Daily Papers

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

Humanoid table tennis (TT) demands rapid perception, proactive whole-body motion, and agile footwork under strict timing--capabilities that remain difficult for end-to-end control policies. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that maps ball-position observations directly to whole-body joint commands for both arm striking and leg locomotion, strengthened by predictive signals and dense, physics-guided rewards. A lightweight learned predictor, fed with recent ball positions, estimates future ball states and augments the policy's observations for proactive decision-making. During training, a physics-based predictor supplies precise future states to construct dense, informative rewards that lead to effective exploration. The resulting policy attains strong performance across varied serve ranges (hit rategeq96% and success rategeq92%) in simulations. Ablation studies confirm that both the learned predictor and the predictive reward design are critical for end-to-end learning. Deployed zero-shot on a physical Booster T1 humanoid with 23 revolute joints, the policy produces coordinated lateral and forward-backward footwork with accurate, fast returns, suggesting a practical path toward versatile, competitive humanoid TT. We have open-sourced our RL training code at: https://github.com/purdue-tracelab/TTRL-ICRA2026

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

We study the conditions under which the convex relaxation of a mixed-integer linear programming formulation for ordered optimization problems, where sorting is part of the decision process, yields integral optimal solutions. Thereby solving the problem exactly in polynomial time. Our analysis identifies structural properties of the input data that influence the integrality of the relaxation. We show that incorporating ordered components introduces additional layers of combinatorial complexity that invalidate the exactness observed in classical (non-ordered) settings. In particular, for certain ordered problems such as the min--max case, the linear relaxation never recovers the integral solution. These results clarify the intrinsic hardness introduced by sorting and reveal that the strength of the relaxation depends critically on the ``proximity'' of the ordered problem to its classical counterpart: problems closer to the non-ordered case tend to admit tighter relaxations, while those further away exhibit substantially weaker behavior. Computational experiments on benchmark instances confirm the predictive value of the integrality conditions and demonstrate the practical implications of exact relaxations for ordered location problems.

To ensure the responsible distribution and use of open-source deep neural networks (DNNs), DNN watermarking has become a crucial technique to trace and verify unauthorized model replication or misuse. In practice, black-box watermarks manifest as specific predictive behaviors for specially crafted samples. However, due to the generalization nature of DNNs, the keys to extracting the watermark message are not unique, which would provide attackers with more opportunities. Advanced attack techniques can reverse-engineer approximate replacements for the original watermark keys, enabling subsequent watermark removal. In this paper, we explore black-box DNN watermarking specificity, which refers to the accuracy of a watermark's response to a key. Using this concept, we introduce Specificity-Enhanced Watermarking (SEW), a new method that improves specificity by reducing the association between the watermark and approximate keys. Through extensive evaluation using three popular watermarking benchmarks, we validate that enhancing specificity significantly contributes to strengthening robustness against removal attacks. SEW effectively defends against six state-of-the-art removal attacks, while maintaining model usability and watermark verification performance.

The emerging integration of robots into everyday life brings several major challenges. Compared to classical industrial applications, more flexibility is needed in combination with real-time reactivity. Learning-based methods can train powerful policies based on demonstrated trajectories, such that the robot generalizes a task to similar situations. However, these black-box models lack interpretability and rigorous safety guarantees. Optimization-based methods provide these guarantees but lack the required flexibility and generalization capabilities. This work proposes SafeFlowMPC, a combination of flow matching and online optimization to combine the strengths of learning and optimization. This method guarantees safety at all times and is designed to meet the demands of real-time execution by using a suboptimal model-predictive control formulation. SafeFlowMPC achieves strong performance in three real-world experiments on a KUKA 7-DoF manipulator, namely two grasping experiment and a dynamic human-robot object handover experiment. A video of the experiments is available at http://www.acin.tuwien.ac.at/42d6. The code is available at https://github.com/TU-Wien-ACIN-CDS/SafeFlowMPC.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has been demonstrated to be effective in continuous control tasks. When a world model and a value function are available, planning a sequence of actions ahead of time leads to a better policy. Existing methods typically obtain the value function and the corresponding policy in a model-free manner. However, we find that such an approach struggles with complex tasks, resulting in poor policy learning and inaccurate value estimation. To address this problem, we leverage the strengths of MPC itself. In this work, we introduce Bootstrapped Model Predictive Control (BMPC), a novel algorithm that performs policy learning in a bootstrapped manner. BMPC learns a network policy by imitating an MPC expert, and in turn, uses this policy to guide the MPC process. Combined with model-based TD-learning, our policy learning yields better value estimation and further boosts the efficiency of MPC. We also introduce a lazy reanalyze mechanism, which enables computationally efficient imitation learning. Our method achieves superior performance over prior works on diverse continuous control tasks. In particular, on challenging high-dimensional locomotion tasks, BMPC significantly improves data efficiency while also enhancing asymptotic performance and training stability, with comparable training time and smaller network sizes. Code is available at https://github.com/wertyuilife2/bmpc.

