric energy density and show that the longitudinal energy density is subleading compared to the electric background. Since the electric energy density dominates the magnetic contribution, we can treat the former separately from the perturbative contributions. We adopt this approach when studying particle production via the Schwinger effect, assuming that its backreaction acts only on the background electric energy density. The latter is computed using a classical background electromagnetic field minimally coupled to a quantum complex scalar field. The magnetic and longitudinal components are instead described through quantum fields. In this framework, the Schwinger production affects only the electric energy density, as long as it remains dominant compared to the other components. As a consistency check, we verify that for a null coupling constant we recover the same electric energy density as obtained within the fully quantum electromagnetic description. Finally, we show that for non-null coupling constants Schwinger particle production drastically reduces the electric energy density during the final stages of inflation.

We study a mechanism to produce the circular polarization of primordial gravitational waves. The circular polarization is generated during the super-inflation driven by the Gauss-Bonnet term in the string-inspired cosmology. The instability in the tensor mode caused by the Gauss-Bonnet term and the parity violation due to the gravitational Chern-Simons term are the essential ingredients of the mechanism. We also discuss detectability of the produced circular polarization of gravitational waves. It turns out that the simple model of single-field inflation contradicts CMB observations. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose a two-field inflation model. In this two-field model, the circular polarization of gravitational waves is created in the frequency range designed by the Big-Bang Observer (BBO) or the deci-hertz gravitational-wave observatory (DECIGO).

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 211211A and GRB 060614, believed to originate from the merger of compact objects, exhibit similarities to the jetted tidal disruption event (TDE) Sw J1644+57, by showing violent variabilities in the light-curve during the decay phase. Previous studies suggest that such fluctuations in TDE may arise from the fallback of tidal disrupted debris. In this paper, we introduce the fluctuations of the mass distribution {rm d}M/{rm d}E for the debris ejected during the tidal disruption (with energy E) and study their impact on jet power. Turbulence induced by tidal force and the self-gravity of the debris may imprint variabilities in {rm d}M/{rm d}E during fallback. We model these fluctuations with a power density spectrum propto f_{rm E}^{beta}, where f_{rm E} = 1/E and beta is the power-law index. We find that the resulting light curve can preserve the fluctuation characteristics from {rm d}M/{rm d}E. In addition, the observed fluctuations in the light-curves can be reproduced for a given suitable beta. Based on the observations, we find that the value of beta should be around -1.

The injection of early dark energy (EDE) before the recombination, a possible resolution of the Hubble tension, will not only shift the scalar spectral index n_s towards n_s=1, but also be likely to tighten the current upper limit on tensor-to-scalar ratio r. In this work, with the latest CMB datasets (Planck PR4, ACT, SPT and BICEP/Keck), as well as BAO and SN, we confirm this result, and discuss its implication on inflation. We also show that if we happen to live with EDE, how the different inflation models currently allowed would be distinguished by planned CMB observations, such as CMB-S4 and LiteBIRD.

We study, within a toy model, how a thermal bath of cosmological perturbations can decohere the minisuperspace degrees of freedom of the universe, treating the perturbations as an environment in the framework of open quantum systems. Instead of tracing out the perturbations from a semiclassical ansatz for the total wave function, as in earlier approaches, we incorporate their backreaction on the background through an effective second-order coupling and derive a master equation. The model describes a spatially flat semiclassical universe during slow-roll inflation with a dust clock field, while scalar cosmological perturbations in a phenomenologically assumed thermal state constitute the environment. The master equation is non-Markovian, since the bath correlation functions do not decay in time. Within this framework, we find that, for a representative set of parameter estimates, the characteristic decoherence timescale corresponding to the thermal contribution can be shorter than the Hubble timescale. In addition, we address the question of whether the pointer-state structure induced by the decoherence in such a framework could provide a criterion for the choice of semiclassical states in quantum cosmology.

We consider the possibility that gravity breaks parity, with left and right handed gravitons coupling to matter with a different Newton's constant and show that this would affect their zero-point vacuum fluctuations during inflation. Should there be a cosmic background of gravity waves, the effect would translate into anomalous CMB polarization. Non-vanishing TB (and EB) polarization components emerge, revealing interesting experimental targets. Indeed if reasonable chirality is present a TB measurement would provide the easiest way to detect a gravitational wave background. We speculate on the theoretical implications of such an observation.

We revisit axion monodromy inflation in the context of UV-complete theories and point out that its cosmological observables are sensitive to heavy fields with masses far above the Hubble scale, such as the moduli of flux compactifications. By studying a string-inspired two-field extension of axion monodromy, we reveal that the oscillatory modulation of the axion potential leads to continuous excitation of heavy fields during inflation when the modulation frequency exceeds the field masses. This finding challenges the conventional single-field description, as heavy moduli cannot be simply integrated out. Using a full bootstrap analysis, we demonstrate that this mechanism produces cosmological collider signals that bypass the usual Boltzmann suppression for heavy masses. Specifically, we identify detectably large signatures of heavy moduli in the primordial bispectrum, offering a promising avenue for probing high-energy physics through cosmological observations.

This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality model to examine the impact on inflation expectations. Results show that experts form more conservative expectations, anticipating FOMC stabilization actions, while non-experts react more directly to inflation concerns. A lead-lag analysis indicates that institutions adjust faster, though the gap with individual investors narrows in the short term. These findings highlight the need for tailored communication strategies to better align public expectations with policy goals.

We study the inflationary phenomenology of a rescaled Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet gravity. In this framework, the gravitational constant of the Einstein-Hilbert term is rescaled due to effective terms active in the high curvature era. Basically, the total theory is an F(R,G,phi) theory with the Gauss-Bonnet part contributing only a non-minimal coupling to the scalar field, so it is a theory with string theory origins and with a non-trivial F(R) gravity part. The F(R) gravity part in the high curvature regime contributes only a rescaled Einstein-Hilbert term and thus the resulting theory is effectively a rescaled version of a standard Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet theory. We develop the formalism of rescaled Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet gravity, taking in account the GW170817 constraints on the gravitational wave speed. We show explicitly how the rescaled theory affects directly the primordial scalar and tensor perturbations, and how the slow-roll and observational indices of inflation are affected by the rescaling of the theory. We perform a thorough phenomenological analysis of several models of interest and we show that is it possible to obtain viable inflationary theories compatible with the latest Planck data. Also among the studied models there are cases that yield a relatively large blue tilted tensor spectral index and we demonstrate that these models can lead to detectable primordial gravitational waves in the future gravitational wave experiments. Some of the scenarios examined, for specific values of the reheating temperature may be detectable by SKA, LISA, BBO, DECIGO and the Einstein Telescope.

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

We report a measurement of the E-mode polarization power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using 150 GHz data taken from July 2014 to December 2016 with the POLARBEAR experiment. We reach an effective polarization map noise level of 32,μK-arcmin across an observation area of 670 square degrees. We measure the EE power spectrum over the angular multipole range 500 leq ell <3000, tracing the third to seventh acoustic peaks with high sensitivity. The statistical uncertainty on E-mode bandpowers is sim 2.3 μ{rm K}^2 at ell sim 1000 with a systematic uncertainty of 0.5μ{rm K}^2. The data are consistent with the standard ΛCDM cosmological model with a probability-to-exceed of 0.38. We combine recent CMB E-mode measurements and make inferences about cosmological parameters in ΛCDM as well as in extensions to ΛCDM. Adding the ground-based CMB polarization measurements to the Planck dataset reduces the uncertainty on the Hubble constant by a factor of 1.2 to H_0 = 67.20 pm 0.57 {rm km,s^{-1} ,Mpc^{-1}}. When allowing the number of relativistic species (N_{eff}) to vary, we find N_{eff} = 2.94 pm 0.16, which is in good agreement with the standard value of 3.046. Instead allowing the primordial helium abundance (Y_{He}) to vary, the data favor Y_{He} = 0.248 pm 0.012. This is very close to the expectation of 0.2467 from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. When varying both Y_{He} and N_{eff}, we find N_{eff} = 2.70 pm 0.26 and Y_{He} = 0.262 pm 0.015.

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

Repeated studies of the CMB based on WMAP data have revealed an apparent asymmetry in the distribution of temperature fluctuations over the celestial sphere. The studies indicate that the amplitudes of temperature fluctuations are higher in one hemisphere than in the other. We consider whether this asymmetry could originate from a large scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume. We examine what effect the presence of an inhomogeneity in the gravitational field of size larger than the present Hubble radius would have on the temperature distribution of the CMB and start eliciting its observational signature in the CMB power spectrum. The covariance function contains, in addition to the diagonal entries of the conventional CMB temperature anisostropy power spectrum, non-diagonal entries. We find that specific non-diagonal entries of the covariance function are sensitive to the strength of the inhomogeneity, while the diagonal entries are not. These non-diagonal entries, which are not present in the case of a homogeneous background geometry, are observational signatures of a large-scale inhomogeneity in the background geometry of the universe. Furthermore, we find that an inhomogeneity in the gravitational potential of super-Hubble size would yield a power asymmetry in the CMB with maximal asymmetry at an angle of 90 degrees to the CMB dipole axis. The axis of the CMB power asymmetry was recently estimated by Eriksen et. al. to be located at angles between 83 and 96 degrees to the CMB dipole axis, which is consistent with the prediction of our model. This implies that the location of the observed power asymmetry in the CMB sky could be accounted for by a large-scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume.

