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Oct 22

SERA: Soft-Verified Efficient Repository Agents

Open-weight coding agents should hold a fundamental advantage over closed-source systems: they can be specialized to private codebases, encoding repository-specific information directly in their weights. Yet the cost and complexity of training has kept this advantage theoretical. We show it is now practical. We present Soft-Verified Efficient Repository Agents (SERA), an efficient method for training coding agents that enables the rapid and cheap creation of agents specialized to private codebases. Using only supervised finetuning (SFT), SERA achieves state-of-the-art results among fully open-source (open data, method, code) models while matching the performance of frontier open-weight models like Devstral-Small-2. Creating SERA models is 26x cheaper than reinforcement learning and 57x cheaper than previous synthetic data methods to reach equivalent performance. Our method, Soft Verified Generation (SVG), generates thousands of trajectories from a single code repository. Combined with cost-efficiency, this enables specialization to private codebases. Beyond repository specialization, we apply SVG to a larger corpus of codebases, generating over 200,000 synthetic trajectories. We use this dataset to provide detailed analysis of scaling laws, ablations, and confounding factors for training coding agents. Overall, we believe our work will greatly accelerate research on open coding agents and showcase the advantage of open-source models that can specialize to private codebases. We release SERA as the first model in Ai2's Open Coding Agents series, along with all our code, data, and Claude Code integration to support the research community.

ai21labs AI21
·
Jan 28 2

Sera: Semantic Representation Aggregation with Knowledge and LLM for Reliable and Interpretable Battery Health Forecasting

Battery state of health (SoH) forecasting is important for battery management, but remains challenging due to nonlinear degradation and heterogeneity across batteries. Existing data-driven approaches primarily use temporal models to learn from numerical battery time series, and higher-level degradation characteristics are often not explicitly represented. These characteristics, however, can provide degradation guidance to support reliable forecasting and make the influence of degradation more interpretable. In this paper, we propose Sera, a semantic representation aggregation framework that complements temporal modelling with degradation semantics. Guided by battery domain expertise, Sera extracts degradation semantics from time series and constructs two complementary representations using rule-based knowledge and LLM-based interpretation. The representations are independently encoded and integrated with the representation learned by temporal models through gated aggregations. Experiments on the mainstream benchmark across multiple prediction horizons and different temporal models show that Sera consistently improves forecasting performance, achieving up to a 37.3% reduction in prediction error over the temporal baseline and enhanced generalizability. Counterfactual analysis examines how forecasts respond to changes in degradation semantics to assess interpretability. The results show that prediction responses are consistent with the meanings of key degradation descriptors across tested horizons. Together, these findings demonstrate that structured degradation semantics and effective aggregation can improve forecasting accuracy and support reliable and interpretable battery health forecasting for advanced battery management.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 11

AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 3, 2023

Stress-Testing the Reasoning Competence of LLMs With Proofs Under Minimal Formalism

We introduce ProofGrid, a benchmark suite for evaluating LLM reasoning through machine-checkable proofs rather than final answers alone. ProofGrid contains 15 tasks spanning proof writing, proof checking, proof masking, and proof gap-filling. Tasks are expressed in minimal formal notation, especially NDL, a compact natural-deduction language that fits in short prompts and supports precise, auditable verification. This yields mechanical, reproducible, and fine-grained evaluation rather than judgments by humans or LLMs. ProofGrid covers a calibrated difficulty spectrum, from foundational reasoning tests to structurally rich challenge tasks that no current model solves, while minimizing reliance on domain knowledge, solver delegation, and long-context artifacts. We also develop a comparative framework for reasoning benchmarks and use it to situate ProofGrid relative to existing work in terms of representation, verification guarantees, and reasoning depth. Methodologically, we introduce an instrumented proof-checking pipeline that tolerates minor surface deviations while locating the first substantive reasoning failure, improving measurement resolution and separating proof planning from low-level execution noise. Using this pipeline, we evaluate a broad range of open and proprietary models. Results show rapid progress but substantial remaining limits: frontier models perform well on several foundational tasks, yet difficult tasks, especially those requiring global combinatorial reasoning or low-level proof synthesis, remain far from solved. We also identify epistemic instability, where models generate flawed proofs yet correctly reject those local inferences in isolation, and formalize this with an Epistemic Stability Index. Finally, we complement accuracy with 2PL IRT analyses, Wright maps, and a normalized task-discrimination measure based on Fisher information.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 6 2