Modern Text-to-Image (T2I) generation increasingly relies on token-centric architectures that are trained with self-supervision, yet effectively fusing text with visual tokens remains a challenge. We propose JEPA-T, a unified multimodal framework that encodes images and captions into discrete visual and textual tokens, processed by a joint-embedding predictive Transformer. To enhance fusion, we incorporate cross-attention after the feature predictor for conditional denoising while maintaining a task-agnostic backbone. Additionally, raw texts embeddings are injected prior to the flow matching loss to improve alignment during training. During inference, the same network performs both class-conditional and free-text image generation by iteratively denoising visual tokens conditioned on text. Evaluations on ImageNet-1K demonstrate that JEPA-T achieves strong data efficiency, open-vocabulary generalization, and consistently outperforms non-fusion and late-fusion baselines. Our approach shows that late architectural fusion combined with objective-level alignment offers an effective balance between conditioning strength and backbone generality in token-based T2I.The code is now available: https://github.com/justin-herry/JEPA-T.git

Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is both costly to plan over long horizons and challenging to obtain an accurate model of the environment. In this work, we combine the strengths of model-free and model-based methods. We use a learned task-oriented latent dynamics model for local trajectory optimization over a short horizon, and use a learned terminal value function to estimate long-term return, both of which are learned jointly by temporal difference learning. Our method, TD-MPC, achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance over prior work on both state and image-based continuous control tasks from DMControl and Meta-World. Code and video results are available at https://nicklashansen.github.io/td-mpc.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) serve as the standard mathematical framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences in continuous time. However, classical TPP models are often constrained by strong assumptions, limiting their ability to capture complex real-world event dynamics. To overcome this limitation, researchers have proposed Neural TPPs, which leverage neural network parametrizations to offer more flexible and efficient modeling. While recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Neural TPPs, they often lack a unified setup, relying on different baselines, datasets, and experimental configurations. This makes it challenging to identify the key factors driving improvements in predictive accuracy, hindering research progress. To bridge this gap, we present a comprehensive large-scale experimental study that systematically evaluates the predictive accuracy of state-of-the-art neural TPP models. Our study encompasses multiple real-world and synthetic event sequence datasets, following a carefully designed unified setup. We thoroughly investigate the influence of major architectural components such as event encoding, history encoder, and decoder parametrization on both time and mark prediction tasks. Additionally, we delve into the less explored area of probabilistic calibration for neural TPP models. By analyzing our results, we draw insightful conclusions regarding the significance of history size and the impact of architectural components on predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we shed light on the miscalibration of mark distributions in neural TPP models. Our study aims to provide valuable insights into the performance and characteristics of neural TPP models, contributing to a better understanding of their strengths and limitations.