We derive the canonically normalized modes of a two-field inflationary system with arbitrary constant quadratic mixing and unequal sound speeds c_φ and c_σ for the curvature and isocurvature perturbations, respectively. A Laplace representation reduces the coupled dynamics to a second-order Heun equation and gives the exact late-time curvature power spectrum for arbitrary values of the mixing parameter and entropy mass. The sound-speed ratio r_c=c_σ/c_φ controls the separation between the two sound horizons. At fixed nonzero mixing and r_cll1, the power exhibits power-law enhancement, growth as ln^2(1/r_c), or bounded oscillations in ln r_c, depending on the mass and mixing. For r_cgg1, the correction to the unmixed spectrum vanishes as ln r_c/r_c^2 at fixed mass and mixing. Using the same normalized modes, we compute the tree-level bispectrum for three representative cubic interactions, with the mixing parameter treated exactly. For heavy entropy fields, unequal speeds modify the collider amplitude and phase while preserving the strict squeezed frequency set by the final entropy mass. The power-normalized amplitude can vary nonmonotonically with r_c, and a sound-speed hierarchy can delay the approach to this asymptotic regime.

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco and Samuroff et al. (2021), presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg^2 on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the ΛCDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, S_8equiv σ_8 (Ω_{rm m}/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.759^{+0.025}_{-0.023}. A ΛCDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of S_8= 0.772^{+0.018}_{-0.017} that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered S_8 values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by 2.3σ and 2.1σ (p-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the S_8 posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit S_8 by 0.5σ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.

Galaxy number counts suggest that we are located within the Gpc-scale KBC void. The Hubble tension might arise due to gravitationally driven outflow from this void, as explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We explore how the impact of the void on redshift decays at large distances. We define H_0(z) as the present expansion rate H_0 that would be inferred from observations in a narrow redshift range centred on z. We find H_0(z) in three different ways, all of which give similar results. We then compare these results with the observations of Jia et al., who were careful to minimise the impact of correlations between H_0 measurements from data in different redshift bins. We find reasonable agreement with their results for the Gaussian and Exponential void underdensity profiles, although the agreement is less good in the Maxwell-Boltzmann case. The latter profile causes severe disagreement with the observed bulk flow curve at z < 0.1 (Mazurenko et al.), so the tension with higher redshift data further highlights that the deepest part of the KBC void is probably near its centre. The observations show a decline of H_0(z) towards the background Planck value in qualitative agreement with the considered models, even if we use a larger void. The good overall agreement with the recent results of Jia et al. suggests that the local supervoid evident from the galaxy luminosity density out to a Gpc might also solve the Hubble tension while retaining a low background H_0 consistent with Planck data, assuming enhanced structure formation on >100 Mpc scales.

We explore the consequences of multi-trace deformations in applications of gauge-gravity duality to condensed matter physics. We find that they introduce a powerful new "knob" that can implement spontaneous symmetry breaking, and can be used to construct a new type of holographic superconductor. This knob can be tuned to drive the critical temperature to zero, leading to a new quantum critical point. We calculate nontrivial critical exponents, and show that fluctuations of the order parameter are `locally' quantum critical in the disordered phase. Most notably the dynamical critical exponent is determined by the dimension of an operator at the critical point. We argue that the results are robust against quantum corrections and discuss various generalizations.

Standard-Model warm inflation (SMWI) makes QCD the microscopic origin of inflationary dissipation, so the real-time response of the gauge plasma enters the cosmological prediction. We show that a slowly relaxing gauge-helicity response cannot, in general, be absorbed into an effective friction coefficient and must instead remain dynamical. We therefore evolve the quark axial densities and a matched hard-helicity mode, with QCD sphalerons and an effective 2leftrightarrow3 channel generating both charge transfer and correlated stochastic sources in the full perturbation covariance system. The resulting backreaction is substantial but mainly indirect: gauge-helicity screening can reduce the warm dissipation ratio by an order-one fraction on the strong branch, while the 2leftrightarrow3 channel contributes only 0.2%-0.7% of the zero-density sphaleron friction directly, shifting the amplitude-normalized trajectory in both n_s and r_{rm vac}. The relevant trajectories, however, lack a parametrically broad hard-soft hierarchy and extend beyond strict linear response. The predictions should therefore be understood within the stated local Gaussian transport closure; a parameter-free Standard-Model (SM) result requires finite-affinity real-time SU(3) drift, susceptibility, and noise kernels.

We study primordial gravitational waves produced during inflation in quantum gravity at a Lifshitz point proposed by Ho{rmr}ava. Assuming power-counting renormalizability, foliation preserving diffeomorphism invariance, and the condition of detailed balance, we show that primordial gravitational waves are circularly polarized due to parity violation. The chirality of primordial gravitational waves is a quite robust prediction of quantum gravity at a Lifshitz point which can be tested through observations of cosmic microwave background radiation and stochastic gravitational waves.

In a two-band superconductor, two qualitatively different fluctuation modes related to the gap modules contribute to free energy and heat capacity, in addition to the phase fluctuations. The first mode has divergent temperature behaviour since it accounts for the critical fluctuations around the phase transition point, Tc, along with pseudo-critical ones associated with former instability of the weaker-superconductivity component. The involvement of these two factors, competing under interband interaction, results in the Ginzburg number which increases with Tc non-monotonically, allowing the reduction up to 75%. This makes fluctuations effective for revealing additional superconducting component in the system. The second mode does not diverge, but has a jump at Tc, defined uniquely by the strength of interband interaction. This mode contributes fundamentally beyond critical domain.

We construct high-accuracy semi-analytic mode functions for scalar cosmological perturbations in mLQC-I within the hybrid approach to study ultraviolet regularity and gravitational particle creation. The evolution comprises an asymptotic pre-de Sitter branch, a pre-inflationary region containing the quantum bounce, and inflation. In the intermediate region, we construct the complete third-order uniform asymptotic solution and introduce adaptive defect correction. The third-order approximation achieves sub-percent complex-mode accuracy for representative higher-wavenumber modes; defect-corrected solutions agree with numerical evolution at the 0.00001% level over the tested low-wavenumber range. Retaining amplitudes and phases provides a controlled basis for future precision calculations of primordial power spectra and non-Gaussian correlations. We compare the de Sitter vacuum selected in the remote contracting branch with a fourth-order adiabatic state imposed at the bounce. Finite-wavenumber matching and the strict ultraviolet limit require different asymptotic treatments: extrapolating the leading connection to infinite wavenumber yields a spurious constant negative-frequency coefficient and an apparent ultraviolet divergence. Instead, the large-wavenumber de Sitter mode agrees with the fourth-order adiabatic expansion through the order required for energy-momentum tensor renormalization, and smooth exact evolution preserves this ultraviolet structure. Finite and intermediate modes can nevertheless undergo nonadiabatic Bogoliubov mixing and particle creation. Finite-mode particle production thus coexists with ultraviolet regularity. The ultraviolet argument also extends to the dressed-metric approach in its corresponding large-wavenumber regime, while quantitative mode functions must be recalculated using its effective mass.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

We study the production of QCD axion dark matter (DM) via vacuum and kinetic misalignment mechanisms during an extended reheating period after the end of slow-roll inflation. With pre-inflationary Peccei-Quinn breaking and considering a monomial inflaton potential during reheating, we classify our study into three different perturbative reheating scenarios in which the inflaton decays into (i) a pair of Standard Model (SM)-like bosons, (ii) a pair of SM-like fermions, or (iii) exclusively into a pair of heavy right-handed neutrinos, which eventually decays into the SM final states after dominating the energy density of the Universe for an intermediate epoch. For each of these reheating scenarios, we study the details of QCD axion relic separately via vacuum and kinetic misalignment mechanisms. For different combinations of reheating, monomial inflaton potential and misalignment mechanisms, we identify the parameter space consistent with the observed DM relic density while satisfying other cosmological and laboratory constraints. We also check the scope of probing the currently allowed parameter space at axion-detection and gravitational wave (GW) experiments.

The James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) discovery of an unexpectedly high abundance of UV-bright galaxies at redshifts z > 10 poses a significant challenge to the standard LambdaCDM cosmology. This work tests whether this tension can be resolved solely by modifying the cosmological background, without invoking significant evolution in the astrophysical properties of early galaxies. We investigate an alternative framework featuring the presence of an anti-de Sitter vacuum in the dark energy sector, a model that naturally arises in quantum gravity models like string theory and can enhance early structure formation. Using a self-consistent semi-analytical model that couples galaxy evolution with reionization, we confront this scenario with a wide range of observations. We first show that while a model tailored to fit the high-z UV luminosity functions (UVLFs) shows promise, it is in strong tension with well-established cosmological constraints from the CMB and other low-redshift probes. Conversely, models within this framework that are consistent with these constraints provide only a modest boost to structure formation and fail to reproduce the observed JWST galaxy abundances at z > 10. While these models remain consistent with the cosmic reionization history, our primary result is that this class of cosmological modifications is insufficient on its own to explain the galaxy excess. Our study underscores the critical importance of holistic testing for any beyond-LambdaCDM proposal; apparent success in one observational regime does not guarantee overall viability. By demonstrating the limitations of a purely cosmological solution, our results strengthen the case that evolving astrophysical properties are a necessary ingredient for solving the challenge of early galaxy formation.