Heterogeneous Decentralized Diffusion Models

Training frontier-scale diffusion models often requires substantial computational resources concentrated in tightly-coupled clusters, limiting participation to well-resourced institutions. While Decentralized Diffusion Models (DDM) enable training multiple experts in isolation, existing approaches require 1176 GPU-days and homogeneous training objectives across all experts. We present an efficient framework that dramatically reduces resource requirements while supporting heterogeneous training objectives. Our approach combines three key contributions: (1) a heterogeneous decentralized training paradigm that allows experts to use different objectives (DDPM and Flow Matching), unified at inference time without any retraining; (2) pretrained checkpoint conversion from ImageNet-DDPM to Flow Matching objectives, accelerating convergence and enabling initialization without objective-specific pretraining; and (3) PixArt-α's efficient AdaLN-Single architecture, reducing parameters while maintaining quality. Experiments on LAION-Aesthetics show that, relative to the training scale reported for prior DDM work, our approach reduces the compute by 16times and data by 14times. Under aligned inference settings, our heterogeneous configuration achieves better FID and higher intra-prompt diversity than the homogeneous baseline. By eliminating synchronization requirements and enabling mixed DDPM/FM objectives, our framework makes decentralized generative model training accessible to contributors with single GPUs requiring only 24--48GB VRAM.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 30

Adversarial Training for High-Stakes Reliability

In the future, powerful AI systems may be deployed in high-stakes settings, where a single failure could be catastrophic. One technique for improving AI safety in high-stakes settings is adversarial training, which uses an adversary to generate examples to train on in order to achieve better worst-case performance. In this work, we used a safe language generation task (``avoid injuries'') as a testbed for achieving high reliability through adversarial training. We created a series of adversarial training techniques -- including a tool that assists human adversaries -- to find and eliminate failures in a classifier that filters text completions suggested by a generator. In our task, we determined that we can set very conservative classifier thresholds without significantly impacting the quality of the filtered outputs. We found that adversarial training increased robustness to the adversarial attacks that we trained on -- doubling the time for our contractors to find adversarial examples both with our tool (from 13 to 26 minutes) and without (from 20 to 44 minutes) -- without affecting in-distribution performance. We hope to see further work in the high-stakes reliability setting, including more powerful tools for enhancing human adversaries and better ways to measure high levels of reliability, until we can confidently rule out the possibility of catastrophic deployment-time failures of powerful models.

  • 12 authors
·
May 3, 2022

AI-GenBench: A New Ongoing Benchmark for AI-Generated Image Detection

The rapid advancement of generative AI has revolutionized image creation, enabling high-quality synthesis from text prompts while raising critical challenges for media authenticity. We present Ai-GenBench, a novel benchmark designed to address the urgent need for robust detection of AI-generated images in real-world scenarios. Unlike existing solutions that evaluate models on static datasets, Ai-GenBench introduces a temporal evaluation framework where detection methods are incrementally trained on synthetic images, historically ordered by their generative models, to test their ability to generalize to new generative models, such as the transition from GANs to diffusion models. Our benchmark focuses on high-quality, diverse visual content and overcomes key limitations of current approaches, including arbitrary dataset splits, unfair comparisons, and excessive computational demands. Ai-GenBench provides a comprehensive dataset, a standardized evaluation protocol, and accessible tools for both researchers and non-experts (e.g., journalists, fact-checkers), ensuring reproducibility while maintaining practical training requirements. By establishing clear evaluation rules and controlled augmentation strategies, Ai-GenBench enables meaningful comparison of detection methods and scalable solutions. Code and data are publicly available to ensure reproducibility and to support the development of robust forensic detectors to keep pace with the rise of new synthetic generators.