Access to external knowledge is essential for many natural language processing tasks, such as question answering and dialogue. Existing methods often rely on a parametric model that stores knowledge in its parameters, or use a retrieval-augmented model that has access to an external knowledge source. Parametric and retrieval-augmented models have complementary strengths in terms of computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. To combine the strength of both approaches, we propose the Efficient Memory-Augmented Transformer (EMAT) -- it encodes external knowledge into a key-value memory and exploits the fast maximum inner product search for memory querying. We also introduce pre-training tasks that allow EMAT to encode informative key-value representations, and to learn an implicit strategy to integrate multiple memory slots into the transformer. Experiments on various knowledge-intensive tasks such as question answering and dialogue datasets show that, simply augmenting parametric models (T5-base) using our method produces more accurate results (e.g., 25.8 -> 44.3 EM on NQ) while retaining a high throughput (e.g., 1000 queries/s on NQ). Compared to retrieval-augmented models, EMAT runs substantially faster across the board and produces more accurate results on WoW and ELI5. Our code and datasets are available at https://github. com/uclnlp/EMAT.

Saliency maps are increasingly used as design guidance in siRNA efficacy prediction, yet attribution methods are rarely validated before motivating sequence edits. We introduce a pre-synthesis gate: a protocol for counterfactual sensitivity faithfulness that tests whether mutating high-saliency positions changes model output more than composition-matched controls. Cross-dataset transfer reveals two failure modes that would otherwise go undetected: faithful-but-wrong (saliency valid, predictions fail) and inverted saliency (top-saliency edits less impactful than random). Strikingly, models trained on mRNA-level assays collapse on a luciferase reporter dataset, demonstrating that protocol shifts can silently invalidate deployment. Across four benchmarks, 19/20 fold instances pass; the single failure shows inverted saliency. A biology-informed regularizer (BioPrior) strengthens saliency faithfulness with modest, dataset-dependent predictive trade-offs. Our results establish saliency validation as essential pre-deployment practice for explanation-guided therapeutic design. Code is available at https://github.com/shadi97kh/BioPrior.

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) predicts perceptual quality scores consistent with human judgments. Recent RL-based IQA methods built on MLLMs focus on generating visual quality descriptions and scores, ignoring two key reliability limitations: (i) although the model's prediction stability varies significantly across training samples, existing GRPO-based methods apply uniform advantage weighting, thereby amplifying noisy signals from unstable samples in gradient updates; (ii) most works emphasize text-grounded reasoning over images while overlooking the model's visual perception ability of image content. In this paper, we propose Q-Hawkeye, an RL-based reliable visual policy optimization framework that redesigns the learning signal through unified Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Optimization and Perception-Aware Optimization. Q-Hawkeye estimates predictive uncertainty using the variance of predicted scores across multiple rollouts and leverages this uncertainty to reweight each sample's update strength, stabilizing policy optimization. To strengthen perceptual reliability, we construct paired inputs of degraded images and their original images and introduce an Implicit Perception Loss that constrains the model to ground its quality judgments in genuine visual evidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Q-Hawkeye outperforms state-of-the-art methods and generalizes better across multiple datasets. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/Q-Hawkeye.

Recent advances in vision-language foundational models, such as CLIP, have demonstrated significant strides in zero-shot classification. However, the extensive parameterization of models like CLIP necessitates a resource-intensive fine-tuning process. In response, TIP-Adapter and SuS-X have introduced training-free methods aimed at bolstering the efficacy of downstream tasks. While these approaches incorporate support sets to maintain data distribution consistency between knowledge cache and test sets, they often fall short in terms of generalization on the test set, particularly when faced with test data exhibiting substantial distributional variations. In this work, we present CapS-Adapter, an innovative method that employs a caption-based support set, effectively harnessing both image and caption features to exceed existing state-of-the-art techniques in training-free scenarios. CapS-Adapter adeptly constructs support sets that closely mirror target distributions, utilizing instance-level distribution features extracted from multimodal large models. By leveraging CLIP's single and cross-modal strengths, CapS-Adapter enhances predictive accuracy through the use of multimodal support sets. Our method achieves outstanding zero-shot classification results across 19 benchmark datasets, improving accuracy by 2.19\% over the previous leading method. Our contributions are substantiated through extensive validation on multiple benchmark datasets, demonstrating superior performance and robust generalization capabilities. Our code is made publicly available at https://github.com/WLuLi/CapS-Adapter.

