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Nov 11

Who Is Your Agent Serving? Provider-Side Indirect Prompt Injection in Proactive Agents

Proactive personal agents increasingly decide what to recommend, how to personalize advice, and what follow-up assistance to offer, creating a new user-decision attack surface for provider-side indirect prompt injection. We show that an external provider need not access private user context, compromise the agent, or gain additional permissions: by controlling only content associated with its own target, it can redirect an otherwise benign agent to advance that target, recruit legitimately available user context to justify it, and proactively reduce the friction of adoption. We characterize this failure mode through Target Control, Private Binding, and Prospective Support, which respectively steer what the agent advances, how it connects the target to the user, and what target-specific assistance it offers next. Across three proactive-agent environments and six simulated user models, the full attack increases target authorization in all tested environment-user-model combinations, with a macro gain of up to 77.4 percentage points. Controlled replay shows that correct user-target binding is more consequential than additional proposal detail alone, while a multi-turn extension reveals that provider objectives can remain influential even without final authorization by reshaping how the agent responds to user constraints and resistance. These findings expose a broader trust boundary: capabilities designed to serve the user can be redirected toward objectives originating outside the user-agent relationship.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 3

Automated Chronotyping from a Daily Calendar using Machine Learning

Chronotype compares individuals' circadian phase to others. It contextualizes mental health risk assessments and detection of social jet lag, which can hamper mental health and cognitive performance. Existing ways of determining chronotypes, such as Dim Light Melatonin Onset (DLMO) or the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ), are limited by being discrete in time and time-intensive to update, meaning they rarely capture real-world variability across time. Chronotyping users based on a daily planner app might augment existing methods to enable assessment continuously and at scale. This paper reports the construction of a supervised binary classifier that attempts to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. 1,460 registered users from the Owaves app opted in by filling out the MEQ survey between July 14, 2022, and May 1, 2023. 142 met the eligibility criteria. We used multimodal app data from individuals identified as morning and evening types from MEQ data, basing the classifier on app time series data. This included daily timing for 8 main lifestyle activity types: exercise, sleep, social interactions, meal times, relaxation, work, play, and miscellaneous, as defined in the app. The timing of activities showed substantial change across time, as well as heterogeneity by activity type. Our novel chronotyping classifier was able to predict the morningness and eveningness of its users with an ROC AUC of 0.70. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of chronotype classification from multimodal, real-world app data, while highlighting fundamental challenges to applying discrete and fixed labels to complex, dynamic, multimodal behaviors. Our findings suggest a potential for real-time monitoring of shifts in chronotype specific to different causes (i.e. types of activity), which could feasibly be used to support future, prospective mental health support research.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 8, 2024

COVID-BLUeS -- A Prospective Study on the Value of AI in Lung Ultrasound Analysis

As a lightweight and non-invasive imaging technique, lung ultrasound (LUS) has gained importance for assessing lung pathologies. The use of Artificial intelligence (AI) in medical decision support systems is promising due to the time- and expertise-intensive interpretation, however, due to the poor quality of existing data used for training AI models, their usability for real-world applications remains unclear. In a prospective study, we analyze data from 63 COVID-19 suspects (33 positive) collected at Maastricht University Medical Centre. Ultrasound recordings at six body locations were acquired following the BLUE protocol and manually labeled for severity of lung involvement. Several AI models were applied and trained for detection and severity of pulmonary infection. The severity of the lung infection, as assigned by human annotators based on the LUS videos, is not significantly different between COVID-19 positive and negative patients (p = 0.89). Nevertheless, the predictions of image-based AI models identify a COVID-19 infection with 65% accuracy when applied zero-shot (i.e., trained on other datasets), and up to 79% with targeted training, whereas the accuracy based on human annotations is at most 65%. Multi-modal models combining images and CBC improve significantly over image-only models. Although our analysis generally supports the value of AI in LUS assessment, the evaluated models fall short of the performance expected from previous work. We find this is due to 1) the heterogeneity of LUS datasets, limiting the generalization ability to new data, 2) the frame-based processing of AI models ignoring video-level information, and 3) lack of work on multi-modal models that can extract the most relevant information from video-, image- and variable-based inputs. To aid future research, we publish the dataset at: https://github.com/NinaWie/COVID-BLUES.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 9, 2025