  • 8 authors
·
Apr 29, 2025

One Model to Loop Them All: Elastic Latent Recurrence for Language Models

A latent recurrent language model applies a shared block of layers repeatedly, so one checkpoint can trade inference compute for accuracy by changing the loop count. At one loop, however, such models typically fall well short of a non-recurrent model of the same size, a one-loop tax that makes a separate non-recurrent model the better choice whenever latency matters. We present Elastic Latent Recurrence (ELR), a recipe for training looped language models without this tax. At one loop, an ELR model costs the same to serve as a non-recurrent model of the same size and, trained on the same data, reaches similar accuracy. Each additional loop then buys more accuracy for more inference compute. Three choices make this work: a gated state update with a learned step size, loop counts mixed within each optimizer update, and conditioning each pass on its loop index and budget. The first two preserve one-loop accuracy, and the third lowers loss at every additional loop. Mixed depths can be introduced late in pretraining to limit the added training cost, and with zero-initialized conditioning added at the switch, this late schedule reaches lower loss than mixed-depth training from scratch. In MoE models, reusing first-loop expert routes on later loops cuts mixed-depth update time by 11.7% with no measurable change in accuracy. At inference, keeping only the last loop's attention KV cache holds attention KV memory at its one-loop level while retaining most of the gain from additional loops. On 4B dense and 30B-A3B MoE hybrid models, ELR at one loop is 0.52 points below and 1.04 points above its matched baseline on a ten-task average, and four loops add 7.25 and 4.75 points. Carried through post-training, the recipe yields Koi-4B, a single checkpoint that scores an estimated 18 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at one loop, matching Qwen3.5-4B, and 29 at four loops.

nvidia NVIDIA
·
Oct 7 3

Beyond the Visible: Jointly Attending to Spectral and Spatial Dimensions with HSI-Diffusion for the FINCH Spacecraft

Satellite remote sensing missions have gained popularity over the past fifteen years due to their ability to cover large swaths of land at regular intervals, making them ideal for monitoring environmental trends. The FINCH mission, a 3U+ CubeSat equipped with a hyperspectral camera, aims to monitor crop residue cover in agricultural fields. Although hyperspectral imaging captures both spectral and spatial information, it is prone to various types of noise, including random noise, stripe noise, and dead pixels. Effective denoising of these images is crucial for downstream scientific tasks. Traditional methods, including hand-crafted techniques encoding strong priors, learned 2D image denoising methods applied across different hyperspectral bands, or diffusion generative models applied independently on bands, often struggle with varying noise strengths across spectral bands, leading to significant spectral distortion. This paper presents a novel approach to hyperspectral image denoising using latent diffusion models that integrate spatial and spectral information. We particularly do so by building a 3D diffusion model and presenting a 3-stage training approach on real and synthetically crafted datasets. The proposed method preserves image structure while reducing noise. Evaluations on both popular hyperspectral denoising datasets and synthetically crafted datasets for the FINCH mission demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.

  • 29 authors
·
Jun 15, 2024

DICES Dataset: Diversity in Conversational AI Evaluation for Safety

Machine learning approaches often require training and evaluation datasets with a clear separation between positive and negative examples. This risks simplifying and even obscuring the inherent subjectivity present in many tasks. Preserving such variance in content and diversity in datasets is often expensive and laborious. This is especially troubling when building safety datasets for conversational AI systems, as safety is both socially and culturally situated. To demonstrate this crucial aspect of conversational AI safety, and to facilitate in-depth model performance analyses, we introduce the DICES (Diversity In Conversational AI Evaluation for Safety) dataset that contains fine-grained demographic information about raters, high replication of ratings per item to ensure statistical power for analyses, and encodes rater votes as distributions across different demographics to allow for in-depth explorations of different aggregation strategies. In short, the DICES dataset enables the observation and measurement of variance, ambiguity, and diversity in the context of conversational AI safety. We also illustrate how the dataset offers a basis for establishing metrics to show how raters' ratings can intersects with demographic categories such as racial/ethnic groups, age groups, and genders. The goal of DICES is to be used as a shared resource and benchmark that respects diverse perspectives during safety evaluation of conversational AI systems.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 19, 2023