Feature embeddings acquired from pretrained models are widely used in medical applications of deep learning to assess the characteristics of datasets; e.g. to determine the quality of synthetic, generated medical images. The Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) is one popular synthetic image quality metric that relies on the assumption that the characteristic features of the data can be detected and encoded by an InceptionV3 model pretrained on ImageNet1K (natural images). While it is widely known that this makes it less effective for applications involving medical images, the extent to which the metric fails to capture meaningful differences in image characteristics is not obviously known. Here, we use Monte Carlo dropout to compute the predictive variance in the FID as well as a supplemental estimate of the predictive variance in the feature embedding model's latent representations. We show that the magnitudes of the predictive variances considered exhibit varying degrees of correlation with the extent to which test inputs (ImageNet1K validation set augmented at various strengths, and other external datasets) are out-of-distribution relative to its training data, providing some insight into the effectiveness of their use as indicators of the trustworthiness of the FID.

Transformers have revolutionized performance in Natural Language Processing and Vision, paving the way for their integration with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). One key challenge in enhancing graph transformers is strengthening the discriminative power of distinguishing isomorphisms of graphs, which plays a crucial role in boosting their predictive performances. To address this challenge, we introduce 'Topology-Informed Graph Transformer (TIGT)', a novel transformer enhancing both discriminative power in detecting graph isomorphisms and the overall performance of Graph Transformers. TIGT consists of four components: A topological positional embedding layer using non-isomorphic universal covers based on cyclic subgraphs of graphs to ensure unique graph representation: A dual-path message-passing layer to explicitly encode topological characteristics throughout the encoder layers: A global attention mechanism: And a graph information layer to recalibrate channel-wise graph features for better feature representation. TIGT outperforms previous Graph Transformers in classifying synthetic dataset aimed at distinguishing isomorphism classes of graphs. Additionally, mathematical analysis and empirical evaluations highlight our model's competitive edge over state-of-the-art Graph Transformers across various benchmark datasets.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

The convergence of artificial intelligence and materials science presents a transformative opportunity, but achieving true acceleration in discovery requires moving beyond task-isolated, fine-tuned models toward agentic systems that plan, act, and learn across the full discovery loop. This survey advances a unique pipeline-centric view that spans from corpus curation and pretraining, through domain adaptation and instruction tuning, to goal-conditioned agents interfacing with simulation and experimental platforms. Unlike prior reviews, we treat the entire process as an end-to-end system to be optimized for tangible discovery outcomes rather than proxy benchmarks. This perspective allows us to trace how upstream design choices-such as data curation and training objectives-can be aligned with downstream experimental success through effective credit assignment. To bridge communities and establish a shared frame of reference, we first present an integrated lens that aligns terminology, evaluation, and workflow stages across AI and materials science. We then analyze the field through two focused lenses: From the AI perspective, the survey details LLM strengths in pattern recognition, predictive analytics, and natural language processing for literature mining, materials characterization, and property prediction; from the materials science perspective, it highlights applications in materials design, process optimization, and the acceleration of computational workflows via integration with external tools (e.g., DFT, robotic labs). Finally, we contrast passive, reactive approaches with agentic design, cataloging current contributions while motivating systems that pursue long-horizon goals with autonomy, memory, and tool use. This survey charts a practical roadmap towards autonomous, safety-aware LLM agents aimed at discovering novel and useful materials.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We examine the potential of ChatGPT and other large language models in predicting stock market returns using news headlines. We use ChatGPT to assess whether each headline is good, bad, or neutral for firms' stock prices. We document a significantly positive correlation between ChatGPT scores and subsequent daily stock returns. We find that ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. More basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex language models. Long-short strategies based on ChatGPT-4 deliver the highest Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we find predictability in both small and large stocks, suggesting market underreaction to company news. Predictability is stronger among smaller stocks and stocks with bad news, consistent with limits-to-arbitrage also playing an important role. Finally, we propose a new method to evaluate and understand the models' reasoning capabilities. Overall, our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is approx20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only approx20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from approx5% to approx80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Predictive Coding (PC) is a theoretical framework in cognitive science suggesting that the human brain processes cognition through spatiotemporal prediction of the visual world. Existing studies have developed spatiotemporal prediction neural networks based on the PC theory, emulating its two core mechanisms: Correcting predictions from residuals and hierarchical learning. However, these models do not show the enhancement of prediction skills on real-world forecasting tasks and ignore the Precision Weighting mechanism of PC theory. The precision weighting mechanism posits that the brain allocates more attention to signals with lower precision, contributing to the cognitive ability of human brains. This work introduces the Cognitive Diffusion Probabilistic Models (CogDPM), which demonstrate the connection between diffusion probabilistic models and PC theory. CogDPM features a precision estimation method based on the hierarchical sampling capabilities of diffusion models and weight the guidance with precision weights estimated by the inherent property of diffusion models. We experimentally show that the precision weights effectively estimate the data predictability. We apply CogDPM to real-world prediction tasks using the United Kindom precipitation and ERA surface wind datasets. Our results demonstrate that CogDPM outperforms both existing domain-specific operational models and general deep prediction models by providing more proficient forecasting.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Large language models excel at complex instructions yet struggle to deviate from their helpful assistant persona, as post-training instills strong priors that resist conflicting instructions. We introduce system prompt strength, a training-free method that treats prompt adherence as a continuous control. By contrasting logits from target and default system prompts, we isolate and amplify the behavioral signal unique to the target persona by a scalar factor alpha. Across five diverse benchmarks spanning constraint satisfaction, behavioral control, pluralistic alignment, capability modulation, and stylistic control, our method yields substantial improvements: up to +8.5 strict accuracy on IFEval, +45pp refusal rate on OffTopicEval, and +13% steerability on Prompt-Steering. Our approach enables practitioners to modulate system prompt strength, providing dynamic control over model behavior without retraining.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