Before the Action: Benchmarking LLMs on Prospective Hypothesis Discovery

Large language models (LLMs) excel at answering pre-specified questions, yet their ability to navigate the open-ended, pre-conclusion stage of discovery remains largely unmeasured. We introduce Prospective Hypothesis Discovery (PHD), which asks models to autonomously construct grounded, discriminative, and testable hypothesis spaces from inconclusive evidence, including anomalous observations and fragmented records, to guide subsequent investigation. To evaluate this capability, we introduce HypoArena, comprising HypoData, a benchmark of 988 cases across six scientific and analytical domains, and HypoEval, an evaluation framework for open-ended hypothesis sets. To construct HypoData at scale, we propose Retrospective Context Regression, a Forge--Audit pipeline that reconstructs pre-conclusion contexts from completed expert documents by removing explicit conclusions, target hypotheses, and retrospective causal attributions while preserving the factual substrate. Because PHD admits multiple valid outputs, HypoEval combines bidirectional pairwise judgments with Bradley--Terry--Davidson aggregation for ranking and six-dimensional rubric scoring for diagnosis. Experiments on 15 frontier LLMs reveal clear capability stratification and model-dependent effects of structured analytical skills, with gains for several lower-performing models on HypoArena but regressions for other systems, including a top-performing model. Compared with absolute rubric scoring, arena evaluation resolves finer-grained differences among models, with aggregated rankings showing strong agreement with human experts and an independent judge. Together, these results support treating PHD as a distinct target for evaluating how LLMs formulate investigative directions when final conclusions are withheld. Our code and data are publicly available at github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena and github.com/SKYLENAGE-AI/HypoArena.

  • 18 authors
·
Jul 16

The Metacognitive Monitoring Battery: A Cross-Domain Benchmark for LLM Self-Monitoring

We introduce a cross-domain behavioural assay of monitoring-control coupling in LLMs, grounded in the Nelson and Narens (1990) metacognitive framework and applying human psychometric methodology to LLM evaluation. The battery comprises 524 items across six cognitive domains (learning, metacognitive calibration, social cognition, attention, executive function, prospective regulation), each grounded in an established experimental paradigm. Tasks T1-T5 were pre-registered on OSF prior to data collection; T6 was added as an exploratory extension. After every forced-choice response, dual probes adapted from Koriat and Goldsmith (1996) ask the model to KEEP or WITHDRAW its answer and to BET or decline. The critical metric is the withdraw delta: the difference in withdrawal rate between incorrect and correct items. Applied to 20 frontier LLMs (10,480 evaluations), the battery discriminates three profiles consistent with the Nelson-Narens architecture: blanket confidence, blanket withdrawal, and selective sensitivity. Accuracy rank and metacognitive sensitivity rank are largely inverted. Retrospective monitoring and prospective regulation appear dissociable (r = .17, 95% CI wide given n=20; exemplar-based evidence is the primary support). Scaling on metacognitive calibration is architecture-dependent: monotonically decreasing (Qwen), monotonically increasing (GPT-5.4), or flat (Gemma). Behavioural findings converge structurally with an independent Type-2 SDT approach, providing preliminary cross-method construct validity. All items, data, and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/metacognitive-monitoring-battery.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 16

Machine Learning-Assisted Recurrence Prediction for Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Background: Stratifying cancer patients according to risk of relapse can personalize their care. In this work, we provide an answer to the following research question: How to utilize machine learning to estimate probability of relapse in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer patients? Methods: For predicting relapse in 1,387 early-stage (I-II), non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the Spanish Lung Cancer Group data (65.7 average age, 24.8% females, 75.2% males) we train tabular and graph machine learning models. We generate automatic explanations for the predictions of such models. For models trained on tabular data, we adopt SHAP local explanations to gauge how each patient feature contributes to the predicted outcome. We explain graph machine learning predictions with an example-based method that highlights influential past patients. Results: Machine learning models trained on tabular data exhibit a 76% accuracy for the Random Forest model at predicting relapse evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation (model was trained 10 times with different independent sets of patients in test, train and validation sets, the reported metrics are averaged over these 10 test sets). Graph machine learning reaches 68% accuracy over a 200-patient, held-out test set, calibrated on a held-out set of 100 patients. Conclusions: Our results show that machine learning models trained on tabular and graph data can enable objective, personalised and reproducible prediction of relapse and therefore, disease outcome in patients with early-stage NSCLC. With further prospective and multisite validation, and additional radiological and molecular data, this prognostic model could potentially serve as a predictive decision support tool for deciding the use of adjuvant treatments in early-stage lung cancer. Keywords: Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer, Tumor Recurrence Prediction, Machine Learning

  • 17 authors
·
Nov 16, 2022

Promoting AI Literacy in Higher Education: Evaluating the IEC-V1 Chatbot for Personalized Learning and Educational Equity

The unequal distribution of educational opportunities carries the risk of having a long-term negative impact on general social peace, a country's economy and basic democratic structures. In contrast to this observable development is the rapid technological progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Progress makes it possible to solve various problems in the field of education as well. In order to effectively exploit the advantages that arise from the use of AI, prospective teacher training students need appropriate AI skills, which must already be taught during their studies. In a first step, the added value of this technology will be demonstrated using a concrete example. This article is therefore about conducting an exploratory pilot study to test the Individual Educational Chatbot (IEC-V1) prototype, in which the levels can be individually determined in order to generate appropriate answers depending on the requirements. The results show that this is an important function for prospective teachers, and that there is great interest in taking a closer look at this technology in order to be able to better support learners in the future. The data shows that experience has already been gained with chatbots, but that there is still room for improvement. It also shows that IEC-V1 is already working well. The knowledge gained will be used for the further development of the prototype to further improve the usability of the chatbot. Overall, it is shown that useful AI applications can be effectively integrated into learning situations even without proprietary systems and that important data protection requirements can be complied with.