General Scales Unlock AI Evaluation with Explanatory and Predictive Power

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

  • 26 authors
·
Mar 8, 2025

Bridging Legal Knowledge and AI: Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Vector Stores, Knowledge Graphs, and Hierarchical Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Agentic Generative AI, powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), Knowledge Graphs (KGs), and Vector Stores (VSs), represents a transformative technology applicable to specialized domains such as legal systems, research, recommender systems, cybersecurity, and global security, including proliferation research. This technology excels at inferring relationships within vast unstructured or semi-structured datasets. The legal domain here comprises complex data characterized by extensive, interrelated, and semi-structured knowledge systems with complex relations. It comprises constitutions, statutes, regulations, and case law. Extracting insights and navigating the intricate networks of legal documents and their relations is crucial for effective legal research. Here, we introduce a generative AI system that integrates RAG, VS, and KG, constructed via Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), to enhance legal information retrieval and AI reasoning and minimize hallucinations. In the legal system, these technologies empower AI agents to identify and analyze complex connections among cases, statutes, and legal precedents, uncovering hidden relationships and predicting legal trends-challenging tasks that are essential for ensuring justice and improving operational efficiency. Our system employs web scraping techniques to systematically collect legal texts, such as statutes, constitutional provisions, and case law, from publicly accessible platforms like Justia. It bridges the gap between traditional keyword-based searches and contextual understanding by leveraging advanced semantic representations, hierarchical relationships, and latent topic discovery. This framework supports legal document clustering, summarization, and cross-referencing, for scalable, interpretable, and accurate retrieval for semi-structured data while advancing computational law and AI.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 27, 2025

Large Language Models Generate Harmful Responses Using a Distinct Mechanism, Shared Across Harm Types

Large language models remain vulnerable to jailbreaks that elicit harmful responses, yet the mechanism behind harmful response generation is poorly understood. Here, we investigate how this capability is organized within model parameters. We identify and prune parameters that specifically support harmful compliance, providing a direct mechanistic analysis at the parameter level. We find that this capability depends on a sparse set of critical parameters: pruning these parameters substantially reduces harmful compliance while causing only limited degradation in benign capabilities, suggesting that key components of harmful generation are separable from those of general utility. Parameters identified from one harm category also reduce harmful responses in others, indicating components shared across harm types. This separability appears primarily in aligned models, suggesting that alignment training internally reshapes the harmful response mechanism even when behavioral safeguards remain brittle. We further show that harmful response generation is dissociable from the ability to recognize and reason about harmfulness. Finally, we extend our analysis to emergent misalignment and identify a sparse set of parameters contributing to it, with substantial sharing across fine-tuning domains. Together, these results reveal a consistent parameter-level organization underlying unsafe behaviors and point toward more principled interventions for improving model safety.

Predicting Turn-Taking Outcomes in Multi-Party Conversation: Interpretable Modelling of Speech and Gaze Dynamics with Interpersonal Closeness

Smooth speaker transitions are fundamental to effective conversation and rely on an interlocutor's ability to predict when to enter the conversation. This ability depends on accurately interpreting and expressing the verbal and non-verbal cues that signal when a speaker wishes to take or relinquish the floor. The process becomes even more complex in noisy, natural, multi-party settings, with multiple interlocutors available. This study models how gaze and speech, together with perceived interpersonal closeness, signal conversational floor changes in free four-person dialogue. Using the GaMMA corpus, we trained logistic regression models using interpretable, behaviourally motivated features extracted before each turn-taking event to classify floor-transfer outcomes as gaps or overlaps. Predictors included gaze features such as transition motifs and behavioural contrasts, entropy, gaze-based addressee identity, and mutual gaze, alongside speech features derived from speaker loudness, as well as perceived interpersonal closeness (IOS) between speakers. Results show that gaze features capture predictive structure, and that combining them with loudness improves performance (ROC AUC = 0.76 +- 0.04). Loudness reflected speaker control, while gaze dispersion and addressing indexed listener readiness and competitive entry. Performance remained robust across noise conditions, indicating that gaze provides a complementary, noise-resilient cue to turn-taking dynamics.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 27

Lost in Simulation: LLM-Simulated Users are Unreliable Proxies for Human Users in Agentic Evaluations