We develop a statistical procedure to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using a date-only recall query for a firm-date pair, we estimate the probability that the LLM has internalized information about the realized outcome, a statistic we term Lookahead Propensity (LAP). LAP is materially positive throughout the in-sample period and collapses essentially to zero right after the training-data cutoff. We show that a positive interaction between LAP and the LLM forecast in an accuracy regression indicates lookahead-bias contamination, and apply the test to two forecasting tasks: news headlines predicting stock returns and earnings call transcripts predicting capital expenditures. In both applications, the LLM forecast's predictive power is amplified on high-LAP firm-date pairs, and the interaction loses significance on post-training-cutoff samples. Our test provides a cost-efficient, diagnostic tool for assessing the validity and reliability of LLM-generated forecasts.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15pm0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04pm1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents, only a small subset of the training data can be presented as an explanation. Although the choice of which documents to include directly affects explanation quality, previous evaluations of such systems have largely ignored any selection strategies. To address this, we propose a novel selection relevance score, a retraining-free metric that quantifies how useful a set of examples is for explaining a model's output. We validate this score through fine-tuning experiments, confirming that it can predict whether a set of examples supports or undermines the model's predictions. Using this metric, we further show that common selection strategies often underperform random selection. Motivated by this finding, we propose a strategy that balances influence and representativeness, enabling better use of selection budgets than naively selecting the highest-ranking examples.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