We demonstrate that violent kinetic preheating following inflation can lead to the formation of black holes in the early Universe. In alpha-attractor models with derivative inflaton couplings, nonlinear amplification of field fluctuations drives large spacetime curvature and gravitational collapse shortly after inflation ends. Using fully general-relativistic lattice simulations, we find that these dynamics produce black holes with masses of order tens of grams at sub-horizon scales, without requiring large primordial curvature perturbations. Although such micro-black holes evaporate rapidly via Hawking radiation, their formation modifies the post-inflationary equation of state and their evaporation can successfully reheat the Universe before Big Bang nucleosynthesis. These results identify kinetic preheating as a new, efficient channel for black-hole production and establish a direct connection between inflationary symmetries and strong-gravity phenomena at reheating.

In this review, we discuss the relevance and impact of studying Calabi-Yau threefolds in the context of global model building in string phenomenology. First, taking a phenomenologist-friendly approach, we review how the topologies of the various divisors and curves of the compactifying CY threefolds play a crucial role for generating the various ``suitable" classes of effective scalar potentials, within the framework of the popular moduli stabilization schemes such as KKLT and LVS. Subsequently, we discuss the impact of the specifics of the CY threefold geometries in the minimal LVS inflationary models such as fibre inflation, in particular, along the challenges such as the inflaton field-range bound. In this regard, we discuss a multi-field approach in which several fibre moduli assist to drive successful inflation having a sufficient number of efolds, without getting close to their individual Kähler cone boundaries.

We study the dynamics of gravitons in a squeezed vacuum state in a thermal radiation background. Unlike traditional treatments that rely on the Boltzmann equation, we employ the Heisenberg equation and average it over general quantum states. In contrast to the usual Boltzmann-based descriptions, our approach captures the subtleties arising from quantum coherence in different number eigenstates, which is essential for soft graviton modes in the squeezed vacuum state. Our new method successfully reproduces the previous one-loop results within the in-in formalism when the expansion parameter is small and deviates significantly as the parameter increases, indicating that our results extend beyond the one-loop in-in formalism. We examine the implications of graviton emission effects stimulated by quantum coherence in both flat and expanding backgrounds. In the flat background, it is found that backreaction of radiation on the spacetime dynamics is crucial for significant stimulated emission. In the expanding background, to avoid the subtleties associated with superhorizon modes, we investigate the effect of emission within the horizon immediately after reheating and find a significant effect. We examined the IR graviton evolution from a symmetry perspective and propose a regularization prescription to eliminate the secular growth problem.

CMB-S4, the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) observatory, will provide detailed maps of the CMB at millimeter wavelengths to dramatically advance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. CMB-S4 will deploy large and small aperture telescopes with hundreds of thousands of detectors to observe the CMB at arcminute and degree resolutions at millimeter wavelengths. Inflationary science benefits from a deep delensing survey at arcminute resolutions capable of observing a large field of view at millimeter wavelengths. This kind of survey acts as a complement to a degree angular resolution survey. The delensing survey requires a nearly uniform distribution of cameras per frequency band across the focal plane. We present a large-throughput, large-aperture (5-meter diameter) freeform three-mirror anastigmatic telescope and an array of 85 cameras for CMB observations at arcminute resolutions, which meets the needs of the delensing survey of CMB-S4. A detailed prescription of this three-mirror telescope and cameras is provided, with a series of numerical calculations that indicate expected optical performance and mechanical tolerance.

We use new cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) to test foundational assumptions of the standard cosmological model and set constraints on extensions to it. We derive constraints from the ACT DR6 power spectra alone, as well as in combination with legacy data from Planck. To break geometric degeneracies, we include ACT and Planck CMB lensing data and baryon acoustic oscillation data from DESI Year-1, and further add supernovae measurements from Pantheon+ for models that affect the late-time expansion history. We verify the near-scale-invariance (running of the spectral index d n_s/dln k = 0.0062 pm 0.0052) and adiabaticity of the primordial perturbations. Neutrino properties are consistent with Standard Model predictions: we find no evidence for new light, relativistic species that are free-streaming (N_{rm eff} = 2.86 pm 0.13, which combined with external BBN data becomes N_{rm eff} = 2.89 pm 0.11), for non-zero neutrino masses (sum m_nu < 0.082 eV at 95% CL), or for neutrino self-interactions. We also find no evidence for self-interacting dark radiation (N_{rm idr} < 0.134), early-universe variation of fundamental constants, early dark energy, primordial magnetic fields, or modified recombination. Our data are consistent with standard BBN, the FIRAS-inferred CMB temperature, a dark matter component that is collisionless and with only a small fraction allowed as axion-like particles, a cosmological constant, and the late-time growth rate predicted by general relativity. We find no statistically significant preference for a departure from the baseline LambdaCDM model. In general, models introduced to increase the Hubble constant or to decrease the amplitude of density fluctuations inferred from the primary CMB are not favored by our data.

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML model, namely shrinkage regression, ensemble learning, and super vector regression, to that of the univariate time series ARIMA and SARIMA models. We examine various out-of-bag sample periods in each ML model to determine the appropriate data-splitting ratios for the regression case study. This study indicates that all ML models produced lower RMSEs and reduced average forecast errors by 45.16 percent relative to the ARIMA benchmark, with the Extreme Gradient Boosting model outperforming other ML models and the benchmark. Using the Shapley value, we discovered that numerous payment system variables significantly predict inflation. We explore the ML forecast using local Shapley decomposition and show the relationship between the explanatory variables and inflation for interpretation. The interpretation of the ML forecast highlights some significant findings and offers insightful recommendations, enhancing previous economic research that uses a more established econometric method. Our findings advocate ML models as supplementary tools for the central bank to predict inflation and support monetary policy.

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

We allow the Higgs field Phi to interact with a dilaton field chi of the background spacetime via the coupling chi^2,Phi^daggerPhi. Upon spontaneous gauge symmetry breaking, the Higgs VEV becomes proportional to chi. While traditionally this linkage is employed to make the Planck mass and particle masses dependent on chi, we present an textit alternative mechanism: the Higgs VEV will be used to construct Planck's constant hbar and speed of light c. Specifically, each open set vicinity of a given point x^* on the spacetime manifold is equipped with a replica of the Glashow-Weinberg-Salam action operating with its own effective values of hbar_* and c_* per hbar_*proptochi^{-1/2}(x^*) and c_*proptochi^{1/2}(x^*), causing these ``fundamental constants'' to vary alongside the dynamical field chi. Moreover, in each open set around x^*, the prevailing value chi(x^*) determines the length and time scales for physical processes occurring in this region as lproptochi^{-1}(x^*) and tauproptochi^{-3/2}(x^*). This leads to an textit anisotropic relation tau^{-1}propto l^{-3/2} between the rate of clocks and the length of rods, resulting in a distinct set of novel physical phenomena. For late-time cosmology, the variation of c along the trajectory of light waves from distant supernovae towards the Earth-based observer necessitates modifications to the Lema\^itre redshift relation and the Hubble law. These modifications are capable of: (1) Accounting for the Pantheon Catalog of SNeIa through a declining speed of light in an expanding Einstein--de Sitter universe, thus avoiding the need for dark energy; (2) Revitalizing Blanchard-Douspis-Rowan-Robinson-Sarkar's CMB power spectrum analysis that bypassed dark energy [A&A 412, 35 (2003)]; and (3) Resolving the H_0 tension without requiring a dynamical dark energy component.

A sudden transition from an early matter-dominated era to a radiation-dominated era provides a representative mechanism for enhancing induced gravitational waves (GWs). In the primordial black hole (PBH) evaporation scenario, discrete PBH number-density fluctuations naturally generate Poisson isocurvature perturbations. By evaluating the GWs induced by these perturbations through the sudden evaporation transition, we show how the full hierarchy of intrinsic non-Gaussian statistics of a Poisson isocurvature source enters the induced GW spectra. We find that the tensor power spectrum retains only the two-point correlations of the scalar source, while higher-order correlations first appear in the tensor bispectrum. We also find a nontrivial scale dependence in the relative amplitudes of different bispectrum configurations, which may provide additional information for distinguishing the discrete PBH scenario from other induced-GW mechanisms.

Cosmological first-order phase transitions can generate curvature perturbations through inhomogeneous quantum tunneling, as studied previously on superhorizon scales. In this work, we for the first time conduct three-dimensional lattice simulations that incorporate scalar metric perturbations and radiation perturbations, covering a range from bubble wall scales to super-horizon scales. We obtain the precise scalar perturbation power spectrum and the probability density function of energy density perturbations. Furthermore, we simulate the gravitational-wave energy spectra generated by each source during the first-order phase transition, including the scalar field itself, scalar metric perturbations, and the energy density and velocity perturbations of radiation. For gravitational waves, the contribution from other sources can exceed 1/3 of that from the scalar field at superhorizon scales. Additionally, we compare the effects of different values of the transition strength and rate on the results. This paper provides more accurate numerical results for research aimed at detecting or constraining first-order phase transitions via gravitational waves and curvature perturbations.