Agentic benchmarks increasingly rely on LLM-simulated users to scalably evaluate agent performance, yet the robustness, validity, and fairness of this approach remain unexamined. Through a user study with participants across the United States, India, Kenya, and Nigeria, we investigate whether LLM-simulated users serve as reliable proxies for real human users in evaluating agents on τ-Bench retail tasks. We find that user simulation lacks robustness, with agent success rates varying up to 9 percentage points across different user LLMs. Furthermore, evaluations using simulated users exhibit systematic miscalibration, underestimating agent performance on challenging tasks and overestimating it on moderately difficult ones. African American Vernacular English (AAVE) speakers experience consistently worse success rates and calibration errors than Standard American English (SAE) speakers, with disparities compounding significantly with age. We also find simulated users to be a differentially effective proxy for different populations, performing worst for AAVE and Indian English speakers. Additionally, simulated users introduce conversational artifacts and surface different failure patterns than human users. These findings demonstrate that current evaluation practices risk misrepresenting agent capabilities across diverse user populations and may obscure real-world deployment challenges.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 27

RE-Bench: Evaluating frontier AI R&D capabilities of language model agents against human experts

Frontier AI safety policies highlight automation of AI research and development (R&D) by AI agents as an important capability to anticipate. However, there exist few evaluations for AI R&D capabilities, and none that are highly realistic and have a direct comparison to human performance. We introduce RE-Bench (Research Engineering Benchmark, v1), which consists of 7 challenging, open-ended ML research engineering environments and data from 71 8-hour attempts by 61 distinct human experts. We confirm that our experts make progress in the environments given 8 hours, with 82% of expert attempts achieving a non-zero score and 24% matching or exceeding our strong reference solutions. We compare humans to several public frontier models through best-of-k with varying time budgets and agent designs, and find that the best AI agents achieve a score 4x higher than human experts when both are given a total time budget of 2 hours per environment. However, humans currently display better returns to increasing time budgets, narrowly exceeding the top AI agent scores given an 8-hour budget, and achieving 2x the score of the top AI agent when both are given 32 total hours (across different attempts). Qualitatively, we find that modern AI agents possess significant expertise in many ML topics -- e.g. an agent wrote a faster custom Triton kernel than any of our human experts' -- and can generate and test solutions over ten times faster than humans, at much lower cost. We open-source the evaluation environments, human expert data, analysis code and agent trajectories to facilitate future research.

  • 22 authors
·
Nov 22, 2024

MAPS: A Multilingual Benchmark for Global Agent Performance and Security

Agentic AI systems, which build on Large Language Models (LLMs) and interact with tools and memory, have rapidly advanced in capability and scope. Yet, since LLMs have been shown to struggle in multilingual settings, typically resulting in lower performance and reduced safety, agentic systems risk inheriting these limitations. This raises concerns about the global accessibility of such systems, as users interacting in languages other than English may encounter unreliable or security-critical agent behavior. Despite growing interest in evaluating agentic AI, existing benchmarks focus exclusively on English, leaving multilingual settings unexplored. To address this gap, we propose MAPS, a multilingual benchmark suite designed to evaluate agentic AI systems across diverse languages and tasks. MAPS builds on four widely used agentic benchmarks - GAIA (real-world tasks), SWE-bench (code generation), MATH (mathematical reasoning), and the Agent Security Benchmark (security). We translate each dataset into ten diverse languages, resulting in 805 unique tasks and 8,855 total language-specific instances. Our benchmark suite enables a systematic analysis of how multilingual contexts affect agent performance and robustness. Empirically, we observe consistent degradation in both performance and security when transitioning from English to other languages, with severity varying by task and correlating with the amount of translated input. Building on these findings, we provide actionable recommendations to guide agentic AI systems development and assessment under multilingual settings. This work establishes a standardized evaluation framework, encouraging future research towards equitable, reliable, and globally accessible agentic AI. MAPS benchmark suite is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Fujitsu-FRE/MAPS