Same-model self-verification, prompting a model to audit its own predicted answer, is a plausible confidence signal for selective prediction, but its practical value remains unclear once strong likelihood-based baselines are taken seriously. We evaluate self-verification against two such baselines, LL-AVG and LL-SUM, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA-MC across multiple model families, scales, and prompt variants. We measure not only correctness ranking, but also abstention quality through AURC and operating-point analyses. The results are sharply task- and model-dependent. On ARC-Challenge, self-verification substantially improves over LL-AVG for Phi-2 and the Qwen models, with the largest gains appearing in Qwen-7B. On TruthfulQA-MC, however, the signal is less reliable: smaller models can become prompt-sensitive, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-8B degrades relative to LL-AVG, and LL-SUM often remains the stronger practical baseline. We therefore do not treat self-verification as a general-purpose uncertainty estimator. In this setting, it is better understood as a conditional confidence signal whose value depends on task type, model family, prompt formulation, and, crucially, the baseline it must beat.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy adjusted correctness correlation, ϕ_{adj}, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's ρ=0.84 and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration (ρ=0.51 on GPQA Diamond and 0.84 on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with R^2ge 0.96 throughout. Raw ϕ has almost no predictive power (R^2le 0.09 throughout); the accuracy-adjusted ϕ_{adj} is markedly superior (R^2=0.67 on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre pooling predictor across the three datasets.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Employing a machine learning approach we predict, up to 24 hours prior, a diagnosis of severe sepsis. Strongly predictive models are possible that use only text reports from the Electronic Health Record (EHR), and omit structured numerical data. Unstructured text alone gives slightly better performance than structured data alone, and the combination further improves performance. We also discuss advantages of using unstructured EHR text for modeling, as compared to structured EHR data.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Foundation Models (FMs) have improved time series forecasting in various sectors, such as finance, but their vulnerability to input disturbances can hinder their adoption by stakeholders, such as investors and analysts. To address this, we propose a causally grounded rating framework to study the robustness of Foundational Models for Time Series (FMTS) with respect to input perturbations. We evaluate our approach to the stock price prediction problem, a well-studied problem with easily accessible public data, evaluating six state-of-the-art (some multi-modal) FMTS across six prominent stocks spanning three industries. The ratings proposed by our framework effectively assess the robustness of FMTS and also offer actionable insights for model selection and deployment. Within the scope of our study, we find that (1) multi-modal FMTS exhibit better robustness and accuracy compared to their uni-modal versions and, (2) FMTS pre-trained on time series forecasting task exhibit better robustness and forecasting accuracy compared to general-purpose FMTS pre-trained across diverse settings. Further, to validate our framework's usability, we conduct a user study showcasing FMTS prediction errors along with our computed ratings. The study confirmed that our ratings reduced the difficulty for users in comparing the robustness of different systems.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

With the advent of LLMs, various tasks across the natural language processing domain have been transformed. However, their application in predictive tasks remains less researched. This study compares large language models, including GatorTron-Base (trained on clinical data), Llama 8B, and Mistral 7B, against models like BioBERT, DocBERT, BioClinicalBERT, Word2Vec, and Doc2Vec, setting benchmarks for predicting Shock in critically ill patients. Timely prediction of shock can enable early interventions, thus improving patient outcomes. Text data from 17,294 ICU stays of patients in the MIMIC III database were scored for length of stay > 24 hours and shock index (SI) > 0.7 to yield 355 and 87 patients with normal and abnormal SI-index, respectively. Both focal and cross-entropy losses were used during finetuning to address class imbalances. Our findings indicate that while GatorTron Base achieved the highest weighted recall of 80.5%, the overall performance metrics were comparable between SLMs and LLMs. This suggests that LLMs are not inherently superior to SLMs in predicting future clinical events despite their strong performance on text-based tasks. To achieve meaningful clinical outcomes, future efforts in training LLMs should prioritize developing models capable of predicting clinical trajectories rather than focusing on simpler tasks such as named entity recognition or phenotyping.

In the era of large language models, creative writing quality lacks a computable theoretical anchor. The dominant approaches are rubric scoring -- decomposing holistic aesthetic judgment into sub-scores -- and RLHF preference signals -- replacing quality with group votes. Both bypass the statistical structure of the text itself. This paper provides an information-theoretic foundation to fill this gap. We propose 'calibrated surprise' as the information-theoretic essence of excellent creative writing. This judgment matches reading intuition and covers its opposite. This literary judgment admits a precise mathematical formulation. Under full-dimensional constraints Y, feasible writing choices are forced into an extremely narrow space. The rare survivors are, from the unconstrained perspective, exactly the least predictable choices. Both are measured precisely by Shannon mutual information I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y) -- 'calibrated' corresponds to H(X|Y) approaching 0; 'surprising' corresponds to H(X) going high. The subtraction structure of the formula naturally separates 'well-grounded surprise' from 'pure noise'. We use token-level logprobs from Qwen1.5-7B as an operational proxy for the ideal reader's probability distribution. Across 20 pairs (12 Chinese / 8 English) of high-quality vs. systematically degraded literary passages, 20/20 pairs support the core prediction: high-quality passages have systematically higher I(X;Y) than their degraded versions.