  • 1 authors
·
Dec 4, 2024

Cardiac-CLIP: A Vision-Language Foundation Model for 3D Cardiac CT Images

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable potential in medical domain. However, their application to complex cardiovascular diagnostics remains underexplored. In this paper, we present Cardiac-CLIP, a multi-modal foundation model designed for 3D cardiac CT images. Cardiac-CLIP is developed through a two-stage pre-training strategy. The first stage employs a 3D masked autoencoder (MAE) to perform self-supervised representation learning from large-scale unlabeled volumetric data, enabling the visual encoder to capture rich anatomical and contextual features. In the second stage, contrastive learning is introduced to align visual and textual representations, facilitating cross-modal understanding. To support the pre-training, we collect 16641 real clinical CT scans, supplemented by 114k publicly available data. Meanwhile, we standardize free-text radiology reports into unified templates and construct the pathology vectors according to diagnostic attributes, based on which the soft-label matrix is generated to supervise the contrastive learning process. On the other hand, to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of Cardiac-CLIP, we collect 6,722 real-clinical data from 12 independent institutions, along with the open-source data to construct the evaluation dataset. Specifically, Cardiac-CLIP is comprehensively evaluated across multiple tasks, including cardiovascular abnormality classification, information retrieval and clinical analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that Cardiac-CLIP achieves state-of-the-art performance across various downstream tasks in both internal and external data. Particularly, Cardiac-CLIP exhibits great effectiveness in supporting complex clinical tasks such as the prospective prediction of acute coronary syndrome, which is notoriously difficult in real-world scenarios.

  • 23 authors
·
Jul 29, 2025

Performance Scaling via Optimal Transport: Enabling Data Selection from Partially Revealed Sources

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

HackerSignal: A Large-Scale Multi-Source Dataset Linking Hacker Community Discourse to the CVE Vulnerability Lifecycle

We introduce HackerSignal, a benchmark for temporal out-of-distribution cyber threat intelligence (CTI) and cross-source CVE linkage. HackerSignal aggregates 7.45 million exact-deduplicated documents from 64 public forum/source identifiers spanning eight source layers and a 36-year window (1990-2026). In contrast to other publicly accessible cybersecurity datasets, HackerSignal is among the first public benchmark datasets that maps the full potential exploit to vulnerability trajectory from hacker community discourse, exploit databases with working and proof of concept exploits, vulnerability advisories, and software fix commits. HackerSignal creates these linkages through a shared CVE identifier space while preserving source-specific release modes to support a range of unique Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled cybersecurity analytics tasks. In this paper, we summarize HackerSignal and illustrate three selected benchmark tasks it uniquely supports: (1) CVE linkage retrieval (cross-source temporal out-of-distribution entity grounding); (2) exploit type classification (8-class vulnerability type prediction with temporal OOD evaluation); and (3) temporal generalization (prospective CVE-disjoint evaluation where C_train and C_test are disjoint). All tasks use temporal splits to evaluate prospective generalization. We release source-shortcut and leakage diagnostics, manual-audit packets, a datasheet, and a release-governance addendum to support the dissemination of the dataset. HackerSignal's code, data, and Croissant metadata are available at hf.co/datasets/BenAmpel/HackerSignal (data) and github.com/BenAmpel/hackersignal (code).

  • 2 authors
·
May 3

Beyond Feeling Better: Capability-Sustaining Emotional Dialogue as a Longitudinal Research Paradigm

Emotional dialogue research includes two influential strategy traditions. Empathetic dialogue prioritizes understanding a speaker's emotional experience. Emotional support conversation selects and sequences support for the seeker's current needs. Sustained use introduces a further goal. Effective support should sustain users' capacities for emotion regulation, coping, self-endorsed decisions, and social connection across the interaction lifecycle. We propose capability-sustaining emotional dialogue (CSED) as a longitudinal research paradigm that aligns supportive strategy with this goal and organizes data, models, system design, evaluation, and governance around repeated use, non-use, transition, and termination. A targeted literature-and-corpus audit motivates this position. In a PRISMA-ScR-guided sample, 95% of 60 system-building papers pursue relief-oriented goals. None evaluates capability or longitudinal outcomes, and only 1 considers dependency, autonomy, or termination risk. In 300 ESConv supporter turns, capability-relevant functions appear in 43.0%, while generic suggestions account for 22.0%, compared with 4.0% reappraisal, 6.7% self-efficacy support, and 0.3% boundary behavior. We release a protocol for extending the audit to model behavior. An illustrative process model connects latent user capability to six design commitments, four evaluation timescales, and lifecycle constraints. The resulting agenda makes CSED testable across data, policy design, training, evaluation, and governance.

kinamind KinaMind
·
Jul 29 2

Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 3