We demonstrate that an axion field can develop perturbations peaked at an intermediate wavenumber through its inflationary dynamics. We compute the resultant spectrum of gravitational waves (GWs) and primordial black holes (PBHs) generated through the curvaton mechanism. The GW spectrum exhibits a triangular shape, with UV and IR slopes determined by the axion's inflationary evolution and treatable as free parameters. In computing the PBH abundance, we properly account for the nonlinear relation between curvature and density perturbations and the primordial non-Gaussianity generated by the curvaton. The PBHs can account for all of dark matter, accompanied by blue-tilted isocurvature perturbations at small scales. The IR slope of the GW spectrum is anti-correlated with the magnitude of the dark matter isocurvature perturbations, offering a multi-messenger test of the model.

We discuss relevant scalar deformations of a holographic theory with a compact boundary. An example of such a theory would be the global AdS_4 with its spatially compact boundary S^2. To introduce a relevant deformation, we choose to turn on a time-independent and spatially homogeneous non-normalizable scalar operator with m^2 = -2. The finite size of a compact boundary cuts down the RG flow at a finite length scale leading to an incomplete RG flow to IR. We discuss a version of {\it incomplete} C-theorem and an {\it incomplete} attractor like mechanism. We discuss the implication of our results for entanglement entropy and geometric quantities like scalar curvature, volume and mass scale of fundamental excitation of the how these quantities increase or decrease (often monotonically) with the strength of the deformation. Thermal physics of a holographic theory defined on a compact boundary is more interesting than its non-compact counterpart. It is well known that with a compact boundary, there is a possibility of a first order Hawking-Page transition dual to a de-confinement phase transition. From a gravity perspective, a relevant deformation dumps negative energy inside the bulk, increasing the effective cosmological constant (Lambda) of the AdS. Dumping more negative energy in the bulk would make the HP transition harder and the corresponding HP transition temperature would increase. However, we have found the size of the BH at the transition temperature decreases.

The dynamical realisation of the equation of state p +rho =0 is studied. A non-pathological dynamics for the perturbations of such a system mimicking a dynamical cosmological constant (DCC) requires to go beyond the perfect fluid paradigm. It is shown that an anisotropic stress must be always present. The Hamiltonian of the system in isolation resembles the one of a Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillator and linear stability requires that it cannot be positive definite. The dynamics of linear cosmological perturbations in a DCC dominated Universe is studied in detail showing that when DCC is minimally coupled to gravity no dramatic instability is present. In contrast to what happens in a cosmological constant dominated Universe, the non-relativistic matter contrast is no longer constant and exhibits an oscillator behaviour at small scales while it grows weakly at large scales. In the gravitational waves sector, at small scales, the amplitude is still suppressed as the inverse power of the scale factor while it grows logarithmically at large scales. Also the vector modes propagate, though no growing mode is found.

A major goal of ongoing and future cosmological surveys of the large-scale structure is to measure local type primordial non-Gaussianity in the galaxy power spectrum through the scale-dependent bias. General relativistic effects have been shown to be degenerate with this measurement, therefore requiring a non-Newtonian approach. In this work, we develop a consistent framework to compute integrated effects, including lensing convergence, time delay, and integrated Sachs--Wolfe, along with the local relativistic projection and wide-separation corrections in the multipoles of the power spectrum. We show that, for a Euclid-like Hα-line galaxy survey and a MegaMapper-like Lyman-break galaxy survey, ignoring these effects leads to a bias on the best fit measurement of the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity, f_{rm NL}, of around 3,σ and 20 , σ respectively. When we include these corrections, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the luminosity function leads to further uncertainty in our measurement of f_{rm NL}. In this work, we show that this degeneracy can be partly mitigated by using a bright-faint multi-tracer analysis, where the observed galaxy sample is subdivided into two separate populations based on luminosity, which provides a 15--20% improvement on the forecasted constraints of local type f_{rm NL}. In addition, we present a novel calculation of the full multi-tracer covariance with the inclusion of wide-separation corrections~-- all of these results are implemented in the Python code CosmoWAP.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

We develop a novel way to probe subgalactic-scale matter distribution with diffractive lensing on gravitational waves. Five-year observations from Einstein Telescope and DECIGO are expected to probe k= 10^5sim 10^8 ,{rm Mpc}^{-1} down to P(k) = 10^{-16} sim 10^{-14} ,{rm Mpc}^3 level. These results can be interpreted in terms of primordial black holes in the range M_{rm PBH} gtrsim 10^{-3}M_odot down to f_{rm PBH} = 10^{-6} level, or QCD axion minihalos in the range m_a = 10^{-3} sim 10^{-12} ,{rm eV}. A key result of the paper is the approximate relation between the scale k and the gravitational wave frequency f, derived in an ensemble of `multi-lensing' events. This relation enables direct measurement of the power spectrum at specific scales, with sensitivities characterized by model-independent kernels delta P(k). Additionally, we delineate the statistical properties of `multi-lensing' based on the `Fresnel number' N_F. When N_F cal O(1), the statistical significance can be approximately calculated by Variance of lensing effects, which is directly related to the power spectrum among other moments of matter distribution.

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering datasets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue into the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the nonlinear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira-Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. The suite covers the standard six cosmological parameters {omega_m,omega_b, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state, {omega_{nu}, w_a}. In this paper we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1Gpc)^3 volume and evolving 3200^3 particles. An additional set of 1776 lower-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly nonlinear regimes. The emulator provides predictions at the two to three percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

We study the transverse-field axial next-nearest-neighbor Ising (ANNNI) model on the square lattice and on a bilayer. At the classical multiphase point κ=J_2/J_0=1/2, every configuration of straight domain walls that separates domains of at least two sites is a ground state. The walls are rigid, so perturbation theory in the transverse field g=Γ/J_0 can be carried out for each configuration separately, and we take it to order g^8. Quantum fluctuations select langle 3rangle (uparrowuparrowuparrowdownarrowdownarrowdownarrow) at order g^2, because spins next to a wall gain the most energy from virtual flips. The structures langle 23rangle, langle 223rangle and langle 2223rangle then open between langle 3rangle and the antiphase langle 2rangle at orders g^4, g^6 and g^8, in the order of the Fisher-Selke sequence of the classical three-dimensional model. A second layer suppresses each successive phase more strongly, beyond the stiffening of the local fields. We test the two widest phases with stochastic series expansion quantum Monte Carlo, comparing the free energies of the competing ordered states by thermodynamic integration, since annealing freezes in the modulation that forms at the ordering transition. The simulations reproduce the langle 3rangle wedge to about 1%, and in a pre-registered test langle 23rangle is stable at six of seven points, with the seventh resolved by post-hoc runs.

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

A major outstanding challenge in cosmology is the persistent discrepancy between the Hubble constant obtained from early and late universe measurements -- the Hubble tension. Examining cosmological evolution through the lens of information growth within a black hole we show the appearence of two fractal growing processes characterizing the early and late ages. These fractals induce space growth rates of 62.79pm5.59 km/s/Mpc and 70.07pm0.09 km/s/Mpc; close to the current values of the Hubble constants involved in the tension. These results strongly suggest that the Hubble tension is not given by unexpected large-scale structures or multiple, unrelated errors but by innate properties underlying the universe dynamics.

The mean Hawking flux does not determine how quantum stress fluctuations perturb a black-hole geometry. That information resides in field correlations, including vacuum contributions absent from the outgoing luminosity. Here we connect the complete exterior Unruh Wightman function to a finite-band stochastic reconstruction of Schwarzschild geometry. We retain the incoming vacuum and both outgoing frequency branches, form the connected stress covariance before angular projection, and propagate its monopole through a density-driven radial response. A shared Gaussian reconstruction then resolves how the value and derivative of the lapse control different geometric observables. For the specified covariance and noise amplitude, 2,200 realizations give relative widths of 0.0185 for the local horizon radius and 0.0483 for the surface-gravity temperature parameter, consistently across histograms and reconstruction checks. Covariance derivatives explain this unequal sensitivity. The construction separates the quantum-state input from the gravitational closure and spatial sampling assumptions, providing a reproducible finite-resolution description of how Hawking-field correlations affect horizon positions and surface-gravity statistics.