The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML methods to integrate multiple data modalities and better predict clinically promising drug targets. Notably, drug targets with human genetics evidence are shown to have better odds to succeed. However, a recent tensor factorization-based approach found that additional information on targets and indications might not necessarily improve the predictive accuracy. Here we revisit this approach by integrating different types of human genetics evidence collated from publicly available sources to support each target-indication pair. We use Bayesian tensor factorization to show that models incorporating all available human genetics evidence (rare disease, gene burden, common disease) modestly improves the clinical outcome prediction over models using single line of genetics evidence. We provide additional insight into the relative predictive power of different types of human genetics evidence for predicting the success of clinical outcomes.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. We then assess CoT faithfulness through evidence ablation and diversionary injection: removing an influential source in the prompt often changes the model's forecast while leaving the reasoning trace untouched. The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturbation's influence. Finally, forced answering reveals that forecasts are largely fixed before reasoning begins: a single pre-reasoning pass recovers the committed answer and confidence, and routing questions by the spread of this pre-set answer distribution saves 30-47% of generated tokens, with no loss of accuracy. Together, these results establish probing internal representations as a practical tool for calibrating, auditing, and triaging language model forecasters and reasoning models more broadly.

Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language models-have significantly expanded the capacity for alpha discovery, systematic evaluation remains a key challenge. Existing evaluation metrics predominantly include backtesting and correlation-based measures. Backtesting is computationally intensive, inherently sequential, and sensitive to specific strategy parameters. Correlation-based metrics, though efficient, assess only predictive ability and overlook other crucial properties such as temporal stability, robustness, diversity, and interpretability. Additionally, the closed-source nature of most existing alpha mining models hinders reproducibility and slows progress in this field. To address these issues, we propose AlphaEval, a unified, parallelizable, and backtest-free evaluation framework for automated alpha mining models. AlphaEval assesses the overall quality of generated alphas along five complementary dimensions: predictive power, stability, robustness to market perturbations, financial logic, and diversity. Extensive experiments across representative alpha mining algorithms demonstrate that AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, while providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency. Furthermore, AlphaEval effectively identifies superior alphas compared to traditional single-metric screening approaches. All implementations and evaluation tools are open-sourced to promote reproducibility and community engagement.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Tabular machine learning presents a paradox: modern models achieve state-of-the-art performance using high-dimensional (high-D), collinear, error-prone data, defying the "Garbage In, Garbage Out" mantra. To help resolve this, we synthesize principles from Information Theory, Latent Factor Models, and Psychometrics, clarifying that predictive robustness arises not solely from data cleanliness, but from the synergy between data architecture and model capacity. Partitioning predictor-space "noise" into "Predictor Error" and "Structural Uncertainty" (informational deficits from stochastic generative mappings), we prove that leveraging high-D sets of error-prone predictors asymptotically overcomes both types of noise, whereas cleaning a low-D set is fundamentally bounded by Structural Uncertainty. We demonstrate why "Informative Collinearity" (dependencies from shared latent causes) enhances reliability and convergence efficiency, and explain why increased dimensionality reduces the latent inference burden, enabling feasibility with finite samples. To address practical constraints, we propose "Proactive Data-Centric AI" to identify predictors that enable robustness efficiently. We also derive boundaries for Systematic Error Regimes and show why models that absorb "rogue" dependencies can mitigate assumption violations. Linking latent architecture to Benign Overfitting, we offer a first step towards a unified view of robustness to Outcome Error and predictor-space noise, while also delineating when traditional DCAI's focus on label cleaning remains powerful. By redefining data quality from item-level perfection to portfolio-level architecture, we provide a theoretical rationale for "Local Factories" -- learning from live, uncurated enterprise "data swamps" -- supporting a deployment paradigm shift from "Model Transfer" to "Methodology Transfer'' to overcome static generalizability limitations.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly summarize clinical evidence, where a claim's weight depends on how strongly it is supported. Yet these models convey confidence poorly, and properties they never state, such as truth, are often readable from their activations. Whether a clinical model registers evidence strength, distinct from truth, and states it when asked is untested, and any such signal could be lexical. We compiled 45,134 clinical claims from six public sources, harmonized 20,611 into a four-level evidence grade under three independent frameworks, and tested 22 local, open-weight LLMs from several developers (0.6-70 billion parameters; general, medical, and reasoning), with lexical, truth, and cross-framework controls. A linear estimator recovered the grade in every model (median AUROC 71.8), yet decodability did not rise with scale and was weakest in reasoning models. The grade the models stated fell to chance, 25-27 percentage points below the estimator. The recoverable signal was largely lexical and did not transfer across topics or frameworks, yet it was distinct from factual truth and still flagged weakly supported claims (AUROC 69.2). Clinical LLMs thus carry an ordered evidence-strength signal they do not express, so their stated grades fail to convey a claim's support even when it is recoverable from their representations and text.