  • 10 authors
·
May 21, 2025

Pantagruel: Unified Self-Supervised Encoders for French Text and Speech

We release Pantagruel models, a new family of self-supervised encoder models for French text and speech. Instead of predicting modality-tailored targets such as textual tokens or speech units, Pantagruel learns contextualized target representations in the feature space, allowing modality-specific encoders to capture linguistic and acoustic regularities more effectively. Separate models are pre-trained on large-scale French corpora, including Wikipedia, OSCAR and CroissantLLM for text, together with MultilingualLibriSpeech, LeBenchmark, and INA-100k for speech. INA-100k is a newly introduced 100,000-hour corpus of French audio derived from the archives of the Institut National de l'Audiovisuel (INA), the national repository of French radio and television broadcasts, providing highly diverse audio data. We evaluate Pantagruel across a broad range of downstream tasks spanning both modalities, including those from the standard French benchmarks such as FLUE or LeBenchmark. Across these tasks, Pantagruel models show competitive or superior performance compared to strong French baselines such as CamemBERT, FlauBERT, and LeBenchmark2.0, while maintaining a shared architecture that can seamlessly handle either speech or text inputs. These results confirm the effectiveness of feature-space self-supervised objectives for French representation learning and highlight Pantagruel as a robust foundation for multimodal speech-text understanding.

  • 30 authors
·
Jan 9

CORDEX-ML-Bench: A Benchmark for Data-Driven Regional Climate Downscaling -Experiment Design and Overview

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a cost-effective approach to complement dynamical downscaling for producing high-resolution regional climate projections. However, the absence of standardised training and evaluation protocols, applied consistently across multiple domains, continues to hinder meaningful model intercomparison. We introduce CORDEX-ML-Bench, a benchmark aligned with CORDEX, which constitutes the first phase of a community initiative to advance data-driven downscaling toward operational readiness, and complement future dynamical downscaling efforts under CMIP7. The framework targets downscaled daily maximum temperature and precipitation to ~10 km resolution (20x increase) across three pilot regions; European Alps, New Zealand, and Southern Africa. Using a perfect-model experimental design, we evaluate 40 ML configurations developed independently, spanning traditional ML, convolutional U-Nets, vision transformers, graph neural networks, and generative models based on diffusion, flow matching, and generative adversarial networks. Models are trained under two experimental periods, an empirical-statistical downscaling pseudo-reality (historical period only) and Emulator (historical and future periods) -and are evaluated against a core set of metrics developed specifically for assessing downscaling skill. Generative models consistently outperform deterministic approaches for precipitation, better capturing fine-scale variability and extremes. For temperature, the generative advantage narrows and deterministic architectures remain competitive. Models trained solely on the historical period systematically underestimate future climate-change signals while those additionally trained on a future period perform better. These findings raise concerns about historically trained models widely used in an operational setting, underscoring the need for rigorous extrapolation testing.

  • 37 authors
·
Jun 27

Kandinsky 6.0 Video: Foundation Models for Synchronized Video and Audio Generation

We present Kandinsky 6.0 Video, a family of foundation diffusion models for synchronized text-to-audio-video generation, comprising Kandinsky 6.0 Video Lite (3B parameters) and Kandinsky 6.0 Video Pro (29B parameters). Both models generate 5-second video clips with synchronized 44 kHz audio, including lip-sync, in text-to-audio-video (T2AV) and image-to-audio-video (I2AV) modes; a built-in super-resolution model raises the output resolution to Full-HD (1920times1080). Building on the video generation capabilities of Kandinsky 5.0, Kandinsky 6.0 Video employs a dual-stream CrossDiT architecture that connects a pretrained video stream and a newly trained audio stream through bidirectional cross-attention for temporal and semantic alignment. Our continuous pretraining strategy first trains the audio stream from scratch on large-scale audio corpora and then trains both streams jointly on paired audio-video data while preserving unimodal fidelity; pretraining is followed by supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement-learning-based post-training, and distillation. In side-by-side human evaluation, Kandinsky 6.0 Video Pro clearly outperforms its predecessor, Kandinsky 5.0 Video Pro, and remains competitive with leading audio-video generation models, particularly in speech quality. To accelerate open research and deployment in multimedia generation, we release the code, model checkpoints, and diffusers integration under the MIT license.

Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by SOFIA with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 Aug 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 pm 0.0005 hours. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

  • 133 authors
·
Dec 31, 2019