Primordial Magnetic Fields (PMFs) -- magnetic fields originating in the early Universe and permeating the cosmological scales today -- can explain the observed microGauss-level magnetisation of galaxies and their clusters. In light of current and upcoming all-sky radio surveys, PMFs have drawn attention not only as major candidates for explaining the large-scale magnetisation of the Universe, but also as potential probes of early-Universe physics. In this paper, using cosmological simulations coupled with light-cone analysis, we study for the first time the imprints of the PMF structure on the mean rotation measure (RM) originating in the intergalactic medium (IGM), langle RM_{IGM}rangle. We introduce a new method for producing full-sky RM_{IGM} distributions and analyse the autocorrelation of RM_{IGM} on small and large angular scales; we find that PMF structures indeed show distinct signatures. The large-scale uniform model (characterised by an initially unlimited coherence scale) leads to correlations up to 90 degrees, while correlations for small-scale stochastic PMF models drop by factor of 100 at 0.17, 0.13 and 0.11 degrees angular scales, corresponding to 5.24, 4.03 and 3.52 Mpc scales (at z=2 redshift) for magnetic fields with comoving 3.49, 1.81, 1.00 Mpc/h coherence scales, respectively; the correlation amplitude of the PMF model with comoving sim 19 Mpc/h coherence scale drops only by factor of 10 at 1 degree (30.6 Mpc). These results suggests that improvements in the modelling of Galactic RM will be necessary to investigate the signature of large-scale correlated PMFs. A comparison of langle RM_{IGM}rangle redshift dependence obtained from our simulations with that from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey shows agreement with our previous upper limits' estimates on the PMF strength derived from RM-rms analysis.

The all-sky 408 MHz map of Haslam et al. is one the most important total-power radio surveys. It has been widely used to study diffuse synchrotron radiation from our Galaxy and as a template to remove foregrounds in cosmic microwave background data. However, there are a number of issues associated with it that must be dealt with, including large-scale striations and contamination from extragalactic radio sources. We have re-evaluated and re-processed the rawest data available to produce a new and improved 408 MHz all-sky map. We first quantify the positional accuracy (approx 7 arcmin) and effective beam (56.0pm1.0 arcmin) of the four individual surveys from which it was assembled. Large-scale striations associated with 1/f noise in the scan direction are reduced to a level ll 1 K using a Fourier-based filtering technique. The most important improvement results from the removal of extragalactic sources. We have used an iterative combination of two techniques -- two-dimensional Gaussian fitting and minimum curvature spline surface inpainting -- to remove the brightest sources (gtrsim 2 Jy), which provides a significant improvement over previous versions of the map. We quantify the impact with power spectra and a template fitting analysis of foregrounds to the WMAP data. The new map is publicly available and is recommended as the template of choice for large-scale diffuse Galactic synchrotron emission. We also provide a higher resolution map with small-scale fluctuations added, assuming a power-law angular power spectrum down to the pixel scale (1.7 arcmin). This should prove useful in simulations used for studying the feasibility of detecting HI fluctuations from the Epoch of Reionization.

Markets and policymakers around the world hang on the consequential monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Publicly available textual documentation of their meetings provides insight into members' attitudes about the economy. We use GPT-4 to quantify dissent among members on the topic of inflation. We find that transcripts and minutes reflect the diversity of member views about the macroeconomic outlook in a way that is lost or omitted from the public statements. In fact, diverging opinions that shed light upon the committee's "true" attitudes are almost entirely omitted from the final statements. Hence, we argue that forecasting FOMC sentiment based solely on statements will not sufficiently reflect dissent among the hawks and doves.

Ultralight dark matter is an interesting dark matter candidate describing the lightest end of the mass parameter space. This model produces an oscillating granular pattern in halo densities. These fluctuations have the potential to produce a time-varying density along the line of sight creating a small lensing signal for any stars observed through a dark matter halo which oscillates on the de Broglie timescale. In this work, we study this stochastic lensing signal taking into account the impact of density granules as well as the central soliton. We calculate the amplitude and temporal properties of this signal and estimate how stellar observations may be used to constrain the ultralight dark matter mass and abundance.

The decay of metastable 'false vacuum' states via bubble nucleation plays a crucial role in many cosmological scenarios. Cold-atom analog experiments will soon provide the first empirical probes of this process, with potentially far-reaching implications for early-Universe cosmology and high-energy physics. However, an inevitable difference between these analog systems and the early Universe is that the former have a boundary. We show, using a combination of Euclidean calculations and real-time lattice simulations, that these boundaries generically cause rapid bubble nucleation on the edge of the experiment, obscuring the bulk nucleation that is relevant for cosmology. We demonstrate that implementing a high-density 'trench' region at the boundary completely eliminates this problem, and recovers the desired cosmological behavior. Our findings are relevant for ongoing efforts to probe vacuum decay in the laboratory, providing a practical solution to a key experimental obstacle.

In the past two years, several points of view have been proposed to address the question of the generalization of the theory of free probability to random tensors with different invariances, and it is unclear at this point whether they lead to the same notions of tensorial free cumulants and freeness. One way to approach this problem, developed by Collins, Gurau and the second named author for local unitary invariant random tensors, relies on finite size quantities involving averages over the invariance group, and whose asymptotics naturally possess the properties expected for tensorial generalizations of free cumulants of arbitrary orders. At this point, this approach has only been carried out for certain distributions, and for a subset of the moments that define such theories, and a more systematic and exhaustive study is lacking. This is the program initiated in this paper: we link this approach to the one proposed by Nechita and Park; extend a number of their results as well as those of the aforementioned paper to arbitrary orders of fluctuations, thereby generalizing higher order free cumulants; push further the study of distributions with larger invariance groups; detail the link with the asymptotics of the free-energies of the tensor HCIZ and BGW integrals; and provide formulae for tensorial free cumulants of products of tensors. Another important question is that of the definition of concrete distributions whose tensorial free-cumulants take non-trivial values. We compute the tensorial free cumulants for Gaussian random tensors with non-trivial covariances, and show that they provide such examples.

We numerically investigate some properties of unbalanced St\"{u}ckelberg holographic superconductors, by considering backreaction effects of fields on the background geometry. More precisely, we study the impacts of the chemical potential mismatch and St\"{u}ckelberg mechanism on the condensation and conductivity types (electrical, spin, mixed, thermo-electric, thermo-spin and thermal conductivity). Our results show that the St\"{u}ckelberg's model parameters C_{alpha} and alpha not only have significant impacts on the phase transition, but also affect the conductivity pseudo-gap and the strength of conductivity fluctuations. Moreover, the effects of these parameters on a system will be gradually reduced as the imbalance grows. We also find that the influence of alpha on the amplitude of conductivity fluctuations depends on the magnitude of the both C_{alpha} and deltamu/mu in the electric and thermal conductivity cases. This results in that increasing alpha can damp the conductivity fluctuations of an unbalanced system in contrast to balanced ones.

We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to study the evolution of the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) and far-infrared (FIR) sizes for a statistical sample of massive (gtrsim10^{9}M_{odot}) high redshift galaxies (z in [5,10]). Galaxies are post-processed using the SKIRT radiative transfer code, to self-consistently obtain the full spectral energy distribution and surface brightness distribution. We create mock observations of the galaxies for the Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam) to study the rest-frame UV 1500 xC5 morphology. We also generate mock rest-frame FIR (50 mum) photometry and mock ALMA (158 mum) (0.01"-0.03" and approx0.3" angular resolution) observations to study the dust-continuum. We find the effect of dust on observed sizes reduces with increasing wavelength from the UV to optical (sim0.6 times the UV at 0.4mum), with no evolution in FIR sizes. Observed sizes vary within 0.4-1.2 times the intrinsic sizes at different signal to noise ratios (SNR = 5-20) across redshifts. The effect of PSF and noise makes bright structures prominent, whereas fainter regions blend with noise, leading to an underestimation (factor of 0.4-0.8) of sizes at SNR=5. At SNR=15-20, the underestimation reduces (factor of 0.6-0.9) at z=5-8 but due to PSF, at z=9-10, bright cores are dominant, resulting in an overestimation (factor of 1.0-1.2). For ALMA, low resolution sizes are effected by noise which acts as extended emission. The size evolution in UV broadly agrees with current observational samples and other simulations. This work is one of the first to analyse the panchromatic sizes of a statistically significant sample of simulated high-redshift galaxies, complementing a growing body of research highlighting the importance of conducting an equivalent comparison between observed galaxies and their simulated counterparts in the early Universe.

We study the scalar curvature of the Fisher information metric on the microscopic coupling-parameter manifold of lattice spin models at criticality. For a d-dimensional lattice with periodic boundary conditions and n = L^d sites, the Fisher manifold has m = d cdot n dimensions (one per bond), and we find |R(J_c)| sim n^{d_R} with d_R = (dν+ 2η)/(dν+ η), where ν and η are the correlation-length and anomalous-dimension critical exponents. For 2D Ising (ν= 1, η= 1/4), this predicts d_R = 10/9, confirmed by exact transfer-matrix computations (L = 6--9: d_R = 1.1115 pm 0.0002) and multi-seed MCMC through L = 24. For 3D Ising (ν= 0.630, η= 0.0363), the prediction d_R = 1.019 is consistent with MCMC on L^3 tori up to L = 10 (power-law fit: d_R = 1.040). For 2D Potts q = 3 (predicted 33/29 approx 1.138), FFT-MCMC through L = 40 shows d_eff oscillating non-monotonically around sim 1.20, consistent with O(1/(ln L)^2) logarithmic corrections. For q = 4 (predicted 22/19), effective exponents oscillate with strong logarithmic corrections. The Ricci decomposition identity R_3 = -R_1/2, R_4 = -R_2/2 holds to 5--6 digits for all models. This exponent is distinct from Ruppeiner thermodynamic curvature and reflects the collective geometry of the growing Fisher manifold. We provide falsification criteria and predictions for additional universality classes.