Thousands of diverse benchmarks have been developed to measure the quality of large language models (LLMs). Yet prior work has demonstrated that LLM performance is often sufficiently explained by a small set of latent factors, or abilities. This suggests the potential for more efficient and principled benchmarking, but it remains difficult to compare the quality of different methods. Motivated by predictive validity, we argue that the quality of a benchmarking framework should be grounded in how efficiently it enables the prediction of model performance on unseen tasks. To analyze this objective, we collect the "Wide-scale Item Level Dataset" (WILD), a dataset of item-model response pairs, comprising evaluations of 65 models on 109,564 unique items spanning 163 tasks drawn from 27 datasets. This dataset enables the first analysis of how different techniques can predict a model's performance on a large, diverse collection of unseen tasks under different budget constraints. We demonstrate that combining a modified multidimensional item response theory (IRT) model with adaptive item selection driven by optimal experimental design can predict performance on 112 held-out benchmark tasks with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 7%, and can do so after observing only 16 items. We further demonstrate that incorporating cost-aware discount factors into our selection criteria can reduce the total tokens needed to reach 7% MAE from 141,000 tokens to only 22,000, an 85% reduction in evaluation cost.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Classic results establish that encouraging predictive diversity improves performance in ensembles of low-capacity models, e.g. through bagging or boosting. Here we demonstrate that these intuitions do not apply to high-capacity neural network ensembles (deep ensembles), and in fact the opposite is often true. In a large scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, we examine a variety of interventions that trade off component model performance for predictive diversity. While such interventions can improve the performance of small neural network ensembles (in line with standard intuitions), they harm the performance of the large neural network ensembles most often used in practice. Surprisingly, we also find that discouraging predictive diversity is often benign in large-network ensembles, fully inverting standard intuitions. Even when diversity-promoting interventions do not sacrifice component model performance (e.g. using heterogeneous architectures and training paradigms), we observe an opportunity cost associated with pursuing increased predictive diversity. Examining over 1000 ensembles, we observe that the performance benefits of diverse architectures/training procedures are easily dwarfed by the benefits of simply using higher-capacity models, despite the fact that such higher capacity models often yield significantly less predictive diversity. Overall, our findings demonstrate that standard intuitions around predictive diversity, originally developed for low-capacity ensembles, do not directly apply to modern high-capacity deep ensembles. This work clarifies fundamental challenges to the goal of improving deep ensembles by making them more diverse, while suggesting an alternative path: simply forming ensembles from ever more powerful (and less diverse) component models.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of +34.69% versus -35.17%) and in the best case (+36.93% versus +5.56%). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule - namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions - for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.