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5-40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of sim15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a sim3times more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique's proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m, we detect a dipole (m=1) and quadrupole (m=2) at 8-10sigma, as well as evidence for m=4 signal at up to 6sigma, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to the Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

A sample of 60,410 bona fide optical quasars with astrometric proper motions in Gaia EDR3 and spectroscopic redshifts above 0.5 in an oval 8400 square degree area of the sky is constructed. Using orthogonal Zernike functions of polar coordinates, the proper motion fields are fitted in a weighted least-squares adjustment of the entire sample and of six equal bins of sorted redshifts. The overall fit with 37 Zernike functions reveals a statistically significant pattern, which is likely to be of instrumental origin. The main feature of this pattern is a chain of peaks and dips mostly in the R.A. component with an amplitude of 25~muas yr^{-1}. This field is subtracted from each of the six analogous fits for quasars grouped by redshifts covering the range 0.5 through 7.03, with median values 0.72, 1.00, 1.25, 1.52, 1.83, 2.34. The resulting residual patterns are noisier, with formal uncertainties up to 8~muas yr^{-1} in the central part of the area. We detect a single high-confidence Zernike term for R.A. proper motion components of quasars with redshifts around 1.52 representing a general gradient of 30 muas yr^{-1} over 150degr on the sky. We do not find any small- or medium-scale systemic variations of the residual proper motion field as functions of redshift above the 2.5,sigma significance level.

Tariff threats can move household beliefs before policy is enacted, yet their rapidly changing language is difficult to study with conventional surveys. We build a multi-agent system that turns 300 households from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers into persistent large-language-model agents exposed to social-media information over several simulated months. Calibrated agents reproduce some distributional and demographic patterns in human survey data collected after the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs. Simulated experiments indicate that immediacy, rate salience, semantic progression, message complexity, narrative, and sender identity jointly shape inflation and unemployment expectations and their dispersion. Open-ended responses trace these effects to attention, ambiguity, credibility, and causal narratives. A second experiment finds that central-bank explanations can coordinate beliefs, although their effects on average expectations depend on message content. The framework supports disciplined exploration of policy communication, subject to human validation rather than as a substitute for it.

We discuss the perturbative stability of warped anti-de Sitter (WAdS_3) spaces in three-dimensional gauged supergravity. To this end, we first derive the analogue of the Breitenlohner-Freedman bound for a single scalar field on such a curved background. We then apply this analysis to the half-maximal D=3 gauged supergravity obtained from the compactification of the D=6, N=(1,1) supergravity on S^3. Families of three-dimensional configurations, uplifting to spaces of the form WAdS_3 times WS^3, are found by turning on appropriate vector and scalar fields, supporting the AdS_3 and S^3 warpings, respectively. Finally, we show that the spectra of scalar fluctuations satisfy the stability criteria for each solution.

Turn-level metrics are widely used to evaluate properties of multi-turn human-LLM conversations, from safety and sycophancy to dialogue quality. However, consecutive turns within a conversation are not statistically independent -- a fact that virtually all current evaluation pipelines fail to correct for in their statistical inference. We systematically characterize the autocorrelation structure of 66 turn-level metrics across 202 multi-turn conversations (11,639 turn pairs, 5 German-speaking users, 4 LLM platforms) and demonstrate that naive pooled analysis produces severely inflated significance estimates: 42% of associations that appear significant under standard pooled testing fail to survive cluster-robust correction. The inflation varies substantially across categories rather than scaling linearly with autocorrelation: three memoryless families (embedding velocity, directional, differential) aggregate to 14%, while the seven non-memoryless families (thermo-cycle, frame distance, lexical/structural, rolling windows, cumulative, interaction, timestamp) aggregate to 33%, with individual category rates ranging from 0% to 100% depending on per-family effect size. We present a two-stage correction framework combining Chelton (1983) effective degrees of freedom with conversation-level block bootstrap, and validate it on a pre-registered hold-out split where cluster-robust metrics replicate at 57% versus 30% for pooled-only metrics. We provide concrete design principles, a publication checklist, and open-source code for the correction pipeline. A survey of ~30 recent papers at major NLP and AI venues that compute turn-level statistics in LLM evaluations finds that only 4 address temporal dependence at all, and 26 do not correct for it.

We show how to extract from a sufficiently long time series of stationary fluctuations of chemical reactions an estimate of the entropy production. This method, which is based on recent work on fluctuation theorems, is direct, non-invasive, does not require any knowledge about the underlying dynamics, and is applicable even when only partial information is available. We apply it to simple stochastic models of chemical reactions involving a finite number of states, and for this case, we study how the estimate of dissipation is affected by the degree of coarse-graining present in the input data.

We present the first joint analysis of the power spectrum and bispectrum using the Data Release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), focusing on Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and quasars (QSOs) across a redshift range of 0.4leq zleq2.1. By combining the two- and three-point statistics, we are able to partially break the degeneracy between the logarithmic growth rate, f(z), and the amplitude of dark matter fluctuations, σ_s8(z), which cannot be measured separately in analyses that only involve the power spectrum. In comparison with the (fiducial) Planck ΛCDM cosmology we obtain f/f^fid={0.888_{-0.089}^{+0.186},0.977_{-0.220}^{+0.182},1.030_{-0.085}^{+0.368}}, σ_{s8}/σ^fid_s8={1.224_{-0.133}^{+0.091},1.071_{-0.163}^{+0.278},1.000_{-0.223}^{+0.088}} respectively for the three LRG redshift bins, corresponding to a cumulative 10.1\% constraint on f, and of 8.4\% on σ_s8, including the systematic error budget. The cumulative constraints for the ShapeFit compressed parameters from our joint power spectrum-bispectrum analysis are respectively σ_{α_iso}=0.9% (9\% improvement with respect to our power spectrum-only analysis); σ_{α_AP}=2.3% (no improvement with respect to power spectrum-only analysis, which is expected given that the bispectrum monopole has no significant anisotropic signal); σ_{fσ_s8}=5.1% (9\% improvement); σ_{m+n}=2.3% (11\% improvement). These results are fully consistent with the main DESI power spectrum analysis, demonstrating the robustness of the DESI cosmological constraints, and compatible with Planck ΛCDM cosmology.

We present cosmological results from the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), to be released in the DESI Data Release 1. DESI BAO provide robust measurements of the transverse comoving distance and Hubble rate, or their combination, relative to the sound horizon, in seven redshift bins from over 6 million extragalactic objects in the redshift range 0.1<z<4.2. DESI BAO data alone are consistent with the standard flat ΛCDM cosmological model with a matter density Ω_m=0.295pm 0.015. Paired with a BBN prior and the robustly measured acoustic angular scale from the CMB, DESI requires H_0=(68.52pm0.62) km/s/Mpc. In conjunction with CMB anisotropies from Planck and CMB lensing data from Planck and ACT, we find Ω_m=0.307pm 0.005 and H_0=(67.97pm0.38) km/s/Mpc. Extending the baseline model with a constant dark energy equation of state parameter w, DESI BAO alone require w=-0.99^{+0.15}_{-0.13}. In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrized by w_0 and w_a, combinations of DESI with CMB or with SN~Ia individually prefer w_0>-1 and w_a<0. This preference is 2.6σ for the DESI+CMB combination, and persists or grows when SN~Ia are added in, giving results discrepant with the ΛCDM model at the 2.5σ, 3.5σ or 3.9σ levels for the addition of Pantheon+, Union3, or DES-SN5YR datasets respectively. For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass sum m_ν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit sum m_ν< 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a sum m_ν>0 (sum m_ν>0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed in models beyond ΛCDM. [Abridged.]

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of SPIDER, an experiment designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. Results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance; Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the SPIDER bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques in order to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, employing a joint analysis of SPIDER and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman-Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r<0.11 and r<0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from SPIDER's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

We find candidate macroscopic gravity duals for scale-invariant but non-Lorentz invariant fixed points, which do not have particle number as a conserved quantity. We compute two-point correlation functions which exhibit novel behavior relative to their AdS counterparts, and find holographic renormalization group flows to conformal field theories. Our theories are characterized by a dynamical critical exponent z, which governs the anisotropy between spatial and temporal scaling t to lambda^z t, x to lambda x; we focus on the case with z=2. Such theories describe multicritical points in certain magnetic materials and liquid crystals, and have been shown to arise at quantum critical points in toy models of the cuprate superconductors. This work can be considered a small step towards making useful dual descriptions of such critical points.

Motivated by searches for weak primordial non-Gaussianity in the cosmic microwave background, we investigate perturbative departures from Gaussian stochastic gravitational wave background statistics using pulsar timing arrays. We consider a quadratic ansatz that shows three-point correlations at first order in the nonlinear coupling and covariance corrections at second order. We first examine the ansatz for gravitational wave helicity amplitudes. However, the timing residual bispectrum that this produces is not manifestly invariant under local polarization basis rotations for tensor and vector modes. Then, we formulate a polarization-frame-invariant phenomenological model for detector-projected amplitudes and evaluate its one-pulsar timing residual third moment with a simplified response. Our numerical benchmarks have shown that this gives a very small Gaussian-rms-normalized skewness.

The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation B mode polarization signal contains the unique signature of primordial metric perturbations produced during the inflation. The separation of the weak CMB B-mode signal from strong foreground contamination in observed maps is a complex task, and proposed new generation low noise satellite missions compete with the weak signal level of this gravitational background. In this article, for the first time, we employ a foreground model-independent internal linear combination (ILC) method to reconstruct the CMB B mode signal using simulated observations over large angular scales of the sky of 6 frequency bands of future generation CMB mission Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO). We estimate the joint CMB B mode posterior density following the interleaving Gibbs steps of B mode angular power spectrum and cleaned map samples using the ILC method. We extend and improve the earlier reported Bayesian ILC method to analyze weak CMB B mode reconstruction by introducing noise bias corrections at two stages during the ILC weight estimation. By performing 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the Bayesian ILC method, we find that our method can reconstruct the CMB signals and the joint posterior density accurately over large angular scales of the sky. We estimate Blackwell-Rao statistics of the marginal density of CMB B mode angular power spectrum and use them to estimate the joint density of scalar to tensor ratio r and a lensing power spectrum amplitude A^{lens}. Using 200 Monte Carlo simulations of the delensing approach, we find that our method can achieve an unbiased detection of the primordial gravitational wave signal r with more than 8σ significance for levels of r geqslant 0.01.

Redshift drift effect, an observational probe that indenpendent of cosmological models, presents unique applications in specific cosmological epoch. By quantifying redshift drift signal , researchers can determine the rate of the Universe's accelerated expansion and impose constraints on cosmological models and parameters. This study evaluates the precision in cosmological parameters estimation derived from this signal via HI 21cm signal, that observed by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) telescope, with spectral resolutions of 0.001 Hz and 0.002 Hz over an observational period of Delta T = 0.5 year, utilizing two established techniques: the canonical redshift drift and the differential redshift drift method. The primary objective of this project is to ascertain the rate of cosmic acceleration and establish a solid foundation for real-time cosmology. The results reveal that both the two methods impose highly precise constraints on cosmological parameters, with accuracy reaching the level of millimeter per second (mm/s) or better. However, the canonical method provides relatively less stringent compared to the differential approach. Furthermore, when solely constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m, the strategy can be adapted to the canonical method. Nonetheless, the differential method exhibits clear advantages when simultaneously constraining the matter density parameter Omega_m and the equation of state of dark energy. These findings validate SKA's capability in detecting redshift drift and refining observational cosmology and indicates the effect can offer superior diagnostic capabilities compared to other techniques, provided that appropriate observational equipment or sufficient observational time is employed.

We present a new method for measuring the E_G statistic that combines two CMB secondaries -- the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect and CMB lensing -- for the first time to probe gravity on linear scales. The E_G statistic is a discriminating tool for modified gravity theories, which leave imprints in lensing observables and peculiar velocities. Existing E_G measurements rely on redshift space distortions (RSD) to infer the velocity field. Here, we employ kSZ velocity-reconstruction instead of RSD, a complementary technique that constrains the largest-scale modes better than the galaxy survey it uses. We construct a novel V_G estimator that involves a ratio between cross-correlations of a galaxy sample with a CMB convergence map and that with a 3D kSZ-reconstructed velocity field. We forecast for current and upcoming CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Simons Observatory (SO), respectively, in combination with three spectroscopic galaxy samples from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We find cumulative detection significances in the range S/N sim 20-55, which can robustly test the scale-independent E_G prediction under general relativity (GR) at different effective redshifts of the galaxy samples (zapprox 0.73, 1.33, 1.84). In particular, the SOtimesDESI LRG measurement would be able to distinguish between GR and certain modified gravity models, including Hu-Sawicki f(R) and Chameleon theories, with high confidence. The proposed V_G estimator opens up a new avenue for stress-testing gravity and the LambdaCDM+GR model at the largest observable scales.

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

We examine whether the perturbative renormalization group (RG) regime of stochastic turbulence can be continued from small varepsilon to the physical value varepsilon_{phys}=2, corresponding to large-scale forcing. Exploiting the simplifications of the large-d limit, we calculate the correction exponent ω to five-loop order and find a simple structure suggesting a closed analytic form. This form implies that the fixed point stable near varepsilon=0 ceases to be simultaneously real and infrared stable before reaching varepsilon_{phys}=2, pointing to a possible change of infrared regime rather than a controlled perturbative RG extrapolation.

Entropic cosmology with the Rényi entropy of the apparent horizon S_R=(1/α)ln(1+αS_{BH}), where S_{BH} is the Bekenstein--Hawking entropy, is studied. By virtue of the thermodynamics-gravity correspondence a model of dark energy is investigated. The generalised Friedmann equations for the Friedmann--Lemaître--Robertson--Walker spatially flat universe with the barotropic matter fluid are obtained. We compute the dark energy density ρ_D, pressure p_D and the deceleration parameter q of the universe. At some model parameters the normalized density parameter of the matter Ω_{m0}approx 0.315 and the deceleration parameter q_0approx -0.535 for the current epoch, which are in the agreement with the Planck data, are found. Making use of the thermodynamics-gravity correspondence, we describe the late time of the universe acceleration. The entropic cosmology considered is equivalent to cosmology based on the teleparallel gravity with the definite function F(T). The Hubble parameters are in approximate agreement (within 5 percents) with the observational Hubble data for redshifts 0.07leq z leq 1.75 at the entropy parameter αapprox 0.305~GH_0^2.

An expanding bubble in AdS_5 has a dS_4 geometry; the dark bubble scenario explores whether this can be our Universe. Motivated by this, we consider new non-supersymmetric AdS_5 compactifications of M-theory and investigate their non-perturbative instabilities. We focus on a compactification on the flag manifold. In certain regions of the flux landscape, the non-supersymmetric vacua become unstable under the nucleation of M5-brane bubbles wrapping an internal two-cycle, thus realising the dark bubble scenario. The cosmological constant on the bubble can be made parametrically small by tuning the internal fluxes, making the M5-branes close to the extremality bound. The solution relates the induced cosmological constant on the brane and the typical largest length scale of the extra dimensions through R^{-1}sim Λ_4^{1/4} in 4d Planck units, allowing for extra dimensions of the order of tens of microns. We also consider various alternatives, which for various reasons are currently not as successful.

In this paper, we emphasise the recent observational findings from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 2 (DESI DR2), which provide compelling evidence for a possible deviation from the standard ΛCDM (Cold Dark Matter) cosmology, suggesting the presence of a dynamically evolving effective dark energy component. Motivated by this, we construct a theoretical framework in which a massive cosmological vector field, B^μ, couples non-minimally to the background curvature through marginal interactions, offering a controlled mechanism to realise the deviation from the ΛCDM model. A detailed analysis of the effective Equation of State (EoS) parameter w(tilde H) reveals a narrow region of parameter space consistent with current cosmological observations presented by DESI. The analysis yields a stringent upper bound for the coupling constant λ to be λ<2.98times10^{-11}, a very strong bound on mass 3.1356times10^{-66}~g leq m leq 3.3627times10^{-66}~g, and the admissible range -0.405 leq log_{10}tildeγleq -0.38 for which present-day value w_0 = w(tilde H = 1) corresponding to a deviation δ= w_0 + 1 that lies within the region 0.107 leq δleq 0.217. This interval reproduces the deviation inferred from the combined DESI, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), and Pantheon+ data, reflecting a controlled departure from the ΛCDM behaviour. In summary, the results suggest that the proposed framework of a massive vector field can account for the departure from ΛCDM behaviour highlighted by DESI in the current cosmic acceleration. Furthermore, the framework approaches the ΛCDM behaviour in late-time tgtrsim28 Gyr, establishing a direct phenomenological link between the underlying parameters and the observed dynamical nature of dark energy.

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-α forest BAO results presented in a companion paper. The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and SDSS, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat ΛCDM model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, 2.3σ tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale θ_* that is well-measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by w_0 and w_a, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with w_0>-1 and w_a<0. This solution is preferred over ΛCDM at 3.1σ for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over ΛCDM ranges from 2.8-4.2σ depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding sum m_ν<0.064 eV assuming ΛCDM and sum m_ν<0.16 eV in the w_0w_a model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that ΛCDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

We present the results of a systematic search for candidate quiescent galaxies in the distant Universe in eleven JWST fields with publicly available observations collected during the first three months of operations and covering an effective sky area of sim145 arcmin^2. We homogeneously reduce the new JWST data and combine them with existing observations from the Hubble,Space,Telescope. We select a robust sample of sim80 candidate quiescent and quenching galaxies at 3 < z < 5 using two methods: (1) based on their rest-frame UVJ colors, and (2) a novel quantitative approach based on Gaussian Mixture Modeling of the NUV-U, U-V, and V-J rest-frame color space, which is more sensitive to recently quenched objects. We measure comoving number densities of massive (M_stargeq 10^{10.6} M_odot) quiescent galaxies consistent with previous estimates relying on ground-based observations, after homogenizing the results in the literature with our mass and redshift intervals. However, we find significant field-to-field variations of the number densities up to a factor of 2-3, highlighting the effect of cosmic variance and suggesting the presence of overdensities of red quiescent galaxies at z>3, as it could be expected for highly clustered massive systems. Importantly, JWST enables the robust identification of quenching/quiescent galaxy candidates at lower masses and higher redshifts than before, challenging standard formation scenarios. All data products, including the literature compilation, are made publicly available.

We overview the history of primordial black hole (PBH) research from the first papers around 50 years ago to the present epoch. The history may be divided into four periods, the dividing lines being marked by three key developments: inflation on the theoretical front and the detection of microlensing events by the MACHO project and gravitational waves by the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA project on the observation front. However, they are also characterised by somewhat different focuses of research. The period 1967-1980 covered the groundbreaking work on PBH formation and evaporation. The period 1980-1996 mainly focussed on their formation, while the period 1996-2016 consolidated the work on formation but also collated the constraints on the PBH abundance. In the period 2016-2024 there was a shift of emphasis to the search for evidence for PBHs and - while opinions about the strength of the purported evidence vary - this has motivated more careful studies of some aspects of the subject. Certainly the soaring number of papers on PBHs in this last period indicates a growing interest in the topic.

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95% upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude A of the background of A<3.0times 10^{-15} at a reference frequency of 1yr^{-1} and a spectral index of 13/3, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to Omega_gw(f)h^2 < 1.1times10^{-9} at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of sim 5times10^{-9}~Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95% upper limits on the string tension, Gmu/c^2, characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit Gmu/c^2<1.3times10^{-7}, identical to that set by the {\it Planck} Collaboration, when combining {\it Planck} and high-ell Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of Omega^relic_gw(f)h^2<1.2 times10^{-9}, a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array.

Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financial datasets from these regions. We investigate the use of synthetic outliers, a largely unexplored approach, to improve model stability against unforeseen shocks. To evaluate effectiveness, we introduce a two-level framework that measures both the extent of performance degradation and the severity of shocks. Our experiments on macroeconomic tabular datasets show that adding a small proportion of synthetic outliers generally improves stability compared to baseline models, though the optimal amount varies by dataset and model

The main aim of this work is to use a model-independent approach, along with late-time observational probes, to reconstruct the dark energy (DE) equation of state w_{rm DE}(z). Our analysis showed that, for a late time universe, w_{rm DE} deviates from being a constant but in contrast exhibits an oscillatory behavior, hence both quintessence (w_{rm DE}> -1) and phantom (w_{rm DE} < -1) regimes are equally allowed. In order to portray this oscillatory behavior, we explored various parametrizations for the equation of state and identified the closest approximation based on the goodness of fit with the data and the Bayesian evidence analysis. Our findings indicated that while all considered oscillating DE parametrizations provided a better fit to the data, compared to the cosmological constant, they are penalized in the Bayesian evidence analysis due to the additional free parameters. Overall, the present article demonstrates that in the low redshift regime, the equation of state of the DE prefers to be dynamical and oscillating. We anticipate that future cosmological probes will take a stand in this direction.

This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spread expressed over the nominalrate-indexed risk-free curve plus the model-implied breakeven inflation forward at the same maturity. The identity holds within any single calibration of the framework. It is empirically falsifiable across two parallel corporate-bond segments of the same market, in a segmented market the two segments may price different corporate credit economies, and the gap between their implied corporate forwards measures the failure of the shared-credit-economy assumption. Applied to Brazilian debenture markets, the framework delivers a sharp empirical finding. Fifteen large issuers placed paper in both the CDI-indexed general-purpose segment and the IPCA-indexed infrastructure segment between January 2021 and February 2026. The within-issuer triangle residual at the 3-year tenor averages 640 basis points, with crosssectional standard deviation of 26 basis points across the 15 issuer means, and remains stable through both the 2021-2023 BCB tightening cycle and the 2024-2026 easing phase. A retail post-tax indifference benchmark anchored on Lei 12.431 closes the bulk of the residual. The remainder is consistent with institutional participation on the CDI side, contractual asymmetries between debentures with different use-of-proceeds restrictions, and segment-specific liquidity gaps.

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515-4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, α. We observed HE 0515-4414 for 16.1,h with the Very Large Telescope and present here the first constraint on relative variations in α with parts-per-million (ppm) precision from the new ESPRESSO spectrograph: Δα/α= 1.3 pm 1.3_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},{rm ppm}. The statistical uncertainty (1σ) is similar to the ensemble precision of previous large samples of absorbers, and derives from the high S/N achieved (approx105 per 0.4,km,s^{-1} pixel). ESPRESSO's design, and calibration of our observations with its laser frequency comb, effectively removed wavelength calibration errors from our measurement. The high resolving power of our ESPRESSO spectrum (R=145000) enabled the identification of very narrow components within the absorption profile, allowing a more robust analysis of Δα/α. The evidence for the narrow components is corroborated by their correspondence with previously detected molecular hydrogen and neutral carbon. The main remaining systematic errors arise from ambiguities in the absorption profile modelling, effects from redispersing the individual quasar exposures, and convergence of the parameter estimation algorithm. All analyses of the spectrum, including systematic error estimates, were initially blinded to avoid human biases. We make our reduced ESPRESSO spectrum of HE 0515-4414 publicly available for further analysis. Combining our ESPRESSO result with 28 measurements, from other spectrographs, in which wavelength calibration errors have been mitigated, yields a weighted mean Δα/α= -0.5 pm 0.5_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},ppm at redshifts 0.6-2.4.

We present a new, cosmologically model-independent, statistical analysis of the Pantheon+ type Ia supernovae spectroscopic dataset, improving a standard methodology adopted by Lane et al. We use the Tripp equation for supernova standardisation alone, thereby avoiding any potential correlation in the stretch and colour distributions. We compare the standard homogeneous cosmological model, i.e., ΛCDM, and the timescape cosmology which invokes backreaction of inhomogeneities. Timescape, while statistically homogeneous and isotropic, departs from average Friedmann-Lema\^ıtre-Robertson-Walker evolution, and replaces dark energy by kinetic gravitational energy and its gradients, in explaining independent cosmological observations. When considering the entire Pantheon+ sample, we find very strong evidence (ln B> 5) in favour of timescape over ΛCDM. Furthermore, even restricting the sample to redshifts beyond any conventional scale of statistical homogeneity, z > 0.075, timescape is preferred over ΛCDM with ln B> 1. These results provide evidence for a need to revisit the foundations of theoretical and observational cosmology.

We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential decision-making problem where the central bank observes macroeconomic conditions quarterly and chooses interest rate adjustments. Using publically accessible historical Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), we construct a linear-Gaussian transition model and implement a discrete-action Markov Decision Process with a quadratic loss reward function. We chose to compare nine different reinforcement learning style approaches against Taylor Rule and naive baselines, including tabular Q-learning variants, SARSA, Actor-Critic, Deep Q-Networks, Bayesian Q-learning with uncertainty quantification, and POMDP formulations with partial observability. Surprisingly, standard tabular Q-learning achieved the best performance (-615.13 +- 309.58 mean return), outperforming both enhanced RL methods and traditional policy rules. Our results suggest that while sophisticated RL techniques show promise for monetary policy applications, simpler approaches may be more robust in this domain, highlighting important challenges in applying modern RL to macroeconomic policy.

Asymptotic Safety provides a promising framework for the quantization of Scalar-Tensor theories as non-perturbatively renormalizable quantum field theories. Over the past years, growing evidence has accumulated for the existence of non-trivial renormalization group fixed points in a variety of Scalar-Tensor models. In this work, we investigate the robustness of these fixed points under significant modifications of the computational setup. In particular, we employ a gauge condition that explicitly depends on the dynamical scalar field, going beyond a mere gauge-parameter deformation of the standard linear covariant gauges commonly used in the literature. Exploring different field parameterizations, we identify fixed points belonging to the Gaussian Matter class in four spacetime dimensions that are consistent with previous studies. The real part of the critical exponents associated with the scalar-field mass and the non-minimal scalar-curvature coupling turn out to have very small absolute value. We provide a comprehensive exploration of how the anomalous dimension of the scalar field and field parameterization impact those critical exponents showing that fixed-point candidates with two or four relevant directions emerge.

We study the chemical distance of supercritical Bernoulli percolation on Z^d. Recently, Dembin [Dem22] showed that the chemical distance exhibits sublinear variance, a phenomenon now referred to as superconcentration. In this article, we establish an equivalence between this phenomenon and chaotic behavior of geodesics under small perturbations of the configuration, thereby confirming Chatterjee's general principle relating anomalous fluctuations to chaos in the context of Bernoulli percolation. Our methods rely on a dynamical version of the effective radius, refining the notion first proposed in [CN25], in order to measure the co-influence of a given edge whose weight may be infinite. Together with techniques from the theory of lattice animals, this approach allows us to quantify the total co-influence of edges in terms of the overlap between original and perturbed geodesics.